breaking news this hour, in switzerland, the federal reserve chair announcing that the fed is not forecasting or expecting a u.s. recession. >> how worried should we be about an upcoming u.s. recession, given all of the talk in the media, do you see a particular shock that could trigger a recession. >> so we're not forecasting or expecting a recession. as i mentioned, incoming data for the united states suggests that the most likely outlook for the united states economy is still moderate growth, strong labor market and inflation continuing to move back up. i went through the numbers, i'll say a little more about the labor market, payroll jobs are coming in at well above the level that new people are entering the labor market and the labor market is still tightening at the margins. the labor market continues to