Cranes move since these areas are crucial progression resupplied. At the same time, russia is building a Trench Networks so massive. They are visible from outer space and launching nightly air attacks on q of and other cities. Ukraines defense minister says his land is defending not only itself but year and has earned a full membership in nato. Today were asking ukraines counter offensive tenant nice expectations. The hello and welcome to to the fine. It is a pleasure to welcome our guess beginning risk for stuff, right . To who reports from conflict phones including ukraine for the german german news magazine dash e g o. U here been danco is associate per fessor at carter scene university. And how shes and shes also a Research Fellow at the berlin based center for east european and international studies. Joyce and Nick Connelly reports from ukraine for dw, and he joins us today from kids. Great to see you again, nick, and let me start with you and ask you what signs you are seeing there on the ground. That in fact, this long, the way the counter offensive is, is, is now a pending well, we all finally seeing lots of those things on ukraines wish list in terms of west to weapons. Finally, arriving at defense systems, those tanks that were just new on everyones minds for months and see me no progress coming. That finally is materializing as for actual kind of actions of the ground. Weve seen a bit of an attempt by the cranes to attack russian positions on the other side of the New Port River from capstone. But very little in the way of a full scale attack. I think the expectations just all mounting and everyone feels like the training and government now is under the huge pressure to deliver some results, these explosions uh in occupied cry. Me. Whats behind that . I think this is about disrupting rushes, logistics. Its about depriving them of fuel, of the ability to bring in supplies to that garrisons. They have kind of thought that occupied premier was that kind of safe into land. And i think the ukraines approving time and time again that it isnt or kristof whats your impression of morale on the ukrainian side as this counter offensive is impending. What we have the experience in the, at the center of battles i wanna invest, motivates we, under a few, made the sauce the how out want ukrainian soldiers have been in this fighting, which is much more brutal than just a using artillery or do we has not seen them, or what we dont know is the amount of proper planning to have units. They will not be deployed in any offensive because they simply too exhausted box to build up fresh units of the units will participate in this. So we will basically any different theater, and i want to come back to that question of the strength of Ukrainian Forces, but there are reports that in fact ukraine has had a massive recruitment drive to bring in new soldiers. And in fact uh to give them really in depth training. Can you confirm that your yeah, this has happened. And the, the other side of the middle of a stick to do is unit off. And the former, the Territorial Defense groups did with and incorporated into the army, which were based in behold, ended on bus in the south, east zones of hail. That they felt a bit abandoned on neglected that they bore the brand of the fighting and not rotating with units, which we use specifically trained specifically to be used in upcoming offensive. Me are usually let me ask you about reports that they were explosions over the kremlin. Russia is saying that they were launched by ukraine in connection with this impending counter offensive. Does it seem plausible that key has actually, with 6 to attack russia on its own soil . Well, for me is sweater questionnaire valid . Because the extra durations as well, then that is where the tigers. So they dont need any justification for a more intensive attack. Home ukraine, so they, they definitely dont need these. But to you quality an army tries to a total flies civil population, the in russia and to implants. But ive been blessed. Im brought this to some, you know, public mood for the so i cant exclude that ukraine can be the part or full for the separation. But the, i, i would say that the, for me more efficient that these happen in with, but shes sick, a change in russia. Whats happening in cray me out or in the auto flash other than most collection. And because its more like a psychological us. Thank you very much. Lets take a closer look. Now after months of preparation, including recruitment, resupply and training, how well positioned our ukraines forces to make significant gains. We look here at the state of preparations for this long awaited spring offensive. This is the faster pool in russian annex crimea, where a fuel depot was allegedly struck by Ukrainian Drone according to keys, the oil tanks were being used by rushes, black see fleet apparently acts of sabotage and russian supply chains are on the rise at the same time ukrainian soldiers are training for an offensive, most of their tank seen here from the 19 seventys. Their dream machine is the american abrams. Abrams is like comparing a brand new mercedes as class to an old lata. Ukrainian military intelligence is still when a possible recapture of pressure occupied territories this year. But you cream it still faces. Suppression air strikes meant a torpedo. Ukrainian attack plans in the mon missile has struck an apartment building, killing more than 20 civilians. And poplar rod russian cruise missiles have caused severe damage, killing at least 2 people, sabotage drone and missile attacks. Are these the beginning of the offensive . Let me pass that question on to you and let me also get you to comment on the degree to which the ukranian troops are now supplied with the kind of weapon systems that they need to go ahead. You said the tanks are finally there. We heard the, the soldiers in that report comparing their dream tanks, the us abrams to, uh, to what they referred to as their old soviet tanks that were like lod as do they in fact have the kind of modern weapon read. Theyre going to need to but as far as we understand now, the abrams are still on their way. Its the german build left the tanks and some of the british challenges that are already here. And then theres obviously Research Question of the munitions to go with them. Theres been a consistent program through this. Will that western industry part of just assuming you dont understand quite how intensive this war is that they dont kind of get into that. Has that this is a little being fault over a 1000 kilometers, plus, and when you get announcements from kind of western governments offering to send 23000. 00 shelves a month. When this is the kind of quantity gets fired in a day or even less, sometimes that does leave people scratching their heads here in cuba. As for the kind of easy enough, what weve heard some talk figures here and keep saying that they think more or less they have what they need. Because we dont know what it is exactly that planning how big theyre planning to go. And what theyre gonna face on the other side, but there was a sense the often months of dragging their feet of kind of endless political ranking and conflict about western governments refusing it kind of ukraines demands that finally, a bit of kind of dynamism is not picking up and these deliveries are happening in the most structured and more logical with them and it was at the spare parts of being delivered. So that when these Western High Tech weapons are exhausted, often 234 weeks of intense use that they can then be quickly repaired and said back and fort lines. And theyve just been very quick follow up because i know that you have been talking to soldiers on the front line to say they can fight even with old weapons and material. Is that in fact the case . Do you think or are they perhaps getting themselves this . I think we depends what theyre trying to do, but suddenly theyve been doing a very good job of getting the best out of often weapons that are twice their age. I think its also, you know, the case that they dont really have a choice, right. They, they all getting, you know, basically materials are from eastern europe, from countries and still produced a soviet era weaponry. And they dont have the choice of saying, well, id prefer to wait for the western stuff to arrive. Its just not going to happen. I think, oh, this was just being about improvisation about dealing with that relative discrepancy between what they have, what the russians have been trying to find the rest of the week. Points. Kristof earlier this year in germany made headlines by finally committing to deliver those leopards to tanks, that christa that nick referred to. And it also tried to put together a Tank Coalition that included promises from the u. S. To deliver abrams. But also the problem is, is from other europeans who then drag their feet. Where does that stand . Now . What is the situation with regard to these much discuss discoveries deliveries of tax . Well, the number will be small on pain initially hoped for. It could be fixed if you have lots, so t 40 or 70 level palm to things be su, remains to be seen cause as makes sense and the numbers. So small bits, the impact of more down the width and the re, can be seen if they use a very specific main, a full one, the quick offensive and this specific area. But on an 11 q will meet the front line. If you have a 100 legal part, that means one the every 100 kilometers. Um, so its not so much the point to if the numbers on the side or the base i plus what was made possible is its an older function of leo button. The higher numbers would be delivered into for ukraine in military. They have been able to refurbish t 62 t, 64 tanks from the 60s, with the upgraded material, basically from the home depot, from electronic stores. Um, so they can deal with, let me ask you about training because training is obviously key for these new weapon systems that many of the ukrainian soldiers would not have seen before. Do they have adequate training now as they prepare to go into this, this new offensive . What my colleagues here from the experiences of the German Forces of to train us . Yes. But its, its less the question is, has enough that Training Facility has enough training being offered, but how do people pick it up . German civic periods was training the, the often army was never really interested in. The new, the, in the fighting is much as the opinion. So its, its a Mutual Understanding the training is offered, but also the very, very quickly adapt get used to it. And i, a, its dreamily interested in being able to run these machines. Julia, russia was long, sought to have a decisive advantage in terms of the size of its armed forces at the outset of the war, key of talked about a mass thing, a 1000000 strong army, apparently a Major Recruitment drive, as i mentioned earlier, has in fact taken it close to that number. What would you say is the state of morale amongst those Ukrainian Forces . Kristof told us many in fact, at least around by most of are quite exhausted. What is the state of morale as they move towards this new offensive . Thank you for asking, because my nephew, hes in the Ukranian Army now and hes nearby of div cars, so its loaded. Uh mm hm. And then to this place and the, and the morales is very high there. And that i lot of young people because my nephews only 19 years old and that a lot of the young people who joined to queen young are means to join in youre creating an army involuntarily. And with that a liberated here that the, the really eager to be trained and some of them are refusing to get the coffee break, you know, but the, they, they want to, to get know, they just said soon as possible. But really that are a lot of problems with equipment with them, a nation. So its not only about heavy weaponry, but those so to, to gain, you know, the personal stuff. For example, that is the 2nd how much we che, by and for my over in cost. And i know a lot of volunteers from harv give from people. And the people are a collection and lives in money for every day needs that and run them levels among them on thrones. So really its kind of a Civil Society really and will be at the level of morales very high. But i would say that the, when the west coast supplies saw come into your brain, young army, this facilities some notes. So you know, dangerous for, for you quitting and sold service. Because the on the front line to themselves will cover things more secure from, from the back line. And just briefly, if you would, because there have, of course, been many, many, please coming from key of for the west to deliver more and faster. And obviously, some disappointment there. What is, what about among the troops . Do they feel that in essence, western allies have left them left them in the lurch . I would say uh they, they have no choice, but to fight back here though. So its not about the, the lease to, to, to be involved in this war, but the, the, the, the practical flushing army show him that it is larry, you know, cruel war and the actually they, they stand in for the come to be not full key, but as you for the landscape or somebody else, so those they protect in the mothers their families and they have no, and now they chose or chris of what do we know about ukraines aims for the counter offensive . Nick said not all that much. We dont know how far its likely to go. We dont know exactly what form it could take. What are you hearing . Well, i would say can what makes it . Because if we see retrospectively, the most successful offending 50, okay. And the end date, it was a total surprise when everybody was exec, expecting the offensive in to 1000. Its that they liberated all the area around how to give in the far east. So even if we were to gates, amy hills, where it will start, which areas it will targets. I would think that this is rhonda, an attempt to divert attention thing to giving us the real the taste because nothing would be more victory, mental for any success of these offensive if it would be known if it was made public before. So we, we dont know, and we dont think that they will leak. And nick, if i may, a quick look at the russian side, the head of rushes, Wagner Mercenary group, says that he definitely does see signs of a looming ukrainian counter offensive. And he took the opportunity to complain that his forces and how far too little Artillery Ammunition and that in fact if things continue as they are, that he would have to consider withdrawing them. Artillery was long sought to be a very big problem on both sides. What is the situation now at the moment on that score as well . Again, the russians are obviously keeping tight lipped about what they actually have in the storage units. But i think this is also part would be a power struggle between those. Most of the groups are going to be in the most prominent of those and the regular russian army. So theres a sense that he goes in and his troops up being deprived of munition, because they were doing too well. They were getting too much attention and were basically putting the breaking the original mean in the shade, especially in terms of all the kind of criminal politics. So im not sure that actually means that russia is not able to produce more munition university has all the metallurgical facilities has all the factories has basically a soviet era military Industrial Complex that is basically set up for executives kind of war. What they all struggling with is christmas oiled. Anything that involves a bit more technology because they were basically a 100 percent dependent on west and spare parts west and ships and they cant do it on their own us. And. And i want to turn in just a moment to talk about how ukranian citizens are looking towards this calendar offensive. But christopher, if you would just one word once again on expectations, because i saw one quote this week of from a western military expert saying that in his view, the Ukrainian Forces are now the best equipped, best prepared, best trained army in the world, at least for the kind of where theyre fighting would you agree . Uh base the clipped. Yeah. Because still for the front line which in one line would reach from here to instantly. Um, if you have 50 or 100 or 150 legal promptings, this is not sufficient. Plus, you will have to see that the bronze of the equipment is of the age off. When i was younger from the 76 these and you have a few modem ponds. I think we um, of many military officials here in an illusion about what it means to deliver rather small number of, of high tech equipment. If its really in, deployed in the, in an actual battle. Because then it might simply be recommend till after one months or the better of that. Well see a lot of eerie taishan about these pumps. I hope its a 2000 that the barrels of the only 12 months needed to be exchanged. You of course, if the a use for 3, for 5000 shots, every federal needs to get exchange. But in this our, me or simulation in the waste, they never use them so much. So they have a surprise about were wolfram. So now i would not agree with, like, im in the us. Yep. As i just want to say, i think most western generals, german american, british have never been in there before. The war like this. Yeah. They fought against insurgencies and the police. Maybe theyve been on peacekeeping missions, but they didnt me. I only know about these kind of who was from them was from the 2nd to maybe even the 1st world war. So they really are often just not able to cross the scale of vision, the intensity, and what we certainly do also know from those prior conflicts. That is, that its not only the resilience of the armed forces themselves, but also of the Larger Population that will influence the outcome. Both of this counter offensive and of the war as a whole, rushes massive attacks throughout the winter on ukraines Critical Infrastructure on its water, electricity and housing have deprived many citizens of their homes and their livelihoods. Yet they dont appear to have ducted most peoples will to carry on this womans house as being demolished because the damage caused by rushing shells during the battle of her pin was far too great. This hurts a lot. Its like someone ripped out a piece of my heart or soul. And yet many people want to remain in their homeland, including residence, a chest of yard, which rests near the embattled city of buck moved states. And there is a field kitchen in the market where the soldiers eat. We get whatevers left over. They are holding out hope that you create in troops will push the russians back. Ukrainian soldiers enjoy a small diversion with music between compact Operations Team with my mazda, but we just are our culture now more than ever. 3, because were united in a common goal, which is victory, but a more maintaining morale. If thats what these moments are all about. Where do ukrainians draw their strengths from . And let me pass that question right on to you. Yeah. Whats your answer to that . Where do they draw the strength from . What are you hearing from family and friends . Well, my family is in hark, you know, but the also, they have a, i have a lot of and friends cmt of or even installed in the ukraine. And i would say that cohesion, social cohesion and regional cohesion name ukraine, probably the, the highest teen the since the gaining independence in 1991. And actually there are more than 70 percent of people who declare that they try to make the inputs in these resistance with the donation. Mati with the donations come style for a internally displaced the person so that i lot of people who are switching to ukraine. Yeah, if you dont wish to speak russian, especially from the eastern part of your brain, i have these examples in my family. My mom is ethnical russian, but shes speaking only ukrainian now and can see the for self to be ukranian citizen. So the identity to be put in citizen and actually even to be a you wrote in person is increased significantly and they would say that more than 60 percent. So if you queen, yes, can see that that ukraine should resist. So that even without the western, you know, assistance, it wouldnt be in the bonded by less than dollars. And what are the expectations of, of ukraines citizens in regard to the counter offensive to they expect it to be decisive for the war . Or do they have the sense that this war could drag on for quite some time . Well, there is no consensus about 5, call it seem ukraine, them that a lot of maam sen, joke said, because you pronounce kind of a brilliant sense of humor, you know, and its also part of, of the resilience. So for you putting in society, but i would f p a that the according to the decent Public Opinion poll conducted by rosen call center, a 9 to 3 percent so. So youre putting a, they believe in ukrainian victory and about 5050 percent. So half of the people believe that the work would be longer than a year. So people are ready to to, you know, to fly to for a long period with nick that one in for ukrainians is now impoverished. Many live in rubble, as we could see. And that report, whats your impression, how long can people hold out . As certainly sure, living close to the front lines, the meet those people who have lost everything in real estate, businesses looked at homes. But i think actually the kind of surprising reality is that actually you dont see many people in total destitution, most people have already found a way to western europe. So that kind of the refugee state, just as being a real kind of pressure kind of a valve allowed to pressure out and allow people who you dont know what to do. A breather. They can go find, you know, some way to live and be given some kind of benefit, some money to kind of, you know, basically work out what to do next. And then lots of people have moved internally, or as in 2014 years. Looks like im moving to key or from houston, pulse of the country funding businesses. So there is a sense that, you know, the economy is now growing once again, and the people are always going to find some way to keep going, even if theyve lost a lot of that quality of life. And if theyre evenings, crystal very briefly, if you would, our title asks whether the counter offensive can meet expectations. What would be your answer to that very short . It can, if its surprising and if we dont know what it is. So the mystery remains. Thank you very much to all of you for being with us and, and thank you very much to all of our audience for joining in. See the, the, the one continent, 700000000 people with their own personal stories every day likes what europeans fear and what they hold for 90 minutes on d. W. The guardians of truth. 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Our series 40 to answer almost every thing this week on dw, the. This is dw news live from berlin tonight, war crimes, in just as ukraines president calls for special tribunals to try vladimir pool. Told him is lensky. He says that russian president , putin and others responsible for crimes and ukraine must be held accountable