The stage author of the definitive study on soviet russian famine of 1921 to 23, the big show on the American Relief expedition to soviet the big show on bola land, the American Relief expedition to soviet russia in the family of 1921. He also curated two exhibitions dealing with the famine. The 1922 show here entitled deliverance, america and the famine in soviet russia 192123, and at the Hoover Institution that just closed this year, brad plus medicine, american famine relief and soviet russia, 192123. The informative exhibit catalog for the later exhibition is available through the Hoover Institution press. And i would encourage all of you to go online and get a copy. Youll never think of cobbler oil the same way. [laughing] is also a lecturer in history and International Relations at stanford university, a Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution, and your moderator. Please welcome bert patenaude. [applause] so, thank you, tom, for a very generous introduction. Thanks for putting together this panel, which as you are about to see, very interesting. And thanks to you for inviting me to participate. So, and thanks to all of you for coming out today. We have three very interesting speakers, three historians who have a knack for bringing a fresh point of view to familiar topics. Three, one might say, revisionists in the best sense of the word. They question the conventional wisdom. They put it to the test. They force us to question our assumptions about historical events, the way things turn out is not, the remind us, necessarily the way things had to turn out. And, of course, when your subject is Herbert Hoover, and that is to say the hoover of his presidency and postpresidency, being something of a contrarian goes with the territory. And thats a characteristic feature of our three speakers today. So what im going to do is im going to introduce the first two speakers. The third speaker apple introduced after the break that will follow the first two talks. First up is justus doenecke, an emeritus professor of history at the new college of florida where he taught from 19692005. Justice has devoted much of the past 35 years to research and writing on the subject of american isolationism in the years 19311935. His two most recent books, nothing less than war, 2011, and more precious than peace, 2022, deal respectively with americas entry into world war i and its role as a belligerent in that war. Justus received the Arthur S Link prize for documentary editing by the society for historians of American Foreign relations for a book he edited on the american first committee. His book, foreign on the horizon, the challenge to American Intervention 19391941, won the Herbert Hoover book award in the year 2000. Its about american antiinterventionism at the outset of world war ii. The program says, justus probably best known for his writings on the manchurian crisis of 193132, and that will be the focus of his talk today. The second speaker, sean mcmeekin, is the francis lording professor of european history and culture at bard university. Sean, a prolific author, his most recent book, stallings war, a new history of world war ii shifts the focus, the usual focus, from hitler to Joseph Stalin and his war aims. Sean also published in 2011 a book called the russian origins, of the first world war, in which he, taking this revisionist point ofie view, looks to st. Petersburg and russia for the cause of the outbreak of the first world war, not so much to germany and austria as the standard textbooks do. Interesting is that the paperback of the book came out in 2013 just in time to join the abundant crop of books that came up that year marking the centennial of the beginning of world war i. So prominently reviewed, a brilliant stroke for the publisher. And then just a few years later, how does he do this . In 2017 he published a book book called the Russian Revolution, a new history. And again, 2017, the centennial of the Russian Revolution of 1917. Sean is the recipient of several book prices, the arthur good site book prize, the norman the tomlinson junior book prize, and the barber joe the book prize among other honors. Hes a compelling writer and even if you disagree with the point of view, with the argument in the book, you find the writing very sort of muscular and draws you in. Hes one of the best writers in the field of russian soviet history today. It also must be said, and conclusion, that sean is a graduate of stanford university. He got his ba in history there, class of 1996. You can applaud if you want, but first lets call it to the stage, please join in getting a warm welcome to justus doenecke. [applause] well, thank you so much, bert. Bert. Tomnt to begin by thankingan schwartz and the staff of the Hoover Library for the privilege of offering this presentation. Tom has gone way beyond the call of duty in meeting my airline schedule, ungodly hours, Mike Research goes back to making seven when tom felton and bobme would with a major archivists. Lets turn to september 18, 1931, when about 10 p. M. Japanese railroad guards claimed to have heard an explosion on the south manchurian rea road. Explosion took place about thre. The damage from this explosion was quite negligible. A train ran over the tracks soon afterwards. Some call it though the opening shot of world war ii. With the Japanese Army in manchuria known as the quantum army, using the incident to occupy the mentoring city, it also occupied cities 160 miles northeast, 120 miles southeast. Thee japanese Prime Minister immediately ordered his war minister to do Everything Possible to stop the conflict. In the war minister did ask the army to hold to make no further advances. Moreover, he promised the civilian cabinet he would restrain the Japanese Army, and he kept repeating this pledge for days, for weeks, for months, repeating it until it was obvious that even the Central Command couldnt control its own forces in manchuria, forces that are quite popular, quite powerful in their own right, forces that are really an army within an army. Either way, the Japanese Army itself operated independently of the cabinet, as was the soaring german emperor, is responsible only to the emperor. In 1919 a regulation gave it authority to use, and i quote, all means necessary to protect the south Manchurian Railroad that is not hold anything back and the army took the degree at its word. The army in drawing up this blueprint for manchuria does not consult, yet does not consult the chief of the general staff or the minister of war or the foreign secretary or the Prime Minister. The Junior Officers in the Japanese Army are determining japanese policy. The civilians, the top brass are relatively helpless in the whole matter. So look at what the situation is. At the very time when tokyo wants the Japanese Army to pull back, indeed at the very time the war minister is reassuring the civilian government that japan will soon get out, the Kwantung Army is not only doing it, it is outlining plans for public under puppet regime. Only the government in tokyo can do is make your promises. The japanese cabinet promises the world that japan which in return to the Railroad Zone as soon as its rights were secured. And the this is a all of files, all of these gestures does not hinder the Kwantung Army one bit. In other words, the army ignores this is an government. In most countries this wouldve been grounds for courtmartial. No army can run amok of a civilian command. Well, what about chinese resistance . The troops of the local chinese warlord were weak on paper they greatly outnumber the japanese, but they were too disorganized to offer seriousta resistance ad chaconne check out nominal role of chinas olympic hes too busy fighting rebellions in central china. So the Kwantung Army keeps pushing it. There is no effective obstacle in its path. Within two days of further defies the civilian government, the general staff, for occupying the town that is 2125 miles northeast of martin. Two daysay after that the kwantg army decide to set up and independent manchurian regency, i kind of puppet region who would at some local authority. This is the socalled last emperor if youve ever seen the movie. The last of the dynasty with a delightful name of henry. But japan would dominate this new regime. If we control the defense of the country would control the Foreign Policy of the country. If we control the transportation, the communication. The country would have its own name. It would have its own currency, its own postage. Without its own bureaucracy. But every official had the japanese advisor anddv this advisor made the real decisions. And many japanese tea manchuria as crucial. Japan is an depression which, with most of the rest of the world. Manchuria has much of what japan wants. Its got lumber. Its got cold. I am. Its a steal. Its got green. It owns thewh south Manchurian Railroad which is really a Huge Development company. Its not a simple choochoo train, okay . By december 1 the new japanese cabinet and ad new ruling party comes in the power. The party had endorsed expansion in china but most of the ministry, most of the government is military. So the indication is clear, japan is in manchuria tuesday. And for several weeks both the league of nations and the u. S. Believed japans promises that they would get out. They received the promises in good faith. The league takes a few weak actions, makes a few general efforts to show its concern. For example, asked all fighting interleague manchuria, and as as china and japan to mr. For relations and a thought japans retreat would only be a a matr of time. The League Season reason to invoke its own covenant. I document the call for coercive measures in thent event of international aggression. It sees no reason to invoke the kelloggbriand pact of 1928 renounced war in the language of the pack as an instrument of national policy. In 1920 Frank Kellogg had been u. S. Secretary of state and the French Foreign minister. Herbert Hoover Aubrey has his handss full. So americas policy differs very little from the league. The great crash had taken place close to two earlier part by the fall of 1931, the president at domestic problems in spades. He is facing massive unemployment. He isne facing failing banks and businesses. He is facing a plummeting construction industry. Is facing a declining Gross National product. In short, he has to wrestle with the great depression. And furthermore cooper has bad relations with the press, with powerful insurgents within his own republican party, and with a house of representatives which is democratic. Sometime in the latter half of 1931 he wrote a memo. Neither are our obligations to china nor our interests know our dignity require us to go to war over these questions. These acts do not imperil the freedom of the american people, the economic or moral fiber of our people. I do not propose to sacrifice one American Life for anything short of this. At any rate, he continued, the japanese would never be able to, and i quote, japan if i china, and if they stay long enough they will bein absorbed or expelled by the chinese. At one point he told an aide well just between ourselves it would be, it would not be a bad thing if mr. Jack, his language come should go into manchuria with two thorns on his side, china and the bolsheviks or he would have enough to keep them busy for a while. And hoover realizes that the u. S. Lacks any military means of coercion. The american navy, for example, is far too weak to restrain japan. Now hoover secretary of state is henry stimson. Henry lewis stimson, and stimson is a very epitome of the american establishment. Not just a diplomatic establishment but the establishment, three. His ancestors just didnt fight in the american revolution. King philips war. Stimson itself graduated from an exclusive andover prep school,ar from jail where he was skull and bones, from Harvard Law School in 1897 his partner in the firm of another prominent secretary of state elliott brood, in 1910 he runs unsuccessfully for governor of new york as a republican candidate. Is also President Task secretary of war. 1917 he joined the Army Fighting as a colonel in world war i. He commands and Army Battalion in france. In 1928 hes governor general of the philippines and in septembel friend of the Japanese Foreign minister. So at first as with the powers of the league of nations, stimson is confident that the japanese civilian government can quell what he terms and army mutiny. Besides, stimson thought the japanese had some legitimate grievances aboutut china. He thought the chinese had not been terribly responsible in some of their actions. And on september 27 stimson wrote this in h his diary, which is at yale university. I want to let the japanese know that we are watching them and at the same time do it in such a way which will help foreign minister shintaro who was on the right side and not play into the hands of any nationalist agitators. He does not denounce e japanese action publicly condemnation he feels will only jeopardize chances for peace. He opposes chinas call for an inquiry by the league of nations. He opposes suggestions from the european powers that an american sit the League Council. He refuses to invoke the Howard Bryant anti war which had outlawed war a means of instrument of national policy. He some belligerence to withdraw from the combat. He expresses a hope that japan and china could negotiate without outside interference and all of this. Stimson has president hoovers strong backing. Stimson refuses also to invoke what is called the nine power pact of 22. Now this is an agreement of the nine major powers in the west plus japan that pledges to respect chinas independence and territorial integrity. And the pact also calls for respecting the principle the economic open door. It was an integral part of what historian akira aryeh calls a washington system in some ways a counterpart to the system in europe established in 1919 it was signed and in 1925 in locarno, switzerland, you are seeking to stabilize great power relations in the pacific. You are seeking to sustain the relative status quo. So notice how cautious stimson is he certainly is seeking to confront japan. In midoctober, he and allow a minor u. S. Diplomat to sit with the lead counsel and even in the lead does not accuse japan of violating the kellog pact it just does what its done already it has both nations to stop and it finally sets a for japan to get out november but japan ignores the november 16th deadline. It just keeps pressing. It just keeps penetrating deeper into manchuria. Stimson, by the way, had to support the league deadline. He said that america retains, and i quote, complete independence of judgment at every step. Now, the french and british governments acting in individual capacities put genevas decision aside. Obrien writes a few notes to the japanese, but they just keep pressing forward. And when the League Council does in geneva at november 16th, and when it finds its deadline overlooked, ignored, stimson sends the former Vice President of the u. S. Charles dawes to consult League Leaders informally. And as the league cannot get the japanese out of manchuria and the u. S. Cant get the japanese out of manchuria doors, a league call for an independent investigation to look at the problem. Its an oh trick. Its been used by university faculties, by university from time to time. It gives the appearance of action it doesnt change a god blessed thing. In fact, it was a japanese who originally came up with the suggestion and close to a year later the league did issue a report its the lytton report it offered sensible suggestions of Japanese Special rights interests. The general principle of chinese sovereignty. But japan simply ignored its suggestions and i want to note that its only japanese conquest of cho that turned stimson around that makes them seek for methods of coercion for on january 2nd, 1932, japanese entered what is called chin cho. Now jin. So jin chow is 120 miles southwest of monckton. Its the last outpost of chinese resistance. And shinto is a city with huge residents. There is even a pretense for the japanese government to they are protecting anything here. The chinese are now retreating behind the great wall. Obviously, stimson is attempt to conciliate japan proved futile. Hes forced to consider stronger measures he had drank conciliation. He had gone slow confrontation. And now he saw his policy fail. So japan has to be shown and shown formally that america would not tolerate behavior, that america would not accept her actions. Now stimson decides to meet japans action by withholding diplomatic recognition from Japanese Aggression. This seems like a very shrewd way of doing things. You are protesting against japans. Youre saying the u. S. Will not support it. You might even rally enough of the worlds moral pressure to turn japan back as, Prime Minister of britain Stanley Baldwin said, you will get nothing out of but words. Big words. The french privately assure stimson of their complete accord with its not, but they would make no public statement. And even the chinese were unappreciative. Now, oddly enough, in my research into the public opinion, very few people suggested it seems like such a brilliant idea. No one thought of it. In october 1931, a representative from illinois mentioned it to president in midnovember the more or rather the most widely respected columnist in america a person with greater influence than many senate senators. Walter lippmann had suggested in his newspaper column, and the Hoover Administration. Its a splendid idea. On november 9th, president hoover called it his main weapon, stimson declared. It ought to have a very potent effect once it becomes obvious that the committee of inquiry is not containing japan once it appears that japan is not about to or rather is about cease gyngell, stinson any objection of his advisors. The war had gotten out of control. Japan is seeking the northeast of china, so stimson, his famous note of january seventh. Now what did general seventh note is to first invoke the open policy that is equal commercial opportunity for all nations dealing china and to invoke the calabrian anti war pact. And the january noce says. January 7th note america to acknowledge any new agreement that would at all invade the sovereignty, the independence, the territorial of china, america has no intention of recognizing any situation, any treaty, any agreement brought about means contrary to the kellogg antiwar pact. Obviously, the japanese are not wild about stimson to note the tokyo press, which is government mouthpiece denies that ever sought to occupy chinese territory. It said it had no intention of closing the open door in. Fact it was quite sarcastic, so it pleased that america is sensitive to the exigencies of far eastern questions. Japans foreign minister responds to stimson by pledging for the anti war pact and for the open door, and the British Foreign office has no desire to get into a war with the japanese so it is completely satisfied with japans response. Its not going to support the american declaration of nonrecognition. The british dont want to antagonize japan. They feel the u. S. Has no more business in manchuria than the u. S. Has in britains dealings with india. Besides, the u. S. Is unreliable, able. It cannot keep its word. It hadnt even joined the league of nations. As i quoted Prime Minister, you get nothing out of washington but words. And as i said, the french privately assure stimson of their complete accord. But they no public statement, even the chinese. The press was unappreciative of the claim the american protest had failed to restrain japan. But stimson is pleased he had taken a morally correct position, comparing himself to George Washington century before he wrote in diary, he had raised a standard into which the wise and honest may repair. Indeed, that they speaking through of state William Castle hoover sought to take credit for an recognition as the hoover doctrine, whereas it was increasingly to as the stimson doctrine. And when stimson laid down this famous document of nonrecognition, the policy that has gone down in the history books as the stimson doctrine, he felt he could do it with a great deal of impunity. But every president , or rather every american leader needs a doctrine. Okay . Otherwise youre a nobody. If you dont have a doctrine. So nobody is going to go after stimson on this one. And hes right in feeling this way. My own Research Shows few pressures on the Hoover Administration in this matter the nonrecognition policy taken without any major dissent. Of course, nonrecognition note is ineffective. Well, manchuria lay in japanese hands. The days of the open door are obviously numbered western business. Western western commerce finds itself in threatened by new japanese restrictions in manchuria, and the japanese continue their plans for the separate manchurian state. This puppet regime, the state controlled by the constant army. But japans movement, shinto appears relatively minor compared to its siege of shanghai, which takes place late in january 1932. Shanghai, truly an international city. Its divided into several sectors of the various foreign settlements. Theres a japanese sector, theres french sector, theres a General International sector full of westerners. And a lot of these westerners are a good many americans. A series of had taken place between the dominant chinese population and the japanese section of shanghai. By late january, the japanese commander who is stationed off, warns on his own authority. And this is important. That force might be necessary to protect and property in 27th, the demands of the japanese consul general become an ultimatum chinese city. Officials are given a 22 hour ultimate item to punish chinese rioters. And even though the chinese mayor complied with the demand, the japanese admiral on hand was genuinely convinced that japanese residents in shanghai were endangered. Hes genuinely concerned about. So on midnight of january tapes the admiral ordered an attack and the japanese start the bombing ohip one of the three burros of the chinese of the city. And when a place as large a significant as shanghai gets bombed, its not a case Ground Troops moving over the two Hunger Strike steps so this barren Frontier Land known as manchuria manchuria in some ways similar to warfare, very few casualties relatively few casualties, a very remote area. But shanghai shanghai is densely settled city familiar to many americans. And the American Public is horrified by this mass bombing here. They thought that war had just outlawed by the kellog pact and the press accounts evoked horror, great dismay. This is the first real bombing since world war one. Now, my research to the u. S. Public, to the east asian, spanning 1931 to 3, i find that a shanghai incident that brings out the greatest amount of public comment, the greatest amount of public protest. The New York Times vividly a roar of japanese, the echo of machine gun fire, the scuffling of fleeing, the jarring of men and women as they jam the city streets. An Associated Press dispatch talks of inhabitants that face dilemma of terror. They can either burn to death by remaining in their huts or flee into the open. The enemy japanese bullets are being torn to pieces by, bursting bombs so now has to respond to shanghai as well as to manchuria, stimson immediately, cable said. Foreign minister, the u. S. Cannot watch the shanghai situation with indifference. Within several days, president ordered all available u. S. Naval vessels to china. He also sends thousand army men, 400 marines there. And the fleet has several tasks is to strengthen shanghai sheks hold on his government donner party always a problem as china the chinese are so internally divided. The u. S. Is to help maintain the open door and above all is to protect american lives and property. Now there are some differences with any administration as to the use of these troops. Hoover insisted that americans will not fight asia, will not fight for. So he orders the troops to confine themselves to protecting americans. Stimson believes its important that japan fear the u. S. Here. Troops might help. And this is only time when the Hoover Administration is widely criticized during this crisis. The of the American Fleet to shanghai. There is some real outrage over action. The boston spoke for many newspapers. It said america might be embarking on a hazardous journey. The Baltimore Sun said your set is dollars instead of men too easily could become war with men. The New York Daily News denied that china was worth a single doughboy. William Randolph Hearst leading editorial writer. A man named arthur brisbane, feared any renewal of the crime. My country, right or wrong, take prominent newspaper columnist sir walter lippmann. For example, a man, heywood broun. They did not seek engagement, nor did business journals. You look the wall street journal. It was far from demanding force to protect any markets. It denies that american favors further invention in shanghai. Certain of congress are also vocal in their opposition. Arthur senator of kansas says he opposes the sending of u. S. Troops. American have been accused of involving the u. S. And asian confrontations. But during the manchuria crisis, they too wanted nothing but caution. The labor press is also. Take a publication of the wood wire and metal lasers association or international. It said the masses of the worlds population have again been cast in the role of puppets for the makers of secret intrigue or take a journal called hosiery worker. It accuses hoover and stimson of making war and doing so to defend the bankers and the industrialists. On the hand, there is a small minority of americans who want a u. S. Major action in china. Military action. One is general billy. Billy mitchell, a great advocate of air power. Billy mitchell said its high time the japanese in the far east, who are called. And he went on to say how it could be done . Use 200 american planes to bomb japan itself and this can halt the asian conflict. Within two days mitchell was certainly express an extreme minority opinion among americans. Its doubtful whether he even spoke for the great majority, the great bulk of the military. And stimson is very careful, say publicly the American Fleet is only in shanghai for one mission, and that is to protect lives, to protect american property. Japan however, refused to be cowed. Continues to be indifferent. The league of nations declares it not recognize any Japanese Aggression against china. But thats about it. And all this time, Japanese Forces are marching steadily in manchuria. They even approach the soviet frontier. So the question comes what should the u. S. Do now . We can see by the crisis in shanghai that very few people want american troops in asia. And even if they had wanted the u. S. To engage in scale fighting and if they saw this to be in the American National interest, and even if the league of nations to organize an international force, which it can do under article 16 of the covenant, it would have been very to get the backing of congress. No one in Congress Wants military action. So weve been very hard to raise american support. Any debate in so weve been very hard to raise american support. Any debate in america, therefore, has to involve nonmilitary means of coercion. And onesi finds that in any cris of this nature. There are all kinds of suggestions on how to deal with things. The idea of inviting the signers of the nine power packed. After all, the nine power pack centered on preserving the open door, centered on chinese territorial integrity. If these tenets were ever disputed the treaty calls for full and frank communication between thepo contracting powers concerned. But the japanese could answer, they are not violating anything. Its just a little bit of police work. Japan was communicating frankly. Its just the other powers dont like what japan is communicating. Then there was a proposal of withdrawing the American Ambassador from tokyo. As early as november 9, president hoover had considered this. However, hoover iss something of a realist. He knowss the move would get theresf headlines but one thing it will not get. It is not going to get the japanese out of manchuria. Then theres another suggestion. Levy a u. S. Arms blockade on japan, keep u. S. Arms from reaching japan. Butga here again american arms e negligible in the conflict. Now, let a me stress that of all the sanctions made, the idea, or rather of all suggestions made, universal sanctions, that is withholding goods from japanese ports, might well have exerted the most coercion. Cut off the trade with japan, hit the japanese where it hurts. Japans economy isad already in trouble in hell. Now let them really suffer. Put the squeeze on them. Articles ten and 16 of the League Covenant refers to such renter. In fact, fact with the league sanctions, but the use cooperate with it. But with all the suggestions made, this is a most risky, and was heavily debated among americas opinion elite. Stimson occasionally toyed with such proposals that he would always back away. Hoover was opposed. No one in congress favored it. Stimsonn himself saw a real dangers involved. Now let me go into the sanctions issue a bit more because sanctions continue to the present day as a means of coercion. Back in 1981 i entered the papers of stanley q hornbeck for the Hoover Institution press. Now, just to his Stanley Hornbeck . Hornbeck is chiefef of the far Eastern Division of the state department. He held the post 1920s1944 and unlike so many euros to diplomats, he is not eastern establishment. He is not an ideal leader. Hornbeck grew up in denver, attended the university of denver. Hes a rhodes scholar. He earned his phd from university of wisconsin on trade policy. He taught Political Science at thwisconsin, then helped teach , tactile device or toic the Department Office of economic advisor, vince of the number of government commissions for u. S. Tariff commission. He had heard part of the brain trust of the power peace conferences called the inquiry. At back in 1916, hornbeck what a book called contemporary politics in the far east. And here he claimed, and i quote, the question of the peace of the far east lies with the fate of china. If china can develop strengths to defend her own integrity, the peace of the orient may be preserved. Otherwise the area, and the quote again, will be a theater of aggression, conflict, and political redistribution. Now, on routine issues hornbeck was a free hand. On major issues he reviews alternatives and recommend policy to the secretary of state. And in theof hornbeck papers isa likely memo. The memo calls for economic boycott by the u. S. And the league of nations. Its probably the most detailed official position paper advocating sanctions. Japan would have no commercial interchange with any nation. And hornbeck notes that onethird of japans trade is with the u. S. And twothirds with members of the league. A announcement of such a boycott would cause the japanese to be what hornbeck called reasonable. The memo claims japan would knuckle under under six months, western sanctions would do the trick, japan cannot stand a boycott more than a very few days. At the most a very few weeks. America, on the other hand, would not have its economy affected at all. That iss according to hornbeck. And hornbeck is not alone. You get proposal after proposal from various forms of what is seen as nonviolent coercion,n, nonviolent methods for boycotts, for sanctions. There is the position of harbors present a man named a lawrence lowell, calls for american cooperation with the least. The league would cooperate. In article 16 is an important article because its an article that involves cutting all trade, all financial relations with any state that broke the League Covenant. United economic pressure, says president lowell, will certainly stop the current bloodshed. Lowell got 10,000 people to sign the petition. Then then theres the boycott effort of margaret lamont, the prominent socialite who organize the murder boycott association. Its not a very big group. Lamont won to get american women to boycott japanese and so, not to buy nylons anymore until japan totally leaves china. And she had some minor success. She got the philosopher john dewey to support the movement. But she got nowhere with new yorks leadingnt department stoe laurent and taylor. Then theres a proposal of a very important private foundation, the 20th century fund, which offer designs for the gradual application of sanctions against any violator of the kellogg antiwar packed. Now before i go on let me add that stimson occasionally flirted with the idea sanctions, but this iss a verb i want to stress. He flirts with it. In my own assertion of this stimson papers and pressure groups can i find stimson neither really, or never really endorsed the idea. He doesnt pushh it. Hes no Stanley Hornbeck. But he wrote a book about the crisis later on called the far eastern crisis, and in his memoirs which are called on active service in peace and war, a rather modestnt title, if i ge once distress how strongly he advocated pressure against japan. But these accounts misrepresent his caution during the time itself. And i saw letter he wrote a friend in the midst of the shanghai crisis. He said he is fully aware of the dangers of sanctions. He said he recognized the difficulties therein. However, he said, theres no point in telling your enemy you have less ammunition that he thinks. In mid april he wrote walt whitmant hes fully in agreement with president hoovers position that boycott might lead to war. He could not help but note though that the u. S. Bought 96 of japans raw silk. I find stimson must much more ambivalent on the idea of private boycotts. You find him privately telling people that a boycott is a good idea. Use the state Department Correspondent disgorging any such action, and he doesnt go public on this. Now, i have a century the Great British historian Christopher Thorne wrote a book called the limits of Foreign Policy, subtitled the west, the league in the o far eastern crisis of 193033. Thorne offers the best account of why sanctions are dubious. Theres a problem in this Year Organization of sanctions. Moreover, not all great powers are members of the league. For example, the soviet union is not, i japan can get some oil from the soviet union. In addition sanctions would be most costly for the u. S. , for britain. The Cotton Growers of india, of the u. S. Would be extremely hard hit. So with the wool growers of australia. So would some 300,000 workers in u. S. Silk mills. Western europe is that in japan which certainly be lost. And if push t came to shove, thorne argues the sanctions led to a pacific war. Japan could hold her own. Where does this now lead stimson . Who was badly upset about manchuria but has this brutal bombardment of shanghai as well. And he discovers that if any formal measures have to be taken against japan, he would have to act of alone. So he again is back into unilateral alternatives. Then when the japanese announced the establishment of a supposedly independent manchurian regime which was given the title muncher go, orlando peace, he is even more furious. He toys with all cans of ideas, proxy should offer, unilateral protest. Prachi should a large American Fleet at pearl harbor. Perhaps he should try and get some backing from thehe bridge dominions, canada, australia. Perhaps he should work with the league for sanctions. After all, war is a danger. Europe doesnt seem to want to push japan around. It keeps its distance. It might be good idea to drop these proposals. Yet, more than ever, stimson believes that america must register, as he put it, its protest on the morality of the situation. So what so what stimson does is expresses disapproval by means of a public letter sent to a prominent american official, william bora is chairman of the senate Foreign Relations committee. Hes also very prominent, very vocal in its own right picky seems like an ideal recipient and the letter stresses nonrecognition but as far more open and condemning japanese action and threatens american retaliation. What this letter says is simply this, back in 1900 american annecy opendoor policy. This open door allows equal commercial opportunity for all nations working in china. Also calls for preserving chinese territory. These policies still stand. China must be protected and its rights. China must not be the pond of any outside power. And then it invokes the nine power pact of 1922. It says the nine power pact simply affirms, reaffirms traditional western policy. This isnt all quite true. No one really took the opendoor policy seriously or the territorial integrity of china very seriously. All the great powers had concrete interest, admit to concessions in china. No one is really without guilt. But it sounds good. Here are the noble americans protecting the noble chinese. And then stimson issues a warning, and a warning is what makes the bora letter so significant is chinas subject to foreign interference, american might resume its house ship construction. It might be fortify the pacific. In other words, all parts of the washington the system hang together. Stimpson is calling the system created in washington 1921 into play. Japan violates the nine power pact, the u. S. Will ignore the naval limits of a similar pact in washington. So the implications are quite clear. A belligerent japan might face an armed america. Stimson did say american appreciate the vast tactic unifying china, that they would await chinese developer with patients but the warning to japan is a there. The threat to japan is a there. Stop now or america will rearm. Now, 1936 when he writes this history of the crisis comes the far eastern crisis, stimson claimed that the borah letter had many purposes. It was designed to encourage china. Was to enlighten of the American Public. It was to exhort the league. It was to stir up the british. It was too warm japan, and its a last point that is really important, worn japan. And first of the borah letter seems to be getting results. On february 29 the japanese and shanghai agreed to negotiate a,a settlement. Then early and make the japanese ofhdrawal from the city shanghai. Let me stress one thing. The japanese withdrawal is not due to the borah letter. The borah letter probably have no affect on japan. Rather, the Japanese Navy and shanghai have blundered into the conflict. The Kwantung Army itself ceased no such is inching up. Still has it in on the big prize, manchuria. In washington makes one thing clear. Washington seems to be the sole obstacle to japans destiny. True, the League Assembly endorsed the nonrecognition policy but also 1932 in 1933 the japanese continue to penetrate into manchuria. By the end of april 1932 the japanese had placed over 600 socalled advisors into the puppet governments home office, its finance office come its foreign office. And within japan itself the military hating stronger. On may 15 the japanese Prime Minister is assassinated. Japan becomes governed by a coalition totally governed, totally dominated by the militaries. And by january 1933 japan has reached northern china, has taken over the province, and chinas capital of peking which is now beijing lies only 80 miles away. Japan had decided she wanted to direct control manchuria. You concern forget about any international guarantees. So 1 may 31, 1933, a littleknon truth, the truth of you in the form of fighting in china for four years, and the broader American Public soon loses interest in asia altogether. Economic depression is taking increasedac told in the u. S. The president ial race between Herbert Hoover and Franklin Roosevelts occupies public attention. Stenson and self admitted he had been unable to reserve chinas territorial integrity. So let me conclude by speculating on the meaning of the manchuria crisis for america. It concerns the rules of the game. Two americans, not just stimson, the rules of the game, the international game, had been established for europe at her side in 1919 and then modified a bit at 1925. These rules have been established for the far east, for east asia, at the washington conference of 192122. In the sense of the kellogg pact is simply confirmation. And what are all these rules . All change must come about through peaceful means. One break up in the system means a break anywhere. Peace is indivisible, indefensible, sorry. Indivisible. Now, the washington system is far more important to americans than any sentimental focus on welfare of the Chinese People or the preservation of china as a nationstate. D it certainly has little to do with the sparsely populated land known as manchuria. It centers on a system established for the pacific at the washington conference. Stenson seeks above all to uphold this global treaty system. In other words, all treaties were at stake here, and i cant stress this factor strongly enough. The american sees a general peace system, estate, a manchuria crisis makes a peace system precarious. Suppose japan gets away with it. Suppose japan dominatesap manchuria in such a total and crude fashion. What happens to the league edifice fostered by Woodrow Wilson . The washington system fosteredst by secretary of state Charles Hughes . The paris pact fostered by secretary of state Frank Kellogg . Manchuria might be japans first step. Japan might be seeking to dominate all of china, dominate all of asia. Yet, surprisingly enough, this is a thing that struck me as i my research, one journal after another, americans are highly optimistic. There is a a general feeling g opinion makers that china would eventually triumph, that the stimson doctrine would ultimately work, that japan would go brokeke trying to maintain itself on the asian mainland. That japans withdrawal was inevitable. Hence, the americans did not become disillusioned with the antiwar pact. It did not lose faith in the peace system. From clear how far the structure of 1921 and 22, the structure created at washington after world war i had crumbled. So let me conclude. The United States still faces a future with optimism. Hopefulness remains throughout. The kellogg system would remain effective. The washington system was not yet lost. And this faith remains until 1936 the shadow of coercion is confuse with the substance, and the story of the manchuria crisis is not that evolutions lost but illusions maintained. Thank you. [applause] if you are enjoying American History tv then sign up for newsletter using the qr code on the screen to receive the weekly schedule of upcoming programs like lectures in history, the presidency and more. Sign up for the American History tv newsletter today and should watch American History tv every saturday or anytime online at cspan. Org history. Weeknights at nine eastern, cspans encore presentation of our ten part series books that shaped america. Cspan partner with the library of congress to explore key piece of literature that it had a profound impact on our country. Tonight we will feature Milton Rose Friedman 1980 book free to choose our guest is a lecture of economics at the university of california Santa Barbara and all of Milton Friedman a biography. 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