The country or the region and really focus on afghanistan for multiple tours of language training. The problem is that to the war in afghanistan of a certain size to slightly bent personnel rules to have the program created. Right now the institutions are reverting back to their normal resting place which is to say good for you have for having been an afghan ham an afghan ham but your an afghan ham but your career is done thank you very much are you very much or you would post it to someplace where you will never get the next promotion. Places like iraq and somalia and the sedges of empire we think they need these types of deep subject Matter Expert piece but also the relationships. Most of these countries are based on relationships not in formal situations we have in the west. I think in yemen we need a yemeni hands program. We will be there for a long ti time. Back to one of your first comments about whether its fair not. In many ways especially when theres complete lack of security who else is going to do it . Thats part of the issue is you have to establish Security First but one of the things we emphasize with the marines and soldiers as we have have to deal that handed off to someone. Our presence there is an antibody and we understand that clearly. This is what i meant. I didnt mean to take away any. No, no but you hear that echoed in some of the marines and soldiers, this isnt fair. What is the enemy get to do things that we dont. Well we are not them. So why do we have to do this . Why cant we have more state department folks state department folks and folks from other agencies in your . They are allergic to getting shot at. Those are the kinds of things when you dont have the security you have to have something in their that calms things down and inclination has to be we need to build a hand this off to someone. Somebody else has to come in here and do this for the longterm to get things calm down because we know we dont belong. I hope that answers your question. [applause] thank you both dan and bill. If you want to stick around they will sign copies of their books available at the checkout counter and thank you all again for coming. Thank you very much. [inaudible conversations] here are just a few of the comments we recently received from our viewers. On the weekend on cspan2 is usually booktv. I really enjoyed that and it looks like maybe you are experimenting trying to find a new format. I want to discourage it. I just think that booktv is one of the smartest things on television. When tv was first invented i think its what everybody hoped television would be. Its too bad there isnt a cable channel devoted to it that im glad cspan is doing it. Its really important and i cant tell you how many books i have bought because i have watched that. I just watch it for General Information too. Im glad to tell you that i dont watch booktv anymore because i cant figure out whats going to be shown. I used to watch it over the weekend and comcast in massachusetts, it doesnt tell me. It just keeps saying to be announced or it says they are going to be talking about some book but they only give you the first two words of the chapter. It will say the second second word and it doesnt tell you whats going to be coming on. Because i dont know whats going on i dont know whether to stay home and watch it or tape it or anything. I just want to say the best news source that i have at the moment. Keep up the good work. Hassan abbas is a professor at the National Defense university and author of the the taliban revival about the reemergence of the taliban in afghanistan after u. S. And nato invasion of 2001. He talked about his book at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace for about an hour and a half. Welcome to the session on the resurgence of the taliban at the Carnegie Endowment. We are happy to welcome you here this morning and i must tell you from the very beginning this is cosponsored with your organization in this. What this session is about is the launching of this book, the taliban revival violence and extremism on the pakistaniafghanistan frontier. This is indeed a timely book, or maybe not so much a timely book. Ideally i dont know because we arrived at the end of the cycle. This cycle is the cycle of western intervention in afghanistan. This is definitely not the end of the arab complex. Unless we believe our own propaganda this is not likely to be so in the months to come. Since the end of 2001, a lot of people have died in afghanistan. All of that was the taliban. I know that the focus these days in the country is mostly about the election and what is going wrong in this election. It will escape none of you that what we see actually is a resurgence of the taliban in both the south and east. None of this can be really surprised since there was mass information both places. The point is not whether this is the case. We know whats going on a retry to know whats going on. We certainly dont know everything. The question is whether does this mean that almost 13 years of war in afghanistan, additional war in afghanistan has served no purpose . Has the taliban been eradicated . Definitely not. Does that mean that the war was a success . Thats definitely a different story. This is what this book in many ways is about. How did we get into the situation we are in now . How did we get into a situation that everybody in 2002s thought had been more or less eradicated or what was left of it was essentially residual. How is it that this movement has come up again and this is what this book by hassan abbas is about. Im happy to say that this is an attempt to bring an objective perspective looking at a different angle. This is a threedimensional aspect of the book which in my opinion is of interest. The role of kabul is something that is discussed. The role of western policy and again this is something which is slightly less discuss. Today we tend to say Mission Accomplished or so we would like to believe. For that matter we are delighted today to welcome the authors hassan abbas and let me say for most of you, for many of you at least he doesnt need an introduction. Hes a professor of the department of regional and analytical studies at the National University college of International Security affairs in washington d. C. He is also Senior Adviser at the asia society. He previously served as the distinguished professor at Columbia University and the sitting adviser at the Belfour Center for science and International Affairs at the Kennedy School of government. To me what is more important is he is a very prolific writer and many of you remember his first book, pakistans extremism. With those words i will not stand between you and the speaker. We will ask a song to please come up and present your book. Thank you very much. Thank you very much and its a great privilege and honor to be here and to see many friends and for so many of us to be able to find time. In the beginning i mentioned frederick is an old friend and his work has affected many of us. Its bold and courageous and scholars of south asian studies. Thithis is a newer organizationa think tank and Advocacy Group and bloodgood and indifferent thing about this organization is its primarily pakistani americans but benefiting from expertise in the guidance of many scholars of south asian descent and many of the other scholars. They believe in making pakistan a progressive state and also building u. S. Pakistan relations so thank you very much. I wish the u. The best of your luck in your endeavors. To give you first the main arguments of my book and also briefly talk about my recent visit which was kind of a book to her. I landed in pakistan for 15 da days. It was an opportunity to go to iraq. I had the opportunity to speak to parliamentarians and Law Enforcement agencies. Some of the things that i heard and its not that im just mentioning iraq, the linkages between the Pakistani Taliban and this new militant group which have built a new state, its very interesting. Some of the slogans that it started coming up on the streets in iraq are in language. We will talk briefly about some of those linkages as well. First and foremost i must add this is also about my background other than me academic background and his face. I had a great honor to serve as a Police Officer in pakistans tribal areas between 1995 and 1997. Some of my ideas and talks are based upon that. One of the understandings with my publisher was who has greatly helped me in to have some of the stories and ideas. I have many anecdotes in the book on that. What i want to begin with i had friends who lived around many cities around the world but my experience with pashtuns for both afghan and pakistan make up 80 of all taliban. My experience living among the pashtuns and im not pashtuns as i have not seen as many as hospitable and friendly as the pashtuns. At the same time i have found the pashtuns but they are principles are very religious. In their daytoday affairs they are not only pragmatic but quite similar. I served as an assistant superintendent to the schools in 1997 and said 98. It was taken over by the militants who were beheading and killing people on the streets before we have become aware of this phenomena phenomenon elsewhere. I remember a few years before this that in pakistan in those days and im not talking about the 1970s. This is late 1990s but if you want to hear good music and see the sights have a drink perhaps or whatever you smoke if you want to do that, subbot is the best place. It really changed and radicalized. This brings me to the pashtuns. Having seen them as hospitable and very secular and i can mention only one name abdul for a con. I dont think that any pashtun leader or pakistani leader was so close to gandhi the great indian leader. They used to call him frontier gandhi because of his secular ideas. Despite being a religious man. What was the biggest for me was having seen it up close what was the extent that they produced and are producing unfortunately 70 to 80 of all taliban. What had gone wrong . So in search of that question i started working on my book. We have in the United States and the rest of the world are familiar with the phrase afghan in pakistan or afghanistan however if you start picking up the history books you will find most books of history are in the political arena. Focus on the overall south Asian Affairs a competitive political study mostly on pakistan and bangladesh india of course and some of the other countries. You can find a book which is comparing pakistan and afghanistan. This is the 9 11 construct. For security reasons and political elite reasons the focus was on these but theres not enough academic study or historical treatment of the subject. That was another purpose. I realized if i wanted to talk more about pashtuns and that is how im constantly pronouncing it different because in pakistan the call at pashtuns and their side of the pashtuns is called mike pashtuns. The first challenge was pakistanis is a 60 country and was built in 1700s, very different ideals and different ethnic factors and tribalism played a major role in the creation of what we know today is afghanistan. Whereas in pakistan it was of course a product of a very Secular Progressive Movement led by all those leaders. The 15 most important pakistani leaders and political founders of pakistan. You would be amazed. They were from all different ethnic backgrounds, different sectarian backgrounds all very secular. It would seem if you looked at those from the 1940s it would be difficult for you to comprehend how a state whose own founders and the people who came up with the idea for pakistan how was it drifted into a very different direction . That too is a phenomena that i try to answer the question how that drift had taken place. That was just to begin with the larger context of what we are looking out. There are five major factors that i would like to mention in my findings as well. First and foremost is the particular need for us to understand the different ways in which the taliban and Pakistani Taliban developed, how they were groomed in some ways, what was the genesis of these organizations . My net finding is that today Afghan Taliban, the old guard of the Afghan Taliban seems to be quite open to negotiations. I would not say they have gone toward the left but they have migrated quite a bit and they are looking for opportunities and openings to negotiate. But these Afghan Taliban and maybe some of the other associates then my understanding the old guard Afghan Taliban have lost control of the insurgency taking place in afghanistan today. This is the second which has links with criminal groups and various sectarian groups as well as well as those who really believe that the foreign presence in afghanistan was something they have to fight. They were not necessarily taliban or militants but that was the considered view. That is what is in their. That is what their tribal identity has led them to believe. That is the narrative that has been embedded in their mindset. Those people who are still fighting into my assessment continue to fight, this is one subset of the Afghan Taliban. That taliban asianamericans if i might say are trying to negotiate in some form or shape to bring to into a mainstay in the biggest problem in my assessment the old guard trying to take control of insurgent the insurgent movements of a can directed and potentially bring it somewhat towards the middle. Thats briefly my assessment of Afghan Taliban stand. They have various other groups. One is the Haqqani Group which operates from a pakistan Afghanistan Border and which is now on the run. Some people believe because theres a major Pakistani Military organization that is happening. I just want to expand on this division between the old guard and the new taliban. Coming to the Pakistani Taliban. The Pakistani Taliban unlike the Afghan Taliban who had cooperated and a few more words about the Afghan Taliban. The Afghan Taliban had coordinated and collaborate with al qaeda collaborated but it never merge. There are couple of good studies that have come in recent years. Bin laden had used Afghan Taliban for their financial needs and used al qaeda. However in the case of the Pakistani Taliban there was more of a merger that had taken place. The nature of the group and their publications, their media and the Pakistani Taliban are quite active on social media as well. They Afghan Taliban are also but the Pakistani Taliban are more so. The Afghanistan Taliban are far more dangerous and lethal. They have moved far closer to al qaeda and in fact today if you ask in many experts how do we define and analyze them today you will not be able to explain to them and ask without explaining the dynamics of the pakistan taliban. Thats the kind of proximity that has taken place. This brings me to the point i was referring to about iraq. The belief is there are around 300 Pakistani Taliban and some other religions from the affiliated groups. From syria they move into iraq. Some of the new slogans mostly in parts of iraq, there are these Pakistani Taliban who are beginning. The Pakistani Taliban are also interesting and not homogeneous in terms of the pashtun identity. They are sick. Groups in punjab the americans who have infiltrated or who have joined the ranks of Pakistani Taliban in a very big fashion. The number of in terms of the threat by the Pakistani Taliban all you need to see is read about the major terrorist attack at the karachi airport. The major attack on the milita military military headquarters destroying one of the most important aircraft that they had. The attack on the air force base and in one case they successfully attacked a location where pakistanis were believed to have kept some of its nuclear arsenal. The point is a case of the Pakistani Taliban there are linkages of Security Forces behind the scene in terms of some insiders and in terms of some people who are radicalized enough, that is a much more dangerous phenomenon. Security analysts if i were security analyst i would spend more time looking at the Pakistani Taliban. There were attempts made to engage Pakistani Taliban during these issues. Part of the reason the Pakistani Taliban art directed is because the only way pakistan attempted to get at them was through kinetic needs. From their point of view state out of the afghanistan tribal area. Some part of it is still a hub. They moved into the mainstream pakistan and it was extremely difficult to monitor to them. Thats the kind of analysis of the Pakistani TalibanAfghan Taliban. Now coming to more of an academic and not for very long time come in terms of how do we understand based on the major issues, because we found these problems whether its a broader Law Enforcement or is it about education . Is it about a rule of law system collects all of those are very good ideas from a longterm perspective. To be able to get to this challenge or to understand this before we can attempt to it has to go through a new wants analysis in which i claim that i have attempted. There are five points that i want to mention about those but before that i will mention a couple of antidotes anecdot anecdotes. These are partly from my book and partly from the experiences i had. I remember the day that former pakistani Prime Minister was returning to pakistan. I was honored to have served with her for a brief time in 1995 and 96. In 2007 when she was returning i was talking to her and she just mentioned, she said once upon a time you were a Police Officer. What is the security situation in pakistan what should i expect when i land in pakistan . Myself, many Security Officials and friends who focused on these issues we almost had a consensus before this. I asked her, i said do you want me to be blunt and direct and she said absolutely. I said i think theres a very high possibility that you could be investigated and she said instantly, instantaneously i know it. Tell me Something Else that i need to and i appreciate her encouragement. She knew she was walking to a death trap not only because at that time the pakistani militants were strong enough. Her assessment was come and i think she was not absolutely right at that time but thats a new reality. The radicalization is taking place in pakistan unfortunately. Its not only confined to the militant camps or the waziristan area. It has seeped into the society in some ways. Still a minority. Still pakistan by and large. If you give them a chance they will mostly vote for relatively Progressive Political parties whether the pashtuns where they would vote historically along the Secular Party but having said that the way the discourse has changed in pakistan, for instance the debate going on in some institutions apply this isis military groups who have taken part of over iran weiss is a good idea . At the end of the days have brought islamic state. That discourse is the day she landed there was a major attack. Those of you to follow that in karachi there were hundreds of thousands people who came to receive her. There was a major attack. That evening i was very passionate about pakistan and i wrote something. I wrote who tried to kill Benazir Bhutto and ive made the case that beta masoud the previous head of the pakistani Afghan Taliban. She immediately wrote about it. She sent back a text to me and i sent it to her that night. She wrote back and said this is not beta masoud. She said something to the effect and im paraphrasing that these are the radical elements within the pakistani establishment. That means bureaucracy as well but by and larg it prefers to establishment at intelligence and the military. Then i would ask him. Something that people often say. But who uses it as long for intelligence . So i said to him i did not understand. [inaudible] we were sitting at a long dinner table in by then he almost jumped in the seats. But then what he said to me was anything that you want to. And he knew. In the same building of is told he went to see her. But they did not have the personnel. From all of the handlers. These are the circles to understand. But i have an honor to have many of these as my students maybe i should say most but 99 percent theyre convinced because very absolutely convinced. But with these perceptions with the intelligence or the military the enemy is hidden behind that facade. So it requires a very delicate objective assessment. But what helps us to understand how to read understand it is taking place . How do we expand in such a fashion . With these advanced attacks. One is redemption. All of these outside events lecter at how it is isolated but the reality is to be made possible. Is long mac. But maybe some members they had written critically because to look get through the lens of a jihad. It is a very critical view of that operation. And that support is taking place. Also the support that we talked about where one group based in pakistan one was the hero of jihad. One is of orientation. What they trained as. The media projected a. But despite the number of suicide bombings. Because of the expansion of the indian infrastructure. Some right and some wrong. With those ethnic wars. So we dont want that to happen again. It is purely based on the prospective but with this research for the first many years but to be the head of the state with pakistan the issue of taliban was mentioned in passing. But then the 20,013th 2006 2001 through 2006. But then they would alienate the family whos started. And then it in the context. I extremely thankful with my students i cannot talk about that part it reminds me of something important. But i heard in pakistan and realized that there is no sympathy for the Haqqani Group. I asked him, and i didnt want to mention his name in 2009 but why . He said we have lost hundreds of thousands of army officers. [inaudible] however we came to realize that it was not in favor are even in operation with the army. So the Haqqani Group i feel related to pakistan, there are many senses. Rt is the movement from the other side. To have that ability because for pakistan with the meeting and realized that the pashtun however. [inaudible] the Pakistan Army is as much of an enemy. But then it is called the coal prepares. But of course. It is not of day preparation also. lend out of place the first part was the graveyard but then to talk about the international forces. And then there is the nexus. And then to get as much money as you can. And this is the new between the cities and pakistan a person next to make was a scholar. He was narrow minded. I could clearly see watching that money everywhere. [inaudible] panera in my lifetime i may have been a little bit out of touch but i remember people would come up to someone and challenge. We may have been challenged but the person is screaming hezbollah. But then to come out but that phenomenon has taken root. But the major source of fundingd. [inaudible] the police chief. [inaudible] and then they said we have no clue what had happened. [inaudible] and i think this sets them in a big way. There are tens of schools. But at this one it chooses a member of a construction company. Everybody says taliban has done that. [inaudible] [inaudible]er but this course with the imaginations the different tribes have divided. But a few shows the control is impossible. My book is to help them understand reasonably. Is very difficult. But there are critical things that we had to do. c now its more than those forces in afghanistan. The police is really police. We will have the support. Said you make it very clear choice. And then to make an investment. Vi ended in the last two years. Org not trying to say to that taliban but that is what happened with the Law Enforcement. Is a lot cheaper. [inaudible] but it is so divisive. [inaudible] q but to be very equal or very open. thank you very much. [applause]. [inaudible] sova and really get the region. What do we say about that . This is beyond the whole idea. So what is your take . We propose the idea of the taliban. But in terms of the dynamict and how much of that is indigenous end of that phenomenon. So when the region began. and then with so many others. We because it becomes that the source is this big activism movement. But we are against extremism. Were also inspired by the same phenomenon. So between fact is the framework that they have. But will give you one example. Said he would go and to meet. [inaudible] and he was also part of a special forces. Ll he was sent a few years ago from the government. And brian large to have a good relationship. Because they say we need your help. Because the taliban has already left. Unfortunately is behaving. But they kept him and be headed him . ]e [inaudible] but with the military tried their very best. 01 taliban never listen to the other taliban. And to assist the suicide bombers. So i the face maybe there was the disconnect in that ideological framework at the end of the day it comes to get other. And a majority comes from opium. If you talk to the british answer. But from the American Perspective funding is haphazard with your money and my many. Gmoc7euju at opium productionaihq it was small. The only way we can succeed is with that telegram. With the taliban. And then gets a major chunk of the money. But then it is classified with that information. But what i can briefly mention is there is a lot of funding. There are many sources. So when it comes from some of those arab countries is from the politician and then to come back in the shape of Something Else. Is slightly different. With the political economy has to take a life of its own. With there is no registration of any form. The point [inaudible] with some of those military groups. 956dn and then to be certain. But those are the responsibilities. But then to be discussed that this is the onset of che discretion. but then to understand there is denial or dilution. And delusion. Of what this is. Because these people have the outside forces who will excuse them. [inaudible] but there is some funding between all of that. Weyry j you know, the discussion with a crisis group with the civilian Law Enforcement, we also have seen the work has begun for your assessment through the funding for civilian Law Enforcement. Has that bennie never done the right kinds of things . And you did not take it to the right the next up8 ig when we see them moving and then that impacts as it would extend into that area. Separation between isi and that pakistan are many are we in terms of operations. The leadership of isi comes from the Army Structure and then moves back at some point. And most of their own assessments that they are not separate entities but it is the single policy. And this Haqqani Group comes out of that single policy. One example might be but we have not seen much in the way of haqqani victims in the current drive in resisting and. Thank you for that work and for your research. Your job jeb bush has done a great job but it was a great idea. But the best thing is what it has done for pakistan. But the most extension of the program. Because it has taken a long time for the policy shift to take place. But with a new generation for those who have graduated it is maybe the largest of the scholarships. But in the case of Law Enforcement and has happened and not much has been done. Because unlike in the military relationship with the clear responsibilities. With the United States it does not assume office. I really hope we have more funding. We have done a few things that kept us away from this but this is the idea right in my next book with the partnerships to support international intervention. But the same state . What is the first thing you do . Those setter on the road but you cannot do that. So thank you very much for the response and for that question. Should have mentioned in the ways to handle the situation in to the tribal area. It even if you do incorporate, is a part of terrorism. With the last point of of violence it is a very good question. Because theyre very focused and what i found out recently is in fact, to talk about the Haqqani Group in what i heard from if you follow twitter it was the simple addition. But this is conducted by being pushed out of pakistan. Now those who believe in afghanistan then they recognize but unlike the taliban. [inaudible] but in my assessment with haqqani their military to my understanding does not further recognize the issue. And i also realize this. Put the books to the army chief and the contractors but the military is now pretty clear on this. I promise to be brief. Sorry i amb6 ÷ a professor and trained to give long answers. I am so grateful to hear of this from building up over many years. But you mention but i think some of the questions are debated. It is this type of cases. And to mention again that intonation that you gave. With the Law Enforcement enhancements. And my question to you is based on your recommendation with the end of the Law Enforcement, in most cases there is no exit. Pragmatically but is something specificallyk9u you could do within four stepsw0 mn for this area with its instability . You are right to say that. But to figure it out in the absence of a very clear answer then the motives become popular. Then those things that they can kill to get rid of it. Many politicians and the members and to many of the leadersb;f4n. [inaudible] fc and the tragedy is there was not a single imam who was ready to stand. Including the officially paid imam. So there is that fear. Is just one part of the problem. But it is the terms of forensics with new technology. With the hybrid and the others there is the concept to be focused on investigating on what happens. And mysterious back to my friend in boston dont take it personally. So its not obey a policy choice. But the last question i love my job as a academic. There is no chance to become Prime Minister but i think first and foremost, those whose served. [inaudible] he had mentioned working in the Prime Ministers office that all the departments can honest and efficient and competent Prime Minister. Allots are very basic. The first and foremost, for that accountability. With the major case of corruption. In that democratic arena. That is the first thing but the second thing is the tendency of pakistan with there is the mosque for the church the state has nothing to do with it. And he was not into some corner. Because his idea of pakistan they were very far away from those ideas. But they can do small things. In some of those issues with the policy issues. Ot,yx to just review the paper work which is from the textbook. 9cpn and a the third thing is the Peace Process with india. I am convinced with the Peace Process. The dollar those would be convinced. Dn u because otherwise i dont see those things. I have a couple questions for you. For you. Numberayj now to take those large territories but the posture is significantly different. 4 and second they are well attended but i find it a little hard. But my same question is the continues along. [inaudible] that may be the taliban and kim conduct military missions. And also 1 million mistakes like this one and so many others. At the same time in the afghanistan future. But it is to hold up to your shoulder. [inaudible]zw the interimsaf÷ of this particular afghanistan even with the democracy. And in this case there was a lot of support that kept some of the taliban a way. Happens. But then to have a successful election with the schoolsxun. [inaudible] they have to figure out the national government. Because we see taliban as the profession. Sx but with that taliban we will try with that. Can actually bring benefit. Second, if you talked about afghan, taliban, and pakistans for quite some time as opposed to the Pakistani Taliban. Im still wondering what exactly was the reaction of Afghan Taliban on pakistans decision to side with the United States post 9 11 . Was there a sense of betrayal from the government of pakistan . If they felt that kind of betrayal, then i would assume that their reaction should have been should have been some sort of a position within them, and wouldnt that create a tension against the state of pakistan . Both are very good questions. Second question, about afghan, taliban, and whether theres a betrayal. I mention that as one of my main arguments in my Chapter Three or four, and youre right. This is obvious from the book, my years with the taliban. You can read that book and you see the distaste he has for all things pakistan but a he thinks the pakistanis went after him. Simply no doubt about it. Thats why i found out the but still, we know for a fact from studies that a majority of Afghan Taliban, even moved to pakistan with their families, and i think a leader who still most likely by the taliban because military are pushing them. They want them to come to the negotiating table. Thats the commit. They give to the United States. In the initial years of Afghan Taliban, they ignore the opening to come to pakistan in afghan they would have been killed in bombing. Pakistan, keep them space at least to, i think its my guess, and estimate, without any empirical direct source in this case, i think maybe around 100 Afghan Taliban leaders are close to the around that number probably came to pakistan. They brought their families and maybe their families are already living there. And then at that time they talked about bassan should have stood by them but they were thankful. And, yes, there was a lot of manipulation as well. So, Afghan Taliban owed a lot to Pakistani Forces that helped them before 9 11. In operations against northern alliance. So this control some were still sympathetic to pakistan but that fight also, wherever pakistan needed Afghan Taliban, the old guard, had to go off to Pakistani Taliban. So they responded to that old reach by not coming out against Pakistani Taliban. So your question is very valid. The other question and ill takemont, but that a very profound idea you h