to see how they're doing. a lot of damage. >> interestingly, jim, one thing to we do e-mailed me this which came from the national emergency management agency hout there where you are. they basically tell us it is the islands where the problems are. a lot of power lines down, a bridge out here and there, a report from cat island that all power lines were down and no telecommunications. so it sounds like the large islands have done pretty well. the smaller islands, either we don't know or they have had some problems. >> that's right. it's probably going to be another at least into tomorrow where they're able to get a sense. people can only get to those islands -- it's hard to communicate there. you know the first thing to happen is power is out. they don't even know that they're really facing yet. trying to send out the trucks. really, until tomorrow they can get out there, maybe get some planes out there. it's going to be tough for them to know the real impact on the bahamas. joe? >> we will certainly be wait for that weather to clear to get a better idea of all that has happened in the bahamas. thanks so much, jim spelling in nassau. the national hurricane center is issuing a new irene forecast at this hour. let's go to our severe weather expert chad myers and cnn's hurricane headquarters. chad, how is it looking where you sit? >> couple of things new, joe, in this advisory. it is not going to be a category 4 any longer. the winds do not get forecast to 35. all day today the storm has not been that organized. there hasn't been a big eye. it hasn't really gotten any stronger. the forecast wasn't to be a strong 3 right now headed to a 4. it's barely that 3 at this point in time. the highest level will be 120, not 135. that's some good news. the track, though, has been shifted slightly to the left, the center of the track. the center of the cone has been shifted slightly to the left, taking it directly over morehead city. just to the south, southwest of ocracoke island where the governor is pleading people to get off, and then right smack-dab over the sound and out about virginia beach, and the water, slight strengthening as it moves very close the ocean city, maryland, and then on up into really driving it right into hudson -- the hudson river. right into new york harbor. of course, we still have the left, the right. just depends on which way to go. new hurricane warnings just issued. yellow. hurricane warnings issued from the virginia/north carolina border all of the way down to the little river inlet. and then tropical storm warnings from there all of the way down to the island. >> okay, so, just putting a finer point on it, you're talking about a possible landfall, somewhere around morehead city or as far, say, as cape hatteras? >> that's right. it still could turn to the right. although the models have been in much better agreement today, which means that we don't have one model just bearing to the left and going to north carolina and into raleigh. and another one heading out to sea. they're all kind of agreeing with each other which gives the hurricane center a little bit more confidence on what's going on. moving up ahead, too, because we do care, again, as secondary landfall very close to, that would be ocean city. that would be about kate may and then right along the beach, right and wild wood and driving right into new york harbor. as it gets over and if it stays over new jersey and the pine woods there we may lose some intensity before it gets to new york city. that would be great. the only bad news with this location is that for hours and hours and hours, the wind will pour water send push water into new york harbor, making the rivers, the hudson and the east river go up. the south areas there in the south beaches and south island there of long island, water could go up, the surge could be higher. >> so for people along the eastern seaboard, this is a no joke scenario right now. what will change it and mitigate it to make it less severe, in your view? >> there could be something called shear. shear is wind that tears a thunderstorm apart. now, you talk about shear when we talk about severe weather in the plains. severe weather shear can make tornadoes because the storm is by itself. when the hurricane wants to be all by itself, spinning around its own eye, there's no shear. when you get shear it kind of blows it apart and those storms can't rotate around each other. there will be some shear that starts to get into the storm and that's why this that number right there is only 85. that's why it doesn't get to category 4 at this point. but i will warn you, joe, this is in very warm water. we could be easily back talking about category 4 by this time tomorrow as it gets organized overnight. that's not out of the question. >> right. so just because it goes down doesn't mean it's not going to come back up. >> that's exactly right. >> great. thanks so much, chad myers. we will be watching for more information from you. here in washington, officials say sunday's dedication of the new martin luther king jr. national memorial remains on schedule, but severe weather unleashed by hurricane irene could affect many people traveling to the event. amtrak has canceled service south of washington from friday through sunday and many airline flights are likely to be delayed or canceled. so check it out before you go. u.s. navy ships are on the move in the kind of operation you might see in a war zone, but this is all about protecting the east coast fleet from hurricane irene. let's bring in our pentagon correspondent chris lawrence. and, chris, they're trying to get them out of the path of danger. >> that's right. you know, the bulk of the u.s. military's east coast based fleet all comes from this one part of virginia. touchdown we saw dozens of ships leaving, heading out to see from this one area just to get out of the way of this storm. the u.s. navy versus hurricane irene, that's one battle the military not prepared to fight. the eminent arrival of the storm has virtually cleared out the world's largest naval base. u.s. navy sent 27 ships to sea, including an aircraft carrier. >> it's important that they go early so they're able to get ahead of the storm and stay outside of the destructive lands. >> reporter: look at what ire reeb has done to the bahamas so far. it could overwhelm the navy's pier since the low-lying norfolk area is vulnerable to storm surge. if the winds could literally rip and pull a ship out to sea. >> it can get very dangerous to have loose ships from piers if they stay in port. >> reporter: the fleet is heading hundreds of miles east. so the storm will pass between the ships and the east coast of the u.s. cnn producer larry is on board one of those ships and he called us from the deck of the "uss ross." >> as the storm passes, the carolina of virginia, all the ships will start to turn inland and start heading out behind the storm. >> no one knows how bad the damage could be, which is why sailors and marines are mainly concerned for their families and homes. >> one of the sailors i spoke with said he and his wife couldn't decide whether she should go to knoxville, tennessee, where her family is from or stay with the children in norfolk about ten miles from the ocean. the concern being if she leaves, they won't know what happens to the hughes. >> the navy is already making contingency plans in case these ships are going to be needed after the storm. so that they can move to an area that would need help with the rescue or recovery mission. virginia national guard has already put several hundreds of troops on alert. and the north carolina national guard has assembled special teams with experts and things like communications, power generation, and security. all ready to help with this storm comes in. >> these would be the people untouched and ready to to dig in with assistance? >> one thing you wouldn't get with the earthquake is you get warning. you have time to position some of these people, put people on alert. and you have time to get the resources in. now to the battle for libya, moammar gadhafi's diehard shelled a plane at the tripoli airport today. the third plane destroyed in the last 24 hours. one of gadhafi's sons tells cnn he wants to negotiate a cease-fire to save tripoli from what he calls a sea of blood. he had been captured by forces but appears to be free now. his father apparently sending a message to supporters from wherever he's hiding, an audio message attributed to moammar gadhafi urging loyalists not to surrender to the rest. his word for the rebels. fresh fighting in the streets of tripoli,a rebel commander said he sent more troops to buildings near gadhafi's seized compound. the strong man may be hold up there. the libyan rebels have made claims before that have proven to be flat out wrong. could they be closing in on gadhafi though? stand by for a live report from tripoli. and, new york is preparing for a possible hit by hurricane irene. we'll look at the damage that, the chaos could be unleashed by a monster storm in america's biggest city. >> what's your biggest concern? >> the new yorker. >> why? >> because they don't listen. you can always tell a new yorker, but you can't tell them very much. every time a local business opens its doors or creates another laptop bag or hires another employee, it's not just good for business -- it's good for the entire community. at bank of america, we know the impact that local businesses have on communities, so we're helping them with advice from local business experts and extending $18 billion in credit last year. that's how we're helping set opportunity in motion. vrrooom...vrrroooomm vroom vrrooom vrrroooomm vrrroooomm vrroom vrrrooomm vrrroooooooommmmmm mmmm mm. [ male announcer ] they'll see you...before you see them. cops are cracking down on drinking and riding. drive sober, or get pulled over. until i tried this. nothing helped me beat arthritis pain. cops are cracking down on drinking and riding. it's salonpas. pain relief that works at the site of pain... up to 12 hours. salonpas. john allen muhammad jack jack cafferty is here with the cafferty file. >> now that some in corporate america are taking an aim at their bank accounts. this has the potential to get interesting. more than 100 ceos now have signed a pledge to stop all political campaign contributions until lawmakers stop the gridlock. this could be a standoff that lasts to eternity. starbucks' ceo howard schultz is leading the movement. he says it seems like lawmakers are only interested in their re-election. he's absolutely right about that. and that the life blood, of course, of re-election is money. in just one week shultz has got more than 100 business leaders on board, including ceos of aol, whole foods, intu it, zip car, j. crew and billionaire investor pete peterson. shultz says his initiative has, quote, triggered a national dialogue and a ground swell of support, unquote. and he hopes americans will join in, too. the pledge has leaders agreeing to stop all campaign contributions until the lawmakers strike what he calls a bipartisan balanced long-term debt deal that addresses both it into entitlements and revenues. they will look for ways to speed up job growth. it's unclear the effect it's going to happen but worth noting a small number of american make up the bulk of political donors in this country. let's than one half of 1% of americans give money to candidates and political parties. those donations make up 65% of all the contributions. so here's the question, more than 100 ceos so far have signed a pledge to not make political donations. how do you think that will affect washington? go to cnn.com/caffertyfile and post a comments on my blog or to to my post on the situation's room's facebook page. nobody gave them any money i wonder what would happen to them. >> fascinating idea. and you have to take them seriously that they're genuine about it. but the question is, when are they going to stop paying their lobbyists to work capitol hill? >> there's a whole other group that are -- and the bundlers. you're right. but, you know, if you want to empty the potomac river you've got to empty it off in there. >> that's right. libyan rebels have control of 80% of tripoli, sending moammar gadhafi into hiding, but the ousted libyan leader is refusing to tell his fighters to lay down their weapons. listen to a clip from that audio message apparently from gadhafi to his supporters. >> translator: do not be afraid of bombing. you will not be hit. do not be afraid at all. they are just stun grenades to scare you. do not be afraid at all. do not surrender tripoli. >> so, let's bring in cnn international correspondent nick robertson in tripoli. and i guess, nick, the million dollar question still is, where's gadhafi and whether they've gotten any closer to locating him? >> well, i guess you can say, joe, that they've narrowed down a couple of places he is not this afternoon. rumors abound here about where he is. we were told in the middle of the afternoon that rebel commander, we were told by the commander himself he dispatched extra troops to surround a number of apartment buildings where he was held up. that's what we believed. we went to take a look. the apartment didn't seem to exist. we were told, okay, there's another rumor that he might be surrounded and another area of town. we went over there. that we were told turned out to be not gadhafi himself hold up but some people that were loyalists to him, we were told. later on this evening we saw an apartment out there on fire. we were told that was gadhafi's spies shot atlanta the apartment set on fire. so the rebels have narrowed it down by one or two places. the reality is they don't seem to have a clue. he could be about anywhere here. and the rebels are really just scratching around with rumors at the moment. of course, they may have some key information. they're not sharing it with us. and we're not seeing it acted out on the streets if they do. joe? >> so a lot of wishful thinking. what do you think, perhaps optimism that they're closing in on him but no real information. one thing that we heard just the other day was all this fighting around the airport and concerns that he might be trying to make his way there to get on to a plane. anything new? >> nothing new on that. i mean, gadhafi and his family have a farm that's close to the airport. there were concerns that he might be hold up there. that he might, as you say, be trying to get to that airfield or another airfield where he is used to keep his private jets. those may have been his plans. but he doesn't seem to have executed them. the reality is the rebels here have been high on rhetoric. we heard them tell us that they captured three of his sons. high on rhetoric but low on delivery at the moment. at least in terms of gadhafi. maybe this rhetoric is the design to get his loyalists to put down their weapons. but it's certainly not leading to his capture right now. so they're not able to deliver on that. it could be sometime, joe. >> what about these messages that come from gadhafi and presumably are broadcast? is there any way of tracking through the radio stations to try to find out where they're getting this tape or this signal from that he's putting his voice out on? you know, i guess you could say it was a little bit like trying to track where is osama bin laden, was getting his messages handed off and delivered. it's too easy these days to record something on a phone chip, pass the phone chip to somebody. they upload it somewhere else. it gets e-mailed to a broadcaster. and before you know it, it's all over the airwaves. so it's probably very, very hard to catch him by that mechanism. what amazes me about his broadcast is, this is a man who doesn't seem to still see reality staring him in the face. don't give up the fight, is what he's saying to his loyalists. yet one of his sons has been e-mailing me saying i've got a plan to negotiate a cease-fire to avoid the bloodshed in the capital. this is a very dysfunctional family at the very least right now, joe. >> and those e-mails continue. have you been responding to them? have you been saying anything back when you get these e-mails? >> you know, i try to ask questions. i try to ask questions about, you know, there were rumors that saadi gadhafi sending me the e-mails were going to be captured or the rebels were trying to capture him in the hotel downtown. when i asked him about that he said they arrived too late. there are questions that i asked that are just not being answered at all. what i was told is that his efforts are still on going to negotiate the cease-fire. that he wants to do it with the help of a couple of big explosions there just -- very big explosion, actually, over my shoulder. not clear what that was at all, joe, but that was quite a loud explosion. so the bottom line is, and i can hear people loading their rifles and weapons down there. rebel gunmen preparing their weapons. we'll try and find out what that big explosion was. sounded like an echo of an explosion and then another explosion itself. >> so it's an on going -- >> i don't know exactly what it was. >> ongoing situation. perhaps i should go ahead and let you go. just check out your own personal safety. and we'll be checking back in with you, nic robertson. thanks so much for that reporting. languished for months in solitary confinement. we'll hear the story of one american journalists who escaped from a libyan jail, and the family of a u.s. man who was kidnapped in pakistan makes an appeal to his captors. summer is here.male an] and so too is the summer event. now get an incredible offer on the powerful c300 sport sedan. but hurry before this opportunity...disappears. the mercedes-benz summer event ends august 31st. we take it on ours. this summer put your family in an exceptionally engineered mercedes-benz now for an exceptional price during the summer event. but hurry, this offer ends august 31st. wolf blitzer is off today. i'm joe johns. here are some of the stories we're working on for the next hour. as hurricane irene barrels toward the u.s., new york braces for the eye of the storm. surprise earthquake that jolted the east coast also left thousands without cell phone service. how can be this avoided next time? and as steve jobs exits the company he co-founded, we'll take a look at the man who will be the new head of apple. stand by, you're in "the situation room." fire and smoke and shelves flying. that's the scene of the tripoli international airport. one of the battlegrounds where pro-gadhafi forces are making a last stand. cnn's arwa damon is the only western journalist at the airport. >> we're up on the control tower. we have to stay a bit low because the rebels cia a sniper shooting at them. we wanted to show you this. that smoldering airplane. this airport complex has been bombarded relentlessly by gadhafi loyalists using various kinds of artillery and brad rockets. if we come over to this side, you can actually hear the sounds of explosions, gunfire. but if we move around, you can see even more of the wreckage that has been caused by the gadhafi loyalists, assault on this airport complex. now, if we come over to the other side of the air control tower, you can see the wreckage of an aircraft that was hit overnight. and the rebels say that the assault on this airport complex is so intense for a number of reasons. first of all, the senior xand commanders here believe that they are trying to keep huge land that they don't control free so they can perhaps try to sneak gadhafi himself through there. but also the rebels believe that gadhafi loyalists are employing a scorch earth policy. they want to demolish anything that they possibly can. they're still facing a fierce and intense battle at this airport complex from gadhafi loyalists. arwa damon, cnn, at the tripoli international airport. arwa damon joins us live right now. and, arwa, i have so many questions for you. it seems pretty clear that they're trying to get control of the airport here. the question is, who has the upper hand right now? >> well, the rebels do still have full control of it and they've got pretty heavy perimeter defenses that have been set up. they are also trying to fire their own outgoing artillery to keep the gadhafi forces at bay. but they're really getting quite bogged down by their efforts to protect the airport. something they're finding incredibly frustrating because it's preventing them from going out there, trying to hunt down the loyalists and more importantly trying to hunt down gadhafi himself. >> now, let's talk a little bit about that rv you have behind us there. it's fascinating. this is gadhafi's rv? what does a dictator need with an rv? >> well, i think that's a question that i'm not going to be able to answer at this stage. but, yes, actually rebels have been saying this is an indication that even though they are getting quite bogged down they're still able to move up. today they were able to get to one of gadhafi's farms that's located about 15 minutes away from here. they got into quite an intense fight there, but they have managed to clear some parts of this sprawling farm complex. they drove this up earlier in the day, honking like crazy, laughing, smiling. they were going through it. we were able to get inside earlier in the day. and you do see things like kitchen utensils, various toiletries, a bed that has been made. one of the rebels pulled out a gas mask from the back room. he says that's where he found it. but there's no real personal item that were inside it. the rebels have now spray painted it with a revolutionaries, because this is where the rebels are from. over here actually there are two golf carts that they pulled out of that same complex. the rebels are trying to jump-start them, to drag them all of the way to this -- to the airport on the back of one of the trucks. and they say that they were really surprised by the level of luxury that gadhafi appeared to be living in. one of the young rebels was saying that he couldn't believe how much their leader had, while all this time, his own people were suffering so much. >> arwa damon, that's a visual kind of luxury that he was live pentagon in golf carts and rv is an extraordinary picture for us this evening. thank you so much for that. moammar gadhafi is still on the lamb but the new addition of "time" magazine looks at the world after the fall of his 42-year regime. "time" managing editor joins us right now. rick, i guess the first question is, what happens from here in a post-gadhafi libya? >> yes, i mean that is the big question. i mean, they will eventually find him. he will eventually flee. but the larger issue is what happens to libya post-gadhafi. it's a country that doesn't have many institutions. it was ruled by this guy who was never actually institutionalized in authority. on the other hand, it's a small country, which is a good thing. it has a lot of oil revenue, which is a good thing. it cuts both ways to not have institutions but can actually start creating a kind of democratic libya right from scratch. >> and do you have a sense about a timetable here in this country, a lot of people questioning whether it will be two years, it will be five years, or ten years before we see stability, and what will be the hallmarks, if we can say right now, to be able to predict some type of a stable libya. >> right. i mean, again, what they have going for them, too, is a small population and a lot of oil revenue. what they also have going for them is the european union's interest in libya, france, america, and great britain now have vested interest in trying to create some kind of democracy with institutions in libya. and they will help. they will help with money. their own oil revenues will help. i think it's possible, joe, to put a timetable on how long it will take. it's very hard to create democratic institutions in a country that never had them before. and again, we're still not exactly sure who the rebels are and whether they are a thomas jefferson or a george washington or john adams among them. we certainly hope so. so that really remains to be seen. >> so many people we've talked to on this program and others have said they believe this is certainly the end of moammar gadhafi. do you subscribe to that view, as well, that there is absolutely positively no way he will be able to return from power given the scenario we're seeing on the ground right now? >> yes. i'm not supposed to give such a short answer, joe. if you look at our cover of the kind of fading away of gadhafi, his era is over. he will not return. maybe he will end up in south africa or some other place, but everybody is prepared for a new dispensation, a new government, a new form of leadership. again, one of the things that people have been talking about is libya has a lot of tribes. but i think the general consensus is that gadhafi himself played up tribal differences in order to secure his own power. and i think in a post-gadhafi libya, i think there will be some unanimity, there will be transtribal organizations that grow up. and i'm optimistic about what can happen there. >> the cover picture of this week's "time" magazine is simply stunning. the face of moammar gadhafi and the top of his head blowing away in the sand. thanks so much, rick. we will be looking forward to see you next time. >> thank you, joe. the former head of the international monetary fund plans to revisit the past now that prosecutors are dismissing sexual assault charges against him. and see what happens when a police car is involved in a head-on collision. releases armies of snowmen masseuse, who cuddle up with your soreness and give out polar bear hugs. technology. 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(sigh) whaa. tasty. that's, that's a complete dramatization of course, but you get my point. vo: geico 15 minutes could save you 15% or more on car insurance. two of the most important are energy security and economic growth. north america actually has one of the largest oil reserves in the world. a large part of that is oil sands. this resource has the ability to create hundreds of thousands of jobs. at our kearl project in canada, we'll be able to produce these oil sands with the same emissions as many other oils and that's a huge breakthrough. that's good for our country's energy security and our economy. mary snow is monitoring some of the other top stories in the "situation room." we're hearing from the relatives of a u.s. man missing in pakistan. >> yes. relatives of an american man abducted in pakistan are making an appeal to his kidnappers in a statement released today the family of warren weinstein asked those holding him to contact him or allow weinstein himself to reach out to family members. the 70-year-old weinstein was kidnapped from his home in lahore this month. casey anthony began serving one-year probation sentence for check fraud. florida authorities say she has met with her probation officer but not revealing her whereabouts because of death threats. anthony has been in hiding since released from prison last month after the jury acquitted her in the death of her 2-year-old daughter caylee. former international monetary fund chief dominique strauss-kahn is in washington next week. strauss-kahn resigned at the manager director in may after charged with sexual assaulting a hotel maid in new york. prosecutors are dismissing those charges because of questions surrounding the eye accuser's credibility. she's still pursuing a civil case against strauss-kahn. oklahoma county sheriff's office released video of a head-on collision between a deputy's cruiser and suv that was traveling on the wrong side of the road. take a look. the account occurred saturday. the sheriff's deputy surfed minor injuries. the driver of the suv was charged with driving under the influence. very fortunate the injuries weren't worse. joe? >> that is just unbelievable. i mean, good grief. and everybody got out of that okay. >> minor injuries. yeah. very lucky. >> could you imagine how much adrenaline would jump into your throat if you pulled around and saw that? just stunning. wow. great. thanks so much, mary snow. >> sure. dick cheney's new book reveals he had wanted to bomb a suspected nuclear site in syria. did he have more insight into the future problems in the middle east than some people thought? and steve jobs, is an undisputed corporate giant who arguably changed the world. we'll look at the man taking on the challenge of replacing jobs as apple's ceo. excuse me? my grandfather was born in this village. 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[ male announcer ] it's the at&t network. or creates another laptop bag or hires another employee, it's not just good for business -- it's good for the entire community. at bank of america, we know the impact that local businesses have on communities, so we're helping them with advice from local business experts and extending $18 billion in credit last year. that's how we're helping set opportunity in motion. vrrooom...vrrroooomm vroom vrrooom vrrroooomm vrrroooomm vrroom vrrrooomm vrrroooooooommmmmm mmmm mm. former vice president dick cheney is out with the new tell-all book that reveals deep splits within the bush administration. here to talk about it, democratic strategist donna brazile and republican consultant alex, they're both cnn contributors. what everybody is talking about right now is this new book by cheney, which is essentially says among other things, i think the headline that we all jumped on today was, in 2007, years after iraq and afghanistan started, there was this apparent nuclear plant in syria, and they found out about it. cheney advised the president, let's go blow it up. the president said no. none the less, i mean, when you look at that and you look at the to totality of what the bush administration done, now we have the arab spring and democracy rising apparently or perhaps in the middle east. did george w. bush have it right? >> i think you're going to have a pretty good case that he did. george bush got out there before anyone and said, is democracy something reserved for us alone? is that something that belongs to other people? one thing you can credit the democratic party, they led on civil rights in the united states. they said this freedom thing belongs to everybody. doesn't matter what your last name is, doesn't matter what you color is. the bush administration did the same thing globally and it's going to come back to pay big dividends to us. it's already doing that with the arab spring in the middle east now. >> this is a volatile question though because people on the left still believe that the bush administration did a lot of damage to the reputation of the united states. and you know, internally, externally, what have you. do you think the notion that bush had it right is ever going to fly anywhere but on the right? >> you know, i think there are some people who not only were very close to the action during the bush years, but also very supportive of the united states intervening in the affairs of other countries who will always believe that what we did in iraq and perhaps other places was justified simply because they wanted to go in there and to prove whatever points they had. i do believe that this arab year, this is not just a spring because now we're coming to the end of summer. this is about the people in those nations. they want change. they want new governments. they want the about to elect their own leaders. and i don't think the united states should involve itself in the affairs of these countries. and you know, i'm looking forwards to reading condoleezza rice's book that will come out in november to see her interpretation of those events and whether or not dick cheney is telling the truth. >> the communication is revolution has changed everything. now twitter, facebook. people can communicate and organize bottom up. the bush administration, i think, was ahead of history in seeing the democracies of the future. >> now, let's talk about rick perry here on the -- >> that's looking backward. that's not looking forward. >> listen, one of the things that happened today is that rick perry went on the radio and, among others things, asked about martha's vineyard, he said he's not sure he knew where that was. he's called washington, d.c. is a seedy place. more of the kinds of rick perry comments we've been accustomed to. i think we have a radio cut from some of this remarks. let's listen. >> with all due respect to anyone that's out there, either directly or indirectly criticizing me because i speak plainly. i call it like i see it. look, i'm not an establish i'm figure. never have been, and frankly, i don't want to be. i dislike washington. i think it's a seedy place. >> stay in austin. stay in austin, texas. stay in dallas, houston. great places. i agree. washington, d.c. is a great city. wonderful city. wonderful people. i'm proud of this city. i'm proud of what the city is doing in weekend in preparation to unveil the king memorial. rick perry, stay in texas. >> he may never get to be an establishment figure but he is run for president, which last check was top of the establishment. he does have to watch what he says. rick perry, when he holds that six shooter and shoots somewhere else, he ought to make sure it's aimed somewhere else. >> when and if he ever has to move to the middle and a general election, what's he going to do? >> tremendous anger at government. and this populous sentiment out there. he represents, he captures that. the same way the elected republicans to congress. he's certainly trying to capitalize on that anti-washington sentiment. >> tremendous disappointment with not just government, but wall street, media, corporations. people are just fed up because they're tired of acrimony and looking for real leaders. i don't know if rick perry will fit the plate, so to speak. >> donna brazile, alex, thank you for after enduring months of isolation, he is now enjoying freedom. we will tell you the story of an american journalist who escapes from libya. as hurricane irene turns towards the u.s., the east coast prepares for a hit from the storm. >> an american journalist is a free man after months of isolation in libya and he's talking about his escape from jail. cnn foreign affairs correspondent has the dramatic story. >> joe, matthew van dike is an aspiring travel writer and now has an adventure story you wouldn't believe. for six months, languishing in solitary confinement, matthew van dike had no contact with the outside world. his mother told cnn they don't know why he was arrested by gadhafi's forces, knocked unconscious and thrown into tripoli's notorious prison shown here in a you tube video. >> here awoke to the sound of a man in the room above him being tortured. >> early wednesday, matthew told cnn.com in the chaos and fighting heerks heard prisoners and thought this is it. they came to lynch me. someone hammered off the lock on the door. he and the other prisoners were free. he grabbed sandals and fled 30 harrowing hours later. he made it to a rebel safe house and called his mother in baltimore. >> i waited almost six months to say him say hi, mom. that's what i heard yesterday when he was on the phone. it's just an unbelievable feeling. >> his fiance said she was worried, but she had faith he would survive. >> he traveled in other countries. he has been embedded with u.s. troops. i knew i had confidence that he knew how to handle himself. that made it easier for me. >> despite everything, he has no problems with libyans. in fact he is determined to stay in libya. >> the libyan capital is littered with guns and bodies. we are giving you a firsthand look at the lawlessness on the streets and getting ready for hurricane irene. what you need to know for the monster storm next. ♪ [ male announcer ] they'll see you...before you see them. cops are cracking down on drinking and riding. drive sober, or get pulled over. yep...doh. 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[♪...] >> male announcer: now, for a limited time, your companion flies free, plus save up to 65%. call 1-800-sandals. conditions apply. jack joins us again with the cafferty file. jack? >> more than 100 ceos signed a pledge not to make any political donations. how will that affect washington. unfortunately for us there a lot more than 100 ceos in the country. that small handful doesn't compare to the scores of other who is continue to legally bribe our lawmakers, but it's a start. dale said without the big name corporate don't or, real politicians will have to see how ron paul does it. it's a good idea and will eliminate some of the special interests. i take my hat off to the ceos. karla writes not at all, there will be 200 standing in line to take our place and influence our leaders and own a piece of washington. doug in massachusetts said it's a phony ruse led by the starbucks ceo for obama's desire to raise taxes. this stunt will not affect washington at all. it would take a direct hit from a meteor to affect washington. james writes it won't at least until oil companies and other large firms join the list. the politicians won't care, but the effort is a good start. bob in florida writes a nice warning shot, but the idea is more symbol than substance. i don't think congress would notice much they haven't been listening to the voters anyway. russell in iowa, we are halfway there. we have to stop them from writing the legislation. we might have a shot at a funking government instead of a corporate vending machine. you top the read more on the subject, go to cnn.com/cafferty file or through our post on the situation room's facebook page. you read that often, don't you, joe? >> all the time, jack. i have to. >> all right. >> thanks for that. you are in "the situation room" happening now. fight and destroy the rats. libyan dictator muammar gadhafi purportedly issues a call to followers plus, a new warning. states of emergency and mandatory evacuations issued up and down the u.s. eastern seaboard. ahead of an imminent hurricane, one governor is calling a 100 year event. we are tracking irene's path and what you should be doing to prepare. it may be one of the largest most powerful cities in the world. when it comes to a monster hurricane, new york city could be in serious danger. welcome to our viewers in the united states and around the world. wolf blitzer is off today. i'm joe johns and you are in "the situation room." first to the wrath of irene. growing more threatening as we speak. the first hurricane warning has just been issued for the united states. the monster storm is expected to slam into the east coast just days from now. emergency decrees are already in effect and a number of states and residents are being urged to heed evacuation orders. meanwhile, this hour, a vicious scene in the bahamas as irene's eye tears across the islands with winds of up to 115 miles an hour. let's go straight to the meteorologist chad meyers. >> joe, the eye is visible not only on satellite, but radar out of miami. there it is right there. the good news is it's not over florida. outer bands are coming on to florida with gusty winds and heavy rain. over 100 airplanes canceled out of miami due to that. american airlines cancelling a bunch and delta cancelling a few. there is the storm and remember yesterday at this time we were saying when is it going to turn? is it going to turn? finally in the overnight hours we had a turn to the north. that will spare florida it. may not be in time to spare north carolina. it appears that the models are coming together and warnings have been posted. all the way from little river inlet to about virginia beach. 120 to 110 mile per hour storms, getting a little bit slower. it's not forecast to be a category four anymore. still to category three. they are separated by 131 miles per hour. not forecast to get higher than 131. a very strong storm and 120 miles per hour. close to moorhead city and over the outer banks. the bigger problem is after that, then it tracks along all of the shoreline of the eastern u.s. from the maryland shore through the virginia and delaware shore all wait up to new jersey into new york city. that's the center of the line that we always tell you not to pay attention to, but it's still the forecast. here's the error this way and the error this way, but the forecast is to drive that 85 mile per hour storm into new york harbor through the weekend on sunday afternoon. that could be a very big deal. warnings are not posted yet because it's not close enough to arrival time. you wait until the hurricane center waits for about 36 hours before arrival to issue the watches and warnings and it's more than that now. that means that the big side from left to right is still very bigot cone. >> one of the things i remember because i used to live in the carolinas years and years ago is that hurricanes more than once seem to have gotten tied up around the outer banks in that part. is that the kind of scenario where we are likely to see it might slow down around the outer banks? >> hurricanes slow down when they hit land. there is very little land if you get inside the outer banks. this is all sound. this is all water. as the hurricane travels across that, it is not going to slow down. it's like saying the hurricane will slow down over the everglad everglades. that doesn't happen either. they are wet. the everglades are warm water. so is the water right here inside the sound. i don't believe that will happen. that's why the hurricane warnings in the entire purple area are posted for the carolinas. not only that, but there will be so much significant rainfall from all the way from the poconos and all the way to maryland, some spots and that could cause inland flooding nothing to do with the coastal lows and the ocean or the waves just the flooding and rivers themselves. >> nothing you can do right now on the east coast but get ready because it's probably going to be bad. >> people asked me all day on twitter, what's the best case scenario. we are losing that as we speak. the best case is missing the u.s. not one single computer model that ran this morning into and into this afternoon that predicts that now. all of the modelser here through new york city. they are all agreeing and that is getting concerns that they are all agreeing on probably the worst possible landfall. >> well, that's what we would not call good news right now. thanks so much for that, chad meyers. we will check back with you. what should we do to get ready for the giant storm? john lived through lots and lots of hurricanes. he joins us now from atlantic beach, north carolina. what would you do if you were along the east coast looking at what we saw from chad meyers. what would you be thinking about and what's the first thing you do to prioritize it? >> well, the first thing you have to do is you have to go out and make sure you have water for four days it for each member of your family. you have to make sure you have a medical kit handy and make sure you have medicines that you might need bagged up and ready to go in case you have to evacuate. you have to have an evacuation plan and know where you are going to go and what roads you will take and make sure they are not under water by the time you make the decision. if you do decide to leave or are told by the emergency managers to leave, don't wait. here on atlantic beach, we are -- you can see one of the things they have done. they started to board up. they boarded up most of the entire building except the front door. one other building across the street here. you can see they are all boarded up. the cameraman, mike miller took a ride up and down and so far we haven't seen much else boarded up here. atlantic city is right across the bridge on the water from moorhead city. all this area right now as chad was pointing out could very well take the center of the storm sometime on saturday as it starts moving up the east coast. if you are up along the east toast, in the middle atlantic states and the northeast, the time is now to start preparing. don't wait until tomorrow afternoon when the stores are wiped out. if you can get out tonight while it's calm, go out and do what you need to do and get the things you need to get so you are safe at home with your family. one thing that is important. find what you think is a safe room. the safest room away from windows where you can ride it out in the eventuality that it does get bad >> we saw the pictures of batteries and water, plenty of water. a lot of people don't think about this, but you should gas up your car. you can use it to -- >> full tank. >> you can charge your black berry and whatever you want to charge and have air conditioning if your electricity is out. >> as long as you have a generator. you go out and buy a generator? >> i did in fact. >> a couple of points there. absolutely smart, but not only do you need gasoline, make sure you have plenty of oil. i can tell you from experience, they go through oil quickly. and one of the things we always see in the aftermath of hurricanes tragically are people who die of carbon monoxide. they put the generator in their garage or someplace near a window and all those fumes go in the house and we see people who end up dying in the afternoon math of storms because of the carbon monoxide from the generators. folks out there, make sure the generators are in a well-ventilated area. >> this is all good advice, john. thanks. i guess you had to do this yourself, did you not? >> i did it. this past sunday, i went out and picked up extra water and gas cans so i can fill them for my generator. the last time i had to use the generator. that was during hurricane wilma in '05, the same year as katrina and rita. the last big storm, a cat 3 that came over south florida we were without power for days. we got power back on halloween afternoon. we were out for eight days. >> you always remember the name of the storm that gets you. the one that got me was isabel. great. all good information. we will check back with you. to libya now and intensifying the manhunt for muammar gadhafi days after. an apartment complex was surrounded on a tip he was inside. dozens are getting caught in the bloody crossfire. dan rivers joins us now from tripoli and we want to warn you that what you are about to see in the report may be disturbing. >> we are here in tripoli and a lot of anti-aircraft fire again this evening. it's difficult to tell what's going on. i think it's kids with itchy trigger fingers, getting bored and shooting huge amounts of large caliber ammunition into the sky. meanwhile further to the south, the real battle is continuing as you mentioned, colonel gadhafi according to the rebels is surrounded and is on the back. they haven't produced anything else other than their say so for that. no evidence that they have cornered colonel gadhafi. tripoli itself continues to be a city in crisis. this was the very heart of the regime. a potent symbol of resistance against the west. now overrun by his enemies. is the writing on the wall for the colonels. they are determined to flush him out. >> they are -- >> you have to be careful at every cornner this part of the city near gadhafi's compound. we are not sure if they are shooting at us, but we don't stay to find out. the streets are a wash with guns and rebels women haven't seen a single loyalist here. among the fighters, this man was held in prison for political decent. he does remember the torture. >> we have been beaten and held with our hands tied up like this. >> we visit the military hospital. now echoing with the screams of children caught up in the mayhem. this man has been watching hundreds of injured civilians being rushed in for treatment. >> the women had been killed, they are basically n bringing snipers into the houses. >> it's pretty sickening. >> it's really -- i worked for 10 years and this one was bad. >> i meet a 27-year-old fighter shot twice by a sniper yesterday. this is near to where he was shot. hard le a surface that is not punctuated by the firefight. at the end of this smoke-filled street, an intersection littered with bodies. i counted a dozen. the grizzly urban warfare. the victim's hands bound and the rebels say they were ex-kited by gadhafi's men. for these bodies appear to be black africans that make up a large portion of the army. that raises the question of whether they were executed by the rebels. these scenes sum up the horror of parts of tripoli now. bodies strewn across the street and remaining a no go zone. the transitional national council held a press conference this evening saying they are relocating now to tripoli. as you can hear, it's a city that is volatile and a city that is far from being at peace with itself. very far at the moment from having secured the capture or killing of colonel gadhafi. >> dan river, thanks for that. it doesn't sound secure at all with all the shooting going on behind you. stay safe. a major step in the formation of a new libya today. the national transitional council. they announced they moved from benghazi to the capital city of tripoli. much more ahead on libya tonight. our senior international correspondent has been chasing reports of gadhafi's whereabouts all day. he joins us with a live report next. meanwhile, new york city bracing for irene. why many say it could still be in danger even if it is spared a direct hit. the man charged with filling the shoes of a tech giant. just who is the next steve jobs? every time a local business opens its doors or creates another laptop bag or hires another employee, it's not just good for business -- it's good for the entire community. at bank of america, we know the impact that local businesses have on communities, so we're helping them with advice from local business experts and extending $18 billion in credit last year. that's how we're helping set opportunity in motion. jack cafferty is here with the cafferty file. >> joe, city of camden new jersey is going to pay students not to skip school. say what? the enquirer reported it's part of an effort to end truancy. it will focus on conflict resolution and anger management in the first months of school. the program called i can end truancy is being funded by a grant from new jersey's department of criminal justice. the moany needs to be used by september 30th or they won't have a shot next year. that means the participating students will be paid $100 each if they attend most of the anti-triancy sessions and school days. the students and parents have to sign a pledge they won't skip classes during the year. you can't do this with a straight face. they will track the students's attendance and absences will be assessed case by case because many of the young people face extraordinary things. one of the ninth graders can't read and several of the students go hungry at home. not everybody thinks paying kids to go to school is a good idea. i would be one of those. one former school board member calls the plan outrageous and said it sends the wrong message and the schools need change to keep the students interested. supporters point out that other cities used similar programs and camden's mayor hopes to continue the program with other grants so that more troubled students can participate. here's the question. should students be paid to go to school? go to cnn.com/cafferty file and post a comment on my blog or go to the post on "the situation room's" facebook page. i answered the question for you, but the rules of cnn preclude me using the kind of language i need to express my feelings on the subject. back to you. >> jack, i'm with you. if you looked at my mother and said i want to be pate to go to school, she would say boy, are you crazy? >> you can use the money to get your teeth fixed because i will knock them all out. that's the answer i would have gotten too. >> thanks for that, jack. >> there disturbing new revelations about the communications melt down during this week's historic earthquake on the east coast. now that's raising new concerns ahead of what is forecast to be the monster storm in the very same area. our brian todd is here with details. this is a real one, two punch. >> extraordinary, but back to the communications joe, you were here. we could go on the street with smart phone like this one and make video reports and accepted them out to almost anywhere in the world. even with mechanisms like this, we couldn't make basic calls and that's a big problem. it's a flaw and networks that could cost lives we came streaming out of our offices and homes, trying frantically to save loved ones. most of us got this. >> your call cannot be completed as dialled. >> many of us couldn't get through for more than an hour. the cell phone networks completely jammed. it really didn't matter what you had. standard cell phone, blackberry or smart phone. we are all tied to the major carriers and 10 years after september 11 when we needed them the most, their networks were overwhelmed and couldn't handle the spike in volume. it exposed a major short coming in emergencies a short coming that causes huge problems again as hurricane irene bears down on the u.s. the federal communications commissions contacting the wireless carriers and public safety call centers to determine the cause of the outages after the earthquake and how to address them. >> most importantly we were concerned about the fact that 911 calls were also congested. we want to make sure that people who need emergency respect were able to get it. >> right now there is no technology in common use to make sure 911 calls from wireless phones go to the top of the queue when there is heavy volume like after the quake. the fcc is working with phone companies to improve that and get it in place on a wide scale and regulate it. as for the cell phone outages, our question to the major carriers was simple. why wouldn't the networks handle that volume when people needed it the most. spokes people would only acknowledge there was congestion and said the networks didn't experience damage, but never said why they couldn't handle the volume. i spoke with this technology expert. >> couldn't the companies build more volume capability into their systems? >> of course they can. >> why don't they? >> no matter how much they bill, it will be situations. number two, if they build a capacity that can handle the peak load at the time of the earthquake, most of the time, most of that system remains idle. that will be expensive. >> that's not necessarily an indictment of the phone carriers. that would be expensive for them and also make our phones more expensive and our bills higher. experts say the government needs to create more spectrum for cell phone volume like building more lanes on congested highways. the government hasn't done that and the fcc is looking at ways to do that too. >> i was here during the earthquake and i was here during 9/11. as far as the cell phone goes, it was the same. just couldn't get through. the question is, what do you do? not use your phone if there is a big emergency? >> try your cell phone, but also try texting. apparently it uses a lot less band width and time. it's been more successful. after the earthquake, texts went through more than cell phone use did. there is no technology in place to text 911. that's something they are working on as well. we can't text to 911. >> that was fascinating. you are right. i was able to post on facebook or send an e-mail, but i couldn't use my phone to call anybody. >> you can do all the things and your phone gets jammed. you can't text 911. >> really interesting information. >> thank you. >> as rebels scrambled to find muammar gadhafi and an audio tape from the leader surfaces. we will tell what you it said. a fascinating discovery inside gadhafi's compound. picture after picture of a woman he professed to love. you are never going to guess who this is. you are in "the situation room." i know you're gonna love. 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[ woman announcing ] new beneful healthy fiesta. another healthful, flavorful beneful. if something is simply the color of gold, is it really worth more? we don't think so. chase sapphire preferred is a card of a different color. unlike others, you get twice the points on travel, and twice the points on dining, and no foreign transaction fees. call now or apply at chasesapphire.com/preferred. continuing our discussion here on the developments in libya, let's now bring in a noted middle east expert and senior fellow at the hoover institution. you have been watching the developments today. everybody is tracking where muammar gadhafi might be and night not be and rumors about where he is. he said he will die a martyr. do you believe him or do you think there is a possibility he may surrender? >> when the time comes they run away to their bank accounts and to begin new lives. i don't take the statements seriously. kadary is a deranged man and homicidal. we don't think he is suicidal. he values the life and the life of his family and children. that's about all he cares about. >> one of the strangest things we heard today is going through the personal evenings of gadhafi, there was some type of a photo album with many pictures of former secretary of state condoleezza rice. is this unusual to you? what do you make of it? >> secretary rice is an esteemed colleague at hoover. something of a friend. i don't think she is flattered. he is a very, very strange man. there is only one person possibly on the world stage more weird than muammar gadhafi. that's kim jung ilwho bears enormous comparison to this man. secretary rice did go to libya in 2007. as you remember the bush administration had bet that gadhafi changed his spots that he had become the reform and altered man. he turned in his weapons of mass destruction. he was visited by secretary rice and he was a very odd man with odd fixations. >> we reached out to former secretary rice to ask for for a comment and she said she will reserve comment until the release of her book-november 1st where she will talk about her meeting muammar gadhafi. it's clear he had an obsession and fascination with her. a good example is a statement he made regarding her. we can put it up and show you a graphic. he said i support my darling black african woman. i admire and am proud of the way she leans back and gives orders to the arab leaders. loi love her and i am proud of her because she's a black woman of african origin. does this sound like an obsession to you? >> i think so, but remember one thing. we are talking about a very, very odd man. he always fancied hills at one point as something of an african. he said at one point libya is an african country and has nothing to do with the arabs. he dubbed himself king of the kings and turned his back on the arabs. they gave the green light to the nato war against gadhafi. again, part of this obsession and fixation, part of this definition was this new discovery in africa, if you will. >> as we watch everything in libya, the question is what happens next in the little east? all eyes on syria. how do you see what's happening in libya affecting the situation in syria? >> that's a very, very good question. i think it's interesting. the people in syria were carrying blaplacards. the dictator in syria called the people germs while gadhafi loves to call his opponents rats. there was a placard that i liked seen in syria that said the germs of syria salute the rats of libya. i think it's the next thing, this struggle in libya. on the one hand the attention of the world is off of him. on the other, he can witness for himself what happens when a man goes to war against his country and when his country doesn't want him anymore. >> when you look at these two men, they are obviously similarities and obviously differences. which would you say? are they more similar or more different? >> i think there deep differences. gadhafi is a lone hunter. he is a man alone. when we see the tunnels he dug, we understand why he used r word rats. possibly his own condition. he doesn't have many people attached to him. in the case in syria, he has his own community. people who came from the mountains to the coast and damascus and who conquered and imposed their well on a sunni society. they will fight for him. in fighting for him, they fight for themselves. that is very, very different from gadhafi with his sons and terrible one daughter. the house of gadhafi is people who just were in it for themselves >> thanks so much. it's always a pleasure to hear your insights and certainly as we watch libya and continue to watch syria, we will be back in touch with you. >> thank you. >> a monster hurricane is heading towards the eastern seaboard. is the big apple prepared for what some are calling the storm of the century? we will find out. and we will take a closer look at the man who is following a legendary act. find out why some are saying he's the right man for the job. whether it can be done safely and responsibly. at exxonmobil we know the answer is yes. when we design any well, the groundwater's protected by multiple layers of steel and cement. most wells are over a mile and a half deep so there's a tremendous amount of protective rock between the fracking operation and the groundwater. natural gas is critical to our future. at exxonmobil we recognize the challenges and how important it is to do this right. 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[ male announcer ] if you can't afford your medication, astrazeneca may be able to help. a surprising new report on unemployment. mary snow is monitoring that and other top stories in "the situation room." what do you have? >> hey there, joe. a key reading on unemployment claims rose last week. the number of first time filings for unemployment benefits jump bide 5,000 to 417,000. the reason for the boost is the verizon strike. thousands, applied for benefits even though most states strikers are not eligible for benefits. kim jung il is visiting china. the news agency offers no details on the focus of his trip or who he is meeting hoochl visited russia for talks with russia's president. russian officials say kim agreed to return to six party nuclear talks without preconditions. lat of the round of six party negotiationsened in 2008. warren buffett is hosting a fund-raiser for president obama next month. he will speak at a forum moderated by the president's adviser. the nice should be a big boost for obama's campaign. the base price for a ticket is $10,000. and attending a vip reception with buffett requires a donation of $35,800. britain's prince harry will be in the united states for two months. the third in line to the british throne, he will be training with the british army. the training starts in britain and wraps up in california and arizona. the u.s. portion will include environmental training and firing and tactical exercises. >> if you have a cadillac escalade, a new report shows percentage wise, more erveg laids are stolen than any other vehicle. about 10 out of 1,000 of the suvs are targeted by thieves. the fourth year in a row the escalade tops that list. if you are talking volume, the 1994 honda accord is stolen most oven. another reason i'm glad i take the subway. >> i have to remember that. that's rough for people with escalades. they are expensive too. >> even harder. watch your back >> he is charged with being the next steve jobs, but does he have what it takes to be a technology genius? >> steve jobs, shoes impossible to fill. tim cook is taking over as apple's ceo following resignation yesterday. who is cook and will apple be the same with him at the helm. cnn's silicon valley correspondent, what do you think, dan? >> joe, even though steve jobs has been sick foor sometime, i think the news caught many off guard. if you are going to make a change, now is the perfect time to do so given apple's astou astounding success. >> if you look at apple's revenue, the mac made up 33% or a third of the revenue for last year. >> as chief operating officer, tim cook handled the envious balance sheets and oversaw the supply chain making sure apple acquired the components to meet the public's fierce appetite. insiders say what made him so effective in the role, he negotiated deals that under cut the competition. >> he is one of the people who had high profit margin and made sure that their product supply chain has been running really well. apple has been able to get phones for the iphone and ipad and able to get it at lower prices. get it at a very significant advantage. >> he joined the company after apple was teetering on bankruptcy. he is a well respected capitalist and wonder what is apple will look like. >> his design instincts and attention to detail will start to -- new products will start to come out they may not have had much of that as much as the past. that will be the real test of the organization. >> at 50, cook has been known as a workaholic and fitness buff. >> all of apple is very, very excited to bring the iphone to verizon's 93 million customers. >> he has been more visible though it's not clear he will be the to fill steve jobs' shoes on stage which are important to the apple brand. in the past that role has gone to phil schiller, apple's chief marking officer. cook is not known for a visionary like steve jobs, but a hard nosed executive whose strength lies behind the scenes n. a statement to ump employees, cook writes i want you to be confident that apple will not change. i chiris the principals and values and a steve built a culture unlike any in the world. it is in our dna. >> let's not forget that steve jobs will stay on as chainman and they know his current state of health. in any event, people here on campus are welcoming the fact that tim cook is the 1 to succeed steve jobs. he has done well in the filling in while he is on this medical leave. the ultimate question, what's are things going to look like in years when the current product cycle goes through. who is going to be the visionary at the top. that's the open question. >> we know from your stand that design instincts are going to be one of the question marks, if you will. what do we think apple might miss with steve jobs being outside of the job? >> she the one who has this incredible attention for detail. we will show this throughout the day. these are simple iphone head phones. i ran the "new york times" that steve jobs actually wanted to make sure there was a clasp here to keep the cords in check. tim cook it not that person. he's a dollars and cents guy. apple has a great product chief and he is the best in the world at what he does when it comes to design. you missed that at the top someone who can veto and make sure the features are recorded. it will be interesting for everybody who has been touched to see what happens next. it may be one of the most powerful cities in the world. >> it's one of the most powerful cities in the world, but in the case of a mass hurricane like irene, new york city could be in serious trouble. mary snow is working this part of the story. mary? >> joe, hurricanes are not common here in new york. that's what worries some who follow hurricanes closely. it won't take a major hurricane to cause serious flooding in some parts of the city. if anyone is worried about a hurricane hitting new york, it's coastal geology professor nicholas koch. to understand why, he took us to south hampton, new york. >> this is actually where the 1938 hurricane broke through and made the bay a branch of the ocean. >> koch said most new yorkers forget it was here that a powerful category three hurricane made landfall in 1938. it was called the long island express and caused widespread damage even in new york city 70 miles away. >> even in new york city is spared a direct hit. >> it will have massive flooding. yeah. >> for years he has been sowning the alarm about how vulnerable new york city is. it could trigger massive flooding in particularly lower manhattan. consider the simulation showing what a category two hurricane could do to a tunnel linking brooklyn and manhattan. they mapped out worst case scenarios. a category one hurricane, for example, could flood the subway station at the southern tip of manhattan with 3 1/2 feet of water. a category two storm could jfk airport under 5 and a half feet. >> given the population density in the northeast. >> high winds are also a big concern. city officials have evacuation plans at the ready. despite all the preparations, it's not the hurricane he is most worried about. >> what's your biggest concern? >> the new yorker because they don't listen. you can tell a new yorker, but you can't tell them very much. >> i can attest to that. it's still too early to know the impact on new york city. they are assuming the worst. they are holding a news conference about plans for evacuations. the mayor a short time ago said that a certain group of people will be evacuated starting tomorrow. take a listen. >> so notifying the other hospitals in the low-lying areas as well as nursing homes and senior centers in the areas that they must, i repeat the word must evacuate beginning tomorrow and complete the process by 8:00 pardon me tomorrow night unless they get permission to stay in place based on the ability of the particular facility to keep operating during hurricane conditions. >> mayor bloomberg talking about evacuation for nursing homes and hospitals. on saturday morning we will make a determination if residents should evacuate. another question is mass transit and the impact on mass transit >> thanks so much for that. jack cafferty is asking should students be paid to attend school? your e-mails next. free 'cause that's how it ought to be my brother credit 'cause you'll need a loan for one thing or another score 'cause they break it down to one simple number that you can use dot to take a break because the name is kinda long com in honor of the internet that it's on put it all together at the end of the song it gives you freecreditscore-dot-com, and i'm gone... offer applies with enrollment in freecreditscore.com hey, jessica, jerry neumann with a policy question. jerry, how are you doing? fine, i just got a little fender bender. oh, jerry, i'm so sorry. i would love to help but remember, you dropped us last month. yeah, you know it's funny. it only took 15 minutes to sign up for that new auto insurance company but it's taken a lot longer to hear back. is your car up a pole again? [ crying ] i miss you, jessica! jerry, are you crying? no, i just, i bit my tongue. [ male announcer ] get to a better state. state farm. [ male announcer ] get to a better state. if something is simply the color of gold, is it really worth more? we don't think so. chase sapphire preferred is a card of a different color. unlike others, you get twice the points on travel, and twice the points on dining, and no foreign transaction fees. call now or apply at chasesapphire.com/preferred. time to check back with jack cafferty. >> should students be paid it attend school? paid to attend school. bill in new mexico, where only the troublesome students get paid, how are they going to feel? 101 things we ought to be doing and paying kids to go there is number 102. any reason to get kids to stay there is more specifications and a certain gpa, etc. cat writes i think we ought to spend monoimplantable birth controls so we don't have 12-year-olds having babies. parents who are concern and grant writes we ought to have parents whose can kids are not skipping school. we should pay them to stay home for the rest of their lives. you would pay $100 to a student from camden, new jersey if that student was more likely than any other district to land in a correctional institution costing you $45,000 a year, wouldn't you? dee writes why not? we pay peek not to work. let them learn the handout routine so they are better-equipped to milk the system. the cow is going dry. go to my blog our or facebook page. >> my folks used to pay me to start a company or whatever. i would go and shovel snow and they pay me to shovel snow. >> incentive, right? >> i don't know, i was raised that education was a privilege. a lot of people in the world would love the opportunity to go to school. we have free public schools for the kids and some don't want to go. granted some come from troubled homes and i understand that, but when i was a kid if i said to my folks as we alluded to earlier, i'm not going to school unless you pay me, my dad said you can use the money to get your teeth fixed because i'm going to anything on them out of your face.