confident dick durbin of illinois and one of romney's possible vp picks senator kelly ayotte from new hampshire. >> and mitt romney's company were pioneers in outsourcing jobs. >> barack obama's record is the worst record since the depression. >> and we will talk about those ads with our cnn political analyst ron brownstein and "time" magazine's michael sherer. an incumbent president still in peril, and measuring optimism about the economy has fallen to the lowest level this year, and personal spending cooled as shoppers cut back on items big and small from cars to groceries and the broadest measure of economic health, the gross domestic product grew at an anemic 1.5% in the second quarter. not good news for president obama 100 days away from the election. and joining us this morning is senator dick durbin. i want to put the gdpp fod -- g figures the gross domestic product figure, because it has been up, but not to the point where it can bring down unemployment. that is a 3% growth rate, but we have a 1.5% in the last quarter. no president in modern history has beeen re-elected with these kinds of numbers and what is your concern? >> well, ki say this, more than 26 straight months of private sector job creation, and many of the jobs that we have lost in the public sector the president has appealed to congress to help him to make sure that there are firefighters and teachers and we have had no cooperation from the republicans, because they are determined to keep the unemployment numbers low. >> you know how this works -- >> well, the president accepts responsibility, but he also believes we are on the right track and returning to the economic policies of the bush administration which romney endorses would plunge us back into a recession situation where we are giving tax breaks to the wealthiest in america and seeing a deficit out of control and not creating strength in the middle-class, the working families of america and that is really the future and where we ought to pin our economic policies. >> so you are not concerned about the president's re-election prospects? >> oh, no. let me tell you that this is going to be a very close election and we take it seriously and we are going to have the up s dow s and downs i and the people are moving in the right direction and they want to keep us moving forward and that the key. look at what happened this week. the president's tax cuts in the united states senate passed with a 51/48 vote to make sure that the families making less than 250,000 tlrz a year have no ulg kriz in -- $250,000 a year and have no increase. and those making under $250,000 will not have any tax cuts whatsoever if we retain the republican policies. everyone in washington right now is talking as though they had nothing to do with the deal that came up with the so-called sequestration by which there is across the boards and huge cuts in the defense of $500 billion in defense and $500 billion in nondiscretionary budget, and everyone acts as if this was not your doing, but the fact of the matter is that this deal passed 74-26 to put the sequestration in place and most of those were democra democrats, including yourself, so isn't there a responsibility to fix this since you all voted for this? >> absolutely. there is a case of republican amnesia on the floor of the senate. we have the republican senate leaders coming to the floor and blasting sequestration that they voted for. they said if the super committee failed -- >> you voted for it? >> of course i e did, because here is the alternative, the tea parties and their followers in the senate said they were prepared to shutdown the economy america and default for the first time and instead we came up with a bipartisan approach that was brokered with the republican leaders and the president to say we will put together a souper committee to give them the responsibility to cut the deficit by $10 trillion in ten years and to vote for it we avoid a economic shutdown and now here is the good news with the president's leadership, we can come together. there is a bipartisan answer here to reduce the deficit and still create environment for economic growth. >> well, it has not been much public indication of that, and let me ask you, given that, 74 republicans and democrats voted for this bill which now puts the country at this fiscal cliff that republicans and democrats for different reasons say will be disastrous, but siisn't it n incumbent for those who voted for it stay in town and fix it. you know the schedule, senator, you know you are gone for august and barely working and campaigning in september and october. don't you guys have a responsibility to stay here in town and fix it? >> i can tell you that candy, meetings are taking place this last week and before, and our gang of eight an equally divided democrats and republicans sitting around the table and working on the solution. we will continue to. we believe there is a responsible reasonable way to move forward, and we are going to try to put something on the table to be considered. let me be honest with you as well, in the next 100 days before the election, the political environment is not one for compromise and negotiation, but if we are prepared the day after the election to move forward with a plan that restores confidence in the economy and the able of congress to react to it, it is going to be a positive thing for us, and i think that we can do it. >> and the truth is that both sides see this as a good campaign issue, correct? >> well, maybe. i'm not sure i view it as a campaign issue so much as a desperation that we have not succe successfully addressed the deficit and growth, and many of of us, democrats and republicans and all 46 of us in the senate have come together to say there has to be a way out of it. i voted for the bowles/simpson approach, and puts everything on the table, and keeps revenue and p programs like medicare strong, but takes an honest look at how to make them stronger and these are the things that we need to do and we can do let. >> let me turn you to the role of foreign policy and commander in chief. as you nknow mitt romney is in israel and in advance of the trip, one of the advisers dan s senor had to say about the subject of iran and the development of nuclear weapons and dan said this, if israel has to take action on its own in order to stop iran from developing that capability, meaning nuclear weapons capability, the governor would respect that decision. do you have it now, a nd they emphasized diplomacy, and this is a last resort, but do you have a problem with that stateme statement? >> of course, the object of the romney trip was to show how sure-footed he was when it came to foreign policy and he came stumbling out of london after the statements on the olympics and now he is headed to israel for a political fund-raising event which he has closed to the public. in the meantime, the statement that was made that you just quoted really puts in perspective what president obama has achieved. he has put together the strongest coalition of countries around the world to put pressure on iran not to develop a nuclear weapon and it includes china and russia, and he has invested american resources in the iron dome to protect the israeli people, and he has worked clo closely with them to make sure that ton shakeable alliance is going to be there for israel for years to come. so i think that our position from the president's point of view has been a solid one. >> but do you think that in the end that if diplomacy is, as iran moves closer and closer and there is a window after which israel can't do anything about it, should the u.s. stand with israel if israel makes that decision that they can no longer wa wait? >> the united states will stand with israel, but this president has understood that the two choices between all-out war and iran having a nuclear weapon are choices that we don't want to face. that is why he has put the strongest economic sanctions in the history on iran. they are working. we believe they are putting pressure on them to move towards eliminating the threat in the middle east and working toward peace this that region. it is the president's leadership in this that has made the difference. i understand that mitt romney is on the political tour doing this fund-raiser in israel, but the point is that the president has had to sit down as he has over and over again with prime m minister netanyahu to work out a sound policy to avoid prospect of war. >> dick durbin, senator from illinois, thank you. >> thank you. what would the president do different on the policy front? and win fifty thousand dollars. congratulations you are our one millionth customer. people don't like to miss out on money that should have been theirs. that's why at ally we have the raise your rate 2-year cd. you can get a one-time rate increase if our two-year rate goes up. if your bank makes you miss out, you need an ally. ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense. with two times the points onake lunch dining in restaurants,ch? 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>> well, i think that he is for american exceptionalism, and strong foreign policies, and he won't apologize for it. and the first foreign policy speech by president obama was to apologize, and mitt romney will not apologize. he will make our country stronger. >> this did not help the london leg of the trip? >> well, candy, stuff always happens on the campaign trail, and governor romney said that he was confident in the red i diness, but what is missing is that when salt lake city was in trouble, mitt romney stepped in and served the community and face it, he had to go in there and clean up somebody else's mess and not a sure thing. there were financial scandals and he went in and served the country and salt lake city was a success and america was proud. now we need someone to clean up barack obama's mess and mitt romney is the person to do it. >> i know that is the message, but let me move on to something that you just said that you believe that president obama has conducted a weak foreign policy, but we are talking about a man who upped the drone war to get at al qaeda operatives both in pakistan and yemen well beyond whatever george bush ever did, and this is a man who gave the okay to get bin laden who is of course now deceased. he has wound down the war in iraq and winding down the war in afghanistan and more important ly for americans, there have been no attacks on u.s. soil since president obama took office, and what is weak about that? >> well, i certainly give him credit for osama bin laden and the drone attacks, but candy, be clear where we are. in syria, he has outsourced leadership to the united nations, and is it a surprise that china and russia don't want to support freedom in syria? i mean, look at the re-set po policy, and russia is basically thumbing their nose at the united states of america and continuing to provide arms to the assad regime, and in addition to that, this week a report at the end of the week that the russian naval chief that russia was actually looking at opening additional bases including one in cuba. we are not stronger. the relationship with israel when the people of teheran stood in the streets of 2009 and asked for freedom, the president did not speak up for them. i can tell you that when mitt romney -- >> they imposed sanctions. >> he was drug to the table, to the economic sanctions. i mean, you can, the congressional leaders of both sides of the aisle are the ones who pushed stronger economic sanctions and took years into the presidency to get the tougher economic sanctions in place. >> let me show you the nbc poll showing that who is better to handle foreign policy, and american voters have said 47% barack obama and only 37% for mitt romney. clearly there is something that they like better here. >> well, if you begin your foreign policy by apologizing to cairo, and ask the israelis if they feel safer, and iran is closer to having nuclear weapons than when this president came into office and we could have been tougher on the sanctions and he could have done it sooner and certainly to think of negotiating with teheran which is how he came into the presidency, that has obviously not worked. >> in the fiscal cliff category, you voted against the bill that actually set up this -- >> i did. >> -- sequestration that now everyone is saying this is armageddon if we do this. but right that you have warned that for defense spending this would be terrible for our veteran veterans and that sort of thing. if it comes down to, because certainly the democrats seem dug in, as does the president, may come down to are you worried about the defense cuts or more worried about the tax increases about wealthier americans, at least the income, and you may have to choose about that between defense spending cuts or keeping the tax levels where they are? >> well, candy, it makes me sick that some in washington and particularly some of the senate democrats want to play and even the president unfortunately want to use our military as a bargaining chip. and last recently mitch mcconnell and eric cantor and john boehner wrote a letter to the president asking him to come to the table to resolve this issue of sequestration for the military. i'm calling on the president to do it. i am willing to sit down with members on both sides of the aisle and resolve it before the election, because if we wait until after the election, it is not just the national security that secretary panetta said we would be shooting ourselves in the head, and undermining our national security, but in terms of the industrial base with nearly 1 million jobs. >> and i asked the same question for the democrats, here are the stakes for you. the stakes for the republicans, do you want the horrible awful defense cuts or do you want to protect the tax cuts for the wealthier income, the $250,000? >> well, that is not the choice. where is the commander in chief on this choice? seriously. here he is talking about giving a speecho the military, and why isn't he right now at the table with members of both sides of the aisle resolving this? he could lead this effort and he has been awol on this. i'm calling ing on him to do t. we are leaving on a tour. and why isn't he he in washington? this is too important. >> and beth myers you may or may not know her, but she is heading up the vp search, and she put out a tweet recently and she does not tweet, and she is putting out the names for the vp, and the first name on that is kelly ayotte. have you been vet ted by the romney campaign, and something that you are interested in? >> well, candy, it is an honor to be mentioned, but addressing new hampshire in these fiscal issues is where my attention is right now, and governor romney will pick who he feels is best for the country. >> and you are a penn state alum, and -- >> yes. >> and very tough or just right? >> well, tough on penn state, and you have to be tough on sexual abuse. when i was attorney general i had to go after the catholic church and you cannot condone this behavior. >> dwlung, kelly ayotte. >> thank you, kelly. >> we will have more of mitt romney's talk in jerusalem, but next, president obama and mitt romney going for broke in campaign ad wars. ♪ why not make lunch more than just lunch? with two times the points on dining in restaurants, you may find yourself asking why not, a lot. chase sapphire preferred. there's more to enjoy. i've never written a fan letter before, but you've done the impossible. you made gluten free cereals in a whole bunch of yummy flavors. cinnamon chex and honey nut chex are two of our favorites. when my husband found the chocolate one, we were in cereal heaven. the only problem is, with so many great flavors, you're making it very hard to choose. your fans, the mcgregor family. 'cause we love chex. ♪ [ male announcer ] and now try new gluten free apple cinnamon chex. new gluten free by what's getting done. measure commitment the twenty billion dollars bp committed has helped fund economic and environmental recovery. long-term, bp's made a five hundred million dollar commitment to support scientists studying the environment. and the gulf is open for business - the beaches are beautiful, the seafood is delicious. last year, many areas even reported record tourism seasons. the progress continues... but that doesn't mean our job is done. we're still committed to seeing this through. if you live in one of eight swing states where most presidential ads are running and running and running, we apologize in advance. >>. ♪ oh beautiful for spacious skies ♪ ♪ for amber waves of grain ♪ for purple mountains majes majesty ♪ >> the amount of money spent and the number of ads running are mind boggling and bottom line, you are looking at the most expensive ad campaign in history in a presidential race, but it is not just about the money, but the neg i.v. the ti. >> friends, donors and campaign supporters and special interest groups, where did the obama stimulus money go? >> of the 11 individual ad s aired by the romney side nine were negative and all totaled 99.5% of republican ad spending this week was for negative ads. on the president's side, 21 ads ran and 17 negative making up 91% of democratic ad buys. it would be easy to question the bang for the buck and erase what is stagnant, but the overall numbers don't tell the whole story, and consider the turnout rules on election day, and that voters go to the polls for two reasons, they are either passionate about their candidate winning or passionate about the other candidate losing. now, look at these numbers from the "wall street journal" poll, and over to the course of the last three months, the voters with negative feelings about president obama is up 6%. likewise, a 6% jump in those who feel very negative about mitt romney. next up, ken goldstein of cantor media ad group, and michael scherer of "time" magazine and ron brownstein. our one millio. people don't like to miss out on money that should have been theirs. that's why at ally we have the raise your rate 2-year cd. you can get a one-time rate increase if our two-year rate goes up. if your bank makes you miss out, you need an ally. ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense. your doctor will say get smart about your weight. i tried weight loss plans... but their shakes aren't always made for people with diabetes. that's why there's glucerna hunger smart shakes. they have carb steady, with carbs that digest slowly to help minimize blood sugar spikes. and they have six grams of sugars. with fifteen grams of protein to help manage hunger... look who's getting smart about her weight. 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[ male announcer ] glucerna hunger smart. those little things for you, life's about her. but your erectile dysfunction - that could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medications, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess with cialis. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or if you have any allergic reactions such as rash, hives, swelling of the lips, tongue or throat, or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a 30-tablet free trial. joining me is ken goldstein, senator editor of kantar media magazine and joining us is cnn correspondent ron brownstein, and michael scherer from "time" magazine, and a qualified group to talk about ads. so ken, let me start with you, the ads and the assumption only in swing states that both sides are trying to gain voters. my hypothesis is that they are trying to galvanize their own voters. which is it? >> well shgs, i think it is a l bit of both, but i'm not going to disag grree with the host he. you are right. >> that is a smart man. >> and in a two-person race, people don't have to love mitt romney to vote for mitt romney, and people don't have to love barack obama to vote for barack obama, and what the campaigns are doing a little bit and talking about swing states and swing voters and they are trying to mobilize the base. and what the obama campaign is trying to especially do, even though this election is very much about the president, and like all presidential elections are when you have an an inco incumbent running, this campaign is very much about mitt romney. even if the president is in a difficult situation and if the economy was doing better, he would be -elere-elected, he wou win, and if it is worse, he would lose. and mitt romney has to define mitt romney before everyone else defines mitt romney. >> and this is an rnc ad that fascinated me first and all of the times i have seen since being from virginia. will et me plme play a clip of >> president obama came to the white house with big plans, he'd halve the deficit, and strengthen the economy and lower unemployment, but what did we get? national debt $18 trillion and climbing and unemployment for 40 straight months and economic crisis with no end in sight. >> i feel like this is therapy for the voters in some way. right. i know you really, really like him, but it is okay to vote against him. >> the north star as ken suggested the race involving a incumbent president is the president. he can run with three points above that poll, and not much above it, and primarily a referendum on him, but the other half is the challenger acceptable. can obama get a few million people who are disappoint ed in him to say that i would prefer mitt romney even less. that is the focus of the obama campaigns advertising and why the heavily trying to disqualify romney, but obama's favorable ratings are above his approval ratings, so people who like him, but not approve of the job, and the rnc is saying it is okay to think he is a good person, but it is okay to vote against him. that is what the ad is designed to do. >> and this is, we know you like the president and okay to vote against him, and the flipside, we know you don't like mitt romney, but he'll do a better job. and obama has won that likability match right now. both sides are acknowledging that, but the question is whether the voters go to the polls will think that they get a better result out of mitt romney. >> it is an unusual circumstance, because a couple of pollsters ran for me the views of the undecided of romney and obama and if you go back to '08 and '04 and both were undecided on kerry an bush and obama, and not only is it surprising that they are down on the president's performance, which is not surprising, but they are also down on romney which is unusual dynamic here, and the one that is the strongest read for obama trying to hold on to his job. >> and let me bring you in here, ken, because i am advised of a romney adviser saying to me at one point, we don't need the voters to hate president obama, we need them to like us a little more. when, and yet, the ads are 99.5% negative which is not a way to get people to like you. so when is this following a rhythm at all? do you expect to see the more positive ads at some point? when does that all click in? >> well, it is one of the things that surprised me about the c campaign and it does not surprise me that the obama campaign has gone so uniformly negative on mitt romney, but i expected more of a positive message track also coming from romney and the republicans. if you go back to look at 2004 and many people have said and it is accurate that this is in some ways a replay of the 2004 election. the kerry campaign actually almost solely aired positive ads and they left the negative advertising to the democrat outside groups, there and in fact, if you talk to the kerry people from 2004, they will say that some of the mistakes that the democratic outside groups made was going so negative on george bush, because ron said, you won't change barack obama's approval numbers by much, and to the extent that barack obama's approval numbers are going to be changed, it is by reality and not seeing ads. so i expect very soon and certainly in the lead-up to the republican convention and after the republican convention, a g significant positive romney track. >> and let me now play this obama ad that i have seen i can't count the times. ♪ oh beautiful for spacious skies for amber waves of grain ♪ ♪ for purple mountains majesty ♪ above the fruited plains ♪ america america >> so you get the point here. we should add by the way that while the ad is true and we have seen it in mitt romney's tax returns, nothing illegal was done and that is what all of the fact checkers are saying. but it trustruck me at first th is a pretty good memorable ad. >> it is probably one of the best of the cycle and the best sound design of any of the cycle and the message there is this guy is not on your side. he fights for other people. that is what they are trying to push. it is interesting that in some of the polls the negatives for romney have gone down, but you haven't seen as much of a move who will do better on the economy. there is a little slice here in which an ad like that which say s that mitt romney, you know, is parking the money in the cayman's and using the fancy tricks that you don't have access to, doesn't necessarily automatically argue against his ability on the economy. if i'm looking for a banker, i'm not looking for mr. smith, but somebody who is cut throat and getting the jobe done for me and in a similar way that voters when they go to the polls if economy is the only issue will look for the guy who knows how the game is plays and push the rules as far as he can and not maybe likability, because he won't win that, but obama will still win there. >> and the tag line crystallizes the argument, he is not the solution but the problem. and he embodies why you are less economically secure and an ad like that is aimed basically to the working class voters who has a working class nationalist message and obama is facing dismal numbers even with this ad campaign, and he will have the lowest numbers from a working class voters since walter mondale, and the pivotal is the white collar upper class voters and we don't know how they respond to that. obama leads on who will be better for the middle class, and romney is leading for who is better for the e kconomy overal. >> and i need the last quick answer from you which is from your knowledge of how these things go at the end of the day in november, the day after the election, how much money will have been spent on ads? >> we will have over $3 billion spent on spot local television. that is in all races from dog catcher to president. when you ad in the cable buys, that number will be more like $3.6 billion. >> somebod somewhere is happy. >> and it is go paying to be negative. >> somebody is supposed to be getting rich and i guess it is us, right? ken, thank you. we will continue this discussion and plus an update on the military veterans and service members who are lost in the system. now get an incredible offer on the powerful, efficient c250 sport sedan with an agility control sport-tuned suspension. but hurry before this opportunity...disappears. ♪ the mercedes-benz summer event ends july 31st. ♪ 8% every 10 years.age 40, we c start losing muscle -- wow. wow. but you can help fight muscle loss with exercise and ensure muscle health. i've got revigor. what's revigor? it's the amino acid metabolite, hmb to help rebuild muscle and strength naturally lost over time. 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[ major nutrition ] ensure. nutrition in charge! time for a check of the morning's headlines. mitt romney took a break from meeting israeli officials today to visit one of the western wall, one of the holiest places. and he is accompanied by the same rabbi that accompanied barack obama as a presidential candidate. we will have more on this at noon eastern. and officials are warning a massacre could occur in the syrian city of aleppo. syria's foreign minister met with his iranian counter part today with both of them criticizing what they called an international plot against the syrian regime. florida republican senator was supposed to appear at a campaign rally for mitt romney in iowa, but he could not because the plane he was on made an emergency landing in albuquerque, hmm hmm. he did address the ral i will by phone, and an albuquerque spokesman said that his plane may have had an electrical is e issue. and some news from a top diplomat in afghanistan, american policy makers should heed the lessons of the past while weighing military options in the future. ambassador crocker who is retiring at the end of the month says that the leaders should remember the law of unintended consequences and recognize the limits of america's actual capabilities. those are your top stories. the secretaries of defense and veterans affairs testified this week on capitol hill about a problem we have tried to focus on here at "state of the union", our military men and women lost in the system. >> the reality is that not, not all of them, not all of them are getting the kind of care and benefits that they should be get. >> and that is true of both veterans and active military. we first heard of iraq war soldier josh elza in may when his family contacted us. they said that josh had suffered frontal and lobe injuries after an injury in iraq. after a year-long wait, it was determined that josh could not be fit in combat, bow ther roles. he was ordered redeployed to korea, and his family believes that his should be disqualified from ooktive duty and trying to work through the system to get help. they report this week that josh has been transported from colorado to bethesda, maryland, where josh is being evaluated. the message from his brother, ricky burk, the fight now is for yourself. >> our soldiers join the military voluntarily to protect the people, but yet when the united states army stands up to protect one of their own, they turn their back. there are many soldiers going through the same thing as my family, but they don't know who to go to for help or if there is help out there. for josh's story and soldiers not getting the right medical attention and the families who don't have a voice can now speak out and get the help they deserve. >> on the veterans front, the v.a. says it is putting in a new procedure to speed up processing of benefit claims. as of last month 870,000 cases were backlogged at the v.a. and two-thirds have been pending four months or more. the v.a. says that the new process will be fully in place by the end of 2013. we will keep following the stories of josh elza and others and continue to pursue a time for the secretary of veterans affairs to join us for a conversation. next up, will mitt romney's trip overseas make a difference in november? well today, there's a new new york state. one that's working to attract businesses and create jobs. a place where innovation meets determination... and businesses lead the world. the new new york works for business. find out how it can work for yours at thenewny.com. last season was the gulf's best tourism season in years. in florida we had more suntans... in alabama we had more beautiful blooms... in mississippi we had more good times... in louisiana we had more fun on the water. last season we broke all kinds of records on the gulf. this year we are out to do even better... and now is a great time to start. our beatches are even more relaxing... the fishing's great. so pick your favorite spot on the gulf... and come on down. brought to you by bp and all of us who call the gulf home. you see us, at the start of the day. on the company phone list that's a few names longer. you see us bank on busier highways. on once empty fields. everyday you see all the ways all of us at us bank are helping grow our economy. lending more so companies and communities can expand, grow stronger and get back to work. everyday you see all of us serving you, around the country, around the corner. us bank. when they taste the food that you cooked it does something to your heart. i think what people like most about the grilled food is the taste. the flavor comes from that oak wood... the shrimp, the fresh fish, the steaks. it locks in the flavor, it seals in the juices so that when you put the fork in it, it just goes through it like butter. 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[ charles ] my name is charles himple, i'm a red lobster grill master and i sea food differently. so with us is "time" magazine's michael scherer and political analyst ron brownstein, and foreign trip for mitt romney, does it make a difference? >> so far not going well for him. he only had to do one thing on the world stage and he has not done that, and maybe doing better in israel, and slightly better than in england. in terms of israel, i don't know how much it makes a difference in the end, but the jewish vote is not very influential, and will go to democrats in the end. when you talk to the republicans, it is the evangelical base, and that is where romney needs help and this trip could help him there. >> and i thought that friday encapsulated a difficult day for both sides. on one hand you had "mitt the twit" onheadlines in london,und the campaign. on the other hand, you have economic numbers of only 1.5% growth in the second quarter, gdp, showing where obama remains vulnerable. clearly if you look at the overall economy, it would be, as jackie toms once said, as historic for obama to get re-elected as it was for him to get elected as the first african-american in the first place. on the other hand you have in romney a challenger who's not yet shown he can seize the opportunity and this kind of difficult trip for him is just another example of that slight to significant underperformance. >> what changes this mix? >> the debates probably. i think we're -- we're sort of coasting at this point, and you're going to have negatives, both campaigns say, look, the floors are high for both candidates. there's not much to move. one obama person told me he thinks in swing states the number of romney voters could be three billion people. talking billions of dollars in advertising, talking three billion people -- >> call them up and send a check and be done with. it let me end where we began, on the ads and whethre they're playing. north carolina, virginia, florida, ohio, new hampshire, nevada, iowa, colorado. eight states. is that what this race is about? >> pretty much. when i first started looking at presidential politics in the 1980s, the tipping point was always the same. the rust belt, pennsylvania, ohio, michigan, wisconsin, iowa. there are now two paths to 270. there are still the rust belt states, they matter a lot. but if you look at the map, you have a southeast conference and southwest conference. virginia, north carolina, florida. colorado, nevada,new mexico isn't on the list. states that except for new mexico were solidly republican in the '70s and '80s, even into the '90s. now swing states because of changing demography. more minorities, college-educated whites. that's the reality. it is not only that monsters of the midway that decide the race. there's also a sunbelt path to 270. probably one that's more accessible for obama given his difficulties with working class whites. >> interesting to me, pennsylvania no longer on this list. mitt romney not spending any money that we can see. especially this month. minimal money, but still money from the obama campaign. is pennsylvania done? >> unless something changes. but democrats have a huge registration advantage in pennsylvania. that's probably going to be decisive. i think the cliffs notes version of the swing state calculus now is obama needs to pick up ohio, florida, virginia. and if he doesn't, he's going to have a difficult time. if he's able to get one or more, he's in a good position. >> if pennsylvania is off the table with michigan and wisconsin also, they are part of what i've called the blue wall. 18 states that have voted democratic in the past five consecutive elections. the most they've won that often since roosevelt and truman. 242 electoral college votes. if romney can't chip away anything in that list and then -- and obama can add the two southwest states where he's probably strongest, colorado and nevada, all you need is one more thing. >> i need one-word answers from you because we have 15 seconds. what state that'son this list might come into play? >> boy. >> for romney, i think looking -- i think he needs to put one of the 18 blue wall states, michigan most likely or wisconsin. >> tough. i don't see it happening. hike it could -- there could be another state added. you have a race that's static, going to be narrowing. not getting broader. i don't see it going that direction. >> thank you -- thank you both -- >> my real job at "national journal." yes. >> thank you very much. next, what's old is new and what's new is old in politics. a look at the first campaign ad ever filmed. [ male announcer ] now you can swipe... scroll... tap... pinch... and zoom... in your car. introducing the all-new cadillac xts with cue. ♪ don't worry. we haven't forgotten, you still like things to push. [ engine revs ] the all-new cadillac xts has arrived, and it's bringing the future forward. four course seafood feast choose your soup salad entrée plus dessert! all just $14.99. come into red lobster and sea food differently. visit redlobster.com now for an exclusive $10 coupon. good through august 5th for an exclusive $10 coupon. this is new york state. we built the first railway, the first trade route to the west, the greatest empires. then, some said, we lost our edge. well today, there's a new new york state. one that's working to attract businesses and create jobs. a place where innovation meets determination... and businesses lead the world. the new new york works for business. find out how it can work for yours at thenewny.com. [ feedback ] attention, well, everyone. you can now try snapshot from progressive free for 30 days. just plug this into your car, and your good driving can save you up to 30%. you could even try it without switching your insurance. why not give it a shot? carry on. now you can test-drive snapshot before you switch. visit progressive.com today. and finally, if you think politics are nastier, the issues are tougher, that generally things are altogether different now than the good old days of high-minded democracy in action, then you need to visit the library of congress. >> what we're looking at now is the oldest campaign ad. this was shot in 1912 for the democratic national committee on behalf of woodrow wilson. this is the earliest political ad in our voluminous collection. we have over 1.5 million items in our collection. the title is "the old way and the new." and in this film, the republican party are the party of the wealthy. the that's right of of the moneyed interests. the democrat, woodrow wilson is, portrayed as the champion of the working man. ♪ >> the interesting thing about the old way and the new is that it really proves the more things change, the more that they stay the same. we're in the members room of the library of congress next to the congressional reading room. i think this is one of the most beautiful spaces in the library. we're delighted to have this presentation here today. >> and this was a telephone pole that the republicans did in 1952 trying to get a sense of what people's issues were, how many people were paying attention to what issues. and what's interesting about it is that you essentially could ask the same questions today because they're asking do you feel that there's too much -- there's dangerous waste of taxpayer dollars and government spending, how often do you actually think about these things. so a lot of the questions are very milar to what you'd probably be asked if you were taking a telephone poll or online poll today. >> but we all know some things have really changed. now on election nights we track red states and blue states and any statistical breakout you'd like to see on high-tech, interactive gadgets, the latest at your fingertops. top that. >> one here that's produced by "newsweek" magazine in 1948. quite large, and you would probably put this up in your school or your -- even at home. and probably came with the magazine. and you know, you'd sit and keep track of the electoral votes. though things are a little bit faster then, you've got radio and everything. again, the idea is you're actually there writing down to see who -- keeping score. see who winds. >> a map and a