tie. doesn't change the delegate count. mitt romney saying in his statement this, the results from the iowa caucus revealed a virtual tie. i would like to thank the iowa republican party for their careful attention to the caucus process. people might want to talk about that a little bit and recognize rick santorum for his strong performance in the state. great start to defeating president obama in iowa and else where in the general election. he leaves out a big thing which is, really, is he 34 points behind rick santorum and does it matter? let's get to shannon travis in des moines this morning and also bring in our panelists. let's start at the far end this morning. roland martin, finally, has joined us here. ron brownstein back with us, again. shannon, update us here on what happened and what the implications could be. >> this is a bombshell. let's say that. this was already, soledad, the closest vote in iowa caucus history and mitt romney, we thought he claimed iowa and then he went on to claim new hampshire. he was the first nonincumbent to claim both those races in history. this reverses that. does it reverse, would it reverse the general momentum that mitt romney has? let's think about this for a second. if this had been the case that rick santorum won the iowa caucuses by 34 votes, by all intents and purposes, mitt romney was still looking very, very well in new hampshire. yes, santorum might have had momentum going into new hampshire, but probably still going to be mitt romney's race and the race, still, as it is now, largely decided between those two people and maybe even throw newt gingrich in the mix in south carolina as it is now. would it change the story art? likely not, but it definitely changes the historical perspective of it now with mitt romney not having won both. being the first person to do that in history. >> all right, shannon, thank you. it's so interesting, he called it a bomb shell. >> i call it an embarrassment. >> it is, ultimately, how did that happen that they could possibly days later say and the way it happened. >> the standards of this election. this is a party-run process not uniform from precinct to precinct and in fairness of them, it's extraordinary close. i remember during the long recount in florida and election officials said to me at one point, we finally reached an election where the margin of victory was less than the margin of error and that is what we have, again, in iowa. we probably don't know who won iowa. >> the iowa gop telling us that at 9:15 there will be an official announcement. >> which is incredibly embarrassing. >> doesn't matter. >> i would disagree on shannon on one little thing. it's not a bombshell, but closer to the inconsequential aspect. he won two states in a row. >> here's what roland martin is doing. >> i'm used to that soledad. >> roland, why are you shaking your head? >> because, if you want to win the nomination, it does not matter about a narrative. it doesn't matter how many states you won. it boils down to 1-4-4-5. this is great for us because, oh, he won these states. the bottom line on that night we were all going gaga over iowa and how many delegates were at stake on that particular night? that's the bottom line. if you're mitt romney you're not going to worry about whatever news conference today. you're focused on north carolina and moving on. >> the race does not move on until they decide the number of delegates. by the overall sense in a party where the race is going. money shuts off way before some, very few races like obama/clinton actually go all the way to the end. i do not think this would have had a big effect. social conservatives generally do not perform there and probably would have changed the trajectory of the race. gives political junkies to say, six consecutive political races will be decided the same way. different candidate winning new hampshire and one of the two winning south carolina. the streak may live on. >> let's turn, let's talk about south carolina. since we're here and all, since we came eating grits, which, by the way, you guys should have the grits, amazing here. >> serving those grits. >> that's a south carolina thing. >> we could put them on. so, here's my question. let's look at some of these polls. let's do this marist/nbc poll. the key thing on the 16th, the debate. if you look at the average here, you could see that we have romney at 37% on monday and then by tuesday, then after the debate, boom, down 31. gingrich 22%. after the debate, up to 26%. that's, that's a big slide. >> well, you know, you can usually tell what campaigns are thinking by what they do. the fact is the way that the romney campaign has been targeting gingrich they don't believe the race is as comfortable for them as both the cnn/"time" poll. >> if you look at the cnn/orc poll it shows that gingrich is at 33%. >> very similar to the overall of the marist. but the campaign is not behaving. having said that, the basic denamic really incapsulates the entire republican race in one snapshot. the basic story is that romney in south carolina is consolidating the center of the party more than anybody is consolidating the right of the party against them. if you look at evangelicals versus nonevan yegelicalnonevan. no one is getting nearly that much of the evangelical vote. same pattern with the tea party. it's divide and conquer. >> and with these, talk about bombshell and we'll talk about bombshells all morning. newt gingrich has a couple bombshells that might be exploding in front of him. >> just two? >> just two today and maybe the jimmy carter quote out of piers morgan interview where we were talking about yesterday. sort of the racial coding. jimmy carter was a little more blunt about it, that would be one and his ex-wife is now talking to abc news and they're going to release this morning part of that interview. roland, what kind of impact will that have on someone like newt gingrich. >> the last thing you want in the final 48 hours or let's say 72 hours of a campaign is to be talking about something that has nothing to do with the economy and has nothing to do with newt gingrich is a true conservative. >> the last thing you want ever in the history of oforever is your ex-wife doing an interview, ever. >> especially when she really wasn't that cool with you in the "esquire" article last year. >> that is a point, though. most of what she says will echo what has already been out there in the "esquire." coming out right on television right at the end is never helpful for a candidate. needs to mobilize social conservative voters the most skeptical of romney. having said that, i think we've reached the point where voters have shown over and over again they recognize that all of us are flawed and all of us have moments we don't want to read about on the front page of the papers. >> at some point you spend your energy and your day, even if you're swatting off things that people heard about before and even if it's only reporters that care and the general public doesn't care, that's how you spend your day. the daughters of newt gingrich sent a letter to abc news because they're sort of like the timing is really unfair and suspect. what do you think of the timing of this interview, you know, being released now, which is a day before, the morning of the debate, but two days before the actual -- >> look, 15 years ago "newsweek" sat on the story and didn't release it and put it up on the website that "newsweek" was having a story bill clinton had an affair with chelsea clinton -- >> her friend. her age. >> okay, let's clarify that for a moment. >> once again, matt drudge is reporting that abc is sitting on a story for some time and they want to release this event. i'm not saying what is right or wrong, but they are timing the story and we don't know when or why. >> they're going to have a clip of it this morning. >> here's the deal, okay. we can sit here and talk about, do you release it when you don't release it? the doesn't matter. this is a woman who listens to a candidate and talk about the sanctity of marriage in debates. you talk about characters in debates. the moment you go down that line, you are going to have to deal with these kind of questions. now, we can say, it doesn't matter to the voters, but when you look at these republican primaries and when you hear voters talk about this particular issue, it is going to come up and you have to deal with it and you must confront it. >> let's talk about jimmy carter's comments on piers morgan. we have been discussing this over the last couple days. this is what jimmy carter told piers morgan last night. >> i think he has that subtly of racism that i know quite well -- >> really? >> knows quite well that appeals to some people in georgia, particularly the right wing. >> you think he's doing it deliberately. >> he knows the words that you use and so forth that have been appealing in the past in those days of cherished segregation of the races. he's appealing for that in south carolina. i don't think it will pay off in the long run. >> so, is this a bombshell at all? >> i think this is a debate we were having yesterday. racial coating in what newt gingrich has said not only in the debates, but in some of the campaign stops. >> you know how i feel about this, soledad. if you say unemployment is higher in urban areas and then you say children in urban areas aren't acquiring work ethic. >> things that i say this president is the president who is the food stamp president, if you look at those numbers, it was george bush. >> more people on food stamps were white than black. i think when you make statements that don't have any relation to race some group of people hear -- maybe i'm not naive. >> yes, you are. you are naive. yes, you are. >> that was funny right there. >> i'd say you are naive. you are. >> look, i know you think that. >> i think in many ways the heart of the tea party movement, heart of the tea party movement is opposition to transfer payments. what newt gingrich is doing with food stamps is something that has never been done before. republicans talk about welfare. welfare was the symbol of government that took money from people who were working hard. that went away in inthe 1990s wn trent lott agreed on welfare reform. what gingrich is talking about food stamps raising that for welfare department in a way that has never been used before. same core argument. the core republican argument of our government it is taking money from hard-working people and giving it to those who don't deserve it. >> are y'all done? >> yes. >> i hope we are. the segment is over. >> let me help you with something. when newt gingrich says, i'm going to go to the naacp and i'm going to say, stop demanding checks and demand paychecks. he didn't say the national organization of women, he didn't say i'm going to a tea party rally. he specifically said the naacp. what does that mean? i'm talking to black people. >> when he talks about poor children and work as janitors, kids who are -- >> then he comes back to clean it up and the problem is, look, you knew exactly what you were saying the first time and so then when you say, what i really mean and then you see commentators say, here's what i think he meant. we heard what he said, we know what he meant and we know the game. >> we have hogan on the phone. he is santorum's national communication's director and we have an opportunity to ask him about some of these advances and developments this morning in, i can't even call it recount. it's not done. so, hogan, thanks for talking with us. we appreciate your time this morning. first, i'll ask you, what is your reaction when you hear that your candidate may win in iowa, after all. >> good morning, soledad. thanks for having me on. it's very exciting. i mean, two elections and the narrative for a long time has been mitt romney was 2-0. if these results are true and rick is ahead by 34 votes, then that's not the narrative any more. two states, two different victors and we're trying to say that we're the clear, consistent alternative to mitt romney and this just bears the fact that we were able to win iowa and, of course, i can understand how romney campaign is already out there trying to marginalize the victory. they outspent us by 20 times what we spent. but he did the same thing to mike huckabee. outspent him 20 times as much money. so, i can understand he didn't want that narrative out there. big win for our campaign and we're really excited about it. >> but is it really a big win when at the end of the day, some people say it just really doesn't matter. here you look at the storyline going into new hampshire. if you're going to talk about narratives, wow, santorum, big boost. it didn't help him that much. so, 34 votes or even victory there overall wouldn't have necessarily helped him. would it have made a difference, do you think? >> absolutely, soledad. look, when the thought was that mitt romney won by eight votes, it was a huge victory for mitt romney. but by that standard, i guess 34 votes is just about a landslide in iowa. the bottom line is, he is really going to make a boost to our campaign today and remind people that we've been able to tackle and take on mitt romney head on. we are the alternative to him and we plan on taking this into south carolina and beyond and showing people that we have the message and the messenger that can be the guy writing checks trying to buy state. >> hogan gidley joining us by phone. thanks for being with us. we appreciate your time this morning. lots to talk about. continuing to gather reaction to this breaking news out of iowa. we left iowa a long time ago and we're still talking about iowa. we'll talk about that this morning. then this cruiseship story that we have been following all week. new twists that the captain of this doomed cruise ship is telling as the timeline comes out. we'll tell you what he's saying. that's straight ahead, stay with us. plus, at&t hiking rates. get ready to pay even more. actor mark wahlberg backing from unfortunate comments he made about the 9/11 hijackers. that story straight ahead, as well. stay with us. [ male announcer ] the cadillac cts sport sedan was designed with near-perfect weight balance from front to back... and back to front. ♪ giving you exceptional control from left to right... and right to left. ♪ the cadillac cts. ♪ we don't just make luxury cars. we make cadillacs. one chance to hunt down the right insurance at the right price. the "name your price" tool, only from progressive. ready, aim, save! grrr! ooh, i forgot my phone! the "name your price" tool. now available on your phone. get a free quote today. good morning. welcome back, everybody. our other top story this morning is the rescue operations. more controlled explosions likely today. they're still trying to gain access to part of the ship. according to transcripts today attained by an italian newspaper, not yet independently verified by cnn, i should mention. the captain said he tripped and fell into a life boat after he handed off his own life jacket to a passenger. he also told the judge that he was navigating by sight. he said, i was navigating by sight because i knew the depths well and i knew the maneuvers. but this time i ordered the turn too late and i ended up in water too shallow. what happened onboard that oceanliner friday night. according to a full transcript from the port authority, at 10:06 p.m. police on land are made aware of problems. the passenger on the ship has called his mother on the land who in turn called police on the land and they reach back to the cruise ship. 10:14 they tell the coast guard. they answer back and say, don't worry, it's only a power outage. 10:26 p.m., the captain calls the coast guard and says there is an open hole in his ship. by 10:48 the coast guard is told there is an evacuation under evaluation. after police first made the ship aware of the problems, the evacuation process begins. i find this timeline absolutely stunni stunning. roland mrarten has popped out for a minute so he can talk to tom joiner. tom joiner's morning show. we have jim staples back, who has been a captain for 20 years, as well as a master mariner. he has bipartisan with us for the last couple days. i want to run through more stuff on this timeline. i find it stunning. first, the people who notified the police on land was the mo mother of a passenger who called her to tell her about the problems of hitting something. you can follow from this timeline that he admits he is in the water and the patrol boat at half past midnight informs him that there are 70 or 80 people stuck on that ship still, onboard. at 2:53 in the morning and he is found on the land. when you hear this updated transcript, sir, what is your take? >> it's amazing what took place on this ship with this captain. i find it amazing that a man in command would do something like that. >> we know there were calls between the captain and the cruiseline. he's basically calling his bosses. how unusual would that be after you've hit something but before you actually call for an evacuation? what could they possibly be talking about? >> i don't know what they were talking about. i am sure he was talking about possibility damage to the vessel. again, it shows their responsibility and incompetence. his first order of command was to find out what was going on with that ship and the problem if he needed to get the crew and passengers off immediately. that's what he should have been attending to sdmaut been distracted by calling the office and talking about probabilities. he should have gotten those people safely off the vessel. to call the office and maybe ask for advice. i don't know what he was doing or what he was thinking. >> will cain has said early on, i think all of us said before you know everything, you hesitate. especially since a lot of this is translated out of the italian. to me, it seems the incompetence has been -- >> we talked the last several days about abandoning ship. they're clarifying that with each other. what, you've abandoned ship? what does it mean to abandon ship? what does that declare? if he fell into the water, as he claims he did, what does it take to abandon ship? >> he claims he fell into a life boat, which is less believable. when you talk to the passengers who say they fought their way to life boats. >> qualifies as abandoning ship. >> jim? >> abandoning ship, why he would leave that vessel and i find this hard to believe. he should have never left the vessel and the probability of him falling out of the ship and tripping and conveniently landing in a life boat, what i would call a sea story. but, you know, for this guy to abandon that vessel like that, you don't want to leave your vessel and your crew to fend for yourselves. to make sure these people are all safe. again, this is, it is unfolding to just be bizarre. just a bizarre instance of a captain who really did not have command of his vessel. >> captain, it's ron brownstein. is the expectation in a situation like that, is the protocol that the captain would be the last person off a vessel? is that the expectation? >> absolutely. the captain should be the last person off the vessel. again, for the safety of your crew, your passengers to get them off first and then also to negotiate salvage rights with a salvage company. that would be the time you would be talking to the office. >> you know, one of the things he said, captain jim, he was -- i'm sorry, forgive me for interrupting you. he was navigating by sight so close to the beach and he said he has done it several times before. the way you'd navigate your sun fish as opposed to this massive cruise ship. how unusual would it be for someone to navigate by sight in a place that is so clearly close to the beach? >> well, there's nobody that i know that just navigates a boat by sight. you use radar sets and the other assets like your junior officers. they're helping navigate the ship. to do this totally on sight at nighttime would be equivalent to a pilot or airliner landing 747 not using navigation or tower control. it doesn't make any sense for this man to be doing something like this. it's absurd. you cannot trust your eye sight at nighttime. it's very hard to measure distance and your judgment of distance when you're moving. to do this at night, it's incredibly irresponsible. >> certainly sounds that way. i just want to ask one last question or put this on the table. malcolm gladwell wrote a book called "outliars" and he talks about cultural differences. we all have strength, weaknesses and tendencies in our cultures that contributed to plane crashes over the years. this guy was an italian, italian cruise ship and anything we're imposing upon this that maybe needs to be viewed through the italian culture? he was not you, captain jim, he was an italian captain. >> do italians dislike gps, for example? >> what i would say is we need to look at the team bridge concept they were using onboard. a lot of junior officers, they hesitate to maybe counterman the captain's orders. you have a junior officer who is there to also check what is being done is the correct thing. a junior officer should have stepped in and said, captain, you're treading into dangerous waters here, we need to move this vessel a bit further off shore. it sounds to me like the team bridge concept wasn't working at all there and it would be very interesting to find out if anybody was monitoring the equipment, the gpss and plotting the position as to where they were looking at the radar sets to see the distances and giving this information to the captain or if they just stood there and they were quiet because of the command structure on the vessel that the captain had the attitude that he was the supreme commander or god and that the junior officers didn't have a say. where we sail now in the american merchant marine and in most countries we use a team say and the junior officers have a say because everyone is capable of making a mistake at some time. >> everybody is capable of stopping that mistake from happening. captain jim, we're out of time. i know we'll see you back here tomorrow because we see you every day, tomorrow. we know we'll be back with you tomorrow. he's joining us from new orleans. we'll continue to watch the breaking news out of iowa. still talking about the iowa caucus. >> the broken news out of iowa. >> the fact that we're in south carolina. >> certification with santorum now on top. the gop saying it's a tie. actor mark wahlberg says he could have saved hijacked 9/11 planes if he was onboard. he is now apologizing for those remarks. we'll talk about that straight ahead. [ male announcer ] the inspiring story of how a shipping giant can befriend a forest may seem like the stuff of fairy tales. but if you take away the faces on the trees... take away the pixie dust. take away the singing animals, and the storybook narrator... [ man ] you're left with more electric trucks. more recycled shipping materials... and a growing number of lower emissions planes... which still makes for a pretty enchanted tale. ♪ la la la [ man ] whoops, forgot one... [ male announcer ] sustainable solutions. fedex. solutions that matter. ualcome back, everybody. this is inside the berry patch cafe. this restaurant is so cute. the owner tells me this has been here for 12 years. this is a beautiful restaurant. have you been seeing the palm trees. the palm trees on the table cloths. like hawaii, almost. >> no one is in a bad mood. >> christine romans has headlines. >> you eat your grits and i have a couple headlines for you. gop candidate rick santorum lower taxes for millions of americans. the tax policy center has now examined this plan and found 69% of taxpayers have had their taxes cut by nearly $7,800, but that means a big shortfall in government revenue making it harder to cut the deficit and slow the growth of the national debt. all right, president obama heads to disney world later today to talk tourism. the president wants to make it easier for people in places like brazil and china to maintain travel visas. tim curley and gary schultz are expected to be arraigned next hour for their roles involving child sex abuse scandal involving jerry sandusky. the two men who have pleaded not guilty are charged with perjury and failing to report an alleged 2002 sexual assault of a child. this just in to cnn, cnn confirms casey anthony will get $1 million for an interview. we'll have more on that and who the outlet is as soon as that becomes clearer. new weather worries for people in the pacific northwest after the biggest snow storm in decades. warmer temperatures could cause severe flooding and make road conditions dangerous. nearly seven inches of snow fell in seattle just what they usually get all year. at&t raising the prices of its data plans. cost between $20 a month and $50 a month depending on which data plan you go with. if you are an at&t customer, today, right now, don't worry, these new rates, these new plans only affect new customers. all right, minding your business. u.s. stock futures trading higher. bank of america just announced fourth quarter income of $2 billion says solid business activity reflects "gradually improving economy." in about an hour, labor department will announce how many unemployment claims were filed for the first time last week. everyone is hoping this number comes in below 400 because anything below 400,000 shows the labor department is headed in the right direction. soledad? >> thanks, christine. our focus for a little bit this morning has been iowa. i didn't say thank you enough to christine and now she's saying you're welcome. our focus has been on iowa but because of the breaking news out of iowa that we all know and we have a focus in south carolina, which is where we are this morning. here today newt gingrich is answering questions about his ex-wife who has now done an interview and a piece of it i think has already aired on "good morning america" and newt gingrich was on quae"today" sho swatting back some of those questions. let's listen to what he said on "today" show as soon as we get it. he is answering questions. here's what he said. listen. >> my two daughters, cathy and jackie, has sent a letter to the president of abc news saying from a family perspective they think this is totally wrong. they think abc should not air anything like this and intruding into family things that are a decade, more than a decade old are simply wrong. now, i'll have my daughter speak for it and i'm sure they'll be glad to come on and chat with you about it. i won't comment beyond that. >> intruding into family things is totally wrong. we have to introduce chad connally who has joined us. chairman of the republican south carolina party. feel free to dig into any of the food we have on the table. good morning. >> good morning. >> newt gingrich today should be talking about his economic policies in south carolina is, instead, talking about his ex-wife's interview. that's always a problem for him. >> interesting how they come out before a crucial election. he has done well here building a grassroots team and i think he will show well on saturday, too. >> do you think this will have any impact? >> i don't know, interesting to see. he came here building a grass roots team. he has been here longer than anyone but senator santorum. i'm interested to see how that translates into votes on saturday. >> if at any time you hear somebody say let's not intrude on family things, they're likely in trouble. trust me, i guarantee you out there -- >> before the full interview comes out, by the way. when you're doing damage control before the interview -- >> i guarantee you out there women are saying, now you don't want to intrude on family things. gays and lesbians saying, wow, now you're saying don't intrude on family things. this is what happens when your butt is now on the line and you're saying, stay out of my stuff. this is when you talk about character. when you stand on stage and you talk about your wife and talk about your grandkids and your friends and family, you have to deal with this stuff. >> i predict this will have less impact than this suggests. >> really? >> i think the evidence is overwhelming that voters understand that everybody has something in their life they don't want to read about on the front page of "new york times" or washington post" or cnn. >> and "detroit news" and other papers outside of d.c. and new york. >> i think voters have shown they don't judge political leaders by their worst moments and that is actually a healthy impulse in society -- >> and i would add that -- >> people who see this as a hypocrisy opposed to republican candidate anyway. it's kind of like, i think it kind of works that way. >> this is an interview that could end his campaign with one statement. so, you might be wrong ron brownstein. >> i don't know. i don't think so. >> for social conservatives for evangelicals he said, i went through a difficult time, i repented and he's been very clear. he's been here a lot of times going around the state talking about stuff like this. i have things in my life that i'm not proud of. >> let's talk about poll numbers. you see mitt romney with a fairly decent slide if you believe the nbc/marist poll. six points down by tuesday, of course, what happened in between was the debate. what do you think is going on in this debate with mitt romney? >> most interesting to see how they'll translate the votes and i know that speaker gingrich and senator santorum have been here a lot and governor romney has been here a lot lately. south carolina has, you know, we have a reputation for this. we picked the nominee for 30 years and i tell you, people are just now tuning in. i was with all my families over christmas and we have four different families and grandparents and parents and no one has seen a full debate at that time. with that debate last monday night and then tonight people are tuning in and they're focusing and they haven't been decided and they have to make a decision this week. >> also keep in mind, this is the first full primary we have seen the gingrich super pac. he did have the money in new hampshire and that plays a role in it, as well. the conservative fire wall to mitt romney and i think it's playing out. >> can i say, in the next couple days as soon as south carolina is over, we will know what matters. we know that most people suggest that newt gingrich won the debate the other night. we know we talked about in the next day newt gingrich will have a scandal come out, will that matter. a lot of talk about whether or not the fact that mitt romney is a mormon. >> can i -- >> this is my magic wall right here. >> wow. >> we're going to -- >> we don't have as much money as most shows. >> eat your heart out, john king. >> there is one dynamic not on your wall. one last thing that's not on the wall. >> one person at a time, please. >> we know that mitt romney, like john mccain before him, has a ceiling in south carolina. this is not the ideal electorate for him. 60% evangelical. he will not get to 40% as that poll had him on monday night. the real question, the overwhelming question which is the same one has been for months. can anyone mobilize the big portion of the electorate and skeptical of him. look what's happening today. if rick santorum gains more momentum, that's probably good for mitt romney because it further fractionates the vote on the right. >> what would the impact be? now that you know that breaking news, if you can call it that out of iowa, 34 votes instead of down eight. what is the impact here in south carolina? >> i don't know. it's tough to see. it was the whole national narrative was, romney's momentum. there's no question. governor romney came in with steam and i told you the grassroots were behind a lot of the people. with all five campaigns, i can name close friends who helped me in my chairman's campaign last spring. tea party, republican activists. >> we wouldn't have a chance. >> it's spread out. a typical primary and i'm not sure you can put in a box and say this is what it is. it's a primary. >> his whole deal with romney. you're playing long ball -- >> are you doing sports analogies? >> you're saying we spend lots of time saying this state, this state, this state. if you're romney, all you're simply focused on, i'm playing long ball and trying to play it out. i want to get to that end number. that's the whole goal. the end number. >> it's going perfectly for romney. >> absolutely. >> one thing, typical race. it's actually typical of the new race. up until 2008, the winner in south carolina was at 45% or above. john mccain won with a third of the vote and romney may have the opportunity to have the same thing. the debates and super pacs are allowing to people to stay in the race longer. and that's why it's possible for romney to potentially end this race. >> they're making a big influence in iowa and here it has begun to play. >> chairman connelly, thank you for joining the craziness this morning. still ahead this morning, the president has rejected the keystone oil pipeline. republicans are furious say the president is killing jobs. the project, though, might not be dead. we'll talk about that. actor mark wahlberg said he could have stopped the 9/11 hijackers if he was aboard one of those planes. now he is apologizing. more on that story, stay with us. i'm phil mickelson, pro golfer. if you have painful, swollen joints, i've been in your shoes. one day i'm on top of the world... the next i'm saying... i have this thing called psoriatic arthritis. i had some intense pain. it progressively got worse. my rheumatologist told me about enbrel. i'm surprised how quickly my symptoms have been managed. [ male announcer ] because enbrel suppresses your immune system, it may lower your ability to fight infections. serious, sometimes fatal events including infections, tuberculis, lymphoma, other cancers, and nervous system and blood disorders have occurred. before starting enbrel, your doctor should test you for tuberculosis and discuss whether you've been to a region where certain fungal infections are common. don't start enbrel if you have an infection like the flu. tell your doctor if you're prone to infections, have cuts or sores, have had hepatitis b, have been treated for heart failure, or if, while on enbrel, you experience persistent fever, bruising, bleeding, or paleness. get back to the things that matter most. ask your rheumatologist if enbrel is right for you. [ male announcer ] enbrel. the #1 biologic medicine prescribed by rheumatologists. weltcome back to the berry patch. we're having breakfast this morning in charleston, south carolina. our get real this morning involves the actor mark wahlberg. he made the mistake, he made the mistake of breaking, what i consider to be a golden rule. when someone asks you a what if question, do not answer that question ever. it cannot end well. here is a guy that plays these macho characters and he is promoting his new movie "contraband." what if he had been on boston's flight 911 when the 9/11 terrorists hijacked it. he said, "if i was on that plane with my kids, it wouldn't have gone down the way it did. there would have been a lot of blood in that first class cab and then me saying, we're going to land safely somewhere, don't worry." he was booked on that flight in 2001 and he changed his plans and family members are reacting to what he said. one widow whose husband said wahlberg's remarks were disrespectful. they were able to crash that plane in shanksville, pennsylvania. this he has issued a formal apology saying this. "to speculate about such a situation is ridiculous and to suggest i would have done anything differently than the passengers on that plane was irresponsible." give a real shoutout to mark wahlberg for backing away and getting real -- >> at least his publicist. >> no. >> actually answer -- >> the apology. >> oh, gotcha. >> very well crafted. >> i want to believe that he read that and said, do not ever answer what if questions. that was disrespectful and he has issued an apology. he has gotten real this morning. >> way to go, tough guy. next on "starting point." president obama says not now to the pipeline that would cut through the united states. republicans say it's killing jobs. we'll hear on both sides of this issue as we continue. wow. wow. but you can help fight muscle loss with exercise and ensure muscle health. i've got revigor. what's revigor? it's the amino acid metabolite, hmb to help rebuild muscle and strength naturally lost over time. [ female announcer ] ensure muscle health has revigor and protein to help protect, preserve, and promote muscle health. keeps you from getting soft. [ major nutrition ] ensure. nutrition in charge! i'm going to own my own restaurant. i want to be a volunteer firefighter. when i grow up, i want to write a novel. i want to go on a road trip. when i grow up, i'm going to go there. i want to fix up old houses. [ female announcer ] at aarp we believe you're never done growing. i want to fall in love again. [ female announcer ] discover what's next in your life. get this free travel bag when you join at aarp.org/jointoday. welcome back, everybody. president obama is postponing plans for the keystone oil pipeline. 's blaming republicans and says congress gave too short of a deadline for review of the plans. cnn's christine romans is showing us what the pipeline is all about now. good morning. >> good morning. it would be the biggest infrastructure project underway in the united states, some $7 billion worth. this is what it looks like. building this pipeline here. it's actually connecting some existing infrastructure, connecting the oil sand fields of alberta, canada. the refineries on the gulf coast. it's unconventional. sticky, heavy-like oil stuff mixed with sand, clay, minerals. takes more energy to turn it to fuel. requires extensive refinery. the part of this giant pipeline everybody is fighting about is this, these two extensions that are 16,061 miles of pipeline. environmentalists are worried about the fragile sand hills of nebraska right here. then there's this connection. this connection right here that goes down to houston. critics say that transcanada could actually maybe export oil to refining to other countries like china, brazil, cut the u.s. out. there's also concern, quite frankly, that this is all just going to lock us into this fossil fuels. it's a deeper commitment to oil sands refining, a difficult job that creates more pollution, other types of oil production. environmentalist, they worry that that pipe could leak whampt do supporters say? it's about jobs. the builder says it would create maybe 20,000 jobs. it would add $20 billion for the u.s. economy over 100 years. it's worth noting, soledad, the state department says it would only create 5 or 6,000 jobs. others have said they would be temporary jobs, maybe a couple of thousand. plus canadian oil though, it's a stable trading partner, right? it helps avoid the conflict oil of the middle east. our colleagues at cnn money put it and said it's a debate about national security, the joobs, presidential politics too, the economy. >> i think politics plays a very big role. we'll get to that in a minute, christine. thank you. let's get into that debate. arthur burman joins us. geological consultant. on the opposite side is jane klee. she fought against the pipeline. nice to have you both. thanks for being with us. mr. burma, i'm going to start with you. you said this is a perfectly awful decision by the president. why? >> let's talk about the environmental part of this first. the assumption a lot of people make is that the aquifer, the beds that carry the water is at the surface. it's an underground cavern and if there is a spill it's going to go into the water supply, that's wrong. it's not a cavern, its a he a rock. it's buried several hundred feet below the surface. the likelihood of any spill getting to it is unlikely. >> that's not true, mr. berman. >> hold on. hold on. stop for one second. i want to stop you. the president has said he's rejecting the bid but he says let's study it more. what's wrong with the take of let's study it a little bit more, sir? >> it's already been studied. the state department's looked into it. there have been independent analyses. i'm not here to say that having a pipeline doesn't present certain risks of oil spillage, all i'm saying is that the concerns about it getting into the drinking water in the aquifer i think are overblown and based on a fundamental lack of understanding of geology. >> all right. ms. cleve, why don't you hop in and tell me what your concerns are. are they overblown and based on a fundamental lack of understanding of geology? >> i don't think mr. berman is going to be drinking the water in nebraska, but i am and my kids are. he's not true that the water is not at the surface. in the sand hills if you stick a pipe in the ground, water will come out. that's often how they feed cattle up there. so, you know, i don't really appreciate his arrogance saying that we don't understand what we're talking about in nebraska. we have a lot of concerns about the water, but we also have concerns about the risks of this pipeline to our energy security. this is an export pipeline. quite frankly, i don't think us in middle america want to be used as a middleman for canada to make millions of dollars. >> when you look at what the president said, ms. kleeb, he didn't say this could be an environmental catastrophe, this is why i'm going to not allow it to happen. what he said, the deadline, the calendar, that means that it sounds like politically speaking it's still on the table. some people said that this is going to happen. we know that the company that wants to put the pipeline in in fact will go back and reh-apply for it. do you worry about the president's support? >> no, i don't worry. i think the president is committed to american-made energy. this pipeline is not american-made energy. this does nothing to get us off oil and move us to a new energy economy which is exactly what we need to do. ne brass cans are not done fighting this pipeline. if transcanada decides they are going to resubmit for a permit for the pipeline, we will be there fighting every step of the way. this is about protecting our land and our water and this is about protecting our family's heritage which is why you saw us on both the republican and democratic side standing shoulder to shoulder to fight this thing. it's not good for our country, it's not good for our state, it's not good for our family farmers and ranchers. >> mr. berman, the oil will eventually go out of canada. they're going sell it. what's the expectation that happens with this oil? >> the great expectation is that they'll export it to china. people who are worried about the environment, putting this oil on tankers has a much higher probability of spills and other environmental issues. this oil is coming from canada. i hope that the canadians make money as we like to in trade. it's also going to go to u.s. refineries where americans will make money. some of it'll be exported. exports are good. we have a bad balance of trade. so i think in the long run the concern is it's great to say we're going to get off of an oil economy. the reality is that we're not going to get off of an oil economy any time in the next few decades. we're going to need this oil. at the moment at the rate that china and india are increasing their oil demand, they're going to use 100% of existing net exports over the next 20 years. there simply won't be any left for the rest of the world. so i think there is a security issue here. i'd rather get my oil from a neighbor and a friend in canada than have to worry about the security of supply from somewhere in the middle east or elsewhere in the world. plus we're giving it to competitors. >> mr. berman, i thank you for your time. 's he a geological consultant and jane kleeb. ahead this morning in our next hour, watching breaking news out of iowa. a recant -- a recant. it is a little bit. >> you or sarah palin. >> rick santorum in the recount. thank you my annoying panelists for jumping on my mistake. now show rick santorum in the lead. we'll talk about what the implications of that could be. also, we'll talk about the new book, it's called "the real romney." two veteran two political reporters who wrote it. you're watching "starting point." short break. [ jennifer garner ] there's a lot of beautiful makeup out there. but one is so clever that your skin looks better even after you take it off. neutrogena® healthy skin liquid makeup. 98% saw improved skin. does your makeup do that? neutrogena® cosmetics. -three. -one. two. three. one. -two. -three. -one. -two. -three. [ male announcer ] with the bankamericard cash rewards credit card, earn 1% cash back everywhere, every time. 2% back on groceries. and 3% back on gas. automatically. no hoops to jump through. -it's as easy as...1. -two. -three. [ male announcer ] 1, 2, 3 percent cash back for the things you buy most. the bankamericard cash rewards card. apply online or at a bank of america near you. --ecaptions by vitac -- cas www.vitac.com good morning. welcome, everybody. we're digging into the harbor saute. i've never seen this. i've done a review for many years. i've never seen him dig into a dish like a crazy man. we're at the bear eat cafe in charleston, south carolina. the owner tells us that this is one of the specialties of the house. it's crab, shrimp, and what else? >> peppers. >> fantastic. breaking news this morning is out of iowa. interestingly enough, even though we're in south carolina. the question is did iowa actually go for santorum after all? there's a new recount, but it's not quite so simple. we have a news conference coming at 9:15 a.m. from the iowa republican party. we'll update you. also newt gingrich's second wife is talking, and talking, and talking apparently. abc this evening will be airing what his former wife has to say. it must be pretty bad because already the former speaker has been doing spin control all morning. we'll tell you what he said on the "today show" this morning. plus the real romney. and we'll update you on the leaked transcripts. the captain admitting he made a mistake. those stories and much more ahead as "starting point" begins right now. >> this is cnn breaking news. welcome back, everybody. we're updating you on what's happening. those new numbers coming to us from the iowa caucuses. want to get to jennifer johnson about this iowa recount update. the numbers show that rick santorum finished ahead by 34 votes. you'll remember, those are the counts right there, 29,839 for santorum. mitt romney at 29,805. eight precincts though will never be certified. the gop is calling it a tie and it doesn't change the delegate count. mitt romney earlier today released a statement saying this, the results from the iowa caucus night revealed a virtual tie. i'd like to thank you them for their careful attention to the caucus. we recognize rick santorum for his strong performance. the iowa caucuses were a great start to defeating president obama in iowa and elsewhere in the general election. jennifer johnson is a reporter with the des moines register and she broke that story. we'll bring her in now. jennifer, so tell us how it started. how did you begin to realize that what we thought was a minor victory for mitt romney actually looks like it went santorum's way? >> reporter: good morning. i knew it first when the party officials told me that they couldn't declare an outright winner because so many precincts couldn't be certified. those precincts have just proven that there have been some errors and those errors have been very, very small, but this margin of this gap that rick santorum had was so tiny that's impossible to say who exactly won. >> so talk to me about some of those errors. we have eight precincts that they will never be able to certify because of those errors. what exactly happened? >> right. they don't recount any of the ballots. that's taken care of on caucus night. what the officials do, it's by volunteers, they have a forum that night and it's supposed to be signed by two precinct officials. they were supposed to turn them in by yesterday at 5:00. well, eight of those precincts, the documentation never came in. the gop officials were just saying we will never know the true results of this because so many of those were missing. that was one big problem. the other errors were type owes. there was about 131 precincts, to be precise, that did have some sort of a change in their results from caucus night to the certified total. >> jennifer, i was told not only are there positions about recording, but each precinct might have a different process for tabulating the ballots, whether they even have ballots. how people turn in their vote. the level of informality in this process, is it out of sync with how important the result has become? does this naed to be professionalized given how much it affects the entire race and actually who could be the president of the united states, commander in chief and leader of the free world? >> it is a very loose process. it's about as precise as picking a class president except on a slightly bigger scale. it's a bunch of volunteers, iowa citizens. they write down their choice on a little slip of a piece of paper and pass it to the front of the room or someone goes around and collects the ballots. it is very informal. it's always been that way. it's just a caucus. it's not a primary, not a government-run election. it's a very informal snapshot of where iowans are at. >> is this the first time that you've seen -- is what's remarkable about this is that it's so close that when you have this variability it really could matter versus every year there are some precincts that you cannot certify or every four years because, frankly, there are always mistakes? having been part of that process you've seen little slips of paper, trying to count them. i could see where there would be errors. >> yeah, definitely. most precincts, every four years we have precincts where the precinct leaders don't turn in their results on caucus night. they go to sleep and they'll wait to turn them in until the next day. every four years we have many, many precincts that never actually turn in their results. you're exactly right. it's never mattered before because there was always a clear winner. the gap was always large enough that party officials were very comfortable in calling a winner even though they didn't have the 100% complete results. this year the results are incomplete and they're saying there's too much wiggle room here. we cannot declare a winner. you can look at that is there's no winner here or two winners here. all depends on the way you want to look at it. >> that sounds like an elementary school classroom. everybody won. >> this is row land martin here. are state officials in iowa looking to make changes? obviously they look horrible as a result of this and i understand your point about this being an informal process, some folks may go home for the night, but the party, though, still plays a role in the caucus there in iowa. are they looking at making any changes to their own process? >> they have updated their security this year. i know they've made a lot of improvements this year. according to everyone who's watched this process, this has been the best run iowa caucus ever in the history of iowa caucuses. it's been the most precise. i haven't heard them talking about anything specifically as far as changing. in fact, they were very liberal with their rules this time. there were some of these official documents turned in by the precinct that had some irregularities. some weren't signed by the true precinct leaders. some had no signatures at all. some didn't come in on the official documentation, some came in on a piece of scrap paper, notebook paper. the gop chairman wanted to err on the side of inclusion, he didn't want rules or instructions to prevent any votes from being discounted so he accepted all of those irregular documentation, note papers, into the big pool of the final certified total. he just really wanted to include everybody. >> and we know that at 9:15 we're going to be hearing from the iowa republicans who will be telling us exactly, maybe, how they're going to be making changes. we're going to move on to another topic. we'd love to have you stick with us. we're talking about newt gingrich who was on the "today show" earlier this morning defending what hasn't come out yet. >> promiscuouprebuttle. >> i like that. to what his ex-wife apparently will say to an interview that will air on abc news this evening. here's what he said on the "today show." listen. >> my two daughters, kathy and jackie, have sent a ler to the president of abc news saying from a family perspective they think this is totally wrong. they think abc should not air anything like this and that intruding into family things that are a decade, more than a decade old are simply wrong. now i'll have my daughters speak for it. i'm sure they'd be glad to come on and chat with you on it. i'm not going to comment beyond that. >> he's done commenting on it but he may not be done. i think it's what people are going to be talking about. i should reintroduce you guys. >> here we are. >> that would be roland martin at the end. will cane is with us and ron brownstein. the wheels are coming off already only ten minutes into our second hour. >> we have a difference of opinion on this newt gingrich story. will it matter or won't it? >> we don't know what it says. how can you weigh in on that? >> listen. i've been called naive in the last past hour. >> yes. >> that being said, i won't be surprised if this scandal has something to do with the word s-e-x or infidelity. >> you can spell it. >> i want to continue with the naive persona. if it does, let me assure you this matters to people. that kind of thing resonates if that's what we're talking about. >> ron brownstein disagrees. >> the truest words. >> are you going to spell sex for us too? >> the truest words ever written about american life was in when he said man is conceived in corruption, there is always something. that is what i believe we have seen over the past two decades, the american people intrinsically know everybody has done something they don't want to talk about on television. i think we see over and over that they are willing to judge politicians by more than their worst moments. this will be another case. look, this has been out there. it's obviously a very painful moment. there was one answer he gave in a debate, newt gingrich, talking about his leadership in the 1990s. a lot of criticism of his leadership of the house. i am a different guy. i am 68 years old. i'm a grandfather. judge me by who i am today. my instinct is, maybe i'm wrong, most people will take him at that word. >> let's take a look at what his ex-wife marry ansaid in a 2010 esquire interview. that's the only real information we have at this point since the interview is not out. he believes what he says in public and how he lives don't have to be connected. she goes on to say as she's quoting newt gingrich. it doesn't matter what i do. people need to hear what i have to say. there's no one else who can say what i can say. it doesn't matter what i live. >> here's what i've always found to be interesting to ron's point. i remember, i watched jack welch on piers morgan. he said, look, people, they grow and they move on, things along those lines. when i read jack welch's book on leadership he talked about wanting people in g.e. who have character, integrity, who he can trust. i found it interesting hearing that from someone who cheated on the first wife, married the second wife, cheated on the second wife, married a third wife. what does it mean when we value integrity in the workplace. it doesn't matter at home. especially for female voters, we can say, hey, people say folks make mistakes, but it still says something about a person. talk about leadership. a person are you a leader in home and can we trust you to make the kinds of decisions? i think it still matters to a number of people. >> george bush in 2000 if he could have run for a third term and would he not have carried a very substantial number of female voters, especially college educated. >> hypothetical questions. >> the answer is clearly yes. >> if we have the kind of meeting we have today. >> believe it or not, there are other stories that are making news this morning and we're going to get a look at some of those stories. we have christine loam mans for us. we don't have christine romans for us. we have two authors of the book about mitt romney. we should bring them in. what's that? the real mitt romney. michael kranish and scott helman. it's a fascinating book. they have taken a close look at mitt romney from the very beginning. gentleman, i welcome you to the show. appreciate your time being with us. first and foremost, what was your big take away? who is the real mitt romney? >> i think it's a hard question to answer in two seconds. it took us 360 odd pages to do that, i think. as you know, he's rooted in family. deeply rooted in his mormon faith. he is very much committed to following his father's example, george romney's example. he's somebody politically who has been hard to pin down as you know. he's run several races over the last two decades and had sort of a different political persona in each. somebody who we've seen having trouble connecting on the campaign train but is privately apparently very warm, very human, very funny. so he's a complicated figure. i think we all can talk about strengths and weaknesses. we have a fascinating account, we think, of a man who is -- despite the news this morning, i think he's still poised to be the republican nominee. >> let me ask you a question about motivation. i'm sorry. let me hop in. >> sure. >> i'm always curious when people are running for the highest office in the land, why? what's your motivation? why do you want to be president and how long has it been that you've wanted to be president? is he the guy from childhood who said, this is my dream, this is my goal? >> in this case i think you can say mitt romney has wanted to run for president for a long time, perhaps since the time that his father, george romney, ran for the presidency in 1968 and lost. in the book throughout we very much emphasize the relationship between george romney and mitt romney. a lot of americans remember when george romney said he'd been brainwashed by the generals in vietnam. that one sentence pretty much exploded his presidential ambitions. mitt romney has taken a lesson from that. in the book we quote his sister saying as a result mitt is more careful, more scripted in what he says because one sentence could end your campaign as it did his fathers. that gives you insight into how mitt romney runs his campaign, why he does seem to some people distant. it's one of the great challenges that he has. while scott mentioned, he's obviously in a circle of friends and advisors he trusts, very warm. for the general public it could be a harder connection to make especially given his great wealth, career, and trying to make that connection to the average person. >> he has claimed that he's created more than 100,000 jobs. we've heard this over and over again. now he's sort of dealing with on two fronts some issues. number one the taxes issue and number two bain which is a conversation that will keep coming up. have you been able to prove that number was it 100,000 plus jobs that mitt romney was responsible for creating? >> in fact, we sort of say the opposite. you cannot definitively say how many jobs he created. very specifically on the 100,000 job figure, going back to 1994 the boston globe asked him about his claim that he created 10,000 jobs or more and he said regarding staples, for example, he was always careful to say i, quote, helped create those jobs. i don't take credit for the jobs at staples. in the current campaign it's said he's created over 100,000 jobs, 89,000 from staples. most of them are long after he cashed out. so there's a bit of a diskeblgt between what he said back in 1994 in the boston globe and what he says now and exactly how many jobs he can take credit for when bain invested in staples it was one of the smallest deals. of the 100 deals he did, this was one of the smallest. put in $2.5 million, got back $13 billion. there's others he made a billion dollars for bain. it's small in the context. >> fellows, will cain here. here is the million dollar question for many conservatives who will be voting in south carolina in a couple of days and across the country. is mitt romney an unprincipled human being? is he fundamentally a man without a core? >> i think that's certainly a criticism we have seen time and time again. i think that's probably taking it too far, but at the same time clearly a lot of voters believe that. that's why he's had trouble, i think, getting above this, what have we been calling him the 25% man, though i guess that's changing. i do think at the same time if you look back at his first campaign in 1994, run for governor in 2002, last presidential campaign,'s he been very different, not just on abortion and life issues, but other things. in the 1994 debate with ted kennedy he famously said he did not want to return to reagan/bush. now he is running very much in the reagan mold. so i think this is going to continue to be one of his great challenges assuming he's the nominee is showing people that you can trust me, that i know what i believe, that i stand for things and that i'm going to articulate them in a way that resonates with you. >> when he ran for senate he said newt gingrich's idea was wrong and he opposed it. you have the two factors running here. >> you talk about him being warm. do you believe he will have the john kerry al gore problem, not connecting with the voters will eventually doom his candidacy? >> i think that's a real risk. one of the things we were struck by in the book is this sort of tremendous gap between how he's perceived by people close to him and how he's perceived publically. it sort of drives people in his family and in his circle crazy when they hear him described as cold, detached, wooden. they don't see that mitt romney at all. unfortunately, a lot of people do. i do think he has to find a way to really open up. of course, one problem with that or one hurdle for him, roland, is his mormon faith which is so much part of who he is and who he has been and who his family has been. he's been uncomfortable talking about it for reasons we all know. he has to open up and explain to people that's where he comes from. again, he needs to find a way to do it that doesn't turn off voters. >> scott helman, michael kranich. thank you. the book is called "the real romney." appreciate it. still to come on "starting point," newt gingrich is rising in the polls. how will he be preparing for tonight's debate? we'll take a closer look. who will be influential in saturday's primary. a new twist in the cruise ship story. tell you what he's reportedly saying about that night. stay with us. i'm always looking out for small ways to be more healthy. like splenda® essentials™ no calorie sweeteners. this bowl of strawberries is loaded with vitamin c. and now, b vitamins to boot. coffee doesn't have fiber. unless you want it to. splenda® essentials™ are the first and only line of sweeteners with a small boost of fiber, or antioxidants, or b vitamins in every packet. mmm. same great taste with an added "way to go, me" feeling. splenda® essentials™. get more out of what you put in. life with crohn's disease is a daily game of "what ifs." what if my stomach pain and cramps end our night before it even starts? what if i eat the wrong thing? what if... what if i can't make it through dinner and a movie? what if i suddenly have to go? what if... but what if the most important question is the one you're not asking? what if the underlying cause of your crohn's symptoms is damaging inflammation? for help getting the answers you need visit knowcrohns.com/tv and use the interactive discussion guide to speak with your gastroenterologist. welcome back, everybody. we're coming to the from the bear e patch cafe. yeah. we're in charleston, south carolina, today. i'd hit you if you were closer to me. the owner who's owned this cafe for 12 years is john haas. the specialties we're digging into, it's grits and seafood and everything delicious. we appreciate them. >> do that tomorrow, right? >> you'll be here tomorrow. you can have the whole thing tomorrow let's move on, shall we. we're going to talk about this cruise liner tragedy. the captain now is claiming that he had intended to stay with the ship. this is according to leaked interrogation transcripts, leaked by an italian newspaper so cnn is not independently confirming those words at this point. the captain claims though, and i have to say this borders on the absolutely insanely ridiculous, that somehow he slipped and fell into a life boat and that's why he was off the ship. he wasn't trying to abandon the ship. he also mentions that he gave away his life jacket to a passenger. it's insane. anyway, there is some evidence though about what exactly did happen on board that ocean liner on friday night because there's a transcript of these calls back and forth from the ship to the port authority. as can you see from some of this time line, at 10:06 police on land called the ship to make the ship aware of the problems. what had happened was a woman on land had got a phone call from the ship from her son and so it was police on land who reach out to the ship at 10:06. then the concordia officers tell the coast guard, it's only a power outage, it's no big deal. by 10:26 p.m. the captain calls the coast guard and says there's an open hole in the ship. and they also at 10:48 say there's an evacuation under evaluation. at 10: 58, nearly one hour after police were first making the ship aware of the problems, the evacuation process finally begins. let's get right to our guest on this. we have a maritime attorney. mr. hickey, thanks for being with us. we appreciated your help yesterday. i have more questions for you today. let's start with the captain. there's so much to talk about. from the get-go i think the word incompetent is one everybody's been using, but now it looks like there's an hour, the hour before they called for the evacuation, he's actually on the phone with the cruise line company. from a legal perspective, how does this affect how this case could go? >> well, you know, from a legal perspective, there's many points of negligence here. there's like so many things he did wrong from the navigational standpoint, number one, to the delays in calling for may day, to the -- you know, as is coming out now, he's calling the company and having a conversation with the company apparently before damage assessment. the very first thing that a captain on board a ship should do is take leadership and do damage assessment to see what are the facts and, you know, this captain, he was all about relying on other people for what the facts were. relying on and it's incredible, this new time line that you pointed out, that people on shore are now calling the ship to find out and tell them what's going on or that there is a problem before the captain really has done his damage assessment. this is going to go into -- yeah, this is going to affect all the legal proceedings, but it's pretty clear that the cruise line is going to be responsible because they are responsible for the negligent actions of the captain. >> what degree? when you look at, and i think there is an article that i read where you were quoted that talked about the costa contract. i remember you sign contracts about the cruise. this contract says the line will pay no more in cases of death, personal injury, and property loss than $71,000 per passenger. it allows for no recovery of mental anguish, no recovery for psychological damages and it bars class action suits. that sounds very clear. does negligence change what looks like an ironclad contract that says, listen, people, we don't care what happens, you cannot get anything out of the company? >> yeah. that is the cruise/passenger contract which is, you know, we printed one out. it's eight pages of very fine small print, and it's all legal gobble degook. you put your finger on what's called the athens convention which if the cruise does not touch a u.s. port it would apply and impose that limitation on damages which is absolutely horrendous. but the athens convention has an exception. one of the exceptions is intentional conduct and what we have here is intentional conduct by the captain. he intentionally, you know, navigated that ship way too close to shore. he intentionally abandoned ship before he should have. all of these are intentional acts. i know that -- i don't know if you're referring to the "new york times," but "the new york times" was making a point that, well, what if the cruise line says, well, you know, too bad, so sad, it's the intentional act of a captain but we did not authorize him to do any of these things. well, you know, the fact is, and i went online yesterday looking at that after that question was raised, because it's almost absurd to think, oh, well we want to distance ourselves from the captain. on the costa cruise -- >> which they've been doing very aggressively. >> right. which they have been doing very aggressively, you know, for obvious reasons, i guess. if you go on their website though, under a certain section you can see the hierarchy on board the ship or in the company, and i have it here and i printed this out. you can see the chairman and ceo at the top, and under that is the president and right under that is the captain of the ship. so the captain of the ship is right under the president of the company in terms of the hierarchy with regard to the ship. the captain is the master of everything that takes place in regard to that ship. and he should be responsible. you know, this is -- getting back to the negligence. people do have rights and remedies under the ticket contract, it's just that because this is a foreign-based cruise line and because this particular cruise did not touch a u.s. port, there are those limitations and getting back, you know, the athens convention initially does apply. i say the exception comes into play here. >> i have a feeling this is a conversation that you and i will be having on television for a long time over the next couple of months as this is definitely going to be a case, many cases probably that go to court. thanks for being with us. we appreciate your time again this morning. want to turn now to the big debate that's happening tonight. it is the final one before this crucial south carolina primary. we've shown you some new numbers from iowa with santorum certified results, 29,839 and mitt romney at 29,805 votes. that would put santorum 34 votes ahead in the caucuses. results from eight precincts will never be certified. you really can't know for certain who was the victor. mitt romney today is calling it a virtual tie. south carolina polls show that newt gingrich is closing in on mitt romney. brett o'donnell is the former chief strategist for michele bachmann's campaign. he joins us to talk about the debate tonight, planning, strategy. we have our panel with us. break it down for me. let's look at what i think people would say are two people to watch this evening would be mitt romney, newt gingrich. newt gingrich has a lot of drama happening in his life right now. we don't know exactly what this interview is going to be. how are you prepping him if he's your client? >> for newt, you know, i think that last debate you saw that really newt had a very, very good debate, but newt border lines on condescending sometimes. in fact, in the last debate in sioux city, iowa, i thought he was somewhat con did he accepteding to my candidate, michele bachmann. if i'm prepping newt, i'm going to talk to him especially tonight with the interview coming out about humility, making sure that while he's firm and makes his arguments strongly, that he doesn't come off as condescending, that he doesn't come off as lecture. the rap against him has been that he is somewhat professorial. that he tends to be a lecturer. that's not the newt gingrich that needs to show up in the debate tonight. what needs to show up tonight is the same newt that showed up on monday night. he was very intelligent, on his game in terms of making the points that he needed to make, particularly in exchange with ron williams over race and the employment of children in schools. so, you know, i think that that's the temperament he needs to have. >> does that mean he needs to be on the offense? is it better to be on the offense? should you get out front, i know everybody's seen this interview with my ex-wife. i guess this would apply for mitt romney too. listen, let's set the record straight about bain, or let's set the record straight about my taxes or is it better to say i'm going to avoid all of this until someone poses the question and i respond? >> i think it's a different game for mitt and for newt. i think newt has to walk a fine line. he does have to be on offense because he still is trailing mitt. for mitt romney the game is a little different. he needs to be focused on debating obama because in reality, republican voters are looking for the person who can best take on barack obama in the fall, and what's helped newt gingrich is that he's made the case that in the debates he would be the best one to do that. that showed up, you know, in the debate this past monday. mitt romney has been very good in the debates, and he's actually made that case pretty effectively as well as the poll numbers would bear out. what newt gingrich has to do is go back to making that case. he is at his best when he is going after barack obama, going after the media and not attacking negatively other candidates. so the offense has to be, i think, against president obama and not against mitt romney, especially if it turns nasty. >> brett, will cain. the story for the debates is not newt, but mitt romney who seemed to have his worst debate the other night. what happened? was he unprepared by someone like you to deal with his tax issue? >> the tax answer was very surprising to me. it was very uncharacteristic of how mitt has been in the debates. i think you're right that the debate on monday was one of his weaker performances, and so i think the mitt romney team's pretty confident. i think they'll have their act together tonight. mitt tends to rebound very well off of past bad performances in debates, so i expect that they'll have a tighter answer on the tax issue, but that has been a weakness over the past couple of days. i think that's opened the door for other candidates, particularly rick perry's been on the offensive on this and newt gingrich. so, you know, we'll see what governor romney has in store this evening for that answer, but i do think that is one of the questions that will be on the minds of the moderators and he'll be attacked for it on the candidates because it's a weakness that plays into some of the narrative on mitt romney. >> brett o'donnell joining us. i know you'll be watching the debate. appreciate your time. time to get an update on other stories making the news. >> soledad, in syria growing fears the country is plunging into an all out war. opposition forces say the government's crackdown killed 21 more demonstrators. at the same time today is the last day for the arab league monitors. they arrived last month but so far have been unable to calm things down. president obama heads to disney world later today to talk tourism. big business in the u.s. the president wants to make it easier for people in places like brazil and china to obtain travel visits to come here and spend their money. just in the last hour cnn confirms casey anthony was offered $1 million for an interview by the producers of a place called private elevator productions. casey was in talks with them earlier this month right before she split with her attorney, who say baez. now that he is gone, talks have resumed and a deal could be in the works. new weather worries for people in the pacific northwest after that big snowstorm, the biggest snowstorm in decades. warmer temperatures could cause severe flooding and make road conditions dangerous. nearly seven inches fell in seattle. let's get to meterologist rob marciano with some airport trouble brewing. >> good morning, christine. on top of that snow is ice this morning. seatac reporting two of their three runways currently shut down due to icing situations there. they're working hard to clear it out. the temperatures are below freezing. there's moisture in the area. problems in portland yesterday also. check out this video. because of the heavy snow and at times ice so they had power lines down. at one point over 30,000 people without power. now they're getting that situation cleared up. 28 degrees right now in seattle. 26 degrees in olympia. you see the cold air well entrenched. there's a warm layer obviously so that that moisture is falling in the form of rain and then freezing when it hits the surface. they have their problem there. flooding issues across western oregon now. some of that moisture finally starting to get into northern parts of california and they will take it there. there's your moisture plume on top of all the snow, rain, ice, we had winds over 100 miles an hour yesterday across the oregon coast line. this spreads inland into places like utah, even colorado where blizzard warnings are up. the winds are going to be fierce. a system brewing through the western great lakes now with some light snow. it will usher in chilly temperatures. minus 32 is what it feels like in minneapolis. winter finally arriving for some sports. quick check of this video. we showed you kids earlier playing in the snow. dogs don't care about the ice, christine. they don't care about the power. they don't care about school. they just want to get out and play. be careful out there in the northwest. it's slick going. >> nice, warm coat that's what makes it so much fun. >> exactly. >> rob, minding your business now. just in to cnn the labor department announces 352,000 jobless claims. this is the lowest since april 2008. that's good news for the economy. any time this number comes in below 400,000 it shows the labor market headed in the right direction. it shows you sort of the best conditions in three years, really, for people who are newly unemployed here. check on the markets. futures, no surprise for the dow, nasdaq, s&p all pointing higher. google today topping fortune's list of 100 best companies to work for. number 2, boston consulting group. coming in third, the sas institute. very good numbers on jobless claims, soledad. well' be watching the markets to see if they really like it. >> all right. thank you very much for that update, christine. appreciate it. religion and politics do mix if you're talking about south carolina. tony perkins has joined our panel. why don't you come in and join our panel. while you're hopping in, i'm going to throw up on the screen some poll numbers. go ahead. you can cross there. we're going to give you a look here. this is from the cnn poll. this is the cnn poll. look at the top line. this is romney support, born again versus not born again. evangelical support. if you look at that, the born again category you have romney at 26, gingrich at 23, santorum at 20. splitting that vote. some people would say it's a surprising number for mitt romney considering, i think, a lot of people felt like he hasn't really done a lot to reach out to evangelicals. i know we're putting our mic on you now. you look like you're up and ready to go. why don't you assess that number for me. is it a surprise how that has broken down, sir? welcome. have some coffee. >> good morning. >> i feel like i'm at home. there's grits on the table. >> yeah. we'll send them your way. >> okay. >> i think it's still very fluid. we see up and down, you look at the florida polls. you've got kind of the mixup there between santorum and gingrich. i think saturday may be another surprise as you see revelations -- >> a surprise in what way? >> i think the vote is still extremely fluid. i think what the polls are showing right now are not necessarily what the snapshot's going to be at the finish line on saturday. >> do you think this breaking news out of iowa has any impact on what could happen in south carolina because we're talking about the 34 votes? >> i do. it takes away the story line that mitt romney, that it's inevitable that he has secured these two early victories, historic for a non-incumbent. not the case now. >> tony, i have to ask you. you keep saying surprise. what surprise are you expecting? >> i don't think what the polls are showing right now, kind of this march, this snapshot we're seeing at the moment, just like we saw in iowa, this snapshot the week before the election there. >> can i ask you, that graphic that we put up seems to be the entire race encapsulated in one chart. romney getting 47%, and the more ideological part of the party or the tea party dividing being, fragmenting among the different candidates. when you endorsed rick santorum, the group endorsed rick santorum last weekend, is there a risk that that further frag ments the conservatives, especially since newt gingrich seems to be the one who has a realistic shot at beating romney in south carolina. >> so you mean by endorsing santorum he basically gave it to mitt romney? >> did that inadvertently, as eric erickson said, yeah, that probably does in the end help romney because as santorum gets stronger, it's yet another sliver peeled away from that vote that is resisting romney. he is able to kind of pursue a divide and conquer strategy. >> i guess that's one way to look at it. first let me say -- >> that was a slap. >> i have not endorsed rick santorum. over the weekend i was speaking for the group, our organization. we have not endorsed. the discussion that took place in texas about that was exactly about that point that you raise, that there is about 44% of primary voters are evangelicals and here in south carolina it's even higher, 60%. so that has been fragmented in the last election we saw it where there were multiple candidates, they couldn't get together. there was a desire to come together. historically that's not happened. it did happen in houston where a majority, super majority, 75% of those present decided they wanted to stick with rick santorum. i think the reason, the rationale was he's consistent on the issues. he's principled. we don't have to worry about things coming out in the news that would challenge his lead and so they thought, you know what, we're going to take a public stand, it's going to be with him. >> talking about things coming out on the news, we now know that it looks like newt gingrich's ex-wife has sat down to do an interview on abc news. that will come out sometime this evening. do you think -- what's the impact going to be for evangelicals wafrpg that? >> it's not new. i don't know what's going to be said. look, i think especially the evangelical community understand the issue of forgiveness. people can make mistakes. they can do things wrong, right, roland, and they can come back. >> you make so many mistakes all the time, tommy. >> the two of you, stop. stop. carry on. >> that's the makeup of the evangelical community. that does not necessarily translate into endorsing for leadership. think about it. when you look at the captain in the "costa concordia," the guy who abandoned his responsibility, who's going to put nim charge of a cruise ship again? i'm not getting on that cruise ship. i think people are going to process it. is it the deciding factor? i don't think so. but i think it is a makeup of the character. >> real quickly. if mitt romney wins saturday in south carolina, do you see a way to realistically deny him a nomination after that? >> i think this could be a much longer primary season. >> that's a long answer to a yes or no question. hold on. let's ask that again, sir. >> even if he wins. >> is it done? >> i don't think so. >> we've got to take a break. tony perkins, thank you for joining us. stick around for breakfast. still ahead, the tea party has proven to be a very powerful force in american politics so who are they supporting in south carolina? my job is to find the next big sound. they sound awesome tonight. and when i do find it, i share it with the world. you landed the u.s. tour ? done. this is fantastic ! music is my life and i want to make the most of it without missing a beat. fly without putting your life on pause. be yourself nonstop. american airlines. welcome back, everybody. of course on saturday we are looking toward the south carolina primary. in modern times apparently every winner of the gop primary has gone on to be the gop nominee. one group that could play an important role in saturday's contest is the tea party. erin primmer is a member of the tea party. feel free to dig into the grits. >> you look snazzy. >> so are you. >> no grabbing the guests. >> he's always snazzy. >> i know. we know. we know. all right. let's pop up a graphic because i think this is a good place to launch our discussion from. this is a look at south carolina tea party support. i want to put special focus on newt gingrich. he's among tea party supporters is pulling 31%, among other voters 13%. contrast that with mitt romney. tea party supporters at 26%, all other voters at 43%. what's your take away from this poll? >> i mean, aim he not surprised at all. newt gingrich has been involved in the tea party movement since the beginning. a lot of people don't realize that, but he's put together a good grounding here in south carolina. 's got support. this pole does not surprise me. >> the basic dynamic doesn't surprise me. the tea party support is divided pretty widely. gingrich is at the top, only 31%. if you look at the non-tea party, romney is much higher at 43. is the center of the party consolidating while the right is fragmenting and giving an advantage to mitt romney in that circumstance? >> well, i think that at the end of the day i understand the evangelicals and i know that santorum got the endorsement this past weekend, but at the end of the day everybody's going to be voting on jobs. any of these candidates are better than barack obama. so, you know, people are going to have to make up their mind. the tea party movement is tired of the establishment shoving candidates down our throat. >> i guess i'm asking is the tea party influence being dissipated because they cannot unify behind one candidate and in effect by doing that they are allowing the establishment republicans to pick the nominee? >> i think what's happening is you're starting to see the tea party coal less behind somebody. >> who is that somebody. >> i think you're seeing it behind newt gingrich. look, they all have support. i mean, santorum does. rick perry even has support. >> if you look at gingrich's number, that's 31%. that's hardly a number of coalescing, right? >> you guys, sarah palin is the only one that truly exsites the base and brings energy. there's no candidate out there that does that. >> she supported newt gingrich the other day. she said if she could vote in south carolina, she said she'd vote for newt. does that mean that that 31% now grows dramatically because she can excite the base? >> i think it probably is going to grow some. i think people are realizing that we have the field of candidates we have. we're not getting anybody else so you better choose now and get behind somebody. that's what's starting to happen. >> isn't this also a clear indication that when it comes to republican party politics, you can't just lock and load and think somehow that, well, this group is going to simply support this one particular person, you have social conservatives, you have financial conservatives, national security conservatives. when you have these liberal candidates, people will go in different directions. romney is saying give me a piece of this, piece of this, piece of this, i can still pull off the win. >> you know that people are divided, but i think it's anybody's race. everybody keeps saying it all depends on south carolina. look, we could have a very long process here. >> let me just ask you this. anybody's race. do many of your friends say they're going to vote for mitt romney? i ask you that because as those polls show, 25% of tea partiers, 40% in new hampshire like mitt romney. do many of your friends like mitt romney? >> the tea party is different all across the country. the tea party movement in georgia is different than the tea party movement in new hampshire. while the tea partiers in new hampshire might like mitt romney, you may not find that in other states. >> tea partiers in south carolina, they're the nikki haley endorsement, right, which brings in some tea party. you have other people who have used the word despise and disgust ultimately for romney. so when you look forward to a general election, can you expect somebody who has used the word despise and disgust f mitt romney is that candidate, do you expect them to be engaged and energized to be say i'm going to vote for him? >> i think at the end of the day we're going to work to defeat barack obama. these candidates have the chance now to get their message out there and talk about what they're going to do to turn the economy around. that's what everybody's focused on. you're going to have tea partiers support mitt romney and some support newt gingrich. it's all about the jobs. >> if you have them out there who say flat out that we believe in these things and he doesn't stand for it, do you think they will say come november, i can't back the guy on principle? are they going to put partisan before principle? >> each individual has to make that choice. people will be upset. everybody's going to be upset at some point, even with perry getting out of the race, if he gets out. at the end of the day -- >> not me. >> thank you very much. >> hey, hey, hey. >> side conversations at the end of the table. roland, stop. we have to go to commercial break. amy, thank you for joining us. we appreciate your time and insight. >> got a commercial break. help me get through the last seven minutes. still to come this morning, our reveal. a former mississippi governor haley barbour explains his decision to pardon four inmates who are convicted of murder straight ahead. because there are mountains to climb. ♪ dreams to be realized. ♪ new worlds to be explored and hearts to be won. quaker oats. energy to get you going, fiber to help fill you up and help keep your heart healthy. super people eat super grains. why did you buy my husband a falcon? thanks for the falcon. i didn't buy anyone a falcon. sure, you did. you saved us a lot of money on auto insurance. i used that money to buy a falcon. ergo, you bought me a falcon. i should've got a falcon. most people who switch to state farm save on average about $480. what they do with it, well, that's their business. oh, that explains a lot, actually. [ chuckles ] [ male announcer ] another reason people switch to state farm. aw, i could've got a falcon. insight. welcome back, everybody. we begin with our morning's reveal. roland, shush. i need you to focus. former mississippi governor haley barbour is explaining his decision to pardon four convicted murderers. you might remember the outgoing governor pardoned some 200 people before he left office. he came under fire when it was revealed that four of the people he pardoned were killers. he had pardoned them because they had been working part of their time as inmate trustees at his mansion. the former governor has been defending his decision because the families were outraged. in an editorial in the washington post barbour says this. the crimes must be punished but they're not hard core criminals. to work at the mansion the inmate must be classified as a minimum security by the department of corrections. they include david gatlin who was convicted of walking up to his estranged wife as she held her six week old daughter in her arms and shot her in the head. yesterday barbour had this to say to cbs news. >> i understand, recognize and respect the fact that if you were injured by somebody or if your loved one was killed that there may be vengeance, there may be fear, there may be all these things. when i became governor i made plain that i would follow the tradition of governors in mississippi. for decades the mansion, part of the staff are trustees from the state penitentiary. in my time all but one of them have been murderers because the experts say that those are the people who are the least likely to commit another crime. >> so we did some research. wanted to see if, in fact, what governor barbour was true. many convicted killers released from prison do commit crimes again. a 2002 department of justice story followed more than 270,000 prisoners for three years after their release. 1.7 were there because of homicide. within three years of their release 40% had been re-arrested. not all of them on homicide charges. some rapists were released. 46% of those released had committed another crime within three years. the survey does not qualify homicides by category, such as crime of passion, but domestic violence experts say that only serious counseling would keep somebody from abusing again. as for the prisoners, the current attorney general in mississippi is exploring whether or not he'll be able to put those prisoners back in prison and that state's new governor says he will not be continuing the tradition of pardons. that is our reveal for the day. we go right into end point, which is where we sum up our day. we have a guest end pointer. we asked aim amy to stick aroun. why don't you start for us. >> i'll say the tea party movement is not dead regardless of what people say. we're having an impact. you can see that in the poll numbers. i don't think whoever wins the nomination, they cannot do it without the support of the tea party. they need the passion, the fire in the belly, boots on the ground to defeat barack obama. >> roland martin? >> i want to see today how many times newt gingrich mentions his grandkids and his daughters tonight in the debate. that's the one thing i'm looking for. also, i hope chucky comes out. that's crazy, deranged newt. if chucky comes out, mitt romney is going to say, baby, i'm winning on saturday. >> will cain, do not laugh at his jokes. >> whether we're talking about exit polls in new hampshire, or here in south carolina, a surprising number of voters like mitt romney. it says to me they're going to vote for him but they're not going to tell their friends about it. >> no, look, one question. >> is that a joke. >> one question looms over everything else. can newt gingrich convince those conservatives skeptical of romney that the on