this volatile republican nominating contest. since the last debate nearly a month ago, rick santorum has surged into the lead in the national polls. but it's a mitt romney-santorum dead heat in one of the states that votes next, that's michigan. and the polls here in arizona suggest a late shift here perhaps in governor romney's favor. our chief political analyst gloria borger is here to get us started. gloria let's focus on the poll here today. we had a poll out yesterday that showed a relatively close rates here. but if you look at the nbc marist poll they show governor romney with a pretty big lead, a healthy lead here. a lot of debates within the campaigns about the number. but why arizona apparently shifting in romney's favor? >> well, first of all, very very fluid as you know. and there's been a lot of changes in the last four or five days. and the shift has been to romney. you can't say it's because he's got a lot of ads on the air. you could also say perhaps -- and this is all conjecture, that it might be about rick santorum and the social issues and talking about satan, et cetera. but there's one thing to keep in mind that is really important here and that is early voting. by some estimates almost half of all the voter whoser going to vote have already voted. and mitt romney is doing very well winning more than a majority of those votes. so that could really be the key to his success if he's going to have it in this state. >> so maybe because of the early voting, tonight's debate not as important in arizona, although there's still plenty of time for people to get out and vote. but in the state of michigan where essentially you have a dead heat. latest polls, romney 37%, santorum 35%. 13% for ron paul, speaker gingrich at 8%. in michigan where senator santorum has spent more time are incredible. >> very, very important. i mean, if mitt romney loses his home state, this race is wide open again. and i think what we see for mitt romney is something we have seen in all the exit polls you've been looking at so closely, which is he's got problems with the tea party. he's got problems with evangelical voters. he's got problems with voters who describe themselves as very conservative. and all of those voters like rick santorum. so he's -- mitt romney tonight has to let those tea party voters know, yu know what? he's not as fiscally conservative as you might believe. because that's his opening on rick santorum. >> gloria stand by. often on debate days candidates take a low-key approach in the hour leading up to the contest. but not governor romney. looking to answer questions about his conservative credentials, romney today laid out a proposal he said would encourage economic growth by making the tax code flatter and fairer. >> i'm going to lower rates across the board for all americans by 20%. all right? [ cheers and applause ] >> i want to make sure that you understand, for middle income families the deductibility of home mortgage interest and charitable contributions those things will continue. for high income folks we're going to cut back on that. >> and this afternoon in tucson, rick santorum drew laughs from a tea party audience by quoting something the former presidential candidate jon huntsman said about governor romney earlier. >> a track record that stands solidly on the things that we're talking about. not someone who's been, as one person has suggested, a well-oiled weather weather vane. i didn't say that [ laughter ] >> just saying. that's all. just saying. >> cnn national political correspondent jim acosta joins us. jim you see senator santorum somewhat playful but serious tone heading into the debate. you've been talking about the romney and santorum campaigns about the stakes and strategies coming in. governor romney. what's he going to do? >> no kid gloves in tonight's debate. you heard rick santorum saying welcome to the party, governor romney. when i went to the romney people and asked them about what senator santorum had to say, they fired right back. it took about a minute for the spokesman to get back to me to say the ditches between our plan and senator santorum's plan, his plan will increase the deficit. this tax plan whether it was a good idea for the romney campaign to float this out tonight or not will be a focus. >> senator santorum comes in with the momentum. the challenge is can the anti-romney candidate hold and sustain the momentum. many had that ball and all dropped it. >> to play off what gloria said this talk of satan, whether this is hurting him in arizona, he went back to the garden of good and evil today in that speech today in tucson. he was talking about food and evil. i had a chance to talk to rick santorum last night and ask him about that satan speech he gave in 2008. he defended it. he did not make any apologies. he said i'm a man of faith. i am a man who thinks of good and evil in this world and he's not sclenging from it. it's going to be interesting to see does anybody test him on tonight's debate? these social issues have been a weak mitt romney. does he go there? >> jim acosta, gloria borger thank so much. even though our focus is on tonight's big debate in arizona there are critical sflemts a major international crisis. we're talking about syria now. [ speaking in foreign language ] >> you see the violent pictures there. at least 60 people reportedly killed across syria today as government forces stepped up attacks on several cities. overall death toll now nearing 9,000 with no end in sight to the violence. today representatives from 70 nations gather in tunisia to ask what do we do. two western journalists were among those killed today in syria. mauer marie colvin and fetch photographer remi ochlik were in homs when the house they were staying a bomb struck. >> this is the worst, anderson, for many reasons. the last one i mean i think the last time we talked i was in misrata. it's partly personal safety, i guess. there's nowhere to run. the syrian army is holding the perimeters. and there are just full on ordina ordinates being poured into the city and no predictions where it's going to land. >> anderson cooper joins us live now. listening to that conversation from last night we were watching here during the program last night and leading forward to listen to her urgent report because she's so good has to be tough to listen to that now knowing what happened overnight. >> it's really shocking. i mean, her voice, just hearing it again, it was always so cool under fire. and even though she had been to so many conflicts and so many front lines she never lost her humanity and her ability to see with a new way of seeing it and to bring that humanity to all of us. and i think that's what made her so remarkable. she was such a brave, such a good reporter, but so very human even in the midst of all this inhumanity. >> and i think her experience is important. you mention it. she kept her cool, she was always calm. she liked to go where the action was and expose the outrage, if you will. listen to this part of your conversation where she is talk talking about the syrian tactics. >> it's a complete and utter lie that they are only going after terrorists. there are rockets, shell, tank shells, anti-aircrafts being fired in a parallel line into the city. the syrian army is shelling the city of cold, starving civilians. >> marie colvin, i know it's impossible to stay safe but please try. thank you for talking to us. >> thanks very much, anderson. >> anderson, two things about that snippet there jump out at you. one is her direct and straightforward telling it like it is reporting essentially saying what the syrian government is tell you can is a lie. and then at the end, for give me, my friend, you did the right thing saying stay safe but then you listen it gives you a chill. >> she used the word" lie" which i think a lot of people don't lose. people in syria and around the world appreciate marie colvin was willing to use that word when she saw a lie. day after day the regime is lying about what is happening there, what they're doing there, atrocities they're committing there. in the end you always sound like an idiot when you're safe here on the stateside and not in a war zone. stay safe. you know you can't and she knows you can't. but she chose to go even though she knew there was no place to stay safe. and homs unlike so many other places, there's no place you can escape. to they're surrounded. anybody there can get killed. one of the things, john, people keep saying she's fearless. and i don't think that gives her enough credit. i think she like many people who report from war zones, i think she felt fear but she never allowed fear to stop her from going. and i think that's what makes her heroic and that's what made her so brave. >> a very important point you make there, put it in perspective at the end. we mourn our two fall len comrades and salute the brave journalists at cnn and other journalist whose continue reporting in such grave conditions. much more ahead tonight on this tragedy on "ac 360." the arizona governor jan brewer on what the republican candidates need to do to win her endorsement. later, governor christie's not so polite comments on his push for higher taxes on the wealthy. >> he should just write a check and shut up, really, and just contribute, okay? i mean, the fact of the matter is that i'm tired of hearing about it. 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[ engine revving ] the all-new 2013 lexus gs. there's no going back. there's a lot at stake for the candidates in tonight's debate including arizona governor jan brewer's endorsement. she says she's held out on picking a candidate because she wants to see how they perform on her home turf. what's it going to take to get the nod from arizona's republican governor. what are you looking for? >> i'm looking for someone to come out and be very decisive and very concise in exactly what they mean when they say what going to do about all the issues we've been in the forefront on. >> 8% unemployment rate in your state, third in the nation when it comes to the foreclosure problem. have the candidates so far whether congressman paul, governor romney, senator santorum, speaker gingrich, talked in enough detail for you on those issues to makes you comfortable? >> no. >> i need concrete answers about what they're going to do. are we going to continue the bailout of the mortgage companies and the banks? what are we going to do? it comes back to jobs and the economy. we need less regulation, we need them to be inspirationspirational in which the states can work to increase our economy. that's what we want to hear tonight, about that and of course about states' rights, something that's very, very important. we as governors, whether we're republican or democrat, we really believe that we know what's best for our people. and in arizona particularly we're very interested about natural resources. arizona, our beautiful state, was built on mining. copper is huge here. and now uranium. then we have the federal government coming in writing all these rules and regulations and telling us that we can't do this and we can't do that. we need concise, clear answers. >> as you know, this state has drawn a lot of national attention in driving some of the immigration politics in the country. your state immigration law quite controversial. you've been back and forth with the president about this issue. within the republican party all these candidates say they support the right of arizona to have its own law and alabama and other states that have followed and copied suit. other states, governor jeb bush, be careful about these issues, the tone, the fast-growing latino population could be turned off. you have that population in the state. what's the challenge for the republican party to be right on the issue but not put off fish you will in the rhetoric. >> i think it's important for people to understand first and foremost, those of us who have lived in arizona and southern california, we have a diverse population. the hispanic population has been part of all of our lives since we've been born here or grown up here. so it's not about race and it's not about bigotry, it's all about the rule of law. it is against the law to come into our state lowlily. but more than that is we need our border secured. the simple fact is that the drug cartels are coming in through arizona. arizona is the gateway for all the narcotics and the crime that is connected with it. they kidnap people that are coming across illegally, they take them to drop houses. they ex tort money from the families in mexico. they torture them. and they talk about civil rights. and they're right in our neighborhoods and our people on the border are afraid to go to sleep at night on their ranches. >> after the debate tonight there'll be just a handful of days before the people of your state finish voting. some might have voted already. will you endorse tonight after the debate? will you wait a day or two to think about it? >> actually i don't know. if i'm totally convinced tonight i will announce tonight. but i think i would like to give ate couple of days and think about what they have said and digest it and make that announcement of course before our primary on the 28th. >> we'll check in with you after the the debate tonight. we'll see what you're thinking. governor brewer, nice for in your state. thanks for the beautiful weather. rick perry knows better than anyone the hits and misses of deet baits. he tells us what his candidate, newt gingrich, needs to do tonight. plus training your way into heaven. the pope gives good lessons in being a catholic in 140 characters or less. [ male announcer ] this...is the network. a living, breathing intelligence that is helping business rethink how to do business. in here, inventory can be taught to learn. ♪ in here, machines have a voice... ♪ [ male announcer ] in here, medical history follows you... even when you're away from home. it's the at&t network -- a network of possibilities, creating and integrating solutions, helping business, and the world...work. rethink possible. welcome back. kate bolduan joins us now with the latest news you need to know right now. >> reporter: good evening, everyone. more news to catch you up on. in afghanistan today brought another violent round of protests against the burning of korans by nato troops. at least five people died today when police fired on one crowd. the korans and other religious materials were detained at a military facility because they contained what the u.s. military calls extremist inscriptions. republican governor chris christie has some pretty blunt advice for billionaire warren buffett. stop complaining that taxes on upper-income americans are too low. check out what he tells cnn's piers morgan tonight. >> so tired of talking about warren buffett. he should just write a check and shut up, really, and just contribute, okay? the fact of the matter is that i'm tired of hearing about it. if he wants to give the the government more money he's got the ability to write a check. go ahead and write it. >> reporter: pretty blunt advice. also the pontifical counsel for social communications or pope benedict's social media team is using twitters in hoping to get catholics focus more on lent. the pope who you see here using an ipad will post spiritual guidance on twitter. the goal is to engage the media savvy younger generation with the pope's messages. i guess the question eggs how long will it take for the pope to be following @john king cnn. >> #give up dessert. #be nice at home. that's good to see the pope adapting to modern times to appeal to young people. great idea. 90 minutes away from the big debate. if you've got a question for the candidates, break out your ipad like the pope. still time to submit it on facebook or twitter. after the break, newt gingrich does the unthinkable. >> i am going to give up desserts. all desserts. if there was a pill to help protect your eye health as you age... would you take it? well, there is. 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[ male announcer ] ocuvite. help protect your eye health. ...we inspected his brakes for free. free is good. free is very good. my money. my choice. my meineke. looking at live pictures there of the mesa arts center in mesa, arizona. the republican presidential candidates will be arriving soon for tonight's crucial cnn debate at the state that votes next tuesday. we're just 90 minutes away from what could be the candidates's final encounter in a setting that will look quite different than the earlier debates. texas governor rick perry took part in many of these encounters. his last-minute advice for all the candidates, including his choice, former house speaker newt gingrich. plus horrifying scenes of a rush hour train killing at least 49 people in argentina. the obama administration is trying to get a jump on tonight's big republican debate, taking a page from every republican candidate's play book the president today proposing dramatically lower tax rates for wisconsi for businesses and corporations. jessica yellin, walk us through the president's plan. >> reporter: they call it a framework that begins the process of corporate tax reform. the big picture points of this plan, they propose reducing the current tax rate for corporations from 35% to 28% for most companies. but for manufacturing companies the effective rate for them would be 25%. it would also under this proposal create a new tax for companies that have overseas profits. the goal of that is to encourage companies to invest and hire here in the u.s. the administration also says it would simplify the tax code and keep all these changes deficit neutral. in big picture, john, they say the goal is to eliminate subsidies and loopholes so that certain companies like oil and gas companies would in the end see their taxes go up but other companies that are now paying the full 35% would end up seeing their taxes go down. john? >> and jessica, the administration says it would love the congress to move on this as soon as possible. but they understand the political environment that's most unlikely. is the president instead more drawing a contrast perhaps with the republican candidates? anyone in particular in mind? >> reporter: well, they insist this could get done this year. believe that if you will. he's definitely wading into the tax fight that's happening in the republican race. and i think just trying to start drawing contrasts with the republicans in general, whether it's romney or santorum. i think one thing you have to take note of is the fact that they single out the manufacturing sector for a lower tax rate. and they say that's because they believe there's a ripple effect when you encourage manufacturing it has a beneficial impact on the rest of the economy. but you can't help but notice that this could also help him in manufacturing states that are important for him to win, states like ohio, wisconsin, even north carolina and michigan have big manufacturing bases as well, john. >> every policy proposal we get these days you have to put it in the context of the campaign and months to come. jessica, thanks. here in arizona tonight, mitt romney warned the president's tax plan isn't he says what it seems. >> he's proposing today a corporate tax plan which i understand sounds like he's lowering taxes but in fact he's raising taxes. raising taxes on businesses by hundreds of billions of dollars. >> governor romney released some new details of his own tax planned to. they include slashing the income tax rate by 20% with a top bracket of 28%. governor romney also wants to cut the corporate tax rate to 25%. that's lower than the president's 28% corporate tax. also romney would limit deductions on mortgaged an charitable contributions for upper income tax payers but not for those in the middle class. er erin burnett, when you look at the romney plan missing anything? >> we'll get more detail on friday. this is from a man who had laid out the 59 or 69-point plan which was supposedly very detailed but has been labelled as lackluster and much like the president's plan. he's clearly feeling the heat. he's coming out with this new plan. talking to people today, the biggest criticism i'm hearing about this plan is it doesn't seem to pay for itself, that you lose a lot of revenue. now, we'll see if he gets more details on this on friday as to whether that's true or not. but in particular is that corporate tax rate going to pay for itself? some other cuts in here that as i said some people that even lean to the right in the economics sphere seem to think he's relying on quote unquote luck, economic growth to come back big time to pay for this. >> you also talked to a senior treasury department official about the president's plan and his approach. what are they looking to accomplish? >> i had a conversation with a top treasury official. they said look our goal here is to try to -- i kind of thought you might like this. hire engineers, fire the tax engineers. the goal is to get rid of the lobbyists and scores of lobbyists and lawyers we have running this country. if you were to go to a flat tax overnight i don't know what you'd do with all the people who lost jobs. they say this is a conversation -- a starting point for the conversation. they say they can't go below 28% and raise revenue but they'll consider it. jessica was talking about that crucial issue of profits overseas being taxed. that is a lightning rod issue in corporate america. the top treasury official was very careful to say, look. we didn't put a rate on what we'd tax that money at. we just want to put it on the table. i get the impression there's a lot of bargaining chips already out there because they want to get major reform done but they want to look like they're trying to compromise. >> start the conversation. erin burnett, more at the top of the hour. thanks so much. it's been 27 days since the republican presidential candidates last met on stage. 27 days for open of the candidates to prepare for tonight's crucial showdown. the final debate for super tuesday. for newt gingrich who finds himself down in the polls, how does he gear up for tonight? listen. >> i think i do much better when we talk about big topics and big solutions and much worse when you get into the negative campaign. so my goal will be to talk about big solutions like 2.50 a gal gasoline. >> you talked a lot about governor romney is so dishonest it's hard to debate him based on the last times. is it safe to say he's probably going to be making some the same snamts. >> i don't know. but my goal will to be go back to the big solutions and big issues and not get drug down to his level. >> now, each candidate including speaker gingrich faces unique challenges at tonight's debate. our chief political analyst gloria borger is back with us. let's state-of-the-a let's start with mitt romney. you say look presidential and don't get personal. >> he's not really good on the attack. people don't like that. this is his moment to tell people, okay, you think i'm the most electable which is what all the polls show. this is why. so don't give into any big cat fights there. no sniping, no cat fights. >> don't talk about barack obama. >> rick santorum first time at center stage, you say deflect attacks to president obama and defend his faith. >> i was talking to somebody in the santorum campaign just before i came on the air. they say he's really looking forward to this by the way. he's walking over rocky-like to the debate hall tonight. and he's going to be talking about barack obama. and if he is asked about his faith he will defend it. >> and speaker gingrich we just heard from speaker gingrich. he says he wants to talk about big ideas. you say it's critical he take back the spotlight on the issues. >> i think this is not the moment for newt gingrich to go on the attack. i think he's got to talk about the issues and he's got to present himself, john, as the bold conservative in this race. the person with the the big ideas. because that's when he does the best. >> and you say ron paul, the fourth candidate tonight, doesn't have a win yet. he's the only candidate who doesn't have a win yet. you say stay candid. why? >> that's his appeal. his appeal is that he's candid. i also bet you that he's going to end up if he attacks anybody it's going to be rick santorum. >> gloria borger, thanks. gloria will be with us throughout the night. today is ash wednesday, the first day of lent for roman catholic licks, a time or reflection for christians who observe this day's special meaning. also time for many of the faithful to give up something they enjoy. true of course for all catholics including newt gingrich and his wife calista. >> what are you giving up for lent? have you decided? >> i am going to give up desserts. all desserts. for all of lent. >> i challenge you to ask her what she's giving up. >> good morning. >> what are you giving up? >> i'm giving up my opinion. >> that doesn't count. >> let's continue our conversation about the big stage in tonight's debate with a man who knows what it's like to be up there on the stage. the one-time candidate the former texas governor rick perry now a gingrich supporter. good to see you. speaker gingrich has not disappeared but he's fallen a bit. after south carolina he was the frontrunner. that's when governor perry got out of the race. senator santorum has the momentum at the moment. you note dynamic of the race. you were trying to take that spot and you had it for awhile to be the alternative to mitt romney, how has senator santorum taken that trophy away from your guy? >> let me just say that we've had a lot of frontrunners in this case and may have two or three more front runners before august gets here. it won't surprise me for this to go all the way to the convention. but newt's the -- i tell people newt's the real deal. he's the real fiscal conservative. he's the real social conservative. he's the real tenth amendment believing and breathing individual on the stage. and each one of the other candidates, whether it's on the military side or whether it's on the fiscal conservative side or whether it's on the social issues side, the other candidates can be and are being picked apart a little bit by the republican faithful out there. so newt has been always and will continue to be the individual who from a fiscal conservative standpoint, the person who's balanced budgets. when you really get down to what is it that's facing america that most americans are gravely concerned about is they don't have a job. they've got family members that are either under employed or unemployed. and so getting this country back on track from an economic standpoint. nut's done it before he's balanced the budgets. that's the driving force for people out there. >> you say you heard him in the florida debates where he tried to be above it all and big and the other candidates outmaneuvered him. does he need to pick fights? >> i think he can be church hillian. he's got the great trait and ability to do it. when you take as much water on as he did with the negative ads that came out of florida, it's going to beat you down. he didn't have the ability nor the money -- we'll just say he didn't have the money. certainly has the ability to fight back. but when you have that much money spent against you it's going to make a difference. and i think that's what happened post-south carolina. so i full well expect for him to be out on the stage tonight, being feisty when he feats to be but also being very churchillian when he stands there intellectually engaged talking about the big issues and getting down in the weeds if he needs to to bring the point home. >> you said we cowl have two or three front runners. that means either congressman paul takes it over or somebody else. why is that? normally in republican races we know by now. you have a party that seems to be an internal tug-of-war. some call it civil war what should be about the issues. what should be first. what's going on in the republican party? >> i think 20 debates is part of what's going on in the republican party. the idea -- that's history. you all have changed the dynamic for the presidential election. so that's part of it. but also i think that the candidates are talking about the issues that are important to them. and i go back to it's about the economy. every republican, social issues is important, the military is important. all these other issues are important. but when we talk to people across this country, it's about the economy. and it's about who has the plan that can put america back on track. who knows how to work in that shark tank up there. >> but if we keep going from frontrunner to frontrunner, that means nobody has convinced the republican electorate yet they're that guy convincingly. >> you're pretty close to being spot on. if we were this thing would be over with. if there was one individual that came forward and said hey listen this is the person that can beat barack obama. this is the person who gets this country back going. i happen to think it's newt gingrich. i'm pretty convinced of that. but the bulk of the republican people out there aren't convinced yet. >> good to see you again. thank you, sir. tonight's truth, we're down to the final four, the last debate before super tuesday with no clear frontrunner. the republican presidential race remains as uncertain as ever. plus you won't want to miss this sad story. a horrific scene in argentina as a train slams into a platform killing dozens, injures hundreds. the latest on what went wrong and the fate of those who survived. ♪ ( whirring and crackling sounds ) man: assembly lines that fix themselves. the most innovative companies are doing things they never could before, by building on the cisco intelligent network. but proven technologies allow natural gas producers to supply affordable, cleaner energy, while protecting our environment. across america, these technologies protect air - by monitoring air quality and reducing emissions... ...protect water - through conservation and self-contained recycling systems... ... and protect land - by reducing our footprint and respecting wildlife. america's natural gas... domestic, abundant, clean energy to power our lives... that's smarter power today. have 46 grams of whole grains... mmmm. ...and a touch of sweetness. you'll be delighted to discover how good they taste. get your free sample of quaker oatmeal squares on facebook. a few weeks ago, some were complaining of debate fatigue. now we hear talk of debate withdrawal. it's been almost a month after all since all the republican presidential contenders shared a stage. tonight's truth underscores the critical stakes of the showdown now a little more than an hour away. we're down to the final four. paul, santorum, romney and gingrich, in a race that has been volatile from the outset and at this big moment remains as uncertain as ever. nine states have voted so far. governor romney has won four, senator santorum four, speaker gingrich one. there is no clear frontrunner. and in a race shaped and reshaped repeatedly by the crowded debate schedule, tonight's fateoff could be the final debate of the gop campaign. we are certain it is the last one before the next 14 states add their voices and their votes. arizona and michigan on tuesday, wyoming and washington state later next week. and then ten states. ten primaries and caucuses on super tuesday. that's march 6th. here's what we know leading into tonight. the establishment that has long viewed governor romney as the inevitable nominee and strongest general lexicon tender now has a serious case of the jitters and second thoughts. it is tonight testing time for senator santorum. can he unlike the many others before him sustain a run as the conservative alternative to romney? and truth is, here's something we don't know. which newt gingrich will show up tonight? the statesman or the gladiator? to come back again, gingrich need to stop the santorum surge. and debates have been his favorite venue throughout this campaign. let's talk truth and set the debate stakes tonight with our contributors, erick erickson, donna brazil el and -- let's talk to the conservative in the group. the volatility has been fascinating in this race. from my perspective, it's fun. why and what do you see ace the most important dynamic? >> to quote george will, we have a frontrunner in the race, his first name is romney and his last name is not. who is the guy to down against mitt romney. some thought barack obama would be strong, some didn't want to go up against mitt romney's money. santorum and gingrich have held on and look what's happened. we have not had a clear frontrunner then other than more votes go to the non-romney candidate. >> donna, you're a veteran of presidential candidates. do we not have a frontrunner because each has had good weeks or bad weeks or because the republican electorate doesn't know what it's looking for? >> i think it's a sign of health of a political party to have a long campaign process because the voters get an opportunity in all these states, which by nature they're diverse, they're different. so they're still on a shopping spree, someone who will represent their conservative values but also one who's electable in the fall, who can beat president obama which i think is still difficult given the fact that the economy is improving. democrats are closing that enthusiasm gap. so democrats are prepared for whoever turns out to be the republican romney. >> and yet, ed, this is the home state of the last republican nominee, john mccain. if you came to this state 10 or 15 years ago, the people who were leading the republican party and the issues that were sort of at the forefront of the republican agenda a lot different than they are now. >> very different now. what would have been considered a very conservative republican 10 or 15 years ago is now considered a rhino practically. it's a very different place. and i think the problem with a lot of the national candidates when they come to a place like this, in arizona it's very clearly defined, the hard right in arizona still has total control of the legislature and the governor's office and stuff like that. so arizona voters know who they like. and they like those kind of people. in this kind of debate, these guys are trying to win the middle. they've got to win the middle in order to win the national election. and that's a completely different animal. you're speaking to different people. within this room are going to be speaking to people who were probably not the audience that they're actually trying to reach. >> it's a fascinating point, though, the audience they're trying to reach now because of that because you don't have a frontrunner, no clear favorite, if -- it is a big if -- whoever wins this will tack back to the center. we'll watch that if and when it happens. right now you have this fierce fight. governor romney hoped to have this locked up by now. you see him attacking more conservative. you see senator santorum at the moment with a very right strategy which i think short term goal try to knock gingrich out of the race. wake up super tuesday in a runoff with governor romney. this race is moving right. not to the center. >> yes. the issue to me, though, is i think it's moving right on social issues, not necessarily on fiscal issues. this is an issue where i think the conservatives fiscal issues right now would resonate with the country. cutting taxes, reforming the tax code, reforming it, simplifying it, cutting regulations, helping small businesses. we're having a debate in the social issues because we have a lot of bible belt states coming up on super tuesday. but i think the candidates need to recognize some of the principles can be political liabilities in the general. i'm very sympathetic and agree with rick santorum on social issues. but this election is about the economy. >> the pro-obama super pac up to a little mischief in michigan. let's listen to their ad right now. >> his message was clear. . let detroit go bankrupt. >> mitt romney. there's no question he made a fortune from businesses he helped destroy, even when the businesses failed. romney came out ahead. ahead. are those the values we want in an american president? >> so why would a pro-democratic, a pro-obama group obviously be trying to influence the republican race, the michigan primary is the same day as arizona's, next tuesday. trying to prolong it, trying to get santorum instead of romney? what's the goal here? >> you know, whenever you have an uncontested primary, on our side this time, just like george bush in 2004, you're trying to not only wake up your party, your faithful, but you're trying to help define the candidate who's likely to emerge as the republicans finish their process. so they're trying to define mitt romney as someone who's a quitter when it comes to american jobs in this country. and i think that's a pretty effective spot. >> a little mischief making. >> and four years ago the democra democrats ceded the state because mccain was the nominee. will this be a battleground in the fall? >> it could be, but it depends on whether or not the latino vote comes out. there was a little bit of a disappointment in '010 with the latino vote, because they thought that with the passage of sb-1070 and a lot of the animosity that was created, there were a lot of voter registration drives, but in that race, republicans did very, very well. >> ed martini, donna brazile, thanks so much. we'll take a quick break. but when we come back, the jury in the trial of the uva lacrosse trial reaching a verdict. wake up! that's good morning, veggie style. hmmm. for half the calories plus veggie nutrition. could've had a v8. weight loss programs can be expensive. so to save some money, i just got the popular girls from the local middle school to follow me around. ew. seriously? so gross. ew. seriously? that is so gross. ew. seriously? dude that is so totally gross. so gross...i know. there's an easier way to save. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. i want to bring you some breaking news now. a verdict in a case that drew national attention. george hughley has been convicted by a jury of second-degree murder, also of grand larceny. you might recall, he's the university of virginia lacrosse player who was accused of fatally beating, now found guilty of fatally beating his ex-girlfriend back in 2010. george hughley quiconvicted of second-degree murder now in the death of yeardley love. she was 22 years old when this case drew national attention. he was accused of beating her. a letter found in love's death after her death. jurors deliberated for eight hours yesterday before breaking, and resuming their deliberations today. george hughley convicted of second-degree murder. you see pictures of the defendant going into court, a case that drew national attention after the 22-year-old victim was killed back in 2010. more on this story as it develops tonight, including next on "erin burnett outfront." we're preparing here in mesa, arizona, for the big republican debate tonight. four candidates on stage, that has been the case for some time, the final four. but when you see the debate tonight, the debate hall and the atmospherics will be a little bit different. take a look. >> this is cnn's seventh debate of 2012 republican nominating cycle, the 20th debate overall. you're looking at the mesa arts center. this is our venue in beautiful downtown mesa, arizona. arizona votes on tuesday. you're seeing our group putting the finishing touches on the preparations. but among the vips, governor jan brewer, the former vice president, dan quayle lives in arizona now, he'll be here as well. as you look around the hall, some of ourback backdrop looks quite familiar, you see the seal of the united states. but at all of our prior debates, the kand have said standing at podiums, but tonight they'll sit down at a desk. i'll be sitting over here at a separate table asking the questions. we'll also take questions from our studio audience, as we have in the past, questions from twitter, questions from facebook, questions from cnnpolitics.com, still a chance for you to participate at home if you have a question. please send it in online and take a look. it's a very important night tonight. these are the final four contenders. it's been nearly a month since they have had a debate together. this one comes at a critical time. it's the final debate on the books. as i noted, arizona and michigan, but on tuesday, then washington state on saturday, the wyoming caucuses coming up as well. and then a host of contests all over the map on super tuesday. it's been a very unpredictable, a very volatile republican race, and now with the calendar moving in a much more aggressive fashion, an opportunity for the candidates to get back into debate season tonight. and we're waiting for the candidates to arrive here at the mesa art center. the debate a little more than an hour away, and as we wait, let's bring back in kate balduan with news you need to know. >> at least 49 were killed and more than 600 rush hour commuters were injured when a train plowed into a platform at one of buenos aires' argentina's main rail stations this morning. early indications are that the train was having trouble with its brakes. and more than a month after the "costa concordia" capsized off the italian coast, how can you forget that, divers discovered eight more bodies on the cruise liner. the grim recovery raises the number of confirmed dead to 25. seven people are still missing there. unbelievable. and on cnn today, the reverend franklin graham clarified some remarks that made big headlines yesterday, when graham seemed to question president obama's christian faith. first, here's what he told msnbc's "morning joe" yesterday. >> he's come out saying that he's a christian, so i think the question is, wahat is a christian? >> so you don't take him at his word when he says he's a christian? >> well, he's said he is a christian, so i have to assume that he is. >> and here's what graham says to cnn today. >> i'm not questioning whether he's a christian or not. i disagree with his position on abortion. i apologize if this has gotten blown out of proportion. it's unfortunate, but they're the once who brought it up. and i do not question the president's faith at all. i'm not questioning that. i'm questioning his values. >> john, this does not ever seem to go away, it seems. but on the big news of tonight, i've got to ask you, you're asking a lot of questions this evening, big debate, huge stakes. what are you looking forward to? >> you know, i'm interested in these candidates. it's a fascinating dynamic at play. yes, conservative voters want to know where are they on taxes, where are they on