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this volatile republican nominating contest. since the last debate nearly a month ago, rick santorum has surged into the lead in the national polls. but it s a mitt romney-santorum dead heat in one of the states that votes next, that s michigan. and the polls here in arizona suggest a late shift here perhaps in governor romney s favor. our chief political analyst gloria borger is here to get us started. gloria let s focus on the poll here today. we had a poll out yesterday that showed a relatively close rates here. but if you look at the nbc marist poll they show governor romney with a pretty big lead, a healthy lead here. a lot of debates within the campaigns about the number. but why arizona apparently shifting in romney s favor? well, first of all, very very fluid as you know. and there s been a lot of changes in the last four or five days. and the shift has been to romney. you can t say it s because he s got a lot of ads on the air. you could also say perhaps an ....