what about fears of recession? >> it's a very difficult balance here because if they do too much they risk short circuiting this economic recovery, starting a recession, but if they don't do enough, then inflation can move out of control. larry summers who's been sounding the inflation alarm for much of the past year, he's not very optimistic. the foreign u.s. secretary put out this line. he said, the fed's current policy trajectory is likely to lead to stagflation and ultimately a major inflection. stagflation is a toxic mix of slow growth and high inflation something we saw in the late '70s, early '80s. it's hard to get out of. no one wants to see that. if consumer prices start to ease, then the fed could feel vindicated here with their patient approach. if not, i do think the recession