Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20150121

We await the word from the European Central bank tomorrow. Thats going to be very interesting. Yes, well get to more on that in a second. What all the Central Banks are up to. Oil rebounding but that didnt stop canada from cutting its key Interest Rate north of the border and they did that because of how the dramatic fall in oil prices is rippling through the nations economy. Well get into that a lot more with to do ameritrades ceo fred tomczyk is back with us. They had good looking earnings. They had record asset accumulation by their clients in the last quarter. What are they doing with that money, thats the question, what their clients are doing with that money. And this is not a technical glitch. Look at netflix, you talked about this last night. They had blowout earnings. It is up 17 , about a 60 gain after those earnings the explosive growth first reported on the closing bell yesterday. We will follow that stock into the close and at least one of our guests says you can still buy netflix and make money. Lets look at where we stand in the markets going into the final hour of trade. The dow has been down and up right now. Its winning to the upside about 17 points. The s p adding about 7. Thats about a third of a percent there. The nasdaq meanwhile putting in a gain of about 10. I dont know how word got out, but it is true, later in the program today you will have the entire motley crue band the classic rock band motley crue will be here with alice cooper today. Yes, that actually is happening. I thought when you sate motley crue you might be talking about the group joining us. Thats where i was going. We have our own motley crue and they include jack ver rouge bouroudjian on drums. Keith fitzgerald is lead guitarist with Money Map Press and the lead singer of course is Rick Santelli from chicago. The wall street journal earlier today as we await this highly anticipated word from the European Central bank about how whether theyre going to be buying up bonds and start their own easy money policy the word got around ther going to buy up 58 billion a month. The market has done absolutely nothing with that today. What do you make of that here if, in fact thats a true report . Well, i think its a balloon they floated with good purpose, to just make sure that the market was somewhat prepared and i have to tell you, 50 billion air rows 58 billion a month for at least a year is pretty much in line with what traders are looking for. The issue with traders, just like many of us who are parents and have kids its never enough. So really the issue tomorrow is twofold. All the positions that have been on really since thanksgiving short euro versus everything looking for bond yields to keep dropping and long equities look at the dax today, what happens to the positions that are big winners . Do they stick around or get out and whats the next trade . What do newcomers do . Its about looking at the carrot of the future with regard to all the gifts the central bank will give. Look for a lot of twoway trade, especially right around the time of the statement and then of course, at 8 30 eastern for the press conference. Because yesterday meanwhile mohammeded elerian flat out told us he doesnt think qe is going to work. Hes a very smart man and i think what he was saying was absolutely right. Theyve got a bigger structural problem in europe and i think the fact that we saw what the swiss did last week react the way the markets reacted with all that turmoil and volatility gives us a good example. There are a lot of people out there praying that the swiss economy goes into a recession this year because if it doesnt, guess what . Germany is probably next. And that is going to really cause a ripple effect. Lets see if indeed that is a problem. The flip side of that is there was a story that was floated around that there was going to be a billion euros or a trillion euros i should say and the market started taking that as bad news because they were worried maybe things were worse than expected. All of this, as rick said, will play out over the next couple days. Keith, ill get to you in a second. Also joining us we have kate warren from edwards jones. Good to see you. Are you waiting to make Investment Decisions until after the European Central Bank Announces what they plan to do especially if youre thinking about investing in europe right now . Absolutely not. I think the right move is to put money to work today. The European Central bank is trying to set expectations. Rick suggested traders say never enough but theyre trying to set expectations so theres not dispointment dispointment. The fact theyre taking more action combined with Lower Oil Prices which should be good news for Economic Growth, you want to take advantage of the strong dollar, put your money to work where it buys more and thats in europe. Keith, yesterday john calamos also speaking of flat out Disorderly Conduct declarations said were in a deflationary period. What weve seen from Central Banks just in the past call it week he had india, 25 basis points race cut. The swiss cut rates to negative 0. 75 along with abandoning the peg on the 15. You had a peru a surprise rate cut. Den narcotic with a surprise rate cut on the 19th and today canada with a surprise rate cut. Are people aware of whats happening with Central Banks try to combat deflation around the world and what that means for the g4 next . I think weve been hanging around in bernankes helicopter hangar. I think rick is right were going it see tremendous volatility around this because traders on one hand have been anticipating. On the other hand theyre very much looking to put positions to work and the Party Continues as long as theres free money. What i worry about is that this is absolutely the wrong message to be sending to the derivatives cowboys. Its a bet they cant lose. I think were going to see big wall street warm up. I think we will see individual investors go in with intelligent bys buys and there will be a lot of volatility for three or four day approximates. Rick, im surprised youre not a little more outspoken against this. I can imagine youre against this strategy by the European Central bank to do this buying especially when you consider that the fed did this under the duress of the financial crisis we went through. Yes, theyre in a slow economic environment in europe. Theyve got their problems with greece and so forth, but i dont think anybody would argue theyre in dire straits we were six years ago, yet theyre employing this same strategy. Do you think a precedent has been set, he asks naively, where other Central Banks will follow this course down the road every time they stub their toe economically . Oh, absolutely and its the dark side of this type of strategy, and lets be clear here. You know if you look at the type of economy we had before the crisis in europe and in the u. S. , the fact that weve had the types of recoveries weve had, better in the u. S. Than europe, really shouldnt be surprising, and im certainly not saying that in any large part its due to the medicine thats been applied. Its what normally happens when an event surprises the market. You go down to 6600 in the dow. Its going to bounce back. Thats the way these economies are, and ours is better and more resilient. The real issue is why are you applying salve when we dont have the type of wound that will be healed by salve. Kate warne, what do you make of all this policy and what should investors do here . What does this mean for the next 6 to 12 months for your investments . Certainly i think the European Central bank is taking action. Theyre doing the things they know to do. It may not be the right medicine but it also buys time, and time really heals a lot of things. Investors i think should be looking for Quality Companies and putting money to work. This is an environment where Economic Growth is improving in the u. S. Its weak in europe but if any of these policies whether its Central Bank Action or Lower Oil Prices can help thats actually a plus for investors putting money to work in Quality Companies. So id be buying stocks particularly ones with low dividends and the potential for dividend growth. Keith, do you agree that what the European Central bank is going to do could help us in the United States or does it matter . I think it should help us. I asked keith. Im sorry, kate. It was for keith. Thats okay. Im the lead singer and i dont have any vocals here. I do think that this is going to help. It does matter and it doesnt matter as much. I think rick is right absolutely spot on. Were the best looking horse in the glue factory here. Whether its right or not, whether the fed, the ecb, bank of japan, all these guys have their hands in the cookie jar right now. I think you have to focus on Quality Companies. The volatility will produce better buying opportunities. Im still looking to defense and medical tech. Anytime theres a pullback, history shows thats a great opportunity if you have the right company in mind. Jack how do you feel about energy here . First of all, i dont think were a horse in a glue factory. The bottom line is this energy is really whats going to drive this market over the course of the next year. We are going to see surprises out of earnings. Everybody is so worried about the bite that were going to see. Were going to be pleasantly surprised at the end of the year and not only us. Theres a revolution going on around the world. I just got back from india. What modi is doing in india is a miracle and Lower Energy Prices will only help that and those are our customers. So i have got a feeling this is going to be one of those years where just like last year we buy these dips especially in the beginning of the quarters, and we find this Market Making new alltime highs on a quarterly basis. Jack you just brought it up that word and were ten minutes into our show here. We havent even mentioned earnings. We have more earnings coming out later, keith fitzgerald. Are we underestimating the impact those earnings can have on our market and overestimating the impact that Monetary Policy can have right now . I think thats very much the case. Now, to the point, i think that the earnings have been set so artificially low as to be laughable so that beats are going to come very quickly and easily whether traders buy in that or not is thor question. But Going Forward i think well see a trillion dollars or more thats going to be a stimulus by virtue of this implicit gas tax credit by low fuel costs thats going to be right to the middle class pocket. President obama talked about it last night. He completely ignored the real issue, which is cash in the pocket works and i think thats going to hit the registers a quarter or two from now and thats where the surprises will start to come. Thats right. Well have a little more on where people are spending those savings coming up in a bit. For now, everybody, thank you very much. Thanks, guys. Good to see you this afternoon. And weve got about 50 minutes to go. The dow has turned negative but its been bouncing around all day. Its a familiar tune for us here so far this year. Well see what happens with plenty of time still left to go. The s p still positive by a couple points. The nasdaq just like one. Its like the weather in denver, you dont like it now, just wait a couple minutes. And look at netflix. The pros will tell us if todays gains are justify and if netflix is the network of the future. And to do ameritrades ceo gives us his reaction to the canadian rate cut. Thats coming up on the closing bell. Stay tuned. You just got a big bump in miles. So this is a great opportunity for an upgrade. Sound good . Great. Because youre not you youre a whole airline. And its not a ticket youre upgrading its your entire operations, from domestic to international. Which means you need help from a whole team of advisors. From workforce strategies to Tech Solutions and a thousand other things. So you call pwc. The right people to get the extraordinary done. Theres a difference when you trade with fidelity. One you wont find anywhere else. Onesecond trade execution. Guaranteed. Did you see it . In one second, he made a trade we looked for the best price and the trade went through. Do the other guys guarantee that . Didnt think so. Open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. So you take that snapshot right there, the dow up 13 and you think, oh quiet day. Man, it has been anything but. Weve had a 200point range on the dow again today, down 120 at one point, up 84. Now were up 13. There are the ten s p 500 sectors. The only negative today, Fred Tom Zach will be interested to know, are the financials. Everybody else has been positive. By the way, kelly evans, which average do you think hit an alltime high today . Im going to guess its a dow average. Oh, i was going to say is it canada . The transports. Utilities. Lower Interest Rates. Sectors that were winning last year continue to win this year. Courtney reagan is keeping a pulse on some of the biggest movers for us in this market right now. Hi, courtney. Were going to go to individual stocks. Lets start with United Health group. Hitting a record high after posting better than expected Fourth Quarter results benefiting from an increase in Profit Margins and a surge in premium revenue. The stock trading higher by more than 3 . Other Health Insurers moving higher like aetna, cigna humana. Netflix soaring after adding 4. 3 million streaming customers. We will have more on that Company Coming up. And tootsie roll trading higher on news the ceo has died. This is sparking speculation that the company could be courtney thank you. I confess i did not know tootsie rool was roll was a publicly traded company until now. Canadas central bank today cutting its key Interest Rate and specifically pointing to the fallout of the nations xhe fromeconomy from the drop in oil prices. We welcome back fred tomczyk from to dod ameritrade. Even you were surprised at the Canadian National bank cutting rates today. Yeah. I was surprised by it because it seemed to come out of the blue which were seeing out of a number of Central Banks this year. But as you think about it in canada the canadian economy is a tale of two parts of the country. Alberta, sus skach wan are oil and gas denominated, if you go into ontario, its more manufacturing. If the price of oil was coming down nothing you can do about that. I think it has to be thinking of a way to devalue the currency to increase the attractiveness of the canadian Manufacturing Sector exporting goods and services. It starts to get more into your business. A lot of reaction has been it will be good news ultimately and we can hope the housing hashthmarket will have a soft landing. When the u. S. Banks went through the housing and financial crisis, at the time canada said it was your problem, you were deregulation. You were cowboys, we came through it cleanly. Is there a risk we see more pressure on canadian financials . I think you are seeing more pressure. Td bank and royal bank were up today which is surprising when youre cutting Interest Rates unless youre trading off the dividend yield. But having said that i think the Canadian Housing market is a very different structure than the u. S. Housing market and so it is different, and it is has a lot more insurance to it and support. I think the challenge in the Canadian Market with housing is really the condo markets in toronto and vancouver, and thats the part everybody is watching. You were telling me this during the break. We have been doing this about the same amount of time. In that time the battle has been against inflation. You invest to try to keep up with the inflation rate. Is this what deflation feels like, what were going through now, and what does this do for the average investor . What should they be thinking about as they invest their money . I dont think were going through deflation just yet. I think deflation has certain characteristics. I dont think were seeing that right now. I think were seeing a lot of disinflation trends. The price of oil definitely brings down some inflation. I also think with whats going on with technology and all the disruption going on out of Silicon Valley now thats bringing down prices as well. I think we have a couple things countering whats going on in the economy that perhaps you dont see in a normal type of situation. Lets talk for a second about the quarter and the results that you have had, and missed street expectations, still up on the year. It would seem during a time of heightened volatility which has been somewhat more recent but even from the period during the quarterback you would experience more client activity. What happened . You know from our estimates and when we looked at bloomberg, were right on expectations but other people have different numbers. The only difference that i some of the analysts on the street had from us calculated trades per day, they estimated 455. We were 457. What happened was there was a mix shift because with all the changes in the price of oil, our mix shift shifted heavily to futures so we were about 6 of trades normally in futures. We were about 9 it was up 54 brs 54 yearoveryear. Thats the Lowest Commission trade of all of our various instruments. The number that got my attention was asset accumulation during the period. How much was it . Just under 19 billion. I was going to say 18plus. What are people doing with that money right now . Are they hoarding it or are they assuming some risk here . They are definitely going into the market. No matter what metric you look at at ameritrade whether its the Investor Movement index is relatively bullish, client cash as a percentage of assets net buying activity was over 13 billion in the quarter. Up 25 over last year. People are moving into u. S. Equities. So i have to ask the question then traditionally that would signal that were closer to a top than a bottom if the Retail Investor is starting to move into the market at this point. What do you think . Theyve been going into the market now for 20 months or so so and its been a healthy market. I think when you look around the world, its hard to say where to invest. If you had to pick a spot it would be u. S. Equities right now. You sound like jack vogel who said the same thing. Thank you so much for being here to explain the various impacts oil is having on your business and have you noticed any recent pickup or change in trend from the volatility weve had so far this year . Yeah. Trades per day month to date are up 487 so theyre even higher than they were last quarter. Last quarter that 457 is the second best trading quarter in our history. Wow. Interesting. Good to see you. Lots of volatility. Thank you. Good to see you again. Fred tomczyk. Ceo of td ameritrade. The dow is up only 31 points but its been a volatile day and we now wait not only for earnings but we have that European Central Bank Announcement for tomorrow morning. That really is the big number to watch for tomorrow. A Strong Performance today from the s p and netflix far and away the best performer on the inflex. The streaming giant posting strong earnings and eye popping expansion projections. That broke on this show right after yesterdays close. We have the professionals weighing in on whether netflix is the future of media and whether the stocks 300 gain over the past three years is justified. Well do a little stock drawl on Netflix Netflix coming up. everyone cheers glad you madrawl on netflix coming up. Brawl on netflix coming up. Thanks again my friends. For everything for all your help. Through all lifes milestones our trusted advisors are with you every step of the way. Congratulations thanks for helping me plan for my retirement. You should Come Celebrate with us. 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Edwin is skeptical about this. Make the case. You think it could continue. It has. We think the stock is at an inflection point, subscriber growth seems to be sustainable. But i think international is actually turning out to be the real story here. We upgraded to a buy today with a 12month target price at 450. We think that can be justified by, you know, a variety of factors, not just subscriber growth but in terms of accelerated content, spending in terms of the ability to be able to continue to roll out programming and continue to ramp up we think the profits. Ed meanwhile, the focus on netflix despite some metrics still remains subscriber growth. Is that the reason youre a little more cautious on where they go from here . I think netflix is a Great Company and theyve done a great job creating this market and getting consumers to sign up for streaming television but theyre forecasting this current quarters net additions will slow down a little bit, like 1. 8 million versus 2. 25 million the same period. U. S. Subscribers are definitely slowing down and, you know, the newer subscribers were getting are from lower income families which is a great market to tap into but that just means these customers are going to face choices at some point down the line when other entrants come in, hbo comes in dish will come out with their own. There will be competition for those customers. International growth is great. I agree with tuna on that point absolutely, but rights for international, you know, content, its tricky. Its always up in the air. Different rules, different places. That can be a factor. That can be sort of a mitigating factor to their growth. Hes given you a lot to comment on. What about competition and what about the complexity of rights around the world . Well i have to say that our base case assumes that in the u. S. Netflix will actually cede some market share, however its not difficult to project out and he can trap late International Growth which i mentioned earlier. We expect actually in the next four to five years for International Subscribers to kind of approach or even outpace, you know, the u. S. Subscriber growth. They have talked about significantly accelerating the number of countries there are from 50 to 200. So this is a company that has articulated a kind of a globalization theme which i think is going to increasingly play into the investment thesis. On the u. S. Side we think the s curve, that market of 60 to 90 million is still within target just by the competition. In terms of the rights, you know, we think the company has done a pretty good job to start those rights. Theyve actually provided for the first time a content schedule showing how thats exactly i was going to bring that up, ed because even though you mentioned the competition and serve going to be flooding the zone i wonder if it helps netflix because were changing our viewing habits in ways they become one the most successful cable channels to launch of up a time. The way their february debut of program something making the rounds on social media is pretty impressive. Its definitely helping to drive subscriptions. Its something that hbo figured out a few decades ago. You need to get original programs to get people to sign up and stay on. Amazon is in the same gain. Theyre producing their own originals and getting into film production. They can get the films in their online window sooner and amazon has a lot of money to spend and theyre willing to spend it. That kind of competition will be a factor. I agree, International Growth is going to be big but that just means theyre going to be subject to, you know currency fluctuations and all that kind of stuff. Its not a full rosy bright spot for them. I think theyve done a great job as i said in creating the space and forging the market but that just means everyone else is going to tagalong now. Are we talking about a disagreement about time frame as well, ed . I hear tuna talking about four to five years down the road the kind of growth they are expecting here. Are you more worried about in the interim what headwinds they may face probably nor in the immediate term. If you were to buy it for fiveyear growth would you be willing i think a fiveyear growth button is a great thing to look at. Im looking a year or two years out and i think theres going to be stiff competition coming in in the next year or two and even internationally, whether its amazon or another native player theyre going to tap into that market. Pay television abroad whether its europe or latin america or asia is still a relatively new idea. Its easier to try to grab those customers through a streaming service because, you know, its not there isnt sort of already an established player in a lot of places. So, yes, it just means other players probably want to jump into that market. So you are looking, tuna five years down the road. Would you acknowledge though there may be some stumbles in the meantime some difficulties that they may face for the various reasons that ed is pointing out . Bill actually our 12month target price over the next 12 months and we know that netflix is always going to be a bumpy ride. If youre an investor in the stock, you expect that to be the case, but what were saying is that we think the company has demonstrated the ability to be able to kind of even out all of these near term risk factors which we still rate as relatively high. Keep in mind theres also potential tailwinds on the regulatory side. These are all things. Thats a definite factor. One of the other things at least from a technical standpoint netflix and other Online Video Services or bandwidth intensive services, you know, they pay the broadband providers what we call interconnection fees. Basically the ability to park their servers closer to the Service Provider so the streaming is more efficient. Those fees are relatively nominal right now but they could go up, especially since its the cable providers paying for all the infrastructure to deliver the service. If those fees go up it could amount to a reverse carriage fee if you think about it. Cable companies are just kind of transforming themselves more in broadband providers and theyre going to look to get as much margin as they can out of it. Its pretty complicated. Its more than just how popular house of cards may be down the road. Thats for sure. Thank you, both for a constructive conversation on netflix. With half an hour to go into the close keeping a close eye on the indexes still in positive territory. Newfield also having a strong day. The Energy Sector has been the outperformer of the day. When we come back our weekly beat the street segment. We talk to a top bond fund manager this time around get his take on the hot seat and tell us what he would do to crush his benchmark over the past year and where he thinks its going down the road. And then later American Express and ebay have their earnings on deck. Well tell what you numbers to watch out for today. You will want to keep it here because we know what happens with these two names is going to impact tomorrows trading. Stay tuned. If youre running a business legalzoom has your back. Over the last 10 years weve helped over one million Business Owners get started. Visit us today for legal help you can count on to start and run your business. Legalzoom. Legal help is here. Alright, so this tylenol arthritis lasts 8 hours, but aleve can last 12 hours. And aleve is proven to work better on pain than tylenol arthritis. So why am i still thinking about this . How are you . Aleve, proven better on pain. Plus signs across the board here today. The dow has had a 200point range again today. Weve had one every single trading session in 2015. I still find that that is pretty amazing. It tells you there are a lot of opportunities to be held regardless of what we do on the close each day. It shows the conviction on both sides, the buy side and sell side is growing. In other words, nobody knows. And we wait for the European Central bank tomorrow. The yield on the 10year at 1. 86. Unbelievable. And we very calmly point out that the yield on the 30year bond as if that were totally normal. Is well below. We are zeroing in on bonds. The invesco corps plus bond fund is up over 7 versus the barclays agg which gained a mere half a percent. Joining us is Michael Hyman. Thank you for joining us. Happy new year. Thank you for having me. I cant think of how many years its been that people have been talking about the end of the great bull market for bonds, that we would see a rise in rates. But you have still been betting, especially in the treasury market, that yields would continue lower. Why . I think when we saw last year, that continued to be the big consensus trade that yields were going to go continually higher. We felt there were a lot of structural pressures in the market that would continue to keep yields low, including the disinflation environment in europe. The really strong technical bid for u. S. Treasuries as well as just the aging populations tend to be all disinflationary, and we reallyviewed u. S. Rates would not be impact the by u. S. Economic performance but by what was going on globally. I was looking at whats in your fund and it looks like the biggest chunk is Mortgage Backed security Investment Grade bonds, and then treasuries high yield, some you have a lot of stuff in here. This means its a multilayered bet, isnt it . We run a very diverseifyied portfolio. I think specifically if you look at some of the mortgage securities, a large percentage of those are not agency mortgages. One of the big things we like is being focused on u. S. Centric risk opportunities and so if you look particularly at the nonagency mortgage sector thats very levered to the u. S. Consumer, low Interest Rates and a decrease in unemployment. So we like nonagency mortgages and try to keep a lot of credit bets as well focused to companies that have u. S. Exposure. What about european exposure though . Would you look at them . Are you not allowed or are you just avoiding it because of whats going on over there . We do like european exposure particularly in the banks which we feel are a couple years behind the u. S. Cycle. If you looked at some of the performance of u. S. Financials obviously its been stellar over the past couple years. We certainly do like the big banks that are deleveraging in europe, particularly down in the cap structure in that space. Now, michael, i am just looking here again. Your weighted average, effective maturity, 7. 5 years, effective duration, 5. 3. If the 10year moves up 1 in other words if we move from 1. 8 to 2. 8 on the 10year, what does that do to the value of your fund . The fund has a fiveyear duration. If we get a 100 basis point move 100 basis points, 1 percentage points. The value of the fund would drop 5 . 5 . And so is that something you have to worry about . Is it a small probability outcome or are you effectively betting the rates stay low or even move lower . We manage versus our benchmark which has a 5. 2year duration. We have duration exposure within the fund. We can modulate that up to a couple years to reduce the impact and we certainly will do that if we feel its prudent and we havent and thats been a very good decision over the last couple years. I think one of the things thats important to keep in mind as well is in owning and holding a bond fund is diversification that it provides you versus other holdings that you have in your portfolio. And one of the best hedges to underperformance in equities is essentially duration. And so if you look at even the way the markets have performed this year, our fund is up while equities are down during the course of the year and so if investors have a fear for downside volatility a high quality fund that owns currently 80 to 85 of Investment Grade securities will proi hadvide a good insulation to volatility. On the high yield corporates there will be people to look for a better return on their money. How much risk are you willing to take on to get that yield . We can hold up to 20 high yield within the fund. We think that will be one of the opportunities for 2015 particularly in high yield exposure thats not levered to energy. So we like names like royal car rain ian ribbian, constellation. Its the invesco Investment Grade Portfolio Management fund. We have Michael Hyman joining us today. Talking about where to invest for income right now. Thanks, michael. Appreciate it. Thank you. You bet. The corps plus bond fund. Thats the name of the fund. Got that. Heading toward the close. A gain of 45 points on the industrial average. Theyre waiting for earnings. Theyre waiting for the European Central bank. Look, netflix earnings mattered last night. A lot of ramifications from that set of results. Well hear frome bay and American Express right after the bell. Also Raymond James ceo speaking with us exclusively coming up. Find out if he think the European Central banks quantitative easing plan will send stocks no noo a tailspin if it doesnt let up or give them a giant boost. When we come back we will preview the key after hours earnings. We have American Express and ebay headlining the list. Stay tuned. The lightest or nothing. The smartest or nothing. The quietest or nothing. The sleekest. Sexiest. Baddest. Safest,. Tightest,. Quickest. Harshest. Or nothing. At mercedesbenz, we do things one way or we dont do them at all. Introducing the allnew cclass. See your authorized mercedesbenz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedesbenz financial services. Welcome back. American express earnings are due out in a few minutes. Mary thompson is keeping an eye on what investors should be expecting. Investors will be focused on two key things. First, how does the firm plan to accelerate Revenue Growth to hit longterm target of 8 growth and second how will it spend the 700 million gain its booking from the sell of its stake of concurran. Revenue is seen deklainclineing in the year ago quarter. With the stock down over the last year, investors want to know if strong holiday online sales pumped up the firms business in the Fourth Quarter and if Net Interest Income got a lift from higher loan balances. Also want to know if more expense cuts are coming as they look to drive bottom line growth given sluggish results on the top line. Bill, back to you. All right, mary, thank you very much. The other report were looking forward to is ebay. They will be reporting about the same time after the top of the hour. Analysts are looking for 89 cents in terms of profitability on revenue of 4. 9 billion. Its been a volatile year. This is a oneyear chart of ebay. They were this is an alltime high early last year and then its been sideways since that time and today its down 3 4 of a percent at 53. 26 and for the year ebay is down 1. 6 . So well keep an eye on that and for American Express, two different industries, see how theyre doing going into the next quarter here. Meantime, we have 13 minutes left in the trading session. The dow at this hour is up 47 points. Weve got the s p up 10 the nasdaq up 12. The utilities average meanwhile benefits from those lower Interest Rates sitting at an alltime even as oil as continued lower. We have the heat map for the s p 500 index. A little more red than green so far in todays session. Well be back with todays closing bell after this. I dont want to think about the alternative. I dont even know how to answer that. I mean, no one knows how long their money is going to last. I try not to worry but you worry. What happens when your paychecks stop . Because everyone has retirement questions. Ameriprise created the exclusive confident retirement approach. To get the real answers you need. Start building your confident retirement today. You just got a big bump in miles. So this is a great opportunity for an upgrade. Sound good . Great. Because youre not you youre a whole airline. And its not a ticket youre upgrading its your entire operations, from domestic to international. Which means you need help from a whole team of advisors. From workforce strategies to Tech Solutions and a thousand other things. So you call pwc. The right people to get the extraordinary done. Alright, so this tylenol arthritis lasts 8 hours, but aleve can last 12 hours. And aleve is proven to work better on pain than tylenol arthritis. So why am i still thinking about this . How are you . Aleve, proven better on pain. Ten minutes. The dow up 42 points. The s p is up 10 the nasdaq is up 12 but it masks continued volatility in this market. Earlier in the session, we keep pointing this out because it just astounds us the dow had a 20point trading range, and we have had a 200point trading range on the dow every trading day this year so far. Ja lets get more from David Sherman and Matt Cheslock on the floor. David, right before we get into the point about volatility as well, are you a credit guy . Im primarily a credit guy. Here is why i ask. I cannot believe the amount of money still going into energy. In our mutual funds we had less than 2 exposure coming into the market in energy because its speculative financing like the telecom was in 02. I like to know if im going to lend somebody money, i will get paid back. We have avoided it. What im concerned about is people havent noticed leveraged loans, 17 exposure 15 exposure in energy. If these prices stay down, i dont care if youre the top of the capital structure, if you produce a barrel of oil and you lose money, if isnt it isnt good even at the top. Matt cheslock, you were suffering through the lack of volatility and now its back in a big way. What does it say to you to have this kind of volatility we havent seen this kind of volatility since november of 11. So a little over three, four years here in this trade. What do you make of it . Its a great trading environment for onfloor traders. We relish these big moves on not a lot of news either. So its a headline risk is what youre going for. So if youre willing to wait it out and maybe buy a dip and hold it for a little while, you can make some real money. The market has tended to reverse. Weve been in a great range on the dow, 17,200 to 18,000. If youre willing to buy 17,200 and hold it through some pain youre seeing some reward. Are you worries the fall out boys are ringing the bell. I wouldnt know who the fall out boys are. My kids may. Its interesting you brought up volatility. If you hold it out you make money. In 2002 when telecom was Venture Capital finance and the bottom fell out 2003 in high yield was up 28 . So there could be a real opportunity as energy finally falls out to then get long high yield at some point. Do you like energy . Are you willing to that was the point. I would like to bring up as well. This could be more than a dead cat bounce in energy. Theres some real value. Some names really moving. If opec gets on board, some of the names will have good gains going into the first couple months. Tomorrow the European Central bank makes the big announcement. We have already heard this report theyre going to announce 58 billion a month theyre going to buy. Their version of quantitative easing. Is that enough to help . What do you think thats going to do . I have no idea if its going to help or not. Theres all kinds of problems in europe and their quantitative easing situation is different than what we have here. Theyre not cohesive. I do know this. If im a Financial Institution or an individual trying to earn yield to make money, im going with the currency going down and lower yields. I want to move that money over to u. S. Corporate bonds, get a higher yield, a stronger dollar or high paying difficult department stocks in the states. It will support it because it means our companies will be able to borrow more and pay out more dividends. We have a fund thats shorting Investment Grade debt because companies are doing that. Theyre borrowing money and paying dividends, theyre buying back stock, pursuing acquisitions. If they dont the activists of last year are you already shorting that . This could take years to catch up. Were short at t bonds. Were short gap bonds. Activists will come in. Shareholders will get bigger dividends if you dividends. If you lend money, i dont want my money going to shareholders. Well come back with the closing countdown and see how we do as we get ready for a lot of things still to come. A lot more activity. After the bell we get earnings from ebay and American Express. And Raymond James will be here. Well get his view from washington to europe. We may even get another surprise rate cut overnight. Like i said probably half a dozen in just the past week. Youre watching cnbc first in business word wilde. The Conference Call. The ultimate arena for business. Hour after hour of diving deep, touching base, and putting ducks in rows. The only problem with Conference Calls eventually they have to end. Unless you have the comcast business voiceedge mobile app. It lets you switch seamlessly from your desk phone to your mobile with no interruptions. Ive never felt so alive. Get the future of phone and the phones are free. Comcast business. Built for business. Hi. Pete and jon najarian here in new york city outside of the nasdaq, where we bring you live daily market updates. And today, we have a very special free gift for you. 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In one second, he made a trade we looked for the best price and the trade went through. Do the other guys guarantee that . Didnt think so. Open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. About 2 30 left. Let me show you this weve talked about it but let me show you the chart. This is the dow today, first thing this morning 120point decline for the industrial average, and this is during the time when europe is still open. So theoretically its the european traders that are contributing to this. Decline of 120, then suddenly a gain of 84 points. So there we are, a 200point range for the dow today. Let me show you a chart now for the dow for yeartodate, since january 1st. Look at the volatility. Weve had a 200point range on the dow every single trading day this year so far. I mean thats 14 trading days including today that weve had 200point trading day. You have to go back to november of 11 to see that volatility again. Well see what we get tomorrow especially with that announcement coming from the European Central bank. We also have earnings coming out after the bell. We mentioned them earlier, American Express and ebay. American express is up a half a percent, ebay is down a quarterback percent. The drama builds bob. What is the European Central bank going to say . We got that leak that says it will be 58 billion a month they will be buying. Well see tomorrow morning and what the market does with it. The important thing is its within the range of what they were expecting. 500 billion euros or 40 million a month would be the minimum. Maybe thats enough. The market acted like they were mildly happy about it. First it went up and down then and ult maimately germany ended at a historic high. The bottom line is this were getting some stability not just in europe but in oil. Were getting some stability in bonds at least the last couple days. Gold is coming back. And also the dollar is starting to look a little tired at this point. If we get a little stability in those areas, when those things get weird, the market gets weird. Stability and you see stability in the stock market. Thank you bob. See you a little later. Well wait for earnings to come out. In the meantime the members of the band fallout boy are ringing the closing bell. We have the numbers of motley crue and alice cooper himself coming your way. Before then lets get to earnings. See you tomorrow kel. Thank you, bill. Welcome to the closing bell. Im kelly evans and here is how were finishing another tumultuous session. Another day of 200point moves. Were finishing with the dow moving 41. The nasdaq up half a percent or nine points bolstered as we mentioned by netflix. Strong performance there. The nasdaq up a quarter of a percent. 12 points for its part. Lets get to it as we wait for some key earnings with todays panel. Cnbc contributor jimmy is here. Home with Kayla Tausche and cnbc contributor jon najarian. We have to talk about the patriots. Yes. First for more on todays Market Action its brian kelly. Steve grasso is joining us shortly off the floor. I dont know where to start. Nobody has talked about the state of the union. I know were supposed to start with markets a little bit. Is there an impact there were overlooking do you think . Listen the president had a lot to say, a lot to say about cutting taxes, especially a lot to say about raising taxes on investors. I dont think youre seeing a Market Reaction because nobody believes its going to happen. Nobody believes they will take up the capital gains. So i guess as to the lack of action, pro market. Are they doing keystone . Is that going to happen . I dont think thats going to happen either. Really . I dont think they may pass it. I think obama is in no mood to go for anything like that. Veto was the theme. I bring it up too, because you look at whats happened in energy and i wonder what were fighting over. Is it part of the infrastructure play . Part of this idea we need to now is the time given the low Interest Rates to really invest in frsktinfrastructure from pipelines to bridges and roads and how are we going to fund it . You have to wonder too, at what point well get real numbers about the effects of Lower Oil Prices if it is not a temporary phenomenon, if we get layoffs, if we get restructurings, if we get some pullback in capital expenditures. At what point would it potentially push washington and push the administration to consider an element of job creation in keystone to offset maybe what were seeing elsewhere. Exactly. Even if its just a few jobs the idea is you absorb some of the people who are unemployed from this region. Dr. J, how are you playing energy . Unfortunately, im sort of loaded in energy right now, so im certainly hoping that did you buy an oil tanker . No but i bought transocean rig. I bought western refining, wnr. Some had very nice upside moves today but the yeartodate numbers dont look so good. I take it you didnt get in today. No. This for that cnbc playbook playoff we do, i did it for that. Overall i do like the space and i do think many of these names are severely oversold. However, am i claiming that were at the bottom . Not necessarily, although i agree with you. Not about keystone because i dont know that tar sands, that we really need to create something to ship thats not going to be mined very actively anymore but instead the Natural Gas Pipelines out of the shale plays, instead of flaring it off, create a bunch of jobs to bring those natural gas fields into play for our country and thats huge. And capture that. The reason i bring it up as well is oil seems to be the protagonist protagonist, if you will, in all of these moves that global Central Banks are making. Canada today is the latest but it comes off a week where we have seen moves by canada peru denmark, the swiss move obviously, even going back to india which got very little attention at the time. Are we going to expect more of this . I think you can expect more from every central bank in the world. Everybody is basically saying please dont hold our currency. Please go and hold Something Else and right now it looks like the u. S. Dollar is probably going to be it. If you get a stronger dollar and you continue to have this supply in oil, you will get much Lower Oil Prices. My guess is were in some kind of a range at this point in time. Lets call it 70 on the high side, although those looking pretty high at this point. 40 on the low side. You can turn those rigs on pretty quick but if you get a very strong dollar theres no reason why oil couldnt go to 30 a barrel and if you guys are talking about Infrastructure Projects and whether or not the congress would fund it i think it would take 5 oil. You have to have a massive crisis to get anything done in washington, d. C. 5 oil. Anyone want to go out on a limb on that one . Not today. Were getting earnings coming through from American Express. You can see theyre a slight beat it looks like on the bottom line, a bigger beat on the top line. Steve grasso is joining us off the floor here as well. How about that action in netflix today . Is this going to continue to be a story about individual stocks powering this market forward . Yeah i mean every market is the same way, right . So i would guess that you start to see people try to take a little bit off the table because people are worried about valuations across the board on the macro market so they start selling stocks they think are a little bit bloated in valuation. Now, hang on one second. Lets get the details on this report. Well come right back to you in a moment. American express results. It looks like American Express beat results by a penny, 1. 39. Analysts were looking for 1. 38. The revenue number looks like a blowout at first glance. The company saying it reflects the gain of 719 million, 435 million after tax of that stake of its sale in concur which was an Online Travel agency. The company said that card member spending increased by 6 during the quarter and the better than expected results were helped not only by the gain but an increase in card member spending and higher Net Interest Income. Just a quote from the ceo, solid results reflected the underlying themes that have characterized our performance throughout 2014, higher card member spending increased loan balances tight control of operating expenses and a substantial return of capital to shareholders. Not a bad return on equity either. Steve grasso going back to you, your reaction on American Express. The big thing for them is their mobile numbers because thats where you see the real growth. They partnered up theyre doing jvs with uber or whether its apple pay. I think you will see that, thats the number to look at. Can they make the transition into mobile effectively when we see these numbers yearoveryear up 30 on traffic and mobile from thanksgiving to cyber monday and then in sales up 22 . Whats going to be the share of American Express they pull there. On a technical basis though they dont look as good as mastercard or visa. They dont look as good as the other players in the space but it seems like if they could start ramping up where the yucker generation is spending American Express has always been an older person spending on that card. If they could start getting into business with the likes of apple and uber i think thats a great thing they could do for their brand. An older but more creditworthy customer than some of the other networks because millennials are still in a creditbuilding phase. Not necessarily the sterling borrower that American Express would see borrowing. 8 increase in spending by card members. When you think about what the banks saw in loan growth and in some of their spending portfolios, were not seeing a gain like that. So this is really a sign of Consumer Confidence that they are spending more on their credit cards. They are doing more transactions that potentially some of the savings that they might be getting from lower gas prices could be helping the Credit Card Companies as we have suggested for the last few weeks. Brian, was that you trying to get in there . I would just say one with American Express they tend to have a much more affluent customer base, so its good news for the affluent consumer out there. But in terms of this earnings season, the key is the Conference Calls for all of these. Dont get too excited off this first pop because weve seen some big moves when the Conference Call comes on. Although you would admit that 8 growth number, thats a robust number. Thats a good number, absolutely. Thats one dr. J, i guess people will have to decide if they think its sustainable. It would be great if it was a sign we might see double digit growth Going Forward. Ja joo ja. That revenue number stands out. The roe was better but the revenue number is what people will sort of be buying into tomorrow if this after hours small pop turns into a bigger pop tomorrow. Jimmy, it goes back to the idea is there actually credit expansion happening in this economy and if so is it just in certain pockets and what do you make of the thats what weve been looking for. Weve had a recovery. Were looking for every sign we can find the broadening hopefully the oil prices would help that broadening by increasing real incomes. I expect it will. I certainly expect this will be the best year overall and some broad prosperity since before the great recession. This is another sign of somewhat good news. Was the president right to strike it was a little bit of a victory lap. Didnt it come off that way or was it just me . Hes saying the badtimes are over. Weve moved beyond the not so great recovery and now i will do all the things maybe i would have loved to have done in twine had i not had a deal with the great recession. So sort of now the real obama term finally begins here in 2015. And hes got a terrible record of getting through anything that any of his initiatives. Hes one of the worst president s as far as getting through his initiatives and i dont think its going to be any easier when hes giving up control of congress on the other side kelly. Other than a massive reorganization of health care and the Financial Sector hes got nothing done. That was when we had democratic control though as well. It was a big difference from what hes looking at Going Forward. Absolutely, guys. Thank you. Well leave it right there for the time being. Steve grasso thanks for joining us. Brian kelly. Much more coming up on fast money at 5 00. The latest from ebays earnings Conference Call thats supposed to start right around then. Stay tuned for all of that. Coming up, jamie dimon making the case for a big stimulus plan from europes central bank. I think mario draghi has done a great job and i hope it works. I think they should probably do something. Jeff cox isnt so convinced. He doesnt think it will work and hell explain why next. And the National Average for gasoline falling to just about 2 a gallon. So where exactly are americans spending the extra cash . Now weve got some numbers, and you will, too, if you stick around to find out. Opportunities arent always obvious. Sometimes they just drop in. Cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach Global Markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. Have you heard of the new dialing procedure for for the 415 and 628 area codes . No what is it . Starting february 21, 2015 if you have a 415 or 628 number youll need to dial. 1 plus the area code plus the phone number for all calls. Okay, but what if i have a 415 number, and im calling a 415 number . Youll still need to dial. 1 plus the area code plus the phone number. So when in doubt, dial it out welcome back. We begin with breaking news on kinder morgan. So while the company is also releasing earnings, thats not the headline. Kinder morgan agreeing to buy highland partners for 3 billion, including debt from harold ham. Highland partners is a crude Oil Gathering and transportation pipeline found largely in serving the backkken region. Activity is picking up. Courtney, thank you. The European Central bank is expected to launch a massive stimulus as early as tomorrow. Jeff cox is skeptical it will do any good. Why do you say that, jeff . Its the old pushing on a string story. Do you remember on jaws when the slich says youre going to need a bigger boat . The same advice could apply to mario draghi who may need to go bigger and longer on his plans for quantitative easing. Now, Market Expectations are for about a half a trillion euros in quantitative easing. Reporting i have done on this indicates that the market may clamor for even more. One quick example came today. We saw when the headlines moved about the probable size ofq e qe. On further review garden variety qe will not make that much of a difference in the financial markets. The stakes are huge tomorrow for mr. Draghi. The eurozone is on the cusp of deflation. Market volatility is on the rise. So with all that in mind its very likely the ec b president is going to have to double down on his whatever it takes pledge. Well that would be interesting as well if what it takes isnt taking. Stay right there, jeff. More with Dennis Gartman joining the conversation now, publisher of the gartman letter. Dennis, great to have you here. I see from your note you think whatever happens tomorrow, investors will ultimately be disappointed so you agree with jeff . I do. As in so many cases in life size counts and were going to end up seeing mr. Draghi will not be able to do what the market really wants him to do. He needs to get the Balance Sheet of the ecb back to 3 trillion where it was several years ago. The problem that he has is that he doesnt have the ammunition or he doesnt have the capability to get it there. He doesnt have the Debt Securities the broad federal Debt Securities that we have here in the United States or which the bank of japan has or which the bank of china has. He has 19 different treasury securities from which to buy. That makes his life very difficult. He would like to get it done. Size counts size matters, but im not sure he can get the size accomplished. And so it will probably be a bit of a disappointment but at least lets say hell give it a good college try. I just wonder looking at the reporting from the journal citing this 50 billion a month thats exactly the kind of openended action that the bulls are going to want. Theyre going to say it gives them flexibility, we can hit a 1 trillion or 2 trillion or more figure over time dennis. From that point of view from simply the market point of view isnt it too soon to tell . Well first of all, lets give him credit for being able to accomplish anything. This is a very contentious group of people, of countries, that he has to try to get together. The germans oge arebviously are not going to be happy at all. There will be some disappointment but i applaud him for getting what he will get done done. That will help the european economy, no ifs, ands or buts about it. You are likely to get a small bounce any bounce that you get in the euro predicated upon disappointment in tomorrows commentary, tomorrows action any rally you get in the euro is to be sold into. I wonder if anything if the euro was rally on disappointment. Hang on. Pause the conversation for a moment because ebays Quarterly Results are hitting the tape. Hi josh. Kelly, ebay just reporting 90 cents here on 4. 92 billion. The street was looking for 89 cents on 4. 93 billion. Just kelly, looking through the divisions, marketplace 2. 3 billion. Payments total revenue, 2. 2 billion. Looking ahead at q1 ebay saying look for revenues the full year was above estimates. This Conference Call starts at 5 00 p. M. Well be on the call and bring you head linelines as they come. The guidance stinks just like josh said. Hes spot on. The guidance is terrible out of ebay. First quarter guide sense probably good for multipercent selloff in the after hours unless they have Something Else positive on the Conference Call kel. Theyre doing what a lot of folks are doing right now which is theyre giving a weak guide for the first for the upcoming quarter but keeping the full year in place hoping that things really start kicking in. Thats not a theme i like to hear. No. And i think theyre going to be punished for it like many of these other stocks are punished. Its a very small negative guide by ffi v and that stock is down almost 17. In the afterhours. So ebay offering a negative guide like this is not good. You know there was some speculation that potentially the company could give weak guidance but because its splitting off pay pal, because it has that to look to that perhaps thats really what its focused on and that would give the company a little bit of cover in the next couple quarters because thats something that would potentially provide a windfall or provide more focus in the near term but, gosh to have outlook like they have down by a dime for next its not good. Maybe its one of those tricks, jimmy, you decide its not going to be a good number so we might as well make it a real bad one. Why they didnt want to follow suit for the rest of the year is another question. Get the bad news out and everything after that seems like sunshine. We already have the bad news behind us. Im trying to do my part for ebay. Kayla did the best part. One active consumer at a time. Kayla brings up the good point which is with the spinoff pending it will not be hurt as badly as a miss of this sort and the weak guidance would have hurt them otherwise because some people will still be betting that the split up and the pay pal unit splitting off will be able to hold a bottom of the stock. What i meant is i was ordering books on ebay but 2 here and 3 there really arent moving the needle. How many people are using ebay like me anymore in the sense of trying to find a unique item from a while back i think most people are probably using amazon. I think its pretty unique to you. I have already cleared out all my old comic books. The inventory is already out there. All right. Keep an eye on ebay moving around again after hours on that weak guidance. We will send it out to Courtney Reagan. Shares of tmobile and sprint spiking into the close. The blog site the information saying google may become a wireless carry and use both to power the service, tmobile and sprint. If we can take a look and see on the board although we may not have it. It looks like tmobile was up about 2 . Back to you. All right. Thank you very much courtney. A lot of big moves after hours. And meanwhile, against all of this gasoline prices keep plunging, and those savings are fueling some spending by consumers. You might be surprised at how exactly americans are spending. Were going to talk about that next. We heard a lot about middle class tax cuts during the state of the union last night. Why didnt president obama make a real pitch for Corporate Tax reform reform . That question going around wall street today. Well talk about some possible reasons why coming up on the closing bell. Aflac and a gentle wavelike motion. Ahhhahhhhhh. Liberate your spine. Ahhhahhhhhh. Aflac and reach, toes blossoming. Not that great at yoga. Yeah, but when i slipped a disk he paid my claim in just four days. Ahh four days . Yep. See why speed matters, at aflac. Com. You just got a big bump in miles. So this is a great opportunity for an upgrade. Sound good . Great. Because youre not you youre a whole airline. And its not a ticket youre upgrading its your entire operations, from domestic to international. Which means you need help from a whole team of advisors. From workforce strategies to Tech Solutions and a thousand other things. So you call pwc. The right people to get the extraordinary done. Welcome back. Stocks are moving after hours, ebay included. We have more with josh lipton. Kelly, some more news here from ebay in this release. One, theyre talking about the First Quarter. Ebay saying they plan to reduce their workforce globally by about 2,400 positions. Thats 7 of total workforce. Thats across marketplaces, pay pal, and ebay enterprise. Talking about ebay enterprise they also say theyre going to be exploring Strategic Options for ebay enterprise. They say its become clear that it has limited synergies either business in a separation would allow both to focus exclusively on their core markets. Another bit of news the company says it has announced a standstill agreement with investor carl icahn, the companys largest active shareholder. In addition to certain Corporate Governance provisions ebay saying after the spinoff the agreement appoints icahn check executive to its board. We should mention shares stemming some losses on that additional news. Well send it out to courty reagan for more. Were not done yet. Check out f5 networks. The stock moving lower after the Company Posted mixed First Quarter results, beating earnings but missing on revenue. It gave weak guidance. The stock currently trading down almost 13 . A different story for sandisk. Posted better than expected Fourth Quarter results. And announced a 2 million stock buyback. Thank you for now. Plunging gas prices are padding consumer wallets but where are they spending the extra money. Cnbc. Coms editoratlarge eric chemmy found out and joins us now. Everybody think that is just because people save money on gas, theyre immediately going to rush into stores and start spending all this money or the other theory is theyre going to save it its going into their pocket and its like a tax cut. We actually according to this exclusive data we got, they can track peoples banking cards and krrds credit cards, we saw neither of those things happen. The second hypothesis they would save the money, thats not true. They saved 18 a month on gas prices. They spent 45 more on Everything Else so their total spending went up by 27 from 2013 to 2014 and most of that money was spent on ecommerce sites and fast food. But not ebay. Its a multiplier effect. Exactly. People feel better youre drooling. They feel better about gasoline so beyond the gasoline prices they will spend more. First off, they bought more gas. They went from 31 gallons a month to 33 gallons a month. Then they felt so good yeah they wasted twice as much of their savings. Feeling better about america. Not to mention wages contracted in detioncember. Exactly. And we talked about looking at Health Care Premiums went down a little bit. To the background here as well, so weve talked with some of the retailers and the overall shopping data for the Holiday Season was great but not really great. Were saying wait a minute where is some of this extra money really going, and so i was asking about is it Health Care Premiums, mobile phone plans, is it people paying down debt . What did you find . Its not so much Health Care Premiums but more about mobile phones going up about 3 . Its paying off debt. Thats up a couple percent, but those things but its not Health Care Premiums . Health care premiums actually went down a little bit. About 4 a month on average. But those things you dont buy on your credit card. Theres a lot of inertia. You dont have a daily decision to decide do i go to mcdonalds and do i get that extra big mac. Its the daily decision choices that go up. Love it. Eric, thank you for being here. Much more information on cnbc. Com. Eric chemi. Appreciate it. More breaking news and more job cuts coming from American Express. Thats right, kelly. American express spokesperson telling cnbc the Company Plans to cut 4,000 jobs this year. Its a gross number. Theyre going to be hiring selectively in some areas. Again, American Express keeping a tight control on expenses and cutting 4,000 jobs. Again, this will happen over the course of the year. The Conference Call starts at 5 00 today. Were going to have probably hear some Additional Details on these job cuts but this comes after American Express came out with earnings a penny ahead of estimates. It comes after ebay has reported a similar size in terms of cutting jobs. President obama taking aim at companies keeping profits overseas during last nights state of the union address. Lets close loopholes so we stop Rewarding Companies that keep profits abroad and reward those that invest here in america. But my next guest says the president missed a huge opportunity to champion Corporate Tax reform and that could bring all the money home to spur job growth and wage growth. Well talk about that. And here is something to feel good about. Rockers motley crue are going to be here to announce their last ever show. And did you know by the way, apple cofounder steve woz ni yak played a big role in their career. Youll hear more about that and much more coming up on the closing bell. And here is something to feel closing bell. Welcome back. A lot was addressed in the state 69 union last night but not Corporate Tax reform. Not one word about it despite a drum beat in the halls of congress and wall street to do something to bring massive amounts of money back to the u. S. Republican strategist sara faggan calls it a missed opportunity and she joins us now. This isnt something the president is going to get up there and stand for or should it have been. It should have been. It was a huge missed opportunity and quite anticlimactic in the washington area. The president and his aides have been talking about this with leaders in congress for weeks. So everyone was expecting him to take this step and call for broadening the base but also potentially lowering the rates. Whats particularly odd about this kelly, is that his treasury secretary, jack lew, came out today and talked about many of the things that i just mentioned. Thats what i was yeah. Sorry, sara, i was going to say to jimmy who is here with us as well, is it because he wanted to designate this im sorry deg gate delegate this or should we have got an message about it . Right. People in the Administration Believe we should have Corporate Tax reform but what was last night . Last noutight was a performance. It was about obama talking about the middle class and to most middle class people they dont get it why corporations which have record profits and the dow is up why do corporations how does that help me . I think lower Corporate Taxes helps workers but this was about the middle class. Democratic polling shows when you ask voters they think minute wage is pro growth not Corporate Tax cuts. Sara . I think thats right. It was a performance. To some degree it was about setting up the argument for the next election which is pretty stunning for a guy who is not ever going to be on the ballot again. I do think though whats really troubling about this is leaders lead, and you bring your party along and the rest of the country. And he had a real opportunity last night to say to democrats and to say to the country, you know, yes, the middle class is important. We need to do more. But in order to be successful weve got to look at this from a big picture and democrats are going to have to give some and republicans are going to have to give some. Ill be honest hes unwilling to do that. Its stunning. If we had a republican president , im still not sure we could pass corporate tack reform reform. Broadening the base means there will be acot lot of companies with tax breaks that are important to them. Its extremely complex. Dave camp former chairman of the house ways and means. His Corporate Tax plan was not good. Where would you put the odds, 10 . A sluggers chance. Id say its lower today than it was yesterday. Look Mitch Mcconnell and john boehner are two people you can get a deal with and maybe its not as big as or bold as many on the right would like but they could have gotten something, and they could have done they could have lowered the rates, broadened the base and done it in a revenue neutral way. Sara fagen, thank you. Good to see you this afternoon. You too. Want to draw your attention to ebay moving afterhours. Comments from carl icahn indicating support but what are investors really say being this 1234. There are two things investors are watching. First of all, they authorized an additional 2 billion buyback plans. They have 1 billion left in the existing plan. It means its total capacity 3 billion to buy back stock. Its going through a transformational period. The other thing theyre watching is this fact ebay bale lookssically look like a carve out story. You have three parts of the company, pay pal, enterprise which it says it will spin off or ipo, or sell altogether. People have already been talking about what happens to the marketplaces business which is the original sort of the vintage business that ebay has. The slowest growing business. Thats what theyre going to be left with. Are public investors going to buy that stock in that standalone unit . So the question probably will be invigorated whether ebay is a complete carve out, whether any of these unitings wills will stand alone. Keeping an eye on ebay and sending it out to Courtney Reagan for an earnings update. Kelly, here is two more companies out with earnings after the bell. Discover financial moving lower in the after hours. The company posting weaker than expected Fourth Quarter earnings. The stock currently trading down by 3. 5 or so and then xilinx Third Quarter beat by a penny but sales coming in weaker than expected. Xilinx is trading down by 5 at this point. Kelly, back to you. All right. A you have to session there, courtney. And a rough earnings season so far for financials. Well talk with the ceo of Raymond James to get his take on whats happening ai dont saycross the sector. And the end is near for motley crue. They have announced their final concert ever and theyve signed a binding contract to make sure it really is the last one. Motley crue coming up. I already see them out here on the floor on the closing bell. [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops. So open an account with schwab. And when a market move affects, say a Cloud Computing stock youre holding, we can help you decide what to do. With tools that help you see how market activity is affecting your positions. So when the time comes to decide whether to scale in or scale out. You can make your move wherever you are. And start working on your next big idea. Welcome back. Financial Services Firm Raymond James reporting its earnings just out this hour. Downer joining joining me is the joe paul riley reilly. We had record assets under administration. Record assets under management. Record net loans, added 71 net financial advisers. So the basic parts of the business, the drivers, were all up, so thats a good portent into the future in an uncertain market as everybody talks about whats happening with Interest Rates in the market. I want to talk about rates but what about the Capital Market portion . Why the challenges there . First, people are worried, we do have a practice in canada and the u. S. Thats strong in the Energy Sector and certainly thats been off a little bit. Even though if it stays down m a activity will pick up that will lag. Thats been a little challenging. Financings have been challenging. M a and sales and trading have been good but the markets have been lumpy. We hear a lot of talk about people either on the equity side or the credit side wanting to nibble and get involved but how long realistically do you think its going to be before we see people looking for opportunities, a bottom in the Energy Market and that pickup in m a activity you mentioned. Who knows when the bottoms will come. Most of the analysts say we have a good 12 to 18 months to ride through it but at these levels were very comfortable with our limited exposure we have in our bank and m a activity maybe a quarter to two quarters until that picks up. A big deal was announced already today in the Energy Sector. Could be quicker. Where do you think your firm then looks to offset look if energy was the story, if commodities were the story for the last four or five years and it was real estate before that whats the hot area now . Where is the growth . Where are you going to put your resources . Well, you know one thing we do is we stay longterm focused. If it rides down for a while, well ride with it. So the good news is almost over twothirds of our revenue is the private client group and were up in assets and up in advisers. Productivity is at an alltime record and continues to rise. Thats the biggest driver of our business. Bank loans are up. And so as long as spreads hold that will continue to drive, and the Capital Markets business although very good businesses are the other third. So they have less impact even though they are a little more lumpy. Im curious bringing up some of those clients. You have a ton of advisers as you mentioned. And where are clients putting their money or being told to . Is it in equities . Are they in bond funds . Is it hybrids . Is it tax protected kinds of accounts . Where are the really interests in the flows today . Flows are heading back to real estate. Certainly flows came out of Energy Although personally i put some of my money into energy given these prices. I think cyclically theyre down and will come back. The secret for a client is theyre not going to outtrade institutions. Theyve got to keep a diversified portfolio and look long term so if you look at relative xhodcommodity prices theyre relatively low. Where are they going to be in three to five years. You have to take that kind of horizon. If you try to outtrade the institutions, the individual client doesnt do well. We tell them to stay diversified. You cant make bets on any one sector and long term you will do fine. If you have to roughly tell us, what would be the break down for people between stocks and bonds . Is it overwhelmingly bonds these days and fixed income or is it still a healthy portion of stocks . Well, if you looked at the average, which is dangerous because each individual is an individual of one, you know, stocks is still the biggest portion and then fixed income and cash but you have retirees that are have been locked in to fixed income for a while, theyre doing fine. You have got people that are still looking for growth because theyre younger, either building their net worth or early on retirement that has to last them a long time and they will be more weighted to equities. So you really do have to do an individual Financial Plan for each person because their goals, their needs, their challenges are all different. In this environment certainly a reminder of that. Paul, thank you for being here this afternoon. The ceo of Raymond James as they report earnings. Really appreciate it. Coming up elton john once saying sorry seems to be the hardest word but not all for one fund manager who lost all his clients money. His apologies is burning up the hot list. Still to come, school is very much in these days. Weve got motley crue joining us. Alice cooper the opening acted for that tour and motley crue is in the final months ever of touring. Theyre going to tell us about it and why they made the decision when we come back. You just got a big bump in miles. So this is a great opportunity for an upgrade. Sound good . Great. Because youre not you youre a whole airline. And its not a ticket youre upgrading its your entire operations, from domestic to international. Which means you need help from a whole team of advisors. From workforce strategies to Tech Solutions and a thousand other things. So you call pwc. The right people to get the extraordinary done. Well its rare that an apology will drive people to the web but thats exactly what was happening on cnbc. Com today. This was no ordinary apology and our sites managing editor Allen Wastler is here to tell us why. Kelly, even this ebay news couldnt jostle this from the number one spot on the website today. Owen lee wrote a letter to shareholders about the performance of his fund. He had 100 million of their money back in march. Now its down to 200,000. In his letter he said he was truly sorry, but the money is gone. He was a little bit overly aggressive. He hopes theyll understand. The story has been burning it up all day long. Its a really good story. Weve also gotten a lot of traction out of the davos interviews coming out of switzerland. The one thats leading the pack is the interview with jamie dimon, the ceo of jpmorgan chase. Him talking about the biggest sin in america is how we arent graduating enough inner city and minority kids out of high school. He points out that their dropout rate is about twice that for white students. Thats getting a lot of attention on the website which makes me feel heartened about our audience. And third the twitter verse is going nuts over this patriot deflation gate thing. You have heard about how theyre accused of deflating the balls in the championship game. And theres a corporate angle. Krispy kreme doing a tweet saying, hey, ours are fully filled. And, of course the michelin man coming out and inflating footballs, showing people how to do it. Great stuff there. Thats it kelly. Allen, thank you. Im looking at dr. J here. Tell us this football deflation thing. Is this a long standing thing . This was the first that any of us had heard of it was this weekend, but apparently the same thing happened at a game in november, one of their linebackers or one of the people who intercepted a tom brady pass did about the same thing back then kelly, saying boy, the baugh feels a little soft and to have a majority of those balls be soft doesnt seem accidental and given the history with and you can understand that this could be costly to them unfortunately. A lot of pressure on the nfl to respond. We havent heard from them. Its just been reported the status. Super bowl coming up puts them in a delicate position. Yeah it will be even more watched now. Thats probably true. As we keep an eye on ebay naming two picks to the board, the icon will be on halftime tomorrow right here on cnbc. About 12 30 eastern time so be sure to tune in to all of that. Straight ahead, were going to trade in one crue for another. Motley crue joins me right here on the closing bell. We needed 30 new hires for our call center. Im spending too much time hiring and not enough time in my kitchen. [ female announcer ] need to hire fast . Go to ziprecruiter. Com and post your job to over 30 of the webs leading job boards with a single click; then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list. You put up one post and the next day you have all these candidates. Makes my job a lot easier. [ female announcer ] over 100,000 businesses have already used zip recruiter and now you can use zip recruiter for free at a special site for tv viewers; go to ziprecruiter. Com offer2. Welcome back on december 31st of this year after 34 years of performing together motley crue is calling it quits. The final tour will mark the end on new years eve with a performance at the Staples Center in los angeles. Joining me now is tommy lee and welcome this is a First Experience here for us and we know that so many viewers are interested in you guys and the long career you had and the way youve decided to keep yourselves from performing together. Why are you signing this contract to never perform together again. We didnt want to be that band that you go see your favorite band like ten years later and theres maybe one guy in the band and youre playing clubs and state fairs and things like that. We want to be remembered as going out on top and doing it our way. You seem to be having a good time after being been through a lot in the past together. So why not keep it going . Its just a decision that we made and we figured after 35 years people are had enough of it. Thats about it. A lot of people are saying thank god theyre calling it a day. I dont know. What happened to rock and roll . I was reading some of the interviews where you say nobody performs like they used to. Why do you think that is . They dont listen to enough rock and roll. They listen to the prefabricated stuff. I dont know. Its weird. Things change you know. Everyone is depressed these days. I guess. Seems new bands are learning to whistle before they learn how to play a guitar solo. Listen whistling can be a great effect. One thing i loved as well about how you guys launched your career involved steve of apple in 1982 and what was the tour he sponsored. Oh my gosh. Look at this. Why was that so formittive . There was 360,000 people there. It was like the biggest collection of rock and roll bands. It was van halen and ozzie and scorpions and us and the list went on and it was a huge day and for us we were actually doing songs from shout the devil before shout the devil even came out. So we were koing songs nobodydoing songs nobody even knew. I guess they like what had they heard. Mt. Meantime you moved on to other endeavors. You have a ton of Different Enterprises but how do you decide to protect your publishing library from here on . How do you make those decisions . Isnt there a movie coming out . Where might i find you next . Motley crue movie out. We have been protective and smart with our licensing. We did a great deal with dodge last year. Motley crue and dodge . Yeah. What was that conversation like. Think about it the life styles, the Dodge Brothers and what dodge represents and the challengers and chargers and motley crue is similar and thats the stuff we have been doing a lot. And Home Sweet Home and connected. Man, we crew up with you and now were buying houses. Do they call you sell outs for doing those kind of things . I dont know. Went from wrecking houses to buying houses. I dont know whats happened. Exactly. When you think as well about the way you signed this contract to not perform together what happens next year if you want to make music . Is everybody on his own . Well we can make music. Tommy is going to do music and nikki has 6 00 a. M. And i have a solo band and youll be hearing music from you us but not together. Theres fine print that says were not allowed to talk to each other for one year. No is there really . I dont know if i believe you. We actually may have put that in there. To protect yourself. We signed it because making the announcement that we were going to end our touring career after 35 years we knew everybody would go theyll be back in five or six years and the truth is were not so that was a way for us to do something legally that would bind us from ever touring together. Home sweet home is often the song thats last in the set. Yeah. That you mentioned. I cant believe who was saying in one piece as well that it is emotional for you guys. It would be 35 years if you stayed through next january 16th or 17th . New years eve is the last show. But well have our 35th birthday on the 17th. Where can people find if they want to get the tickets . All of that information is available . Its all at motley. Com. All our tickets and presale packages and stuff. I want to ask because this comes down to money and how were managing and all of that. What are the biggest mistakes you guys made money wise that you learned from and lived through. Getting married. Is that it. Everybody agree . Investmentwise . Business decisions . Anything like that come to mind . I remember early on a financial manager we had always said play it safe and were not really play it safe kind of guys but in that department we listened pretty good and the biggest overhead that motley crue ever had wasnt our houses or cars or lifestyles. We invested in ourself. We spent tens of millions of dollars on our shows where we really didnt have to but its left this legacy of being one of these massive touring bands. Oh yeah we see the pay off now. Guys thank you for being here. Coming down to the new york stock exchange. Good luck with the rest of it. Well be following along for sure. Past money is coming up in a few minutes. Another crue awaits. I got my own every night five days a week. Amazon getting upgraded and well start right now. Live from the Nasdaq Market site overlooking new york city times square, im melissa lee. Ebay American Express sandisk all out with earnings. Plus the details on ebays agreement with carl icahn but tonights first story, reversal of fortune trades. Stocks seeing a change in the new year like netflix, amazon and ebay. Lets kick it off with netflix. The stock was down 25 in the last three months of 2014. Today it closed up 17 on the back of earns. Guy adami