Engineering giant plans a 3 billion buyback. Welcome. This is the pulse. Mario draghi is speaking in the European Parliament right now. Pastid that q. E. Will run september 2016 if needed. Aredownside Economic Risks visible. His comments had driven the euro lower against the dollar, sterling and yen. The fed is, as expected to hike rates, widmark the First Time Since 1994 there was Monetary Policy diversions between europe and the u. S. Back then, janet yellen was teaching at university. Mario draghi was a senior Civil Servant in the italian finance ministry. Europes benchmark break was set by germany. That months, the fed boosted benchmark rates to 3. 5 . The Buddhist Bank cut its discount rate by half a percentage point. Cut itsundesbank discount rate by half a percentage point to it who better to discuss these issues then my guest. The founder and managing director. Richard jones is in the house, from the bloomberg first word team. We heraard from you before. You are listening to draghi. Nothing new but dovish. That is what we wanted. Completely in line with what the next 1218 months. We have seen signs of revival in europe. If you look at credit cycles and headwinds from fiscal policies waning, all of this is quite positive. Yet, at the same time, the Global Environment is not very supportive. China, e. M. , look at the impact china in europe. All of this put together means that if we have a rate rise in the u. S. In december, will it be a little bit too late for europe to actually engineer a meaningful recovery if world conditions continue to slow down and the u. S. Hurrah,f america rises, we are all off to the races. And then all ships rise. Its the currency where we are getting the major response. Richard, i want to bring you in because you look at the statistics. And that is what we do very well a bloomberg. We deal with facts and stats. Take me through the postdraghi, we have seen the euro dollar moving, but the market interpretation. Richard before draghi spoke this morning there was a high expenditures expended see that we were expectancy that we would get a cut. Its looking like that is fully price. Actually we, Market Participants are working on the next 10 basis point which are 80 price by september of next year. So there was an expectation from Market Participants that we would get not only an expansion a extension of q. E. But also 10 basis point deposit rate cut. Manus vocally he did not see anything major say anything majorly new. I suppose it is bit like the fed governors trying to tell us, dont worry. It is going to be the most of h cycle you have ever seen. We had data from china talking about loans and the amount of money going into the economy. That is very much below what the market had expected. But china has been a very prescient issue for the federal and it may just be chinas bowl is back. And that may give yellen the opportunity, the dollar we know is in the descendents. That has been an issue for them, but china was something they mentioned quite a lot in terms of their thinking. And that would drop away. The second being largest economy in the world and being in transformation, the structural adjustment is not done. I personally think that the 6. 5 growth for the next five years is on the bullish side. That adjustment is going to continue. If we have a stabilization of adjustment that will give yellen the opportunity to put that rate hike that she probably wants to add in, because later with the elections going on, it is going to be more tricky. Clearly, the fed does not want to be at zero if we have a slowdown coming up and not be able to do much. Which this mystifies me, is one and done, to end on, three and on and going hawkish to the hilt. We are hardly rocking it at 1 . Im working on the assumption that it will be 25 basis point clips in succession. It does not leave them with a lot of room to maneuver if we see a material dip. Richard ive always been of the opinion that anything fed funds is still zero. You need to get closer to 2 and then you are off the schneid. Then that gives you some room to cut if you need to. Have they left it a little bit late . I think one and done is a ludicrous concept. Zero. Ng sub 1 is still if theyre looking to cut into the next slowdown, they have to get rates higher than 1 . I think we are in a new paradigm with a range of rates will have to be much lower because the low rate in the low rate world, low inflation, etc. I think they have to start somewhere. So maybe what it is is it is going to be a very slow step. Then that is what the markets are going to wonder. What is the path afterwards and is it going to be a policy mistake . We will see that probably first in the currency market. You verychard, thank much for taking time away from the bloomberg first word desk. Speaking of Central Banks, plenty of said action today. If youve not got enough of mario draghi, you have James Bullard who speaks on monetary time. At 2 05 u. K. Janet yellen is making remarks at the fed policy conference. President later fed Charles Evans speaks on the economy and policy in the windy city, chicago, for those of you who do not know what that is. That is a look at what else is on our radar this thursday on the pulse. On the claimant fell below 6 . The company is adding 59,000 jobs in october. That is four times the estimate of most economists. The figures back the view that reserve bank of australia does not need to cut rates further from a record low. German engineering giant siemens andraised fourthquarter profit Beat Estimates. The ceo says he expects no growth in 2016 profit margins. Shares trading higher this morning. Aggregatew loans and financing came in much lower than forecast. The pboc says aggregate financing was 476 billion yuan in october. Highlighting the consent about the slowdown in the economy. Burberry is expecting a very merry christmas. We ask why the luxury brand is so confident about its time several holiday plants. Rollsroyce pitch shares plunge as a Company Issues a profit warning. Manus lets take a look at some of our top stories today. The job cuts come through at bae. While burberry shines. Lets start with rollsroyce, the worst performance on the stoxx 600, down 22 . Hitting its lowest since 2010. Biggest drop in the stock since 2000. After the Company Issued a profit warning. Thet said this year profit will be at the lower end of the range. It faces headwinds and aerospace and marine markets. And weaker demand is forecast for next year. Next years earnings rollsroyce says will be hurt by a 650 Million Pound headwind. They are moving on to bae systems. We are seeing shares move higher after the Company Announced job cuts. 371 jobs to go, in fact. That is jobs tied to the euro fighter typhoon. It will reduce output of the fighter jet. Moving from industrials to luxury. Burberry, firsthalf profit Beat Estimates pushing that share price higher. This is down to cost cuts, because it is still seeing a challenging environment, particularly to do with china. It gets 30 of its revenue from chinese consumers. Putting it in a weaker position than its peers. Because the problem is those chinese consumers are starting to spend more in japan and in europe, where they are benefiting from a weaker yen and euro. Nonetheless, burberry did say it is going to have a strong Christmas Holiday period. Manus thanks for the market round up. German engineering giant siemens has raised its dividend, and announced a buyback plan as fourthquarter profit Beat Estimates. Lier we spoke to the ceo. Let the market decide on whether this is true or not. We will get the feedback on whether the market believes we or not. This is to the shareholders and not too much to management. If it was to management, i would say, we did exactly that. We delivered what we promise. We have been one of the very few companies in the space who has been keeping their guidance, their initial guidance all the way through what i would say a deteriorating economic environment. So i think the company has done well but at the end the shareholders will decide. Investors like the results from siemens the smarty. Hans nichols is standing by in berlin. The stock is up 3 investors like the results from siemens. Hans they are holding on the guidance. Expect some benefit from the currency play, but they are saying that their order book is actually going to outpace the revenue expectations. The faceall of this in of a macro environment that siemens acknowledges is difficult. Was the situation in china not that bullish on what is happening in the states. Overall, when we take a look at what we learned from the company the last two hours, we do have a Dividend Increase up to 350, one of the highest on record. We do have the share buyback. 3 billion. Over three years. The previous one that just ended was 4 billion over two years. Investors seem to like that. Income fromve net the Industrial Division train to turbines that came in better than expected. Overall net income came in worse than expected. But the important thing on the profit margin, that came in at 10. 1 . A very bottom of their guidance, less than last year. This is for fiscal year 2015. They say for 2016 they expect a similar range, 1011 profit margin in the industrial unit. So much of this company, their focus has been on increasing margins. There has not been much progress on the industrial side. Investors like the moose this morning. Moves this morning. Manus thank you very much. On the siemens numbers. Lets bring our guest back in. Three very, very different stories. But lets try and pick through this. If i look at rollsroyce, they are telling me actually the business jet side of the business but the stock is down 17 . If you feel in this market fail to deliver in this market, it is the yen and yang. In a low growth world, the surprise when it hits will take the stock one way or the other. It is like a polarization. I think Global Growth is going to remain very slow. I think we are not going back to the years, the years we had before partly because of some of the trends that are dear to my heart such as Climate Change and the slowdown of the emerging markets. And i think that is going to continue. We also are in a new world in terms of range. You talk about ranges of stock prices being very high and very low. Actually, if you look at growth, if you look at rates, if you look at inflation, i think we are going to be a much tighter range than we have been in the past because there is a lot of output gap, there is a lot of capacity of underworld. The maturity of china has a Significant Impact on the Global Economy. I think all of this together means that if you are doing well and you can deliver, the market will compensate you. If youre not, the market will be very harsh. Manus lets pick up on one of those things. The normalization, the rebalancing of china. Bailey ofhave burberry using leg which ive not heard from a luxury ceo. Talking about scaling back, grasping control of the product range. And his exposure to china is quite critical. Your intimidation of luxury . Your interpretation of luxury . It is 1 trillion as a market if you put luxury cars. And what you have seen, again, is in this globalization, fragmentation. Sales of jewelry, diamonds for example. The safe haven assets have done quite well. Some of the watches have not done very well. And even between houses you can sus burberry, ver very different. The costcutting exercises going to stay. Them bringing lines together, purifying thos, streamlining. I think that is very important in a world that is going to be tougher. Now, china has not stopped buying luxury. As we have seen with the consumer numbers on the singles day numbers yesterday, there is still a lot of money. Consumers and china. But you have to be targeting and you have to have exactly the right product. So it is harder than it was 1015 years ago. Manus siemens is doing a buyback on top of a buyback. Is that a company that lacks any better idea than doing a buyback . Plus, you would say one of the is going tohe euro be the strong as tailwind in 20 years for europe. Lowercommodity prices, input prices. What do make of where we are with the cycle . I think we have sing a strong buyback cycle in the u. S. In the last two years. That has helped the market. We have not seen it to the same extent in europe. Clearly, it depends on companys financial strength and where they see opportunities. In general, investors would prefer that to no activity now, another topic that is very interesting is m a. Huge m a just recently in the beer business. Area withalso an cheap money. You would expect more of that to happen again, it goes back to capacity and output gap. So, i think we will see more of that in europe. Of siemens, the buyback makes a lot of sense. It is company by company. Manus you are going to stay with me. Next up, were going to talk banks. It becomes thecred latest letter to slash jobs. Plus, continuing to monitor mario draghi speaking at the European Parliament in brussels. Unicredit announced a job losses yesterday, saying 18,000 jobs would go. The banks ceo spoke to bloomberg. We are targeting a doubledigit non tangible equity. It is a sustainable target, achievable target. Reached through costcutting. Quite substantial. Losses are a part of a large trend in the sector for 2015. If you have a terminal, you want to press loss go. This is where you will see these numbers reflected. Barclays, deutsche bank, Standard Chartered cutting size through the workforce. Deutsche bank set to cut 26,000 jobs. That is what the announcement is. The bannerthese are headlines. Lets talk more about what is behind these numbers. When you see these banner headlines, we have had this over the years from a number of institutions. Up ass not always end being these numbers we are seeing at the moment. These are huge numbers in terms of banking. Those are big banks, too, very large staff. The key would be to understand exactly where they are coming from. Are they coming from support staff, from technology, are they coming from Investment Banking . Because i think that is very important. Staff can shed some without compromising quality of products, delivery, se normal i think it is a process. I would want to understand where the cuts are coming from. Negativeain, a more Interest Rate environment in europe. Te theory, a rising ra environment in the united states. But i cut up with sergio at ebs, and he said the reason we have profitability target is simply because the rights and private is different to what we ever thought it was going to be when we got to this stage. Absolutely. I think this is the new world we are talking about. We just published a piece c godot. Waiting for for thisto be prepared opportunity to last for a while. That does not mean you will have opportunities to invest. But you have to be prepared for more in a narrow range and for Interest Rates to be very low or negative for quite a while. Manus we have got one more section to go. We are joined to get into some of the bigger themes in terms of disruption. And Climate Change. Stay with me for that. Na. E news fomrom chi new credit data disappoints. Can the central bank to anything more to boost the economy . We are live to beijing. A reminder twitter. Im manus cranny. Stay with us. We are going to take a very, very short break. The only way to get better is to challenge yourself, and thats what were doing at xfinity. We are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. And this includes our commitment to being on time. Every time. Thats why if were ever late for an appointment, well credit your account 20. Its our promise to you. Were doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. Because we should fit into your life. Not the other way around. Manus welcome back. This is the plusulse. Top headlines. The Australian Dollar jumps after on the planet fell af ter unemployment fell below 6 . Ease the pressure on Australias Central Bank to add further stimulus to the economy. Siemens has racist dividends and announced a 3 billion euro share buyback. That comes as fourthquarter profit Beat Estimates. The cheek executive chief executive expects no growth and profit margins. European Central Bank PresidentMarriott Draghi has warned that the dollar side Economic Risks are clearly visible mario draghi has warned that the Economic Risks are clearly visible. He told lawmakers that q. E. Will run past september 2016. price pressures remain subdued. Signs of of a sustained turnaround in core inflation have somewhat weekend weake ned. While the recovery will gradually strengthen the impulse underlying the inflation process, the projected economic weakness of the past years continues to weigh on nominal wage growth. And this could moderate price pressures as we move forward. Measure ofas new credit has fell. Cuts have not spurred a pickup in borrowing. Thats get more from our beijing bureau chief. Nick, good to see you again. We have had a little bit of time to digest this. It is a headline miss. What do you think after digesting the numbers . Nick there are two ways to look at this number. Is this credit growth figure does swing pretty broadly from month to month. The last time it was this low and 2014 they had a bumper month th emonte month. String thingsyou together, you start to see a picture of the latest in a string of bad data. Exports going down. So cause for concern there. The bigger issue is if chinese aboutare too concerned the economy, about profits, about the cost of servicing do furtherent debt to investment, that sends a warning sign because then you start to look at japan during its lost decades and you start to have much broader concerns about the shape of the chinese economy. Manus do you think they will go again . Do you think this will provoke a more Immediate Response . Nick yeah. You know, that really is the big question. And when you look at six Interest Rate cuts and the last year, what this data shows is that they have not worked. So certainly it does seem to open the door more or will add to pressure on the government to ease. They have so much room to do so. Interest rates 4. 2 . Go lower. Room to they do have the tools. The latest data does seem to suggest they will use them in the coming months. Manus thanks for the briefing. Our bureau chief in beijing. When you listen to nick and you look at the data, how do you look at china . Do you expect more fiscal policy easing . Do you expect monetary easing . How do you think they will act . Toi think that youre going continue to use those tools in a measured way to support the economy towards the growth rate, which is lower than where we are now. Manus where do you think that will be . My personal view is it should be around 5 . To, its a hard number pinpoint but it is just thinking about how the economy is shifting towards consumption. And i think that would be a very good number. Cleary, it is not a number for next year. I think what they are doing as they are using those tools and a measured way. Clearly, they have a lot of room. On the other hand, we have seen that consumption can do quite well. Inflation manus the consumer. You look at the absolute yesterdayof jack ma creating a platform. I know it is not like amazon. It is a platform for doing business. 14 billion. The numbers are staggering. The middle class are growing. That is the key. And this is why im still positive for investment in china. Those can get to basically spending of that money that is being spent, but you have to be very careful because ise market and people in th market tend to be very emotional. You want to buy the market when everybody hates it. In a bull market. With that in mind, i know this is a theme as he go towards christmas. Climate change. But also you is suggest that Climate Change is my entre into china. Absolutely. I think there are a lot of things that need to happen there. We have just published a piece on air pollution. 7 Million People a year die from air pollution. The cost to the Global Economy is enormous. But also to china. In china, it has become a preoccupation for the consumer, for the government. And there is a lot of investment that you can make that are linked to that issue, being from measuring pollution or climate an extract to mitigating to new technology that would be disrupted in their sectors in terms of doing things in another way, sharing, more efficient. This is going to continue to we talked about this for a long time. But there is money to be made. I think the thing about the paris meeting in december and kerry commented on that it will not be a treaty for technical reasons but i think we have to Pay Attention very much to what will be said because they will be there will be transfer investments in that. Manus thank you very much. Next, its now europes biggest asset traded manager. We get an opportunity speak with a ceo. Ipo day in paris. They rang the bell. The stock trades higher. Manus welcome back to the pulse. Group havemundi started trading this morning. Lets speak to the ceo. Yves perrier. He joins us from paris for next was event you. Congratulations. Good to see the stock up and running and trading this point. This morning. My perception is this is a very competitive market. Everybody wants to be in it. What makes amundi a different proposition on the Asset Management, as it were, sales trail . Yves firstly, what is amundi . Of is a Successful Development and profitability since its creation five years ago. Model. Ent a very robust and institutional investors. With very Strong Development for the future in two main regions which are europe and asia. Manus europe and asia. In terms of the geography, im just wondering, the u. S. Is also a land of milk and hunting, milk and honey. What perspective do you have in terms of really trying to go head to head with the likes of blackrock in that market . Defineell, firstly, we not our strategy and our route with reference to lps. We know that Asset Management industry is dominated by American Asset managers. Nonamerican among the top 10. Our strategy is to define the high where we have probability to be successful. This fields for us are mainly europe and especially the eurozone, that we want to do o ur natural domestic market and secondly asia, where we manage steel. More than still more than 100 Million Euros of yuan. Manus we have a lot of regulations. The bond markets have big risks in terms of liquidity. The first rate hike possibly next year in a generation. Liquidity is testing away from the major banks. Is this an opportunity for amundi . Will you as part of your Business Model begin to take advantage of that and be a liquidity provided to the markets, where the banks are retrenching . I hear what youre saying about europe and asia on the pure play, but what about that in terms of your model . Yves firstly, you are right to say that liquidity is a key topic. Because on one side, there are huge amounts of liquidity which are injected by Central Banks. But the liquidity in the market has declined, especially because Investment Bankers drastically making their market capacities. Why somes a reason things that we managed, where we look attention. Also, we benefit from a very strong Balance Sheet with m ore than 2 billion euros of equities as no debt at all. N provider ofhe mai liquidity in europe. We are number 14 monetary funds. Number one for monetary funds. There is also room to develop alternative cash reserves like private debt real estate, which is an alternative opportunity for longterm investors to traditional bonds. About yourtalk expansion plans, yorur plans to dominate in markets of asia and your presence in europe, you are now a listed company. You now perhaps i have more ability to make acquisitions. Businessadd to the via acquisition in asia . What kind of targets might you look at in terms of expanding the business . Yves firstly, what i want to say is that the dna of the Growth Strategy of amundi is organic growth. In five years, we have increased year to end by nearly 50 . That means 300 billion euros increase. It has been exclusively done by organic growth. Tothe same time, we look potential acquisitions. I have a strong capital, as mentioned, reserve. Of 1. 3 billion euros. Acquisition with criteria. The first is ability to generate synergies. Pricecond is to have a which are acceptable, and the last which is not the least, the capacity of integration. Limited execution of risk. Every have done in the past, with acquisition of societe generale, which led to the creation of amundi. Manus before let you go, how worried about you about markets, the ability of markets to react to the new world of rising Interest Rates . Simulating the risks of how markets will react. Should we be concerned about Market Reaction to a new paradigm of rates in 2016 . Dontfirstly, i anticipate a strong increase of Interest Rate because of the policy of all Central Banks. All Central Banks in the world are the same policy which is very accommodative. But having said that, we can anticipate some interest, if its managed properly. Majort think it would shocks on the market. Manus thank you very much. We wish you well with your trading on day one for amundi. Yves perrier, the chief executive of amundi. Thank you. Now, more of our top headlines on the pulse. Rollsroyce shares have dropped sharply after the company says this years earnings will were hit by a headway. It is facing declining demand for jet engines. 19 atres down nearly this stage of the trading day. Burberry group has reported estimates beating firsthalf earnings. Adjusted pretax profits in the last six months rose 3 to 153 Million Pounds for the company says it is cutting bonuses, consolidating products under one label as it grapples with slowing demand in china. There was a fire at a construction site in the city of london. There are 58 firefighters battling the five did the destination is quite close to the bloomberg offices. Its very near to the commute rpoint for the financial district. Fire engines attending that fire scene at the moment. Next up, modi mania. Minister inrime spite of frenzy in his visit to the u. S. Last year. He arrives in the u. K. Today with 60,000 people expected to attend a rally in wembley. Nevermind football. Modi draws a crowd. Manus this is the pulse live on bloomberg television, streaming on your tablet, phone, and bloomberg. Com. Time to chart the market with mark barton. Mark janet yellen and her number two mr. Fisher speaking. The consensus is december is on. It is when the second hike will happen. Looking at fund futures, a chart for the second hike in 2016. Despite draghi signaling there would be more stimulus in december. Have a look at the hang seng index. Before today, it had fallen for five days. Today it is the bestperforming asian stock market. Rising for the first time in six days. Has been dragged down by weaker than expected china data. The third worst performing global benchmark, sinking 21 . Have a look at the us p yesterday we were talking about the kiwi. The new Zealand Dollar peter today the new Zealand Dollar. Jobs we had some strong figures. The on rate unexpectedly fell in october providing pressure. The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly fell in october providing pressure. Swaps prices put the odds of a reduction by june at 50 before the release of the jobs report. They were at 62 . 13 againstas done its u. S. Counterpart this year p or check out this stock, wow. It is not every day you see a stock losing a fifth of its value. 2 billion pounds of market value falling. It, by the way, is rollsroyce holdings. We not talking about the motorcars. We are talking about the u. K. Engine maker. This is a onemonth chart. To show the big whoosh taking place. Now it is down a mere 18 . It announced a profit warning. 2 billion disappearing. Earnings are going to be heard by declining demand for business jet engines and Maintenance Services on bigger turbines. This years profit is going to be the lower end of its forecast range. We are looking forward to the chief executives reshuffle on november 24. Manus a pretty horrendous drop. Indias Prime Minister is the he first timer t this week. He is due to lunch with the queen and meet with David Cameron and address mps in parliament. Prime minister modi will hoping to lure more british cash to india. To discuss this we have a guest from bloomberg tv in india. The whole world is getting ready for modi. This is about business as well as p. R. Absolutely. It has really been all about for the Prime Minister. Bringing in Foreign Investment has been high on his list hurt but the timing is critical. He has just suffered a pretty state elections. He has been very criticized by the opposition with regards to the fact he had so many frequent foreign visits. What is going to be critical to see is whether or not visits like this will result in execution Going Forward . Will we see those big bank deals . What will be resulted from this . Manus the press would sake he is being treated on par with the chinese premier, but does he have enough in his swag bag for britain. At home, theyre asking, what is he going to come home with . Abha it is interesting you bring that up because brought up certain points where they feel india could reciprocate as, in fat, again in fact, again, timing is interesting. No, is coming in and saying we are going to be job makers. Everybody is asking how. Some of these questions are being raised. Manus you are off to the palace to mark. Abha we are going to be following the Prime Minister around. Manus i know what that can be like. I hope the weather holds up for you. We look for some results from that. That is it for the pulse. You have got bloomberg a first word on radio. And for our tv viewers, it is global surveillance from londo n and new york. An ocean apart the fed in the ecb are set to go their separate ways. Draghi tells the risks are clearly visible. Modi goes to downing street. Indias Prime Minister makes his first visit to the u. K. He is looking to lure more british cash to india. And uncontained failure. Rollsroyce shares sink the most in 15 years, this