Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20160205

January, its truly a demrobal story today. Caroline it certainly is. Dollar weak thns week, what european surging, what yen surging, what a pain for the rest of the central bankers in the world. As everyone in the u. S. Is going to be raising rates. Tom i said this last week, caroline, you should have been from, we had a soiree of bloomberg talent, and i said the yen is the single story. Right now you need more than a single story. Lets get to bloomberg first ord. The panel ruled that assange has been arbitrarily detained bins 2010 and should be freed. Assange has been holed up in weak door since 2010. He would be extradited to sweden and could end up in the u. S. Being questioned about leaked classified documents. A brisht government Spokesman Says the u. N. Ruling changes nothing. It was the first president ial candidate this season with only two candidates on stage, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. They squared off last night in New Hampshire in a debate on msnbc. Sanders said he is the democrat who will represent the people. Senator sand rds our campaign is a campaign by the people, of the people, for the people. Secretary clinton does represent the establishment. I represent, i hope, ordinary americans. And by the way, who im not all that enamored with the establishment, but i am very proud to have. Secretary clinton honestly, senator sanders is the only person who would characterize me a woman running to be the first woman president as exemplifying the establishment. The two battled. Clinton said she would look into releasing transcripts of her speeches. A new poll sends a plan to take the u. K. Out of the European Union leads by nine points. 45 want out of the e. U. 36 want to stay in. 19 of those polled were undecided. They were surveyed after the Prime Minister won some concessions from the European Union. And president obama will propose a 10 a barrel tax on oil in his upcoming budget. Its unlikely to go anywhere in the republicancontrolled congress. The president wants the money to go toward transportation and climate projects. That tax is part of the administrations plan to shift the nation away from fossil fuels. Global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2,400 journalists around the world. Tom rainee, thank you. Lets get into a data check. Were really going to focus on the yen. Caroline hyde mentioning that earlier. Futures higher. What a shock off of january. Euro 1. 12 yesterday, off weaker dollars. Steven shork adamant this is just simply a move. Less volatility than many would suggest, 1 points, and the dow showing some oomph this week. Yen, theres my story. And brent under 35. Caroline . Caroline lets check in here, because you say theres less volatility, but the stoxx 600, tom, already between gains and losses five times since last i checked. Auto, banks leading the charge. You also have swiss Bank Strength this morning after the Swiss National bank flashing their cash, still trying to push its currency lower, buying in foreign currency. Worry at a record high of 580 billion of foreign reserves. Nevertheless, they just cant fight it. The swiss franc goes higher. Big story here, tom. Miners are so well this week, but dow is going to the market to raise more cash. And lastly, gold is up. 2 , a little bit of a trade there. Tom weve got a euro chart, and well show it. Right over to the bloomberg, lets do that, and this is like the litmus paper of the banking system, the vanilla spread. Heres the ugliness of recession, up we go, and this rollover got people thinking. I would suggest that the fear of recession is more about money coming in to the United States. The flows of money globally and what were going to see and almost getting out in front of that negative Interest Rate scenario. This is a little bit for the gloom view. I dont buy it right now. But nevertheless, if it walks like a duck, maybe it is. Caroline, get us started with our guests this morning. Who darkened the door this morning in london . Caroline were going to talk of will we, wont we see a global recession. Were speaking to an optimist, because u. S. Jobs data, the dollar heading for its worst week since 2009 on bets that the fed might hold off on those Interest Rate hikes later in the year. George magazine us in joins us to discuss all of this, and ouve been adamant so far. Do you start to worry when you see the volatility in the market . George yeah, of course, it does bother me that things arent great. I do think that this u. S. Recession is the most or global recession is probably the most predicted event since nostradamus, which just being facetious, that alone might tell you that maybe its a little bit hyped. But more seriously, i think the we see lots of soft patches, so Business Investment in the United States hasnt been that great, images being built up too high, sales hasnt kept pace, although theres a correction going ork the dollar strong. All the sections that we have before had been preceded by a surge in oil prices, at least back in the 1970s. So i think this is a soft patch that well muddle through, but i dont think its going to tip us to the edge. Caroline this is starting to drive growth. Its meant to be a positive. George once weve absorbed the negative shock of Lower Oil Prices on energy cap ex and all the companies that basically feed into that, you know, i think it will come through. Savings rate in the United States has gone up, which actually in and of itself is a bad thing for the economy in real time, but actually gives the consumer a bit more purchasing power Going Forward. Actually i think we have to be patient. Tom this has been the miracle of jobs. Weve got any number of charts today to show you folks on the merican labor economy. Dd what a shock in america. With your experience and from your view from london, what is it about the United States that clears markets, that gives us a better trajectory to our Unemployment Rate . George well, im not sure how much better than 5 we want to see it. I mean, its possible that the Unemployment Rate can still edge a little bit lower, and i think that although people kind of say that, you know, the labor market, labor statistics are kind of lagging indicators of the economy, i mean, normally, if we were going into a good, oldfashioned recession, i think the labor market would have shown pronounced signs of weakness before now. I mean, the danger, i suppose, is that the underlying level of growth in the economy obviously is not good, and so shocks like emerging markets, you know, the kinds of profits recession are the kinds of things that could tip the economy over for a quarter, but i still think well muddle through, to be honest. Tom when you look at the trajectory, its been done by Monetary Policy, its been done by good old economic growth. But what we see here, and i know theres attention in europe as well, its simply two americas. Theres almost a job tightness to part of america, and then for the rest of money it isnt money. How, too, is our two americas. George i mean, the dichotomy in the economy, again, its not uniquely american. You know, we have it all over europe as well. Maybe the United States, United Kingdom actually are two extreme examples, where, you know, its sort of a one tale is about high levels of employment, lots of people in the United Kingdom, record numbers of people are worth. Not quite so in the United States pause of the participation rate. But nevertheless, the other side of that obviously is kind of a dissatisfaction and a disillusion on the part of lots of citizens and voters that, you know, theyve been neglected, theyre not sharing in the spoils of such economic recovery as weve had, income inequality, these kind of social issues. In one respect, theyre took kind of ok. On the other side, i think theres a big failing of Public Policy which resonates with a lot of people. Caroline what people to want see is more money in their pockets. They want wages to go up. Youve got unemployment remaining at 5 in the u. S. George yeah, i think its been developed rd in most countries. Again, i would say, if were patient, i think that labor market tightness over an extended period of time, if we get it, will feed through into hiring, better wage formation, particularly for skilled workers, but i dont think that, you know, nobody is holding their breath, to be honest. Tom George Magnus with us to get us start. Bill gross and jim glassman will join us in the 8 00 hour. Coming up in our next hour, the chief economist of citigroup. He wrote a scathing, constructive note on negative Interest Rates this weekend. Well talk to bill. Stay with us. This jobs day, bloomberg surveillance. Caroline this is bloomberg surveillance. Tom, you are missing a great day in london. Check out this millennium bridge at the moment. We are seeing greenish hue, just up. Materials, Energy Stocks really leading the gains this morning. Lets get straight on into our business. Thanks so much. First up, two of the worlds Biggest Toy Companies have had talks about merging. Hasbro approached mattel about a possible deal last year. Since then the two have held on and off again discussions. Mattel has been trying to revive its barbie business. Hasbro has the transformers and my little pony. The Third Largest lender in switzerland will pay more than half a billion dollars, 547 million to settle a u. S. Tax evasion case. They admit they helped american clients hide billions of dollars in assets. It coached its bankers on how to avoid detection. And Fourth Quarter profit fell more than expected in b. N. P. Paribas. Net income was down 52 from a year ago. B. N. P. Says it is restructuring its Investment Bank to boost profit and free up capital. That is the Bloomberg Business flash. Tom whole different story than credit suisse. Caroline hyde, help me here with b. N. P. Paribas. What is the distinctive feature there of the other beleaguered european banks . Caroline its about overhauling and the fact they did a dive dent. It was raised by more than 50 , so that really is trying to woo the investor base. When you look at the numbers, we thought it was going to be a crash in the stock price today, but actually the calls started coming in, and it was going to go higher because of the dividend rise, and because theyre liking the capital as well, tom. We saw the capital just manage to improve, up about 20 . Tom different story from what Francine Lacqua was reporting on earlier this week. What do we have, caroline . Caroline youre exactly right. Banks have been one of the worst performing Industry Groups this year, and on to another one thats not fared that well, commodities k. They cope with the current slump . Planning to raise 3 billion to investors to ride out the current storm. Weve got to be fair. The miners have done very well this week. That seems to be demend incident on the dollar weakness, although weve also seen that hand in hand. Theyre really showing the problems of having to raise money, because theyre so low. And actually, theyve done pretty well. If you look at the equity today, down 6 , and this market is sort of a blip. Heyre coming off a cliff. But youre right, theyre facing china. China says its going to cut tons over five years. Everyone saying thats probably maybe half of what actually has come out of the market. How do you contend with that . Tom the workdown, the Balance Sheet workup, where are we in the psych snell i mean, is it just starting . Thats my feeling, but am i wrong on that . It depends what you look at. If you look at futures in shanghai, which are key indicators, theyve been rallying for the last month or so. Is that an early sign were at the bottom of the cycle . I suspect not. But coming back to this point i made earlier, theres a lot in there. Utilization, global is down to Something Like 64, 65 . Most of last year was about 75 . Thats telling thaw things arent great. And the Bloomberg Intelligence have this indicator of profitability. Its been negative for a year now. Tom you chided me that im oil, oil, oil. Theres a lot more going on. Which metal best describes the global slowdown . Is it copper . Yeah, its not a bad indicator. Is it dark for copper . Probably not. But its not a bad way of looking at it. In terms of production, its fairly well to product across the world. Caroline weve seen the dollar come down this week. Are we starting to see the u. S. Dollar and will that actually start to help some of these commodities, and indeed, actual prices of these metals . Yeah, well, that question begets another question. Obviously its not an accident that the dollar has kind of leveled a bit as the market has moved to price out further increases in u. S. Interest rates. So weve probably, absent the bullish number today on jobs or in the next few weeks, we shouldnt really expect to see much of a change in kind of dollar sentiment for the time being, but i would say, you know, its not just u. S. Interest rates or u. S. Monetary policy, which actually is driving the dollar. Tom showed a chart before, which was about flows coming into the United States, and, you know caroline well flow . Given what we think we know, which is not that really about what funds are actually doing in terms of asset selling, liquidity, the exodus of capital, a trillion dollars of capital is left in emerging markets, so thats one huge bubble thats basically gone pop. And, you know, i would expect i still would expect the dollar to be, you know, somewhere i dont think its in the foothills of a sevenyear ascent, but i think its its kind of halfway up the mountain. I think its got a ways to go. Tom were going to talk about that later in the hour. George magnus was at the plaza accord a couple of years ago. Were going to continue with mr. M magnus. Thank you so much from Bloomberg News. In our next hour on the american job economy, she nailed the Federal Reserve call. Well speak to ellen about the spirit of investment in america that creates jobs. This jobs day, stay with us all morning, bloomberg surveillance. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance, jobs day. Caroline hyde in london. Im tom keene in new york. With us this morning, bill and ellen on radio. Well have bill gross, i believe that will be simulcast worldwide. And jim glass setting the table for us in the 8 00 hour. Right now, a smart morning must read. Thanks very much. This is coming out of bloomberg views editorial board, writing a piece last night focusing on Hillary Clintons side of the debate. This is what she had to say, take a look im out here every day saying im going to shut them down, im going jail them if they should be jailed. Tom republicans . Talking about the financials, the big banks right there. Its interesting, in this editorial piece, we point out that Hillary Clinton took 9. 7 Million Dollars in speaking fees back in 2013, lot from banks and investment firms. 675,000 of that, tom, was from three speeches to Goldman Sachs itself. Tom i dont mind the speaking fees. It drives me nuts about the speaking fees. But she was a senator from wall street, am i right . You know it as well as we all do. Are we really not surprised by this . Shes also strike to strike a tone against Bernie Sanders, who has been coming out and about basically head to head right now. Tom we have this bar chart in the wall street journal, lays out the securities focus. But i dont think anybody, including in any state in the nation, is surprised that shes a senator from wall street. Right, not surprised, just looking at this, 14. 3 million so super p. A. C. Contributions from securities and investments. Tom Caroline Hyde is with us this morning. Caroline, this is shocking that a senator from wall street is going after wall street. Caroline come, its banker bashing. Weve had that here for years. After all the bank bashing, you then have tony blair going to work for j. P. Morgan as an advisor, you have gordon brown going to pimco. It seems to be slightly a lovehate relationship, shall we say, in the banking community. Tom gordon brown replaced bill gross at pimco . Caroline im not sure hes managing too much money, but hes certainly an advisor. Tom im glad you brought that up, thank you so much. The silliness continues in New Hampshire w. All due respect with coverage on that, through friday and into the weekend as well. On bloomberg surveillance next, jane foley, without question my story of the week is a stronger japanese yen on this jobs day from new york and london, bloomberg surveillance. Tom one thing showing the same shot every morning, you get to see what the sun does. Its february. There is more daylight. A gorgeous view of hong kong with a little bit of daylight in their early friday evening. We welcome all of you from asia to bloomberg surveillance. Jobs day in america. Lots of global news. Right now, lets catch up on if the first word news. Good morning. The stage was left crowded, but the tone was more intense in the latest president ial debate. In New Hampshire last night, Bernie Sanders sparred oneonone with Hillary Clinton for the very first time. He criticized her once again for taking donations and speaking fees from big banks. Mrs. Clinton angrily denied that shes beholden to wall street. Secretary clinton squrks enough is enough. If youve got something to say, say it directly. But you will not find that i ever changed a view or a vote because of any donations that i ever received. And i have stood up and i have represented my constituents to the best of my ability, and im very proud of that. Mrs. Clinton is far behind sanders in New Hampshire polls heading into the states primary next tuesday. The u. K. Is taking steps to prevent the spread of the zick avirus. Airlines must spray insecticide inside their planes, currently being done on flights leaving countries infected by malaria. Sued vabe fighting Islamic State in syria, according to a spokesman for saudiled forces. He told the tv the saudis will provide Ground Troops to battle Islamic State. And while the emotions build towards super bowl 50 this sunday, the only thing some bay area residents are feeling is anger. Though the game will be played some 40 miles south of san francisco, the event will still cost the city an estimated 5 million. Residents complained that while it is a boon for businesses, costs for cleanup will come out of taxpayers pockets. It will draw around 160 Million Viewers around the world being more than 100 million in the u. S. Alone, where its always the most watched tv show of the year. Also, by the world cup, the other Football Team last time by about one billion people. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2,400 journalists. Tom now we give you the miracle of the two people that know least about the super bowl here with me. I mean, ive never even seen carolina play, to be honest up yeah, i grew up as a fan of the washington redskins. Im from virginia. Tom lets have a moment of silence for you. Yeah, we know how that works out. But its interesting how much money is going into this. Tom 5 million a pop, right . Per ticket . Yeah, per ad, yeah n. Terms of the amount that people are buying in tickets, 8,000 for a zpad son that i was talking about yesterday on air. Amazing money. Tom unbelievable. A little bit more intelligent discussion on this on Bloomberg Radio later with Michael Mckee, diehard broncos fan. Right now we need to turn to Foreign Exchange. Without question for me, the shock and awe of a stronger yen this week. Shes given us this terrific value, jane foley joins us now. Jane, is the push of yen by the market rolling over from that chart on the way to 115 . Is that a test that the bank of japan will have to go ever more egative . In the e. C. B. , the yen is currency. And basically the market is short these aggressively as if getting the trade, and right now the market doesnt want to get involved in the trade because its too rich for volatility and risk is not strong enough. So really, very difficult for the e. C. B. And the bank of scombreap to try to weaken their currencies. Tom what lesson is the bank of japan learned from the Swiss National banks effort to weaken the swiss franc . Jane well, again, the bank of japan has been looking at the s p and saying, well, theyre doing it, but really has the s p been that successful . Certainly theyve had some success. Last summer, for instance, we heard that well as a safe haven. Anyone whos been to switzerland over the last few years will know that the swiss franc is really overvalued, so the s p, perhaps a great example, where they are trying to weaken the currency. Caroline tom brought it up perfectly, kicking off with the bank of japan, and im fascinated with why analysts such as yourself potentially see the yen actually weakens longer term. The calls are 123 for the yen. Whats going to happen there to ctually send it to that level . Jane what were seeing right now, the market is repricing expectations about the fed. Of course, that has weakened the u. S. Dollar, thats been the big theme this year. Thats played in to the yen too. You got to watch yourself. Theres a positive carry on the u. S. Dollar, so how far are the markets going to sell off this dollar . Thats why i think that the movement in the yen really will be limited, because the bank of japan are pushing against this with a negative rate. And the e. C. B. Are pushing against this, and therefore, i think the market will run out of steam and short the dollar at some point soon. Caroline and what do you think about the calls at the moment . Youve got less than 50 probability were going to get a hate hike this year. What do you still think will happen this year . Jane, are you seeing one, two, zero . Jane we tend to be more we never thought the fed was going hike before december, and even then, it was probably credibility reasons. So weve had a call twice this year, but to be honest, in the last few weeks, the data suggests there are down side risks to that, so maybe once, maybe twice, but i think the next data over the next couple of months is going to be really key in trying to in how far they can go. Tom let me give a question to you that i would give to George Magnus. Weve got these people, and youre doing a much more of a tactical exercise. What is the likelihood of Dollar Strength to see the 199 owes 2002 dollar and give us plaza accord tension. Is that part of your thinking . One year out or three years later . Jane not just yet. And again, it very much depends on how the fed plays it. If the fed dont do much in terms of Interest Rate hikes, it should try to water down the dollar spent. But really, we do need to look at the u. S. Data. There is great strength in terms of u. S. Employment creation, but were not seeing it through right now in inflation. So i think right now, the dollar is sort of ok, but the fed really do need to manage that strength Going Forward from here. Tom thank you for the perspective as always. Shes been such a value to bloomberg surveillance. Ms. Foley is with robobank. George, its beginning to percolate. Talking about elements of a plaza accord. Others not mincing any words about it. Robbie feldman from Morgan Stanley i thought was stunning earlier in the week. Are we getting near a discussion of leaders getting together to stop Dollar Strength . Eorge no, i dont think so. At the moment, theres a chairmanship of the g20 in china now. I dont think the g20 really has it to be a coherent ecision making body. I mean, remember that when the accord happened, the dollar was pretty much getting on, although that dollar bull run was getting almost to a six or seven years old. The previous one, the dollar bull run during the period was also about seven years old so. This one is actually much younger. As i said before, it isnt exactly foot hill, but halfway up the mountain. I think it can go either. I think it would have to go substantially further because there was kind of an International Outcry or the u. S. Calls for it basically had an outcry about it. Tom this is what you do. Bring up the accord chart again, anthony, if you would. This is fun. This is a long chart, which means percentage changes there. The red line is the move in the accord in the 1980s. The yellow arrow is the dollar. And then you bring the arrows over and compare the latest dollar move, and you can see were really getting close, and were nowhere near yet, as George Magnus says, to the Dollar Strength that we saw in the 1980s. George magnus, how alone is china with the supposed managed low . George well, theres a huge amount of chatter, for lack of a better phrase, going on about management flow, they should let it float. In know, they cant stand the way of capital flight. Look, nobody knows for sure whats going on inside the peoples bank of china, peoples bank of china itself is only the organization for state council. Foreign exchange decisions that affect the whole world are being made by people who are not experts in Foreign Exchange or in macro economics necessarily. So my instinct is that their instinct in china, the first thing is to control, to be in ontrol, not to lose control. Before china floats much further, i think they will opt for capital controls. Tom George Magnus with us, terrific perspective from u. B. S. Its all part of the debate, the nuances of the debate were trying to give you on bloomberg surveillance. We do that with alan kruger of princeton. That barely describes his capabilities on the American Labor economy. The former chairman of the president s council of economic advisors giving us perspective this morning. Its jobs day. Its bloomberg surveillance. Caroline im Caroline Hyde with tom keene in new york. It is a green day for the stoxx 600, but a volatile day. Lets catch up with all the business news. Thanks very much. Toyota has raised its earnings forecast and profited record for japanese companies. Sales of toyotas rav4 and lexus luxury cars are soaring. Analysts forecast the largest automaker will make about 26 billion in profit in the year ending in march. Also, in germany, it may be a sign a global slowdown is hurting europes largest economy. Factory orders fell more than expected in december. Orders were down. 7 . That comes after an increase back in november. And shares of linkedin are getting hammered in premarket trading. The professional networking site has lost a third of its value since yesterdays forecast. Linkedin predicted a year of full revenue growth. And that is the Bloomberg Business flash. Tom it begins our movers here on linkedin. Such a help at evercore, he minces no words. He takes ebitda growth down the income statement from 43 down to 23 . That is shocking. Hes adamant that is facebook, google and amazon and away from linkedin. I mean, this is a deeply troubled story. Right, just looking at premarket, it was down 30 . One thing that im interested in looking at is the price target cut from 225 to 155. And thats where the next 12 years, and right now were at about 147 or so, thats a huge cut. They have a hold on the stock as well. Tom its one guys opinion, links the fall were seeing in twitter possibly over to linkedin. You wonder, after the Marissa Mayer interview this week which, full disclosure, i was shocked by the interviews i dont think they took this playbook on the west coast. They dont they dont have the same rule book that other companies would. A lot of people would say theyre operating in their own little bubble. With yahoo , its all about the user group. People just arent going there. Tom would you let him know theres a sursur bubble . Lets go to Caroline Hyde. The metals are doing well. Caroline im going for green, because Anglo American, check it out, up 12 this morning. It is on its biggest twoday rally on record. Anglo american, hardly any miners are down today. Why . Its dollar weakness. Dollar weakness really started to build the miners suddenly picking themselves out of the doldrums, got perspective, and Anglo American significantly down over the course of 12 months, but still theyre managing to show optimistic notes here, and clearly keep your eye on all those liners. Tom maybe we call it a dead dollar bounce, technically theyve got a lot of work to do to get the stability, let alone escape whats been a bear market. It is jobs day after the report at 8 30, a conversation with one William Gross of Janus Capital. Youll hear this worldwide on Bloomberg Radio and bloomberg television. In our next hour, bill and ellen, stay with us. Tom what it is a jobs day without checking green on the screen . Europe better than good this morning. 10year yield in, in, in. The euro was at 1. 12 yesterday, still elevated. Nymex crude at 32. Dollar weak, commodities do better. Lets go to a smart quote to get tout reality that this is a sevenday week business weekend. You got to work through the weekend if youre part of bloomberg surveillance. Reserves fell to 3. 2 trillion. That would exceed a record 108 billion decline in december, which brought lastiers total to more than a half a trillion dollars. Thats from Bloomberg News and our asian team. That gets to you sunday this week. George magnus, weve had a couple of people tell us this is a big deal. Why is it when china reports their reserves . George well, its a big deal because ive been told, you know, last summer, chinas reserves were generally, you know, seen to be the product of economic success and prowess and a status symbol. Certainly in china it is. What we now know is that china has experienced huge capital outflows. I mean, last year, the reserves fell by 500 billion over 500 billion last year. Theres another for economist predictions. And what its basically telling us is that the currencies are under pressure. We know that. And capital flight, which is something which is very, very difficult for the chinese to deal with, unless they really stamp down very firmly on capital control. Tom u. B. S. Did Landmark Research five years ago, 10 years ago, on the fiction that were the chinese cities. Do you have a confidence of whats in the piggy bank . George well, we kind of know we sort of know at bit about what sort of holdings they have about euro denominations, government bonds and so on. And so a lot of the bulk of that 3. 2 trillion will be liquid assets. Some will not that be liquid, may not be, you know, transferable into, you know, cash if they needed it that quickly. But theres also a kind of prudential limit on how far they can drop. You know, they need to have a certain number of months worth of import, and u to have something in the piggy bank. You cant run them dry. So what we the reserves themselves arent fiction. They are the product of earning years and years and years of current account balances. But now the worm is beginning to turn, and its going to be more than interesting just to see where the chinese government, chinese authorities will physically draw the line, where they feel that theyre not willing to have reserves to drop. I mean, they may have no choice in the end, but certainly they will not reserves to drop below the critical level, which i would say is not too far away from here. Caroline how far will they allow it to drop . How much are you still worrying about it overall, depreciation, devaluation, whatever you call it, because theyve been dipping this week to support it. George yeah, my feeling is that they dont like the volatility. They dont like the kind of markets having kind of control over their currency. And they are worried about the capital flight. So i think they will be you know, they may allow the yawn rate to drop gently against the u. S. Dollar provided that the level against the basket that theyre looking at is a kind of reference, more or less stable. But it looked like the yuan, they were losing control of the yuan, i think they would slap on capital controls again to try to keep it stable. In the end, if china has, you know, a harder landing or a financial crisis, which is quite possible over the next couple of years, the yuan may go down, you know, anyway. But i think they will resist it. Caroline a lot of analysts are talking about a recession fueled by china. Well talk about that in a bit, but talk to us about that, will we see a recession in chin a . You talked about peeling back whether the revembs true. Are the numbers that were getting printed true in terms of growth . George its possible that the hard landing has landed. Some people think that chinese growth may nobody more than about 3 or 4 . Its impossible to verify, and we dont know what models people use to calculate these things. Its clearly not 7 , but its probably not 3 , otherwise wed see much more social stress and unemployment. But i think china is going to cause the world to go into recession, no. Its an ago congratulation, but its not the cause. Tom george, lets spruce a chart were going to use on bloomberg surveillance this morning. This is the europe Unemployment Rate and the United States Unemployment Rate. Im sorry, george, its just a stark difference, the differential back 20 years, and then they meet within the crisis, and then the clearing of markets and the improvement in the United States. What does america need to do to sustain that good news and employ people with higher wages . Wheres the productivity coming from . George gosh, if we knew the answer to that tom agree. We dont know the answer, do we . George no, and we dont know, to be honest, where tomorrows high productivity jobs, where theyll theyll be, but how theyll defuse through the economy, so the lowpaid sector, job security, these kinds of things, people on strange contracts and zero or parttime hours and so on, so, you know, there are, as you know well, there are floors even in the u. S. Labor market where the Unemployment Rate is low. There are flaws in the labor market, which we dont fully understand. I think, i believe that, you know, lot of this has to do with a long healing process. You know, from the financial crisis, which in 2007, i thought it might take 10 years if were lucky, and were sort of a little bit over halfway along, and also, of course, structural changes, technology, youve covered it, robotics and so on. Tom george, were going to leave it there this morning. Thank you for getting us started on jobs day. He is George Magnus of u. B. S. Bill gross and jim glassman will join us later am but first, we get started with citigroup, arguably the best short sharp note in support of negative Interest Rates. And then a conversation with Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley, her call on the fed. Stay with us. Bloomberg surveillance. Tom it is jobs day in america. The backdrops global slowdown at negative Interest Rates. Later, bill gross and jim glassman. Next, Willem Buiter of citigroup. Ellen zentner of Morgan Stanley on janet yellen and stanley fischers uncertainty. Buiter, american football. Money will be mentioned. Good morning, everyone. This is bloomberg surveillance , live from our World Headquarters in new york. It is friday, february 5. I am tom keene with Caroline Hyde. Are you into the super bowl at al . Caroline there is a big ballgame, but for us it is rugby. Tom you are into Six Nations Rugby . Caroline i have to say, who wouldnt be . Now, someone who knows a little bit more about , ramyper bowl than me inocencio. Iny it was the first debate New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders. Bernie sanders says he is the democrat who will represent the people. Bernie sanders our campaign is the campaign of the people, by the people, and for the people. Secretary clinton represents the establishment. I represent ordinary americans who are not all that in an heard with the establishment you are not all that enamored with the establishment. Hillary Clinton Bernie sanders is the only person who would characterize me, a woman running to be the first woman president , as exemplifying the establishment. Also battled about paid talks by Goldman Sachs. Marco rubio is closing the gap with donald trump. Ae poll found that about third of likely Republican Voters are still undecided. Also, a u. N. Human rights panel says Julian Assange should be freed. The panel ruled that he has been arbitrarily detained by the u detained in sweden. He would be extradited. Two new York City Police officers are respected to survive after being shot overnight. It happened while they were patrolling a Public Housing complex in the bronx. Detectives say the government killed himself after the the gunman killed himself after the attack. Obama has proposed a 10 a barrel oil tax. It is unlikely to go anywhere in congress. News 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 bureaus around the world. I am Ramy Inocencio. 10 on 30 a barrel . I am lost. Ramy a 25 increase. Will people want to do this . 20, 30, 40 . Tom that is a scary thought. I want to pound through this and get to Willem Buiter as quickly as we can. , nymex uphe screen one dollar weakness. Next screen, please. He vix really going nowhere the dow adding it on, distant from record highs. The yen is the story of the week. We will get to that shock with Willem Buiter. Stronger yen. Caroline . Caroline ending the week on a high for the stoxx 600. On the day of swiss strength, reserves rising to a record once again, and seems to be because of the weakness of the last 12 months. Look at that particular pair of the last 12 months. Gold up. 2 of 1 . Tom i am glad you brought up the swiss franc. Many of the parties in play. Over to bloomberg right now the world coming to an end oh, no, we are all going to die. Maybe not. Maybe that is about flows or anticipated flows into america. One of the themes, the curve flattening. This is the spread that everybody looks at. This is my knowledge of super bowl right there, going straight down. Ok, we are thrilled with our guests, this jobs day. Bill gross and jim glassman joining us here in a bit. Willem buiter without question of the most Important Note on negative rates over the weekend. We will get to that any moment, but first we need to speak to the mystery of jobs formation. You have really thought about this at the London School of economics for years. Day in america. The Unemployment Rate is pretty darned good. We are all miserable, and we are miserable because of productivity. Explain why american productivity is so weak right now. Measuredell, productivity is weak because the u. S. Is bringing back into the labor force who are either unemployed or detached from the labor force. As the british would say, in cricket you are playing your tailenders. Ramy, it is possible that you and i know less about cricket than the super bowl. Willem i just wanted to get that in. After years of low capital formation, acrosstheboard. Items of excellence. Tom i love that. I have to write that down. Innovation is as active as it ever was, but to get it to show up in the data, you need to embody innovation. Tom bring up the chart here of two americas. A lot of us are not aware of the most basic of job charts. There is the guy we are going to, the Unemployment Rate 5 . There it is. The cyclical move of unemployment, the crisis, a miracle have we how we have come down. We are so miserable as a nation. Witnessing our politics. We cannot disperse that technology to society. Why is that . Thatm and to the extent it gets dispersed, it gets dispersed unequally. So there is a problem even to the extent that productivity is growing. It is growing overwhelmingly at the top end of distribution. Middle america is not materially better off. Caroline hyde, jump in here with Willem Buiter, please. Looking at there i sm, the manufacturing data. The employment part to those particular data points. It is not looking pretty. Are we about to return into not quite such a strong market when it comes to the u. S. . Willem we will see. Data is ment way, there is a concern if the under indicators if the other indicators are more forwardlooking. That thehere is risk u. S. Economy is softening. I do not think i have heard the word recession quite yet for the u. S. , but there is a risk of a slowdown that seems to be underway, not just driven by external demand and distractions. It is domestically driven through excessive corporate leverage and capex. Tom i want to go back to Caroline Hyde. Can you reaffirm the likelihood of global recession . Recessionll, a global it is a Global Growth recession. We are close to that. Of 2015, ifquarter you correct the chinese data for the obvious factor that is in there, you get about 2 Global Growth. Ihat is well below think that is as close to the recession as you can get. Tom caroline, in the econometrics undergrad course at factor, the fudge factor is one of the detestable ideas. Pick it up, please. Caroline talking more about the dollars we have seen some dollar weakness this week, down 2. 5 . How much is that going to be a relief coming to the fed right now . How much do they want the market to tone down on it, or how much do they want to stick by four hikes for the rest of the year, or will they change their talk . Willem i am sure they will change their talk. They are probably slightly regrettable about having talked so tough in december. I would not say that you are seeing the current cyclical high for the cycle, but the weakness that is already discernible versus what is expected late , it is worrying about domestic development, further external drags on growth. And i think they are sitting on their hands in doing it well for the foreseeable future. Tom give us the dollar call for citigroup. Broader dollar call right now . Willem in the short, the dollar is likely to weaken somewhat because the fed is still moving the markethikes, and is catching up with that. But there is no doubt that risk, emerging markets, all in Monetary Policy mode japan is expansionary. The ecb is more expansionary. The fact of the bank of england talking about rates, there is no doubt about the longerterm trend will be to weaken. Tom Willem Buiter is here to give us perspective, and we will go international with him in a bit. In the 8 00 hour, we focus on the American Economy. Billa conversation with gross of Janus Capital group he has been more than critical of washington in this jobs recovery. Look for that at a 30 on Bloomberg Radio and television. Stay with us. Tom very good. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. It is a data check, a jobs day data check. There is our data check for this morning. Not much going on, a churn as we 30 this morning for h 30 this morning. He was Ramy Inocencio. Rav 4sales of toyotas suv and luxury cars are soaring. The automaker will reach 26 billion a year ending in march. Be paid ton will settle a classaction case. Ius bar net income was down for bnp paribas 50 from two years ago. That is the latest Bloomberg Business flash. Tom we do economics, finance, investment, and International Relations, but sometimes there is a scandal we have to look at. My morning mustread today is from shelly banjo. I love her to death. She does not know what she is talking about. Tom i cannot get through this, it is so long. We go to Ramy Inocencio for perspective on this. Is she nuts . Dunkin donuts is the best coffee on the planet. Ramy i would say Dunkin Donuts is better than starbucks. A beginners coffee, breaking in your palate. We go to Willem Buiter. Would you like to weigh in on this ya . Dunkin donuts or starbucks . Willem i am a Dunkin Donuts man from way back, but mainly for the donuts. Tom talking about Dunkin Donuts. Do they have Dunkin Donuts in london . Willem yes, they do. In my neighborhood, there is a flourishing Dunkin Donuts. It is right across from a starbucks, actually. Tom very good. We will have shelly banjo on to defend her call. Caroline, please weigh in here. Are you going to have Dunkin Donuts while you watch rugby . Caroline when you are over here next, we can go to the donuts cabinet. I do not know if they have great coffee there, it is just about the donuts. Tom road trip when we are there, to Dunkin Donuts. Thank you so much to tell about for your perspective thank you so much to Willem Buiter for your perspective. Lastutiful essay on japan night, or maybe the night before. We need to catch up with david. This jobs day, stay with us on economics, investment. And Dunkin Donuts. It is bloomberg surveillance. Tom expect delays. No, not on the jobs report within the darkness of the new york snow. Its sort of snuck up on us. Pay attention to airplane traffic on the east coast this morning. It is inclement in new york city. We welcome all of you to bloomberg surveillance. Willem buiter is with us. Stanley fischer made very clear at the council on foreign relations, he has been surprised at how they have worked. They have done better than good. What happens if japan and other nations go even more negative . Willem well, they are likely to do so. It will ask further on liquid asset prices. Especially on the Exchange Rate. Through the Exchange Rate on stock prices, on longer yields. It is just another very conventional Monetary Policy. Tom what is the unexpected consequence that we get out of something that is not in the economic textbooks . Only the economic textbooks only work if there is no limit as to how low Interest Rates can go. Tom have we tested yet, bringing negative rates in have we tested that threshold or critical point where you get a jump in condition if you bring a negative Exchange Rates . Willem it is still not happen. Y carry cost of currency insurance, storage, safety the debt is really more than 75 basis points, i do not know. But we will find out. Tom caroline . Think about the club of 5 at the moment, the boj joining the swedish. Are the current ones going to keep on digging lower . Willem it really depends on how the economy is going to evolve. If the u. S. Were to seriously slow down, which is not an essential projection but is a risk, then clearly it will go negative, despite the value of many market funds. At some point you have to buy the bullet. But if it does not happen, it could be several years before they get their bank. Likewise, the bank of england. Chinak of the large ones, is tom you think it is possible the bank of england may be forcing negative rates . Willem at some point, undoubtedly. We are in a world where policy u. S. In the u. K. And the are very likely to go above 2 . Tom i love Caroline Hydes phrase there, digging a hole. It is the smartest thing i have heard about negative Interest Rates. If you dig a hole, something has to occur before you fill it in. Willis the event that clear markets so we can get back to centralbank normality . This may be centralbank normality. If Interest Rates remain zero, negative, and if you have trouble achieving the policy target for inflation, then on average the policy rate will not be above 2 . Typical pigtwotrough cycle, it is certain that in the cycle whenever it comes, the fed will be zero bound and the fed will be likely to go below it than further expand the Balance Sheet and follow japan. Tom week ago for another 40 minutes with you. Is this the most fascinating time . None of this is in your textbooks, right . Willem certainly not. This is a world that we did not know we could live in. Tom i love that a world that we did not know we could live in. Willem buiter, of the London School of economics. With citigroup as well. Futures churning on a jobs day. Coming up, Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley she was way out front in suggesting a delay in centralbank action. She moved that around a little bit, but, boy, has she been something. Forget about 2015. Look into this year and next year. Stay with us. This is bloomberg surveillance. Tom are attempts to give you economics, finance, investment, and International Relations on a jobs day in the American Economy. First word news with ramy innocency of. The latest democratic president ial debate in New Hampshire last night. Bernie sanders sparred oneonone with Hillary Clinton for the very first time. He criticized her for taking donations and speaking fees from the big banks. Mrs. Clinton angrily denied that she is beholden to wall street. Hillary clinton enough is enough. Say,u have something to say it directly. But you will not find that i have ever changed of view or a vote because of any donation that i ever received. And i have stood up and represented my constituents to the best of my ability, and i am very proud of that. [applause] clinton is far behind sanders in polls heading to New Hampshire next tuesday. Inpokesman for saudi forces yemen said the saudis would isisde troops to battle militants. The prospect of a north Korean Missile test is prompting reroute. O launching of a satellite would violate longstanding resolutions. Britain is taking steps to stem the spread of the zika virus. Flights heading to affected countries will be sprayed with insecticide. Super bowl 50 on sunday though the game will be played 40 miles south of san francisco, the event will cost the city an estimated 5 million. That cleanup for security cleanup and security will cost the taxpayers. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 bureaus around the world, i am Ramy Inocencio. Tom somebody is going to disneyland. Mitsubishitokyo doing wonderful work on the American Economy. Joining Morgan Stanley, she had the fed call over the last 18 months. Ellen zentner is going to disneyland in the game of market economics. Wonderful to have you here on jobs day. I want you to dovetail your out of consensus gloom on the American Economy with where the dots are going on the fed. Here are 2. 4 you are under 2 . Do you presume the dots will come down . Yes, and what we have seen is the dots have been perpetually coming down at major meetings when they have to revise their forecasts. You mentioned that 2. 4 expectation for growth this year. They are going to have to bring those forecasts down. We will see the forecast come down in march, and the dots come down yet again. I will tell you that many others are starting to join our camp of dropping their growth estimates for this year. Tom what does that do for fed ramification . Dialog like with a the United Kingdom, where we are talking about 2017 . Ellen i think for Monetary Policy makers, they like to have full faith in their outlook. When you have a lot of volatility and this apparent slowdown in the domestic economy that we have had, that leads to a lot of uncertainty about that outlook. If they feel they are in this situation of perpetually revising the forecasts, that will potentially delay rate hikes. But they do not want to make that decision. The fed does not want to make that decision before each of those major meetings happen. They really want to make it on a meetingbyeating basis. Tom is the market out in front of the fed following . 2 10,at i mean with the does that indicate true recession, and will the fed catch up with the market . Ellen i think that the market has overdone it. There are a whole host of scenarios, including very dire ones. They are never going to see i to their the fed because expectations are built around the baseline that armageddon does not happen. We will end up somewhere in between. I think the Market Sentiment is disconnected from fundamentals. The economy is not as bad as that market is telling us it thinks it is. Yet it is not as good as the fed thinks it is. The two will meet in the middle. The futures curve has got to come up. Tom we are not disconnected from london. Caroline hyde is with us this morning. , tom. Ne thanks we certainly see the selloff of the dollar this week, down 2. 5 . That suddenly gives breathing space to the fed. Pleased bying to be this move . Is much of an obstruction Dollar Strength to where they see the futures being . Ellen that is an important question of the moment. Based on changes in the dollar, just through this past week, already that dictates that they are probably going to miss on their inflation estimates. There is a lot of volatility. The effects on the economy are lagged from dollar changes and that precludes them from raising rates in march. The dollar has come off, and that can give them comfort if they maintain that lower level, some more stability in the dollar, that perhaps they can still maintain the tightening bias Going Forward. They have to certainly be relieved that the dollar has given up some of its games. But the damage has already been done leading up to now. You say the markets have gotten ahead of how bad the economy is going to be. How much our company is going to be reading into this as well . You have been talking about how much investment is needed, and that has been dragging down the overall growth perspective. Our Companies Holding back on investment right now . We seem to be seeing signals of that because of volatility. Ellen certainly that can affect jobs numbers. That part of the Human Capital investment. Think back to last summer when market volatility was high and we had angst over Global Growth, kicked off again by fears around china. We had two backtoback months of weak job growth. Those delayed hiring plans because when the vix jumps, it changes unemployment. , and jobs took off again. Is the confidence there right now with the outlier call that you have . Ellen i think this is what i hate this saying but it is what keeps me up at night. The ability for markets to produce this selffulfilling prophecy. We have a sound fundamental domestic economy. It is slowing. This is a mature point in the business cycle, and that is ok. Market sentiment is disconnected from that fundamental strength in the domestic economy. And volatility builds the economy. You can map the vix against payroll growth, retail sales growth. We do not like volatility. We cannot make decisions. Tom how do you dovetail this into adam parkers world . Thetake the growth lack of growth in manufacturing that you see, how do you dovetail 1. 8 in the equity market . Ellen adam is encouraged that he is not seeing ceo hubris. He is still not seeing that. But even the boolean adam parker even the italy and even parker ent adam they are getting punished for missing. That is not a good environment. It speaks to the amount of uncertainty in the business backdrop at the moment. With us. N zentner we will look at the American Economy in a moment. Coming up on Bloomberg Radio, a conversation with alan krueger this jobs day, at princeton. We will speak of americas inequality. This is bloomberg surveillance on jobs day. Caroline welcome back. This is bloomberg surveillance. We bring you now news on the european politics front. David cameron met with Martin Schultz yesterday to discuss the new ks demands for reforms the u. K. Posten as for reforms. The pretrade agreement between the European Union and the United States of america would create the biggest economic area of the world. 800 million, the two biggest economies in the world. And the United Kingdom, i think they should stay in. Caroline the u. K. Should stay in. Many are calling for that as the talk of exit swirls and as the talk of brexit swirls around the United Kingdom. Tom, lets take it out to you in new york. Tom this matters now. We do it with Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley, joining us today. Lets do the american job economy, the two americas that are out there. Why are we so miserable with a 5 Unemployment Rate . A problem ofis perception. Consumer confidence is rising. Where it is rising is for the lower income groups where we have minimum wage increases and where we have been creating the majority of jobs in lowincome areas. We had an explosive growth in jobs in the Fourth Quarter. We are probably going to get act some of that explosive growth in the first order. But if we can get 150,000 today, i will be happy with that. That is enough to keep the Unemployment Rate under pressure. That is enough to cause the fed to say we are still getting a little bit of improvement each month in the labor market. I think that fears are overblown, but i do not think fears are unwarranted. But they feel overblown. We have to watch job growth and see, does it flow. Tom Service Sector inflation we spoke to David Rosenberg about this yesterday if Service Sector inflation is up along with goods inflation being down, what does that signal about the labor economy . Does that signal a tight Service Sector . Are seeinge we Service Prices rising, it is not related to the labor market, it is related to the Housing Market and pipeline pressures and the fact that more folks are moving out what choosing to rent, and the rental vacancy rates are so low. Tom it is real estate noise . Ellen it is kids and older age groups that downsize, having to pay way too much in rent. Ofnomists relieve that 30 disposable income applied to rent is a burden. We have got more than 50 of renters in the u. S. Paying well more than 30 of their disposable income toward rent. It is a significant burden. It is a drag, and almost like no of millennials moving out and choosing to pay such burdensome rents. Tom this matters now. That is so important what you just said. Say the statistic again. Ellen this is out of a recent study showing that more than 50 of renters in the u. S. Are paying well more than 30 of their disposable income toward rent. Economists believe that the 30 threshold is a burden or in you should not pay more than 30 of your disposable income. Tom what does that do to consumption . Ellen it robs what you can spend elsewhere. And we can see that in a lot of the numbers. Retail vacancy rates are at multidecade lows, so even though we are building money family even though we are building multifamily Properties Like apartments, rental pressures will remain. That is a significant part of domestic Service Prices in the u. S. Tom i want to go to the auto industry. You have been great at following it. 18 Million Units even mary bar is a little bit shaky about that. As long as households remain healthy, we will need more vehicles. We do not think that 18 million annual units is the peak. Psychologically that is the barrier, but demographically we can get past that. What we have been watching is the rise of shares of sales borrowers, and that has risen quite a bit, but historically it is fairly low. We also think we have not quite hit the top for that sub prime borrowing, either. The labor market continues to improve. Auto sales will as well. Tom Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley. This matters now. Coming up on Bloomberg Radio and bloomberg television, bill gross after the jobs report. We will talk to him about the American Labor economy, and much more of what we are seeing globally with labor with negative Interest Rates. In london, in new york, bloomberg surveillance. The lowestill have ratings for the super bowl in the nation. The redskins are not in the super bowl. Washington does not care. Washington, d. C. Now a forex report. Lets get to it. We spoke to Willem Buiter about the end he perceives negative rates as the medicine is applied. Right now you need the medicine of a Bloomberg Business flash with Ramy Inocencio. Ramy could a permanent play date be ahead for two of the worlds Biggest Toy Companies . Mattel was approached last year by hasbro. Ger musiciansthing for hurt by streaming music. Sony and warner says artists will share in any windfall from Services Like spotify. And shares of linkedin are following in the premarket. The professional networking site has lost almost a third of its its since yesterday, forecast predicting a year of slower revenue growth. Tom shocking. Yhen you say slash, the slash. A complete readjustment, recalibration in the Silicon Valley business. Best chart. S single Ellen Zentner with Morgan Stanley is with us. Thanks to Michael Mckee of bloomberg surveillance for this great idea inflationadjusted gasoline. A gallon of gas, and adjusted for inflation, and we are back to the early 1990s. That red circle, what a gallon of gas costs. Absolutely amazing. Thanks to mike again for the free lunch. Nobody spent is, the gas savings. You do not agree . Ellen i do not agree. That is an excellent chart because that has been a huge boost to households. Who gets the biggest boost . It is the lowest income groups who do not save and have a high marginal propensity. They spent it. Rivaledr was the most year the most traveled year, vehicle travel. Some of the other doubledigit growth categories luggage. Hotel occupancy rates were at a decade high. We did a lot of traveling. Restaurant sales, through the roof. The gas savings got spent, but thepuzzle is, why does personal savings rate go up as well . When the wealthy the wealthy do not like it when the stock market loses value. It is the wealthy in the u. S. Who determine the personal savings rate. They are the savers. The top income quintile represents the top of all spending. When they change their habits, it matters. So when the wealthy stop spending, we see the personal savings rate rise. Our kimberly greenberger, our retail equity analyst, calls it the luxury recession. To see thene, results of retail yesterday, david wilson was going through them on Bloomberg Radio, on kohls and a few others. Caroline, jump in here on this idea of gasoline. Caroline we have seen an ugly quarter when it comes to retail. Then you are saying you have a lower call on whether we will see economic growth, 1. 5 likely this year, lower than consensus. ,ut the goodwill from low oil already spent, is that why it is so much lower . Speak to saysne i oil will play into the economy and give it a boost. Ellen i think one of the things we have seen is that in the past oil has been unambiguously good for the u. S. Economy. What we have this time is what has been the fastestgrowing capex, and it has taken a major hit. At the same time, it came with a lot of market volatility. Tom lets review your 1. 8 call. We all know and it is ugly. Where is the part that gets you 1. 8 . That gets you to is consumption . Ellen it is not consumption. We cannot blame the president , either, even though we would all like to. We take a supplyside approach. Labor markete a that is growing quickly enough. We do not have productivity that is growing quickly enough. That means our potential growth in the economy is very low, so our 1. 8 growth forecast we think it is growing above. Tom this is so important as we are in the morning in america, looking at 1. 3 . Ramy we are coming out of winter. It is february. What do you think in terms of looking ahead to the next quarter or two in terms of consumption . I would say commodity strategist have an extraordinarily difficult task in trying to figure out where oil prices are going. This is not a demandside issue, it is a suppliedside issue. We can see that demand has been very strong. Weekly gasoline demand went through the roof in 2014 when prices dropped, and it is still rising. Vehicle sales are at record highs. Lower gas prices will spur a lot of activity around travel and dining out and things like that, but that does not help us find a bottom sooner in oil prices because that is a supplyside issue. Tom 15 seconds left. When does the fed act again . Ellen they have no clue. They are saying we will let you know when it is we can do more. We thinkonomy grows as it will, 1. 8 , and in inflation stabilizes, not going further lower, they will move in june. They will move further this year. They will maintain that tightening bias. Tom Ellen Zentner, thank you so much, with Morgan Stanley. Ramy inocencio, thank you for coming in. Caroline hyde, thank you so much, in london as well. Coming up, alan krueger of princeton university. And then bill gross on television, radio, worldwide. It is jobs day. Stay with us. Stephanie did americas job Growth Engine stay around . We will find out. Frances biggest lender is slashing costs to free up capital, and investors his firm pioneered lowcost funds. Now vanguards ceo is seeing a whole industry under the gun. We will be speaking to bill mcnabb in just a moment. Stephanie welcome to a very big day on bloomberg. I am stephanie ruhle. You thought it was jobs numbers . No. David westin is off. Emily chang is here from san francisco. But it is jobs day. The founder of stock tech and our own Bloomberg Intelligence