Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Close 20170123

Is the dollar falls against all major peers. Investors are looking for clues from President Trump on fiscal policy and tax cuts. Mark european equities are trading just under 30 minutes to the end of the monday session. Mpme certainty about the tru regime that is causing a flight to quality. America first, that rhetoric is bringing forth images of protectionism, which is concerning. Stocks are down, these currencies are rising against the dollar. Its a big drop in the dollar byay, sterling up i. 9 . 9 . Commodities and cdf, gold is the ultimate haven, rising today. Choosing the right stocks, heres a question for you, might be easier in the earnings season. This is the degree to which the euro stoxx 50 moves in lockste p. This is the lowest in six years, the degree to which they are moving in lockstep is the lowest. Shares arethat likely to take their cues from earnings results. Rather than external factors. Those predicting equity correlation will remain low. As a fascinating chart, which the bloomberg could show you. Generalite news today, is a big gainer on the stoxx 600, shares up by 4. 5 . It is italys against insurer. Rising on reports that intesa are interested in it. They are considering doing a isl with elians a llianz a possible partner. The transaction could avoid the , according toover the newspaper, like other insurers, generali is struggling to boost confidence. Biggest Lighting Company says its profit margin will widen this year. That announce the return of as much as 300 Million Euros to share rose shareholders. Sales declined, below analyst estimates. Philips lighting announcing a target to return to the Revenue Growth next year, and it says it shares. 1. 0 90 minutes into the trading day, abigail, hows it looking . Abigail looking at the kleins, the s p 500, declines. The dow, s p 500 and nasdaq slightly lower. Now we are looking at noticeable the kleins, noticeable declines. On the uncertainty around the Trump Administration that you were talking about. The interesting thing about intraday volatility, when it builds in this manner, typically it leads to closing volatility. We will have to see that one comes when that comes. The dow is down eight of the last 10 days. Its not down in a huge way, down. 6 . As of last friday, the dow was down two weeks in a row, the first time it has done that since the middle of october. A little bit of a bearish hint to the market. This has put down 20,000 out of mind. G btv 1537. T these the lows of the intraday ranges away from down 20,000. We are about 253 points away 20,000. N 20,000 dow there was a big move down in the morning, its not really showing here. But dow 20,000 is largely out of mind. This is confirmed when you take a look at a haven. You have the vet for the fear gave shooting up 5. 5 . Vix or the fear index shooting up 5. 5 . On the year, 11 of the 16 trading days, that is another radar screen haven, suggesting some investors are looking for a safe haven. All of this is confirmed by the bloomberg the u. S. 10 year , waitingwn about. 6 on the bloomberg dollar index down three days in a row. That uncertainty around trump the you have been talking about. Vonnie another. 6 lower. Abigail doolittle, thank you. Courtney has more from the newsroom. Courtney President Trump is profiting tax cuts, regulation cuts, and what he calls a major board tax. He spoke of breakfast meeting with Business Leaders. Trump were going to be cutting taxes massively. Andboth the middle class for companies. That is massively. We are trying to get it down to anywhere from 15 to 20 . Courtney the president also said his administration thinks it can cut regulations by 75 . Florida senator marco rubio says he will vote for president all trump president Donald Trumps donald nominee. He joins Lindsey Graham and john mccain and saying they will support tillerson, in spite of ongoing concerns about his past dealings with the russian government and president vladimir putin. The Supreme Court rejected an aspeal from taxes it tex to keep its voter id law. The Court Ordered changes before the november election. The Syrian Civil War talks got off to a rocky start in pakistan. A rebel leader and syrian diplomat called the other side terrorists. The u. S. Is attending as an observer. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im courtney donohoe, this is bloomberg. Mark lets get back to the big story out of washington. President trump said to be signing executive orders on trade, withdrawing from the Transpacific Partnership, and reopening negotiations on nafta. It will also meet with theresa may this week. Joining us is Michael Mckee. And in london, Simon Kennedy. Michael, any moment now, we are awaiting executive orders. What is likely to be signed . Michael we dont know. He does seem to be running late on these, according to the white house schedule. Officiallyto withdraw from the Transpacific Partnership. He has been threatening to do that throughout the president of campaign. Hillary clinton said she would do the same thing. It leaves the United States and the United States in a position of not having a formal relationship with 11 other countries Going Forward around the pacific rim. The question that follows from that is if china is pushing its own trade deal, do we see to china the future, or does trump propose some older trait some other trade deal . He is going to start renegotiation on the north rate north america freetrade agreement. The canadians, Prime Minister Justin Trudeaus cabinet is meeting. The white house is sending Jared Kushner to speak to the about what they would like to see in the new negotiation. Mark simon, as donald trump removes the u. S. From the tpp and tries to reorganize nafta, theresa may heads to washington, trying to get some semblance of an agreement on a deal between the two countries. Simon she has to be careful, she cant negotiate trade deals while a member of the eu. She wants a sign from the Trump Administration that bilateral negotiations are the way forward, unlike these that the u. K. Could be at the front of the line from one from the u. S. After the departure from brexit. Vonnie Michael Mckee, we are getting word that democrats enters have introduced a bill to withdraw from tpp. Do we know anything about this bill, what it contains, and how it might be some way to get in there first . In michael is a matter, republicans it doesnt matter, republicans have the vote. Congressional leadership is very much antitrade and want to withdraw before they put out something new. We want to see what they come up with next to replace this. Are veryns here interested in Bilateral Agreements, rather than multilateral agreements. Vonnie what would be the chances of a Bilateral Agreement with japan and a different one with china . Michael theres been talks for years about a bilateral degree with japan. Mexico, ande with thats a problem for donald trump. There is a reason to try and do something. Theres some talk that they would try to use the tpp framework to make a Bilateral Agreement with the japanese. The japanese about signaled whether they would be open to that are not. China, because it has so many problems legally with intellectual property, with its closed currentaccount, theres no way they could create a deal like that until china opens up. Thats going to be much further down the road. Mark what is the risk of theresa may taking this trip to washington . , hest spoke to vince cable said it is full of mine field and would have been better to take the Angela Merkel approach. Simon theres two schools of thought, one that you have them close. They have a special relationship, she can get funding from these talks, may be an indication on trade. To be soe dont have close to the eu with all these other opportunities. On the flipside, the risk is the europeans will say you were associating yourself with dollar trump,who with donald who called for the block to break up. There are risks, before you look at the personality difference. Mark are they different in the way they are pitching themselves . , donaldmay, free trader trump, America First. We have to trade thirdly to the u. S. Donald trump wants to export more than imports. Simon he sees the brexit is part of the movement he has spoken of here it he has spoken of. Hes going to claim legitimacy with may try to get u. S. Support. She doesnt want to check that off. Vonnie we get is a premature decision in the u. K. Tomorrow, eagerly awaited. Her ownnister may has plan, even if the ruling goes against her. Simon absolutely. A big decision tomorrow and im 30 in london. The at 9 30 in london. Parliament, not from mr. , to invoke article 50. May will tryheresa to get a very short bill through the house of lords, one that is not subject to a great deal of amendments and doesnt slower process towards a brexit negotiation being triggered by the end of march. Mark Simon Kennedy leads are brexit coverage in london. A busy day for him tomorrow. And Michael Mckee in new york. I had on bloomberg, the chairman of terra firma capital projects. Why he has said brexit will be bad for most people in the u. K. Thats next. This is bloomberg. Mark live from london, i mark barton, counting down to the european close. I just had the biggest news of the day. Forget trump, forget brexit, forget the screen court. Wars, film is called the last jedi. It comes after the force awakens. Vonnie they can be finished. They cant be finished. There cant be a last jedi, they are eternal. Mark we know who that is. Vonnie thanks for that important news. Time for the business flash the other business stories in the news. Mcdonalds had fourthquarter earnings that beat estimates. They were helped by Technology Upgrades and new food. Instore sales were up 2. 7 globally, almost twice as much as estimates. , they say fell breakfast is no longer fueling growth. Halliburton reported thathquarter profits beat. Oil producers kicked off yearend recovery in north america, where the Company Generates most of its sales. Customers in u. S. And canada increase the number of oil and gas drilling rigs 19 in the last three months of the year. Of biggest manufacturer apple devices may build a u. S. Billionfor more than 7 , thats a major investment for foxconn technology. It could create tens of thousand jobs of jobs. Considering a joint movement with a japanese display company. That is your Bloomberg Business flash for this hour. Mark the u. K. Decision to leave the eu will lead to dramatic changes in the way the british economy operates, according to the chairman and chief Investment Officer of terra firma capital partners, who sat down with an exclusive interview with guy johnson, and was asked about theresa mays intentions in break the negotiations, especially in regards to trade. She is trying to effectively have her cake and eat it, and you cant. If you want to compete outside of europe, outside of that tariff barrier, youre going to have to be very competitive. Singapore is all right. Singapore doesnt have the same levels of Social Security and the same support for people. Singapore the average n has 1. 5 years. Wages do what . And standards go down until we reach a point where we can be competitive. How far away is that . Probably about 30 . Thats not going to happen quickly, it will happen gradually. We should talk about the fact that though britain didnt leave the eu, it wasnt able to become poorer. It was. You have control, but you suddenly entered into a world which will be very different from the world you have lived in. Of ourhat was part exclusive interview with the chairman and chief Investment Officer of terra firma capital partners. Up, we hear from pimcos head of public policy, what hes expecting from the tribe administration. Trump administration. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from london and new york, im vonnie quinn. Mark i am mark barton, this is the european close with roughly nine minutes to the end of mondays session in europe. Vonnie still awaiting word of President Trump signing executive orders on trade, and getting some headlines from ceos that met with trump on manufacturing today, including ceo. S he said the meeting was positive. Earlier today on daybreak we spoke with Libby Cantrell and asked how the president will organize his agenda over the next 100 days. Going to behe is focused on the areas where he can put points on the board. Those are the areas where he had some executive authority, and trade is one of those. With drive from the tpp, he can do that without congressional authority. We can do that we expect him to do that today is not this week. Immigration, he can wrap up enforcement without congressional approval. On some of these executive orders that was scale back obama regulations. The other things, obamacare, tax reform, infrastructure, those are all subject to congressional approval. The legislative process is ,imeconsuming, it is iterative and those things are going to take much longer. Theres been a lot of talk about obama care of the Affordable Care act. They need congressional legislation to do that. The alternatives are repealed, and think about it down the road, or repeal and replace at the same time. I suspect the Congressional Republican leaders just wanted to advance with a repeal bill that would have been easy. There is president for there is precedent for it. When donald trump came out several weeks ago saying he is going to replace simultaneously, i can just imagine what Congressional Republicans were thinking. That has a chance of hijacking their congressional agenda. The Health Care Overhaul is incredibly difficult. Obama, when he entered office, had an Approval Rating of 78 , large majorities in the senate and the house, and obamacare to 14 months to pass. Even then, it passed on a partyline vote. These are difficult and i hate to be pouring water over the animal spirit, but legislating is difficult. Friday or saturday, he had an executive order executive order declaring his administration would of repeal obamacare. No one knew what that would mean. What does that actually do for insurers and hospitals . It basically gives discretion to the secretary of health and human services, havent even evaluateirmed yet, to where they can roll back some of the things that were done by executive order. The thing about obamacare is the ball that was passed by congress, but it also gave president obama a discretion to fill in the details. Has result, President Trump the ability to roll some of those things back. To your point, the individual mandate is really the big question. Does he touched that . If he does, that could have pretty significant consequences for the insurance market. Mark adjustment the weekend looking at crowd scientists and News Conference at the white house. Big consensus positions, i am planning this big inflation trade, i hear nothing about fiscal stimulus. All i hear is obamacare, inauguration crowd sizes, and things like that. Monday morning, wheres the fiscal stimulus plan . There was no mention of tax reform over the last 60 hours. He did emphasize infrastructure. I was surprised by how much he talked about infrastructure in his inaugural speech. That is somewhat a side effect of Stephen Bannons influence. He has been very supportive of the structure. But this is where the rubber meets the proverbial road. Governing is harder than campaigning, these things, especially when they are subject to congressional approval, take a lot longer. They are doing obamacare, that who take an entire year. That would push back tax reform and infrastructure. They havent even seen legislation about how those things would work, the timing could be pushed back further. Cantrell, equities are heading towards the close on this monday afternoon here in london. Of thenutes to the end session, stocks are lower for the third consecutive day. The close is next. This is bloomberg. Mark live from london and new york, this is the european close to stocks finish out the european session down. The week dollar is pushing resources. Worst run since november 2 and that was after the gauge. Sterling made a big move today. That is the third day of gains. If the highest in almost a month after the first weekly gain in three. Last week, it rose. Tuesday was the biggest oneday moves since 1993 after the brings it speech. Speech. T the Supreme Courts ruling of she can trigger article 50 before the consent of parliament. That happens tomorrow. The economy grew. 5 . On friday, she meets resident donald trump. Will she be able to strike some sort of agreement on trade . Youre not allowed to do anything official until the u. K. Leaves the eu. Provesman 10 year yield the flight to quality havens is very much the theme on concern about Donald Trumps rhetoric. The America First rhetoric give some indication that it will be protectionist, people are worried about that. On friday, we reach the highest in a years. Look move since july last year. How things change. Its finishing up with the ultimate safe haven. Yeartwo trading days this has gold actually fallen. Its on track for its fifth weekly gain, the best run it since july 8 holding in gold etfs are expanding. 9 metric tons on friday. Thats the best run of gains since november 5, just before the trumpg day on win. Holdings contracted after trumps win. Lets not forget that gold in the last quarter fell 12 , the worst performance in over three years. Bonnie the dollar index is down half one percent. This is long time since weve seen that did you mentioned another safe haven asset. Its up half a percent. This is down for other reasons. We see rig counts go up. We know russia is still talking about cutting. Those things are waiting on the price of oil today. The 10 year yield, we saw a rally overnight. That is continuing today. Its back in action with the yield. This as the market seems to be waiting for the rhetoric to turn to something more plausible, something they can dig their hands into. A pivot to actual policy if you gmm where did look at you have seen a lot of weakness in the lira and the korean currency. I pulled up the wrong one. You can see the s p 500 is down. 4 . It is dragged down by qualcomm. They are facing a lawsuit i apple. We are seeing more people downgraded qualcomm. The other stocks are down about. 3 . We have yields. This is down about. 6 . Courtney donohoe has more. Courtney President Trump is taking aim to trade deal he said would hurt american workers. He will plan executive order pulling the u. S. Out of the Transpacific Partnership trade deal. Officialccording to an firmly with the plan. The president will sign an order to renegotiate the north American Free trade agreement with mexico and canada. President trump sold told Business Leaders he plans a massive tax cut. He said his administration thinks it can regulations by 75 and he will impose a major border tax. He meets later today with labor leaders and workers. George h. W. Bush is leaving the intensive care unit at a cost hospital in houston. He is been suffering from act aerial the money. His wife has been discharged from the hospital. She was being treated for bronchitis. Outlined heras strategy for industrials today. She will deal with the u. K. Business sector while preparing the economy to leave the european union. The government will back areas where it inks the u. K. Can excel, including Artificial Intelligence and networking. Global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, this is bloomberg. Im courtney donohoe. Mark thanks very much. Its get to markets. Have a big showdown looming in the markets. Hedge funds are upping their bats like never before. At the same time, institutional buys did the opposite. What can we make of this disparity . Lets ring in a bloomberg reporter who covers the treasuries and global bonds. Thanks for joining us. Fast money versus real money. Who is going to win . Brian the two of them have an increasing their stakes in very different directions. I talked to jpmorgan. Their perspective is real money is going to end up winning out there and there is a lot more at stake and money on that side of the equation between funds and insurance companies. Theyre really finding some value. Mark are fast money investors comparing investors when they all crowded together . Brian thats with the research has indicated. Eventuallye limit, it might be too late and the deal start to go down. They have to cover their positions and unwind, which leads to a cascading effect that leaves deals lower when the bets seem to indicate they expected to go higher. Vonnie could they both be right . Fast money as fast for a reason, and wants to get in and get out. Money istutional longerterm and looking for much larger and more stable returns, longerterm. Brian this is a really interesting topic, the first day of the Trump Administration when you are taking clues about order taxes and tax rates and regulation. Its this question about policy and how much of it there will be. Will there be enough to really lift off growth above 3 and lead to longterm deals, moving higher from here. Has a lot of that already been priced into the market . About year has backed up 100 basis points from its low last year. The question is going to be where do we go from here . We have been in a tight range. No one has linked yet. We will see what happens. Vonnie the chart really is fascinating. Its a massive disparity between the two. What part of the curve we talking about . Brian the real focus is the fiveyear. It tends to be the one that is very sensitive to fed expectations for the longterm. Her janet yellen say potentially we will raise rates a few times and year through 2019. That would affect the fiveyear quite a bit, even more than the twoyear. Its these fiveyear parts of thaturve whether its real these players are focusing on. Mark there is no guarantee when it comes back to growth. The growth measures that donald trump will implement will leave it to fast growth, fast growth past fast. That underscores the uncertainty around the economy Going Forward. You have these hopes that fiscal policy will stimulate the growth while you have these topics of people have been harping on for last year when they hit record lows about them a graphics, about high debt levels across the world, and how there are real longterm elements that are going to suppress bond yields for decades to come. Mark what a great story. I think its still up there. It is right up there at the top. Thats a great story. Its great to read. Bloomberg treasuries and global bonds reporter. Frome we have a signal the Trump Administration on unsettling financial markets. We will get you what you need to know in markets. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this was the takeover. The stocks are down as a result. At that is down 1. 3 right now. 2. 5 . Is down about pointad been down 4 one bid for humana has been turned down. Mark they are trying to discern the impact of Donald Trumps policies. The index fell the lowest in a month. Is pledging to make america independent from opec. Joining us is the managing editor of energy and commodities. Richard jones is a rate strategist. Lets start with you. Metals arising. Donaldre hopes that trump will rebuild americas infrastructure. That is still playing out. Tina weve seen the Industrial Metals rally today. Way kind of wonders which trump is going to take the world economy. Its been an interesting play. In terms of how gold has been performing it, you would expect rising Interest Rate market you would not see much clamoring for gold. We see a lot of uncertainty. One of the most interesting notes that has come out in the is Goldman Sachs describing investors as uncertain and confused. I think you see that in the Commodity Markets as well. Mark we are seeing it in the dollar. Investors are choosing to look the glass halffull rather than halfempty. This is when it comes to the dollar. Richard what we have seen in the aftermath is a rally in the dollar. Now we are starting to see a little bit of sideways trading at a little bit of that positioning being unwound. It does speak to what we were talking in the previous set, the longterm versus the shortterm time horizons for investors. We have seen and unwind of that dollar on short treasury trades. Vonnie can i come back to you, tenet . Aluminumlking about prices, they are rising even though china is putting out plenty. What is the thinking behind the price of Aluminum Prices . Tina there could he and inflow of infrastructure spending. There is concern about section is him. We saw a recently court case go into the wto asking for more protection to get dumping by china. That follows a lot of the court cases that have not on. You see a much more protectionist standpoint. Underst recent thing came the Obama Administration but nobody expects that to be curtailed by the new administration. Vonnie i want to play a sound bite that we got from iraqs oil minister take a listen. It will be in 100 compliance with the opec agreement. Month, beforethis the end of this month really, we are going to complete our share of 210,000 barrels a day. That is a reduction in us as a whole. Vonnie can i get your thoughts . Obviously, that is the reason. Here we see that iraq is not compliant yet. It will be. Tina they came out of the meeting all smiles. Everyone was talking about how great it was. Is they willt now reach full compliance by next month. Russia has already reached full compliance. More interestingly, the Russian Energy minister is talking about the trust between nonoutback and opec nations. Positivity inat terms of the compliance of the cuts, oil prices are still falling because they fear whats coming on in the americas. There is a rig count increase, the largest in three years. How much longer will it be before the market is oversupplied again. Mark donald trump does a weaker dollar. Hewhat extent is he can accomplish it . If he goes into his protectionist stance, will the dollar behave . Is that too simple . Richard i think its very difficult if the president wants dollar givinge the background for him to achieve it. Weve always had a strong dollar policy as the stated goal of the administrations of the past. If that change in rhetoric occurs, you have that countervailing against growth in the economy. It comes down to what the details of the program will be and what it means for the economy. In the initial time after the election, there was optimism about that. I think the details will be the most important thing for the u. S. Economy and the dollar. Mark where are my notes. I think was over a month at the dollar went back to the brexit speech. How are investors positioned ahead of the Supreme Court ruling tomorrow, if it goes against may, how does the pound react . Richard its a little less crowded than it was. Overwhelmingly, you still have investors. Vonnie we have an executive action signed. This was signed by donald trump to withdraw from tpp. Anotherthat is down 10th of a percent. He comments on exiting tpp. Donald trumps signing an executive action to withdraw from the tpp. Treasuryhe 10 year down in terms of yield. Davis and to tina richard jones. Again, donald trump has signed vonnie that is donald trump signing an executive order, it from tpp. Thdraw an order for a federal high freeze except war military. He is among the executive taking, he calls it a great thing for the american worker. Bring back michael who is our International Policy correspondent. Mean . Oes this we are no longer heart of the process area that had not been ratified. Michael it wasnt going to be. Its low hanging fruit. We have not heard of he is nafta, which would be somewhat meaningful. Withdrawing from tpp to lower nontariff barriers, that wasnt going to get approved in the u. S. Matter alloesnt that much. Is donald trump going to do Something Else . Will he ring those countries a fairer or freer or both trading arrangement with the states the federal hiring president signs that. Government is always the enemy to the incoming president. We will see how long that last. Donald trump has positions he needs to fill. This is one that goes back and forth between the democrats and republicans. Youre not led to use federal servicesor abortion overseas. Its called the mexico city doctrine. When the democrats are in power, it gets approved. Nothing is really unexpected so far today. Mark is china rubbing its hands in glee . This seed control in trade and asia to china . Michael it gives them a big leg up. There are other trade groups they are trying to get a treaty together. China has taken the lead on one of those. China doesnt have a convertible currency, which makes it more difficult to sign a Free Trade Agreement. It doesnt mean it gives them an automatic win. It does give them a leg up in negotiating. That is something u. S. Officials had been concurred concerned about. They had been able to use the tpp against china. You are not in the club. If you will agree to some of our demands, they will let you in. I dont want to overstate it. It does look like markets are lower. They are not treating this is market friendly at the moment. Michael its not market friendly until we see what replaces it. Towill make it harder for us export goods overseas. We have companies on both sides of that equation. They want to see what happens Going Forward. None of these executive orders are unexpected and none of them have a farreaching affect on the short run. The lack of tpp might weigh on the u. S. Economy. Vonnie we have a bill from the democrats. Its something trump and the democrats can ally on slightly. What is the next part of the process . Michael we are going to want to hear what they want to do about trade next. The problem we have had is he is in opposition to individual trade agreements. He has talked about individual tariffs on companies that move out of the country. There is no overarching theory of trade other than he once their agreements. What does that mean . Who will he invite into the club . Thats what people will want to see. Mark what do you think theresa may is thinking . You know that trump likes bilateral deals. Agreement . Oose i know it cant be official. Michael it probably ups the odds. The two of them will come out the asus andree on principles. It will allow us to achieve something in short order. One of the more interesting aspects that has been talked about is the possibility of changing these requirements so its easier for people to move to the u. K. And vice versa. Mark, you can come over here and sit with vonnie quinn. We can bring more people into work or send our people to work in the u. K. And both sides win on the job front. Moree you will hear throughout the day. Our thanks to Michael Mckee. Take a look at where the european markets and did. It was all about concerns about Donald Trumps America First rhetoric, which caused a flight to havens like gold and government bonds in europe. Gold is up today and stocks are down for the third consecutive week after last week. I will leave you whats happening in currencies. Its a date that the dollar will want to forget. All the major currencies are rising against the dollar today. The euro is lower against the pound. The pound is up. 9 . The fifth bloomberg targets continue. This is bloomberg. David welcome to bloomberg markets. From bloombergs World Headquarters in your, here are the top stories. President donald trump ends a decades old tilt toward free trade by signing an executive order to withdraw from the Transpacific Partnership. Cromwell at sullivan joins us on what a Trump Administration meets for mergers and acquisitions in our weekly deals report. There is a big showdown looming in the treasury market. First, President Donald Trump inside an executive action to withdraw from the transpacific bishop. Partnership. Vonnie they were running behind schedule. President trump sign that executive action. He said he will renegotiate the Free Trade Agreement as well. As part of the campaign