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“COVID’s US toll expected to drop sharply by end of July” was the headline following a CDC “weather” report on the future course of the pandemic. That is entirely plausible and possible, but read the full story and we discover that shifting patterns could make the difference between sunny skies or storm clouds ahead.
Teams of researchers used statistical modeling to create and analyze four COVID-19 scenarios from April through September:
· High vaccination rate with moderate use of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as masking and distancing
· High vaccine uptake with low use of NPIs
· Low vaccine uptake with moderate use of NPIs