The Dynamic Relationship Between Global Debt And Output
The global economy has reached record levels of indebtedness, to the concern of researchers and policymakers. On the one hand, debt can be beneficial by smoothing out consumption and accelerating capital accumulation, and thus contributing to economic output. On the other hand, rising debt increases debt service costs and can potentially expose countries to financial risks and lower output. In particular, a large expansion of debt can be associated with a significant economic contraction that can last for years.
Global debt as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) has been on an upward trend for decades (see figure 1). Rising debt levels are occurring across developed and developing countries in both the public and private sectors. Despite the overall global trends, patterns of debt vary by sector and a country’s level of economic development.[1] For example, in the private sector - comprising firms and households - developed countries borrow significantly more than developing countries. Public (government) sector debt relative to GDP is also higher in developed economies. Nevertheless, public sector debt in developing countries accounts for a disproportionately larger share of total debt than in developed countries. Also, foreign debt represents a larger share of total debt in developing economies.