Research Terms of Reference: Economic Resilience Assessment - Armenia, ARM2102 (13/07/2021, V1)
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2.1 Background
Findings from the second round of the Multi-Sector Needs Assessment (MSNA), conducted by REACH in close collaboration with the Information Management Working Group (IMWG) and the Coordination Steering Group (CSG) in Armenia in March-April 2021, and parallel REACH and AGORA assessments indicate that, while the majority of people who were displaced to Armenia because of the outbreak of war in Nagorno Karabakh in September-November 2020 have already returned to Nagorno Karabakh (NK), those who remain are expected to stay for the longer term. According to the findings of the 2nd round of the MSNA, 93.4% of assessed households (HHs) were not intending to move or were unable to communicate their intentions because of the movement of their areas of origin under Azerbaijani control, security concerns regarding returning to NK and other factors that increase their vulnerability. According to the latest approximate numbers from May 2021 around 37,000 people in a refugee-like situation remain in Armenia. Understanding residual humanitarian and early recovery needs of the remaining population will effectively inform when and how the transition from cash, in-kind, and voucher-based humanitarian support to sustainable interventions of different modalities should be implemented. While the existing assessments provided an overview of livelihood conditions of the refugee-like population in Armenia, including major livelihood needs and challenges faced (in terms of income-generating activities, debt loads, unemployment rates et al), there is a need for a more in-depth sector-specific understanding of the needs of this particularly vulnerable population within the context of a transitioning humanitarian response. The planned comprehensive economic resilience assessment will largely complement the existing quantitative data generated by REACH and AGORA.