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we could bring some of these hostages home. >> a potential deal for hostages. >> it's not going to be done until it's done. >> tonight, the delicate negotiation going on in israel, it will take to take some get some of the hamas hostages home. then, the latest on the gag order against the ex president as authoritarianism keeps spreading beyond trump. >> i will rain hell on washington and lee, see. >> plus, a reason why the polls are so tight, and why inflation ain't what it used to be. >> we went to go buy a turkey today. it was $90 for a turkey. >> when all in starts, right now. good evening from new york. i'm chris hayes. we are having some big news tonight. it is been 45 days since the october 7th hamas attack on israel, which precipitated the nearly constant bombardment of gaza by these army and a nearly full scale ground invasion. in today at this hour there is a glimmer of hope that some of the over 200 hostages can be returned in the fighting can come to an end, at least temporarily, right now, as of this moment, these really government is convening late into the night over a potential deal brokered by the government with assistance from the united states, brokered with qatar, to reach some of this hostages who have been in a mass custody since the attack on october 7th. we should stress that things are still in flux. we do not know exactly what a deal will look like if and when it materializes, though many of the parties to it indicate it was close. there have been reports in the media the discussions involve hamas releasing about 50 israeli ostriches, primarily women and children, in exchange for 150 palestinian political prisoners in israeli custody, also women and children. nbc news has also learned the deal might include permission for the red cross access to the remaining hostages in gaza, access they have so far been denied, though they -- the deal may also involve what is really prime minister benjamin yet in howell causal pause in the war, possibly for five days, to facilitate the prisoner and how to hostage what. again, nothing is confirmed until we hear directly from the parties. if a deal is reached reached, it is subject to review by the israeli supreme court. top of this deal comes amid mounting pressure on the government of netanyahu, including protests outside his home. there have also been mounting calls to get more humanitarian aid for palestinians into gaza, and scrutiny over the increasing civilian death toll there. so far there are more than 14,000 dead in gaza, including 5000 children, that's according to health officials there. although those health officials were unable to even keep that tally through part of that period. the past few weeks there have been reports on negotiations for a hostage deal falling apart at the last minute, including one indicating that netanyahhad rejected a deal for a cease-fire, a five-day cease-fire in exchange for a release of some of the hall hostages in the early days of the war. the politics are not straightforward. some hard-line members of netanyahu's far-right government oppose the current deal as well. but from what we know tonight does not appear as though there is enough internal resistance to stop such a deal. again, this all remains in. flags flocks we are watching minute to minute to see what happens, as i imagine so many folks in israel, whose family members are held right now, in those in gaza are as well. netanyahu has made it clear the israeli military intends to resume its bombardment of gaza following a temporary pause that might be struck in a deal, noting he believes israel remains at war with hamas, and multiple members of the government has said the utter destruction of hamas is the only entity they will accept at the end of this conflict. still, the release of any hostages, or even a brief pause in the bombardment of gaza for 45 days, is honestly probably the first real break of hope. there were a few hostages released earlier but the first break of hope and the possibility of something other than death and destruction in what has been an unremitting lee dark six weeks. we have an independent journalist reporting from jerusalem, including new york magazine. you've been covering this very closely, particularly the dynamics around family members of hostages and the government. there is a very late night convening of the cabinet to assess the deal. do you know anything about what is happening? >> yeah, good night from here, chris. we know that minutes ago the israeli government did vote to pass the deal and it was not unanimous and netanyahu's most extreme right ministers including i think one or two from his own party did not support it. but out of the 38 minister government it past comfortably. they there are expected to be very limited appeals to the supplee priem court presented even tonight. right now three or four in the morning. those appeals will be against certain names of palestinian prisoners who are going to be published in the coming minutes, those that will be exchanged. and family members of the victims, those people have the right to appeal specific names. ironically, the right-wing organizations who were hoping to appeal against this whole decision said it was illegitimate elevated for doing it by a law that in yahoo himself past prewar. >> right. >> when he was trying to do his traditional overhaul. >> this is the times reporting on this on the possible palestinian prisoners who might be included in such a de saying that negotiations the release of israeli women and children held hostage in gaza in exchange for palestinian women, the most recent arrests -- protests and violence have surged including attacks and palestinians by israeli settlers. israel has said the rest are part of a carrier warned that palestinianhave detainees are held without gazan or even subject to torture. it sounds like mostly would be women and children themselves. is there any additional reporting about the pause aspect of this? about there being substation of hostilities for some period of time? >> there is, and as you said, we should under underline how complicated it is. the understanding that i have here is that the initial batch of israeli hostages to be released counts, as you said, about 50, that they're not going to be released all on thursday. they're going to be released at about the pace of ten a day over four or five days. what hamas is promising is that if israel then extend the pause, it will search for more children in particular. it will search for more. israel has about 240 hostages. so the release of 50 would still leave 190 israelis or, i want to emphasize this, foreigners captured in israel, tourists, agricultural workers, aid workers, you name it. these people are not -- israel his said any non-israeli citizens are not counted in exchange for the palestinian prisoners. but these are all counted as israeli hostages taken from israeli territory. so i think that if the deal goes ahead and it proceeds well, what we are seeing is at least five days of a truce that i think will include also the cessation of israelis by drone activities over gaza, which leads to a lot of questions about what hamas is planning to do during that time and the plans to dangle this possibility of further hostage releases over several days, ideally for it to try and change this truce into a permanent cease-fire. >> let me just say that, you just had this one not only views anything they don't know, but nbc news now confirming in reporting that the israeli cabinet as, as noga was just saying, past the -- a majority approve this deal. again, the contours of the deal are not public or written down anywhere. so we are still sort of figuring it out based on reporting. if the deal was approved, it was not unanimous unanimous. some of the more far-right members of that government, including some members of netanyahu's likud party as well. the prime minister's office, the israeli government in the meetings just ended. this is the prime minister's office. the outline of the hostage deal passed by a majority of votes. that's what we have. we have approval, it seems. we have understanding the basic contours of this, particularly about the sort of attenuated release of hostages in exchange for cincinnati should of hostilities. my final question, what political discourse around this has been like? obviously i can imagine right now family members of the hostages in this unbelievable intense and difficult period right now of wondering, is their loved one going to be one of the ones? >> that's right. the word for this is heartbreaking. it's heartbreaking. there have been aspects that have been disgraceful with sun of netanyahu's ministers attacking his family, screaming you don't have a non-monopoly on pain, in this sort of thing. i have to tell you that, again, assuming this deal goes through, as you say, assuming you go through smoothly, what we're talking about is the israeli government and very few days finding itself in a squeeze organized by hamas in which either its spends military operations for longer or it has to look at close to 100 israeli families in the face and say yeah, your loved ones are still in gaza, and we're starting to bomb again. >> all right, noga tarnopolsky, always fantastic to get your perspective. i appreciate you staying up to this ungodly hour. thank you very much. >> thank you, chris. >> david remnick, editor of the new york, or where he's been rating about the -- and has lived in gaza especially during the 2014 war. they join me now. amy, let me start with you in your reaction. obviously the deal itself, and it's contours have been reported in the last few days didn't does look like the israeli government has proved it. it's not until it's. done >> those of us who have been reporting on the negotiations this started in on october 8th to be frank, so the truth is that the contours of the agreement have ebbed and flowed depending on who is going to be released. and one point it was foreigners, a one point it was all israeli silva leon or non israeli soldiers. the idea that the negotiation has been on the table for weeks now, it is very safe to say, this did not come out of anywhere. the real question going forward is, what is changing in the calculation of the israeli cabinet? what is changing from is really leaders who said it's not time how these are negotiations? a couple of weeks ago before the ground offensive, a similar proposal was put forward to the israeli cabinet, i should say to the israeli prime minister from the qatar mediators, and their position was not yet. they felt that hamas had not been genuine or sincere, but the release of the hostages but they also felt the pressure in the price that hamas had paid for what it did on october 7th was not adequate. it begs the question now, as we begin to understand the calculation of the prime minister, why he decided to accept this, so as noga well, saying the internal dynamic dynamics, it's what happening in gaza. >> david, in your reporting from israel and the west's with the west bank that you published in the new yorker, one of the things it's been so clear since the atrocity on october 7th and everything that has happened, is just the sort of brutal dark and implacable logic of reprisal in violence. seeing no off ramp. this parade of war and more death and destruction. this does, if it happens, at least signify the first opening for some kind of path that isn't just that. >> we'll as noga can tell you with even more experience in-depth, the basic truth here is no one's going anywhere. no matter how this finally ends there will be israelis, there will be gas, and there will be palestinians, and then what? so the question is, in short term and in the long term, what will prevail? will hatred prevail? we urge for higher walls and bigger armies and create a rage prevail as politics in the middle east? or will there be some politics, both in gaza, if that's even possible in the term, and in the west bank and throughout the middle east, that finds some glimmer forward a reconciliation. today the new york times ran a piece about, was piece over possible in 2008 camp david and rent yet again, yet again through the details, narratives, and counterintuitive's of what happened. but even greater and more complex problem is, what will happen the day after all this comes to an end? and that is the darkest, of deepest complexity, i would think. >> i want to farro on that with you, ayman, but first, david, i want to ask about contributor to your magazine who lives in gaza. i have been reading his stuff, vie in the new yorker and also just a remarkable guy, a poet, gradually syracuse university. he runs, the only english language library in gaza. a father of three. he was detained by israeli defense forces. a lot you lost contact with him. please tell me. >> i was in contact with him while i was in israel and thereafter i was in contact with a 30-year-old poet with three children a wife and an extended family in gaza, and lived all his life in gaza, except when he was in the united states it's your cues university. a remarkable person. and he and his family, who lived in northern gaza, we're heading towards the south, hoping to leave, hoping to go to rafah, which is at the southern end of the gaza strip. and along the way he was apprehended by the israeli military for no seaming reason, and taken into custody with dozens of other palestinians. according to my information, he was taken out of israel, taken to a military outpost in the negative, in southern israel, and was there for two days and was interrogated, and there are reports that he was beaten, and i have not confirmed this. i have not been able to speak with him today. but my information, and i think this is absolutely true, is that he has been released and he's back in gaza. thank god, with his family. but again, this is one very gifted poet and there is relief in this. but of course there are thousands of thousands of people who have been killed. 1200 people have been killed in the most brutal way in israel. and so the killing, the suffering, is general. i hope the best for him and his family. that is one story in a much larger tragic picture. again, i think we have to start thinking about where this is going in terms of u.s. policy as well as israeli politics and palestinian politics as well. >> to talk to david's point about the day after question, in some ways it's premature precisely for the reasons you articulated, i think almost unanimously across the board. almost all of israeli politics, with some exceptions, and particularly the unity government, they have said the destruction of hamas's and state that we will seek in this war. if there is a pause here, and it looks like there will be, that will be short of that. but then the question becomes, to continue that is the goal? is it an achievable goal? and if it you achieve it, what comes after? >> so many good questions. those are enormous questions to sift through. but i will say this. i think this is why this one is so important. we are having a conversation. if you just listen to the story of warsaw and even talking about him, these are the stories the palestinians have lived with every single day under occupation. they don't get the international media attention. they're getting it now because of the warm because what is happening there. i think for us who have tried to answer what happened, to david's point, it requires an honest conversation about all of the parties involved in the conditions of life. what he is, as you are, saying what happens the day after? does israel resume military operations was the 200 plus pasta edges are released? >> they're not gonna do that with precisely the reasons you've enunciated. >> exactly. they're gonna they know how this works, they've been through this many times before. they're in games to be able to put the spotlight on the israeli government as a result of these are negotiations, and put them in a different corner to make about when this is gonna resume. but if you apply the logic of what has happened right now over the poorest course in the last seven weeks, 46% of residential units in gaza have been destroyed. what -- is the endgame? to what extent do you prepare to killed millions palestinians to eradicate hamas? there has to be some limit. that's the problem wipe comments community american administration with says there are no red lines become extremely problematic. >> to the final point to you, david -- >> i agree, is real could not be expected to go on, and first of all there was the great delusion that somehow you could, quote unquote, shrink the conflict. that was the phrase used in israel, not only by netanyahu. you would shrink the conflict, empower hamas, give them privileges to work in israel, and it will go away, to concentrate on the west bank. . >> or piece with. arabs >> and you just get from one year to the next. well that was a delusion. a gigantic delusion. this was netanyahu's eye himself as the great winston churchill of israel. now that has been shattered. but also israel cannot be expected to live on its border with the threat is the experienced on a tour seventh either. so how do you, again, we're back to the original question, how can israel live incan security, and how can the palestinians be given their dignity, and eventually their statehood and their own security and their own personhood? that has to occur, because neither of these people aren't going anywhere. and they both deserve to live decent, secure lives in a decent and secure politics. that is a question of immense complexity. >> and the only way that they all get there is one step at a time. it does seem like perhaps a first little step in a direction away from more violence and more death, and some good news for parties across this conflict. we're still waiting on the details. we're gonna find out the details of the hostage deal. i want to thank david remnick and my good friend ayman mohyeldin. we'll be right back. ayman mohyeldin. we'll be right back. we'll be right back. >> when i wanted to see results fast, rinvoq delivered rapid symptom relief and helped leave bathroom urgency behind. check. when uc tried to slow me down... i got lasting, steroid-free remission with rinvoq. check. and when uc caused damage rinvoq came through by visibly repairing my colon lining. check. rapid symptom relief... lasting steroid-free remission... ...and the chance to visibly repair the colon lining. check, check, and check. rinvoq can lower your ability to fight infections, including tb. serious infections and blood clots, some fatal; cancers, including lymphoma and skin cancer; death, heart attack, stroke, and tears in the stomach or intestines occurred. people 50 and older with at least 1 heart disease risk factor have higher risks. don't take if 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find the hidden genius project. we wanted to give y'all the necessary skills to compete with the future. kevin's now part of this next generation of young people who feel they can thrive. ♪ ♪ >> so we are following breaking news on israel this hour, as reported in the top of the hour the government has approved a deal to secure the release of some hostages in a mass custody. notably the vehicle is not finalized until the israeli supreme court, although as our preemie previous reporter said, that is-limited somewhat by a law passed by netanyahu's government. we're also awaiting official word from the government of qatar, who helped broker it. i also want to bring in again david remnick and eamonn mo yelled in. david, let me talk about qatar. to me one of the most fascinating countries on earth. for a small country, very rich country, the kind of place where you have both members of the iranian government and members of hamas and u.s. army base. and the taliban. everyone is there. talk about their unique role here. to your point about how there were some conversations happening basically from day one. it has all been in qatar. >> qatar has held this foreign policy in the region that has agitated a lot of its neighbors for a lot tie a lot of time, trying to keep open lines of communications to some of the most hostile players in the region. their position has been, we are doing that in the request of the americans. it is americans who have asked us to have an office with the taliban. it's americans who have asked. does the israelis have asked us to keep this in direct talks with a mask. if hamas were interact, can you aged how hard these negotiations would be to secure the release of these hostages? their position has been that we have tried to maintain open lines of communication. with that comes activity that i think western countries would look at and say, well, that's a bit questionable. qatar's position is we have to build trust with these people. if you want to have a taliban office, if you want to have a masters office here, you have to allow us to interact with them in a confidence building measure. one of the ways people have been critical of the qatari government is that they're giving money to. hush money that is sent hamas with the approval of the israeli government. it's important to be clear about. that some of the money has been delivered in cash. it has been done with the blessing of the israel military, which for a long time wanted hamas to be propped up to weaken the palestinian authority in the west bank. so they're saying we want to be an intermediary that the united states in the west would like us to play an intermediary role. >> david, you mentioned this about the u.s. posture toward this, and i sink the biden administration, biden himself and members of his administration have been, i think from the seventh onward, the public facing posture is zero space with between us and israel. they have the right to defend themselves. i think it has been clear from my own reporting and others that there is a somewhat different posture privately. but it's also the case that this has been a real investment of the u.s. government, in these talks and pushing toward some release. >> you're not only dealing with qatar, a very complicated country to say the least, we are also dealing with benjamin netanyahu. the u.s. administration after u.s. administration has come to sadness by doing this very same thing, which is having this public support and then thinking that they can persuade netanyahu to do one thing or another in private. you learn member, doing or bombers time, they thought the united states thought it was making progress toward pushing netanyahu towards some kind of accommodation, where at least negotiations with the palestinians. netanyahu played that string like a master, infuriating obama and finally the americans had had it. biden lived through that. you know this scenario very well. he's not foolish. but this is what you have in office. you have not only netanyahu but a cabinet stocked with people that you can't just describe his right winger but really far far right wing nationalists. those players are going to be very important as we go forward in israeli politics, as are the sadler's, as are a growing center, one hopes, in israel. how these politics of the united states evolve as well as the middle east is going to be instrumental in the future, not only of gaza but also the region itself. >> a great hebrew word, fire which is mug or soccer, you don't want to be the fryer. so as many u.s. administration it's been those interactions. david remnick and ayman mohyeldin, it's been great to have you both. thank you very much. we're gonna keep watching this news and see if we get more details. we'll be right back. coming up. up. up. >> tide is busting laundry's biggest myth... that cold water can't clean. - food fight!! - food fight!! ♪♪ cold water, on those stains? welp, only one way to find 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presidents rhetoric. the peace s on the, quote, scholars democrats in a trumpublicans or asking a new how much mr. trump resembles grin strongman abroad and how he compares to authoritarian leaders of the past. perhaps most urgently, they are wondering whher his rhetorical turn into more fascist sounding territory is just his latest public provocation of the left, an evolution of his beliefs, or dropping of the veil. good sentence. and to be clear, this is the correct, unavoidable assessment of donald trump's words and actions. fascist sounding, that's a good description. in recent weeks he has compared his political opponents to vermin, threatened to use the power of the state psecute his enemies. has publicly discseplans to round up intimate imgrts and concentrate them in camps and deport them by the millions. if the man doing all this wasn't also the man launched a violent coup to stay in power, maybe you could sms him as just talkbut we all saw it. he already tried to topple american democracy, and he's going to try it again. he keeps telling us. that is the language and the behavior of fascism. maybe some different form of it, some 24 century american incarnation, but it is always been there. lately it has become even louder. in this moment the true menace of a fascist kind of movement in this country is becoming more apparent. it's not just emanating from donald trump or his fans. we see it and hear it in concentric circles, emanating out from the ex president. there are some people in republican party politics chiefly, who just don't have the courage or moral backbone or sensor wherewithal or even the dignity of self to fight. they're just blindly resigned to it. it's pathetic, but it's how most of them are. some are actively pushing fascist ideas in the hopes of executing them from positions of power in the trump administration. this dude, conservative mike davis, he's got a risen bay that's, like, one in 100. you can find tons of guys like this. he helped confirmed chief justice gorsuch, he -- chaired the judiciary committee, a guy who was like in charge of shepherding judicial nominations. he wants to be donald trump's next attorney general. he is laying out his plans for a reign of terror, in his own words, when he gets there. >> during my three-week reign of terror as trump acting attorney general before i get chased out of town with my trump pardon, i will rain hell on washington, d.c.. number one, we go to fight. we're going to fire a lot of people, executive branch, dig deep state. we are going tonight. we anyone date joe biden, hunter biden, and every sleaze ball biden. we were going to deport a lot of people, ten people and growing. acre babies, parents, grandparents, we have put kids in cages. it's going to be glorious. >> that's an offensive term for american citizens. after my colleague mady hassan highlighted this, he said maybe hansen is on my list. i also i have a spot picked out in the d.c. gulag. this is almost like comically pathetic chest beating of a creepy dork. but, again, in the history of fascism is kind of full of greedy dorks who came into power and then because it's been their whole lives as aping creepy dorks and then use the power to act outdoors to despicable fantasies. -- of course that most recent threat against my friend and colleague mandy, came and a platform owned by the wealthiest man in the world who perhaps you've been hearing some of it, also clearly just aligned himself with this fascist tendency. elon musk has welcomed back neo-nazis who had been banned from the site ex. he defended white supremacists, compared george soros to a super mayer marvel super villain. he endorsed the greek anti-semitic replacement theory the motivated mass shooting is the actual truth, that's the one about the cabal of nefarious jews colluding and puppeteer-ing minorities in order to extinguish white people. it was the inspiration for the mass murder that happened at the -- synagogue. musk has state power on his side. yesterday takes its journey ken paxton, the guy who just managed to escape an hment, announced investigation into the -- media matters in the f their report about ads for major brands appearing next to the pro-nazi -- that's what it looks like. when people in power, with state power, abuse that power to persecute their political enemies. and again, this is, the message. this is what they are running on. this is what donald trump and his allies are promising to do, over and over. every second day or in front of a camera. one of the most maddening features of this era is knowing that in watching this happen, while polling suggests most americans don't care. don trumpsupporters are not be but i've got to say, we have different picture, courtesy of na in the new york times. nate was very very smart and runs a great polling operation in the new york times. he tries experiment to measure howch democracy matters to voters. so when he asked uncided voters if they would support a democratic candidate who say or who saysdon trump is a unique tho decracy. or a republican who's s should move on, the republican led by 15 points. republican candidate who tried toovturn the election, the hypothetical mocrat led by three points. the strong evidence that they repelled by anti-democracy candidates. again, this result isn't just comforting abstraction. yove got data on this inthe real world that fits with recent election results, where anti democracy fascist sympathizing candidates have faced defeat after defeat. americans, my marriage, maybe not by enormous margins, do, in the main, remain in favor of democracy. that's cheering. in the end, this has been the case since 2015, when the guy first came down the staircase, escalator, and it's been the case throughout the american experiment. we are, all of us together, are our own best hope. the forces of the other side are increasingly loud about what they want to do. it's as important as ever that we resist. next year, little b even more explicit reverend referendum on the future of american dominic rousey, but this is demanding set of rhetorical incentive driving the electorate and media to criticize the person representing the pro democracy forces in that reprimand referendum, president joe biden. as david roberts writes, there is no faction in u.s. politics, barely even elected democrats for whom praising democrats are socially and in ages. it is from almost every vantage point, uncool. joining me now is david roberts, host of the whole votes prod cast. the rhetorical incentives the whole variety of factions, essentially on the establishment of american life have their views toward the current incumbent president want to say about him. run me through your argument? >> this has been striking me for years, and it's only gotten more acute lately. obviously, anytime you watch regular media, republican media, it's wall-to-wall criticism of democrats. even more so than praise of republicans. that has been the core of fox's reason for being. since it was born. then at the far it seems left, the progressives, who for good reasons, i think, want to move the dems left, wanted to be more ambitious, so they are constantly to criticizing dems from the left, to the point that it has become a habit that they do, regardless, no matter what happens. and then you have the sort of thoughtful centrist dam pundits, all of whom need to show the other thoughtful centers dampen tense, how independent they are, the fact that they are not partisans, they are not team players, they're taking for themselves, and the way to do that is by criticizing their own party. if you go down the list, you'll notice, there's no one left who actually wants to go to voters what democrats have accomplished, what dems are doing, who want to actually be partisan for democrats. it's a weird thing that there is one of two political parties that has effectively, very little spokespeople in the media. everybody has incentive to criticize them, no one has incentive to defend them. >> i should say, there are paid people who do it. people whose job it is to criticize them. and then it's also the fact, that look, as journalists, the guy in powder, we have the power, a lot of people are not happy with the policy on israel and hamas and the gaza war from different directions. that comes with -- heavy is the where who wears the crown, and difficult is the guy who is running the most powerful country ever. >> you think that we could at least balance that out. i am the last person to criticize the dems. i've been criticizing democrats for decades, but it would be nice if it was bounced up by an appreciation of what dems have done. if you look at these polls, they're saying the same thing over and over again, which is a bunch of swing voters saying, or even core democratic voters saying, it would be nice if dems do x, y and z, and then he now this, wait a minute, that's what they have done. telling anyone what they've done. this is what you hear with swing voters. i want a party to do what democrats are actually doing. they just don't know democrats are doing it. >> it is true, i will say that joe biden is a good president is one of the most under populated parts of the american political discourse. it's a very sparse part of the quadrant, and i'll speak for myself, on domestic policy, particularly like he has done exceptionally good job under extremely difficult circumstances. that view, again, that isn't underpopulated view. >> i will say for respective on climate and energy stuff, he passed the biggest climate bill in u.s. history. a climate bill that i heard foreign secretary say is in the paris agreement, galvanizing internationally. it's a huge a big deal, almost no one knows about it. they don't even know it happened, and yeah, we had biden approved the willow oil exploration project of alaska, which a lot of environmentalist and what people think is bad. everybody heard about that instantly. i heard from everybody from youth environment movements instantly knew about that and or angry about it. i just reflect, why did the good thing he did apparently reach no one, and the bad thing he did, instantly reached everyone? that is one example, but i think you can run down the list. he's done a lot of things that people legitimately approve of, if you did it. >> one of the places where you saw this was in the swing races in 2022, when you had frontline members like -- in a swing seat in michigan, running for senate in that state, asking, here is the battering plan that we built with a bill i voted for. people did not like that. the question remains is, how much a campaign concentrates their mind on precise thoughts. david roberts, who's always a brilliant observer of our discursive reality, i appreciate you coming on. >> thanks, chris. >> still to come, as crisis tumble ahead of the holidays, to david's point, that should be good news for the incumbent 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percent. >> our place in the world right now is trying to figure out what we can afford for the thanksgiving dinner. that's our place in the world. whether or not we can do a summer to see the family, because a gas prices. >> americans are still feeling inflation pains ahead of thanksgiving next week. >> we want to go buy a turkey today, it was $90 for a turkey. >> $90 for a turkey. by the way, it turned out to be a super, super fancy turkey, which is pretty funny. one of the biggest issues surrounding any inflation discussion is that anything other than deflation feels like a lot of people that the situation keeps getting worse. let me explain. the rate of inflation, you can see it dropping on the right side of the screen, ever since it peaked at 9% in june 2022. but the rate is just how quickly things are getting more expensive. they're getting more expensive more slowly. the problem is that people want the actual prices the come down. the price level as what we feel on our daily lives, not the rate of change. here is the thing, right now, we are seeing the actual price level, not just the rate, starting to change materially in some areas. here's an example. keep prices going down, not just going up. price for a gallon of regular gas is down 15% from september, almost down to what it was a year ago. well below the 2022 high of more than $5 a gallon, which is to say, not just that inflation as declined, it has deflated. gas is cheaper now than it was last year, cheaper now than last year. holiday air travel prices, also down, according to the travel deal site, thanksgiving airfare is down 14% from last year and even 7% less and then pretend damac in 2019. christmas airfare, likewise, down 12% from last year. again, these are drops in prices. and as one at the mascots of the holidaseon, the price of turkey, what he managed to spend $90 for, is also down. the first page at the wells fargo thanksgiving report, it's, says, retail turkey prices went from $1.47 per pound down 9% or 15%'s per pound fro october of last year. again, that is not the rate of increase learning, that is actually it being cheaper this year than last year. the problem is that everyone seemingly has an incentive to hike the rise in prices, so there is very little coverage no coverage one costco down. i think leaving people with the impression that things are just materially worse in every category, you're at the year. betsey stevenson served as president barack obama's economists and chief economist for -- let's talk for us about this idea, the difference between a slowing inflation rate, a declining rate, which is clearly happening, and people like yourself and macroeconomic policy thing, words like myself, are excited by the. looks good, but it does not mean that things are getting cheaper. but then there are categories of things actually getting cheaper, and how much that matters. >> chris, i love everything that you're talking about here. first of all, last month, it was a big goose egg. prices did not go up at all for consumers, and that is not because everything was flat but because some things went down, turkey, gas, energy, air fares, and other things one up. on average, prices in the month of october the not change at all. the average though is masking the fact that a bunch of things are going down, and some things are going up. i think it's important that we take a look at all of that, but you're also pointing out that on average, we're not going to see prices coming down, and the reason that is so hard to bring the entire price level down on average, is will have to be bringing peoples incomes down on average to. nobody really wants to. if you want to think about that, i think the easiest way for me to wrap heads around it is, the price in used cars has declined 7% over the last year. that means if you sold that car are not using that much a year ago, you would have gotten 7% more than what you got today. i don't know about you, i actually have an old car in my garage that i wish i sold a year ago. i kind of feel bad the prices are going down, because that means it's worth less than me. you can now imagine, if all the things are going down, the prices of our houses, our stocks, our incomes, that might not feel good, even though we might be able to pay less for something's in the store. and that is why we are not going to see the overall price come down. we just want to see the rate of inflation come down to that nice and easy 2% a year. >> put your finger on why the paradox at the center of this discourse, which is that it's totally reasonable to people want actual deflation. they want the prices to like. they want to see cut some prices, but in the aggregate, inflation across the board would mean a recession. the biggest push in the country ever seen was the great depression. boy, howdy, the prices fall, but that is because all the money was going away, so for the perspective of solving it politically, you can actually solve for that, because you may be worse off. the best you can do is though inflation. >> i think the most important thing politically, i would be frank, is for the prices that are most salient for people to come down. gas prices have to be lower, for people to stare at that pump, it gets them all riled up. we had that food prices coming down, we gotta have gusts prices coming down, and that is the most important thing for people. but the problem is, we have things like medical expenses are flatlining, and people don't pay that much attention to, that even though it is. big >> we should know, the things that have been in these high settings, x for instance, the white house tweeting this graphic today. it's down 20%, bacon 5%. i read 1 million estuaries, and now they're down 20%. betsey stevenson, thank you very much. that is all in for this dna. also activists right now. >> good evening, people,

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