everybody all right? everybody make it through okay? yes we did. good evening, welcome to our special coverage of the third republican presidential primary debate which was held today in downtown miami, florida. the debate just wrapped up seconds ago, after two hours onstage. you can see there, the debate hall, some of the candidates, the five candidates who participated, still milling there. people in the audience the milling there. just finishing up within the last few moments. i am rachel maddow, here at msnbc headquarters, with my colleagues, michael wallace, joy reid, stephanie ruhle and lawrence o'donnell. tonight's debate in miami was a home game for one of the candidates, ron desantis. of course, it's the governor of florida, a heck of a lot good that is doing him. a poll out just before the debate shows governor desantis losing his home state, at least as far as the polling says by 39 points against his constituent, florida man and former president donald trump, who was not at tonight's debate, just like the first two debates, former president donald trump was a no-show again tonight. he was about ten miles away, holding his own competing event which was kind of the standard trump eventing. tonight's event, in downtown miami was the first republican debate not hosted by fox news. it was hosted by our nbc news colleague's lester holt and kristen walker, along with conservative talk radio host hugh hewitt. right at the gates, the matter raiders asked candidates about a question that a lot of them had been reluctant to answer or had a hard time coming up with an answer to, the very basic simple question, when the polling looks like this, why should you be the nominee, and not donald trump? >> donald trump is a lot different biden he was in 2016. he owes it to you to be on the stage and explain why he should get another chance. he should explain why he did not have mexico pay for the border wall. he should explain why he racked up so much the. he should explain why he did not drain the swamp, and he said republicans got tired of winning but we saw last night, i am sick of republicans losing. >> the republicans losing team was a recurring one tonight, which is a little awkward for republican candidate debate. but rhonda sentence there was referring to the fact that the next debate happened just 24 hours after a bang up election night for democrats. democrats and liberals effectively won all over the country last night. a democrat when the governor's race in red kentucky. democrats took both houses of the legislator in virginia. ohioans voted resoundingly to enshrine abortion rights and the states constitution. abortion is a driving force behind democratic victories by around the country right. now andy candidates onstage tonight in miami were asked what the path forward should be for the republican party on this issue, as they keep getting bashed at the polls on this issue, over and over again in blue states, in red states, every time and every way, the question gets asked. some of the candidates were quite gymnastic and avoiding specific answers to that question. south carolina senator tim scott was not one of them. he just jumped right in and said that he wants a national abortion ban. >> senator scott, i would like you to weigh in. how do you see the path forward? what do you make of what ambassador ali says? you see this as a consensus issue? >> i am 100% pro-life. i have a 100% pro-life voting record. i would as president of the united states, have a 15-week national limit. >> stop saying ban, no he slim, but that is the only adaptation that you have seen on that issue. another team of tonight's debate, back for an encore from the last debate, was just the deep palpable, withering discussed that candidate evac ramaswamy seems to inspire from his fellow candidates. he makes them say things that you can't imagine they ever set before in their lives. he makes them make facial expressions on the stage that you're quite sure that they don't know that they're making in public. he really brings out a sight of them that makes news, frankly. here he was with former south carolina governor nikki haley, on a section of the debate about whether the chinese owned app tiktok should be banned. i should mention, this back and forth ended with one of the candidates saying something i have never heard ever in any debate that i have ever covered and all my years on this earth. >> i want to laugh at why if you really did not answer this question, which is about looking families in the eye. in the last debate, she made fun of me for actually joining tiktok. well, her own daughter sexy is in the after a long time. you might want to take care of your family first. >> the my daughter out of your voice. >> you might want to check on your own daughter. the next generation of americans are using, and that is actually the point. [applause] the average supporter pop in her up, that is fine. here's the truth -- >> what she said there was, you are just scum. i think if they all said what they really meant, this could be a lot more clarified. wow, never seen that in any debate at any level, and i have covered somewhere debates at weird levels. but for all of that, this in question hands over the debate as all the others. do the fights between these fine folks matter? is this a real part at the republican party reckoning, what whoever the nominee for the president will be next year, whether the fact that former president donald trump is running 40 plus, in some cas? nicole wallace, i will turn to you first. >> oh, god. >> because you are more reserved than usual on this issue, on watching this debate, i feel like you are more contained, less valuable than i usually see. >> do i have to answer? >> he thought the pitcher to, but he should. >> i wanna say what i really think, that will answer your last question. they don't matter. they don't matter. when i sat down, i said the most exciting part for me is seeing who's there, because i had no idea who is running second to ten. for me, it's exciting to see who is running second, third, fourth, i had no idea who would be there. it does not matter the republican primary voter. take us out of it. nikki haley called, the other guy, scum, okay, but the republican primary voters has weighed in, and they are not into any of these people. they want trump, and they want trump by legit numbers than i think anyone has ever been ahead this many weeks before the first primary contests tonight. i don't know that in modern history, anyone has ever been 50, 60, 39 points ahead of the next person at the november mark, ahead of the first primary ever. >> then why aren't any of them going for the jugular, when it comes to him? the guy was sitting in a courtroom, humiliating himself on monday. he faces 91 counts. they just lost three times, you're right, he is far, far ahead, so for anyone of them, their only shot is to go for him and none of them did. >> that's because they think, they're probably not going to land that shot, and their future republican politics is with this policy, with this group of voters that only like i. if they are seen as because that guy, then there are. toast >> then why did we waste 20 minutes having this subset they've conversation about foreign policy, or some of them made coaching arguments, and we're all forgetting the fact that when it comes to foreign policy, at best, donald trump cozies up to vladimir putin, writes love letters to kim jong-un and most recently, set hezbollah is really darn smart. >> two comments, one, if you could bottle the contempt that nikki haley feels for evac ramaswamy, i feel like you could power a small town with the hate. she hate that guy. >> she hates, yeah. >> oh, my god. you can feel it through the screen. that is one thing, i would say. i think they all don't like him, but she really don't like him. the second thing is, i sort of felt like nikki haley and chris christie are not running for president now. they are sort of beseeching the republican party at the point after trump to come back to, to come back into its body, get there so back antibody, because their whole composition is so disconnected from trump's existence on this earth, they are almost normal. it's really jarring to hear them both sound like normie republicans and a rope in which nobody wants that in that party. >> or maybe they will someday. >> sunday, i feel like chris christie, even his appearance in public, he is begging the party to come back. i don't think he is succeeding. he is going nowhere in the pulse. it could be like a ticket together on some members. >> lawrence o'donnell? >> i must, it's my turn. >> everybody has to actually speak. you can't say i am not -- his a thing, it's not really what i think. yet the so you think. >> let me check my notes. here's my notes. my notes. it was really just that one word, those are my notes. it's easy to remember this is by the way, the first republican debate that i have watched. luckily, i have been working at ten pm during the previous republican debates, and i did not have to participate in any of this. i now see that vivek is the mvp of the panel for this reason. he makes everyone else look better than they were ever going to look because, he is not just the most hated person by everyone on the stage, he's the most unhittable character who's ever had a role in the presidential debating in either party. so she's helping them by being up there. he's making nikki haley look better, look stronger, making everybody up their -- >> humanizing -- >> all of them better. this is the debate for, you know, in case trump chokes on a cheeseburger. that is what this debate is. if somehow, trump falls out, it's going to be desantis or haley. >> this is the question? are they just waiting for him to die, go to jail or drop out, because no one's going after him? >> no, fame is its own currency, politics, especially republican politics, as trump saw. vivek is running for nothing but fame. chris christie wishes to push up his fame, see if there might be more money in some sort of vacancy contra costa this. and i think haley and desantis are the two who think maybe we have a future for years from now, maybe, so we want to play credibly here. and tim scott is going to go back to his quiet life after this, and he is going to be a little bit more famous, and that might help him with talk radio gig or something like that. >> i think the debate is probably irrelevant for the reason stated, unless something happens. out of the three that we have seen so far, it was the more serious debate. we heard some of the first policy criticisms of trump as mentioned, maybe because it's not scary to say that that is high, you can walk it back. they are certainly not dealing with the ethical and legal feelings of donald trump as alleged in so many forms, but we heard more than. i thought the foreign policy was interesting as well. this is funny because, we think our colleagues are great. they did a good job, but even if i was trying to be as objective as possible, i think it's fair to say that there was kind of a more space for a wider range of important issues in america and international in the last debates. full disclosure though, -- i think that is true. we had this conversation that went across two important, very tense war zones, and i think i'd be also heard policy from republicans there who clearly were still trying to figure out, how do you santafee with this somewhat allegedly strong foreign policy lingo while also saying, desantis has it back out hear as a former military -- were not going to get involved. we're not going to get more involved overseas, there's this sort of tough sunday but anti interventionists mode. i don't know what that means to anyone, or if anyone cares, or if these people are going to be in foreign policy or be president, based on what we can tell, two months out, but i thought that was shocking. the last point, the most obvious is, these five voices matter a lot less than all of the voices of so many voters who rejected everything that their party is offering us a day. i'm sure we'll talk about the night. donald trump had to lie and deny about what happened in 2020 and a lot of people have burned up capital joining those lies. some of them will be helped and a trial in march. they underperformed in the midterms. they got slant is today in ohio and virginia. the election denialism, not only is false, a sort of has not been getting high on their own supply. i thought we saw on the abortion discussion, i don't think there is credibility on the lawful nice. but the lofton's, some have been for abortion bans and tried to put another way. i thought that was interesting, again, may not matter, on lawrence is blank no path. but we understand how they want to proceed. >> on your point, the republican position on abortion is more unpopular than the iraq war ever was. just the door of something universally agreed to that had been very unpopular forever. the 85% of all americans for abortion answer instances, not one of those people is speaking to 85% of all americans, not one. and the person that inch the closest was nikki haley and she got a roaring, thunderous applause from the republican primary debate. >> she said i respect people that are pro-choice. >> i was going to say dissenting. the one person that seems to be at least trying to drag the party toward something sin on abortion is nikki haley. she said that, essentially, i don't judge how people vote. i am not happy that people in some states decided to affirm abortion rights, but i don't touch them based on how they are voting. that was at least until she was reaching some sort of consensus, but you go all the way to the other end of it, where tim scott is, like ben abortion right now, i'm not going to let californians decide their own lives. yet chris christie make the coherent point that all of this time, conservatives have been yelling that it should be the states that the site on abortion, and that is -- subtly, they like to a national ban. there were all over the place. i think kristi and haley at least sound like they hear what is happening, the arrested them seemed completely tone-deaf. >> can i ask you as a veteran of republican campaigns on roe v. wade was in place, it seems that the abortion issue in those primaries was more stable, and there was a much closer set of agreed upon ways of talking about it, and so, was roe v. wade, in effect, protecting republican nominees and republican candidates from this kind of exposure that we're seeing now? >> of course, they were straight jacketed, because it was reprehensible to deny exceptions in cases of rape and incest and the life of the mother. it was never considered by the two republican nominees that i worked for, and on the other side was roe, which was decided by justices appointed by democratic republican presidents perceived as this marketing. i worked for a very pro-life president. our for a pro-life candidate for president. there was this policy and language straitjacket were you never, ever contemplated denying the exceptions, which are on the table for republicans and a lot of the state hands, alone a descriptions for the life of the mother. 93% opposition. republicans put themselves on the other three side of the 92%, and they wonder why they lost everything. >> in terms of their political skill in talking about it though, i think you're right, they actually have no idea because the straitjackets retire, they have no idea how to talk about it. there is this proverbial dog catching the car, they've no idea what to do with the, no idea how to talk about it, and the position that the party as found itself, and at their state legislators are imposing and stay out there stay at the state is so wildly unpopular that this backlash will be knocking them back for a long time, it is going to be a long time before they figure it out. >> the public sees through the slice. the whole lie was, these justices saying we're not doing anything right away. they said it under oath, when justice then judge kavanaugh was not crying, he was repeating under oath, we are not going to change anything right away. settle the law, super precedent. >> susan collins said yupe -- >> will take your word. you don't need a law degree to understand what is going on with the lies in your own body, and i think people see through it. they see through it in kansas and ohio, and then when you add to joyce's point, they came to the debate saying, even if we do this, it will still be at the local level, so you have a second say at this. no, that was another lie, and we have seen that. and ohio, what happened yesterday is that ohio's voters in a state that voted for trump twice said, no thanks, we reject this entire republican maga approach, and we want roe level protections enshrined in the same constitution for good. that is a big breakthrough, and that is what they are on the heels about. >> it's 20% more popular than biden, so biden is dealing with 20% on top of wherever he is, take that across the state. >> by the way, they're holding this debate in the state where on desantis was a nonentity, again in this debate, never made a dent, but he had pushed to, and the dead of night, he signed it ad midnight. that is how proud he was of the six-week abortion ban -- >> a total ban. >> and is also hurting the governor of iowa who endorsed, it, also has a six-week ban, it's dragging both of them numbers down, he did know how to address it. >> he did it to glenn youngkin yesterday. >> he did it to glenn youngkin yesterday. he's not learning what the voters are telling them. you know they understand it's bad, because they kept on one big lie, which is that democrats want abortion up until birth, which is not a thing. there is no such thing as abortion up until birth. that does not exist. but they all say it. they keep repeating it. i think even chris christie said it. i don't like the fact that -- >> in new jersey, chris christie says it's happening in new jersey every day. >> that's infanticide. no one gets to nine months pregnant. i have had three humans. you did not get to nine months pregnant and then decide, you know what, i change my mind, i don't want to be pregnant. that is absurd. it's actually libelous to women. it makes women sound stupid and craven and evil. the idea that you think that women having abortions at nine months means you don't understand science, you don't understand women's bodies, don't understand physiology -- >> and you think voters are stupid. >> i do think your voters are stupid. i think there's something interesting in these politics. no >> we're all talking about the committee with which voters are speaking on this issue, and i think that what we are seeing tonight is that republicans have to figure out how to talk about it. the republican who was trying on the stage tonight to speak about it in the way that was most relate-able and less offensive to most of the people listening to her was nikki haley, but what was after -- her piece on it, what was the very next thing she did? she attacked tim scott for not having support at the national 15-week ban. so she is trying to say, oh, no, we're going to try to do this differently in all the states, and we should stop being so divisive and don't try to impose your will on everybody else. and, you, tim scott, you can't be president because you did not sign on to a national ban. >> there is a very important point that you never hear in the presidential debates in either party. she raised the 60 vote threshold. it's hugely important, saying, none of this abortion stuff can happen federally, because you're never going to get 60 votes and the united states senate for any of this crazy stuff that these people are talking about, which also protects her then from not saying that she is going to do one of this crazy, federal laws. the others are all running for king and saying, i can do this, i can't do this. nikki haley is the only one who mentions, oh, yeah there is a senate and you need 60 votes for pretty much everything. >> you know i think you may have to get out. i've watched this all come in, watching it on the air last night, it's clear that pro-life trump voting republicans are voting against the pro-life movement stuff. you don't get to beshear's numbers in kentucky without some of the sheers voters who saw the ads from a rape survivor, who had voted for trump for president, voting for a democrat who supports abortion access. what republicans have done, what they have said to the electorate is not just we will outlaw it, we will make it a crime. even republican voters are voting against the abortion. ohio went down, again, 20 points ahead of the biden number, voted to enshrine abortion rights in the constitution. not only was i not sure that would pass, i never thought it would pass with 20% more support than supports biden. what the voters have heard, and the problem is that they have now branded themselves as criminalizing health care. >> and criminalizing women and having women arrested. by the way, i would argue that mississippi, which has been written off by democrats for decades, that race, brandan presley came within four or five points. he is a staunchly, antiabortion democrat. he is very conservative. i would argue, had you combined that last name, being elvis turnout, so strong out of jackson despite all the voter suppression and with problems that have happened in jackson, there was a surge of voting in mississippi, which is not easy to do. the turnout is usually abysmally low, among democrats. had presley had a different position on abortion, i would argue that that state might have been closer. it would've been closer. >> the dobbs case that overturned roe. all right, we got much more ahead here tonight in our special coverage of the third republican presidential debate. yes, it happened. we'll talk about last night's big democratic wins in several states. we have lots to come, stay with us. >> let's find consensus. let's agree on how we can ban late term abortion. let's make sure that we encourage adoptions, good quality adoptions. let's make sure that we make contraception accessible. let's make sure that none of the state laws put a woman in jail or give her the death penalty for getting an abortion. let's focus on how to save as many babies as we can and support as many moms as we can and stop the judgment. we don't need to divide america over this issue anymore. if we want a more viable future for our kids, we need to find more sustainable ways of doing things. america's plastic makers are investing billions of dollars in new technologies and creating plastic products that are more recyclable. durable. and dependable. our goal is a cleaner, healthier planet for generations to come. for a better tomorrow, we're focused on making plastics better today. if you struggle. and struggle. and struggle with cpap. you should check out inspire. no mask. no hose. just sleep. learn more and view important safety information at inspiresleep.com (♪♪) in this clinic, we pride ourselves on putting others first. it's on us to help care for our clients' well-being; to help them adapt. it's inspiring to work at a place where our patients succeed. and we as therapists do, too. with great benefits from principal, we feel appreciated for the work we do. (♪♪) ( ♪ ♪ ) start your day with nature made. the #1 pharmacist recommended vitamin and supplement brand. is it possible my network could take my business the #1 pharmacist recommended to the next level? it is with comcast business. powering all your devices with gig-speed wifi. and you get fast downloads and uploads. pick it up! pick it up! oh we got this! because it's powered by the next generation 10g network. more speed for your business? it's not just possible. it's happening. get started for $59.99 a month for 12 months. plus, ask how to get an $800 prepaid card with a qualifying internet bundle. comcast business, powering possibilities. >> i think you owe it to the american people, nikki, to at least -- this one time, condemn, at least condemn their banning of christians. >> mr. ramaswamy, thank you. >> i am telling you, putin and president xi are salivating at the thought that someone like that could become president. they would love -- >> the fact of the matter, she does not answer -- >> this is what i will tell you. first of all -- >> you are driving us into china's hands because of these policies. >> first of all, the ambassador has the floor. >> the first thing i will tell you is, we all remember what that thug did when he invaded ukraine. we all know that half a million people have died because of putin, and here is a freedom loving, pro-american country that is fighting for its survival and its democracy. no, i don't think we should give them cash. i think we should get them the equipment and ammunition to win. >> nikki haley, one of the five candidates onstage tonight at the third republican debate in downtown miami. former governor ali, foreign -- they're making a strong case for your support for ukraine and also advocating that we stop funding at the same time. that was one at the repeated sharp interactions between her and vivek ramaswamy. i was looking at my notes ahead of the debate and noting that mr. ramaswamy had publicly promised in this debate that he would be unhinged. that was his promise ahead of time. he came right out at the gate, at the top, attacking kristen welker, and then attacked nikki haley, called her dick cheney. >> shout out to tucker carlson, elon musk, and joe rogan, those are his homeboys. that was so terribly cringy. >> after he shouted out those guys and insulted the femaler, e female candidate onstage, i thought -- he just bowed to joe rogan, and then insulted the first woman that he could see, and then insulted the second woman. i consulted my notes, he has run out of women. but yet, he pulled a rabbit out at the half. he decided to attack nikki haley's daughter, who was not onstage or in the room, as far as we know. i, mean i kind of wondered who he would hit next. >> i kind of feel like he is not running for president, he's running to replace ben shapiro. >> i think he wants a podcast. >> i think it's clear that he feels he could challenge the far right wing podcast crew, he thinks he can get one. the problem is, he is so annoying. no one is going to want to listen to a podcast for an hour, listening to that man speak. >> i think it's going to be a debate club, tiktok influencer. you know how there is -- >> he hates the tiktok. >> no, he is on tiktok. >> he'll be an influencer for debate club boys. i feel like his age range, targeted age range, is like tented at the, maybe, and then he starts itching up. this is not going to help my social life. >> he pretends to be on the business side. he keeps bringing up this ceo label. i can tell you, nikki haley as a lot of wall street donors. they detest him. they detest his brand, so when you look at her rage against him, she feels personally, but she's got a lot of donors behind her telling her keep pushing. tonight, a former cfo for the fortune 500 company -- texted me during the comments. he said, i can't even look at this guy for one more moment. he said, he's like a russian spy that worked as a country can -- that site presents them self, and you wonder, who are his voters? >> i think his whole shtick, which is extremely thirsty and obviously trolling, also is an echo of other problems that trump has caused that may outlast them in the republican party. >> the cheeseburger thing? >> who would have predicted or seen if you look back six or eight years ago that being donald trump's loyal vice president for four years on everything except actually joining a coup that is now a federal trial, would not help you last as long as being the kind of chief content officer wannabe that trump and the reality show and internet ding offers. that is what that is. pence is gone, and vivek is here, as you say, the tiktok podcast fusion project. >> but the other piece of it, i think it does demonstrate the point that, what donald trump has done to the republican party, is he has turned it into pure performance. there is just a performative version of mini-trump, other than haley and christie are trying to be. with him, it is the idea that he says that he is disgraced billionaire -- or this great businessman, the way that donald trump does, but in reality, if you really look at his business, the thing that he bill after getting the george soros big brother, george soros's big brother's grants, which he accepted willingly, even though he had money, it looks more like a puppet gnome than it does a successful pharmaceutical company. -- >> this whole argument, america wants a big successful ceo, the last time a truly successful businessman ran for president, his name was mitt romney, and he was a really successful businessman, and a loss. >> can i say something though? i actually think that ramaswamy is a symptom of something else. the weakness of the rest of them. in old times, he would be gone, because he was a clown. it actually speaks to the weakness of the other people on the stage, that he is still there. >> we're going to be right back. up next, more on the democrats'big wins in ohio, kentucky and virginia, the great steve kornacki will join us here. chris says will be with us in a moment. we had a lot to get to, stay with us. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ there are some things that go better... together. burger and fries... soup and salad. like your workplace benefits and retirement savings. with voya, considering all your financial choices together can help you make smarter decisions. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected. he hits his mark —center stage—and is crushed by a baby grand piano. you're replacing me? customize and save with liberty bibberty. he doesn't even have a mustache. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ the promise of this nation should extend to all from new york to new mexico, from alaska to alabama. but right now, people like you are losing their freedoms. some in power are suppressing voting rights. banning our kids books from libraries and attacking our right to make private health care decisions. we must act now to defend these freedoms and protect our democracy. and we can't do it without you. we are the american civil liberties union, and we're asking you to join us in protecting our democracy at the national level and in communities like yours. call or go online to myaclu.org to become a guardian of liberty today. your gift of just $19 a month. only $0.63 a day will help ensure that together we can continue to fight for the freedoms of all americans, no matter your zip code. if you also believe in the right to vote, the right to free speech, the right to learn, the right to bodily autonomy. please join us now. these are your fundamental rights that people are playing with. and so you need to get involved, because if you don't, then someone else is going to decide whether or not you get to choose what happens to your own body. so please call or go to myaclu.org and become an aclu guardian of liberty for just $19 a month. when you use your credit card, you'll receive this special we the people t-shirt and more to show you're part of a movement to protect the rights of all people. we can't make systemic change in the way that we want to doing it by ourselves. we have to work together because we the people, means all of us. from sea to shining sea. so please call or go online to myaclu.org to become a guardian of liberty today. from pep in their step to shine in their coats, when people switch their dog's food to the farmer's dog, the effects can seem like magic. but there's no magic involved. (dog bark) it's just smarter, healthier pet food. it's amazing what real food can do. sleep more deeply. and wake up rejuvenated. purple mattresses exclusive gel flex grid draws away heat relieves pressure and instantly adapts. sleep better. live purple. right now save up to $900 off mattress sets during purple's black friday sale. visit purple.com or a store near you today. >> the third republican presidential debate has just wrapped tonight in miami. at least one candidate declared war on iran. at least two declared war on mexico. that kind of thing does not even make news anymore. it remains to be seen whether any of the candidates will see a change in their overall fortunes based on the performance in this debate. to the extent that there is any emerging consensus view in the response, is that maybe they think that nikki haley has done herself the most favor of any of the five candidates? i don't know, that was also the consensus view at the last debate, and the candidate who actually got the largest polling bump out at the last debate was one that was not there, donald trump. they've got this what you will. heading into tonight though, let's just have a look at where they are in the standings polling wise, vis-ã -vis the all but prohibitive front runner, the former president. joining us now from the big board is nbc's steve kornacki. can you help us rationalize the conundrum? >> i was going to say, this has been the supply of the debates. really, this has been the main plot at the debates. you have the overwhelming front runner in national and early state polling who has refused to participate, now in three debates. all sorts of predictions when donald trump started skipping debates back in august that he was going to pay a price. let's take a look here. this is the national polling average on the morning of august 23rd. that was the day at the first republican presidential debate. of course, donald trump is not there. it was the one in milwaukee trump's 0. 55% nationally, towering above the rest, but you heard, all sorts of views, his critics and opponents say, if he does not show up, the voters will take this as a sign of disrespect. they'll be getting free airtime to all his opponents to define themselves, to define him. he's going to regret this. he regretted it before by skipping a debate in 2016. that is what we have heard, a lot course that day. the main one off that night, another one went off and september, now, we have had this morning, coming into the debate this morning, what prices trump paid, as you just said, none. none whatsoever. the national polling average this morning, it was at almost 61% of the vote. ron desantis, now participating in his third debate, picked up by eight tenths of a point. we do see nikki haley, she's got good reviews for her debate performance, as she was to 2.8 at the start of the debates, 7. 9 this morning, that's the biggest jump you see from anyone, the biggest positive jump you see from anyone who has participated in the debates. we'll see if she continues to get traction here. but what i think is more striking is, trump had 60. 8% are now. if you combine the five people that you just saw on stage tonight, their combined support is 32 and a half percent. so you saw a lot of squabbling between those candidates on the stage tonight, a lot of attempts to differentiate themselves from one another, but i think, honestly, all of them, what they really need, and they may not get, and it certainly does not look like they will get, they need an opportunity to get trump on the stage with them to make contracts, definitions with him present. trump seems to recognize that. he is strategically staying away. i think the question tonight is, did anyone do anything, or will there be any polling fallout from the debate tonight that will get trump to reconsider the posture? really, we talk about what it would take to win a debate for these candidates, that would be a win for these candidates, getting trump to participate in the next one. >> and literally, steve kornacki, while we have been on the air tonight, we just got news that donald trump has now said he will not participate in the next one, and so, this is one of those moments where your lips to god's ears, really. >> for a second, i thought you're going to say, he was going to, and we will have a moment. >>our lives don > there is a risk of injury. >> that guy played okay, i guess, i don't know. it is like preseason. everyone is making the motions a dating, without the stakes adapting, basically. so, look, in an alternate universe in which, it is nikki haley versus donald trump, maybe even from the beginning, i can kind of come up with a colorable claim that maybe that is a race. i think she is a fairly at the politician. i think just ability to draw from some of the folks who have been disaffected that we see coming up in election after election, particularly in the suburbs to the republican party, particular trump and the market, i can see that being the universe, but we live in that universe. and so -- they all made the strategic decision to not really go after him. so, i think they are all hoping that some comment falls with this guy. >> if that is the point that steph made at the beginning of our conversation, that for the polling universe, to be the world -- the real world in which we are living, earth 1, why is it that none of them are going after them directly? i said, i think it's because in that universe, you can't afford to be an anti trump person because of never having another day of success in republican politics, but, what other choice that they have? i think also about, like, i think about the sag-aftra results tonight, the old labor which side are you on question, right? the elemental logic of which side are you on, you want to polarize the issue. you don't want people in the middle. one of the things you do as an effective organizer is to drive that wedge to polarize people. which i do? one on the side of us or them? trump has effectively done that in the republican party. he has driven that wedge. he has understood that is his role in the party in some ways, is to draw the line between anti trump or pro trump. that's the only dividing line, it's a line to polarize on. he has so successfully done it and there is no evading it. if you're on the wrong side of it, you're dead. >> -- why would nikki haley and ron desantis, who are both young, just sit it out until 2028 instead of putting themselves in the mouth of the lion, doing absolutely nothing, running in circles? why are they even in this game until he's done? >> maybe it's a heart attack. he's 77 years old. i think they're just waiting around for somebody to -- >> a problem of getting in, that decision has to be made before you know how vulnerable or strong trump is. so if someone were to say to you, there is a candidate, could be the front runner, but it is a very strong likelihood he's going to be indicted four times, you might want to get a campaign ready to run against him. these decisions to run were all made before he was indicted once. so they had good reason to think this could be a frail candidacy for donald trump as the indictments mounted up. they now have information that they didn't have at the beginning. that's 60% thing did not exist in their calculations at the beginning. it does now. so all you are looking at now is the planning of their exits and when they get out. a guy like pence is old enough and wise enough to know, i'm getting out before i have one penny of campaign debt. that's the key. he didn't want presidential campaign debt following him around for the rest of his life. these other candidacies, it's really all they need is a bus ticket to the next town. these are pretty cheap candidacies. >> by that standard, what makes it so interesting to watch jack smith, is that jack smith is what campaigns used to be. he's rapidly responding to events as they transpire. these campaigns seem totally incapable of responding to events is they actually are. they certainly got ian exactly in the way that you described it, but he has now been indicted four times. they are candidacies, and if they had any ability could be about taking him out. he was takeout-able at the beginning, and certainly they could have reorder oriented their candidacies as quickly as the prosecutors oriented. >> we decided because chris christie stepped forward. they said okay, he wants to run that experiment, okay, run experience. we saw what happened with christie, we went from two and a half percent to one. so therefore they are looking at the 60% trump voter and saying at any future point in my republican life i have to get those votes. therefore i can ever attacked that guy because i may someday ask for those votes from the people who love that guy. >> much more of our special coverage still to come. we'll be right back. >> i am asking for your vote. i will be a nominee that will be able to win the election. i will be a leader you can be proud of, and as your president, i will not let you down. god bless you. >> governor ron desantis has been hit at least in the online commentariat for his physical awkwardness, clearly working on some of his ticks and affects tonight, but just kind of picking up some new ones that are getting just as much negative attention as his old ones. joining us now from the side of tonight's debate, is former congressman from -- congressman curbelo, so happy you are able to be there on site tonight. thanks very much for joining us. >> thank you, rachel, good to be with you. >> our general take from watching here through the tv screen is that none of these guys has done enough to change the basic course of this race, and being behind 40 points, it's a steep climb, but i think that we generally felt like governor haley is the person probably who comported herself the best and it yourself the most favors. didn't feel that way in the room, to you, watching her in person? >> yeah, definitely, rachel. i agree. i don't think there was any major shift in the dynamics, not even in this race for second place. but nikki haley came across as competent, and she was able to fend off a lot of the attacks that vivek ramaswamy overstepped when he mentioned her daughter the whole debate booed him where as for most of the debate people who supported each candidate we are clapping or booing, but in this case ramaswamy managed to unite everyone against him for that. even then it's a race that was gonna stay as it is. now it's an important race for second place because on the surface this is a very stable, trump versus biden rematch. but there's a lot going on under his service in both parties, so this isn't irrelevant. friends in nbc news did a wonderful job of moderating this debate, it wasn't a circus like atmosphere like the previous two. >> in terms of whose stakes were the highest and the different kinds of dynamics happening beneath the surface, it's a different kind of debate for governor desantis, if only because it's on his home turf. he's in a particularly humiliating situation where donald trump is beating him by 30 point in his own state, and it's a home state debate. but you can see the desantis machine running new software, trying new ways of speaking, trying new ways of carrying himself, trying i think more humanizing ways of addressing some policy issues. do you feel like you are seeing him improve just in terms of what it takes technically to be a candidate? >> rachel, i think he still has got some room to grow, but i think this was ron desantis's best performance, maybe because it's a little warmer here in miami. he seemed more at ease and he has in the past. desantis really needed to separate himself from haley at this point, try to gain some ground, establish himself is the number one trump alternative. that didn't happen. having said that, i think both him and -- turned an adequate performances. they address the issues fairly substantively. i think nikki haley is the only one who understands the peril that the abortion issue represents for the republicans. her and donald trump, who subside steps it every time he's asked. but i see these candidates did what they had to do. some of the lower tier candidates didn't do anything to breakthrough to kind of catch up to haley and desantis. it looks like it's desantis and haley for race for second place which, given the dynamics between the surface, isn't he relevant. >> former's congressman carlos curbelo, at the site of tonight's debate in miami. congressman, great to have you tonight. invaluable. thank you so much. >> thank you. >> we've got much more ahead here tonight. our friend jen psaki will be joining us in the next hour. stay with us. we'll be right back. 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