-- this post authored by John Fernald, Huiyu Li, and Mitchell Ochse
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused massive disruptions to the U.S. educational system. Research on school closures - particularly combined with parental income loss - implies that children are likely to attain lower levels of lifetime education compared with pre-pandemic trends. Projections show learning disruptions could lower the level of annual economic output by 1/4 percentage point on average over the next 70 years. The effect is small the first 5-10 years then peaks at a loss of 1/2 percentage point in about 25 years when the children reach prime working age.