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<p><span>Thank you, Mike, for the introduction. It is a privilege for me to address fellow macroeconomic forecasters, and I thought an appropriate subject would be the challenge of forecasting during the pandemic. </span><span>First, a few remarks about my outlook. Then I will discuss some lessons learned from the pandemic—lessons about the economy s response to this unprecedented event relative to what forecasters, including myself, first thought.</span></p> ....
this post authored by John Fernald, Huiyu Li, and Mitchell Ochse The COVID-19 pandemic has caused massive disruptions to the U.S. educational system. Research on school closures - particularly combined with parental income loss - implies that children are likely to attain lower levels of lifetime education compared with pre-pandemic trends. Projections show learning disruptions could lower the level of annual economic output by 1/4 percentage point on average over the next 70 years. The effect is small the first 5-10 years then peaks at a loss of 1/2 percentage point in about 25 years when the children reach prime working age. ....