Something. I think it wants to go higher t need as nudge. Here is great news. We have lot of folks with their thoughts some even agree. Ed yardeni is bringing back a word jay powell didnt want to hear again. Billionaires are closing ivy league wallets over failure to attack amass on the attack in israel. Jim iurio on that. Plus im making a plea to macys on behalf of miss mable. All that and so much more on making money. Charles all right, lets start with the word of the day, maybe of the last few months with respect to the stock market right, interhooks. Interhooks, the. Tenterhooks. Drying out clot, a novice waiting, that is where we are right . Were seeing some of this news comes out. We get a kneejerk reaction if the tenterhooks release themselves. This is particularly overreaction to the selling side. I think that is the case with respect to retail sales. Who monitors this closely my friend, phil blancato. I like that word. That is where we are. Tremendous debt costing us a lot of money, never ending conversation about recession and worry the consumer will collapse the economy, it just hasnt happened. Charles talk about things coming up, for instance, earnings. You and i talked a lot about this. More recently earning revisions are going down. People like mike wilson say forget about it, earning are flat. Look for s p to go back down under 4,000. What do you make of it . I dont agree at this particular time because the consumer is too strong. We spent 15 billion on halloween. Oil prices hurt. We can survive this. Not a terrible time of year for oil to be higher. Seasonality in place. To his point it is not pan issue. If we dont get an earnings boost, stock market will have a difficult time next year. Charles next year what about this quarter right now . Numbers as we to through guidance will this dictate the fourth quarter. When market is up first three quarters of the year it is almost always up the fourth quarter. Santa class rally, based on positive news we got today. If the fed goes on pause the market will do just fine. Charles i saw where you mentioned 1000dollar car payments. I know you only deal with rich folks. Why are you worried now about 1000dollar payments being the new norm . 70 of the u. S. Economy is based on Consumer Spending. Real fact of Interest Rates pushing this number higher, less spending going into the end of the year. Credit card debt pushing under one trillion. Even this is signs of slowing consumer coming this is not here yet. Charles the big battle when do we tame inflation . This chart i saw is a great on the base effects because the base effects dictate news will be reported one way. I dont think the news will take into account base effects. Will this help or hurt with respect how the fed sees inflation . I think it will help a bit. The base effects is suggesting that the trend is still our friends that the numbers are going down. If you take energy out, housing, rents are back up a loyal built, a concern, oil is a concern, base effects food specifically has gotten a little bit better. It gives the reason to hold on one more time. Charles you talked about seasonality and history. I have to ask you about something here, small cap stocks. Late last year after the october low, coming into this year, first month or two, almost everyone loves small caps. This is why. One year after the bear market low small caps outperform in the red. Small caps outperformed in 82, 87, 902000 two. Not far behind midcaps. Crushed it in 2020. What is the heck going on . Is small cap dream not happening . Higher interest rate, thousand dollar car payments, Student Loan Debt is delaying. Every time you come out of recession, here is what i want incesttores to do, buy bonds because youre getting gigantic yield. Take the yield, give me small caps pair trade. Take that yield to go to start to nibble because youre getting 40 discount to traditional valuation. That is an opportunity. 98 percentile opportunity to go in, make way way in to add to positions as we firm up the economy in late fourth. Charles if it does reignite a lot of room on the upside. A lot of where the puck is going not where it has been. Charles appreciate it, phil. Ed yardeni yardeni research. I start with the word of the day we went over it with fill. Tenterhooks. Nervous waiting, stretching reaction, nervousness. This morning for instance, we get data, the market goes haywire. 10 yield spike in the bond yields then we settle down a little bit. What do you make of it . I think the market has to get a grip realize the economy is doing fine, it is resilient. Despite that resilience and strength were seeing inflation continue to moderate. Things are actually going very well for the economy but i think there is truly all sorts of jitteriness about the middle east situation. I mean depending on the minute that you tune in to the news were either going to see this thing contained or see this thing turn into regional war. So i think we got to get this behind us. Meanwhile the markets have held up remarkably well despite the shortterm volatility. Charles youre right. Listen, i started the show off saying the tape, the way im watching this market, yesterday, for instance, all the sectors are higher. At 1 00 today every sector but two were higher. Then even with respect to the fed there is only still according to the cme fed watch a 38 of a rate hike in december. We started the day at 32 . Right. I dont understand is it machines that make this happen . What are these shenanigans . Investors are watching and theyre really nervous about it. It could be the algorithms of course. I always blame the machines when things go whacky and you cant figure it out. But it could be the traders, the hedge funds they are mostly bearish on bonds and bearish on the strong market. Theyre doing okay in the stock market but the s p 500 seems to have found support at its 200day moving average last week and it bounced off rather smartly off of that. Look, this is a lot of things that are going right here. The atlanta fed just revised their number for real gdp to over 5 . 5. 4 instead of 5. 1 . That is awfully impressive. Consumers keep spending. All this talk about they will retrench, slam out of brakes when they run out of excess savings that is not working out too well. People started to pay their Student Loans again. That doesnt really seemed to have stopped retail sales. Industrial production has been up. Whats the problem really . Charles of course you also, you brought back in some of your more recent conversations i think even the last time we spoke the word transitory. Im not sure if jay powell wants to hear the word out there but youre suggesting maybe he was right, the timeline was just a little bit longer . Yeah i dont think he wants to say it. I dont want to think he wants to get into the conversation whether it is transitory or persistent but certainly turned out to be transitory with regards to the cpi foods. Weve seen deflation in durable goods. Food and energy are doing what they typically do, they to up and down without much ability to forecast. Unfortunately the recent up in september for gasoline is turning into a big downer so far in october. So, i think that has taken some of the notion that inflation is persistent out of the markets. So we just have to wait for Services Inflation to come down. Most of that is rent. We know that current rent inflation has come down. Charles ed, listen, youre a legend on the street but some people are pushing back though on this whole transitory thing. Real incomes have gone down for three years in a row. How can inflation be transitory when it has had this sort of an impact . Well the data shows that theyre right about real incomes last year. Real disposable income, real wages, inflation adjusted wages stagnated, it went absolutely sideways, but really since the beginning of the year were back on the upward trend weve had since 1995 where average Hourly Earnings divided by the consumption deflator is once again on its 1. 2 trend line. Real wages once again are rising as they have been since 1995. Real disposable income has been increasing since the beginning of the year with some volatility. At the end of the day what matters for real gdp accounting is what Consumer Spending is all about. What weve seen is just an increase in surprising the strong retail sales number that led to increase in the outlook for real gdp. That should be out looking backward looking for the Third Quarter should be strong. Charles a couple of firms upped their numbers today as well. Ed, always appreciate it, thank you. Anytime, thank you. Charles coming up the bond signals the end of the fed hikes might be closer than any want to admit. Will den yes, sir talking about that. We talking about america, can certainly underscore that word, certainly afford two wars . Joe lavorgna to help do the math. First, callie cox has data on the retail investor, amazing stuff especially when it comes to a. I. She explain next. This is american infrastructure. Megawatts of power, rails and open road, and essential services of every kind. All running on countless invisible networks, making it a prime target for cyberattacks. But the same aipowered security that protects all of google also defends the systems running americas infrastructure. For these services. For the 336 million of us living here. There are some things that go better. Together. Burger and fries. Soup and salad. Thank you like your Workplace Benefits and retirement savings. With voya, considering all your financial choices together. Can help you make smarter decisions. For a more confident financial future. Hey, a tandem bicycle. You cant do that by yourself. Voya. Well planned. Well invested. Well protected. Dear moms and dads, what you have achieved here today is going to help us and our futures. It is why were coming up on stage to collect your diplomas. Mom, love you always. Vo when you graduate, they graduate. Visit finishyourdiploma. Org to find free and supportive Adult Education centers near you. Charles folks turns out investors may be looking for a new Financial Advisor with the initials a. I. Joining me etoro Investment Analyst callie cox. The numbers from your report today are absolutely astounding. 22 see transformation to a. I. A long term theme. One in five looking to use a. I. Technology to help pick, alter their investments. 50 say theyre embracing the use of a. I. Technology believe it is through the future. I lived through the black box era. 1999, two thousand, amazing black boxes would spit out trading ideas all day long. They went down in flames. The market went down in flames. Tell me it will be different. I cant predict the future, charles. Charles that is what youre on the show now. I hope not, i hope not. When it comes to Market Structure but are you surprised here . Im not. Investors, americans, the world in general embracing a. I. I feel like we moved from the hype stage to really embracing the practicality of it. So it doesnt shock me at all that investors are trying to figure out what all the use cases are in their lives and unsurprisingly theyre turning toward [inaudible] charles it feels like, speaking of technology, feels like her picture froze up a little bit. In the meantime, as we try to unfreeze that, i will bring up the other part this report i thought was intriguing. Big holdings these folks have, now increasing them. Broad come up 21 . Asml 15 , Taiwan Semiconductor up 15 . People believe in the chip stocks, dont they . Yeah. I hope you can hear me now. Charles i can. Do you hear me . Im so sorry about that. Yeah, so speaking of a. I. Again i was talking about us going from the hype to the practicality part of the cycle. That is what weve seen from our customers as well. That data you saw is increase in holders across our Global Platform of certain semiconductor stocks, and i really think the a. I. Picks and shovels trade is picking up that is why youre seeing increase in holders in semiconductors, hardware manufacturers, software. People now justifily see the a. I. Theme as a little expensive, a little overvalued. Theyre looking for the secondary stories behind it. Im encouraged Retail Investors are stepping forth and not just blindly buying into a. I. Theyre being more intentional about it, trying to understand where the opportunity is. Charles speaking of that what is the overall mood or temperament of Retail Investors right now . Theyre surprisingly optimistic, charles, optimistic but skeptical. We survey Retail Investors often but we do it quarterly the retail beat. They are getting nervous about the economy. Recession is becoming more of a risk in their minds and they are loading up on cash a little bit more but theyre being selectively strategic or, actually selectively tactical is probably the better word with their portfolios which i think speaks to their financial situation. The fact that the job market is still strong. Charles before i let you go, we have a piece, you put out in twitter, earnings season important numbers, you wering forward, johnson johnson, proctor gamble, they came out this morning. Want to talk about netflix and tesla. Implied, options implied moves. Were talking about seven 1 2, 5. 2 . These are big, big moves. Are people buying calls into this . Are they sort of tilted toward being long these as they come out as they are released . Well you have to think about where these stocks have been, charles. These stocks have performed, were talking about netflix and tesla they performed extremely well over the past year. So i think investors could be nervous going into these earnings reports especially because earnings estimates are high. It is a food thing that estimates are moving higher. That also raises the bar for investors. These are very two popular stocks on our platform. Investors are being optimistic but realistic. Rates are high. Things dont feel great around us. Many are looking to protect their gains. Charles callie, thank you very much, appreciate it. Talk to you again real soon. All right, folks were just two days away from my special edition of making money, unbreak ann investor, 2 00 p. M. Eastern. We have two swapper stars joining us Evander Holyfield and annie duke. It is not too late to get your free ticket. Go to eventbrite. Com, search Charles Payne. This will be a lot of fun. It is based on my knew book unbreakable investor, you can get for free but you have to cover shipping. Unbreakableinvestor. Com, get your copy. You will love it. Reminder two new episodes in my podcast, Charles Paynes unstoppable prosperity, go to Charles Payne podcast dotcom or wherever you get your favorite podcast. Putting the money where their mouth is. They are cutting ties to universities over their stand on israel. Secretary yellen america can absolutely fund to two wars, is that crazy . I cant wait to ask former white house economist joe lavorgna after this. The biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. It still does. What can you do with spy . Explore endless design possibilities. To find your personal style. Endless hardie® siding colors. Textures and styles. Its possible. With james hardie™. Is it possible to fall in love with your home. Before you even step inside . Discover the Magnolia Home james hardie collection. Available now in siding colors, styles and textures. Curated by joanna gaines. Its easy to get lost in investment research. Introducing j. P. Morgan personal advisors. Hey david. Connect with an advisor to create your personalized plan. Lets find the right investments for your goals okay, great. J. P. Morgan wealth management. Charles all right, folks, this is the battle. On one hand the Federal Reserve is trying to tamp down this economy, tamp down inflation. On the other hand the federal government says were going to spend and spend, youre stuck in the middle. Gerri willis will explain. Reporter charles, thats right. This morning jpmorgan upping Third Quarter gp for cast. The firm says there is no reason to believe it will slow in the fourth quarter. In addition to Consumer Spending until they cant anymore the federal government has a ton of spending still in the pipeline. Look at the spending in the queue from the inflation reduction act, chips and science act, infrastructure jobs act. This is massive spending which wont help the bond yield situation. With bond auctions already struggling one must wonder where the buyers come from next and what kind of yields will they demand this is a serious problem for publiclytraded companies as well. Ed goods news for the s p 500, less than 5 , have interest expenses greater than operating cash flow but the maturity wall could be brutal that is for smaller names. Seems like the real battle as you say, charles, is between the Federal Reserve and federal government. Back to you. And guess what . Were stuck in the middle. Thank you very much, gerri. Lets pick up on this battle. On one hand stamp out inflation and on the other hand keep stoking it. We have chief economist will denyer. What do you make of that. We have all the cash coming in from all these programs still in the pipeline. On one side, on the other side of this the fed is trying their best to slow this economy. Yeah, i mean for me the Monetary Policy is very tight now. I do think this is starting to show up in the disinflationary trend in inflation but youre right, we do have quite a bit of fiscal spending. I think the government got two parts of government, the fed has made the tough decision to try to get inflation under control after letting it get way out of control. Fiscal policymakers have not made any tough decisions yet. Charles so your october 12th report, u. S. Debt sustainability, fed to the rescue, i mean it will have to keep come to the rescue. Right now at very moment 10year yield up 15 basis points. For last couple days, everyone saying 4. 89 would be the high. You Start Talking 5 , even from a psychological point of view, feels like all hell will break loose . Yeah. So the purpose of the piece was to ask whether the fed is going to come to the rescue. Right now they are absolutely not coming to the rescue. The fed is contracting its Balance Sheet. It is owning less and less treasurys every day. The question with yields pushing higher, with the outlook for the u. S. Debt on a very unsustainable path, will the fed be forced to reverse course and start doing quantitative easing again and loading up its Balance Sheet with treasurys to help finance the government. Im at this point im pretty swept call. As long as the fed is fighting inflation, has short rates high, if it does more qe what effective is doing trading in relatively low yielding debt at the long end for short term liabilities because the fed now pays interests on its reserves. Actually doing qe would not actually help the overall interest costs of the government. Charles what were seeing right now then, with respect to the bond market is a lot of this then out of the control of the fed . In other words were looking for someone to come to rescue a knight in shining armor. Or what jay powell said a year ago come to fruition . Were feeling the pain and it is starting to impact equities as well. For me bond yields, you know, could go higher. Could stay where theyre at. It is hard to say. The i think theyre at a point now where they have could break something in terms of the broader economy. And at some point that will bring yields back down. But for now there is the supply and demand dynamics are terrible. Foreign Central Banks are not wanting to buy u. S. Debt. Private institutions are buying u. S. Debt at higher cost because theyre price sensitive than say the fed or foreign Central Banks. Weve got a terrible supply and demand dynamic. So i would stay well away from equities, stay in fixed income, perhaps keep duration short for now because the long end is really struggling from these supply and demand dynamics. Absolutely no doubt about it. Will, thank you very much. Appreciate it. Joining me now former white house chief economist, nsbc, chief economist joe lavorgna. Pick up on that. These bond yields are spiking big time right now. Would the fed, could they change their mind . Last time they said they would do quantitative tightening. They didnt come anywhere near the goal they put out there. They have reversed course before. They have reversed course many times, charles. The only positive of this move which by the way is in the real yield. The real yield has risen which is in economic jargon the risk premium has gone higher that will make it much less likely the fed will raise rates in november or december. This backup is doing a lot of the feds work for it. Charles which is what the fed started saying a week ago. Which is what they want. At some point Monetary Policy moved way too hard, way too fast, why we bankrupted some cases small regional banks, some big ones actually. The fed added 340 billion of liquidity back in march we would have recession back then. There was shotgun marriage, twine with ubs. If the real economy to roll over, starts to weaken, job growth negative, unemployment rising above 4 . The fed will pivot. They dont have that right now in their forecast. They are content the way things are now. Charles they wont pivot until the damage is done. More damage could be in the pipeline they wouldnt even be able to do anything about. Thats right. Charles they will not presume these things. They will wait for it to happen. A little bit like a sunburn. Youre in the sun you get burned. You dont get burned while you were there. You file it the next day or day after. The monetary policies, long variable lags. They raises the rates a lot. Yields highest since 06, 07. Productivity growth is a lot lower. This concept of neutral real rate is much lower. Given where rates are now, hard for me to think at some point this wouldnt really hurt the consumer and the business. Charles obviously switch a little bit, back and forefront a lot of our minds what is happening in israel and the gaza strip and janet yellen saying, rather cavalierly that we could afford, handle two wars, again saying the american taxpayer should probably continue to write big checks for ukraine and be prepared to write big checks, by the way we spot 2,000 soldiers out there now. I dont like when they talk like that. That worries me. To keep on the economic side, charles, were seeing the yield curve bear steepen. Never happened before. We never had a situation charles six weeks in a row. If the fed was done in july, what weve seen occur in the bond market has never happened before. The market clearly is worried about excess supply. This years budget deficit or last years budget deficit was 380 billion or so higher than where it was, even the ombs own forecasts, latest show historically high debttogdp ratios in an expanding economy. Our ability to pay what we want to pay for might be called into question. I might take some issue with the secretarys viewpoint. Charles let me real quick, i saw a note that in the uk theyre going to put a pause on their labor data. Theyre admitting that something is wrong with it. It doesnt match reality. This is something that we quibbled about here. I think the survey now down to 41 nor the bls jobs report. It is really awful. No one is taking the surveys. Most of them are antiquated. Were basing policy off this stuff. Thats right. The Establishment Survey is down 40 . From upwards 65, 70 . Jolts survey down to 30 . So the data quality isnt great. The good news the government eventually gets it right and take the tax receipts and about mark High Frequency sy data to the receipts. Problem in real time policymakers responding to numbers charles real time we get policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. In real time we give the federal government which campaigns off fake numbers one way or another, get things gerri showed us. This wont be a problem because of this. It is all based on a house of cards it feels like . We have to be careful charles i wont say house of cards based on a a fallacy, we dont see the light. There are good things we can do about it, charles but that is for another time. Charles hurry up, my man. I dont know how long we can keep playing this thing. I think potempkin with the villages, right . Two colleges lost major donors on their stance with israel. Jim iurio on his analysis with that. Where he sees the market going. Erin gibbs Sees Opportunities but you have to be nimble. She explains with her yearend out look right after this. Teeth sensitivity is so common. It immediately feels like somebodys poking directly on the nerve. I recommend sensodyne. Sensodyne toothpaste goes inside the tooth and calms the nerve down. And my patients say you know doc, it really works. Im on a journey to discover the human story of gold. How it shapes us. Were going down . And our world. Its a story. I thought i knew. Turns out its far more incredible. It takes your breath away. Than i ever imagined. My relationship with my credit cards wasnt good. I got into debt in college and, no matter how much i paid, it followed me everywhere. Between the high interest, the fees. I felt trapped. So i broke up with my Credit Card Debt and consolidated it into a lowrate personal loan from sofi. I finally feel like a grownup. Break up with bad Credit Card Debt. Get a personal loan with low fixed rates. Borrow up to 100k. And no fees required. Go to sofi. Com to view your rate. Sofi. Get your money right. Charles excuse me. Im an avid tape watcher. That is all i do watch the tape. For 10 years i didnt go to the bathroom from 9 30 to four. Too much information but i love watching the tape. When you watch it closely it always gives you a message. To me i think this market wants to go higher. Much back to the jobs report we opened down under a lot of pressure. All the talking heads, we came back that day, we come back last monday. We came on strong, even thursday, friday, markets were down there was news on both days. We gapped open 4345 on the s p. Went to 4338. We turned back around. By 1 00 all but two sectors were actually, were actually higher. And right now six of these sectors are still higher. I want to bring in main Street Asset Management llc chief investment officer, irrin gibbs i im glad you didnt have me read the address also. Youre a tape reader. Yep. Charles what love you have the market tell the story. A lot of people come in, the market has got it wrong. What are you hearing from this market . Both yesterday and today we see a lot of breadth. Even this chart is showing us even two sectors that are down are basically flat, right . Were seeing everything but two. Yesterday everything was up. That is telling us this is a rising of all ships type of market. You get materials, you get thats a big bounce back. Charles you get financials, materials, you get staples. So it is a combination of things. Six of these sectors are still up. Communications services are still up. So you get a little bit of growth but you also have some of these other names. How important is it again to start to broaden out . I think this is important in that its really been a complete change from when weigh saw in september in that we knew we were oversold at the end of september. Ever since sort of october 6th weve been seeing the markets recover. They have realized they were oversold. Now could this be an october bounce kind of type ever thing . Because we do see it across the board. Very possible. Charles right. Im note not calling this a full bull market yet. At least we have another more weeks to run. The areas well see continuation of this run will be in your cyclicals. Like in your technology, consumer discretionary, Communication Services internet, those type of charles you put out earnings today. Yes. Charles Third Quarter, so the names youre talking about, there coincide with the fact theyre expecting stronger, i mean pretty impressive these are some big numbers. Charles right. This is not just from the Third Quarter but you look at fourth quarter, going into 2024 these are your leaders. Right. So technologies they will get you through the next four quarters that is the leadership. Now that they were oversold theyre starting to look a little more fairly valued, even still expensive in some cases but i think were looking at some possible good entry opportunities here. Charles is that what youre telling your clients . Listen, listen, we know when it feels bad, when people want to sell, they want to give up that is when youre supposed to be buying. Right. Charles having these conversations all the time feels, boy we got to have it. For me every time i have this conversation with people they listened to me, for the most part they were happy but getting them from here to there is not always easy. One thing we could still face a couple more rate hikes. We could get some really bad negative news at the beginning of the year could send, even if their earnings look great their valuations will still get compressed. We will still see this Choppy Movement we dont go anywhere are they go flat. You have to trade quickly to make more money, stay in it or wait until profits at the end of 2024. Charles that because the fed continues to loom large . Casting that dark keeled shadow. I would love to talk about fundamentals again i would. It is about the bond market. When im investing in equities i still like to start with fundamentals but i know we have some major headwind from the bond market. Charles before i let you go, 15 basis points today, iaea, that is hell of a move. We have 4. 89. If we get up there we dont break out, still maybe a buy signal . If we break particularly above the 5 that is what everybody is sort of on the lookout for. That could, that could be a really, a big gamechanger. Charles i think back in the day they called that katybarthedoor. Thank you. Charles thanks a lot. All right folks, coming up my takeaway on, the strong consumer, what theyre buying. It aint what strong consumers buy. First Ivy League Schools are saying forget it. They have snatched 500 million from those Ivy League Schools that refuse to condemn the hamas terrorist attack. Jim iurio to brick that down, along with intriguing things happening with student loan payments. He is next. Is i. Before you even step inside . 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Get way more into what youre into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. Heres why you should switch from chrome to duckduckgo. Duckduckgo is a browser you download to your mobile and desktop devices. Unlike chrome, the duckduckgo browser has privacy builtin. It comes with a private alternative to google search, which doesn■t spy on your searches, and it blocks cookies and creepy ads. And theres no catch. Its free. We make money from ads, but they dont follow you around. Join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on mobile and desktop today. Charles Ivy League Colleges facing the wrath of large donors, this after failing to condemn the hamas terror attack in israel. Harvard, university of pennsylvania being hit the hardest right now, bigname donors pulling out big time. Tjm institutional director jim iurio. These two schools i think could see the loss of half a billion dollars alone. Just your thoughts . It is about time. I have written down a quote i had on my desk, since she said it, harvard president said our university engages Free Expression. We know what level of nonsense. Were there efficacy of masks, vaccines, the lockdowns during the pandemic. There wasnt Free Expression allowed about that. If someone asks to right a essay to go there, conservative ideals being a corner stone who they are, if they dont grade off those people. Im surprised billionaires a lost conservatives give money too. I dont know why they give money to hillsdale and dont keep giving money to these institutions. I dont know if you saw the cornell professor came out described situation when he heard about the news on hamas massacre as exhilarating. I dont know if he is cornell professor, on the cornell faculty. He was energized by the news this is some evil stuff. If this is month ago, they want to have debated about the way palestinians been treated, israel, they dont lose that debate. I have no problem with that debate. For these people to come out the day after it happened glorify it, have none of the institutions say one thing that is a misstep i hope haunts them for decades. Charles it is beyond the pale, right . Fact of the matter weve seen this coming. These sort of things have been emboldened to your point. You know, hypocrisy has been in our face for so long, youre either right kind of person or youre a wrong kind of person in a place were supposed to all be the right kind of people. That is america. With this topic, with the administration trying desperately to pay off the Student Loans to the most fortunate people on the planet, 1 of the 1 of the planet earth. If you have a degree from most u. S. Universities will live longer, live better and your children. 99 people on the planet i dont know why were paying off the loans . They do it to dangle in front of people they have these loans in front of the election to have it pull back after the election there is no argument for paying off Student Loans. The only argument makes any sense, 10 to 12 years ago when the federal government took over this program and became the predatory lender and value ad defender studies degree with the same remuneration it does a stem degree the only thing that you can take away from that they wanted to keep saying yeah well pay for your Student Loans if you just vote for us. It is asinine policy. Throw in the fact over 2 1 2 years weve been dealing with rampant inflation. At the same time i can name note just this program, four other Government Programs seem almost intentionally trying to fuel inflation. Im talking about the inflation reduction act, spending bill that did that as well. This to me the fact theyre slowing it down now is great but it still done a lot of damage already. Charles jim, janet yellen saying there is no big deal. We can fund two wars, two foreign wars. The bond market saying today maybe we cant. What is going on . The bond market last wednesday auction of the 30 years it was not an absolute disaster but it was a bad auction. We wanted to sell them at 4. 8. That is somewhat of a big deal. Now were seeing auctions dont have the sponsorship of Federal Reserve. Well see where the market actually prices our debt. The market is saying this, there is too much issuance. One of reason 10 years, 30 years gone through the roof. You and erin being more rosey on the stock market. I hail to be on the other side of erin, i dont agree. Two year yields shooting up to 5. 22 in a matter of days is pretty alarming. I think the long end is reflecting the fact they have no intention of even considering spending, that theyre spending too much. They will increase issuance and that is what im worried about. Charles i got 30 seconds. Where does the dollar play into all of this . So the dollar is interesting. I think this whole thing weakens the dollar but everybody who trades the dollar, looks at the dollar in terms of dollar index which is against a bunch of other Central Banks doing nonsense as we are. The dollar is getting weaker despite the fact it looks stronger. Thats why i think things like gold have rallied 100 bucks in the last week or so. Yes, it is global unrest. Global unrest coming with the fact well get higher more profligate sending federal government. That is one of reasons gold is going higher and i think goes a higher from here. Charles jim, great stuff. Appreciate the conversation, thank you. Thanks, charles. Charles coming up my takeaway maybe we shipment say the consumer strong because of the retail report. Wait until you see what they were buying. Also imputting on a plea for miss mable. You want to hear this next. 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So, if you have medicare and medicaid, call the number on your screen now and speak with a licensed humana sales agent. If youre eligible, they can even help enroll you over the phone in a humana Medicare Advantage dualeligible special needs plan. So, call now. Humana. A more human way to healthcare. From pep in their step to shine in their coats, when people switch their dogs food to the farmers dog, the effects can seem like magic. But theres no magic involved. dog bark its just smarter, healthier pet food. Its amazing what real food can do. Charles all right or, well, the headlines glared another strong retail sales report, and im thing something aint right, right . Autos were up bigtime, and im sure it has something to do with those 72month i auto roans which werent even on the books until the Third Quarter of 2018. If people are working, theyll take that kind of a deal, plus, it sounds better than a 60month auto loan at 7. 8 . Back in the day you couldnt get these kind of deals, i but what really caught my eye was the miscellaneous store sales. This is u. S. Industry comprised, enterprise establishment, rather, primarily engaged in dealing with new and used general merchandise if except for warehouse club, superstore, those are not counted. These establishments have gentlyused products and other lines in limited amounts with none of the lines predominating, industry also a includes establishments primarily engaged in new and used merchandise on an auction basis, and im thinking, what the hell does that mean, right . Is that army surplus stores, dollar stores, closeout stores . If it is, a spark in those does not say strong consumer. By the way, what happened to all the shares of all the retailers . That also didnt say doesnt say strong consumer. Credit card clip again are sayses are going up, and by the way, speaking of consumers, a good friend of mine retched reached out on behalf of her old schoolteacher, miss maple, whos going to turn 104, apparently macies has macys has taken away he can credit card her credit card because of age. So for the folks at macys, maybe consider giving miss maple back her card in time for her birth i day. This would be the macys that used to be a proxy for a wholesome if america. We did reach out to macys for comment. I want to give you a little tidbit here. Did you you know social security, what they do is they give annual dinners to folks over 100 in every state, and we were told that the oldest a attendee was 116 years old. If they have any talent, theyre welcome to come up and perform, could be bird whistling, dancing, reading a poem or miss maple could read one of her poems. A schoolteacher, beloved, macys, you might be doing the right thing. This market trying to find some equilibrium, but its being held down by the bond market. Its become the central story. These yields are hard to explain, and they certainly keep going in the direction that none of us want to see. The last hour of trading is going to be really, really wild, so i suggest that you buckle up. Now, the good news is youve got the best in the business glidin. Liz claman. Liz well try to live up to that. Splitting our focus due to major breaking headlines. Were going to divide the screen here. Markets at the moment have reversed and are mostly down. The Dow Jones Industrials had been up 163 points. It is now down 108. The s p lower by 15. The nasdaq down 74. Russell 2000 is the only one in