Thing the stock market open the lower, started fighting back after hotter than expected cpi report. Here is the good news. We have some of the most brilliant mind in the business, we have ken fisher, steven ought. Constance hunter peter morici, paul schatz. Today is oneYear Anniversary of the market bottom. Doesnt feel like a bull market, does it. This bond yield thing has a lot of hedge funds, hedge funds are more short the market than ever. They keep talking about black friday. Later on in the show i will share how to make you unbreakable ininvestor. Today ask ills one of those prime days and more on making money. Charles so heres the breaking news, this just happened a few minutes before they came on the air. They had an auction yesterday we had a 10year auction. It was not a good auction. Dealers had to eat almost 19 . Anything over 14 is usually not a good market. Yesterday we had that. We had a 30year bond auction. You know what the Federal Reserve bid on, goose egg, nothing. That is sending shockwaves in the stock market. Looked like we would have amazing session. Were coming down a lot. Talk about where we are, how we got here. The good news, right . This is the the one Year Anniversary of the stock market bottom. Go back to 1950, first year always absolutely fantastic. The second year pretty good, average 14 higher so thats the good news. Here is the thing though. Dont tell hedge funds because i can tell you hedge funds are short this market big time this is the yellow line. This is where hedge funds are short. Go back to march, they actually got short before the market came down. They were spot on back in march. I hope and dont think they will be this time. This is a huge, gargantuan bet they have made. Now heres the thing. Theyre taking their cue from the bond market. That 10year yield, heres the thing, you talk about history repeating itself. This is what they call black monday. The single worst day in the stock market as history. S p off more than 22 . Retracting yields the same way. Could history repeats itself . I got to tell you it is really, really tough. One of the things stopping at least so far this market from imploding it continues to be these Technology Stocks. Communication stocks and Technology Stocks they refuse to let the ship go down. Until we turned around 40 minutes ago this is what it looked like. Technology leading the way. Semiconductors leading the way within technology. I want to bring in slatestone wealth, their chief Market Strategist kenny polcari. Kenny, start with the bond auction t wasnt on the radar per say. Yesterday the 10 year was not good. I was surprised the market finished higher. The 30 year, goose egg, the fed is not in there. Right. Look what happened to stocks. When that realization came out we saw the market take another leg down. I still think the market will take a leg down. I think the fed is making a mistake by pausing. That is what they told every one. They set that stage. I think inflation, we saw it with the cpi and ppi yesterday and today is rearing its ugly head and remaining sticky. I think it is a very curious spot. Im not necessarily surprise what were seeing. Before that though were you surprised Information Technology up again . This has been a remarkable story. It has been but i have to tell you people, listen its not going away. Technology is not going away. A. I. Not going away, information, cyber, none of that is not going away. Im not surprised that continues to be a strong sector but if they start, if the market starts to get weaker, people get nervous, well see those sectors because theyre the best performing sectors turn right around. Charles i think were on the cusp of a major short squeeze. Go back to friday the johns report. Low of the session. Low of the session. This is where we close. This is five days to go. We had it going today all of sudden were here. We. We were on the cusp of a major right at that 200day moving average. You made the point on the opening hedge funds are major short. Theyre looking to this market crack. If the market doesnt crack that will be all i can builtin buying power. Im looking 4414. If we get up a little bit higher we start to squeeze those shorts. They will all jump in, run in at same time well be making new highs before you know it. Charles the days hike today embolden them even more. Thats right, thats right. It does create anxiety. They think at this point they are right. Maybe they are. We shall see. Charles youve been pretty selective. Now youre looking at some defense contractors. Clearly what is happening in the world it makes more sense. You and i had this conversation. Aerospace defense has been under pressure all year. Honestly it was illogical considering what is happening in the world even before what happened last weekend. Now what is happening last weekend i look at these two names. If you look at them they recovered all kissing the highs, keep going hike this, theyre about to explode up, textron and booz allen. Charles what is the next big event, kenny or something not scheduled that gets this market moving in your mind . Charles do we do the whole cycle all over again, wait for the next job report, cpi number, ppi number . Earnings well start tomorrow. We heard from delta, pepsi, great numbers, great guidance, Going Forward, raised prices they protected their margins. Is that what well see Going Forward in the earnings season. Im not necessarily so sure but look the fed is only week 1 2 away from making their decision. While i think that they are going to because i think market will tell them that is a mistake. Charles it is interesting, you market you think wants to see more rate hikes . After what we saw yesterday and today with the cpi that the market will demand more rate hikes because they dont want a repeat of 19791980. When you and i were young bucks. Charles im still a young buck. Kenny polcari, folks. Later in the show i will share more lessons from my new book, unbreakable investor. That is later in my takeaway. The 10 year obviously has been on a tear since the fomc meeting that concluded on sent 20th. Here is the thing, after that, jay powell he articulated some things, bond yields if you remember going into that meeting, 4. 31. Since then weve been high as 4. 89. We kind of retraced this week. Still the momentum is to the upside with the bond yields. Crossmark Global Investment chief strategist victoria fernandez. Victoria before we start that, market shaking off 30year bond auction absolute must, following yesterdays 10year bond auction a absolute bust. What do you make of that . Both of those following the threeyear auction earlier that wasnt that great either. I think it is telling us people are looking for either more yield than what they have seen this week or there is the concern we dont have the buyers out there for all the supply that is coming to market. Not only buyers here but the foreign buyers that normally step in and support these actions arent there. Not only are they not buying, charles, theyre actually selling some of these typical foreign buyers are now selling. Charles yeah. It puts us in a precarious position. Charles okay, again, china, i read anywhere from 50 billion recently, from 400 billion from what they had. Japan now they removed yield cap, maybe japanese buyers are buying their own bonds. Exactly. Charles saudi arabia has been a seller. Our Federal Reserve bid on this much, zero, goose egg on 30 year. That is sending shock weaves through the entire market right now, turning everything upside down. What gives though. They always say victoria are always buyers for bonds if the yield is right. Does this mean 5 yield on the 10year . I dont think you can rule it out at all. Look i manage fixed income portfolios. I would like to see higher yields in my clients so we can go in there to buy some of this but i think you have to be very cautious. 5 is a very big psychological level. I think if you hit 5 on the 10year youre definitely going to see a pullback in the equity markets. Technicals are actually telling you it is about 5. 10 to 5. 20 is the actual level that will cause distress in the equity markets but i think getting up to 5 will be probably close enough. Not going to see that right now i dont believe because of the flight to quality that we have seen and the more dovish speak that weve gotten out of the fed this week. Charles yeah, thats been, again it felt like if the stage was set, today was going to be a major short squeeze day but but it is counter fact all now. You talked about stress on markets. Talk about the some of the potential market moving news, geopolitics, shutdowns, strikes, oil hikes, rate the outcome of probability for these . I think theyre all kind of waiting in the wings and can be what actually pulls this market back to what a lot of people were expecting here at the end of the year. Obviously strikes are going to be key. We saw a big hit to ford today with 8700 workers coming out of their most profitable plants. Thats going to be huge. What us did that mean in regards to the other strikes were seeing . Health care workers, hospitality workers what that means for wages and inflation. Thats a huge component. I think by no means are we out of the danger zone for a government shut down. I think we just pushed it further later into the year. I dont think we got beyond it. Look that will cause more volatility in this market, higher oil prices, higher yields, all of it is telling us this is uncertainty. People are questioning what the markets are going to do and you know what that means . You see a lot of people go into cash. We have about 6 trillion sitting in cash in money markets right now which could be a huge push to the market if we get past some of these elements. Charles we call that dry powder. We have to live long enough to take advantage of it. Golly, right now there is a sea of red ink out there. Im glad we had you victoria. You helped us out a lot. My pleasure. Charles now to israel, day six of the war. Israeli airstrikes continue to pound gaza. This in preparation for a possible ground assault. More than 1200 israelis have died. Secretary of state blinken landed in tel aviv. He promises more help to defend isis, quote as long pass america exists. By the way now the count is 27 americans who have been killed in hamas attack. 14 remain missing. Fox corporation has made a one Million Dollar donation to the united jewish appeal. 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Join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on mobile and desktop today. Hi, im jason. Ive lost 228 pounds on golo. So when my doctor told me i needed weight loss surgery, by downloading duckduckgo i knew i had to make a change. Golos helped me transition to a healthier, sustainable lifestyle. Im so surprised just how crazy my metabolism has fired up. I have a trust in golo cause i know it works. Golo isnt like every other program out there, and im living proof of it. announcer change your life at golo. Com. Thats golo. Com. Charles all right, folks, earnings season begins tomorrow. Major banks posting their financials for the quarter and my next guest, well he is taking a page from dr. Suess and says i am not a buyer, i do not love banks. Joining me Heritage Capital president paul schatz. What do you mean i am not a buyer, i do not love banks. What is going on . None of them . We have jpmorgan and unfortunately we bought truist. I got excited about the dividend yield. Im not saying banks will collapse. Im saying this, they are performing underperforming. More i think it is like dead money. They will bounce this around in some range, 10, 20 range. I think you have to get through whatever economic soft patch is coming next year but the real estate part is this this is not the 80s real estate, it is not a collapse. Charles right. It is a slow drip, kind of a tortuous process. In the 80s, individuals and corporations owned the real he state. Banks took it. We had the problem there. Now you have the funds that have the real estate. So what the funds doing . Theyre defaulting and saying you know what . Lets default and we can buy it back at auction. Charles right. Very different work around. You get paid with nice dividends. I think you can make a lot more money same risk elsewhere. Charles some of the bigger banks have acted very curiously. Citi, bank of america. Charles if you believe in the tape up to be nervous. Let me switch to bonds then because i think you like bonds although we started the show with the 30year bond auction. I dont know if you were in route to the show or not but it was a disaster. Yeah. Charles the fed bid on zero. That triggered a massive we were moving up pretty good. This is how we were looking with the bonds. This is a tough one. This is a tough one. Youre a buyer, right, in general of bonds, maybe not agg you about bonds in general. Here is my thesis on bonds can use agg or 10year treasury. We had insane spike, looked like a dotcom stoke couple weeks ago where the 10year yield was 4. 90. It backed off to 4. 60. My thesis is this. Take a shot in the bond market, im wrong, take a small loss move on. I think there is more evidence that perhaps the 4. 90 area, a little hire than 4. 90 on the 10year that could be more after durable peak. Charles right. Which means even if bonds dont run hard they could go sideways but have pretty good coupons. Charles would that be, do you use stops on bonds . If we got north of 4. 90 would you consider bailing out i would give it a little more room on the 10year. Probably give it into the low fives. I have wouldnt use a hard stop. The machines run you out. That you know from stocks. Charles this is what paul is talking about. 4. 90 here. 4. 30 here. This is the fomc meeting. We made this move. That 4. 60. 50 retracement fibonacci if that holds great. If you go through that lower. Charles it held, it held were now back up 15 points on 10year right now. I would take a shot under 4. 08, with a stop somewhere in the low fives. Look i could be wrong . Absolutely a softer economy is coming next year. Maybe we peak here or a little bit higher but i think you got a big, a year or two or threetime horizon bonds will be a winner. 3 00 a me three amigos other things bothering the market. Oil seems to be a wild card. It didnt spike as of people thought they would certainly sunday night, monday morning but to the upside . The dollar came off mildly versus hough rates came off. Charles right. This may be the key f you get the dollar right a lot of other things fall into place. Oil spiked but didnt spike as much. I remember when iraq invaded kuwait oil went crazy. The spikes are lower and lower. Looklook at the amount of oil we producing domestically. Were not beholden tote saudi. Charles 25 geopremium risk to oil. Now that is multiyear move. The dollar before we let you go, i think, make this huge, almost improbable rally. I think it was up, 11 weeks in a row, Something Like that. Were down six days now. What is driving driving that hi . Is that a flight to safety . The flight to safety is hard because depends what environment youre in. Sometimes a stronger dollar and you have a stronger stock market that paradigm always must happen no longer happens but ill say this, look whats happening around the world. Look whats happening in china. Look what the japanese are doing with their monetariry system. Look how bad europe is. If you look around what currency do you want to own . You get the benefit of owning 90day tbills yielding 5. 25. Thank you, appreciate it. Charles thanks a lot, paul. Folks only one week away from the big special edition of making money, unbreakable investor happening next thursday october 19th 2 00 p. M. Eastern. I will be joined by two superstars, Evander Holyfield and and any duke. Go to eventbrite. Com, search charles payne. It will be free. Well explain the stock market in ways never explained to you based on my new book, unbreakable investor. Go there during the break, unbreakable investor dotcom, get your copy. Well have more of my unbreakable investor later in the show. We have constance hunter, peter morici, what the hell is going on, we have two of the very best economists out there. She says it is a goldilocks economy. Well be right back. You. I can make this work. It can help you reach them with confidence. No wonder more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. Ameriprise financial. Advice worth talking about. Charles all right, folks, a lot has changed just in the last two hours, right . Were going to begin with the cpi. More importantly where is the fed going with all of this . Lydia hu gives us a roadmap. Reporter charles, thats right, the cpi didnt live up to the height. Maybe that was because the street was secretly hoping for the cpi to come in a little bit cooler. The overall trend is fine considering where it was a year ago but suddenly seems like were running into a speed bump in this long drive to control inflation. Jay powell did give us a roadmap on how the fed is trying to find victory here. He told us very plainly, check out core foods inflation, inflation in and housing, here is the problem, charles, were still waiting for the socalled lag . When will that kick in . When will the data catch up to the real world . Check this out, shelter cost popping, higher than 7 right now. Shot up along with transportation costs. Meanwhile lets take a look at initial jobless claims because they continue to drift lower. It is really not unusual to see this after a yield curve inversion. You can see where we are. Jobless claims drift but can suddenly erupt like weve seen in past recessions 2001, 1971, 1973. Investors might look past on todays data with fed speak. Were taking on a dovish tone. Barr, clarida, fed could well be done. Jefferson, pole at this too restrictive. League began, in may be less need to raise the fed funds rate. All Things Considered the market seems to come to grips with higher for longer but also that the fed is done. Back to you, charles. Charles that changes minute to minute. Thanks for laying it out, lydia. A Great Research report, goldilocks and the three black swans, joining us macro policy perspectives, senior economist constance hunter. It has been far too long. Far too long. Charles cpi report was intriguing. It wasnt a major miss per se. Markets opened down, got a kneejerk reaction. Yields oak. 30 year action, fed bids on nothing. Market is going haywire. What is going on . Couple things going on. Ctas, Commodity Trading advisors, funds they have been short long bonds for a while. Charles they have the biggest short in their history. They are betting on calamity here. They are. You have a buyer would be there, not there. The fed, a buyer that would be there not there. You have the trifecta of doom i call it. You have, you have the treasury auctions are bigger because we have big deficits. Charles right. Charles you talk about these three black swans, soft landing, Energy Transition and a. I. The Energy Transition seems like a longterm thing to me. A. I. , maybe we start to see it but even that in terms of making major, major changes in our productivity things like that. Were starting to see it in the productivity actually. Charles okay. We really are, but it is a black swan because it has both a good side and a bad side. There are dark sides to a. I. There is deep fake. There is cybersecurity, there is a lot of issues. There is the socalled hallucinationsing when you put something into chatgpt it brings back complete gobbledygook it makes up, right . There is the story about the lawyer who tried to do his brief, had chatgpt do it, it cited cases that didnt exist. Right, right. You have to charles it is not perfected. Regular artificial intelligence, Machine Learning were seeing huge productivity gains there in companies streamlining their operations, manage their data, target their customers appropriately and that is coming along. Then it is kind of dovetails with the Energy Transition because it is capex intensive, right . So were seeing manufacturing stucktures, buildings have gone up dramatically. It is parabolic chart. Charles right. Whenever youre building New Buildings building them to the new code, building them to the new efficiency standards. So that helps boost productivity. Charles so lydia mentioned these fed officials sounding a little bit more dovish. A lot of more at the nabe conference you were at. Yeah. Charles how surprised were you with some of them they changed their tone a little bit . Mainly dailey set it up last week at the Economic Club at new york that lunch and she said listen 10year gone up a lot. It has kind of tightened for us. Charles right, right. They were at 4. 30 at the september meeting. Were now at 4. 70. That is a lot of tightening in there. She was questioning do we need to hike again if the market is doing it for us. Charles right. Lori logan went into why is the market doing it for us . Term premium, what is going on . The same conclusion. Phillip jefferson very similar. We got the minutes after the nabe meeting which show theyre now worried about risks balanced on both sides. Prior to now they were only worried about inflation risks. Now theyre saying maybe there takes a bite out of economy, we should pause and wait. The question did todays inflation data support that pause or detract . We think it is neutral. It was about where the fed was expecting things to come in. Cpi we are delayed. We see rents coming down. We had weird oneoffs hotels up a huge amount. Charles right. That will not continue unless people really want to do the Revenge Travel. Charles i think theyre almost out of the Revenge Travel money. They have done it already. Great having you back. It has been far too long. Really good stuff. I too am thrilled that the fed is looking at both sides because my greatest fear they go too far that is the my greatest fear with the entire market and the economy. That is the black swan. If they achieved a soft landing that has never happened before. Charles wow. Thank you. Charles my next guest says todays cpi actually leaves the fed with dilemma. Bringing in now university of maryland economist peter morici. Peter, explain the dilemma to us . My feeling is they thought they were getting all kinds of positive numbers. Inflation is certainly not coming down as think thought it would be. For instance, shelter, we were hearing how rents were coming down that would filter through into the cpi. That just hasnt happened. Theyre faced with a situation in order to crack the back on the Services Side they will probably have to make the slowdown were anticipating first half of next year worse than it is. They put out a lot of dovish sentiment, a lot of dovish signals and now they have to walk those back or essentially put up with inflation. My feeling is they wont walk them back. They will con in the pause and we wont have a soft landing. What well have is a very mild recession and inflation settling in at around 3 or 3 1 2 and then we take off from there and we begin the kind of cycle that led to paul volcker. Peaks and valleys, peaks and valleys. With each peak higher than the last. A big reason for that are the deficits. No one in washington wants to deal with those except the radicals on the republican side. They ways. Charles they do have that part right though . Sounds like okay, someone needs to real in spending at some point. The markets are scheming hey, real in the spending thats true, the question what do they want to real in . When you talk about eliminating core of the government, administrative actives, look at the federal aviation administration. They can hardly keep the planes in the sky. Either we have more taxes or cut entitlements and reform the pentagon. No one on the far right is talking about reforming the pentagon. On top of this, european deficits, not as large as ours, are larger than they were before covid. So there is less demand for bonds there. In your previous segments you talked about people like saudi arabia, brazil, china, and so forth, selling bonds. The demand is decreasing. The supply is increasing of bonds. What does that tell you is going to happen . Interest rates are going to go up and well have to learn to live with 5 rates. Charles yeah. You know what . You wrote that before that 30 year auction and right now the 10year is erupting higher. Im hoping we dont get to 5 but it is so hard to say it can happen. Let me shift gears for a second. I have got a minute to go. We always talk to you. You have got a lot of experience on college campuses, been associated with them. A lot of outrage these days. A lot of these College Folks have denounced israel after the hamas terror attacks. University of florida president , he came out with a very strong proisrael statement. He blasted elite academia, i will not tiptoe around the simple fact what hamas did is evil, there is no defense for terrorism. What is going on with our colleges, peter . What you have here, the difference between being a College President in florida and University President in massachusetts. A liberal place, a conservative place. Students are declined to go the extremes. They like to have causes to get hysterical about. The palestinian cause caused the imagination of the Harvard Students but in a way that causes them to be irresponsible. Im not so disturbed by them and what they wrote because adolescents do things like that. They dont really come to grips with whats going on. What is really disappoints me the president of harvard university. She is no longer fit in my eyes to be president of a Major Institution like that. This was her time to say, grow up. These are terrible atrocities, that matter what you think this is not something decent human beings any place can tolerate. If they dont like it they can leave. She didnt do that. So she should leave. Charles great, we have to leave it there, peter. I hope to add a exclamation point. We always appreciate you. Thank you. Take care. Charles coming up stocks, were certainly stumbling going into earnings season but its ironic because it gives us a great chance to find out who is the winners and whose the losers. No one better than stephen ought here at 2 35. Could the market follow a similar playbook it always followed . If so, you want to know what it is particularly at this time. No more calming voice than ken fisher. He joins me with his forecast next. Explore endless design possibilities. To find your personal style. Endless hardie® siding colors. Textures and styles. 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This is a special alert. Israel is under attack and israels enemies seek our destruction. The people of israel need immediate help. Rockets have us squarely in the crosshairs. Our people are targets in their own homes. Many have lost everything and fear for their lives. The International Fellowship of christians and jews has launched an urgent response to rescue those affected by this violent attack. Our teams are on the ground across israel delivering lifesaving aid. Your urgently needed gift of only 45 will help rush food, water, medicine and emergency supplies for jewish families that have nowhere to turn. Time is literally running out. What we need you to do is to act now. Charles well the investing world has really now become engulfed, right . Weve got wars growing, a lot of doubt out there. In this environment it feels like an Impossible Task but my next guest is not only a market historian he has actually seen these periods before firsthand. Joining me fisher investment founder. Jackie ken fisher. When we get like this, put on the batman light. You always respond. We like that. Talk to us about the playbook for these type of markets. Well first, charles, thanks for having me on. Second, you today have had a lot of fasttalking people on this show and you know the way i react is, when i hear, you know what i hear . You know what i hear when i hear fast talking people . Charles ron popiel . You dont want to go out to buy a toaster or Something Like that . So you know, people dont get this but, bull markets are stronger than people think they are, first. Charles right. Second, people talk about corrections in the market which is normally defined as down 10 to down 20 inside of a bull market. When i go back through the history of the s p 500 from 1925 on, i can five, 50, you count them 50 periods, instead of 10 to 20 down, eight to 20 town. The fact of the matter which is close to what we had this time and volatility is a feature of bull markets. Its not a problem of bull markets. Secondarily, thirdly, fourthly, im going to make some simple points. Once you get to a real bull market as normally defined which we have had, you cant find one that hasnt gone on to a second full year since 1932. Charles right. That should be a, that should be a feature. Charles i actually began this show, the very first screen on the show for todays show was that screen going back to 1950, showing all the first year rallies, all the second year rallies. Every single year there was rally, average about 14 gain after 26, 27 gain. We established that and still though we know history and thats why we have you on, ken, because you and i know history, we can talk history and sometimes people come on to talk fast because they have a lot of things they want to share, not that theyre hucksters or anything, these are brilliant people on the show. Of course. Charles theyre trying to help the audience. Audience is afraid. People are selling people dont understand why they sold outside of the fact that everybody else was selling. A good thing for people to do whether that time comes and they feel that way, in my humble opinion, do this, breathe more slowly, more slowly, until you calm doesnt. Let me make a couple more points if i may. You said 1950. I said all the way back to 1925. Charles right. The last time you could see it was 1932. Thats the bottom of the Great Depression but another one is, when the second year of a president s term has been negative, which was what we had this time in 2022, you cant find a fourth year of a president s term that was negative all the way back to 1932. Youre asking the market, if you want to go bearish now to do something that it hasnt done hardly ever, ever, ever, ever. Another point which is not quite as strong but 88 positivity feature, all of sudden something just happened we just had a Third Quarter of a thirdyear of a president s term, third year of a president s terms are positive overwhelmingly, 923 92 of history, but when the Third Quarters of those years been only positive half the time, when they have been negative, the Fourth Quarter that follows them been positive 88 of time. Which is where we are right now. Were positive this quarter so far. The fact of the matter is, you have got all these features going and yet people still feel like ah, ah, the reality noise and news and negativity in the earlier phases of a bull market are just normal. Charles you know what, ken . That is why were really blessed to have you on the show to talk about these things. I appreciate you a lot. Thank you very much. Thanks for having me always. Charles see you soon. Folks well be right back bobby my store and my Design Business . Were exploding. 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Great in my book who are you . No power . No problem. Introducing stormready wifi. Now you can stay reliably connected through Power Outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery backup to keep you online. Only from xfinity. Home of the xfinity 10g network. Charles folks talk about separating wheat from the chaff, my next guest is one of the most respected minds on wall street. He says as the market stumbles into earnings season this is good time to find winners and losers. They will emerge. We have federateds stephen auth ford strike, uaw going against profitability trucks. Whatever the conclusion to this i think that was a big move there, but there will be distinct winners and losers as we come out of all the stoppages right . Theyre talking about the recommendnant of the u. S. Auto industry. 40 of market share big three, versus what they had, i call them the middle three what they had 20 years ago. Jackie charles right. That strike were seeing within industries is creating winners and losers. As an example we had the big settlement at ups, 20, 30 wage gains of the got a lot of his tear yaw. Fedex its major competitor is not unionized. It is up 20 yeartodate. Ups is down. Right. They have got restructuring things driving earnings as well. 6 billionth taking out of costs this is a stock you can play. They have actually picked up market share from the ups strike and from yellow going under by the teamsters. Charles irony, fedex was having trouble for a while. Im a huge fan of fred smith, college thesis, huge fan. Last couple years i felt like they were losing their footing. Cheaper stock, partly because of that, charles. Charles paying a driver 190 grand a year theyre paying that will hurt the bottom line. Talk about Interest Rates obviously. 30year auction was a bust. Yields are spiking again today. Cpi was a little bit hotter. Distinct winners and losers. Talk about that a minute. We got bank earnings. If you dont mind, start at bottom of the list, larger banks would be winners but regional banks would be losers . Right. The larger banks have flexibility on Interest Rates. Jpm for example, kept their book very short. About 30 of their book will reprice next year. So they will benefit from the higher rates. We expect tomorrow they will talk about net interest margins going higher into next year. That should be good for the stock. It outperformed yeartodate versus other banks. We think that will continue. Regional banks, on the other hand dealing with a credit crunch coming from the higher rates, doing with the deposit base. They have had to shrink their balance sheets, maybe not attractive. Exxon, at t, exxon benefiting from higher oil prices, has a pristine balance sheet, hardly any debt at all. One of the things that will be a little bit of a drag on the economy the next two or three years is all this corporate debt is going to start to reset. Charles maturity wall right. Exactly. It doesnt create a recession but it is a grind. You take Companies Like at t with a big stack, 160 billion of debt, that starts to reset, that is another grind on earnings. Charles the russell, oh, my goodness, this is one of the worst performing periods. It has been an unmitigated disaster. No relief in sight . I want to like the russell here, charles, because it is so beat up. But i worry about the smaller companies. They are more exposed to the credit crunch that is going on. I think it will just slow their growth. Hopefully theyre in more after Holding Pattern but it is hard to really like them here. Charles stephen, less than a minute to go. I want to ask you about ai and gee owe politics. I will have but the geopolitical world. It is hurting up. Feels like things will get worse before they get better what should investors own . One, you want to own the defense contractors, because you want to own the arms dealers. It will raise premiums on the bond, raise premiums on market and keep oil for higher, one of the reasons we like a lot of the Energy Sector stokes and you pray hard somehow or other people figure out a way to stop killing each other which is really sad to watch. Charles but the barbarianism that we saw over the weekend we thought that mankind, humankind was past it. Past it. It is worse than horrible. Charles set us back hundreds of years, hundreds of years. Putin invading ukraine you doesnt think this stuff will happen again but it is there. Charles stephen, thanks a lot. Folks, well be right back if you have this. And you get this. You could end up with this. Unexpected outofpocket costs. Which for those on medicare, or soon to be, is a good reason to take charge of your health care. So consider this. An aarp Medicare SupplementInsurance Plan from unitedhealthcare. Why . Because medicare alone doesnt pay for everything. 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Take charge of your health care today. Just use this. Or this to call unitedhealthcare about an aarp Medicare Supplement plan. So, you have diabetes, and your glucose is heading low. [ alert sound ] dexcom g7, the most accurate cgm, can alert you before you go too low. Now, thats more peace of mind with dexcom g7. Dad, we got this. We got this. We got this. We got this. We got this. Yay we got this. We got this life is for living. We got this lets partner for all of it. Edward jones theyre killing the middle class. You think about trillions of dollars, seems like a slamdunk. Look at a chart of the net renewable electricity capacity. This is what the world bank and these folks are looking at. That gees straight up. Up to 2024. So if youre an investor looks like hey screaming a buy. I can tell you right now i have one solar stock, all it is. I go against my book or the approach because i only have one name like that but it is down a lot. The problem is i know people who have loaded up. They put all their money into this. It is really a shame. As of october 2nd, clean energy stalwarts were getting demolished. Clean energy etf down 56 , solar stocks 60 , wind stocks down 42 . A lot of our guests like Nexterra Energy partners. It is a good company, the stock down 67 . Then there is the ipo hype. You know how much i hate this. Ive been warning you against this. For the last 15, 20 years this has been one of the greatest economic ripoffs in history, in history of mankind. Silicon valley and wall street ganged up to rip off the American Public with these obscenely priced ipos. Think about this for a moment. Worlds biggest yacht goes on sale. Who is bidding for it. A sheikh and sill convalley hedge fund. Still, look at what the stock, it had to be overriced. Priced it at 46 yesterday. It opened at 41. You see the screen now. It was under 38. It was not priced properly. Someone got ripped off. Did you buy it first day of trading . Im not casting aspersions on the company. I thumbed through the f1. It is 223 pages of commentary, 8 page badges of financial. Do we need 300 pages to explain this . These are sandals. Why is it 300 pages . So when these folks on wall street say, hey, buyer strt saying bayer beairport of what in how about the seller stops stealing . Ive written about all this and more and in my new book unbreakable investor and go today and pick up a copy and youre going to love this unbreakable investor. Com and get your free copy ovit and its free. Cover the shipping now. Liz claman, its already a wild session. Were buckled up