Front war because has bola is pushing itself in. Something we been watching here which is remarkable, the yield on a 10 year bond has been collapsing. It comes down every time someone buys a lot of people have been buying. This is all the skittishness about the israeli war and investors are drawn to us treasury notes and bonds and thats pushing down bonds but as our stock editor and allaround genius came out with this during the commercial break, the 10 year treasury is down 20 basis points. Monday, the bond market, this represents the biggest two day market decline weve seen in three months. The reason we keep an eye on this and keeping the market selloff for a materializing, rates go down, stocks go up. It goes back to this war and the way the markets are digesting. We will talk about that with Charles Payne, who is saying as recently as monday that all these events notwithstanding the markets have a mind of their own but we are following that. This to front war, the jerusalem editorinchief, the significance of the two front war particularly in the north, has bola hezbollah is getting involved as troops are massing along gaza or what could be a substantial ground war. What can you tell us . Reporter this is the nightmare scenario, two front war, hamas in the self and hezbollah in the north. Even though we saw outrageous, unbelievable, unfathomable brutality on the part of hamas on saturday having wounded 1200 people in taking any number of them hostage, what we are dealing with in the north is a different scenario. Hezbollah is an army, 150,000 missiles, not rockets but missiles, which gives it a larger missile arsenal than any other country in the world. This is a significant threat to the state of israel. We are hearing a certain number of aircraft entered is really airspace. There are conflicting reports whether these were manned aircraft or drones and there are conflicting reports as to what the target of these aircraft must be, but this could be the opening volley of another friend in this war and this could be a dramatic and dangerous develop and for the state of israel. Neil this is where you are, it would be like in our country attacking parts of our country where the threats are most prevalent. Israelis are in that odd position of attacking their own country to get these nefarious elements out. I cant fathom the magnitude of it. Israel is a tiny country the size of new jersey, has less than 10 million people. When talking about 1200 dead, that is orders of magnitude worse than anything israel has encountered before and worse than any other country has. The equivalent of 12, 9 11 attacks on a single day. If your member the impact that had on america and the american psyche to this day and the impact in israel, 12fold. This is a cataclysmic event and dont know how it is going to end. These are very worrisome developments. We have to see how this will play out. Its a dangerous and dramatic time. Neil what do you sense is the end for hamas having started this. The festival outside this festival in gaza and the brutality of these attacks that took hundreds of lives and reports of has bola, you would think that hamas would initially know israel is going to respond as it should. It seems to be betting on a global jihad, after 9 11 thought the same, didnt pan out the way they thought and i wonder what you see, could this be similar to what hamas is hoping for after the yom kippur war, the arab world was more united back then. Join forces, embargoed or your, we know that story. As do you. What do you think that strategy is . Hamas and has bola have something in common. They are terrorist organizations with genocidal aims that want nothing but to eradicate israelite murder every jew on earth the. Neil that is it. Not more serious than that. There is no sophisticated military goal, no specific aim beyond that. When you look at how much hamas invested in murdering children, the elderly, entire families on saturday in southern israel, thats the manifestation of why it is. Didnt know it was going to get a crushing response, it probably did, didnt matter because this is a genocidal death cult that is thereto at murder as many jews as they can. Has bola has the added dimension of being controlled by iran, a very calculated player in the area and a regime that is genocidal, fundamentalist and once israel wiped off the map. Its more complicated, they dont have the same degree of independence that hamas does. Possible that iran is weighing the pros and cons of becoming involved in this war. There are many indications the United States and others, warning not to do so, this could turn into a broader conflict but at the moment looks like there may be something brewing on the northern border that could devolve into a dangerous situation. Neil be safe, thank you for updating us. This historic sense, you expressed very eloquently. The Jerusalem Post editor in chief. When you think about repeating 9 11 in this country, we went where al qaeda was strong, but we didnt attack cities in this country. This is what the soldiers have to do to weed out the nefarious elements by essentially attacking their own country. It is surreal. Mike tobin on the israel gaza border. Reporter i have reported for your show from this town before. Over the past two decades, this is a town thats no stranger to rocket fire. It is close enough that it is subject to mortar fire and the hamas militants gather supplies from iran, they get better range and reach towns deeper, and you may hear some booming in the background and the israeli artillery, we show you video on the gaza strip, israeli armor and infantry are all massed along the gaza border waiting for their orders. The artillery, essentially softening the battlefield mother psychological impact of banging away at the gaza strip letting militants know they are ready to roll. Softening the battlefield. Something an invading army will do before they launch a ground invasion. One thing with soldiers at the border, they understand the complex nature of the asymmetrical warfare. Hamas knows it will not win the war but its trying to win a pr war, its casey its citizens and places where they are shooting rockets in order for israel to defend itself and casualties to go up. Hamas wants to increase penalties for israelis and palestinians to win a pr war and we need to be aware of that. Reporter in the gaza strip the air campaign has been unrelenting. Weve seen it increase with speed and volume over the recent days. Contact inside the gaza strip tells me hamas militants are all in hiding. Presumably there are networks of tunnels they spend years building, protecting them from gunfire. The airstrikes have not been effective in terms of killing hamas personnel but what is effective is destroying infrastructure. The assassination of a city. Thats what you talk about a ground invasion, to get the hamas fighters out of the tunnels quite possibly you will need soldiers on the ground. We know the Security Camera met last night, the emergency unity government despite the political differences so if that results in orders to move forward and start rolling the armor you may see in the coming hour. Neil you talk about the government, Benjamin Netanyahu and the leader of the opposition party, i am wondering what that could signal. They are on the same page addressing this but hamas and hezbollah, different terrorist groups have different weapons at their hands, hezbollah has many more rockets. What can you tell us about the threat from the north . Of a threat in the north is very significant because has blood backed by iran, primarily of forward based army for iran. They have longrange weapons were. They could reach all the way to tel aviv you have a situation, the whole country could be covered with these longer range, inaccurate rockets but the entire country could be subject to terror and the funding has will and hamas now get from iran. The risk to israel is not the manpower. They are an army that relies on reservists and reservists are showing up to the tune of hundreds of thousands, they are willing to fight, supplies will be the question and thats where the us comes into play. We know the first round of supplies landed yesterday in the southern desert. Neil if a ground war is inevitable or moments away, youre more humanist than i will never be, they are doing it in a gaza that we largely without power or electricity. The israelis supply 2 thirds of the power to gaza strip and ended with this terror attack. Theres an independent Power Generator in the gaza strip that runs on diesel fuel and the best information is it is running low on fuel or runout already. Neil incredible reporting. We made reference to israel formed an emergency government on a war cabinet that will be the equivalent of the leaders of all the major parties coming together in this country to do the same, President Biden with the republican front runner trump. The analogy doesnt quite pull together but that is something that is virtually unprecedented. You would have to go to yom kippur, the war that triggered 50 years ago what would become a famous oil embargo that would lead to more gas lines in this country, inflation, became known as stagflation, we will get into that a little bit. I want to go to chad pogrom. This is the backdrop for the choice of the next speaker of the house and it is providing the urgency for that. Republicans dont want to drag this on and they use this as an example. Its not a give me that they can settle this today. Reporter that is what they are trying to figure out. The house or publican conference is meeting, trying to get a nominee for speaker. Theyve been meeting since 10 00 this morning. And a lot of members i spoke to are skeptical they can wrap this up today. At this time, no candidate has the majority or requisite number to advance. We have a long day ahead. Reporter the two candidates are jim jordan of ohio and steve scullys scullys scalise. The houses paralyze. The first order of business will be a strong resolution expressing support for israel. We have a bipartisan bill ready to go right away to express support for israel. We need to get back to work and we will do that. We will get this done. I support anyone who can get 217 votes. Reporter it is unclear how long it may take for someone to get the necessary votes to win. It is about the math. The meetings today could become contested. What will happen is we are going to do this until it is done. Is it today . Yes. Members got to decide. Reporter no vote today to 3 00, 3 30, if they think they have the votes on the house for, the mechanics, 433 members of the house, they need a majority of 433, thats 217, if all members cast ballots for someone by name. In the past we had ballots cast for donald trump or a us senator or comptroller of the currency david walker. We dont know that they can necessarily get there today but what theyve done in the past couple minutes is defeated, put aside a motion to raise the bar inside the conference that they would need to hundred 17 out of the conference. It is generally thought tabling that motion may help steve scalise. Lauren 1 if 1 3 candidate emerges . Kevin mccarthy . Reporter Kevin Mccarthy asked members not to nominate him. Hes casting a long shadow over that. The person they would go to is the speaker pro tem, patrick mchenry, republican from north carolina. They have to have some votes to see if they go down that route. Neil that will unseal later today. Take a look at what is going on with the 10 year note fund. A flight to a lot of buying and this is happening today for the second day running here. Largely, not despite but because large part of what is going on in israel, we should also posit here the reality that global investing has been disproportionately favoring the rest of the globe buying this particular security, the yield on that under 4. 6 , remember earlier last week right before the employment report everyone saying just touches 4 , it got to 4. 90 . That is lifting the bond market. Stock is little less open, Charles Payne has a welltimed analysis because he has a great book that addresses this, this idea that sometimes fear can be good, next. Mlb chooses tmobile for business for 5g solutions. To not only enhance the fan experience, but to advance how the game is played. Nows the time to see what americas largest 5g network can do for your business. This is american infrastructure. Megawatts of power, rails and open road, and essential services of every kind. All running on countless invisible networks, making it a prime target for cyberattacks. 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Neil when it all erupted, israel, the markets going to get pounded on this, what transpired 50 years earlier on the anniversary of the yom kippur war that the world was going to be unite and started thinking of embargoing oil, a very different world. Thats the lesson you learn about fear, not necessarily driven by that. One of many excellent themes. Charles paynes latest book unbreakable investor, building American Dream in any economic cycle, thats an understatement. Good to see you and charles is a genius but has a passion for the stuff. And gets into all sorts of hours pursuing this and charles, he is a little busy. One of the things i love is this idea of here. Theres a chapter, everyone elses fear is good, you talk about fear from lack of a better word, other peoples fear is good. What did you mean . Charles we are an emotional beast so driven by emotions that supersedes logic and everything. One of the things about the stock market is the crowd. It does move that way, not the individual investor but experts. Neil i love how you do that, you are in the side of the simple investor but expand on that. Of the fear is if we are not careful it could lead to something bad. Neil charles the hedge funds, the smartest folks in the world who get all the money to manage whether they make money or not have the largest sure position ever on government bonds. Neil and the crash and yields. It has been happening but going into the break, the 10 year, they are looking 5. 5, 6, looking to break this thing. Heres the thing no one has noticed but the main bond investment, a 20 year bond, it is a bear market that longer than a bear market for stocks after the tech bubble crunch, its been stealthy, no one is paying attention. It tells you that when something is breaking down that long it is vulnerable and hedge funds are piling on. Same with stocks. These hedge funds are wrong more than anybody else and the good news with of them is when they have a epiphany, although shorts they have to cover. I like to be positioned and have them buying up everything i own and lifting it up with buying power, 46 billion on the stock side, more on the bond side. Whether the whole market, if this comes crashing down, i hope im getting it right, one of the shortest market severed, rules for buying in a bull market, dont get cute and wait for dibs or right off the message in the market, you want to be overweight in part of the economy that are turning higher and focus on stocks that are ready to rally hard. The idea of not buying dips, you have a thing about that. Either you are lying or you were lucky. Neil that is what i did. Charles if you gotta find you dont have to get the bottom. My strategy, im often buying toward the bottom before we got there. Its not unusual for people to be upset with me in a chalet. We had 54, now its 45. If you are buying based on the fundamentals, oversold stocks become more oversold, you dont know where the bottom is, you could be buying here, under the bottom and back here, the problem, when you dont have that position and start to rally people say i will wait for it to test the bottom. That is what they always say. People waiting to touch the bottom in march 2009, waiting for the double bottom, a better way neil you were if there. Charles people accuse me of being a rosecolored glasses guy and i am a bull on american companies. Not only time horizon but this is something people need to be careful with. It has been promoted, since 19262 last year, 26,000 stocks traded only 950 have made money net net. Number what is apple, apple made 3 trillion. Charles to warren buffett, he got in later. Charles he is up huge. Neil i make a lot more money it is not a timing issue. Charles isnt a timing issue all the time but the outsized gains, to really get where people want to be you need some windfalls and get these when there is so much pessimism, you can purchase great quality stocks. Its not the stock charles stocks that come back mightily and some people might be tempted to drive in given whats going on in israel thinking the world is going into panic mode. So far the world is not. Before so far it isnt. Mention the yom kippur october 1973, the market didnt recover for several years. We had two recessions. Oil went through the roof. Inflation went through the roof. Neil you dont see anything like that. Charles saudi arabia wants to be part of the international community, they set the pace. All these nations with a lot of oil revenue, it will go away and they are investing in Different Things when they had the cash to be part of the world community, the World Economic community 50 years from now, they are not living in the moment. They open communications of sympathy but they are not going to join the fray and these accords will certainly happen with someone like saudi arabia. Neil lets talk about admitting a mistake which is a great concept. I never i find it interesting. You mentioned warren buffett, when he was wrong on an investment, not only humanizes that, but shows they are not arrogant about the market. Charles one of the worst enemies for investors is it is worse for professional investors, they get it wrong so badly because they put their intellectual capital at risk. They cant to be wrong. Always the markets, okay. If you do the work and the work starts to change, listen to it and sometimes you take the loss. You have to do the work. Got to put a certain amount of elbow grease. Neil buying average or atf or whatever and park your money and step away, you are not a fan of that. Charles if you want to take the time and see a way to give better returns. All i am trying to say is everybody watching can create a path to prosperity, doesnt mean getrichquick for yourself but your trajectory, you turn it higher, give them a runway to build on. The hot thing is generational wealth. Thats what everyone is talking about. It doesnt happen in one generation. You start the ball rolling in your generation. Thats what we are trying to do, start the ball rolling for kids and grandkids and so forth. Neil what do you tell your kids and grandkids . Charles the grandkids are waiting. The kids are waiting too. My two sons are looking at the watch, you are kind of healthy right there. Neil i tell my kids your mother and i are keeping everything. Part of a special show charles is looking at. Charles go to unbreakableinvestor. Com. Neil then you can see a variety of very nice things for my house. A lot of developed across the globe, want to go to brian stern. They are trying to help people get out of israel, easier said than done. We did the same in afghanistan. How are things going right now . Brian things are a little tough. We are alerted theres another paraglider attack coming from the north from has bola originating in lebanon. I think we are going to have a long night in israel is what im predicting. A lot of americans stuck here, plenty of americans stuck in the territories and a hostage situation. Neil all the airlines have ceased flights in and out of israel, they pushed it into november, maybe even december. Thats a long time not to have commercial traffic coming in so you have to get planes. How do you do it . Weve done airplanes in afghanistan under the taliban, weve done rescues in ukraine, broken people into jail from inside russia and during hurricane maui, we were doing helicopters before anybody. This is what we do, we are donor funded, it is extremely difficult. It can be dangerous. The calm before the storm. Hundreds of americans are here that are trying to get out and the carriers are dropping like flies. Very soon, very soon it will be charter air and the government, state department hasnt chartered any airplanes that anyone knows about. Adam canada is planning to fly its citizens out of israel by the end of the week. We dont know how they are going about that but i have not heard and i could be wrong to your point what the state department is doing. That was the same conundrum going on in afghanistan. That could happen. The fourth war zone we deployed to where americans are left, we started in afghanistan and pulling american citizens out of afghanistan to this day, ukraine where the embassy left behind americans, sudan right after that the embassy closed, 16,000 americans, 25 months where the pattern is. Why that is is above my pay grade but if you are an American Family stuck in israel and you are under air raid alert, youre looking for help and the help is not here so that is the reality. Its not a political thing or an opinion, just a fact of life. Project dynamo is here, we are raising money to get these people out, we have the aircraft, just cant afford them. If you have the means go to project donor. Org, we need to get out of here before the airspace closes. Neil we are putting it on our site. Very quickly, what about those in israel who want out because they are getting nervous . Those people, the Israeli Citizens a lot of people want to go, this is israel, they like to fight. You wont see a mass exodus like we saw where the country is trying to flee. We are not seeing that yet but thats a function of how bad it gets. It hasnt gotten terrible yet but once the ground offensive starts. Airspace has been violated 10 minutes ago. As this thing escalates i expect more people willfully but until it gets real bad i suspect the israelis will stay and fight to the end. Neil do this at great risk to yourself and others but doing good to help some people time and again. We will pass along of a word. You have done it many times before. We know this much, its largely dark with power virtually out throughout the gaza strip, reports of 300,000 reservists piled up and around offensives that could begin at any moment. Every day, businesses everywhere are asking is it possible . With comcast business. It is. Is it possible to help keep our Online Platform safe from cyberthreats . Absolutely. Can we provide health care virtually anywhere . We can help with that. Is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues . We can help with that, too. With the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. Its not just possible. Its happening. This isnt just freight. 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I dont do nervous all that well. Im not that experienced at it. I am hesitant to talk about anything positive at a time like this when such ugly things are going on in israel and gaza. Neil one of the things that stood out when i was doing a show on this, there was a fear at the time of the yom kippur war, how that cascaded into hatred on the part of the arab world for us, remember the long gas lines, could that repeat itself . Do you expect it ever could . As soon as you say can anything happen . The answer has to be of course theres a possibility of that. The reality is now, no, is israel going to beat the dickens out of gaza, yes. How do people feel about airconditioners . I dont know. Thats not my expertise. Let me just tell you we have a long history of regional wars including ones in the middle east, including ones with israel, and we know what happens to the stock market. There is an age old saying, sell on the fear, purchase on the bullets. And the fact is almost always in smaller regional wars, market goes up during the time, and the bombs and bullets but the market has gone up, then it will get parsed, these kind of wars tragic though they are it would be uncharacteristically short. Talking about something. Our Balance Sheet of consumers, not as awful. The Balance Sheet of consumers which most people think is terrible, consumers have been improving their Balance Sheet. That has gone up but their net worth has gone up faster over the last 20 years and Balance Sheets are better than they were in the 1980s. Let me make a point to the point you made before. Once a legitimate bull market has started, in the history of the s p going back to 1925, the only time it didnt last two years or longer was in the 29, 30, 31, 32 period when you had what became a bull market coming off of 30 and went to 32. The fact of the matter is in a leathers it lasted two years. The second year of a president s term or negative, the fourth year like next year was always positive ever since 1932. In the third year of a president s term which was positive 90 of history, with reliable returns, when the third has been negative which happened almost half of history, the fourth has been positive all but three times, the reality is asking the market to be negative now, something that almost never happened, this almost never happened. It happened in markets. You are pretty much barking out of tough trade. Adam when you look at interest rates, it might be a combination of friendly speak for fed governors or district president s, a world attraction to invest in the United States or place to park money, do you see that continuing or conversely because it was only last week at this time, 10 year was teasing 5 , maybe not so much but these higher rates will stick around a wild. What do you think . I dont know and i dont care. Let me explain. Most people believe higher rates make the market go down, and higher rates are bad for tech. They also believe Higher Oil Prices kill stocks. The fact, most people never use correlation coefficients to figure out, is it even possibly true and all that stuff has such weak correlations the correlations are close to 0 in all of them, you know its not actually true so the fears of fear that is in the marketplace of something that for the long history of the past, the last we 10 years or 20 years doesnt have a there there so i dont spend a lot of time. Last year rates rose and tech stocks fell. That sounds like what it should be but during the bull market that started a year ago, rates rose and tech stocks led the market. Not what conventional wisdom is supposed to be but never checked correlation. I am fine. Neil i work with a lot of young people who are shocked to hear 7 or 8 , it was 13 and we thought we werent but you have to keep that in perspective. So what do you make now . You dont buy that the rates are too high. Let me go a different direction, this is perceived from the time the fed first hiked a rapid recap increase of interest rates. The fastest ever was the one that volcker did in terms of speed from the time of the initial hike, but other ones that were similarly as fast as this one, the ones that were pretty benign with stocks and the economy afterwards, people missed that point and like the one i talked about, 1966, we had a more important thing coming, this is a tragic war, terror doesnt have the impact that used to have on us. When you think of terror, we get President Biden and donald trump, halloween coming, how much terror can we have . Neil i have lines i love after an interview with you that get to the core of my question for you, i dont know, i dont care. That is my take away and always good seeing you. Thanks for having me on, always appreciate it. Neil Brian Brenberg coming up with what is on his show minutes away. 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And allies in the region, we want to be there is a stabilizing force, not a destabilize her. Could this be a repeat of 1973. The arab world is succeeding in fighting capitalism far more enriching. Im not so sure. What do you think . Look back to the rock yom kippur war of 1973 you had a group of arab countries that coordinated together to launch a surprise attack, putting israelis into the sea and wipe out the countrys existence, and the attack from hamas that was terrible and brutal, in the northern part coming from lebanon, not the same as having these countries. When you go just after terrorist groups themselves, hamas and hezbollah you are aiming for the wrong target. What you need to look at is at some point in the world especially the United States, israel and other countries say the state sponsors of these terrorist groups must be held accountable. If we dont go after the state sponsors this will be a continuing pattern and it will go on for decades. At some point, iran has to pay a price for what they have done to israel through hamas and has bola hezbollah. Neil they are richer than they were after the first wave of sanctions. Thanks to the runup in oil, 76 million, it is almost who cares what happens to this frozen or unfrozen 6 billion, we are sitting on a pile of that. God knows what they can do. Weve seen what they are doing in the arming of hamas and the attack that went on. They make isis look like childs play, the depravity we have witnessed the past five days. What we need to look at is a number of things the United States and other countries can do to air and, we can ask get a bunch of sanctions to tighten the noose again, 6 billion will be a start. Every dollar iran has to spend on humanitarian needs is a dollar they dont have to spend on weapons, and the number one state sponsor of terrorism and time to hold them accountable. I dont think that holds anything. Jack moment in history. More after this. 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