Adam were just talking about water. We are underwater if you are looking at the Dow Jones Industrials on the year, an average of 15 is now technically underwater. Less now than it was at the start of the year. With weighing on investors is that Interest Rates go up, up, up some more. We are looking at that with the 10year not far from 4. 8 . I want you to consider that because as recently as april, 3 and one quarter 3 and one 12 45 , overs down, more than a year ago the fed was starting its Interest Rate hikes, we were essentially at or near 0 with all those rates, not so much the 10year but that was then, this is now, higher Interest Rates are hitting virtually all the sectors in the market today including what we are seeing going on with technology. The fed has no control, not that far from a 30 year, closing at 5 . One of the interesting things i should point out, if you commit your money for 2 months you get 5 on your money there. If you committed right now for 6 months, a similar amount, 5. 5 , 3 month, 5. 51 , you see what this means, guaranteed money from uncle sam backed by the full faith and credit of uncle sam, something to explore the to roiling the markets today, this idea of inflation, the market is giving you the impression it is sticking. We have a lot more later in the show. We will keep you posted constantly showing these numbers and what is moving or not moving in these markets. In the meantime the move on capitol hill to unseat the speaker, something we havent seen in the better part of a century, chad pogrom on whats going on in this could be roiling markets. Kevin mccarthy has facing the biggest challenge of his speakership because matt gaetz, the republican is going to the floor this hour and is going to make this motion to vacate the chair, call for a new speaker vote live. A vote related to that wont happen until 2 00 our. Speaker mccarthy is confident he will survive. He decided to push this issue today. Rip the bandaid off here or what . Why not . Matt has planned this all along, didnt matter what transpired, whether we were in shutdown or not. Mccarthy said he was confident he would survive todays vote of noconfidence and b speaker tonight. One gop member tells fox the outcome is not preordained. Its about the mouth. Mccarthy says if he loses the votes of 5 gop members hes out and most democrats are not going to bail out kevin mccarthy. Years democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries. We encourage our republican colleagues who claim to be more traditional, to break from the extremists end the chaos, end dysfunction, end the extremism. We are ready, willing, and able to Work Together with our republican colleagues but it is on them to join us. Jarrett golden is a moderate but he says he will not vote to help the speaker, democrats are trying to figure out how to vote. Some already know. There are Serious Trust issues. Our job is not to elect republican speakers but democratic speakers. We are here with the speaker of the house, trying to get him to stop. Mr. Speaker . Kevin mccarthy not taking our questions, just stepped onto the floor to open the floor, he sometimes has stopped with the cameras when coming out. Heres what is going to happen. Matt gaetz this hours going to make alive his resolution. When they come back at 2 00 there will be a motion to table or kill matt gaetzs motion, this is a secondary motion that will be made by a mccarthy ally. The effort is to try to euthanize what matt gaetz is doing to the speaker. If the motion to table what matt gaetz is doing carries than it is over, matt gaetz is lost. He says he will be back but they are done but this is the dangerous part for kevin mccarthy. If for some reason that secondary motion to table fails, then they go back and vote on kevin mccarthy, whether or not the chair is vacant, to declare whether there is a vacancy in the speakership, that motion will probably fail and then theres trouble, if that is adopted then we go immediately to vote after vote after vote like we did in january to elect a speaker of the house, the house will not have a speaker and by rule they have to keep voting until they get a speaker of the house. It took 5 days and 15 rounds back in january. The longest speakers race since 1859. Back to you. Ashley lets say every democrat votes for Hakeem Jeffries or whatever. The speaker can afford to lose only 5 votes. Thats exactly what he said in this is where we get into some very complex parliamentary algebra and it is hard to determine whats going to happen because you could have democrats not vote at all or show up and vote present, that fluctuates the total vote have any members or casting ballots, you dont know what the magic number is for the resolution to be adopted or defeated or tables. Thats why its so hard to figure out and why its dangerous for kevin mccarthy. Neil you will update us as warranted. Congressman chip roy of texas sitting on the house judiciary committee, very important player. Where are you on this . Good afternoon. Im not in favor of the motion to vacate but let me be clear, things need to change. My colleagues who are raising this, some accuse them of being show horses or things like that. We talked about the rampant inflation, the current state of affairs. Right now what we are talking about, a little girl is getting sex trafficked in texas, the borders are open. American citizens are in danger. Absolute devastating state of affairs along the border and we are talking about what have we done so far . 4 trillion increase in the debt ceiling, just a 45 extension of the status quo, some of my colleagues on the other side of the building in the senate are saying we need 80 billion for ukraine while our border is on fire. I dont need we need to continue the status quo but dont think we should be pulling the coach out in the Fourth Quarter. Kevin said he wants to carry this to run have a fight to get what we need done on the border. That we need to hold ukraine in check, to reflect this conference and get spending down and we should try to follow through but we will see what happens over the next couple of hours. Neil of the extension, shortly before thanksgiving, there is no funding of the border in this extension, nor for ukraine if the speaker, if he stays speaker puts ukraine back in the mix. What you say that is it, time is up, goodbye . Weve got to deal with the border crisis, not one dollar for ukraine, dont want to go down that road, lets secure the border of the united states, do what we need to do to move appropriation bill to limit spending, every person watching this right now is watching the markets roiling, watching inflation go up, the cost of housing, cost of energy, cost of electricity, cost of cars, cost of food, driving, peoples on ability to end their lives. We cut government spending, moving forward to do our core job of securing the border in securing the country, then you can have a special part conversation about ukraine when they want to come forward and show us what they are going to do but under no circumstances should we be saying lets give money to ukraine but cant scare our own border and get our own house in order. Thats what we need to do. Im sticking with the team through the Fourth Quarter but it is the Fourth Quarter, it is game time and we need to get the job done for the american people. My people in texas are getting crushed with open borders. Enough. We got to fix it. Neil a lot of questions whether this is personal or a grudge by matt gaetz for his colleague. The you think it is . A lot of conversations in the conference, this has more to do with a group of my colleagues who are frustrated with the status quo. I read a laundry list of likely outcomes when the establishment get gets its way, continued increased spending, subtle mental spending bill, the debt ceiling caps, continued open borders, extent to which we fund ukraine with lack of accountability for mayorkas and biden. People are frustrated and want change. Neil how much do you agree in your view with matt gaetz to share the deal that the speaker has to vacate . Theres going to be a block of a number that i will not project yet in the Single Digits but i dont know that would vote to vacate today but theres a bigger number. Lauren 1 you say there are 5 or more . 5 or more and a much bigger number than that are frustrated with the state of affairs. Lauren 20 im sure you realize the import of what you just said, choosing your words very carefully, 5 or more assuming no democrat votes for the speaker, that could change. If he is out of there today. We will see how the vote plays out the next couple hours, got to stay focused on leading this country forward, we have a major important issue, border, spending, ukraine, getting our house in order and i want to be clear, we get no help from democrats, they want to keep driving us into the ditch spending money we dont have, leaving a borders wide open, giving money to ukraine, weve got to come together as a republic and party to stand against that, not easy to do, the sausage getting made is little ugly sometimes but lets break some glass, get busy and continue to move forward. Lauren 20 would you vote to vacate as things stand right now . Im not going to vote to vacate on the first round of votes today and i think we need to keep going through and give the coach the time to finish the plays in the Fourth Quarter, we will see what happens today and get this all put back together again. Thank you very much for that, following these fastmoving developers on capitol hill. Following another development that includes donald trump, day 2 of the civil trial going on in lower manhattan, the latest on that moving forward. What have we learned today . There was a brief recess moments ago, court has resumed donald trump spoke for a second time today again defending the valuation of his properties and calling this and higher case a scam saying it should be dismissed but the morning session started just after 10 a. M. The judge started by explaining an Appellate Court decision from back in june regarding the statute of limitations, essentially what he explained that is the Attorney Generals Office will continue questioning a man by the name of donald bender, Donald Trumps old accountant, they have been discussing a lot of transactions and Financial Statements from back in 2011, the judge will allow that to continue if and only if the state connects it to crimes, alleged crimes that happened more recently after 2014 or in some cases after 2016. Donald trump spoke for the second time today as he entered the courtroom, he was again very critical of new York Attorney general Letitia James. Listen here. This case should be dismissed. This is not a case. She should probably be dismissed also because she is terrible and grossly incompetent. And they out to get on to Violent Crime in solving the problems of new york city and new york state. Attorney general james accuses trump of falsely inflating his net worth and deceiving banks by fraudulently overvaluing his properties. Sheep out of video last night saying she fundamentally disagrees with trumps interpretation of the statute of limitations in this case. This is a no jury trial which means the judge has full discretion in deciding trumps punishment, trumps team put out a statement that they never had the option of a jury trial. He also defended again the valuation of his properties not only just moments ago but on truth social posting in part, quote, the judge has been given false and grossly misleading information about my net worth such as maralago being worth 18 million when in fact the number would be much closer to 1. 5 billion. Todays proceedings are scheduled to end at about 4 30 where we expect a lunch break coming up at the top of the hour. The afternoon sessions begins at 2 15. Yesterday we are donald trump speak four times, weve seen him speak two times. We will see what else he has today is the Court Proceedings continue. Stuart thank you for that. The former federal prosecutor, this concerns the nonjury thing. What is the policy in a case like this . Others said it is the trumps teams fault for skewing the idea. I dont know what the reality is. Do you know . The statute allows for a jury trial, the judge made statements indicating neither side requested a jury which would seem to indicate the defense had not put in that request because it is a defendeds right to a jury trial so it is unclear why that strategic decision was made but it is a tactical decision, juries and new york seem unfavorable to trump so that could have been the far process, this judge is unavailable to trump, the process of a regrettable decision but does seem to have been an affirmative decision by the defense based on what i have seen. Neil a trump lawyer says thats not the case, was not a box to check off, not an option, is that misrepresenting that . There are certain types of cases required to be heard by a judge trial and my understanding is the statute does not require that it only be heard by a judge and would have been an option to pursue a jury trial, could have been some other technicalities that led to this outcome but from what i have seen it seems to have been a decision that was made strategically but at this point the decision is final, theres no option to select a jury moving ahead. The judge will determine the outcome of this case. Neil lies with the judge and one of the things that has come up is who are you, to tell us about real estate, something weve devoted our lives to are the president would say his entire life to. He knows a thing or two about it, his lawyers saying Trump Properties are mona lisa properties, thats not fraud, thats real estate, in other words there is a brand and value attached to real estate that goes beyond what you might see on popular websites. Thats their argument, these are not businesses grading valuations of properties that donald trump would know quite well i did not do anything toward it. I think there is decent argument to be had about the subjective evaluation of the property and you have to remember that prosecutors decided not to move forward with any fraud charges against trump on the criminal side for the same filing so the interpretation of fraudulent filings and this statute is very broad and i do believe could be open for debate, however when the judge is the finder of fact and made a decision regarding those valuations and determined them to be fraudulent, thats the decision of the trial court and it could be rehashed on appeals, what the judge mentioned again today but for all intents and purposes that has been conclusively determined here. Whether it is fair or not the Appeals Court will have to wait on that. Neil or something to donald trump, this is a kangaroo court, already loaded from their. Are slapped on a punishment on properties, they will be nullified and cant do business in this state and this is all about that, his lifeblood and earnings in the state of new york and it would take a Herculean Task for the judge to do one hundred 80 and say theres nothing here. Does he have a point . I dont think the judge will reverse his own findings. The point of the defense is preserve the record for appeal. The Appellate Court could see things different, there are significant questions about the fact theres been no complaints from parties or lenders or actual loss of earnings or profits from these transactions. Neil you are the lawyer, i am not, but that is not germane. Moving hard to an injured party that may not be injured at all strikes me as odd but that is not what is at stake, seems kind of wacky. Neil thats not germane to a finding that there were fraudulent filings whether there is loss of income. Practically speaking it is quite mitigating, without doing fraudulent or corrupt business in the state of new york which is the purpose of the statute, you have to wonder whether this was the intention, to go after someone who was a political opponent, somebody Letitia James said she wanted to to go after. All of those play into the analysis but under the statute, you dont need to show harm to get an adverse finding against you. Filing what the factfinder determines to be fraudulent. Very broad definition under the statute, something prosecutors thought they could not prove commonly against trump. And oconnell court. Neil to imagine. Neil the judges rolling detailed why he felt they were fraudulent representations. The argument regarding the brand is significant, could increase valuation but his decision at this stage is the final decision. Adam you very much. Fastmoving developments, the dow down 270 points. That might seem convoluted. The number on the right, thats a rate of a 10 year treasury, closing in 4. 8 , at a 17 year high and that is the basis for mortgage rates, the basis for 15 year jumbo loans and the basis for so much you do on an everyday basis, and thats whats happening right now. Neil i need the dollar dollar, that is what i need is it possible to fall in love with your home. Before you even step inside . Discover the Magnolia Home james hardie collection. Available now in siding colors, styles and textures. Curated by joanna gaines. Explore endless design possibilities. To find your personal style. Endless hardie® siding colors. Textures and styles. Its possible. With james hardie™. Im andrea, founder of a boutique handbag brand andi and this is why i switched to shopify. Its the challenges that we dont expect, like a site going down or the checkout wouldnt work. 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Heres why you should switch fo to duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a builtn engine like google, but its pi and doesnt spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. And theres no catch. Its fre. We make money from ads, but they dont follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. Neil stocks down, rates up. Thats the conundrum. Because rates are so far up and weve got more indications the economy is doing well, adult report that a number of jobs far higher than most were betting on, 9. 61 million americans in that position, the 8. 8 million americans looking at available job openings. Whether this proves the case and the friday employment report, add up the good news bad news backing up Interest Rates and the Federal Reserve has little control, the 10 year attached so many popular rates going up, up, and away. 16, 17 years. Higher rates are sticking and getting stickier and no matter what the fed does, that is the reality. I think everybody understands or hopes that the bond markets are controlling the equity markets, that setting the levels, setting all the markets neil sending a message to the fed. It is very forwardlooking. It is certainly sending a message this is what we were expecting. Neil the fed is going to happen. It is what we think is going to happen in the future. The bond market, the stock market does, it is very much what we think the fed will do and what will happen in the next six months or so. The one good thing at least when looking at these rates, talked about the inversion, at least the recent rally, the yield going up, on the longer end. We are seeing less of a steepening which may be an indication of less likelihood of recession. Neil i could commit my money for six months, 5. 5 or whatever it is. And not dealing with this. A lot of people are in that position and a lot of clients would rather use shortterm whether you are looking at cd your shortterm etf, even 4 on a two year, the prices dont move as much as you can get that yield and avoid all the chaos of the past 5 years. And so if you are someone who wants to rebalance your portfolio and monitor that much work frequently and taking that 5 is an option. If you want to forget it and rebalance in a year or reassess, not the best option. Because the stock market is coming down, more fairly valued this may not be the winning but for 12 to 18 months out. Adam you have a dow that is underwater and a ways to go. There is a feeling here we protect the gains that we have if you still have them. Dont want to overstate this but client to have done well with technology, when they first got hit and came back, getting clobbered. I like longterm investing. At least one year, 12 months. Everybody has their different point, everybody has a different point what you can handle to sleep well at night but in general looking at one month out, if you are willing to trade frequently, listen to what we are saying. Neil people overreact on the upside and downside. Whether they start hiking rates, somebody this feels very much like february and march of this year when the market came down but the good news is at least that as we are looking at 2024 and the economy, looking at profits, things look a little better. We have 5 really bumpy years, not from an economic standpoint but corporate profit point of single digit gains except for 2021 or contractions. The hope is that we are going to become more normalized next year and maybe pull off a soft landing. Lauren 20 the economy itself. When you have this many job openings it is a sign of a strong economy, not so much Revenge Travel anymore as much as it is extending Balance Sheets not nearly so depressing as we were led to believe but the underpinnings are sound. I agree. And that when you look at the fundamentals of the economy and profits, we are looking at potentially 14 profit growth, good unemployment, the one catch is what the bond market does. If we do expect greater hikes these yields keep going higher, that could reset everything. Fundamentally things look great but it is all about what the bond market is doing. Neil higher Interest Rates leading the show, how long it lasts, it is fairly consequential. The rates are historic. More after this. Three guys came out of nowhere and pointed guns at me. When you have three guns, looking at one with a gun at another with a gun, they say sure, got to keep comment on the situations, message is very simple, support Law Enforcement and ive been doing that for a long time. Us congressman had a carjacking last night, hundreds of feet from the capital itself. This is getting to be more routine a lot of big cities, shouldnt be that way, the washington examiner, this could have been a lot different. What do you think . It could be. To his credit, Henry Cuellar has been a far bulwark against the police flank but that wasnt able to stop Dc City Council from the funding to the police to the tune of 15 million in 2020 and as a result, police enrollment in dc is down 11 . . In 2020, there were 100 officers, it is a big difference with surmounting crime, lowest moment in 20 years, thats no coincidence. Maybe it used to be one of the safer places in dc and we see these horrific carjackings, no longer a safe haven in dc, crime is everywhere. Thank god that situation did not turn out worse. Neil did we see the same thing . In a way, i am a younger refugee, moved from chinatown for four years, just moved across the river to alexandria, virginia and would not want to be around dc myself. Either with my husband or girlfriend, its not safe anymore. Neil you have this going on, the migrant surge that some fear will trigger more crime and this frozen in place washington environments where they are trying to topple the speaker and you have the two parties, it is a mess. Thats my professional view. It feels like no one understands the real issues plaguing the people, look at the latest gallup poll and, republicans have one of the biggest leads in two decades in the economy yet they are fighting for Kevin Mccarthys head because matt gaetz decided to blow up an actual spending cut he was able to get through a democratic senate. Is preposterous with prices being up 17 in the last, since President Biden took office, preposterous not to be focusing on crime. This is why republicans are so good at seizing defeat from the jaws of victory. Neil i understand its for 5 or 6, and i will get there, and it is going up washington. That the narrow margin, in the post midterm house. Its coming back to bite, isnt it . Feels like poor sportsmanship and such inability to keep your eye on the cries, republicans are facing a crucial Virginia Election glenn youngcan trying to fire up virginia and if we had a Government Shutdown that came during those elections that would backfire on republicans and if you want to place in the dmv to expand School Choice and law order, a wise republican would not blow up that opportunity. Republicans need to learn the candidate quality matters, the house margin is wider and potentially Mitch Mcconnell instead of chuck schumer, if it were more of a priority in the midterms. There when will seats, and unfortunately, next time, expand the majority so if you think mccarthy is a switch you can have a wider margin to vote for your guy instead of handing it over to Hakeem Jeffries who is ready to impeach of donald trump does win in 2024, ready to impeach him on day one. Stuart you need that cushion. These narrow leads dont help. It is good seeing you. The dow down 358 points. The former president taking a break in the civil trial and what happens right now, why this is so important, a civil matter, not a criminal matter. After this. vo while you may not be running an architectural firm, tending hives of honeybees, and mentoring a teenager your life is just as unique. Your Raymond JamesFinancial Advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you help others. So you can live your life. Thats life well planned. Every day, businesses everywhere are asking is it possible . With comcast business. It is. Is it possible to help keep our Online Platform safe from cyberthreats . Absolutely. Can we provide health care virtually anywhere . We can help with that. Is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues . We can help with that, too. With the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. Its not just possible. Its happening. Neil took a break, i dont think i was right, still in the courthouse, not lower manhattan, the Supreme Court is deciding a civil matter, not a criminal matter about how it values its properties and businesses, cutting to the chase, this could go on for months, Charlie Gasparino following this. Charles in state court, you have trump coming in federal court, sam bankmanfried, one is a civil fraud case, thats trump, spf, and start with trump. It 5 people to show me the victim. There is no victim. Neil Leticia James. Charles under that. They have been talking about this, a federal effort to supersede that. Charles the other thing, Deutsche Bank which gave these loans, they know donald is a blowhard, my house is 30,000 feet, of course they checked. Neil they were not harmed by this. Charles everybody lies about their house. My house neil in two zip codes. Charles i painted it two years ago, no you didnt. Neil assuming this goes nowhere. I dont know what it is. As you were pointing out. It is not criminal but it does linger. What do you think . Charles when i talk to people who served in the administration, on one hand, they are saying they cant believe he will survive this and on the other hand, saying i cant believe he is way ahead in the polls. There is this weird dichotomy about these cases, the diaspora is the best way of putting of trumpers who cant get their hands around this. This guy under other circumstances would be fraud. Neil without these indictments in the civil case, for the republican nomination, you dont know galvanize support. Charles i saw ron desantis on bill marr, what i found interesting about bill marr, desantis was all sort of business. Donald, when he gets up there is not a lot of business. It is all fluff. The republican electorate likes the fluff, they like the show. Thats the best way to put it. Lauren 20 do you wear hats . Charles i dont. You are never going to get your fts exchange. Look at his hair. Neil are just a deplorable human being. I think donald trump is coming out. Can we go back . There we go. Maybe not. There he is. Cf he says something, zoom in on that. Why did you decide to come . You didnt have to. A trial. The attorney general. You have to expose the hashtag to see whats going on. Frankly, frankly, you saw what was put out about that is disgraceful. Did he say good afternoon. Adam this is following up, talking to reporters during a break outside the trial. He has harsh words for Leticia James and the attorney general, before the judge, depending on the eye of the beholder removed a couple prior cases in 2014 or business transactions that would no longer be part of this so he has not had a harsh thing to say about arthur, plenty of harsh words for Leticia James. What that means i have no idea but he is promising to make his presence known. More after this. This is american infrastructure. Megawatts of power, rails and open road, and essential services of every kind. All running on countless invisible networks, making it a prime target for cyberattacks. But the same aipowered security that protects all of google also defends the systems running americas infrastructure. For these services. For the 336 million of us living here. Municipal bonds dont usually get the Media Coverage the stock market does. In fact, most people dont find them all that exciting. But, if youre looking for the potential for consistent income thats federally taxfree, now is an excellent time to consider Municipal Bonds from hennion walsh. If you have at least 10,000 dollars to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 18002173217. Well send you our exclusive bond guide, free. With details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. Hennion walsh has specialized in fixed income and Growth Solutions for 30 years, and offers highquality Municipal Bonds from across the country. They provide the potential for regular income. Are federally taxfree. And have historically low risk. Call today to request your free bond guide. 18002173217. Thats 18002173217. Neil taylor swift, susan lee. We connect, you decide. Any given sunday except taylor swift sundays. 29 Million Viewers at peak times watching the mostwatched sunday event since the super bowl, 27 million on average watch the cheese pickup the jets. 24 million watch the blowout. And also you have ryan reynolds, and Travis Kelsey on the chiefs display. The nfl is loving the taylor bump because sizable increase in female viewership, 0. 50 the best 50 more teen girls across the board of all ages and i cannot say any more but the power of a taylor swift economy. Not the first billiondollar door, 2 million possibly, also contributed 5 billion to the economy because of all this travel and these kids wanting to pay thousands for the tickets. Travis kelsey getting a boost, 400 increase in merchandise sales. Neil she is in a separate orbit. Madison 3 million instagram followers since this was revealed, more than all three still here. And flipping into someones the ams which happened. Madison neil this might be a publicity stunt to help boost kelseys career but also the heirs to her movie which is a Box Office Opening next weekend. You think it is real but we all have a love story. Neil we will have more after this. But you can invest in them. At t. 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The call is free, and theres no obligation. You know medicare wont cover all your medical costs. So, call now and see why a Medicare Supplement plan from a company like humana just might be the answer. Neil let me be swift. See what i did . It was the best i could do with no warning. We are down a lot on the stock market, up a lot Interest Rates and that is what the juggernaut is today. How it balances out i dont know. Brian brenberg, hey, guys