The east coast. Today, the Fourth Quarter is on. Markets this morning are higher by a fraction as cross the board as we begin the final stretch of 2023 on the first trading day of the Fourth Quarter. Dow industrials up 8 points, nasdaq up about 30 and s p 500 higher by 2 and a quarter. Earnings will begin to flow for the Third Quarter next week with the major banks leading the action. Stocks finished the Third Quarter under selling pressure, down about 3 on average, take a look. The nasdaq was down better than 4 on the Third Quarter, markets are still higher for the year with the dow industrials up a fraction, the s p 500 higher by 11 and two thirds percent for the year so far, and the nasdaq higher by 26 and a third percent yeartodate. The Third Quarter pressure because of Higher Oil Prices and higher Interest Rates. We see brent continuing elevated ahead of the opec meeting kicking off on wednesday, opec secretary general is joining me today at 8 45 a. M. Eastern. Right now, crude oil at 91, 45 a barrel, up two thirds of a percent. Take a look at Interest Rates this morning, with the two year and 10 year on the move, take a look and we see prices up, prices down and yields up, the two year up 7. 7 basis points, the two year at a level of 2. 635 ahead of a big week of data. Tomorrow we get the august jolts report estimated at 8,830,000 job openings for the month, ahead of the friday job numbers, economists are expecting a 163,000 jobs added to the any the month of september of. European par gets, the ft 100 in london well take a look at the european indices, which are lower you across the board. Ft 100 down 34 cab cac quaranten 27. Chinese and south korean markets closed for the holidays, the nikkei average was open and lower by a third of a percent. Investors reacting to fireworks on capitol hill over the weekend as lawmakers passed a continuing resolution to fund the government until midnovember and avert a Government Shutdown leaving congress 45 days to pass the remaining Appropriations Bills on the dock e President Biden signed the bill saturday night and i sm spoke with jason smith on sunday morning futures. Will you be dealing with appropriation bills, single subject bills . Absolutely. Maria, first, weve already passed more than 70 of all the funding out of the house of representatives by just single subject bills. We still have additional work to do, the other 30 , and thats in fact what were going to do over the next couple weeks in congress. In fact, we were supposed to be gone this coming week and Speaker Mccarthy said were absolutely not leaving. Maria still, the drama set to continue with florida congressman matt gaetz threatening to bring a motion to vacate the speakers seat and oust speaker Kevin Mccarthy. Joining the conversation all morning long columnist and Fox News Contributor and michael lee strategy founder, michael lee. Mornings with maria is live right now. Im going to ride my bicycle, bicycle, bicycle. I want to ride my bicycle. Maria time for the hot topic of the hour. President biden is tearing into republicans after Congress Fair roughly avoids a narrowly avoids a Government Shutdown. Watch this. Stop playing games. Get this done. This agreement today, while averting an immediate crisis, ends in i guess its 45 days now. Theres already one down of. Just before thanksgiving. Quite frankly, im sick and tired. Im sick and tired of the brinksmanship and so are the American People. Ive been doing this as you point out to me a lot, a long time, ive never quite seen a Republican Congress or any congress act like this. Maria meanwhile, florida congressman matt gaetz says he will try to oust speaker Kevin Mccarthy this week, gaetz is planning to pursue the motion to vacate the speaker after democrats helped mccarthy pass the shortterm spending bill. I spoke with house ways and Means Committee chairman jason smith about this yesterday on sunday morning futures. Its a waste of time if he brings a motion to vacate. The only way a motion to vacate could be successful is if matt gaetz did exactly what he yells at Speaker Mccarthy doing, thats only way he can be successful is if he has 200 plus democrats. Basically gaetz is going to lurk with nancy pelosi, Hakim Jeffries and the rest of the democrats in order to remove the republican speaker and let me tell you. If you remove a republican speaker, that puts the democrats in power, these investigations will be done and stalled. Maria liz peek, mike lee joining me. Liz, lets first take on joe biden looking tough, hes trying to get tough, stop all the beingsmanship, i brinksmanship, i think he had the speech written before they averted the shutdown. I think he is sick and tired. What of, im not quite sure. Theres a really good reason why republicans are making a point of trying to slow spending. Our spendingic out of control. The government is going to within the next couple years be accounting for 44 of our entire economy. This is unsustainable. Everyone knows it. While joe biden is up there lying to the American People about cutting the deficit, the deficit in the last fiscal year, the one just ended, was 2 trillion. Twice what it was the year before. We cant afford that. As we look at Interest Payments taking an ever big part of our economy and our government budget, major programs are going to suffer and struggle and this president is doing absolutely nothing about it and also by the way not leading in any way the discussion on spending or budgets or anything else. Where has he be . Hes been out fund raising on the west coast. Give me a break that hes so plus traited. Guess what, the American People are frustrated not with the republicans in congress who are trying to draw a line in the sand but with this president. Maria thats absolutely right. Lets not forget he waited months and months before having a conversation with House SpeakerKevin Mccarthy during the debt negotiations, mike. Yeah. Maria, liz hit the nail on the head in that the spending is absolutely out of control and i think the numbers are worse than she described. The cbo said at the end of may they were expecting a trillion andahalf dollar deficit, i think well come in at 2 andahalf trillion dollars. Were spending 7 trillion but were bringing in 4 andahalf trillion. This is unbelievable. Nothing like this has ever happened in a time of expansion and that means next year without dramatic spending cuts which we are clearly not going to get from this congress, okay, were going to be closer to a 3 trillion deficit, which is just unbelievable. For matt gaetz or anyone who is looking to shut down the government, its a step in the right direction. Maria nobody believes joe biden is upset. We all know where the spending has been. Stay with us. Well be right back. upbeat music awww. Awww. Awww. Nope. Constant Contact delivers the Marketing Tools your Small Business needs to keep up, excel, and grow. Constant contact. Helping the small stand tall. Hi, im stacey, and ive lost 60 pounds on golo. guitar music this belt i used to wear, way down at the first and second notch, its the only thing ive kept from before losing weight and im keeping this because im never going back. First, weve already passed more than 70 of all the funding out of the house of representatives by single subject bills. We still have additional work to do of the other 30 and thats what were going to do over the next couple weeks in congress. In fact, we were supposed to be gone this coming week and Speaker Mccarthy said were not leaving, were going to finish the job. Maria that was house ways and Means Committee chairman jason smith with me yesterday on sunday morning futures. Lawmakers passed a continuing resolution saturday night to fund the government until midnovember, november 17th and avert a Government Shutdown leaving congress 45 days to pass the remaining Appropriations Bills on the docket. You heard the chairman say theyve funded 70 . Joining me now is georgia congressman buddy carter, a member of the budget committee. Thank you for being here. How did you vote and tell us work ahead. Well, first of all, i supported the continuing resolution. Whereas i understand that a Government Shutdown is not the worst thing that could happen. The worst thing that could happen would be for us to continue this reckless spending that we have that throwed a 33 trillion debt, led to 2 andahalf trillion dollar budget deficit that we have this year, that cannot continue. A Government Shutdown is not the answer. It brings attention brought to it. It needs attention brought to it. But at the same time we need to keep doing the work. We have 70 done thus far. We need to finish the rest of it. I believe we can do that. The speaker has us in this week. Well be in, doing our work and well be finishing up. Maria meanwhile, matt gaetz, congressman from florida, rounding up a couple other people to threaten to bring a motion to vacate this week to oust t Speaker Mccarthy. Gaetz posted on x, im trying to change washington, congressman. Whats going on there in terms of this motion to vacate . What are your expectations . Well, first of all, this is personal. Everyone in the conference knows that matt gaetz despiess Kevin Mccarthy. Its pretty wellknown. It is personal. Its ironic for me to think that Kevin Mccarthy who used democratic votes to help pass a continuing resolution, yet he wants to do the same thing, use democratic votes in order to get Kevin Mccarthy to vacate the chair. I mean, whats the irony in that . He is no better off. Kevin mccarthy has done a great job as our speaker, weve made a lot of success, a lot of gains and we need to continue on now. Maria what about the drama over the weekend with democrats trying to stall the continuing resolution, i mean, new york congressman Jamaal Bowman is apologizing this morning after being caught on camera pulling a fire alarm before the house could vote on the shortterm government funding bill. He basically did it so that he could get everybody out of the building to waste time and amazingly new york congresswoman alexandria ocasiocortez is defending bowman. Watch this. They are protecting someone who has lied to the American People, lied to the United States house of representatives, lied to congressional investigators, but theyre filing a motion to expel a member who in a moment of panic was trying to escape a vestibule. Give me a break. Maria congressman, your thoughts . Im not surprised. Are any of us naive enough to believe that he thought that that would open the door . I mean, this is obviously an obstruction of congress. He should be prosecuted, just like anyone else who was at the capitol who tried to do this should be prosecuted. He is no more above anyone else who would have done it and his actions here, they should have consequences. Theres no question about that. And where aoc is getting this from is ridiculous. Maria it really is ridiculous. What, he thought that if he pulled a fire alarm that would buy him time . You know, im going toed a tt something right now. Weve got some characters in congress. It wouldnt surprise me if there were some who actually believed that. At the same time, he knew what he was doing, he was trying to hold up the process, he was trying to obstruct congress and that was a criminal activity and he should be prosecuted for it. Maria all right. We also want to play the sound from President Biden addressing the current houses impeachment inquiry underway. Heres what the president said about that. Watch. The speakers made a terrible bargain in order to keep the speakership, hes willing to do things that i think knows are inconsistent with the constitutional process. Maria congressman, what exactly is he talking about . Who knows what hes talking about. If hes talking about the impeachment inquiries, then hes absolutely wrong. Look, what were doing in the impeachment inquiries is right. It is evidencebased. It is logical. And it is constitutionally required. We in congress have the responsibility of following up on these things. Remember, these are not articles of i impeachment yet. They are only in inquiry. We are looking to see if theres enough evidence to bring about an impeachment and certainly impeachment is serious, its a very serious issue, and it should not be taken lightly. Thats why you go through the inquiry and thats why were doing what were doing, trying to uncover the evidence and let the truth lead us where it will. Maria how much more evidence do you guys need . Weve got 20 shell companies, the chairman of the House OversightCommittee Says the bidens have taken in 20 plus million dollars, youve got witness testimony calling this bribery and a coverup of that bribery from the doj. What are you looking for . Well, i think were getting very close. Of course, weve got three committees, jim jordan on justice, jamie comer on oversight and jason smith with ways and means. All three committees are looking at this now. I think before long theyll come up with a recommendation. I look forward to getting that recommendation. If matt gaetz and a couple of whoever he has, if they go through the impeachment process and put democrats in control, thats going to stall this, thats going to stall what we are doing and what weve achieved thus far. Thats why i just wish they would stop this. Maria understood, congressman. When are you expecting matt gaetz to bring that motion . He will probably bring it, if not today, then tomorrow. Were headed back up there today and i expect for him to be presenting that any time now. In fact, i think he tried to do it before we adjourned last week. Maria all right, congressman. Well be watching all of that. A lot of drama this morning. Thanks very much. Buddy carter, good to see you, sir. Thank you, always. Maria quick break and then how markets are moving on the first trading day of nonet and the Fourth Quarter. The dow industrials up a fraction, nasdaq up 38, continuing the raleigh. Chief Market Strategist phil orlando is with us with some expectations for the rest of the year. Stay with us. The first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. We just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. Start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. Start for free at godaddy. Com loving this pay bump in our allowance. Wonder where mom and dad got the extra money . 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Futures are indicating a fractional gain at the start of trading this morning, the dow industrials just turned negative on this the first trading day of october as well as the first trading day of the Fourth Quarter. The dow industrials right now down just a fraction, 7 points, the nasdaq is up 37 and the s p 500 higher by a fraction. It was a rough Third Quarter, stocks finished the Third Quarter lower on pressure, down about 3 on average, nasdaq was down better than 4 . We are looking ahead to a big week of data. Weve got jobs data on deck on friday, weve got the august jolts report out tomorrow morning, following the september adp report on wednesday. Jobless claims on thursday and the september jobs report coming out on friday. Joining me is federated hermes chief equity Market Strategist, phil orlando. Great to see you. Thanks so much for being here. Another issue that were looking ahead to this quarter is going to be the holidays and how robust well see performance there, given the slowdown in the economy. What are your expectations for jobs in this market going into year end . Good morning, maria. Thank you again very much for having me on this morning. The labor market day d data thae going to get this week will be pretty good on average. Jobless claims is at a nine month low. While the labor market we think into the end of the year and into next year is slowing, slowing gradually, so this weeks labor market related data should be in pretty good state. But the other question you raised i think is an important one in terms of the consumer. Just last week we got the final revision on Second Quarter gdp. It was unrevised at 2. 1 year on year but the key issue was the contribution to personal consumption spending. That number got cut in half from 1. 7 gain to 0. 8 gain. Thats consistent with what weve seen with backtoschool spending. Backtoschool spending in the first three months of this year, the june, july, august period, is only up 2. 1 . A year ago, backtoschool spending was up 9. 8 . We dont know what septembers numbers are. Theyll come out in two weeks. The initial trend isnt good. We saw Easter Spending earlier in the year was sluggish as well. And that obviously raises questions about how you robust you is Christmas Spending going to be and thats an important contribution to corporate earnings, Fourth Quarter gdp, and Financial Market performance generally. Maria yeah. And were going to start those Third Quarter earnings reports in about a week andahalf and that will likely be the market mover that we discussed. But very soon after its going to be all about the holidays. I spoke with jerry storch. He wasnt optimistic about the upcoming holidays. Watch this. Were headed towards a very difficult holiday season. When you strip out inflation, retail sales of physical products, of things, have been negative for 11 straight months and i expect that trend to continue. People say the consumers healthy. I honestly dont know what theyre talking about. They point to the services number, the increase there. Most of the services increase is not cruises and hotels the and restaurants, eating out. Most of the increase is people having to pay higher rent or higher medical bills so actually the consumer is getting more and more leverage. Maria so more and more leveraged, phil, all of this points me back to the Federal Reserve and whether the fed is going to move rates again in the november meeting. The Federal Reserve and European Central bank is set to speak in the coming week. The l central bank is expected to show some optimism that their fight against inflation is make progress as we head into the end of the year but even with inflation way down from the highs, phil, youre seeing oil prices undermine what could have been a good story, right . Oh, no question. And mr. Storch i think is spot on that spending on goods has slowed considerably. Its been the Services Spending that has kept the consumer floating as it were. But those numbers are coming down and coming down sharply and you pointed out energy prices, crude oil was in the the mid60s in june. Were now the low 90s. Gasoline prices are up 25 . Wage inflation is going up. Shelter costs are still elevated. Food prices are elevated. All of that is weighing on the consumer. The amount of excess savings that these consumers had back in september of 21, two years ago, 2. 3 trillion. That number now is down to 370 billion as of july. We think number will be essentially zero by the end of october, just as were getting into the heart of the christmas season. Delinquencies on credit cards have nearly doubled over the course of the last two years. I think the consumer is under stress and that will manifest itself we think in some very choppy christmas related spending yeah. Look at rates today. The higher the rates, the more of a squeeze on consumers particularly in the housing market. Im with michael lee this morning. Mike, jump in. Yeah, hi, phil. So the market and the street is looking for some sort of reacceleration in the end of this year, into next year. And based on what youre seeing with the consumer, im seeing similar things, were also seeing it in used car loans in terms of acceleration of delinquency rates. The consumer seems pretty tapped out. I would say this 18 to 24 month lag in the fed rate hikes hasnt really hit the economy yet. Are you buying into this reacceleration of Economic Activity going into next year . We expect the economy to slow and youve touched upon the key reason, the lag effect of Monetary Policy. It typically takes 12 to 18 months for the full effect of a Monetary Policy change or series of changes to work their way through the economy. The fed didnt start to get serious on rate increases until june of last year. You add 18 months to that, that brings to you the end of this year. We expect that gdp numbers are going to move into sub1 growth territory. Were not calling for a recession. Weve got sort of a soft landing thesis. But weve been growing at a pace of about 2 the last couple of quarters. We think those numbers are going to slow. Maria do you want to buy stocks here, phil or do you want to wait until tensioner period is finished so we get what managers are saying. We have been expecting roughly a 10 to 12 correction during this choppy august, september, october period. Were down about 8 . We think weve got a little bit more to go. I think the Federal Reserve, the november 1st meeting, we expect another rate hike from the fed. The market may remain soft going into that. At that point we think the fed may pause. Markets historically do well on pauses. We dont expect the fed to begin cutting rates until the back end of next year. Maria all right. We will leave it there. Phil, great to see you. Thanks so much. Phil orlando weighing in this morning. Well see you soon. Quick break and then china calling the u. S. A, quote, empire of lies, after the state Department Said that the ccp is funding a global disinformation campaign. The Gatestone Institute senior fellow gordon chang is here with more on that. About a cashew farmer from mozambique named carlos. Carlos lifted himself out of poverty with the help of techoserve. Go to technoserve. Org and see how you can support struggling farmers like carlos. Its a different way to make a difference. Is it possible to fall in love with your home. Before you even step inside . Discover the Magnolia Home james hardie collection. Available now in siding colors, styles and textures. Curated by joanna gaines. Cheryl has details now. Cheryl the former president said hes prepared to fight for his, quote, name and reputation today as he calls out attorney generaout attorneygeneral. He writes he should resign from the bench and be sanctioned for abuse of power and a potential interference with the president ial election of 2024, likewilikewise Latisha James shd resign. This is after it was ruled that trump and his two sons committed a years long fraud scheme. James wants 250 million penalty against the former president and his company, trump was in iowa over the weekend. Listen. The radical left democrats, marxist communists and fascists indict me, i consider it a great badge of honor. Because im being indicted for you. Cheryl arguments in the case are set to begin around 1 0eu a. M. Today, right here in new york city. Target is teaming one the department of Homeland Security to curb shoplifting and organized crime. The company says it reached its breaking point after having to close a handful of stores in major cities like new york and san francisco, writing, quote, we cannot continue operating stores because theft, organized retail crime are threatening the safety of our team and guests and contributing to unsustainal business performance. Target said it will begin hiring more security guards for stores, using locked cases for products that are frequently stolen and theyre going to make a significant investment in cyber defense. Finally, taylor swift went to another football game. I feel like you he should end my headlines right here. Do we need to do the nfl leadup. I will. All right. Kansas city chiefs beating the new york jets with a star studded crowd. Heres taylor swift. Shes cheering on travis kelce, her rumored boyfriend. She brought some friends. Aaron rodgers cheering from the sidelines following surgery. The chiefs scored the first 17 points. The jets came back, tied the game with two touchdowns from quarterback zach wilson until Patrick Mahomes sealed the deal. Watch. Galloping away, escaping again, mahomes with the first down and inbounds before the touchdown that will end the game. Cheryl its quite a play. Chiefs beat the jets 2320. Now to philly, look at this amazing catch from the eagles, eagles taking down the commanders in overtime 3431. The longest touchdown of the day came from Stan Franklin returning the interception 99 yards, kurt cousins got revenge, picking up their first win of the season over the panthers. Did i mention that taylor swift went to a football game, maria . Did you happen to hear that. Maria they said at the nfl its an open invitation, she is welcome to come to every game. Cheryl at least jets fans got something to perk them up without Aaron Rodgers around. Maria thats true. Cheryl well see. Maria thank you, cheryl. Meanwhile, we continue to see propaganda coming from communist china, the latest is china calling the United States, quote, the true empire of lies over the weekend. And the state Department Released a new report finding that the kai niece government is investing Chinese Government is investing billions of dollars every year into a global disinformation campaign. The report from the state Department Says beijing is manipulating global media for censorship, data harvesting and secret purchasing of foreign news outlets, the Chinese ForeignNews Ministry calling the report disinformation. Joining me is senior fellow, author of the coming collapse of china and china is going to war author gordon chang is here. Thank you very much for being here. Weve seen a lot of the chinese pprop began a da over propaganda over and over again, during covid they were sending information about propaganda sites run by the ccp. What are your thoughts out of the state information on chinas disinformation game. It was very good for the state department to issue this comprehensive report. We are seeing more and more evidence of chinas disinformation throughout the world. It is sometimes and some places very effective, such as in the global south. But oftentimes chinese propaganda is ham fisted and counter productive. Where it counts for china in taiwan, it has not been working well for china and as a matter of fact it produced opposite results but none the less theyre Getting Better and better at this. They have corrupted a lot of media around the world and bought influences in places like the United States. Maria yeah. Its true, they want to buy forbes right now, right . I mean, weve talked about this fight over who is going to acquire forbes. Officials in russia or china. Beijing is reportedly also blocking a Hong Kong BasedSenior Executive at u. S. Advisory firm krol from leaving Mainland China. The executive traveled to Mainland China back in july and told his employer that he cant leave now, gordon. Your thoughts on this . Well, this is akin to hostage taking and also its just the latest in a series of malicious attacks against foreign business. Weve seen china, for instance, go after the data providers and investigators, so for instance the mince group raid in march where all employees in beijing were taken into custody, clearly a violation of chinese law if such a thing exists but the point here is had that china ths to make sure going back to the propaganda issue that only its version of the truth is rethighed the business community. So relayed to the business community. Weve got to understand right now that this is you cant trust anything coming out nice footwork. Man, youre lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. Now you can stream all your games like its nothing. Yes [ cheers ] yeah woho running up and down that field looks tough. Its a pitch. 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