strong and you've got a fed chair saying i may cut rates. >> the economy is strong, but it's slowing down. we're expecting growth in the second quarter of less than 2%. we're expecting growth in the low twos for calendar 2019, the national association of business economists say a 60% chance of a recession before the end of 2020. it is possible if we get into a trade war not only with mexico but with china, with europe, we've got an autos decision that is also coming, that could become more powerful than a fed rate cut in derailing this ten-year economic expansion. certainly a rate cut is going to be good for the stock market in the short term, but the way expansions end as we've discussed before is something bad happens to them. they get murdered. they don't die of old age. and a widespread trade war with multiple combatants, that could murder it. >> we'll find out.