they know unless they get 35% minimum or so of the hispanic vote, they can't win the election. they're going to hope and pray that that 70% doesn't turn out because hispanic turnout is traditionally lower than the numbers indicate. if that percentage holds up, it makes it very, very difficult. in states like this one, in states like colorado, a swing state we're in, or nevada, or even north carolina and ohio, for the republicans to win. they are a minority of a minority demographically. that's what that number shows. >> we have nate silver's estimates today. he points out some fascinating thing. a very smart guy who writes for the new york times. he points out what's going on. he analyzed the polls coming in and going out of debates since 1969. he doesn't look at who won the debate. he looks at the polls before and after to see what happened in those debates. he found usually a small bounce coming out of the first debate for the challenger, not the