so, does he really have the lead he wants? is it solidified? >> i don't think it's solidified. i think there are a couple things working against him. he's gotten another look from voters and he's doing well in the polls now, but there's a long time between now and when the voting starts in three months. a lot can change. if we're seeing numbers like this in three months, then i'll say, yes, it's his to lose. but right now, what you're getting is ila lot of people wh are taking a fresh look at him. he's still capped. he's still not getting a lot of the supporters who were tea party supporters. he still has a religion issue where a lot of evangelical voters, which dominate the iowa caucuses, say they're not comfortable with a mormon candidate. i think romney has to perform again tonight. i think perry has to find his sea legs in the debate tonight. if he doesn't, he's going to have a tough case making it in the media primary, this first primary we're engaged in right now, which is who the media and tattering class decides will be the eventual nominee. >> michael, if there's one clear