Looks at the year 1774. And leads up to the beginnings of the revolutionary war. Enjoy but to be, now and over the weekend on cspan2. Host and now, please join me in welcoming our next speaker. Statement doing of the gavel. [laughter]. So were just going to dive right in. Us all read a little intro and then we will jump right in. Lets start here. I have no interest in giving a speech. On friday here we go and just in time for thanksgiving. A book to help you deal with people with whom you disagree. Everyone. [laughter]. So, gavel, intro, questions. Please send your zip pretty they do not have to be related to just book. Here we go. [applause]. My name is melissa kane, welcome to the hosting of scott adams. In his new book loserthink how untrained brains are ruining america he develops and dives into shortcuts. This would think is responsible for people stereotyping all of trump supporters, as racist. And gun control is equal to full compensation and most importantly avoiding self reflection and personal relationships and were very excited to have him with us now. In his new book, mary lane and what arrest you guys would like to asko him, he said nothing is offlimits. So ladies and gentlemen, please welcome scott adams. [applause]. Scott it is a word i invented because i noticed when i was on twitter mostly, the debate with various controls and real people, and every once in a while somebody would make a really good comment that i think, i dont quite agree with that but its really well put. I checked in the profile, they would be a lawyer or an economist, scientists. An annuity comment that is just that shipped crazy. Im probably not supposed to say that my look at it nothing, one who said this. And i would click on the profile. It would be a poet or a musician or a journalist. [laughter]. And i would think to myself, is a coincidence or is there something about your experience in the different fields and teaches you how to think. And a reflecting on my own experience. I have a degree in economics. And an mba in the literally teach you how to think. Its not so much the learning of the specifics of economics and they teach how to compare things and teach you how to about the time valuehe of money and these are just some of the techniques howith the teacher had how to think productively about your world. Scientists have their own way of looking at things, historians, psychologists. In some weird reason, ive had experience in all of the field. Im a trained hypnotist. Melissa please dont. [applause]. Scott overton Corporate America for 16 years. So just by chance, i have experience a lot of domains a new pickup how did they think in enose o domains. I thought i would write a book and fill in your gaps if you have not had those experiences. Melissa are you makingg a case for multidisciplinary. Is it just on the non humanities. Scott does not even mourning the death of the fields. I can teach you how to an economist things. It how easy it is. So cost, if youve heard of that concept raise your hand. Maybe less than half. So some cost refers to the idea that youve already spent your money on something. Say you have invested it. That you should not look to that to make your next decision. Another jason say that money is gone i cannot get back and theres nothing i can do in the future they will change the fact that it is gone. In a sulk. So if you make a decision based on the money you have already spent, which will do, they say i finally put x dollars into an dont want to waste it. And then a better down and keep investing. Will that feels like common sense but the first time here, you cannot change the past, you say well we are, thats a look. It is gone. I will make my decision as if i were to starting today and have not heard of that other stuff. You just have to hear some of these things once and becomes part of yourr thinking. Melissa you really want to stay away from calling people names. Calling people stupid will not make them smart. You wrote that. [laughter]. Its a pity and is true. You said those are think because you wanted to addressay the behavior and not demonize the person pretty can you a talk abt these labels and how that is one method. Scott mockery is incredibly powerful people would say to me, i cannot tell you how many people said this. They would write to me they would say, we were going to do the certain policy at work but we saw coming of years mocking it so we decided not to. [applause]. Because nobody wanted to deal with things that have already been pre mocked. Usually we have to wait. I mock you in advance. No eating. [laughter]. Even elon musk is writing about his employees tell them how they should behave and what the culture should be like. One of the steps was to not do anything. Policy wise. Now the power of that everybody is knowing with the word dilbert is in the comic, the knowing when we see him right. So use that same tech think bike coming up with the word list think people people can say specifically, is a photo i took with my phone of the page of the book that explained it better than i can. So get permission in the book 23 down the page to know people who have a gap in their thinking. And maybe feel good. Having word like loser think makes it easier talk people. Nobody wants toie hear, and that is loser think. As i was just checking my twitter feed of argument here, must be one of the book, and kissing other people listen think. It is already working is whatlri was thinking. So music mockery is most productive way to mock people into more productive thinking. Speech of dok you think people who need this bookk quiet. What is it kind of like holiday sales for people to buy it. [laughter]. [laughter]. Scott youre pretty much guaranteeing that somebodys going to give this book to somebody in the holidays when you named the book loser think. It feels like aoo gift. But youre not really sure. Mac hey uncle bob, i got to this book. Loser think. This is about other people. [laughter]. So one of the chapters that you write talks about mind reading. Unintended, you read my mind with it because it was one of the most frustrating things that i see on the internet. People sort of trying to assert that they know what is in your soul, what is your mind was in symbiosis heart. Scott mind reading, and applying it in this way gives it a little power. News, somebodys jabbering on one side or the other and quite often, is about an assumption about what a stranger was thinking. What is the real reason theyre doing this. Was sometimes, youre right, and sometimes it is obvious stuff, political is usually the obvious but so manyim times that we coud not possibly know with the strangers thinking. It is evident that youre not good at migrating, i give you every relationship you have a fair been in. Theres probably somebody sitting at right next to you that in the last 24er hours assumed that you were mad when you were not. He said that you werent hungry when youre not. Assume you are happy when you werere not. Melissa my husband is in the front row so please be careful. [laughter]. Scott so mind reading is something that i call out. I give you the sword loser think. And it allows people to say oh yeah, that is a bad thing. It was so pervasive, i dont know if i have ever heard a Single Person never called nell. I go, youre imagining you can read somebodys find. The moment and is called out, it becomes part of the conversation and then you get to start spottingen it. Wait until you see what happens in the coming weeks. You will see mind reading all over the place. And you will t say, i saw this before but it crystallized because somebody talked about it as it were. And that is the thing. Melissa so theres a lot ofe Great Concepts in the book but there is something here i really feel like i should say. In one part you talk about the difference between coincidences and things that are actually, anything you should take seriously. So is writing about estate, and talking about through all of the things that are happening. It appears to be magical. A few days ago i arranged my collections of flashlights. It was like, you have a collection of flashlights. [applause]. This book should be called a collection of flashlights. How many flashlights do you have. Their community. I need to know. Scott i really like flashlights. I confess that readily. And a bill destroying to my flashlights in my man cave in my garage. Literally put them up on board. Living in my house, someone run into a power pole with an suv and plunged my neighborhood into darkness. The same time i built a shrine to flashlights. [laughter] i said to myself i went to my flashlights and that was it. So how many do you have . Speech i recycle in throw some out theres a solid core collection of 25. Stu went are there antiques and other hard to find some and thats that version . Guest thats a good idea, mostly plastic and i like how they look i like flashlights i dont n know how to explain it. Traffic now we know you are not a fan of the press and i was reading it thinking i am a member of the press and i thought wow. Speech i didnt name you. I didnt feel like it was unfair when youre there attacking the structure of the prospered a lot of journalists would not disagree with you about brick you talk a little bit about thatbo and how the way it feeds into people think . Like to put it in the context of a small technological change that nobody noticed when it happened. Ea it what people are clicking on and why in some cases. Onehe set was the case once everybody could measure, these people click on this these people click on that, it would have become obvious the things we want to click on the things that make your hair catch on fire i dont want to hear about the budget i want to hear about impeachment. On here about a plot to overthrow the government we are all elevated is the news model is forcing us to more provocative stuff. Before they wouldve said heres the news and now it is replace entertainment to some extent but i bet some of you would relate to this. How. Many watch the news like entertainment a siding for the news anymore its for the laugh laughs. Host theres so many lies near everybodys hand should be out. [laughter] guest thats a problem once you can measure stuff theres no way that Public Companies beholding to stockholders could do anything but the things that get the most attention. We had to get to this point once the change happened we are in bubbles looks crazy or insane or stupid or maybe they are lying and we cant quite tell. We know theres something wrong in that bubble. We cant make any sense of it people are very interested in their news consumption. Conservatives are little more likely statistically to sample cnn once in a while because more pervasive. People on the left typically are not even aware of the argument on the right. For they might know one of them but not the good one, for example,. [laughter] , mine. [laughter] s thats part of the problem. Stu when you do get some tips on how to get out of your bubble how to recognize if youre in one and then how to communicate. Guest yes i recommend pharmaceuticals. [laughter] not in the way you think. If you watch the news there are pharmaceutical commercials that come on if you make the mistake of actually listening about one there are more problems and you knew the humans could have healthwise you can take this pill to solve this problem but then youre going to have diarrhea your heart will explode in your lungs and be congested. Forget about because all good jokes take that off the table, thats the first thing they do so when theres a pharmaceutical commercial on i say first of all get this off of their because i dont hear about all these problems because i dont have those problems but if i hear about them im going to get them. Im going to get all of those problems if i hear about them im like oh, i do think i have a rash as a matter fact. So wanted to change the channel as quickly as possible to the opposites of im on i go to fox news and vice versa with pharmaceutical commercials. In that way i miss a lot of the ugly commercials but exposing myself to content on both sides. I recommend that thats the way i do it if youre not sampling both sides you really dont know whats going on but you think you do you tell sorry about your dog snickers you write think my dog m snickers believes simon edit because they dont take her outside to play what she is clearly communicating to do so she knows she send the lets go outside signal snows i see it im physically able to see it go outside but i dont stop what im doing to take out that she think im stupid . So sometimes you are snickers and sometimes you are you in the scenario theres sometimes a requires empathy and imagination to really think about where the other person is coming from. So sometimes a creative person gives her little more vision of the world and the engineer or scientist bird before nursing different professions have different styles of thinking, it was not to insult one because theres ingenious that goes across every kind of domain. As an example of an artist or someone who creates for a living might have a little more propensity to imagine their other explanations for the facts. The story i use and there is my car is perpetually dirty. Nephew saw my dirty carha youd say to yourself thats kind of an expensive car youd think he could afford to get it while shes got a flexible schedule he certainly could get it washed, so if he can afford it has the time and its never washed, he probably saving water . He cares about something or hes blind . Whats the reason . The real reason is the one youd never imagine. Facture always try to think of it right now its the real reason whats the real reason to seek an tells . Yes im going to tell you the real reason is i have an irrational fear of public instructions. I dont know if any of you have this. But i dont want to be in public where b anyone can see me that i have to figure out the instructions while people are watching. Problem is im too literal. Because it will be very clear, but for example use the example of the go to the store olivia sign that says wait here. And the cashier s will say next come on up here and for a moment ill be stunned and says wait here. But youre saying go up. I dont know if you have that authority . [laughter] did you make the sign . Is this your sign . Or is this your bosses sign . Because if its your boss aside and here. [laughter] i dontam w want to get a car wh get halfway in and turned sideways they have to dismantle the carwash to free me and the headline idiot cartoonist destroys car wash. Tr thats when my car is dirty did you get that . Does anybody get that one . [laughter] no. [laughter] the point is you have to make assumptions to live. You cannot live and operate in the World Without continuously making assumptions including assumptions that what people are thinking no matter howlu poorly we do it. You have to do it tono survive. But just be aware, just because you cant think of the other reason these things could happen, especially if youre watching the news, that doesnt mean that one reason given is the reason. The fact they talk about the 48 hourr rule. Or you should just wait 48 is when you see something on the news that makes your blood boil and you think how could that happen, how could that happen and then two days later the nooses that didnt actually happen, it seems we got that wrong. So just wait a couple days let the fog of war dissipate before you get too worked up about it. Sue and excellent have a number of questions from the audience bird were going to sort of ping back and forth between the book and some questions. This is a great question. Why does delberts tail always wag when he does people . The characters are mostly versions of me. You know how you have lots of different personalities are all inside you . Will dog bird is a part of my personality but i couldnt do because i would be beaten up or jailed i think of those things but i just dontt do it because its not polite or illegal so dog bird can do them i like to show his delight of biting his tail because he doesnt have eyeballs or mouth. I got ears and a tail to work with thats about it. But hes a giant. [laughter] okay so this question is when you find yourself using user think that you have to fall into. What i have fallen to all the time is using analogies for more than they should be used for. It is just so easy because its a natural way to talk to make analogies. Now analogies are great for explaining new concepts for the first time. If youre trying to tell somebody what a zebra is theyve never seen a zebra but they know to horses, so it looks like a horse but its got stripes. Its a good shortcut. What you dont want to do is use the analogy to predict. In fact if you turn on the news shall see all kinds of people doing exactly that. It makes no sense. So if you see for example your cat has a little mark under his nose it looks like a hitler mustache that does not mean your cat is going to invade poland it doesnt work that way. Likewise if you seen the president criticizing the press, well yeah dictators did that. But that doesnt mean is going to invade poland either. That could mean the process crossed a line, hes productive or politically productive to criticize impaired dont take the analogy is predictive. Its really bad way to predict. Sosa slippery slope you talk about a number of things people do in a future trip as some people say about sort of how this guy is going to fall and how bad things are going to be based on history repeating itself. History repeats as one of the biggest loser think examples you are all familiar with. He heard a million times a seat in the newss you see history repeats. History does not repeat. It cant. Because you are in a different situation with different variables often you are familiar with the other history thedi y real one, so tht tells you not to do it at this time. The reason it seems like history repeats, first of all we are just reminded of other things, thats the analogy problem. We dont notice all the times history does not repeat. If you could somehow see a chart, heres your pie chart here are all the times history did notot repeat because it couldnt and heres this one sliver kind of looks like something that happened before, but is not predictive because you dont know which slivers going to repeat coincidentally and which is going to be the one you never notice didnt repeat. And wind big league talk about your political views and about how in some ways they are very liberal. Although now into a lot of defense, at least on twitter, you engage people about allegations about the president. Can you talk about how that came to be, sort of how you ended up in this position of somebody who may be very liberal on certain issues we find yourself defending a republican president . For the longest time i called myself left of bernie. Part of it was a little joke on myself because there was nothing left of bernie. [laughter] it was a way of not characterizing myself. But then the democrats found a bunch of people who are left of bernie and unlike old come on i had the space all to myself. Youve ruined everything for me. [laughter] what i meant was at least on social issues i am left of bernie. All give you some examples bernie would like to legalize marijuana i would legalize more drugs come certainly mushrooms, do a test on opioids, even if it was just locally. So the drugs on commercials . [laughter] another example, just to make the point, and abortion liberals and bernies with that yes under the rightri conditions, yes on abortion. I go left of that mindset i have a im out, whatever you want to do, ill be very supportive. So whatever is the consensus, going to be quiet and supportive. Because i dont have that kind of skin in the game, i dont add anything. I dont have the extra mail smarts to add onto your decision or anything like that is going to be exactly the same weather i have an opinion or not. Think the most credible laws, like when you have laws that people will kill w over, literally with abortion people will kill over their preferences for that. When its that potentially destructive, you need results no matter which way it goes, that is credible. On the people say oh, i didnt get my way, its really, really important to me but the way we arrive at it, that look credible to me to it meet the more men who are in that the less credible it is and women will have largely the same opinions. Ive never looked into it but they havent had that much difference of opinion on abortion are men and women about the same roughly . Alright so i dont add anything so i take myself out of it. Those are just two examples. So donald trump comes along, i was 2015, was just writing a blogog post about whatever caught my attention. I have a background as a trained hypnotist. When i sobbed from by said hey, i recognize thatru technique, that is great a incredible persuasion. Hes a clown genius people were calling him a clown, said yeah hes a clown, but wise it working . There is technique here. You dont see it if you have not had experience in that domain. I can see it clearly, i could see the other people who also had the same background could also see it just as clearly. Mike is a classic example he had the same training with hypnosis and stuff he started the same time i did. What we saw, was a guy bringing a flame thrower to a stick fight. I did not think it was a hard prediction, flamethrower, would beat stick almost every time. So by the time, was writing about his persuasion skillet wasnt about democrats it wasnt about anything except persuasion. They get pulled intoyo it, theres more in demand, the first article was a massively viral then people wanted to interview me about it and suddenly i got dragged in. Now i will claim, i did get to meet the president a year ago, he invited me to the oval office. It was the freakiest experience, sitting in the oval office with the president of the United States on the other side of the resolute desk, just chatting. [laughter] there is no experience i will ever have that will come close to how weird and cool that was. Steal the soap . So i did not steal the soap theres a lot of cameras there. So i will cop to the fact that you cannot hang out with him and then still be as critical as may be a could have been. Because i like him personally. Personally, if you hang out with him for ten minutes no matter what you started with, ten minutes later going to say hes a nice guy. Its really generous. Imagine this the guy who has more responsibility than may be anybody the world. But for half an hour, he made me feelr like i was the only thing that mattered. Like i was the only person in the room. And he could do that to you too. Heres the thing. He does have that charisma, that ability to make people like him and hate him too, for different reasons. Im not biased in terms of him personally, personally i like him. What a topic country would get out of him and the reason i did not feel any conflict about promoting his abilities which help to promote him, as i saw he was bringing a toolkit that had tools in it weve never seen before. And sometimes, your civilization will get a little ossified you will get stuck. Something that ordinary politician cannot unstick. An example would be trade with china, remember when he first started talking about a recent trade wars back, trade respect, how that record stock market . Trade wars not so bad, not so bad. Effectively never make an agreement which by the way i predict except maybe on some small stuff, i think we will be fine, we will just gradually decouple from china as we shouldin anyway. Anyway, i think he brought to the mix a set of tools that i thought could break free something so just needed to be, the box just needed to be shaken. And then see what we can do after we shake the box. I knew it would be messy, i knew there would be breakage, but everybody who voted for him knew that. They knew what they were getting, they got the breakage, they got the benefits, they are enormous at this point. If you like a lack of war and beating the counterfeit and the good economy for dont like those things maybe you have a different opinion. But on the personal stuff of course, is driving people crazy which is definitely a cost. Cost. Other, and the just political heat, definitely as an expense. But i thought that was a worthy expense to get some stuff done. The next president can bring the temperature down wilbanks as other benefits. Guest who do you think will be the next president . Mr. Super predictor. I think trump will win easily for reelection ill think thats much in doubt at this point. But the onene after, the one after, i think thats where it will get interesting. Sooner or later, aoc and matt yates will be running against each other. Probably not 2024. Sue and are they old enough . So shes not, he might be. Barely . Sooner or later the run against each other. Conway said his running. [laughter] before he left, well before he said that, i had identifiedr him as another master persuader. Long before he was talk about anything politically hides in all my god theres something hes doing this not like normal people. Itsng not like a write about music its not me doing it all. I was just seeing something that was another level theres an extra persuasive level there. And you seehe pas it. You see the impact he has on everybody. Anytime you inject kanye into any topic, its all changed. He is just such a force. So now hes doing sort of this religious revival stuff. Think maybe setting a sights higher than president , literally. I think he wants to be a spiritual leader in the United States. And maybe saying hes going to run for president is for effect. I think he actually has bigger sites as the president. C1 bigger than the president . Speech it we really dont have a spiritual leader whose nondenominational we dont have that do we . You got quiet didnt. [laughter] if got your mega churches in every religion has a leader, someone you can name but we dont have someone whose nondenominational, and would be regarded by everybody as openminded to the other religions but he does have a place they could be bigger than anything we have seen politically. You dont think a run for president . He might buy think he might have a bigger role. You dont think any of the democratics now like bloomberg would have ay shot . Guest years ago i wrote that bloomberg would be an excellent choice for president he was sort of middleoftheroad, pragmatic, seem to build a break with his party if he felt it, he had all of the qualities. But he is also 77. If you have not seen his speech or even worse, his mobile phone little video he did got to tell these guys over 70 turn your phone sideways, please. Turn it sideways. If you cant do that, you cannot be president , just turn it sideways. B [laughter] so if youve not seen Mike Bloomberg yet, give his speech announcing or as little video i just mentioned with the phone someone is holding up a phone, you have to see it because hes not the bloomberg who he used to be. And i hate to say that. Its a little bit of the joe biden problem which is a great patriots, great contribution to the country, total respect for both of those people. But there ist an age or we all need to know its time for somebody in the family to guide you off. Sue went on there. And fortune bloomberg as their fees trying to be president always got a better play . Because running for president allows him to go in strong and trash trump, so effectively its money plus hell get tv time, he may be doing just for the democrat who emerges. Just a way to weaken trump so they have a chance. It might be a way to take biden out because bloomberg goes in and the people who said well i might donate to abide in the organization all hold off a little bit because theres a guy whos the same age, s similar politics he might be doing it get biden out because biden cant possibly win against trump is a terrible matchup. Te but that helps with Elizabeth Warren for example. Is that longterm . Speech and pretty sure bloomberg does not want Elizabeth Warren to president either. Host thats what im saying imagines a four dimensional chess thing is probably just running for president. He is sobl smart, that it is strategic that its hard to understand why he would do something he cannot possibly win unless he surprises us all. At this point it looks like he couldnt possibly win. Well im gonna bring up right back to the book with this. So in your book, you write about your writing about Financial Advisors. To some degree, some parts of the book about being more skeptical, to filter what youre hearing from the horrible people in the media. [laughter] puts you write about Financial Advisors and how youve had to be skeptical of them, is a little twitter ready parts for you to take a picture of so to trigger the part says be skeptical of any experts who have a financial incentive to mislead you and almost no risk at their end. I wrote, political consultant. [laughter] so i wonder, is a couple of dudes with powerpoint, didnt get in his ear and say heres the plan, you just give us a whole bunch of money prayed this happened all the time,f especially in california we see this all the time we see wealthy people just burning their money and you say why . In its consultants. That may be part of it as well, maybe someday got in his ear and have the right chart . Guest thats one the best hypotheses i havent heard that one before. When you think it through, how hard would it be for a really persuasive consultants who know they get a big paycheck to convince a 77yearold yeah, this is your time. You know . Borders on elder abuse. [laughter] if they only get a billion you still okay. [laughter] some more questions here somebody wrote pleasee share any insights or opinions you have about thinkers such as the integral theory. Guest thats a big question Jordan Peterson, for a long time i would ban people from mentioning him on my periscope and people thought oh you must dislike Jordan Peterson, no because he was so popular i was sicking of hearing about him. [laughter] people kept saying what you think of Jordan Peterson on saint im sick of hearingat that. But, then i listened to him so i was like okay alright ive heard his name a billion times im so sick of him. Then i listen to a youtube video, doesnt matter which one theyre all l amazing, and i thought wow, this was powerful, different and important. Usually you dont go to youtube to find something important. I thought this is beyond helpful. This is important. And so i got hooked as many people do i started watching its content. It was just so useful, i dont how to explain it, was so different, fresh, useful, it was changing people. You see people were changing. Now you may know the story, he checked himself in for rehab. So apparently he had some issues, cut on some whatever it doesnt matter he checked himself into rehab. He think hes still there, workingrk through. I realize that on one side you say to yourself oh you hate to see heroes go to rehab. But i a different opinion about that. He is a role model. Him going to rehab is one of the most important things thats ever happened in this country. Wait until he comes back is going to be awesome. Going to be awesome. About. Never heard of those other guys. Host his videos about religion are interesting its a very sort of campbell kind of way of polling from all different strands and bring it together. Guest just to put a pin and that point the term city has it so together you still have to go to rehab . Like that is an important message. The addictiones thing is not about being smarter, clever, trying harder, the addiction is its own thing and it can get anybody. Its very important. Stay when someone asked you once had a fear of public speaking how did you get over . Guest i wouldnt say i ever had a natural fear of menasha on jet natural ham i took a Dale Carnegie course for the best things ive ever done its life altering. What it does is it teaches you what im doing now. Which is talk to a group of people as easily as if you were just talking to somebody you know. So it teaches you to do that. But i watched was in the class i watched person after person who mostly had been sent there by a boss usually because they couldnt stand in front of people and talk they would get too nervous. I remember watching a woman who was in the class, and you have to volunteer to talk. He had to volunteer when you are ready to come up and everybody would talk in front of the class she stood up there, have to the impression i think i can stand up your. She stood up there and she could not make words she started sweating in an airconditioned room. I watched beads of sweat while she standing front of the room trying to talk they ran off hernd nose, down her chin, they actually fill in the carpet in front of a room like this. She was afraid of public speaking. That was her experience. The thingw you need to know about the class is there is only one rule, that everybody gets complemented and you never criticize anything. So nobody who speaks will ever hear a bad word about them. She goes back to her chair, completely defeated. They are in the audience and were dying. Were dying for her. And the instructor gets up and he says, wow, that was brief. It was true. That was true. Next time she came a little bit better. In the end of the class, she was a professionalla speaker because she lived through the worst, and got a compliment. [laughter] got a lot of compliments because we all complemented her. So watching that transformation from nothing wibut positive words, is just lifechanging. You realize, the power of a compliments to the point where my philosophy if you withhold a complement you are thinking, your thinking something good about somebody you say oh, i dont need to say that, its almost immoral. If youve got a complement, just let it help. Cynical what a great point. [laughter] thank you. I feel a lot better now. I feel a lot better, thank you stomach actually write about this in your books i want to give you an opening to get to his one person the audience wrote what are some go to questions you can used to challenge and broaden your colleagues thinking . Guest go to questions. I use a technique called to the magic. When people are disagreeing with you, i have this experience they thinky they are disagreeing with my opinion, but really they have formed a misleading opinion of my opinion and theyre really arguing the misleading thing of myy opinion. If i try to correct it and say thats not my opinion, its actually this, too they then argue your actual opinion . Never, never, they just turn that into a new wrong opinions they can argue that one. So trying to get people to actually argue with my actual opinion has never worked my entire life. But, this technique ive tested and it works its the magic question goes like this you say to the person who is argue with you, tell me something you think is true, which you think i dont think is true. Just one thing you think is true that matters to this topic that you dont think i think is true. And the offer something and you say no i agree with you you get to the third one they usually disappear. [laughter] because they realize they ddidnt know what theyre arguing about because youre agreeing on the central points. Host it seems, im not on twitter, so im biased, why do you argue with folks . Thats the question. It b seems so futile sometimes you get in there youre spending your energy to try and change peoples minds and just seems that, assuming its a person and not like a bot, seeming its a human, then there you are spending your time trying to change the opinions of like redhead 52,. [laughter] sorry redhead 52. [laughter] i can only speak for myself there which is, i get to benefits the ordinary person does notf get. Fo for one people follow my twitter they follow the comments as well. And because im a cartoonist, i have some wittier comments than other people. Thats my job. So sometimes i like being witty because as part of the show. So if i can argue in a witchy way its just entertainment. But i also am drawn to it. I love it, also educational because you can say okay what responses i get . Youre learning what other peoples arguments are which strengthens your argument. So to me, its all good. I have a very high tolerance for trolls and insults, a lot of personal insults pretty get insulted a lot on twitter. But i have a high tolerance of that it doesnt bother me. I can get most of the benefits because the bad parts, the troll stuff, just doesnt bother me. Host thats a superpower, thats amazing. Alrighty so what is your advice to someone who is a conservative but works in a liberal industry like entertainment, movies or music. Is it possible to be overly conservative without ruining a persons career . Guest no. [laughter] ill give you some suggestions. Thisll make it go down better. Certainly you want to keep the most provocative stuff to yourself. If you are surrounded by people disagreeing with you, trying pacing its hypnosis trick at the salesperson trick et cetera means agreeing with people on all the things you can agree with and even matching them and style. You might match their body language, match the way they speak, anything you can match, breathing, you name it. As many things as you can match with somebody full make them feel more bonded and connected to you. They wont think it in their head, but they will feel it. This is a person who is likely in all of these ways. Then if you need to disagree, there are at least primed you set the table. Someone who realizes they have agreed with you on ten things are least compatible on ten things are now you can introduce that 11th thing. You dont to walk right into the middle of it with your mega hat on. [laughter] dont play it that way. Host gilbert is the only mailing list have been a subscriber for for the last ten years how come the characters learn from their mistakes of the years . If they did i need a new job. The beauty of the gilbert comic strip world as the characters exist. I dont have to think too hard its not like writing a new movie everyday because youve already got the characters. So just take the topic and throat into t that world and say that something a lazy guy would respond to, so its easier to write once youve got your character set in any situation works. Host this person writes which gilbert character he think he said youre all of them but is there one you feel especially close to . Originate gilbert was based on me he had might lack of social graces, my nerdy interest, he was a single guy, i was a single guy the time. He was basically an extended version of me except he was smarter because it was an engineer and im not an engineer. His body shape is actually based on a coworker. Host do they know . [laughter] he doesnt know. [laughter] i have never told him. Host whats his name lets tell him. Host i didnt know him that while he was somebody in the officee and walk by and mice thought it looked like a walking gilberts i guess. I always wondered years later did he ever end up in safeway or something to do anyone ever tap them on the shoulder and you remind me butoulder and i can place it . Host this person wants to know why you dont like the godfather film . You dont like godfather . Guest did you hear the murmur, very upsetting i feel like i need security. Host you may. Guest i will make the general statement i cannot watch movies at allav anywhere completely given up on movies or my Attention Span is shrunk and shrunk and shrunk until twitter size. Watchingze a two and half hour movie on anything, is painful now. Its like going to the dentist for me its like theyre moving so slowly. Thats the first thing. But, but the producer of the godfather recently was making fun of the avenger films he was making fun of the avenger types films and superhero films. Thinking to myself theres a reason they make a billion dollars, because the really entertaining. In those movies that dont make a billion dollars, theres a reason they dont make a billion dollars. If they were they be making a billion dollars. Said this weird background rampart artist partner economist which is a weird combination. And so when somebody says is someones art good i usually say is anybody buying it . If theyre buying it, its good. If they bite twice its really good. And if they dont buy it, i dont care how much art when inch of, nobody wants it. Gilbert was created because the audience said kind of like your generic cartoon in the beginning it was not in the workplace so much. But we like it a lot when it was in the workplace. So so what is it my buyers want . They wanted to be in the workplace, done. I moved it into the workplace, thats when gilbert took off. I am not on the side of artists who have this thing called artistic integrity of heard of,. [laughter] i try to avoid it at all costs see what is that loser think . [laughter] sue mega should be made thats the sequel. If youre an artist you should make things for the audience not yourselves of the audience is willing to shell out some hard cash for didnt make anything. Sue went let the hate mail. [laughter] and bring it on. Actually this is related to the earlier question may be the same answer. What is the most dangerous idea you have and you believe in . Not liking godfather might be it. It is or Something Else . The most dangerous idea, i guess if he dangers to whom, to me or to other people . I would assume other people. So i am a believer and we live in a simulation. I heard a grown up there referred to many times for me probably anybody who watches me on periscope knows i talk about this too much. This requires a little eexplanation. Host please. Nt[laughter] there are brilliant people have the same opinion elon musk is one, physicist it was invented by a physicist, kiana reeves . [laughter] the idea is this, if it would be possible in our lifetime and it certainly will, for us to tilt a little soft word into Software World with his characters in the world and thus characters live and move as if theyre real so they have a program to believe theyre real characters. Now if we try to build it today it would be a basic version, but certainly in 30 years, we would be able to make Little People and how do we know they arent if its this lifetime of the one after is eventually going to happen. How many are we going to make . Just one . No. The minute we think a total world thats like a Real Software simulation its thanks its a real world were going to make a bunch of them. How do you know it hasnt already happened . If it has ever happened, there are lots of them. On the people in them think they are real. So, the question you would ask yourself yeah . Yeah . Its dangerous because it would rip apart everything you believe they would be chaos. Let me just put this out heres food for thought. What with the world look like if it were programmed . Well for one thing, you would not put things my giving up program of worlds would not been observed yet. In other words it would be like a Software Game we are little character in the game is not walking to this adjacent property, never gets formed. Does our world look like that . At the quantum level it does. So if you go down to the smallest level, things dont exist, the only probably exist until somebody sees it. Or measures it. We actually know reality does not come into being and become solid until somebody needs it. Meaning they have observed it or measured it with an instrument. Year also went to have a world that you could not get out of it and look for the outside. Can a you get to the edge of the universe . Nope. You cannot. Shed go right down the line of all the things you would need to be true for us to be software and its all there. [laughter] and then the math, if you could have everyone there will be lots of them, if theyre really well designed the simulation will build its own simulations, all the way down. Host insists a theory you cant get out of . How do you disprove this theory . Its a magical monkeys theory,. Guest i dont have a solution for proving it. But like most religious beliefs fail they are tough to falsify. Does god exist or is he hiding . Wealth is allpowerful he can hide pretty easily. Thats why we dont find him so none of these things can be proven or disproven. But, if youre living your life like its a simulation, can you imagine you can hack it, that will be one exploration explanation of my life right now. It is crazy my life is, i just chatted withh the president is that normal . Ive a bestselling book ive got a cartoon strip i get to talk to all of you people. I dont have a normal life in anyway. But i have lived it like i can program it. Ive taken the assumption from an early age that reality would be programmable. At least for me. And treated that way. And i programmed exactly the life i fantasized as a kid. It is literally, exactly the life i imagined when i was six years old. Host what was the name of the book how to lose at everything and still come up plug in the book with all the chips of success. Guest that was of prior book. Make this feeds into one person in the audience asked theres one who characterizes deathlesses techie culture as a literate, tasteless, boorish, awash with money. Right here in San Francisco . What do you make of that . But you think of the tech culture is it doing to sign me up i want to be in the Cryogenic Chamber . Guest the reason im the creator of gilbert as im of that world, the technology world. I wish id gone to school for some kind of technical degree, because if i were not doing what im doing thats probably what i would be doing. I would building apps and stuff like that. I have a start up and i do build apps part i would be doing more of it. I love it. But, i do hear terrible things from people who are in it. I hear that even the people who are making good money intact are just desperately unhappy and unfulfilled for a variety of reasons. I dont know if thats true, i dont how universal it is doesnt sound good, but as long as it answers problems i will have materials for gilbert. [laughter] there is a silver lining. Host theres someone in the audience he was about persuasion and trumps mentors. Guest Norman Vincent peale, how many have heard the name Norman Vincent peale . When i was a kid, he was already well known as one of our most influential authors and writers about the power of positive thinking. In other words the idea you could program your simulation, you did not lose use those words the idea you could program your reality and life by changing how you thought. I was very influenced by that. And so is donald trump. In fact, Norman Vincent peale is not only a bestselling author, he was actually theot trump family pastor or administer a nap so he would see in church. Seeing their church on sunday and see the most influential person, maybe whoever lived in the United States, Tony Robinson be maybe the new one. That is the influence he is getting every sunday. I asked him about that when i talk to him and he went on about how amazing Norman Vincent peale was. And he was accused, his wife accused him of being a hypnotist because he was so influential. We know the president picked it up, he got it honestly from the best source ever. Id love to see his study of all the people who attended that church. And compared them to the average. That would be interesting. I can almost guarantee you there life results are dicompletely different than ordinary people. That is one. Then the roi comb thing is probablyco what you know he wasnt big on apologizing, he sits at all the time, when, win, win. You see all those qualities in trunk. He also see the persuasion part of him. Its got a lot going on there. See when you talk a lot in the book in the context of various kinds of arguments and ways of think about things about Climate Change. So the folks here in northern california, with wildfires, mudslides, this a lot going on here. Talk a little bit about your perspective on how people should think about Climate Change in a way thats not lose or think. Guest im not going to change any of your minds you are safe. So it every thought about Climate Change before, you will leave thinking the same thing. But allll he talked about as a productive way to analyze it. If that causes you to change your own mind, thats your business. But, here are some insights on that. I think it is useful to break up the Climate Change conversation into its parts and give them Different Levels of credibility. The central part is what the scientists are doing which is the chemistry and physics if you have some co2 to the air, does get warmer . Pretty sure they got that right. Because that seems really right in their strike zone and repeated and laboratory tests, just in every way, that is solid. Now the question is how quickly and how much does it matter . Scientists as part of their persuasion us is a problem they make these models. Are those models accurate . Well, nobody knows and there are lots of debate and models theres a big range, what happens to the models that didnt work . Do they keep them . Do they throw them away. If you throw away all the ones it did not work this year, exactly like your models work its because youre throwing out the ones who are not working. Theres a little bit of an illusion there. Is it true the temperatures going up at a rate that we should be alarmed at . Probably. Probably the models are at least that good because it can measures the temperature were Getting Better at it, satellites are doing it, so were probably reasonably solid although we dont know how quickly. Then there is the third part, heres where it all t goes to hell. The third part is the economics. To figure out how big of a deal it is, it all comes down to money. If you have to move your beach house that cost money if you lose your job thats money. If your crops fail thats money. When you move into the economics part thats in my domain i used to do financial projection and chant projections. I know they are all bogus. Anyone ever produced produce was no better than a guess. Whats it when it comes to the economic part what kind of reliability should you put on that . Heres a little eyeopener for you. The un said that over 80 years, if things get underway its predicted and that is sort of a bad case scenario. If things go the way its predicted at the end of eight years the un, this is an official prediction, says the gdp could be as much as 10 lower. And im thinking to myself, wow, 10 , thats trillions and trillions of dollars and 10 reduction in our Economy Today would be massively expensive and people would starve to death, be a really big deal. But, i i also have a degree in economics and i know how to look at these things. What i said was hey, it may be years, our gdp will be five to ten times bigger than it is now. If it the end of 80 years, after its gone up, five or ten times, if its 10 less than it could have been, would you notice . You wouldnt. She would not even know the difference. You would think things are ougreat. Fewer people would be in poverty, the food to be cheaper the robots are scratching your back, its going to be a Wonderful World in eight years. See what in the simulation, obviously. Keep in mind that is the uns dire, bad case of its worst case with most likely bad case prediction and we are even better notice it. Until i told you that did you realize that as a complete phony number . The gdp will be so big that little 10 will be trivial . That was inaccurate, probably not because i did financial projections for living. We have no idea with the economics are. Host what company did you work for . Guest they are all out of business thats probably. [inaudible] crocker bank got swallowed up by wells fargo in pacific bell got eaten by verizon. So what do you do about all this given the great uncertainty . Heres the good news there are already several startups building giant scrubbing machines that will literally pull the co2 out of the air several of those cases will turn into products. One of the things is jet fuel its hard to make an electric jet see still need jet fuel. One in plastic send you some other things that which one of those be the winner . Maybe none of them, sort of like the pc industry in the beginning where it was hard in the beginning to know which company would last. But you knew pcs and computers were going to last. So likewise for the co2 scrubbing stuff i dont know if any of these specific startups will last. But it is a thing. Its going to be an industry and is going to be a big deal. Governments will presumably pay a lot forward if they thought there was a danger. You also have nuclear energy. If you are not up on Nuclear Power, let me give you the 62nd thing that you need to know. Your grandfathers Nuclear Power was a little more dangerous than it used to be in the versions of Nuclear Power are all of the meltdowns and problems youve ever heard of. Chernobyl was an earlier version of Nuclear Pride we would never build any of those models today. Today you would know generation three. The number of generation three reactors and there are lots of them in the world, that have a Nuclear Incident is zero. None. Literally the Safest Technology for technology ever created. Every other form of energy is killing people. People are literally falling off roofs installing solar power. Like literally more people have died from the solar power, more people have died putting up a window than died from all the generation three Nuclear Power plants in the world. Heres the better part, theres a generation for coming. Generation four is backed by people like bill gates who put a ton of money into it, its a Company Called terra power. Thats just one of them. One of the things theyre technology can do,. Generation four, as they can eat that Nuclear Waste as its a fuel. It actually reduces Nuclear Waste in the world. You put it next to an old plants and you havent heat all of the Nuclear Waste until it closes. Its built of anything goes wrong, it just turns off. Version you have to feed energy in w it to keep it from melting down. If you lose energy its a catastrophe. The new version as soon as energy goes away the reaction goes away. Those are already designed and theyre already looking for place to build it. They can do it economically, they can make it safe they will reduce the waste if you already had some. [laughter] so the point is you look for Climate Change glad some people are panicked because that gets them to invent things and do things they need to do. But man, we as a population, as a species, we are really good at solving problems receive them coming from far away. I s am not going to worry about it, because i think weve got this handled. There is something to worry about, i am just personally not going to worry about it. [laughter] host on that o optimistic note we want to thank you very much scott adams author of the new book losers think. Copies are available for purchase just outside the room and scott will be taking photos here, onstage are just a few minutes. Please form an orderly line on the left side over there. I am melissa kain on behalf of myself and scott adams, thank you everyone for joining us. B [applause]
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