Of the future of democracy series with Additional Support from the initiative and a cooperative local funders and donors. We are grateful for their support and hope others will follow their examples to support the club. With two experts on a lot of things including we hope the affects of covid19, but its having you continue to have on democracy both here in the u. S. And around the world. James is the National Correspondent for the atlantic interested in the magazine since the late 1970s. The approach to some of the pressing issues facing the world and the authors of the recent bestsellers journey into the heart of america. Thank you so much for being here. Thank you. The foreign and defense studies at the institute and washington, d. C. Shwashington, d. C. Shes had an impressive career and defense policy which has taken her to the International Institute for strategic studies in london, the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and the state Department International security council. Thank you so much for your time. Is a great question. Thanks to you and the audience for joining. If you are watching you can submit them in the tech chat and if you are on facebook you can write them in the comments i will give him as the progress and work them into the conversation. So, i thought we could kind of storage big picture and come back to a little bit later. Can you give us a sense of how you think democracy around the globe is doing today in this crisis . They are generally slow to organize, slow to Decisive Action but they are also Political Science research on this is quite strong democracies are more enduring. They had to enforce the lockdown when the crisis was raging into the unwillingness of the government has shared information about the experiences in the way that would have helped other countries better prepare for when the virus spread. Compare that to south korea and japan where you have broad public voluntary compliance with what the government wants to do and over longer periods of time is longer to be sustained. So it is not the only thing going on here. The quality that we see in some societies compared to others, for example the catastrophic failure of the American Government at the federal level to organize, prepare and bring the authorities to bear, it isnt a barrier of the government type. Othegovernments type. Other democracies, germany, new zealand, finland are doing gre great. Do you feel like this is challenging in many ways or do you agree that the we are better prepared in many ways because of that trust you may not have any place like china or iran . One of the lessons of my life as a reporter if the contradictory things since we are talking about democracy in the times of stress to recognize the importance of the Commonwealth Club and what it stands for and what it does. We come from different political traditions but the way they are trying to hold todays governments to the classic standards is really important, and i just want to make sure the notes that. I mean it. Let me talk about two countries in particular, one of china and one about the u. S. And just in a complementary sense. In china its impressive how it shows the fragility and some of its strength. China has controlled the level of infection Something Like they are currently claiming although the idea that its stopped is hard to imagine that will stand up. The reports i get there is a sense of solidarity and pride that has come through the way in which they were ravaged by this early this year and have gotten a somewhasomewhat under controla terrible price to domestically and internationally so the contradiction but it struck me the National Government has failed about as dramatically as it possibly could and one of the themes we have been making in the last year or so i and some sessions waited on the Commonwealth Club is in this moment of chronic weakness and failure and paralysis of the National Government, we have city governments and regional coalitions still hoping the america we like to think exists. Regardless of the parties, the religious organizations most of them commit regional context have emerged to reflect the way we would like the u. S. To respond. That has been striking into something i hope that we can build on for the democratic future. I know thats something you have been thinking about prior to this crisis. We know and trust the people closest to us often. I want to stick for a moment with this and ask about the balance between Civil Liberties and the effective response. Thinking about south korea or singapore. They have much more aggressive tactics in terms of tracking people and ensuring that the citizens are doing what they need to and we are far behind on a lot of areas but i want to get your thoughts like how you are thinking about that and if we are striking the right ones here in the United States. I think nobodys looking back from the future towards this moment in history is going to be satisfied or pleased about many things the u. S. Is going to strike the balance and i think were feeling our way towards that significantly region by region. That is the most heartening development both on the west coast and new england into the regional compact is coming together. I think that there will be some feeling towards the balance. Its important i lived on the peninsula for several years to recognize the questions both of scale it is a city state expert of los angeles with the city of San Francisco with a long tradition they sort of recognized. They have authoritarianism in the recent past and the u. S. H has. We can admire the tactics theyve used and im sure i think any of us if we were having the discussion would have been astonished to think the mayors of San Francisco and chicago and los angeles and later new york imposing what we think of as strict requirements keeping with the cities. One of the tasks is evolving towards the acceptable balance of damage that is profound. The privacy interests that we all have a hand the publichealth interests we also have. Ive been reading again the plague which i guess i would distribute that along with a test kit around the country. These are longterm questions. What do you think of this come is this a moment worth giving up on our Civil Liberties to ensure the ability for the economic and Public Health recoveries which are really sort of handinhand together or do we need to be cautious thinking about things like contract and the qr codes that they are using in china to let people travel. You can see the publichealth benefits of those things but it seems like i wouldnt expect if we give up something we should expect to get it back in six months. I also think you should never have a strategy if it is a National Security strategy or publichealth strategy that goes against for you are in a political culture. We are not singapore, we are a country full of people who deeply distrust our own government and often with good reason. If you look at the way information surreptitiously gathered by Police Forces used for purposes nobody can put it to. That open societies are good at and the United States is exceptionally good at is viewing these things through and balancing rather than to compromise or publichealth. We are going to have a big discussion about some good thoughtful interest. The university of Texas Law School professor has a terrific piece about how to get a balance that permits protecting the common good in the pandemic without the compromise. We need to have an argument about where the tradeoffs are going to be and what risks we refer to run but that is what we are good at. An important point about the tradeoff now is if we try to make it a more draconian control in the past month it wouldnt have done any good because we didnt have any tests. So they had a very elaborate contact they were testing basically everybody. Its an argument if you have been in the last month i wouldnt have done any good. The other thing i want to say is we do have a realtime experiment going on around the country tennessee and kentucky very similar statewide policies. New york versus San Francisco and next week, next month we will know more about what is working out. I want to get your input on what could be the sort of longterm geopolitical outcome of this because as we are grappling with people with Vladimir Putin looking at china and russia. Ive been surprised to be adversaries havent been aggressive to use a moment not just the internal focus but this is the first time in 75 years theres been a Major International crisis its in support of the objectives to slow resources and figured out a way to cooperate so one of the enormous risks isnt that our adversaries are being critics. Quite the contrary if you look at the way the government has tried to propagandize it is largely reminding us how untrustworthy it is but the United States is looking at something everyone expected the United States to take responsibility for and everybody including us is better off when we do that. It is much more chaotic and dangerous, much more deadly and costly. The second consequence i think we are seeing is the monetary union. Everyone is waiting for germany which had been one of the main beneficiaries to relax about the deficit spending and amortizing the risk across the economies. The effort would fragment into the Third International consequence is so far only the great power the wealthy states have been hit by this. The countries that travel in large numbers but when this migrates to those that do not have the publichealth system this is good to be a disaster we are not doing enough to help prepare and its not just about their welfare and interest that we can actually protect ourselves against this. They have a vested interest helping raise the standard everywhere with. The i know you talked about this at the same time weve pulled back from the rest of the world and we now have to go to them and ask for help because they dont have the systems in place it seems the opposite of what people have worried chumps like you in a moment like this. The distinction between the personal authoritarianism and the governmental effectiveness. A very strong willed and strongarmed theater it was during the era but it is highminded and effective towards the public good in this case the Current Administration where the u. S. Seems to be as opposed to any public benefit. I would suggest these different timelines affecting the way which the United States and traditional leaders are able to respond. They are setting up some kind of an example right now and they are themselves really wallowing. The u. S. Has up his crisis. Germany and france are struggling almost as much as italy. Sweden and its role has its own problems. The only political spaces to say listen to us because we have done this right it is one that is obviously limited so you have the traditional usual suspects. Theres the media and term in the summer or fall as we have written a now calling a member of bay area to say what have you done for us lately and why should we be helping you when you have just been kind of trotting all over us. Then theres the time after this fall in my view to ratify the America First policy. Nobody is in the position to say the. The United States has been in negotiations about the cost of sharing for the 35,000 or so american troops that are stationed out of south korea and on the very day President Trump wrote asking them to ship medical equipment because he was also demanding a fivefold increase it was making them less militarily capable and crummy allies. If i can make another point in answer to the question, it has been a surprise to me its the ability to work the machinery and it has been genuinely astonishing to me that the President Trump and those that have been so ruthlessly finding ways to get around the norm and even in some instances constitutional redlines of the behavior they found that creativity to using an imperial presidency to protect the lives of americans and i just dont get it. I want to note as we have been talking here the president has announced he is suspending funding for the world health organization. I bit my tongue before responding. Corey was talking about the way in which an administration i will circle back around. Through to my mind the most important essay ther theres ont cannot 110 years ago and i mentioned i was at the Commonwealth Club with my wife anlifeand this is called the equivalent of the war and the argument was looking back on the civil war it was the most horrible episode in American History. More lives lost than any other and all the rest of the wars combined and get William James said the personal courage, descendents of the greater good, the political leadership, the better parts of human character and the american ideals. So, William James said the struggle for the society like the United States was to find a moral equivalent and through the history since that time its been a people able to say yes we will pull together are often its been publichealth challenges. When i was a little kid it was the time of the polio vaccine and there was the sense that you have to stay home and not go swimming because you have to endure dork on personal freedom for the greater good and theres other times publichealth has been the moral equivalent of the war and thats something we will see here. If we think theres a greater good we are serving, thats part of the american tradition that it connects to. I want to take a practical position on this part. But International Institution it gives the ability to understand problems before americans start dying from them and the centers for Disease Control used to up until a year ago fund the position in spite of the chinese Governmental Health network and that is an extraordinarily good use of tax dollars because that person knew what was happening no matter what the Chinese Communist government said. They have the kind of relationships where they have the direct connection back to the cdc the activist International Get it. But the president has done it his back away from them. These organizations will be more useful to the adversaries. Its not just on the world stage. Weve seen this administration you could argue. Its the brokenness of the federal system and the trust. Isnt it an argument for the system. Look at ohio and how far theyve taken things. It is striking the most aggressive early on, Charlie Baker in massachusetts has matched illinois and jay inslee in Washington State and others. So one of the points that he made or whatever struck by so much the political alignment matters that they have to run the state and community so it is the balance between the national and local. Number two, and the current disastrous failure not all of them that so many. We spend time and the mayor of sioux falls but i a very conservative republican behaving like others right now. Between the responsible mayor yes it is a blessing so many are responding and number three there are jobs for the federal government and they should start doing them. It seemed at the beginning the president was more focused on the economy. Its how they reopen and plan and one question from an audience member its timely and effective and thats the difference that we have seen. They dont want to criticize him. How are you thinking about that i agree it is a statutory constraint they have a terrific book just out. I share the worry and it is coming as a sharp relief the president cant resist the temptation to act like a drifter in this circumstance it strikes me as bad politics and the perfect i if our fellow americas are going to say thats okay, then weve become a very different country than the one that expects its chief executive to be nonpartisan in the crisis and to step forward and have a plan and empower positive action and that is not what we are seeing President Trump do you. Its having a realworld effects on peoples lives and the economy. You they go up and down a little bit and i just wonder does anything give to talk electoral politica littlepolitics for a se extent any of the physics and history apply to the current time each one since the civil war the losing candidate has always gotten at least 40 . Herbert hoover, terry goldwater. There is the fact 35 to 40 of the public is reliably with you and it doesnt necessarily mean youre going to win. That is just one factor. Its been above the mid60s in the Approval Rating. I worked for jimmy carter long ago when the Approval Rating was 69 or 70 . Barack obama was the low 70s. Each george bush was about 90 at some point because of the wartime and bill clinton was in the 70s. By the laws of physics this isnt a strong hand going into the race because things were so surprising. The president in times of crisis represent the interest of the public and state governors represent the interests of their people regardless of their political affiliation. You can see some governors who you know do not agree with donald trump. Governor cuomo did in new york and governor inslee in washington, they dont agree on anything and they require them to behave the way that leaders are supposed to behave in ways people propitiate trump. We wont even talk about this for months you bring them up. I was going to do actually. You know, i dont know if you caught yesterdays briefing. It is over a press briefing. Im curious they think americans should at this point be tuning out the briefings because the headlines we are getting elsewhere so how do you take an approach to this and think about how to call your own exposure to the media which is overwhelming right now. I do think people should watch the briefing so that they can judge whether it is providing information the public needs for safety and whether they are comfortable improving public safety. I personally am shocked he is violating the behavior of as politicizing. What it seems to me would be better used for helping people understand the nature of the problem and how to make this okay. The fact that the president isnt doing that is something that should weigh heavily on our judgments as we choose our political leaders. Dudes you foresee any shift in the power structure . This could tend to shift as we well. That is an interesting challenge. Im skeptical it will result in between states and the federal government. I do think it will have longterm consequences reminding us to have to b be good chief e. Very many politicians dont have to. Running a senate staff is in the best for the government but a state with the magnitude of washington or california, but also, talking about the Approval Ratings i want to shift forward because it is a free and Fair Election and so in these times you have to rise above the noise. Can you tell me how things played out and concerns. They say senators have to give speeches and take positions and governors actually have to manage and one more model hes taking speeches, holding rallies, taking positions as opposed to managing things which weve had. The Current Situation which i have only seen from a distance i think the outcome is significant to have this resounding victory for the Supreme Court there in the face of the latest incident in American History which is. Whether it is jim crow after the civil war, its always been contested and whatever party tries to limit it is worth taking seriously both the mechanics of voting this fall. The unusual conditions of the virus is focusing peoples attention and the democrats have agreed on a nominee historically early in the cycle. But again it can try to start working on the turnout and franchise issues. Republicans would lose. Representative Kevin Mccarthy accused Speaker Pelosi of disgusting politics to try to put money into a bill at this time to push broader votes by mail. I found it interesting to see historically more rural, conservative, what do you think about the system and what should happen this year . I believe every american citizen should have the ability to boot an exercise that franchise and if you dont, you are voting for whoever when the concern about the ability of the intelligence agencies to be able to reach into electronic Voting Systems for the reasons that dont have anything to do the domestic american politics we ought to have a manual backup and vote by mail provides a good way to have a manual backup. For people who are mobility challenged and are in this crazy dangerous time communal compromising the ability to vote without leaving their home was an important fairness issue. Why has it become given everything you just spoke about and what i said to. I think any effort to restrict voting always comes from a place of insecurity that you are not going to be able to win the argument. What do you think should be happening now . As you noted, it feels far away but when i talked to the registrars and the secretaries of state they say if we are going to make an investment it does need to happen now. We know they would likely pass a bill because much mcconnell has blocked the efforts but its not likely to come from the federal government. I agree that their reasons for being on the wrong side of history from the National Republican party to all the studies on the party wer where e dont attract younger people back to the federalist system i am not an expert on the Voting System so im not sure i could offer advice on what we should do. I would have one comment now on this point about the study and what i noted in the young people its not that they are not winnable principles. They think that they are not honoring them. We have to actually do the right principled conservative thing and thats how you attract the voters in i believe there is enormous appeal. For some reason, people who like to think of themselves as conservatives are not the same that in my view. Do hav you have concerns abot what happened in wisconsin and there is a question of the virus and whether people feel safe and therethere is the psychological impact even beyond so that is a concern right now. It is a concern and has always been. Ive been around for a lot of them now. Its always a question of which one will be able to turn out. They will face more practical obstacles to the rules that have changed in so many states that there is a a more concerted enthusiasm now. When barack obama was running their business enthusiasm and i think there will be. The emotion behind the turnout. We like to have about 65 and initiatives. Its the opposite of coattails or local candidates. Its a challenge if you are not an incumbent how do you do that. Its not so much that i have concerns. Im excited to see the creativity. The best article ever written about American Foreign policy was in the atlantic in 2009. I cant remember the name of the article, but the subject was looking through the eyes of someone that had been. We averted our eyes. Japan and the 1970s what americans are really good at is fueling like we are building a better mouse trap and thats the way to get your money on the United States. We are going to see that and ask the people that are trying to get elected start experimenting. I think we all go back and forth. On the one hand its like this is awful. They are still in this crisis and therand their people losingy members every day but i want to start first. Thanks to the gracious reference. Until the last minute the title was is america going to hell and then there was a failure of nerve. What im optimistic about in these challenging times we are about to face a having him and forced. Muscles memory of the different ways of coping being developed and ways they have a different sense of how people are actually tied together
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