For more than a century they had been collecting knowledge and generating ideas that support freedom and condition. They are profoundly impacted. We are excited to be able to connect virtually for you. These policy briefings are an opportunity for you to hear directly from some of our nations top scholars on the pressing issues facing the world during this difficult time. As we confront the challenge. Conversations like this have never been more important. As a reminder we will be taking audience questions and we encourage you to submit years. Cap in your question and we will try to get to it towards the end of the broadcast. It is focused the classics in military history. He has written or edited 24 books. With the bradley prize. Price. You are a better man than i. I would have it hanging around my neck 247. How are you today . Very good thank you for having me. I think before we get into the policy side of things. A lot of us are watching this from Population Centers around the globe. Where we know the difference that has occurred in the past couple of weeks. You are coming to us from a family farm. Right now about 15 miles outside of fresno i think. What difference do you note in agricultural humidity in this kind of situation. I think there is a sense that life can go on and will go on because is that its that production side. When im looking out here and looking down at a great vineyard. Or icy trucks going by constantly headed towards the coast or even in the east coast with chickens and eggs and beef there is a sense that agriculture is really important and people are looking to it to make sure that food is delivered to people who are sheltered at home. That theres not a great danger because of population density and as i said Fresno County is a big county it has over a Million People 1. 2 million. But weve only have a little over a hundred cases. The other Rural Counties that i live near kings county, they have far fewer cases per million residents in far fewer fatalities. Its not that feeling of being embattled that we have at Samford University before the shutdown. Victor, here we are in the year 2020 over half of americans have been told to stay at home businesses had been told by Government People have been told to keep their distance from each other. And there is no foreseeable end to this. Maybe the end of april, june, july. Heres what im curious about. If you go back and look at a virus that struck the United States. We could use a politically the economy did not shut down in 1957 when we went through that strain. Congress did not do massive spending bills. Why would we do things differently in 2020 as opposed to 60 years ago in and a century ago. We are much more technologically significant. We do it because we can do it. The way that we are communicating over the internet right now. People want instant information. We all feel like we are to die in our late 70s or 80s. That was a much more tragic society it would kill about 50 Million People. The United States would lose about 120,000 almost half of them to the flu. That was considered a part of the tragic existence and they did not had control over their medical or their hygienic or their economic circumstances to the degree that they feel like they do today. It was also a more tragic than Therapeutic Society they were used for more they talk about the 1918 flu. They quarantine themselves out here. They were completely selfsufficient. They did not go very many places. There was no not very many places to go. I remember the stories of my aunt who went out who went out to swim once she got polio and ended up over here in the corner crippled for the rest of her life. She died in the 1980s. I can remember the 1957 flow for five years old. We have a humidifier and we were all told to breed this air breathe this air so that we wouldnt die. We thought penicillin was a miracle drug. We would have doc nelson. We rolled up our sleep. He gave us a shot. I dont know if it helped with the virus. Actually no it didnt. We felt like penicillin was still a magic drug. The days just kind of come one after another in the situation. I get up in the morning and i have breakfast. Each date seems to be a continuation of the past. You are a historian. You have looked at societies and youre looking at the question of discipline in the society. Is there any motto we should be looking at for how long the country especially one that values civil liberty and how long they can go on like this. When we been in similar situations world war ii do you remember that the japanese internment. That came from liberal minded leaders like earl warren and fdr. They later regretted it but at the time it ripped the nation. We look back fondly at the productive history of world war ii. That was not a sustainable situation to have that much of your gdp to military production. I can tell you if this thing continues the way it has been charted by some of the modelers. It will not just be economic you are arty starting to see even out here social breakdowns i can tell you within my circumference there are people who are opening illegal barbershops out in a barn illegal Daycare Center right down the street. There are campaigns that are supposed to have takeout food. Theyre serving food with people sitting down. I talked with a lot of people with a lot of different varieties of life and their attitude is like the 1950s life was okay it wasnt great but imac and im back in a destroyed my childrens livelihood on the basis that some edict, i will navigate around it. There are people that when you go to that store here. A persons told one paper towel and one hand cleanser. If i dont if i allow them to do that they at least let me charge them. And i can get the money from them. They will just walk out with too. Its a minor misdemeanor that will not be prosecuted. There is also a frame of the society that because we are such a diverse country and we have the same diversity as europe does. South dakota is not louisiana. New york is not north dakota or south dakota we need to be a little bit more flexible with all of the states if not the counties to be a little bit more liberal in a way that they adjudicate the perceived danger to their subset population. You mentioned models. The university of washington has been doing this. It is now suggesting that we will hit a peak mortality number the sunday which is good news. It means that we are coming to the hump in this thing when we will go downhill after this. There are one or two ways to look at that. Either they can look at the glass halffull we behaved we kept our distance and we are keeping this thing under control or people can look at us and this and say here is another example if you want to use the phrase fake news. They told us this would happen. Which of these things are going to prevail. I hope it is the halffull. There is a logic to the shutdown. If youre shut down and at least some of the population is getting paid and you feel like this is a sustainable proposition and youre not aware of the effects on other people. The numbers had to be increasingly more optimistic. Not 2. 5 but 1 or half a or your neck in a go out until its 99. 8 the net becomes a allergic of its own. What im worried about is we have to realize it is not a die comedy is between lives and lives. We will lose a lot of lives to suicide and Substance Abuse if we dont allow flexibility and people to go out. As far as the modeling goes this is the first epidemic as a historian that i can think of when the modelers have no Accurate Information whatsoever about the denominator and the number of people who actually had it. That is only based on those who are ill or feel like they are exposed and took the effort to go get tested. That is attend of the actual case numbers. Is very important because the net adjudicates the rate for caseload and then people will say it started out 1 and now its 2. 5 percent. Its bound to go down when we have more data. Even the number of people who are dying is subject to interpretation. There is so much uncertainty and that is reflected in the inability date of the modelers to be correct. We wont have to. 2 Million People died dash mike die. I dont think that washington modelers would want to go back to their initial data. I dont think by the end of this month 25 million californians well have a case of covid19. That would include dash mike imply a million are going to die. They shouldve said on march 12 that he thought hundred thousand people have an active case when in fact there were about 100 who had tested positive maybe 500 that may have have it. It was doubling every six days based on the Health Director modeling. And it would give us today 24 days later at 1. 6 million ohioans and probably 40,000 dead. As i look at the statistics yesterday they have a little over 100 dead and about 5,000 cases. There is a downside to modeling. We have to be careful when you make a model is not just a construct. So far im afraid the media has suggested that the consequences are always good. They warn us of what could happen and therefore we get a little hysterical and take the necessary measures. If i have not had done it he would not have taken these measures. If hes right and its sort of a grim person who was accurate. Its a lose lose situation. If they are exaggerating. Everyone said yeah. It was only because of the pessimists that they change the behavior. And if he is around given life and death. The optimist you are a murder because you said it wouldnt be this mini dead. Because of you people were not cautious. If to keep in mind the psychological landscape that these models are given. There are consequences when someone tells western governments the 2. 2 million governments are likely to die. They didnt do it at the larger point. Im not saying they didnt have the statistical non knowledge to make this. They did not have confidence that they were allknowing and they didnt had computers and things like that. They were much more humble about their own data. And the ramifications for public policy. This is the hoover institution. We are with victor davis hanson. Rahm emanuel of the former mayor of chicago and bill clintons chief of staff said never let a crisis go to race. You been watching government and what is going on in congress and what california has been doing statewide and locally tell us what government has done well in terms of this crisis but what would alarming in a alarm you in the way of civil liberties. Would you be concerned that a state like rhode island which is very upset that new yorkers are driving through it. Could be see a situation i think were in a crocs right now. We reacted as we did after pearl harbor to a very difficult situation in which the Chinese Communist government lied about the nature of the birth of the virus. The transmission rate of the virus. Those untruths were echoed by the world World Health Organization. When we have to travel down january 30, 2001 the World Health Organization and the Chinese Government said its unnecessary. Given all of that and given the acrimony and the cdc test kits didnt work. People worked told to wear masks and not to wear masks. We are getting to a point where there is starting to emerge a consensus that what we are doing now has reduced the infectiousness but where we are at a crocs is this is not a sustainable situation morgan had to either head regional choice that people can modify where we have to realize that if we dont get these antibody tests have no idea the three of immunity. We will just go out and then we will start the infectious process again. We will be able to justify the six or 7 trilliondollar hit in the economy i guess on the rationale that they gave us a reading time. We have the medical systems in tact. For the second or third or fourth wave. Each time we had sheltered in space and then we dont get out dont develop herd mentality then it will go again. The only rationale i can see being given is that we are buying time for in a jokes or vaccinations. Its not a sustainable situation. The cost to economy and human lives well eventually i think days rather than months persuade people that we dont have a choice. To gradually be careful. Dont go to a sports event maybe but otherwise you have to get back to work. If you want to look more about his research please go to our website lets take some audience questions. Lets begin with kevin m. Who writes to victor. Given the interpretation in a war with the same historical rule will apply now. I think you are in 1919 or 1946 or even after the war. There is a lot of research that i did early on in my career that shows all the pessimistic appraisals i think the answer is people feel like they survived something. And they had been starved for social action than they indulge their appetites. And grief beyond what they did before the crisis. And then they can argue whether that makes up for the lull or not. There are also some auxiliary criteria we should examine. We are reaching a point where were can have a record low fuel prices so driving and getting in a plane would be very cheap in a way that its never been. We have almost zero interest rate. We are making a vast reach distribution of money when they used it two or three or 4 on their funds. Its can be given to people who borrow money by zero interest. But whatever view you take of it. It would be an economic stimulus. I guess the logic of the government has been we would live lose liquidity both through the stock market and lost gdp. Therefore if i could be so crude the end result is the kind of money. They infuse cash into the system. They claim it will not be inflationary. They are replacing temporary lost capital. There can be stimuli after this crisis. I think we will really accelerate it. And then whats really important. Is what was a situation before the crisis. World war ii there were a lot of people that said you know what we have a second recession on 38 and 39 where we had 60 unemployment. Its can be like that again. And they were very worried. In our case we ran into this by creating 7 million jobs and when we used the 7 million jobs. We are back to the stratus we have a strong economy. And that will be important. You can outsource labor to china and they were going to produce quality merchandise in a manner that was consistent with the world knowns in tile entry protocol. When they did not do that with dog food or drywall or pharmaceuticals and people said that was an abuse or an aberration but it did not endanger the paradigm and then there was then that said they could outsource the pharmaceutical industry to china because the literature becomes it will become more liberalized, we have 360,000 students in the United States, we have 20000 people flying in per day, they are becoming liberalized and someday shanghai and beijing will look like paris and san francisco, thats inevitable. They will be democratic and liberal minded, that will not happen in the reputation of china was destroyed and now the general global perception, when is the next wuhan virus coronavirus not two or three coming out of wuhan and will will get nine, ten hours to san francisco, los angeles paris, they lost their International Credibility because they lied about every aspect with the virus, they contaminated the World Health Organization and its lost its credibility and i dont think it is going to be a sustainable proposition for an American Company to produce ampicillin only in china, i think it will have condensation that its not national or patriotic and those will not be dirty words like they were in the past. I think things will change, i think thats why the chinese are so worried and that there engaged in the Propaganda Campaign and they whether the virus better than anybody in helping other countries because their International Reputation is at rock bottom. Edward writes the pandemic has changed our relationship with treaties with other nations meaning are they redefined with new partners or changing partners. Obviously people are starting to look at things in a different way and one is taiwan, they always thought, lets not talk about taiwan, we know the democratic and play by the rules but they are small and they endanger our relationship with the rich and growing 1. 4 billion person china, now we look at it and say they played by all the rules, they were transparent, they protected the population, they allowed people to voice dissension, their model of what china shouldve been and why in the world we have to feel guilty about our support for taiwan, i think the same is true of japan and south korea and i see a lot of those countries being far more afraid than they were before the crisis of china and far more amenable to a closer relationship with the United States, in terms of europe it is a little bit more problematic because we were lectured that european under the guidelines was a model almost as if the model in the west would be a Transnational Organization that lends on Solar Wind Power and relies on soft power and has no borders, the shanghai agreement, within a nanosecond in the early crisis, the border closed and for a while germany and other countries in the north were not willing to send medical supplies to the south, we had it creed were cut a country where people were dying with no money, could not get money and people that had money were not dying as much. And when you add all that together with the preexisting in that year, the northsouth financial crisis with spain and italy and greece, the east west over immigration over european countries, brexit and the fight that many nato countries had with us over funding of the alliance, i think the eu is taking a big hit, i dont know who you call with the birthplace of henry kinzinger, do you call the president of the eu and disease before italy or greece, disease before germany, they have not sorted that out. I think theres going to be a lot of pressure on that you to revert more to a model of the original European Common Market to stop trade barriers, encourage free trade within european nations that dont have an eu grandy and strasburg trying to tell a person how many inches of banana has to be to be a banana. That type of Center Control is discredited. Cory has a question for you, hello doctor hansen, do you think this will create a generational similar to the golden generation, will the crisis affect the toughness of our current generation. We talk about the greatest generation and we characterize that by two seminal experiences, they went through a depression from 1929 to 1939, that was a decade and then they fought a war that cost the worm 70 Million People and almost 500,000 americans. I dont see this crisis lasting as long as those two crises are taken as much life from a smaller population, what i do think it will do is give a dose of reality to the average american in the sense, there is an expert essential fact of life that when you get up in the morning, whether you live the next day depends on the food that you get, the water that you drink, the sewage that is disposed in the fuel that warms your heart and soul, right now what hes pouring to you is not Michael Bloomberg financing chinese companies, half of whom were communist to get the western liquidity for them to be viable and to get a big cut out of it intellectual rest that china is a conceptual society and farmers dont have enough way matter in the technical skill of people like myself. That is irrelevant right now, that is less than irrelevant, is dangerous given that naivety of the thinking that empowers the chinese, what we want our people to know to drop something in the ground like Michael Bloomberg said was easy and did not take very moderate it takes a lot of great matter, whether you eat tomorrow in manhattan depends on somebody over here in hanford getting the crop to market and a trucker from bakersfield driving all night and then a stock boy in manhattan working at the supermarket, i think there will be a much greater respect and honor for the labor and people that we felt were the losers of globalization, they did not understand that there was a global market, i think we will see if you want a ventilator or if you want a pharmaceutical or if you want a head of lettuce, you will rely on american that maybe you did not think was important to the Global Economy you thought the Global Economy was everything when it turned out when you look at the Global Economy whether it was the eu model or the World Health Organization help or chinas it was not too good and was the guy driving all night on the interstate and the guy out there working on a potato harvest or for the young kid willing to going to the Grocery Store and stand there with a thousand customers every day and be exposed in theory and sell you things, i think that will be very positive. I would like to remind the audience, Richard David hansen has written a lot of remarkable books, one of which was published in 2017 called the second world war, the first world conflict that was fought in one, i manage that because it ties into the next question which comes from kevin, can you draw a comparison into the dark days of world war ii in terms of combat and how the leaders did a better job of communicating with the public about the sacrifices required then and now and how we can better carryon today. I think so, the secret to roosevelt success is he had the gift that attributed and they call it paranoia foresight, he wakes up and hes told mr. Roosevelt 0 is a much better plane than anything that we have, its better than the wildcat and better than the p4 to, by the way torpedoes are substandard, by the way they have more carriers in the pacific then we do and by the way theyre just about ready to take over all of the european colonies whether its indonesia, liberty taken over Southeast Asia and mill picked singapore, we cannot see the philippines and roosevelt was able to say yes but this is what the United States was capable in world war i, we took 2 Million People in a yeaa year end a half and landed them in france without losing one in the middle of a world epidemic and we eventually produced Mormon Mission then our allies put together france and britain, we can do that again and this will be an answer for the unused capacity, he knew that and he was able to nurse us along and say this is what were going to do and then midway he never said midway was the end of the war, he said its the end of the beginning and then theres going to be more and more setbacks but as we proceed were on a learning curve, we have more assets, what a strange country that we are fighting in 1939 40 whether we can build like the wasp or the hornet that is about 15 19000 tons and suddenly we wake up in 42 and say by the way were producing 27 carriers, each 130 bigger than the wasp and will pay for it. And everybody says how will we pay for it and we say everybody were sheltered at home during the depression and now theyre working 20 hours a day in creating real wealth and will build 1b20 for every hour and by the way we will invent a new b29 that has 50000 new parts in the cockpit alone, just a different attitude, the confidence, i think thats what we have to do after we get used to the virus in what we done it will be time to go out and conquer, and really amazed all these people that we thought had lost the american spirit are experimenting the ventilators, experimenting with drugs, or in a complication to see which one to get the vaccination first, it is starting to happen like that and its Pretty Amazing and i just went down to a market and i was talking to a guy and i said how long have you been here and i said it been six hours and i said oh you can be done and i said no i have eight more hours. And i said are you going to get the virus and he said i dont know, theyre gonna put up a plastic barrier tomorrow, this is 90 days into it and rather than damning everybody, he is a had a plastic barrier, hes looking forward to it, theres a lot of people who still have the spirit from the generation. We have a question from donna who writes huge fan for starters dbh, i live in california, considering the homelessness in california et cetera why is california not ended up like new york, i heard there was immunity that we probably have it sensible, is this possible. Thats a very good question in here at Stanford University a number of epidemiologist are trying to figure that out because it does not make sense because we have half of the nations homeless, about 150 180000 homeless, we are one third of all of the nations people in public assistance in every three californians who submitted to a hospital has diabetes or prediabetes which is a risk factor of covid19 we have the lowest number and 100,000 populations, the lowest number of doctors and the lowest number of beds in the nation with 28 were not born in the United States, you put all that together and people look to california and said it is not in a situation to resist an epidemic and more importantly lax, san diego, san jose have the direct flights from china and bringing in five, six, 7000 a day up to 15 20000 entering the United States, 23 direct flights in this. From sfo alone to and from wuhan so people thought wow its going to be terrible, gavin newsom three weeks ago said 25 Million People are going to have the virus and that would mean 1 million dead, were a little bit halfway over his prediction, i dont think will have 25 million, we have about 17000 known cases and probably 17 170,000. Everybody wants to know what happened, was it california warmer, know the south is warmer this time of the year and they are suffering, is it because were less dense than new york, maybe but why were we have twice the population in one tenth the death toll or one 20th or one 30th of the caseload and a lot of people thought wait a minute lets look at this a different way, maybe that flu that he got in the flu that she got in november may be november, december and january and february that we were exposed to the first wave and while we did not get herd immunity, we got a lot of people, maybe ten or 15 of the population got the flu that they said was not influenza a and flu shots did not work on it and it might not have been the flu, we were told we had 16 outbreaks of influenza even though the cdc did not test very many of them, all we were told that those that did get tested was not influenza a, and might even be, what im getting at desperate for explanation of the inextricable and for those to say we have shelter in place but the day the governor enacted got within two days i think ten other states and then within three days new york did it, i think it was helpful but i dont think that explains it california. On. We dont know what the answer is, hopefully with the new Antibody Testing from the stanford doctors will know very quickly. Kenneth wants you to break out your crystal ball, what effect will this crisis have on the november election both president and congress, let me add that might be an interesting angle, how does trump now have to calibrate his message but also joe biden because you look at the history of challengers who knock off income nets, you dont get the job by saying couldnt what i should do, they have to offer agendas of their own, how do you think this affected the election. Whether we like it or not, this virus has been weapon iced and by that i mean every decision was massaged or modulated in the media either for or against trump, the hard left sees it in the manner increasingly it will do what Robert Mueller and impeachment did not in other words it will show the world what they have been claiming all along that the economy, his only signature issue that they feel will crash and then they will win. In the right says this was an expositional threat but is probably not the exponential threat that killed 116 in 1957, maybe not even 2017 that killed 60000, we can handle it, we gotta get back quicker in the economy will recover in time for the election, whether we like to admit that, thats what it is. And that colors almost everything that the person says so i never thought we would get to the level of politicalization when a president says the antimalarial drug seems to work and we have antidotal evidence in the cdc is taken as seriously and they will test and that becomes either trump was inspired and save lives or trump was a quack, doctor trump will kill people, thats the level of political discourse that we descended to and joe biden, i think he thought it seemed logical that he had moments on the campaign trail, he did well against Bernie Sanders in the last debate people thought joe will go back to his home, home arrest, he 77 and then he will do a chat to the rambunctious trump in his sobriety will impress people, will he started off teleprompter and then hawking many trade both in the neither worked. So he did not provide at least in tempo and assurance in antidote to trump but more importantly he started with a false premise that trump had rejected all the medical advice, antiscientist just like he doesnt believe in global warming, hell do the same thing but actually trump has accepted almost all of the recommendations from science and outputs biden an untenable situation to disagree with trump but by extension hes disagreeing with science, give you one example, trump issues the travel beyond on generate 31st against all of the suggestions of china, the World Community and World Health Organization and some of his own advisors like Anthony Fauci had switched, he does that, immediately biden feels that he did that, have to be against it, so he says what is referring to and then all of a sudden it works, it stops the 20000 from coming in the next day trump has a ban against africa because they were having connecting flights ten days later europe connecting flights, biden mumbles, cant have a either in the knees in a dilemma, hadaway explained what i criticize something that i now endorse, immensity use the word chinese virus, thats what i meant, you did not mean that. So now hes saying i wouldve done earlier so what does that mean, the President Biden wouldve said i dont want to be jenna phobic and racist so i want to stop everybody coming in on january 10 but i wont call the chinese, it gets into the fantastical and surreal what he needs to do is be in pickle i said i would do the same thing, in the long run in every single thing that trump does in the same thing about criticizing biden, he loses his train of thought, his structure but sometimes hes very clear and some people cannot say hes demented, they can say he has bouts of it and they seem to be increasing but you dont want to say he cant string together sentence because sometimes you can coming have to be empirical in all these things because he can. We have one last question that comes from timothy, i am reading your book like no other and you speak to have the opinion of the pullback from defending their farmland in response to the attacking spartans, strategy to write out the work, that appear to be an unsustainable strategy, how do we convince americans to response to covid19 that cant rely on government handouts longterm, while trying to restart the economy. Very good point, i think the questioners worry that were creating a culture that we did not intend and that the longer that americans are sheltered at home in the longer we have some compensation we will lose the causeandeffect relationship that you go out and work and that creates capital and money and when you stay home you are not creating good and services, you and the country at large are impoverished and you cannot just. Money, you create a culture and you get a fear of the virus, what you want is a sense of defiance, you will say as soon as we get the Antibody Testing we will see if the dam virus does not kill three out of every hundred, probably kills one or two every thousand, thick like the flu then dammit we went through 2009, 2017 flu, grandparents and her parents survived 57 and thats what we will do and you know what with a cheap gas and interest will not go out and get back into it, thats the attitude you have to have, im worried that the longer that we get into this attitude the more complacent we become in the last in timid and frightened we become, you can start to see it, when i start to see certain areas that i go out to people even though the race of death have not met the modelers expectation, people are becoming more pessimistic because the media focuses on the young man who is 22 years old and suddenly died in three days rather than the person that was much more typical 86 and had congestive Heart Failure and diabetes. Loud as this terrifying exception in its sensationalized in the way that the normal tragic caseload is not so i think we have to be that way. We have to let counties and states adapt as you mentioned, that will create confidence and optimism, with a governor or a bold county board say we will be hygienic, social distancing, were gonna go out and work and others will follow suit and have a chain reaction. Ive enjoyed this conversation, i meant certain the audience has as well, this is your policy briefing was only appropriate that you get the final word. All i can say is we have all been here before, we dealt with the 57, we dealt with the 2009, we dealt with the 201718, i know that the experts tell us that the coronavirus is different because it has the potential to be much more infectious and much more lethal but were not the same people we were in 2009 or 17, we proceeded a geometric rate as well and were better connected, we have better information, we have more medical protocol with the worldwide nobel prize race to find not just a vaccination but an effective antidote and i think geometrically were Getting Better than the virus and we should be confident about that. Thank you so much for great conversation. Here is the current bestselling Nonfiction Book according to the bookstore in pasadena, california. Topping the list is the splendid into vial, eric larson study of Prime MinisterWinston Churchill leadership during the london blitz, that followed by glynn and doyles memoir untamed, after that terra westovers account of growing up in idaho mountains and her introduction to formal education at the age of 17 and her book educated. This is been on the bestsellers list for more than two years, then katie orphan explores l. A. Book culture and readme los angeles. In wrapping up or look at some of the bestselling Nonfiction Books at romans bookstore is becoming, former first Lady Michelle obamas memoir becoming was the bestselling book of 2018. Some of these offers have appeared on the tv and you can watch them online at booktv. Org. Good evening, welcome. I am stephanie come on the coowner of community bookstore. [applause] it doesnt surprise me that the crowd is hardcore. We are thrilled to welcome rebecca on her new book the reflections of my nonexistence, shall be in conversation with leslie jamison, please note that there will not be assigning after the event that rebecca did arrive early to sign each and every one oou