Welcome back. We didnt solve all the problems in the last pane panel so we wiy to solve them on this one so there will be an easier time when he comes. Right now we are going to shift over it to thinking about some of the more diplomatic aspects of the problem set and one of the things we heard from the Previous Panel is a lot of Solutions Come from the diplomatic toolkit we have another remarkable panel to help us think through the. On the right from your perspective, ambassador patterson is the former assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs. She was ambassador to four different countries, egypt, pakistan, colombia and el salvador and she was also the assistant secretary of state for national law enforcement, the aptly named drug and food portfolio than she was the acting ambassador and deputy ambassador to the united nations. Next, we have ambassador doug silman of the institute in washington. He previously served as the u. S. Ambassador to iraq and kuwait and was the deputy chief in baghdad. At the end, doctor iviaz was on the International Crisis group where he previously served as the theme youre iran analyst before he joined icg he headed the project at the federation of american scientists. He has a phd in biomedical science from geneva, masters in International Policy from the Johns Hopkins school for International Studies where he studied with jon alterman. So i am quite delighted to have joali on the stage as well. It seems to me that the last panel kind of kicked it over to you guys. So this is a fundamentally diplomatic problems that. One over what is interesting to talk about those. Diplomatically, what are the big things that we need to do that we are doing . It isnt just about that but we just dont get about like we use to. And i suspect this is particularly true in saudi arabia when we dont know whats going on with the cleric or the royal family we dont know whats going on outside the major cities. And this is a truly destructive results of what took place in all fairness its been going on for years after the bombing of our embassy. The embassy in yemen is closed libya is closed. After the attack we went back to saudi arabia so what are the implications of the department not knowing what is going on. We look afraid and that aggravates enormously with withdrawal on the ground because if you asked somebody to come to your Fortress Embassy instead of going to their office it signals you are afraid to engage with the local population and the result is much more dramatic so first i think it is to build to enable people to get out and then we have to take on a risk. So what are the opportunities . There are still opportunities the first is to do everything we can with those gdp countries i would be the first to say in the administration that worked on this but it was always perceived as a secondtier event it had very little to do with iran and certainly nothing to do with israel it was never a high level issue i would argue but i do feel it has serious implications because what we are seeing is the rift has been weaponize like in the horn of africa. With the peace deal and the tallow band. On the tallow band. So we need to do everything we can to work on this. It is very unfortunate that dcc is collapsing the Security Architecture was a myth that the fact us was they are working on this with the modern success over time certainly there were successes on the economic side and even with integration and economic integration but there are things worth doing and to mention one more reason to work on the gulf and the gcc with a report that came out two weeks ago. I know many of you didnt agree with this because the scholars have been predicting the fall 70 years but it basically said there will have serious Financial Issues in 15 years saudi arabia in particular in kuwait and cutter would be influenced because of their sovereign wealth but those implications was that they would turn on each other assistance to jordan would drop and the issue has been guest workers would be sent home to egypt and pakistan. In other words given the long term strategic objective in the gulf we need to do everything we can to encourage security and Energy Integration the matter how hard it would be and work on this for a longterm objective. Finally with the opportunity there is yemen and i know that doug will talk about this but four years ago, i think basically they were just doing it to the saudis with no real strategic interest in yemen i think its a lot harder now , but this is an issue that just cries out for sustained Us Engagement to reach some kind of settlement because the humanitarian costs are so high. And second saying that it has ruined the saudi relationship with the us that have strategic implications also. We need to do everything we can to repair that and that would be the next level of the diplomatic emphasis. Thank you. I was on fox news talking to a couple of their anchors and senator rand paul said this would mean the end of death of diplomacy how do you react to that . Ive been a diplomat 35 years i never thought diplomacy would ever be dead but the perception is there are a lot of opportunities for diplomacy its just that it isnt the priority of the academic or the administration to identify that right now. The final question we had coming from over here from where i wanted to start the discussio discussion, looking at the middle east in particular i was in riyadh in abu dhabi last week this is the only game in town in the gulf for middle east. That means the emma roddys, saudis , kuwaitis, they are looking for other alternatives looking at five g infrastructure but also looking around the region , there is no other country that i can pull to gather the different regional powers or International Powers like the United States. Some people run a parallel between the empire of world war ii or britain gave up the United States actually is not doing that. First of all we are not a colonial power in the traditional sense we dont occupy countries around the world what we have is a crop it if agreement and in good places good cases with a broad representation of the governmen government. Even though relatively less powerful we arent losing much less we choose not to use it. There are a lot of opportunities at the beginning of 2000 and what i saw was constant positions from a war between the United States and iran. I disagree with the evaluation of the first panel with the iranian escalation because the United States took responsibility for killing Qassem Soleimani iran had to respond as i ran so those official strikes on the iraq he bases what is irans parallel strike to even the playing field. But after that both sides went back secretary pompeo and secretary minh nguyen because they said we will not do anything for now but with this region we have taken our retribution for the killing of Qassem Soleimani but then to go back to the areas of comfort to support the proxy and the allies of the United States to reduce the impact of the us economic sanctions in the United States to double down for the individuals and could work on iranian policy. And this is more for a discussion but if its a real world or american diplomacy if it could build International Alliances with our european allies, israel and potentially china, first of all is the jcpoa two. Zero is very clear its not coming back the way it was before but its also clear iran is willing to move in that direction over the course of last summer on three different occasions those visions on what iran could accept with the way that President Trump could claim he god a Better Nuclear Deal than obama had gotten. If you look at the use of the forces in iraq you can see to a large extent at iran strategic projection will be more easily done with missiles and Nuclear Weapons because it has those International Implications with industrial warfare and iraq can use those Ballistic Missiles to that effect but the cruise missiles guided by drones. Again a huge technological leap so iran may not be as concerned as keeping the Nuclear Weapons program as it has been in the past that the second issue is how do we work with our allies in the gulf or the International Community to reduce regional threat . There is a lot of experience in the Us Government and the state department on how you can walk into the effective misconduct missile control agreement. But the big elephant in the room is the support of the proxy. They are very concerned about continued iranian interference for the groups that oppose the policies. This is now more prominent in iraq than syria and would reduce the amount of money the iranians had to fund those external activities. And this is something that we could address we have been hearing iranians are tiring specifically of support of the houthis in yemen that havent done nothing but prolong the war. But they are not great iranian allies. They havent always used training and weapons so there may be an opening for the discussions to deescalate with the Security Issues. Its also possible a few weeks ago where there was some talk of a larger discussion that might bring in missile programs. And not much happening on them but for the United States with these diplomatically to move forward but unilaterally and then we will have to go together as the most influential nation. And taking credit for my education i hope you take the blame for whatever i say today. I thought it might be useful to shed some light on the irradiance i do think the first panel did a good job and for the first year strategy and to that extent possible the number of skirmishes in the u. S. Navy and israel targeted hundreds of times to get a response in the hope to thereby neutralize us sanctions. So when we pushed for the forces at zero the iranians decided to adopt maximum pressure of their own this is the Nuclear Realm every 60 days under the jcpoa and in the region with the tankers and the attacks to the pipeline in saudi arabia. Know one so obviously this coincides with Qassem Soleimani and i agree for the iranians taking a direct strike on the us military installation crosses that threshold in the same way killing the iranian general was crossing the red line so they wanted to establish this cannot happen again and the us military officials and what they say about this and from what i have heard everybody agrees that it is just sheer luck nobody was killed in the attacks in iraq. But now there is a debate they should go back for the remainder of the president s first term and then reassess or to stay where they are or double down on their own strategy in their arguments on both sides who is advocating for what they are those moderate forces to go back through the irg see and those that are quite content. Because they believe it has demonstrated the capabilities with a lot of people in the region are afraid the accuracy of the missiles used or even the Ballistic Missiles with us bases in iraq and to demonstrate the vulnerabilities the fact we could have a single Patriot Missile protecting the bases in iraq but not a single missile was fired. But finally to a certain extent to drive a wedge in this coalition the administration has put together and their view it has been a relative success we saw a shift in the position maybe not the one ed but even with the us to become pretty close that france was trying to mediate. Put this together about the cost and benefits but the biggest question is how do we change and of trump is there another four years or five years and sanctions what does iran do in the majority view is iran should not become another cuba a country to live under sanctions or another iraq that is weakened under sanctions so my only sense is the hardliners now have the upper hand and are more and more isolated. This is a risky thing to bet in washington in front of a crowd but i will anyway is that i think the iranians will slow down the military installation because on that front we have ended up with the implicit situation the iranians are doing less with their obligations and getting less out of it. But i dont think they want to go any further out of fear to push the europeans into the arms of the Trump Administration and then the listing of the conventional arms that the irradiance really care about that this would be the first time in many years they could buy conventional arms and narrow the gap of these capabilities in the region. They are keen on keeping the deal alive and then talking only a few weeks who will be the next president. On the Nuclear Front i think we will see a slowdown but on the regional front the hardliners will get the upper hand but in a way that is comfortable with iran as it operates in this zone of asymmetric warfare trying to impose a cost by targeting us assets and us facilities in iraq and Companies Like exxon just to make life difficult without killing americans in the hope it would be some sort of drawdown. But then with their is plausible deniability they could go after americans are one of those places of the focus of our discussions today is afghanistan they have ties with the taliban and they might try to go after us forces in afghanistan that can be much better than iraq or syria or lebanon but one question of the next panel that is fundamental to shift to the grand strategy priority is the fact that what level of influence so the persian nation and then that she is but one that shia but we cannot exclude them from the region and all of those coalitions be put together from the middle east Strategic Alliance to the Security Forces in the region to the warsaw conference all have been aimed at excluding iran with the mechanism of the regional motiv motive. So what degree of influence is plausible and does iran have legitimate security concerns cracks if they do then what is the solution so for the Ballistic Missile program and the defense policy so they will give it away especially under pressure or the threats from the outside the only way they may compromise as the questions im also putting out there. Thank you very much all of you. One of the concern is not the us presence in the region but in many ways the measure of iranian success is survival. The measure of us success with diplomacy, diplomacy is never done. There will be further engagement or effort to shape so that the irradiance will always perceive themselves as long as they survive and we will only see our diplomacy as the way to be successful but how do you deal with that problem of dealing with success to encourage a continuation of the problem . General lee was at i tend to say to younger diplomats the job of the diplomat very seldom solves a problem you can get an arms control agreement that solves a piece but even with the United States and the soviet union , never ended the tensions of ambitions. Most typically with the diplomat is to manage those situations to that extent possible is hard to define complete and total success when you look at keeping the status quo. Is hard to get credit for things that are happening that they said would happen anyway. Look at the jcpoa seems to have been the attempt by the Obama Administration to deal with a problem of iranian threat with the potential Nuclear Weapons program it doesnt touch on human rights minorities or political opponents all those things to be included in the deal but it cannot put all of these into one agreement. So they necessarily pull back that scope with that international consensus. And then to have a broad perception it was good application but incomplete only dealing with part of the problem we have to deal with. I think thats right and with that issue on the table and the Obama Administration so there was never any illusion. And down the road. With the jcpoa experience so before in the sense those that were critical to the success of the nuclear deal later on that burns the bridges to deal with the iranians behind the rack. So now we have tried different scenarios to negotiate on their own or behind their back or to stop them. And the lesson is that you cant have a separate arms control and a discussion about the region and then to happen in parallel because they would not survive in the context of the broader entities that exist. But to live on alleviate those concerns that exacerbated the asymmetry in the region with the partners and the Ballistic Missile program that it was a bad deal. It was the self licking i. C. E. Cream cone. [laughter] so if the us were to engage the iranians of the regional behavior with that maximum pressure, what should those priorities be . Should that be the iranian presence in iraq . Afghanistan . If the us were try to take this pathway on a regional pictur picture, who needs to be reassured or needs reassuring . The questions dont get easier. [laughter] and the countries are schizophrenic recently because i think what they wanted is to keep iran in a box. What they didnt want, they didnt want a real shooting war and they became worried about that because our response was consistent and incoherent and that precipitated them for iran to cut their own deal. So i think they are in the state of anxiety right now and they dont know quite what to do with it. And looking to re yard and the college in abu dhabi and in that the council and whether or not and how it could be way more effective. And that in the gulf to search for strategic death anywhere even specifically with turkey is in other parts of the region. So how be odd re odd or abu dhabi begins to form that because we want to do this together. So one might be that intermediate step to help the members unify themselves and the secretary general literally two weeks in but there is a mechanism that can help to provide more effective way to campus on the same page. And the two diplomats didnt identify any regional behaviors. My own view with yemen because he iranian strategic interest. And. Here is this doctrine to keep them off the harry line dash arabian peninsula. If you add to that with the discussions with the gulf states and israel how we get back into negotiations jcpoa two. Zero. Also we think that in this discussion its pretty clear israel and the gulf states will move quickly on a separate track for Security Issues for missile programs and highly suggestive but i think yemen and president macro and was pushing for those discussions and that the United States should be working with traditional friends and allies and to shape that consensus if we define the longerterm goals so whenever i talk to iranian officials about the regional activities to support Political Parties with the merging of the iranians of the lebanese citizens. That mentality is bizarre. And depending on what they get in return not all proxies are the same. And with those allies it all depends on what kind of security assurances but its almost blasphemy if you say it out loud in this city but they can buy fighter jets to reduce the of one the reliance. If you think about the proxie proxies, you see this problem in a totally different way. If you see this as the expansion to restore the empire but we agree yemen is low hanging fruit and then they signal they are willing to be more helpful but what would they get out of it . But iran cannot accuse the houthis i think the iranians are the spoiler. So to help the iranians get a ceasefire. And then allows them to keep their heads above water. And then with the diplomacy it will backfire. And with that animosity any that could be completely resolved but it is an important question of how much we could expect that to be mitigated. Could it be a working relationship . What were the realistic aspirational goal for the nature of the ties. It was that way for decades that was before the different iranian government but its not inconceivable that you could go back to the live and let live scenario but certainly you cant go back to what we have which is maximum pressure. And the Obama Administration talks about a confidence but the Eastern Province of the shia population in the golf but then you can get those confidence Building Measures but. And then with the Obama Administration strategy with the equilibrium but the question is why did it looks like. One of the issues we have to deal with is that iran decks policy on two levels. It should be state to state but also policy through proxy and support for nongovernmental groups and also across the world. One thing that has to happen from the standpoint of the gulf and then to draw the question some way to a large extent the decision to show there were actual consequences to their policies in iraq. So to rip the bandaid off this idea that in with those supported groups to that will be one of the biggest problems to address security. List to a broader Regional Security or a paradigm that conceives of the security aimed i think it will be very difficult. Its a golf state we dont know enough but it could be a big leap because but it is the first step to the discussion. I would make two points. Number one and germany and europe it isnt the unusual setting. And those interests are preserved. And the same way then to put the finger and then when we try to bring about some kind those that are exacerbated. But at this stage that the only deescalation that has occurred and what the us has done but to be mentioned in with saudi arabia. And that they have not followed up. And because of us pressure. And then was some sort of dialogue. And actually kissinger but it has happened. And so to let them their dialogue. And it is really quite hard to figure out a way of deescalating. From Penn State University so whether you think the government is getting ready to drink the poison . Going back to khomeini the candidates that were offered the populace there is no doubt there is a takeover so that gives the government the capability without having to explain of nixon going to china. Do you think. And as a former diplomat i dont believe in so who is helping out i ran and shouldnt they be chatting with the nation as well . And and then to be monolithic. And those that we have seen before. And with that context with those moderates. And then to be taken over by the hardliners. To create lot of inside around the government. But and that maximum pressure that is multidimensional of information warfare. Some of this victory trying hard to survive but people dont understand to think of the demands of the regime and then to guarantee the survival of the regime. The only idea that comes at the cost and that will never happen. So to have that mutual beneficial deal and they have proven over the years and then china. But this is a nation of 80 million. And then it is forced to have that indigenous capabilities. And then to talk to israeli officials there was a rethinking because this technique of those tactics with those drones if these are used against the critical sites or the Nuclear Plants it is a major game changer. Do you address this now . And at the risk of major backlash so how far do you push without getting yourself or your military leader that retaliation . And then actually to capitulate those capabilities and that pressure to pull down the regime. One of the things i would like to see is better articulated with the policy of iran itself. Some people are hoping that economic pressure with the Islamic Republic will fall but others are looking for specific changes for those allies for the cruise missiles and the strategies im not confident and with the copy of the constitution the anti american and with those achievements but there is a lot which supports the radical iranian policies and with that government to softpedal with that economic insecurity benefit because it hasnt been tried since the jcpoa. We will take a brief break as we set up the podium. [applause] i want to talk about the coronavirus outbreak not just home but abroad as well to declare the First Priority is the homeland as strong travel advisories all known carriers treatment then be placed in mandatory quarantine upon return to the United States. And then to do the enormous amount of work inside and outside of china to help those stricken by the virus. And with thes threat of the coronavirus to expose the issue that led to sars mean the censorship and consequences. Journal and medical personnel would be far better prepared to address the challenges similarly and then to suppress vital details about the outbreak in the country. And then second only to china in the coronavirus death. And then to cooperate with those international organizations