Hes the iranian studies director from the university and serves as the iran democracy codirector at Stanford UniversityHoover Institution. Thank you for joining us. What is the best way to view iran after the last couple of days . I think iran as having a second person in the country for structure. The leadership and iran is strengthened by the show of emotion. Grief five people of iran. So the people in the United States and syria and lebanon might have been the instigator of a lot of mayhem. Democrats fighting this industry a few days before this, two months before this month that would be the biggest demonstration against this regime ever in the 40 years the regime how do terrible thousands of people. They felt they threatened, they feel that strengthened to the punch. The demonstrations welcome back because the results rather in the situation. Does that mean for the u. S. . What i think it means is that the decision for money, natural pecans offenses but aside from the ramifications of whether its right to after a person whose official of the government, the United States declares him to be terrorist but the parliament of iran Just Announced the entire pentagon to be a terrorist organization. The entire u. S. Military to be a terrorist organization. That doesnt give them the right to do any of this. To equate the Iranian Parliament which is to of them, with other countries and serious parliaments but if the rule of law into national law will hold, you cant make these kinds of judgments so they clearly had that. I have no doubt. Theres one thing overwhelming evidence. They made it abundantly clear that the basic job in the world is to organize religious fervor in the middle east against United States against israel. He made no promise about this so the question is it was he a good car guy. The question is, how do you go after somebody whether the consequences . Look at what happened in iraq. The relationship with the United States, the United States spent 2 trillion to get this government, that government has voted to ask the United States forces and thats where they are responsible for this government and the basic physis to leave iraq. These would have been rejectable consequences if someone asked me to go after soleimani in iraq. I would have said many of these things that have happened. What happens now, the arms they supported, particularly in light of new leadership. The deputy has already been appointed, almost 24 hours after his death. Hes been involved in many of the shenanigans he was involved in. He was the person who helped organize the tens of thousands of afghan shiites and sent them to syria. The parliament who said the sole money of shiites 5500 of them have been killed. Soleimani was the commander, the person who organized it. They go about their business, which was the business of creating these and using them against the United States. But because of the charisma that soleimani had was really important because he had a unique relationship with the Supreme Leader. They had a very clear relationship if you go back and look at the pictures. Theres nobody else in leadership, whose judgment trusted. So its going to continue, theres not going to be as effective as it was because of the personal aspect in the parliament, just yesterday might increase the budget to the tune of 200 million euros. Increased budget isnt going to necessarily be all it takes. They have lost some of their ability because of soleimanis personal relationship. Of soleimanis new, is that taking part in intensifying the attacks . Very surprising and what it does for what it suggests. They are not paid enough attention while soleimani was the executor of this policy, it was and still is harmony. The personal direct link long before soleimani. They are the head of hezbollah and lebanon. From the time we created has blocked has blocked, it was. The effectiveness might have been diminished. The person in charge of this policy in place, he has now decided that making symbolic gesture of attack the u. S. Bases along the u. S. To know about it or the u. S. Intelligence picking up two hours ahead. Creating the decision to make revenge and pulled out. I think they have decided to do the same. Begin to move on a process of the escalation. The studies director at Stanford University, the iran democracy, Hoover Institution joining us for this conversati conversation. If you want to ask questions, call in. Before we take calls, you were in iran up until 1986, what happened to bring you to the United States . I used to teach at Iran University in political science. The leadership is almost all m men. They decided to post the university they came to the possible out of a faculty of 45. Then they grab you back after a year and eventually, i love teaching my work and i realized i cant stay there anymore and things were becoming increasingly corrupt for my son who is beginning to realize this is a country in war. That was the time Saddam Hussein was attacking iran. My son was not recognizing the terror meaning from the skies every night so i decided to leave and have been here since. Our first call comes from washington d. C. Youre on with our guest. Good morning. My question has to do with irans response to the assassination of soleimani. It appears they werent goaded into doing something more than what they did. I say that is a naive person but someone who has common sense. The United States, the president of the United States undermines impeachment. What more would boast his position and perhaps other than a war . The fact that they did response the way the president wanted kind of twotiered that whole process the United States taking another step that would be more . I think the fact that iran could not do something more kind of made him kick it. Will take that and a response. First of all, im not sure the assumption is correct. I dont think the president engages in the full regional war in the middle east. It is going to be a Major Military and Economic Disaster for everyone. I think whats on President Trump elective, the fact that he wants the u. S. To get out of the middle eastern wars. So it is old that foreign wars getting them busy. American politics right now is getting with impeachment. Youre right, i think iran did show this in the reaction but you have to realize the iranian economy and society is very fragile. The economy is very much in corruption, confident and added to that, one of the most remarkable, difficult set of sanctions Trump Administration has put on iran. Theyve exacerbated the economy. When they decided to make this, he was caught between two difficult choices. On the one hand, he was late because he was political isolated. It was revenge and on the other hand, he knew if he attacks and kills u. S. Personal and for example, if he attacks a u. S. Base, its almost as close to them geographically as this was. He knew he would have a full wall on his hand. They would take out all of that, they knew the u. S. Base. Good morning. We are not all ignorant here in the u. S. We understand whats going on. Collective 1953 and 26 years of ruling enforced but trained by the cia in torture techniques so hows a country like that, they only escaped in the mosque so you end up with a movement is largely economic and when he emerged, he made sure he all the secular resistance was sure so we end up with them islamic state. The u. S. Has howled itself out in the last 40 years. We dont make hardly anything anymore. China is clearly the rising power. Lee is really have influence on the u. S. And trump is a tool of the israelis. For the topic of iran, would you like to ask . He thinks iran can come out of this positively. Clearly the United States would not be democratic if it has pressures put against him. Thats absolutely right. The relationships complicated. It didnt begin at 253 and many iranians along to overthrow a democratically elected and popular Prime Minister. Recent declassified documents have come from the United States failing the enrollment of the u. S. , makes it much more complicated situation than just 15th cia crews. I dont think the majority of iranian people today are driven. I think thats what the Iranian Regime wants the world to think. If you put yourself in the american, who doesnt have opposition, the average american would say they responded by taking americans for 440 days. Arrhenius responded by typing soleimani organized Iraqi Shiites against u. S. Forces in iraq. So my sense is that the majority of iranians arent driven by this. They like great majority of americans find ignorant. They keep the way out of this mess for iran to have a democratic government. People want to have a democratic government. Not the kind of people you call from maryland and ask people what they think. Every a running nose they are all there. Less than 10 of the people of iran have had this status quo. Thats a remarkable number. I talked about the demonstration. That demonstrations came about a year end a half after another round of demonstrations. People in iran want change. They want to make that change themselves, they want to be the masters of their own domains. The United States has a policy that helps the democratic process without interfering, without deciding who the next 26 are supposed to be. To me, the only way to have peace in the middle east would be to have remaining people to take over, they have the right to say 1979 revolution was not supposed to create a democratic position in iran. It was supposed to be a democratic movement. I was reading about this and it describes this process in detail. Because of the strength of the religious network in iran because of them, but people still want that democratic society. A secular society. Men and women are equal. A society where jews and christians in iranian are invincible and have the rights of citizenship were iran doesnt engage in terrorism. To me, anything that delays this process i think is the detriment of the region and the United States. We have a professor saying the president s actions as just about guaranteed iran will not develop nuclear weapon. You think thats reality . They have two very important rolls in this. One is that iran announced nano longer abiding by the nuclear fuel the obama ministration signs. I think it was the most serious role. I was always a critical supporter of it. I said this is better than anything else out there. Iran withdrew from. Iran also is in the process of making a decision may be to withdraw. Theres a resolution introduced in the Iranian Parliament yesterday to give an extent of how the iranian politics have shifted, the person who introduced the bill is a moderate critic of the regime. The person who has most often criticized the policy to the extent he has now introduced the bill to withdraw. Is it likely ran will go running toward that . I dont its impossible to predict. I think they might very well be tempted. There were people in iran long before this from within the regime who said if we had to bomb the United States would be treating us. Remember north korea has several bombs. North korea in the last few years of President Trump administration has made the times very aggressive. They have not stopped the program and papers in iran, they said we also had produced a bomb, they wouldnt be making these threats to us. They wouldnt treat us the way they treat north korea. The discrepancy thought exists and the uss treatment of korea in iran is being in iran by radical elements tuesday we should go north koreas way. There is evidence in the past that suggests the Supreme Leader has traveled to the north korea. They said this is not a bad way to run a country. It becomes north korea when these demonstrations happen. Iran shut down 5 . Iran became almost as close to an isolated country behind a digital iron as north korea was. So these problems need to be considered when any decision is made about iran. Missouri, darrell im. Thank you for taking my call. I cant hear anything. The comment is your giving the president too much credit for having a strategy for what hes doing because every count country, everybody wants freedom and speech, freedom to go. People who say they go to the president and his constituents, hoping hes a leader of the free war his Previous Administration he keeps referring to try to bring peace by helping the country. He tries to make allies stronger and tries to show adversaries that he could be there and we would have a world of peace now. The people who still say, which i dont think americans are for trump, i dont think its even 20 . Im listening to this democracy in iran and america all over the world, we do not want a war. The idea of iran democracy or potential democracy, or that take with the religious hold of the country . I think your takeoff transition from this regime to a more democratic iran. This transition is not easy because i think of three factors. One, is still has the power to do violence against people in it said they killed upward of 1000 people. Thats not a joke. People were just demonstrating for economic grievances. Second, they still have some basis reports. 10 are satisfied with the status quo. Thats a very dedicated 10 . They are gaining a member economically enormous regions. Its luxury beyond their wildest dreams. They are not going to give up easily. Third, the reason the transition to democracy will be more is that iran is not befriending china. Iran is defending russia. His drink operation for the First Time Ever in history. In the persian gulf with china and russia. Iran has just released a base in the persian gulf through russia. Iran has invited the chinese navy into the persian gulf. Very soon, you will have Chinese Naval ships, Russian Naval ships, u. S. Naval ships, British Naval ships. Japans naval ships all in the persian gulf. Once, in china, russia and iran is that the regimes that despised the leadership democracy, the three countries have tried to make the digital once successful, russia is moving in that direction. Iran is very much moving in that direction. The iranian people have very difficult mountains to climb to get to democracy but they keep fighting them. They keep having People Killed and people going to prison. Keep having people leave the country in desperation. Iran is the number one country, the number one country whose brightest leave the country. Two days ago, there was an unfortunate crash in the ukrainian airliner. There were several people who were top mathematicians in the country were going to canada so its a very difficult situation but people want it and regime is absolutely brutal and the decision to try to stay as long as i can. In pennsylvania and Stanford University. Can you hear me . We can hear your. Professor, i have respect for your. A little bit worried about your safety but like my relative, you are very brave. You left your country of origin and i support your. I support and im learning so much today from your perspecti perspective. You give us credibility because of iran. I would like to ask, is it true about President Trump accusing obama iran billions of dollars, i think he may have twisted the truth a bit but is it true the u. S. Did out billions of dollars and whats your opinion about president obama paying that money back . Theres some discrepancy on how much money actually was given to iran. He had about 150 billion. Certainly there were seven billions of dollars or any revival. There was a large sum that was ultimately run. It was part of the agreement. The president also talks about corporately and dollars in cash, that is true. There was a precondition signing agreement, some of it should be repaid a visit and interest in the United States going to iran. To have that money in cash carried to iran in a plane was bad but it was money that was owed to iran. I think to say that they shouldnt have given that money, thats a difficult question. They say the Trump Administration is right. Iran used most of that money not to eliminate the people, the used most of that money to strengthen has a lot and fight into syria. I have a problem with the narrative in the trump of menstruation, they keep pointing to that. They are isolating that from a more serious problem. Obama administration came when iran had 19000. It had 10000 kilos of uranium. They had heavy water in iraq that was working. Iran was six to 12 months away from having such. The Obama Administration decided that was the most urgent problem. They have to stop that bomb. I wouldnt be surprised if israel would have decided to take on iran try to destroy the Nuclear Sites would would have been a very serious confrontation. When they make that decision, then they decided to put all the pressure and possibilities in trying to reach that deal. Trying to reach that deal was a good decision. In my view, having that deal was a good decision. I think it was wrong to leave some things out. You could predict this would become a problem. It was wrong to me not to have the issue of human rights on the table. It was wrong not to have the role of iran in the region on the table. Those who negotiated the deal, ive heard from them and theyve come to stanford. Dave said the most important thing of the nuclear deal and we wanted to have this done. The notion that they gave money, i think thats true. The amount of money is second in question, tens of billions. 1. 4 billion, i think it was. It was iranian money knows part of a deal that they were pushing back the nuclear deal to a far more difficult place for them. We will hear from grace and marilyn, you are on. I hope people and iran no north korea is the most militant border in the world before they think about calming them. My question is, people like chess, im sure they would strategize, iraq is going to ask us to leave. In that situation, what do you think would be the conclusion or result if the culture withdrew . Do you think iran would go to create a proxy state, not just militant . You think the region might settle down . I think if u. S. Forces are wrong, you have to conclude the United States gave iraq to iran twice. First when the United States attacked iraq and didnt have enough planning for what would happen afterwards and iran, they need to be filled in. Almost every Prime Minister that has ruled iraq has been a very close ally. Many of them have lived in iran as a political exile. Iran claimed from 80 to 88 for associate radicals and immediately went back. Iran has created an enormous network. New york times recently published that instead of documents they found. About how intensive iran influence and Iraqi Government is but iran overplayed it. They overplayed the shiite and weeks before, iraqi politics was absolutely turned because of demonstrations and shiites against iran. That Qassem Soleimani leave here were burned by demonstrators many of them shiite demonstrators but all of that changed and irans influence now begins and iraq is left to its own devices and it forces withdraw it will become an absolute place where two forces to try to further their influence. First and foremost iran which has a very deep network and then defeated but not dead isis. If the u. S. Military leaves and they start training and fighting against isis for what they thought id be an iranian counterattack isis would either beneficiary and iran i think has benefited already because the attitude has changed. The Iraqi Parliament as i said voted not to ask iran to leave by the nonbinding resolution but im not sure well ever happen but symbolically its important. Guest . Host micahs and california and independent line. Go ahead. Caller good morning gentlemen. Id like to quote John Quincy Adams could he said america does not go abroad in search of monsters to destroy. She is the wellwisher freedom and independence of all. Shes a champion and vindicator only of her own. President reagans implemented this for apartheid south africa. The most Popular Television program in apartheid south africa at that time almost all tv sets were owned by White South Africans was the cosby show. My view what happened there was something very subversive which is the cosby show with the extraordinary humanity of the players got through the heads of the african white jordie. These are human beings. Host caller we are running out of town so make your point about iran or leave your question or comment for a guess. Go ahead please. Caller do you think this is applicable to iran . Thank you. Guest absolutely. When i said the United States should help in the democratic process one of the things ive are suggested is precisely that the United States have a lot of appeal to iran and the culture and universities have. Ironically many of the children of irans ruler are now living in the United States and going to school in the United States. The United States has a great deal to precisely do in that sense end of her in that sense but it has been tempered for example because the voice of america hasnt been as effective to other channels like abc and Iran International has taken over the audience here. The ban on the travel of iranians to the United States is i think counterproductive. When the u. S. Is fighting an ideological war with the soviet union or with castro dissidents could easily come to the United States. Its why the easiest ways to get a permanent residency in the United States. At stanford they havent a able to bring iranian dissidents since the ban was put into place. That van is counterproductive. That band allows the Iranian Regime to tell its people that look the United States doesnt feel in your favor but its not giving iranians the chance to enter. There were reports in the last 50 days that there might have been some iranian american citizens. People with an american passport held some points of entry. That doesnt carry well in iraq to the regime uses this to say the american support iranian democracies. Look what they are doing to the iranian citizens for the clip aired doing to you. They are allowing you to get a visa. They have a student from Stanford University who gets accepted to stanford right now and its extremely difficult. The students worked and got accepted at Stanford University and went and got the visa and then he was told that he cant come. These are exactly the opposite of the kinds of campaigns the u. S. Ram against apartheid south africa, against stalinist russia against castro cuba. The United States has to open its doors in my view to iranian dissident iranian citizens who are not of the regime in that part of the culture war will be very much detrimental to the regime. Why is it that the regime still is insistent on creating this digital iron curtain . They know the iranian people want to watch american television. Host this is professor abbas milani at Stanford University joining us for this discussion on iran and joining us from stanford california. Professor thanks for your time this morning. Guest thank you for having me produce a pleasure joining you. The impeachment of President Trump. Continue to follow the process on cspan leading to a senate trial live unfiltered coverage on cspan. We have the great body of evidence already before us. We have much of which is sworn testimony already and being crossexamined that it would be possible in my own mind for us to conduct the trial without having witnesses called. This is representative ted guild hall avril republican of the Third District to member of the Foreign Affairs committee. What did you learn from the briefing on iran . Guest is probably one of the best briefings we have had. Ive gone to a lot of in the amount p