Transcripts For CSPAN2 Michael Nelson Trumps First Year 20180205

[inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] it is great to have you here. With longstanding friends of the center it is a pleasure to be here today and what has been a terrific project much of the last three years at the Miller Center with a firstyear project we are now one year and one week into the President Trump administration and we started to plan this effort in the spring of 2015 shortly after i arrived at the center but it really came from the center itself. There was a real question when i came in as a new director how we think about the upcoming three years with president ial elections almost two years out from when i had arrived and we thought about taking the extraordinary Historical Archive that we have built and her own scholars and network and with future administrations. After several weeks of planning we came back with this idea of the governing council to build human, Financial Support support for the effort. It has been a Terrific Team effort to bring together parts of the Miller Center to build on things we have done in the past like the war power commission, from 2009 which is a bipartisan look at the constitutional system and that accommodation of scholarship and practitioners is something we want to inject into this project. It was easy to predict any new president would face immense challenges and we knew that because we had looked at president ial history. Saying you get one year before congress stops thinking about you and start thinking about their own reelection no matter how big of a majority they will start thinking about what it means for them with the next years midterm primaries then on the National Security side, looking back at history the crisis comes at precisely the wrong time when a new team comes into place they could be experience but they dont know one another or how to work together. We saw that particular with the bush 41 administration with dick cheney who told us his oral history. Probably to have this wonderful ability to say on paper we have been the best National Security team ever. He may have been right to be director of the head of United Nations or white house staff secretary of state james baker or secretary of treasury. And white house chief of staff powell and joint chiefs of staff with the National Security advisor and the list goes on and on with the National Security advisor with brent escrow croft to say he would keep having doing the job until he got it right. We were great on paper until presented with a crisis and we totally screwed it up. Dick cheney was giving a speech at gettysburg. I dont know where the hell baker was an powell was new in the job and didnt have a process. We want to think through systemically how they appoint their cabinet that make the administration to have those priorities that they can do by executive action. And how they manage that too difficult miles of those relationships we heard jimmy carter tell us to be elected as an outsider he didnt need the support of his political party. And then similar to and this was on the outside. And so look back across president ial history not just the structure but the opportunities and threats for the incoming president to help shape the understanding for the Incoming Administration or the public in general as they themselves had to plan for this moment sometimes every four years or every eight years. We want to bring together researchers with practitioners and what we were able to accomplish is extraordinary. Almost exceed essays which today we are releasing this book crucible which was the best of those. And as a senior fellow and also the director of policy here when we started the project a desire and are of the entire effort. And now head of admissions and external affairs. And we are still delighted to have jeff with us as part of our family. To earn coverage with prominent Media Outlets cnn, fox, slate the Washington Post more than two dozen firstyear project producing a terrific event at the Reagan Library reagan, bush, clinton, bush, and obama who was 40 years out from this job to the alumni listening to Lyndon Johnson to writing for barack obama. We could do a van in washington and those who cochaired the volume on National Security and cohosted the first event in washington we launch the project then on National Security in the first year at the wilson center. Jeff was a huge part of this at the Historic Homes and learning centers Jefferson Madison Wilson Kennedy reagan bush clinton. Then finally working with the president ial Transition Team for the Hillary Clinton and donald trump campaign. Both as a transition house want to quickly introduce the panel a few of whom i have mentioned already mike nelson is a senior fellow with us teaching at Rhodes College he took this work to produce a book and President Trumps firstyear recently reviewed in the Washington Post including those great excerpts of the oral history program. Not to mention the compton professor and coeditor of the volume on the dangerous firstyear. And Mary Kate Cary speechwriter of the bush administration. Graduating roughly the same time and then went on to work on the Bush Campaign i worked on the Dukakis Campaign and we know who went further and higher as a result. [laughter] i was rearranging deck chairs she was arranging a flight plan. [laughter] and with the president ial Recordings Program and with the president s first budget and also writing an essay and with the passing of Medicare Medicaid elections and finally Stefanie Abbott the assistant director of president ial studies is the air Traffic Controller on all things that happened here at the center. With that i will turn it over to the panel and have you taken away. Thank you for coming. I want to start by turning to mike nelson to deliver his remarks. What a great pleasure it is to be in the charlottesville audience what a great privilege it was to be part of the extraordinary firstyear project and he has told you a lot about it but to tell you a lot about this book crucible that has just been published that trumps trumps firstyear if you are so inclined but you are editing something you are very close to it. That you cannot see the forest for the trees then the book arrived i opened one over the table of content one contents because with the Baseball Hall of fame if there was a president ial scholar at the hall of fame with the inaugural members of the president ial scholars hall of famer who knows where. Having only had little bits of it but i will be modest modest if i tell you about the project because that broader firstyear project for those of us who were immersed in the history of the american presidency. We are talking over two centuries of continuous operations that trump is number 45 in a long list to keep before. I could go on and on with a couple of observations may be reading a couple of passages from my book that was informed by and grew out of the extraordinary firstyear project of the Miller Center. When donald trump ran for president gave his inaugural address america is essentially a day or two away from the apocalypse. [laughter] but what i found looking at his first year historically that donald trump was fortunate to take office when he did. I like Abraham Lincoln between his election and inauguration. He did not inherit a war that more than half a million american soldiers were bogged down he did not take use of office in the midst of a financial crisis or the world had its share of problems in the trunk presidency began it was ongoing not urgent but the domestic economy was growing slowly but steadily for all that one quarter of the previous six years. Annual rate of inflation below 2 unemployment below 5 those percentage of americans regarded as middleclass was 62 a greater share than before 2008. The stock market was booming. And unlike all of the predecessors Donald Trump Took Office with a Republican Congress. If you look at it that way donald trump was dealt a very good hand i am somebody who appreciates the significance of the tax cut bill and acted last month into law. But when they have a congress controlled by their own party one major piece of legislation especially the tax cut so i think history gives us a way to measure the scale of accomplishments. And that is something to give us perspective. If you think of the last 70 years in the way we have chosen our president s and the talent pool what you see is a trend Donald Trumps election was the latest so during a quarter century after world war ii the president s reelected senators, Vice President s, Kennedy Johnson dixon or ford and they had built their career not just in government but in washington. No surprise there. Think of what happened before this. Began it was credited with the depression and americans had a lot of confidence in the federal government. Then along comes vietnam war and watergate crisis and then carter election in 1976 the country still isnt experienced but not in washington. That was the appeal just like reagan and bush and clinton they were experienced but not part of that mess. So part of that trend is somebody who comes along to say i have no experience in washington or government and who is willing to vote for me . So that is where we are as people look ahead to 2020 looking at Mark Zuckerberg or Oprah Winfrey not to understand that he did not drop out of the sky that he is the most recent manifestation. Coming from the world of business never the head of a publicly traded corporation with the independent board of directors. Essentially a tightly controlled private companies staffed by family members. The point being that that sector of the Business World how to share power with other stakeholders. That might be more relevant to becoming president where guess what . That a particular kind of celebrity he made movies and Television Shows inspiring more dramatic than to spend eight years as governor of california i dont know if this is your guilty pleasure not anybody to confess if they watched survivor or the apprentice but understand on the apprentice for 14 years. With the guilty pleasure and to seek conflict. So donald trump came out with conflict and put down is of the essence. With experience or interest or study im not going to say that donald trump is stupid. But there is a difference between stupid and ignorant. I am ignorant about massive areas of knowledge but trump took on a job where knowledge of the history of those the constitutional system that you are now a leader might have been helpful. The last thing i will read is one of the scariest in terms of writing it nothing in his Business Career had required donald trump to share power. With absence of governing experience and lack of knowledge and government he had a dim understanding of the sharing of power remanded by the constitution between the State Government in the federal government and between branches within the federal government. Examples of his ignorance abound. So with the specialists session of congress assumed he was sworn in even they were already in session when a new president is sworn in. Andrew jackson trump said quote was really angry about what he saw happening in with the civil war but he died 16 years before the war. Speaking of Abraham Lincoln, trump said those people dont even know he was a republican. Right . Does anybody know . Every republican who have thought of themselves as the party of lincoln knows he was a republican. With Douglas Frederick douglass is an example of somebody doing an amazing job. [laughter] then maybe at a july 8 with republicans trump professed his devotion to the constitution. I want to protect article one. Article two, article 12. Go down the list. There are seven articles. [laughter] after mentioning William Mckinley to a crowd in Youngstown Ohio does anybody know who the hell he is . President mckinleys birthplace 12 miles from where he was giving the speech. Weeks after Hurricane Katrina wrecked the Virgin Islands trump referred to the president of the Virgin Islands just like all territories has a governor. The president of the United States. [laughter] but my favorite is when trump is the equivalent of roosevelt and jfk and in these ways each took a new form of Communication Media and mass media. Fdr, fireside chat, radio, jfk jfk press conference in debate with television but donald trump social media. That is a way to communicate his thoughts directly to us. Sometimes in interesting ways and with Reality Television he has been great to attach touch phrases that are negative. So this is like a singalong. Hillary, ted fake news. You remember this. That is Pretty Amazing but what we dont have is the equivalent are the two word phrase. Blank elf care. Blank infrastructures so this is somebody and then to solidify that base but to solidify. And that further incident that they put out these wild statements and all previous president s i will not stoop to that level. Until donald trump was accused by the north korean government to be an old lunatic not to be branded a lunatic but you take offense to be branded as old that is something to be learned from that. We will stop there because i guarantee this is the worst talk this afternoon. They are the rock stars of the afternoon. Thank you. [applause] into talk about Foreign Policy and National Security so. At bentonville university me and my colleagues i learned a lot and i still love listening to him. In the evocative and luminous way to see realities so thank you for asking to be a part of this project. It has been extraordinarily worthwhile for me to do this. Let me tell you about my role and some of the implications to study the lessons of the first year of the five previous administrations. When these renowned scholars look at the first year of the John Kennedy Administration the first year of reagan and George Hw Bush and bill clinton and george w. Bush. Interestingly there was a lot of consensus of why things go wrong during the first year. Youngs often go wrong the first year because of an absence of coherent strategy. Because of poor processing and flawed teamwork because there is a distracted president usually interested in the mystics affair affairs because of poor staffing and delays in the cabinet things go wrong because of the acrimony between the executive branch the chief executive and congress often things go wrong because of the budget process is not integrated with Strategic Planning or thinking there is a gap between them. We dont need to go into any details but with these qualities to pertain to his first year but nonetheless has many have said during those three or four weeks that is significant there has been no tragedy no 9111 good republican expert said his first year is unnerving but uneventful but should be happy or things could get worse. We should assess his first year. Why is it unnerving . Because the failures to radically exceed successes. So in terms of Foreign Policy National Security policy more or less eradicated isis in syria and iraq with the accomplishment that was already underway with the last couple of years but the military under trump has succeeded to accomplish and in terms of success. This is the way i look at the rest of the trump firstyear. Not improving relations with russia in ukraine or syria or has confronted putin with the electoral intervention in the United States as with most european countries. President trump for all his rhetoric has not stopped the north Korea Strategic advance President Trump has made no progress with the projection of Chinese Military strength into the South China Sea and has done very little with the chinese influence elsewhere around the globe despite the talk he has made no progress restraining iran from the persian gulf neither has he renegotiated the deal for improved the nuclear deal. President trump has made no progress in the middle east the go stations between the palestinians and the israelis. President trump has neither renegotiated nor terminated nafta but successfully alienated mexico and canada. Cap President Trump has cast aside americas leadership in terms of has failed to address americas overall trade deficit. If you look at those statistics by almost 11 1 2 of the percent of the first nine months of the trump administration, while President Trump has been president over the last 12 months, america is standing when americas in the world has plummeted. So a few weeks ago Shows Confidence around the world has plummeted by 75 and 70 in france only 22 of people around the globe think United States today can be relied upon to do the right thing in a crisis. In comparing American Leadership were Global Leadership roles to significantly behind confidence in germany and in china just a tiny bit above russia. Nonetheless to constitute a tragedy to say they should be worried. It is a radical departure from the policies and to make America Great after world war ii. So what does trump stand for . America first is protectionism. America first is immigration restriction and America First is i am american by american and America First is disdain with the bilateral institutions and alliances and to build up those capabilities and the nuclear arsenal. America first unilateralism in terms of american Foreign Policy. America first with the authoritarian leaders around the world and the philippines et cetera. That is what America First is. But what are the policies . Remember for a moment those policies that actually made America Great over two or three decades when was first promoting the open world and free trade to lower the tariffs champion that currency stability supporting multilateral institutions like the United Nations to champion democracy and selfdetermination and freedom of human rights although not always living up to those things but to champion those things what made America Great is to build alliances with likeminded countries to support the principles of collective security what made America Great is supporting the rule of law. What made America Great building up america as the p already but also seeking to control the arms race consistently. And to keep in mind a generalization that these are the policies among the great powers for the past 75 years do you know what an accomplishment that is . That is what made America Great to support policies that brought unprecedented and unanticipated prosperity to all of western europe and japan. And in the 1970s and 80s to places like south korea and taiwan and singapore and since the end of the cold war, the policies that have huge prosperity with china and india and vietnam. These are the policies to bring more people out of poverty in the last 40 years than in any comparable era in world history. Those are the things that made America Great so trumps first year has averted disaster that we need to worry about America First because it is based on the zerosum game of World Politics of the world and based on the strategy that actually brought world wars in the first part of the 20th century and repeated depression that is why the vast majority of Foreign Policy experts but the vast majority oppose the America First agenda because it is not the agenda that made America Great. So all of us, all americans americans have good reason to worry about the future. Thank you. [applause] we will now turn our attention to domestic policy over the last year for us. Good afternoon the goal was to welcome everyone today thinking this is the final event of the firstyear project and it has been an incredible road. And really to everybody who works here because this has been a team effort to bring the senator one the center together snuck out but it is great to have him here for this event but in any case as stephanie indicated my role is to think about trumps first year in the domestic arena. When you think of domestic policy over the last year with the chaos with the strong passions that trump is generated with that feeling the opportunity this year for specific and troubling reason and not to get another chance at that opportunity but that general overview so legislatively no significant achievements of tax cuts in december to appeal one repeal obamacare or to pasty infrastructure bill so by any definition was a big win but this really isnt much of a legislative return when you control the white house and both houses of congress. So particularly rolling back as much as he can. From Climate Change to immigration. There is a debate that were either newly implemented or not at all or actions of congress so it is inherently permanent the next president can reverse the executive action just as easily to reverse obamas actions. And to appoint those federal judges and with neil gore search to the Supreme Court i will say as an aside to be struck to make it a recent column that it comes from social conservatives and the policy wonks that are analyzing the effects of policy that are even critical in their assessments. I havent evaluated that person by person of who exactly is praising trump so what am i talking about . Whatever what anyone thinks of donald trump to highlight a crisis the feeling of the substantial segment of the polyp of the public has failed them their leaders no longer acted in the interest economic or cultural or regional. And with those motivations people have done that with a strongly held belief on the left that the nativist in those racial motivations that is part of it but there is more going on and in any case that multiple things can be true to evaluate those voters in a particular port choice of a specific election. The frustration and alienation with politics is the overarching reason trump eked out the Electoral College win. So my assessment one year ago he had an opportunity to address this phenomenon politically excellent have followed a different course that is not the fault of the republicans or the democrats but the president. So from my essay for the firstyear project with wending johnsons role in 1965 perhaps not with universal guidelines or with legislative agenda. You can find that in the lobby. [laughter] and the specifics with the policy and discipline can be a crucial factor of a firstyear legislative agenda. In between johnsons firstyear and that a striking and with the limitation specifically that inability to achieve a set of broader goals with that push towards those ends. But something to touch on in the interest in the nuance of policy. So the president compounded this problem and then to make up for its own deficit. Selfknowledge matters a lot. And then to have that agenda and then to become tied up the second result trump to 41 deferred to legislative priorities. Out of deference to pursue obamacare rather than to focus on infrastructure. With the critical firstyear mistake to put this permanently away with the core voters and infrastructure is key to seem like a strong vigorous president on the campaign trail. Following through on his promise and then to divide the democrats. But trump was unwilling or unable to challenge on the agenda and then to pursue their priorities for best interest. Once that appeal was lost they lost the vision. And so even that basic comprehensive issues to be so complicated. With the basic comprehension. And then not develop that viable replacement. And there is the thing. So with the Affordable Care act to the dilemma of the healthcare system. We can argue the details but the aca is a structure increasing coverage by border customers to private insurers or private companies and private businesses and expanding the 50yearold program that is run to the states. These used to be conservative principles once upon a time. With the bush administration. [laughter] a more sophisticated version of President Trump may have recognized for what it is to replace the individual mandate offer moderate adjustments grant more discretion to the states over costs control that was explained brilliantly and at that point to unleash trump to convince his voters and his base let him do what he does well. To declare victory and move onto the the next item in the agenda. Infrastructure would have done much more to feel that alienation. Also to the governing coalition to redefine those political moments i am aware of a possible contradiction that hasnt acted in a substantive manner to address the core problem of alienation. But politics is not working. But when we look at the full record it is the tragic aspect of the first year. And with that identity projection that agrees that. Joey james coney and more and against all that they do not like. With those shameful remarks august 11 and 12. Where those immigrants should come from. The choice act as a president with anger but not to address those substantive issues leading to his election. And to deploy that leadership style to encourage division among the public. The result is mostly loyal and angry and also to determine to be motivated and a permanent opposition. Most notably maybe the biggest outcome of the first year. And the strategic choice to be further divided and perhaps in part in the early months of year to although they are highly problematic do you suggest a refocusing on Economic Issues . And to be a transformative president it depended on the firstyear and it is now almost certainly gone. Thank yo. [applause] stomach finally weve all turned to Mary Kate Cary i have to remark to give the shameless plug for the new podcast i was sent to the First Episode this morning it is fantastic and is available on itunes. I will second what was said earlier that i arrived at the Miller Center as a fellow just as the firstyear project was launching it has been an absolute joy and what i thought i would do is in august of 2016 with the changing media landscape and how the next white house could capitalize on that and then talk about how that has been in for that over the course of the first year. So what i have found in augus august 2016 much of the news content comes to us through newsfeeds referring to us by friends and filtered preferences and browsers and personal relationships. That is very different from how news is coming to us from five years ago. With my recommendation that is a naive but optimistic recommendation but for example that the next white house should prioritize those outlets. [laughter] so to say we should emphasize traditional news outlets because that would emphasize the need for those policies and initiatives because you two and snapshot snap chat but with deep analysis to have media that is true this year. A smart move to increase, not decrease and then to have fewer and fewer instances. And the strategic mistake with those outlets. And to expand the number of seats in the White House Press office for local media to participate on a rotating basis that is very smart because more and more americans turn to local media as a more trusted news source. And Administration Officials who won the election to provide content with those platforms in those videos of the longform writing more and more people read articles and essays by peoples whose name is next to their work. If there is something you like to be interested in as trustworthy. There was a lot of people posting behind the scene photos. And Live Streaming on facebook to match that content you wouldnt have a longform essay with the youtube essay match the medium to the message and the last thing i recommended that that spontaneity with that talking point on the teleprompter is wildly popular. That was a year and a half ago. But trust in government was extremely low and i think the best thing the white house can do is to reach as Many Americans as possible that are not necessarily visitors to the white house website so how do you find them to get your message . How do you get your supporters to share your message and in many ways and with that Public Outreach and Coalition Building and it is not traditional by the nature of the personality and through that essay to do some research how has it changed since the election in terms of political news and communications . And you have the statistics it is called the cocktail crasher and makes you drop your drink. [laughter] and oz a august 2017 reporting of getting their news online only 7 of portland Percentage Points lawyer will work and get them on television in 201619. Gap between those platforms that has increased at the sevenpoint gap so those who are watching television more and more are getting on their computer or on their phones to get their news. Mobile devices are preferred nearly two thirds of adults get the news both on local and on a computer excuse me are increasing 56 . 74 of people on twitter get this news from there so, big picture, in the United States, we have a record high in terms of the number of people getting news from social media. Whether people trust that news is another question. But we are not number one in the world. Were number one in terms of the percentage of our older population getting this news off social media and we are number one number two for getting their news online. That is all courtesy of pugh. The other thing that struck me in this research was that, as i said earlier, were not number one in the world for the percentage of people who get their news from social media. Ahead of us in terms of advanced industrialized economies, south korea, canada, australia, and sweden, all have higher percentage of their population getting news from social media. South korea, 20 more south koreans than americans are using social media several times a day. That is shocking to me. Amongst emerging and developing country, the following countries more people getting news off lebanon, argentina, vietnam, turkey, chile and brazil. South korea is at the top. 57 . What this shes me is that there is a tremendous opportunity in the coming year for President Trump to use his global rereach because obviously more people in other countries who have access to President Trumps twitter feed than americans are using. So far i think most people would say that his use of twitter has been divisive and at teams very polarizing, but if he were to change the tone of it, he could do tremendous good in terms of changing americas image abroad and i think thats a tremendous opportunity for him in the coming year. As you look at what i would call the difference between teleprompter trump and twitter trump, im a former speech writer for george h. W. Bush, and the difference to me is quite jarring at times. I did a little research. Something called Trump Twitter archive. Com on the internet and it has all of the tweets he has ever done since taking office. He has issued roughly 2500 tweets over the last year. And on this Trump Twitter archive you can type in words to see how many tweets had those words. The most i could find was under fake news, 153 times. 98 in second place, russia. And then there are a number of other words that are various number three that i not substantive but i think its funny because its become a catch phrase in our house, is sad, exclamation point, and he finds things that as varied as the oscars, football playoffs, whether bob beckle should be on fox news, Global Warming and the russian investigation. So, if you want to see the lighter side of trumps twitter feed, google sad put this is affecting his approval ratings, 16 of americans say trumps use of twitter was appropriate. So the majority think its not appropriate. By the end of his first year in office, the hi reported he has spent 40 hours on twitter if you took the time for the 2500 tweets. A staggering 59 of the polled say they disapproved othe President Trumps nearly daily tweets to 45 million followers if think he is not going to get off twitter. I think he realizes that this is a direct pipeline that he will not wake away from and a bigger following on twitter than the number of people who watch the night any husband anymore. General kelly, his chief of staff, was asked about this and at last week it was how he has at times undermind his legislative strategy by going on tritter and contradicting whatever the white house strategy is. General kelly responded, he often asked me, im thinking of reinforcing whatever the message is with a tweet. What do you think . General kelly would say, absolute limit sometimes he doesnt ask me that. Doesnt have to ask me that. He is his own man and feel verdict strongly he is able to reach the American People out in peoria and montana and central wyoming through this tweets because he does not feel that he is getting a completely fair shake from the media. And i think most observers, at least on my side of the aisle, would say that they can understand why he thinks he is not getting a fair shake. So my hope as a speech writer is that his tweets will start to parallel his rhetoric in his speeches and his legislative agenda. Despite the best efforts of he his speech writing staff who are doing a very good job, i think theres tremendous opportunity in the coming year for him to try and build coalitions and as mike noted, theres an opportunity not just to solidify his base but to expand it, to change peoples minds, and to broaden the governing majority in this country. So i think this coming year, given these numbers, hold tremendous opportunity for him if he chooses to take it. So on that note, i guess well take questions. Thank you. [applause] well, we throw it out 0 audience q a but i want to press on one piece of your essay, and i need to read this because i just found it. Its striking. When talking about the changes in technology and the fact that more and more americans are getting taking news from not just the internet but using their mobile devices increasingly. She notes itself wants to win, its first year the next white house must master trend from the start in order to build trust and support among voters. If not, the new administration risks being left behind by the increasingly media savvy electorate. So, im curious, mary kate, in an excerpt where you note that the white house must master trends that both build trust and support among voters, how do you position trump here . Because in one regard, as you note, he has mastered this. Mastered the use of special media. Knows that would say. He knows who he is talking to. But on the other hand, what is the effect on public trust and. I would have to say the whole fake news phenomenon is not surprising to me because the numbers have been there for a long time. Trump is not necessarily the cause of this. In some ways he is the symptom it. Eroding public trust in the media has started before he ever came on the scene. The same pew research i was citing on social media use does touch on Peoples Trust in traditional news sources, and the u. S. This is fascinating to me the u. S. Is one of the few countries now where the governing Party Supporters are less satisfied with the news media than are nonsupporters, so in this country that would mean republicans only 21 of republicans feel the news media covers politics fairly. 55 of democrats believe that the media covers issues fairly. That is the largest partisan gap in the world two other countries where the governing party mistrusts more than the nongoverning party. The second country is israel which is understandable to me. Australia is the third. And those are the only three. The striking number of news sources that are trusted, local media is the highest. National News Coverage second, friends and family, third. Social media . Those are all in the 70s and so personal of people who trust them. Social media, only 5 of those polled trust the information from social media. Last year it was 4 . So they leaped from 4 to 5 in one year. So that is shockingly low, and i think that explains why he thinks its okay to continually pound the fake news, naming reports by name, naming networks by name. Thought the fake news awards was ill advise of sized and glad it came from the Republican Party instead of from the white house but i did not think that was helping things for either of them to be doing it, but certainly for the president and the middle of the Government Shutdown to be worrying. That i thought was misplaced. In the interest of time well open up to audience q a. So alfred has a mic in his hand and if you have a question for the panel, please raise your hand and lets take well take two questions at a time, and wait, please, for alfred to come with the mic. So well start up here. Host this. This is really a question for miss mckey if completely believe trumps failure to delivering on infrastructure is deplorable and not for all of, deferred maintenance of bridges and roads atticking time bomb. Well have another bridge collapse. But in terms of the base, the other night i heard a union boss on television i had been from illinois who talked about the promise lo cane er, very d promise on carrier, an austen day shoes trump putting of trumps success in per wading care youre stay and that particular company has again and fired put Something Like 500 people out of work. But what was interesting to me in light of your comment is that he didnt talk about trumps failure to come through on infrastructure. He talked about trumps failure to keep American Companies at home and keep them from going abroad. So i wonder is that comment, do you think, an outlier or does it represent the feels . Because he was specifically being asked whether the trump voters were disappoint by his performance in that respect. Yeah, i dont think its probably is an probably is an outlier. I think that i wrote a little bit about the carrier episode when it happened, i guess a year and a half ago 2016. And my sense then and now is that it was an effective shortterm strategy . The sense of, oh, wow, he actually jawboned this company into keeping these jobs and is really delivering for us. But that is not something that can be sustained for one company, let alone across the economy. And the other aspect is particularly when we talk about manufacturing jobs. The force here that are just bigger than any president , and to put that much focus on your capacity to retain a particular sector of employment that faces huge head winds is a very risky move, and you can the upside is that he can claim every good jobs decision that happens, but in terms of that specific, fairly low to medium skilled manufacture, its going to be really hard to sustain that in the United States, regardless of who the president is, and even in a position where i think for people like your union members, theres an expectation he would deliver on that, at least to a degree and that hurt him. Right up front. You say that trump has mastered social media. The only thing ive seen him do a lot of is twit tweets. That was intentional. Im sorry. But i dont see him doing much in any of the other social media, certainly not facebook or well issue dont know what all the others are but i know i havent seen him on any others. Could you speak to that. Lets take another question before we im sorry i jumped the gun. Thats kea. Lets go to barbara and then bill. Thank you to all of you for your amazing comments today. They say the old adan you never get a Second Chance to make a First Impression so President Trumps, unless they have these oddities where the come in and carry out a an expresident s term usually dont get a Second Chance to have a first year. We know we have the state of the Union Address coming up soon. To our four presenters today, if this president called you into the oval office and mary kate would have had an experience like this but the president called you interest the oval office and asks you, what should i say to the American People, what one thing use you tell me to say to the American People in this upcoming state of the union . What would you tell him . Okay. Twitter. Lets start with the twitter question. Completely agree with you that its been overwhelmingly on twitter that he has been active in social media, and again, a missed opportunity to use these other platforms to reach the people who never go on to white house. Gov, and that to me i understand him wanting to do things differently than obama, and rolling back the obama agenda, but there were tactics that obama used that it think trump would be wise to follow up on. For example, on the white house web site, the Obama Administration had a individualolgrapher that followed the president everywhere, and had behind the scenes videos, and photos and thing theyd would post on this white house blog, and they were all kinds of people who would write on the white house blog who were various surrogate ford different policiesing. Somebody from the Labor Department rite writhing about unemployment, and gave reports a place to go, people too share things and that seems to have stopped. I went on the white house web site and couldnt find dish think the white house blog has stopped, and i wanted for this presentation to talk about the speeches that the president had given, to talk about he difference enbetween the number of speech he has given and the number of tweets, and on the white house web site, speeches are no longer separate as a thing that you can click on and School Scroll enthusiasm says statements and papers or Something Like that. You click on it, speeches are, mid. In its 186 pages long. You have to good pagebypage looking for anything hissed as a speech if thought theres got to be a faster way. Shoot my friend an email on the speechwriting staff and i a can you tell me how many speeches the president gave and the wrote back and said, sorry, we dont have that. And i thought, how can nobody be taking count of that . So, theyre doing things differently from the Obama Administration, and i certainly disagreed with many of the Obama Policies but i also think there are some tactics they used that im surprised got stopped. And i think theres an opportunity to bring those back and try to reach the people outside of his base and start, is a said, changing minds and broadening the coalition. Mike, what would you say about the state of the union. As far as trump relying on twitter, i think two advantages he derive from that as opposed to doing facebook and doing white house gov and all the other things one could do. That is you know where to look to find out what donald trump thinks. You dont have to go from one site to another. Twitter is the way he is going into express his thoughts and the shore, punching, 140 character, 280 charged, whatever it, its short and that seems to be a medium in which he is very comfortable. The quick punch or counterpunch. So, i dont blame him for doing what he is most comfortable doing, and making it simple for people to find out where he is. As far as the state of the union, great question, brother perry. Last year he gave a state of the union which most people thought was like a regular state state f Union Address that a regular president would give and people were commending him for that. In coming days, as if he just got bored with being praised for that sort of quality, it was bang, bang, bang, tweet about this and that and the other thing if think the advice i would give is, first of all, know what your agenda is for the coming year. This is an annual speech. Meant to kind of set the agenda for congress and the rest of the government for an extended period of so know what you want to accomplish during the coming here, and then dont just give the speech but give the speech as part of a coordinated strategy of articulating the message and then reinforcing the message. That takes a kind of reins in of runs own tendency toes do what trump does every day and that it is get up in the morning, turn on the cable news talk, reaction to it, and the reaction is to go straight from here to this right index finger to his phone to us. And because its reactive, what he seize or hears on fox and friends or morning joe or whatever, its not part of a coordinated effort to not only articulate a message but to reinforce that message in subsequent days. Something else. The praise that donald trump gave for his state of the Union Address was kind of the praise you give for, like, your eightyearold grandson who draws a picture and you say, oh, thats so beautiful. When donald trump gives a speech from a teleprompter, its so obvious hes just reading from a teleprompter, right . This is not something he is comfortable doing. So in addition to twitter, i think his main form of communication with the American People is to have these Campaign Style rallies in states he carried in the election, and i dont even know if he has a text but if he has a text, its just there to i dont know why its there because its stream of consciousness, and he feeds off the support of his crowd, mass twitter. Twitter is not his effort to reach out to the people who dont support him. Nor are this speeches. His communications are to solidify the base, that he already has, and in that sense i think he is he start out with 46 on election day. He had no honeymoon period, which was in part his fault and also in part the democrats fault, and then it sort of got down below 40, and then since then its been pretty flat. So people chose up sides really early the Trump Presidency. Whether they were for or against him and what he has done so far, at least again in he absence of crisis, to n the absence of recession, who knows what will happen when those type of events occur, which are bound. To but consolidating that 35 to 39 is something he has been able to do, and thats enough. That is enough to keep the republicans in congress scared enough that they dont do what they would like to do frankly, and that is defy him and get mike pence in there, but theyre afraid to do that because they know that the voters who will pass judgment on them in a primary election 5 of the whole country but theyre 70 of the people who vote in the republican primary. So as long as he can keep that base solidified, which he is doing through twitter and through these stream of consciousness rally style speeches, he is probably okay for the coming year. But, boy, these midterm elections in november, may the most consequential in history. I he loses the Republican Congress heir loses the Republican Senate when and still loses, which is conceivable. You go statebystate, that could happen. I suspect that republicans in congress will smell blood in the water and head for the exits. Thats getting way ahead. Well come back next year, right . Trumps second year. To mel do you have anything to add . If he called me id say Something Like, mr. President , i know you love the attention of the American People, and i know a quick way for you to garner support amongst 60 of the american population. Tell them you are going to step down immediately. [laughter] seriously, though, if he really did call me lets say he really did call me. I would say because i know stephanie you think its likely he will otherwise you wouldnt have asked this barbara wouldnt have asked this profound question if it wouldnt happen. Would say you should say to the American People that it know my first year has been deeply divisive, and i know that americas prestige has been reduced around the world, i think those things are very unfortunate. Im dedicated. Im going dedicate this new year to redressing these trends and this is what im going to do, a, b, c. , d, e. , thats what i would tell him to do. You know when he doesnt like what he is hearing, he ends it immediately. Mel, if you can get that into a tweet he might see it. So, at our panel last week, we asked mark short, who is President Trumps legislative director, if he had any hints for us on what the president might say in the state of the union, and he said, yes, it will be infrastructure and immigration would be the big parts of the speech. So as far as my personal advice goes, though, i agree with you, mike, he is uncomfortable on a teleprompter. In general, his speeches are not the problem. He has really not gotten in trouble for anything in this speeches unless he adlibs. The u. N. He had robert man he adlibbed into the speech. The speech writers are giving him material that is very good and very standard republican issue rhetoric, but you can tell from this delivery he is not crazy about being on a teleprompter and so to those end i would suggest that the speech be as short as possible. His speech last year was one hour on the dot. That was shorter than the trend over the last few president s has been longer and longer state of the Union Addresses and yet as we saw in the research, fewer and fewer people are watching television. So i think in order to meet the audience writ is i would keep it shorter, with a shorter Attention Span of the people who are watching. Southbound i would say most writers the fun part of the speech is writing shameless applause lines, and trying to see how many times you can get people in the room to stand up and give a standing ovation. The partisan signed of doing that is to get one side to stand up and get the other side to sit on their hand. If youre being public spirited and unifier, you would want as many times as possible where both sides stood up, and so i would say in these polarized times we would want as main applause lines as possible where both sides would stand up, and the fun part also of the state of the union for me is i believe great speeches are made of Great Stories and the only way to get some stories into the state of the union are those people who sit up with the first lady in the gallery, and some president s in the past have used those as an opportunity to score political opinions and have people in the seats that illustrate their partisan agenda. The better ones, i thick if youre as old as i am and remember lenny cut nick, diving into the Potomac River. The first one president reagan died, and he was a civilian, a First Responder and saved lives diving into the cold Potomac River and pulling people out and we have had a tremendous number after natural disasters this year, where Everyday Americans have done heroic things, and those are the kind of people i would put in the galley this year so everybody in the room can salute them and stand upping to and its an opportunity to be unifying and draw on what is great but our country. One thing about when i was a kid, if the president gave a speech on television, well, there was nothing else on. Right . Three networks, all showing the president. Over time, think about the coming of cable, you didnt have to watch broadcast network with the president. You can watch espn or whatever, and then along comes i remember video cass set players, you other could put in a movie or son and since then the audience that the president has been able to command just by giving that kind of speech or any kind of speech, has gone down, which to he me is fascinating about donald trump because getting our attention has not been his problem. Right . We cable news essentially went trump all the time during the campaign, not because of any sort of political agenda but because they saw their ratings going up and therefore their advertising revenues going up, and it hasnt stopped. Political scientists, oh, President Trump, gave serious speech and then reinforce your points. Thats the kind of thing we dont watch. Frankly. We watch the day of the speech, endure the fact the president gives a long policy speech and then what basketball player will he attack through twitter or Something Like. That then weve got were back on his wave length. This is a guy who is 71 years old. Im 68 so i kind of know where that its like. Hes been successful certainly in his own mind but by most measures hes been successful at everything he has done, Business World, entertain world, and then he runs for president , first entry level job for him. This is not a guy who is going to change his ways no matter how good our advice is. Hes just not. So, i think we got accept that the likelihood that he is going to grow the office, will make the man or learn on the job, this is the guy we elected and he hasnt changed one bit. The last word. Ill keep it brief. I dont think an election is ever won or lost in the state of the Union Address and i dont think this one, either. Guess i would say similar to mel that he should think through his strategy really over the next three years, he trying to motivate that and sustain that base or is he trying to reach out a little more to broaden it . And the speech should reflect that choice. I agree with that. Thank you all. Bill has one thing to add. But please join news he anteroom outside. Mike, jeff and i will be signing books so feel free to join us. I wanted to close by just giving a lot of thanks to a lot of people that were involved in this, and in addition to all of the people here. I think every scholar contributed. Everybody on our communications team, our development team, our administrative team, this has been ruly an all Miller Center project and its been terrific to see the whole team working together and that extends the ging council we created a first year Advisory Counsel for the project that mary kate was part oft. A Bipartisan Team of former Administration Officials from both democratic and republicans administration, kind of like noahs ark. And then jeff in the back and stephanie really played air traffic control, and then the last programming note is people have been asking, what comes after first year and its not second year. What were going to be launching here in two weeks or a week and a half on february 5th, is our new research undertaking which will take us forward for the next three years or so, and were calling it presidency the crossroads and will look back across president ial history at great moments, the founder years, jackssonnan and civil war era and the 20th century periods like the progressives and world war i, the Great Depression and world war ii, and the 60s, how civil rights and vietnam and in the current moment where big domestic challenges couple up with Big International challenges that face the president and how different president s have reimagined the office, for better or worse, how theyve taken the path theyre on and then considered turning right, turning left or just continuing to go straight or maybe sometimes making a our turn so were calling it presidency at the crossroad and were kicking that off on february 5th. Well one with he was there when George Washington was president , actually jim covering the presidency goes back to november 22, 1963, when he was a street reporter in dallas and was there at love field when president kennedys plane planted and that began a career where he covered every president since and were delighted to jim lehrer walk through the Big Decisions he has seen in this lifetime and across president ial history. So join us on the Late Afternoon of february 5th. I want to thank the panel and thank you. See you in the back room signing books. [applause] [inaudible conversations] heres a look deupcoming become fairs and festival happening around the country coming up next on after words, former white house speech writer and atlantic columnist, david from, argues the Trump Presidency is damaging american democracy. He is interviewed by weapons weapons book critic, carlos lozada. After words is a weekly Interview Program with represent guest hosts interviewing top nonfiction authors about their latest