Events. Before we get started i ask that you please silent your mobile devices and cell phones. Please note this conference is open to the press and it is being webcast live and being recorded. The comments from the stage of all the speakers, panelists and moderators are all on the record. As theme for the conference this year is achieving advantage and we will attempt to provide insight on how america can continue to achieve strategic advantage to address current and future global challenges. Our opening keynote speaker today is someone who daily looks at, addresses and is at the heart of National Security challenges. As director of the Central Agency mike pompeo manages intelligence collections analysis, covert actions, counterintelligence and critical liaison relationships with foreign Intelligence Services. Dci pompeo was sworn in as director on january 203rd, 2017. Before becoming the cia he served four terms as a member of congress and came to his position as director with a solid understanding of the role cia plays in National Security as a member of the House Permanent Select Committee on intelligence. It is my great privilege and great pleasure to introduce our keynote speaker, the director of the Central Intelligence agency, mike pompeo. [applause] thank you, frank. Good morning everyone. I know you are all looking forward to the Panel Discussions that are about to get underway so i will be brief. I do want to say a few words about the subject that brings us together today and that is the profession of intelligence. I want to talk to a few minutes about what it means to practice that profession in todays world, a world that is marked by speed, adaptability and constant change. Lets imagine for a moment that an agency operative is traveling on foot right now to the streets of a gritty foreign capital, dodging surveillance while on a critical mission. The officer is tracking an adversary that moves with lightning speed and for a moment an opportunity presents itself, an opportunity to spell the difference between success and failure of a critical mission. Between the success of collecting Vital Information on a hostile target. If the officer hesitates the window will slam shut and the chance will be gone. In fact, in a few hours, in a faraway place halfway across the world night will fall and officers who worked for the Central Intelligence agency will put their life on the line working with our Partner Forces to accomplish a National Security mission on behalf of the United States of america. Hard many women working in hard places on hard missions. You no, our officers find themselves in those places in great because he and i consider it when a mighty response abilities as the director of the cia to make sure they are empowered to seize that very moment to make sure they have the authority, the teammates and tools and support to take action. Speed and agility have long been the heart of good intelligence work but they have never been as critical as they are today. This is true across every facet of our mission, weather operations, analysis, support, science, technology and the digital realm. In each place the rate of change matters and we must keep up with it. Many of our adversaries today are incredibly nimble and they are viciously fast when deciding how they are going to attack america. That poses immense challenges for institutions charged with helping our government to keep them. The size and complexity of our government along with the need to coordinate efforts across organizational lines and operating in a democracy make it hard for us sometimes to move as quickly as we would like. In fact, i was attending a meeting a couple months back and we were doing planning with the Senior Leaders and i was asked by our adversary if they took a particular action how or if we took a particular action our adversary might respond. We had been at this meeting for some time and i said well they sure as heck wont have a meeting like this. Not everyone laughed but i meant it. Our adversaries do not spend a lot of time on process. Instead of talking about what they do, they go ahead and do it and that gives them a big advantage. But is not insurmountable. There are things our government can do to shorten our time of response, separates the moment from which we conceive an idea that we are able to put it into action. For the cia one the most important ways to do this is to have faith in our workforce. Our officers and our National Treasure have more than enough talent,s courage and talent to do what they need is the freedom to carry it out. We need to remove bureaucratic barriers that prevent them from taking swift and aggressive action. I am not talking about action that exceeds their authority and not advocating for reckless freelancing, quite the contrary. We believe in review but we cannot tolerate her aiming to achieve our mission redundant review. Every step and every person should add value to the process. As a large Government Organization illuminating barriers is a neverending challenge. One of my predecessors serving on one of the panels today noted that the problem during his tenure as cia director under president george w. Bush. Compared to what he saw as a young officer in the 1960s he was struck by how much bureaucracy had grown up around the cias mission. He likened the bureaucracy to bureaucratic layers to virginia creeper vines and i think of it more as a kansas perry grass. But he said unless this was hacked away and bureaucracy was being back or threatened to stifle the good work that we need to do. Porter and many of my predecessors did admirable work to cut back those fines and im honored to continue their efforts. They recognize the need to reduce the deficits on process unleashing in the awesome talent that has defined the cia since its very founding. The truth is in our blood in our culture and its a tradition that goes back to world war ii and our agencies predecessors at oss. The cia director William Casey pitt he said [inaudible] you gambled that it might and you did it. More recently we have seen that agility and ethics. After the attacks of 911. Only 15 days after the towers fell, cia for the First American boots on the ground in afghanistan acting on orders from president bush. Think about that. Only 15 days the cias leadership didnt gather to look at proposals and they didnt think the president or send him with a recommendation, it acted. On day 15 an agent he was already stepping out of a helicopter in northeastern afghanistan, hauling a crate of weapons in a suitcase of cash and taking the fight to the taliban and al qaeda. The agency speed and agility are ingrained into who we are, its in our dna. We look for it in the young people that we recruit. For me it is not a question of recreating a culture that isnt there but clearing away things to get in our officers way and restrain them. It is about enabling the culture to . The challenges of today require nothing less. Change is a defining trait of our contemporary life. Most organizations across every discipline i can think of are under tremendous pressure to respond immediately to challenges that come their way and that holds true for University Like the ones we are at today. I iran in Aerospace Company before i was in congress. After the attacks of 911 demand for all things aerospace plummeted in our business was devastated. What saved us was acting quickly and aggressively. We cut cost, overhauled our Business Plan and we survived. We defeated our competitors. That crisis taught me that good analysis and quick decisionmaking matter an awful lot. Immediate action to save our companies and hundreds of jobs in families that depended on our success. Government is tough to move that fast sometimes and for one thing the feedback loop is slower. In the private sector, you know right away whether you are being outpaced by your competitors, customers stop by your product, profits dry up and before you know it the board of directors is knocking on your door asking how you will fix it. Then the bureaucratic impediments that inevitably crop up in government and it is not the people are trying to gum up the works with red tape, red tape just happens in government. It often starts with the best good intentions and it can sometimes add value and reduce the chance of error and the idea, of course, is to risk risk but there is a cost to every one of those things and each of those process as its own former risk. If mechanisms are already in place to guide the effort to reduce this bureaucracy we need to make sure that we dont create a second one at the cia. You no, this risk of the absence of agility and speed is a price that our agency cant afford to pay and one that america cannot afford either. With each passing year the pace of global events accelerates and does so as policymakers and the president are getting more and more on the product and the work that the cia performs for information, for insight and for options. We cannot begin to meet the needs of President Trump and the National Security team if we allow our great strength, speed and agility, to whether to neglect. We must have the power to become more quicker, more flexible and in short, make sure that we can move at the speed with our mission demands. You will get a chance to hear from some of the fine officers that work as part of my team and i know that every one of them has heard me say this over and over. We have to be better, faster and more responsive and if youre in a process and not any value, get out of the way. We are surging forward on several fronts in this regard. More specifically, first, as i said, were impressing on every officer and the need to push decisions to the lowest level that has a Value Proposition for being involved in the process. When it comes to our operations outside of the United States we want the leaders of our stations and stations to call the shots to the maximum extent possible. If the need to consult with us here at headquarters we want them to coordinate with those who know the most about the issue and with no one who doesnt need to be involved in the process. If it is a tactical issue that is rarely me or anyone in my Senior Leadership team for that matter. I have confidence in them that they have good judgment and have been trained well and they understand the commanders intent and know the rule of law and they know how to prosecute our efforts against our adversaries. We have to make sure that those decisions are made by officers closest to the issue at hand. After all, they almost always have a firmer grasp on the details and they should therefore be the ones leading the way. This is certainly true of all of our endeavors. Including those related to our most difficult missions. Second, we have endeavored to streamline decisionmaking and our Mission Centers and organizational framework. We are trying to reduce the number of people who sign off in review proposals and the question is always are they speeding things up and adding value for are they simply deadweight loss. The result i expect will be the ability for the cia to be faster and more rigorous, both at the same time. Third, we are investing in technology. Our ability to collect intelligence today far outstrips our capacity to process it. The volume of information is simply too great, too overwhelming to be absorbed and synthesized by the human brain. We need technological help and of course, really smart operatives can come up with brilliant insight but we have to have tools to help them zero in on the really important stuff. Finally, we are sending more of our teams to the field and that is where our adversaries are training and that is where they are preparing to take america down. That is where our partners are providing safer and more prosperous world. In short, its where our mission is in the closer we can get to the center of it, the point our people, tools and resources into the heart of the fight, the more quickly we will engage those who threaten us and the more likely we will keep america safe. And the more likely we will quickly crush our adversaries. If you do all these things well, and i know our officers will hit it out of the park, we will carry our Mission Forward with the fighting spirit of our predecessors at the oss. We will safeguard our nation. Before i turn things over to frank, i want to say a few words about the panels and the conference agenda. Before i do that, i also want to think George Washington university, cia office for Public Affairs and everyone who put this conference together, i thank you all for being here. I especially want to think thomas, the new president here at gw for hosting us on his campus. We are deeply grateful to frank for serving as rmc and organizing todays proceedings. He is keenly aware of the unique challenges that face the Central Intelligence agency. You will hear some of this today or more properly there will be some things you dont hear today discussing sensitive world of intelligence in a public forum is always tricky but its a thousand times easier when we are partners like frank and so i deeply appreciate the work he has done. The theme of our conference this year is achieving strategic advantage in the timing couldnt be more fitting. Exactly 60 years ago today the soviet Union Launched Sputnik into space stunning the public, but not american leaders. Cias office and previously informed eisenhower about soviet planning to launch an earth satellite providing him with the strategic advantage he needed to guide our nations response. Later today cia will be releasing a declassified article about our work on the sputnik along with hundreds of pages of related documents of the historians tell the story. You will be able to find it on a public website cia. Gov. It is now time to begin the panel discussion. Students of espionage and National Security, leaders are in for a great treat today. Each of the panelists today is an expert in their field who not only have the issues inside out but know how to talk about them and talk about the intelligence nature of what they do and they will do so, i expect, with clarity and sophistication that you will appreciate. I hope that you wont limit our discussions to the bright shiny objects making headlines because we will try to delve in deeper. We will get at the heart of what is driving some of the most complex issues facing, not only the world but our profession, the profession of intelligence. We will also discuss the challenges connecting espionage and transparent and interconnected world and in doing so under the rule of law. Then we will have a real treat. We will convene a panel of fascinating former cia members. It should be a memorable day full of informed discussions and lively debate and i wish i could stay for the whole thing but i am headed for the white house here shortly. I have a long list of work to do with my team, to keep us all safe. The president is an avid consumer as is the entire cabinet in which i served and i know he is grateful for the intelligence professionals were here today both present and former. Thank you all for your service. For all the work that so many of you have done over the world to protect our country. Thank you all and i hope that you enjoyed the conference and now i will turn it back over to frank. Thank you and have a great day. [applause] thank you, director pompeo. Thank you for your Incredible Service and things for insuring your providing the leadership to the men and women we lead. Thank you for that. The director just spoke to the need for speed, and agility and constant change when it comes to the profession of intelligence. Im reminded of all the movies growing up, james bond, and i never saw him once go out a form but obviously there are forms that need to be filled out in our adversaries dont adhere to the same schools. All of our panelists today will deal with the three things that we just heard, speed, and ability, and constant change and the benefit and sometimes the consequences that may accompany them. Before i kick off the first panel i want to express my gratitude and thanks for the staff at the cias office of Public Affairs. Public affairs in cia dont often go in the same sentence but let me tell you they are phenomenal, most professional group i had the privilege of working with over the years. And to my own staff at gw center for cyber and homeland security, for all the effort that goes into planning for this conference. I also want to thank all of our panelists for sharing their thoughts and expertise today. With a few ground rules and information to share with all of you before our first panel takes the stage. You are allowed to take photos of speakers on the stage but request you do not take photos of your fellow audience members. Food and drink are not permitted inside the auditorium but you are welcome to bring in bottled water. Each panel today will have a discussion and a q a portion. For questions please line up at the microphone placed throughout the auditorium. In consideration of other speakers time and all those attending the conference i encourage you to be precise and ask pointed questions directly relevant to the panels topic. If i have to be a tyrant, i will. Lets get started. Experts on the first panel will tackle the vexing problem posed by north koreas official launches in nuclear program. Chinas move in the south china see, critical Economic Issues in the icus role in providing strategic advantage to policymakers advancing us interests in the region. To discuss this topic we have an Amazing Group of experts with many, many years of expertise in the asiapacific region. Our moderator jim should go watering the panel and quickly to list off the speakers, Michael Collins is the Deputy Assistant director of the cia for east asia mission center, ambassador who is the board of managers at the National Labs is to work in the field for years. [inaudible] Deputy Assistant director for three and mission center, please welcome them to the stage. Gentlemen, over to you. [applause] thank you, frank. This is an ideal opportunity for me to be surrounded by these smart brains on china. Im sure i will enjoy this as much as you do. Id like to begin obviously on north korea and michael, i wonder if i could put you on the spot here because theres a lot of rhetoric where im going around in both directions about military options and outside of that theres a lot of analysis and warnings and fears of imminent conflict on the Korean Peninsula. I wonder if you could describe for us in your view what is the danger today of military conflict over in north korea. Thanks. Look, i think the issue that we are discussing this morning is right now the most the intersection between right now, in my view, immediate National Security threat the United States and our partner states and at the same time the most strategic challenge which is the management of chinas rise in asia. I think we have to think about that diagnostic when we think about this and the National Security problem what we do in the intelligence business to diagnose and bring that about and help to address it. North korea is obviously trying to establish itself as a recognized Nuclear State and this leader can jungle is focusing on his stability and security at home and we are wrestling with another country, northeast asia problem, not just the Korean Peninsula problem how what kind of relationship china wants with the United States. China itself is wrestling with the concerns about instability and at the same time its trying to establish a stable relationship of the United States. We are concerned, its a serious issue but i want to impress upon everyone here that to us its not just in immediate National Security threat but forcing us to think about the Longterm Management of china in the northeast asia pacific theater. I know that china is essential to this Going Forward but in the media space and maybe just for the audiences comfort what is your level of concern or nervousness that the back and forth could escalate into a military exchange . In my view, and ill defer to some of our other experts here but berkeley is testing the tolerance of the United States and the International Community to manage its increasingly provocative behavior aimed at further establishing itself as a recognized nuclear and missile our state. Yes, with each increasing escalation they are raising the threshold for the United States and others to accept or press back against that. I expect that if this continues, tensions will continue. You los left it here and i tk this is not accurate but can jungle is a crazy man. Hes in a rational actor. Is he in fact irrational or is he a rational actor of north korea . I think he is a very rational and this ties back to your question earlier about the potential conflict. The last person who one conflict in the what was can jungle. He is what all of 13 rulers want assad and they want to rule for a long time and die peacefully in his own bed. That is a tendency in this country and everywhere else to underestimate the conservatism that runs in these totalitarian states. Thats the greatest Circuit Breaker in any conflict. Rhetoric aside, kim jongun has no interest in going toe to toe with combined forces of our command and thats not conducive to his longevity and rule and people say he will show credibility but north korea leads are not interested in getting their faces on a deck of cards in case of [inaudible]. Without beyond the bluster, hes a rational actor and i think his longterm goal is very clear. Its been clear for the history of the kim family regime to remove and come to their power with the United States and remove forces on the peninsula. I recently use the analogy that north korea is like a prizefighter who is in the corner and just needs a little break to get back on its feet, maybe not all the way back to the glory days of the 1970s when people talk about the korean miracle theyre talking about north korea but take it stepbystep and get themselves back in the fight. They want to be relevant again. Its a rational longterm goal for prospective. Im going to ask you a question that i am often asked in my job and ensure this might be on the minds of many folks in the audience. Is there an actual risk at the moment, which appears imminent, if north korea is able to marry a miniaturized Nuclear Warhead with an intercontinental ballistic missile, is it conceivable that north korea would fire that at the us or would that be purely a last resort and, you no, already escalated military conflict . Since out of the blue attack and once again can jungle and being a rational actor wouldnt conducive to his regime interest and longevity and ads for the threat i think strategically the weapons is threatening the us and its a poison and on the Korean Peninsula. At the end of the day, his politics are local. I think, if you look at their goals it is clear that the icbms and you take it to the next up why would he want to threaten the us, probably because he wants to keep us out of the [inaudible] ambassador, you were a special representative to the north korean talks under the george w. Bush presidency you have been involved in negotiations with north korea. You speak and i speak for instance to [inaudible] is one of the public voices saying that we have sitdown with north korea, things on the table and they have to be, for instance, pledge for no nukes on the peninsula that you have to talk to them and thats the path forward we will talk to them for you are well aware the history of negotiations with korea and that they either break up or work. Sheets. How do you factor that history in with the prospect forward negotiated settlement to the Current Crisis on the Korean Peninsula. Thats a good question, jim. Its great to be here. We have had agreements in the past with north korea and as you said, they have obvious gated, cheated and we achieved primark in 1994 and they had Nuclear Weapons. The fact of the matter is that we had an agreement in 94 and they did freeze the plutonium program but we had the perry process in 1999 where we got close to the agreement on missile launches and a moratorium on missile launches and we had [inaudible]. With the joint statement of [inaudible] with his progress toward halting the nuclear programs. Each of those instances there was an issue that spoke to obfuscation or Getting Nuclear Weapons or not willing to open the facility up to modernism and its contents away. One would say we have five years of sales negotiations why would you want to look at the threat again having to them. My personal view they see their Nuclear Weapons as a nuclear deterrent. They see the us objective in the region as regime change and theyre talking about that and my colleagues and theyre talking about they want to survive. They feel these Nuclear Weapons no one will mess with them and no one will bless them. To your other point, they are not suicidal. They know the consequences but theres also the proliferation effort there because they sold technology to syria et cetera but i think the fact is to your question they need to stop what they are doing. What we have seen now is north korea becoming an accidental country very quickly to the United States and theyve been that way since south korea and they been that way since japan. Now to the United States with the icbms launches in the Hydrogen Bomb that was likely sent on the third of september and they need to stop. The only way they will stop is if you sit down with them and they look, we know you have concerns we will address those concerns but we have concerns and you have to stop launching missiles and manufacturing nuclear material. I dont know how you get there without talking. In the simplest form, what we would offer them and what he would in return. We would want immediately if they want us to sit with them is to stop there launches and the production of material. They want security insurance and a pattern that with a piece of paper with madeleine albright, former secretary of state that we did give them security assurances and they want security insurance and they want a peace treaty. They are looking for Economic Development assistance and, you know, theyve been pursuing Nuclear Weapons for a number of years under the guise of Peaceful Nuclear folder is that . [inaudible] there were a number of deliverables available to them that they want to put on the table in the main one being security insurance. Armistice, and the korean wa reduction on the sanctions, scaling back to joint military exercises because they see this as [inaudible] host im going to put you on the spot here. Is north korea more or less likely to negotiate if the us pulls out of the Iran Nuclear Deal . My personal view on that, i think that would be a message to [inaudible] that that us would be would walk away from those agreements and i think that my personal view is that if we pull out and just pulled out of the agreement that they would sit back and say even having insurances really doesnt mean that much but if we complement and the agreement as we did in north korea i think they would understand and having the agreement. Understood. People talk about our president included about how china is the key and you put pressure on china and china has to do more in china is doing more for not doing enough. I often remind folks that frankly china has different National Security priorities as much as they dislike or want to avoid unutilized Korean Peninsula in the simplest terms can china do more to squeeze north korea to make a difference because on the flip side china doesnt want to knock the regime down. There is more china could do to create pressure and further isolate north korea. What effect that will have on can jungle and is a different issue but china still accounts for 90 of north korean trade in china supplied the lifeline oil to north korea. It is noteworthy that with the sanctions we have to put in place the chinese, by the public for option records they are sensitive to what they dont put on the sanctions list and again the crude oil and only agreeing to limits on trade and its clear the chinese want to maintain influence with undercutting that if they pull out of the squared away from north korea. China has publicly and their policy is, of course, to support the denuclearization of the peninsula but as you say they also, perhaps more so, put a priority on the stability and the continuance of the proper state. Their challenge, in my view, is to look back and reflect on and assess to what extent the support they are continuing to provide for north korea and to what extent that encourages north korean behavior. At the end of the day, my hope is that the analyst in china will be looking at north korea and the region will say when they look out that they will be forced to do in response to north korean behavior is recognize that our support is more threat to stability and east asia then would come from us further isolating area. My hope is again that the analyst will [inaudible] increasingly, north koreas behavior is bringing about problems for china in east asia that are certainly not in chinas interest in where we can find a way to bring those two together i think they are somewhere in there but at the end of the day, yes, china can do more but whether can jungle and changes his and he lost the crude oil but just the general a backing of the china is a different question. A reminder to the audience but there will be time for questions for a bite at the apple but i just want to go to a few more topics here. It seems that the general state of mind the three of you focus very deep on the north korean issue is relatively [inaudible] chill, more chill than i expected and certainly more chilled than the public discussion issue right now and listen, im a journalist and i see the headlines and in my gut its a little more alarmist than the actual immediate danger because of things that the point that you made that for instance, north korea has no interest in committing suicide be a Nuclear Missile or military, the us. Are you more and up this person spoke to the ambassador but are you more call about how this will play out in the coming weeks and months then the popular impression is of the north korean crisis . Let me answer that from where i sit, jim. We can stumble into conflict because as you mentioned if they make a threat to the us and the allies and its viewed as an imminent threat we have no choice but to use our missiles to defend our allies and take it down. Thats a preemptive strike. Can we shoot it down . Well, we are working on capabilities which are pretty impressive. Is it one 100 . Very few things are one 100 but we are committed to and if its an imminent threat we will take it down. International law not only permits it but citizens in respect to the country respect that and that we would protect them from an imminent threat and in this case stemming from north korea. If they have the missiles and the nuclear and just think about that. If there was something coming out we would take it down or attempt to take it down with declaratory policy and who may respond to that. Take that logic and the ability of the possibility of stumbling into something because they respond in some kind of way and initiate and misinterpreted or misconstrued and be active so the possibility of stumbling into conflict is very great so i am not chilled on that. I think a lot has to be done to diffuse the current impasse. Well, as you know, we are concerned. As investor to china, stumbling into a conflict that risk exists at any time on the korean conflict. In the yellow sea and Northwest Island where the top korean avery, bless their hearts, they are everyday total against the navy and that situation could escalate at any moment. He has seen in recent history several incidences where it gets out of control. However, there is a clarity of purpose and what kim jongun is doing. I dont think he is done. In fact, i told my own staff, october 10 is the pre and Workers Party founding day. Monday, columbus day holiday in the us so [laughter] Central Intelligence agency stands by and we are an instrument of National Power and weekend [inaudible] and maybe that is one of the things. A better understanding of the motivation and i tell people that im 46 years old and ive been in north korea for 24 years, little over half of my life. In that point, the two lessons i have learned is that one, north korea is a Political Organization that buys on competition. That since the end of the korean war, what has is there a chinese abandonment on one end, and fear of the u. S. Strike on the other end. Right now theres nothing bounding his behavior because hes not afraid of chinese abandonment or not afraid of the u. S. Strike. It becomes how far will kim jongun go . I think kim jongun and the North Koreans itself have miscalculated. They wanted our attention. Believe me, they have our full undivided attention. Director of Central Intelligence agency, mike pompeo stood up earlier this year and has a fulltime job giving them full undivided attention. Once again the risk of conflict always exist but we have great allies. We are not in it alone. We have classic allies in south korea and the chinese as well. China gets a vote. I look back in history books and the first time the chinese intervened in the korea was the han dynasty. They intervene in every single moment in the crossroads of korean history, glassman being october 195050 and have track record except for the one time when they were silent in 1898. We are not in analyte sensors were not underestimating but theres clear purpose of kim jongun is doing and i hope he doesnt make mistake and the North Koreans dont make a mistake either, underestimating our wealth, underestimating the will of the United States and the combined forces. It struck me during my time in china that chinas policy view is attached to much longer timelines that ours. Thats obvious. They have much longer history than ours but, you know that from chinese diplomat often. They will say whether you talk about the site china sea but the history informs the perspective of how to look at these issues. Maybe by our short history but also the american adhd but we dont look back that far. Im going to put you on the spot. You are aware of the president s comments via twitter and elsewhere about fire and fury and you probably saw a store a couple of days ago where some folks in the administration saying this is intentional, that u. S. Adversaries offguard to some degree. I come happy to play the crazy man because of then they dont really know how were going to react. From your seat does that work in a power relationship like this, whether with the North Koreans or with the chinese . Well, talking about the chinese, like i said the two bookends, chinese abandonment and fear of just strikes since the end of the korean war. Twice those bookends closed, china move. Where the chinese were convinced u. S. Very to go to war independence of your first was 1976 during the following the brutal murder of two u. S. Army officers at the dmz. They launched operation paul bunyan to cut down the trees, the tree trimming operation in which the u. S. Officer were attacked. That chinese put tremendous pressure on pyongyang. The recent example is 2003 when the u. S. Reconnaissance flight North Koreans intercepted a u. S. Reconnaissance flight over the sea of japan. That was the week we kicked off Operation Iraqi freedom. He had a lot of deterrence credibility that week, and chains once again thats of the sixparty talks got started was under tremendous pressure on pyongyang. Once again saying, not just saying all options are on the table but demonstrating our clear purpose as the combined forces of command have been doing with our south korean allies, with the b1 flights and the continuing exercise of military power, that will have to be continually displayed because china still looks at the north korea problem, wrong mike, china still looks at the north korean problem compared with u. S. Has been doing and has been since the korean war. The only way theyre going to express, put pressure on north korea is what if there sources of just purposes, their main strategic goal is not to blame piece of stewart on the Korean Peninsula. China strategical is to frustrate the u. S. And maintain a Permanent Division of the Korean Peninsula with a very cynical view that the want that buffer zone between the river and the dnc. So i think that clarity of the strong purpose statement from the president , clarity of purpose delisted on the grounds with our south korean allies in lockstep, i think there needs to continue. That needs to probably increase to really demonstrate that we are, if nothing else it demonstrates that strong will to the chinese. I think that goes to the South China Sea as well with our free navigation operation. China not only takes a a very g point of view but it looks at a global point of view. When i was in the seventh fleet, we will sail anywhere in international waters. That demonstrates a clarity of purpose that makes them think twice about north korea. I got to go on one of those navigation flights which i never forget. Look, make no mistake. We take this issue very seriously. Its not helpful to be rash in our analysis. Very thoughtful and have a look at this issue as we all should, of course but please dont take away from this venue that we are all called about what this [inaudible] as i said earlier, this is not just what we are seeing. Its not just wrestling with the immediate threat that north korea poses to the United States right now. What we are seeing right now first and foremost is a test of a relationship china wants the United States. China aspires to be the preeminent power in east asia and yes, they comes at the expense of u. S. Influence. China is aspiring globally to undermine we can our influence and errors were our interests conflict. Thats not to say there on it as of commentary. There are in many. But the way in which the north korea is playing out in chinas management of it as yong said the insurance of the buffer steak and why do want a buffer state . Because they see themselves in competition with the United States and our Alliance Network in east asia. To your question, china sky cliche as to what to do on north korea is not determined solely if at all my north korean behavior. Its what they worry will happen in response to north korean behavior. As i said my hope is when the chinese look at what the United States may be forced to do our others may be forced to do in response to north korean provocations, say for example, that being put in south korea, asset and chinas interest but in the dates 86 the stuff the rest is causing thats north korea. Thats bringing about a stronger u. S. Alliance. When you recognize not just their view of history but the long term where they want to go. Greater concern about the International Response to north korean behavior is probably helpful. Let me just add come , i dont disagree with my colleagues. China has done some heavy lifting with north korea. We see this now with the sanctions. We certainly sought with sixparty talks with a convene as yong indicated there with a onetwo brought north korea to the table in april 2003 to initiate the sixparty process and so forth. But to your initial question i think china has to be concerned about stability in the north, the conflict in the Korean Peninsula. They dont want, they want conflict in the Korean Peninsula and i think they realize we are at an Inflection Point with north korea because again miscalculation or lack of communications could precipitate something. And i think china would be a a very actively on that if they felt and as my colleagues indicated they see north korea, although theyre not happy with north korea, they have a treaty with north korea but north korea serves a purpose for china as was articulated. I dont think they want to see it used doing something in north korea that would upset this equation where they have an ally and in some ways they probably view north korea, given historical park, tribune tribuy state, but the fact is its their turf. China will be very protective and concerned if we should, my personal view, unilaterally or in consultation with our allies do something that is amicable to the interest and thats what have to be part of any in my view, in a discussion about what plants and attention would be. Really our allies in the south korea but china, thats an important region for them. Im going to unleash the ious audience on you now. Bracer cells. Its difficult for me to see because of the lights. I would like the first questions to be from students and want to get to the press section before you finish up, or students who are members of the gw community. Whos going to choose for me . Theres a gentleman up here. If you dont like keep your question short that way we can get as many folks as possible. Can we talk about kim after next . If jim sedley peacefully dies or is removed somehow, is that good for the peninsula and is it a better world . Guest who wants to take that . Thanks for the question. Ill take that question. Is it a better world . Depends on when that happened. If that happens tomorrow, no, it would not be good for the world. If it happens after a couple of decades, then thinking that he had a succession and a successor in place then that would be a different picture. But i think we do need too seriously about how will all this will end. It isnt a thirdgeneration and how nothing is permanent, and that is a question that we think often in how all this will end. And as for where it will, what it will end up in what kind of, would it be a better world, i think a lot of it depends on frankly the South Koreans and the strength of the partnership with the United States. One of the things as a historian by training, i look at the Korean Peninsula now and it eagerly reminds me of the 1890s when we had the Korean Peninsula stuck in the middle of a superpower competition between russia, japan and china, which japan settled by combat fighting the russians and the chinese. Its, i think, once again its exactly where u. S. And south korea will be at the time. And how convinced china once again is, the strength, not just regionally but globally, we have to weigh in on that calculation. Its kind of a sudden death of mr. Kim, thats speculation at this point but i think if you want to plan for a sudden crisis, sudden leadership change, the best way to do that is, once again as michael talked about and as ambassador detrani talked about where to be in a good place with china and once again they can be any daylight, and there isnt, between our partnership with south korea. Another question. Is there a student . I does want to give a student a chance. Right here, this gentleman right here. And if you dont mind identifying yourself when you start. On michael at gw university. I have a question regarding china. How do you think china is going to react after the 19th Party Congress if the plans to assume party power succeed with regards to korea and may be contingent a little more, that he has more flexibility . Michael . Im sorry, how will this policy change . Did you see how china will react. Was nothing is more flexibility because xi is more political power, if his plans succeed, how do you think it might react towards north korean out . Thats a great question. Hes effectively consolidated power faster than military than shop watching over the last five years and all the more powerful. In chinas overall leadership. Xi is at home. Hes clearly tightly the crippling state control across a whole host of issues, externally hes encouraging a more muscular diplomacy, more assertive diplomacy in many ways. It looks like xi is a key variable in that. So is he is to emerge from the congress as we expect an Even Stronger position after having consolidated power for his next fiveyear term, it will be an interesting test after the 19th Party Congress is concluded, to what extent, what kind of relationship he wants it, and courage with again not just in northeast asia but especially the United States. Right now its clear on just about every front they want stability. Stability stability stability. On the economic side, on korea and in the u. S. Relationship. Afterward he will have probably a freer hand to think more about the strategic goals he is setting in both the domestic front and the Foreign Policy front. It will be an interesting path forward. Is it an exaggeration to say that he envisions himself now 2. 0 . No. Not an exaggeration. Further to that, what were seeing even now, indeed post 19th Party Congress, is chinas leadership with xi jinping as a global leader, with the Asian Infrastructure investment bank, with the one belt, one road, if you go down the road to the g20, its Global Leadership and this is xi, this is xi jinping, \80{l1}s{l0}\80{l1}s{l0} got rid of a number of anticorruption campaign, taken care of that and outputting china on the stage in a global sense come in a leadership since. Thats an important piece and it plays very well to chinas sense of history, a strong sense of nationalism and pride. Another question. I dont know where the press and is but i do want to give journalists a chance ask a question because i know you are here, too. Who can help me out on that . They put them back in the in the back, right, where the journalists belong. And if you could identify yourself. Kim dozier. I i did know we were giving e mic to kim dozier. [laughing] so my question is, what does the president s tweets due to the overall policy . How do you think they are being read by the north korean public writ large, the elite and by the leader . It was about how did, how did the president s tweets effect, are you talking inside how are they the red, proce, reacted to . Either taken as policy or are they doing what of the parts of the world are doing, looking for what matters or tillerson site and ignoring the tweets . Thats a good question. You would ask that question of many allies are adversaries. How do you think his tweets are as of policy or let me talk to my colleagues who know more about this. I would have to say they are hearing from the president of the United States. This has have Significant Impact on them. They realize its a process but, i mean, lets face it, north korea live in a bubble. With exception of the ministry of foreign affairs, officials are outside, they are cut off from the world literally. So when the here was coming from the president , it resonates with them. I think we saw that with the foreign minister at the u. N. A few weeks ago, the general assembly, and the reactions. I think then when they hear the rest of the officials coming in and what you with the on these issues, so to your question i would suggest they take a very specific this is the the presit of the United States but they also know we had a process. I think right now they are probing anyone to find out how does this process work and what fine analysis will be with respect to a policy towards north korea. Theres a lot of ambiguity from their side. Anyone else want to pipe in, chomping at the bit to respond to the president s tweets . Which is about five minutes left. I want to go to another student again in light of where we are. Anyone with a question . The gentleman here. You said china gets a vote. Can you tell me a little bit about south koreas vote and the restraint they showed restraint. What you think it would take to get south korea to do something destabilizing . I think, absolutely, and once again, its the south Korean Military and the leadership is rocksolid, commitment to the partnership and the alliance of the u. S. Data, and kept the civility and the peace in the Korean Peninsula. You mentioned their will. I think South Koreans surprised the world and surprise the world in 2015 when the president president made it very clear, North Koreans convinced themselves and North Koreans were convinced as well when they sent out there commissar to negotiate. Once again it shows that streak of conservatism in the authoritarian system. President s of democratically elected systems retired, buy some books printed speeches. Thats not an option for kim jongun. You either win and stand again, or just define winning by staying in the game, or you lose it all. I think once again south koreas vote is americas vote, is that Strong Alliance relationship we have with the command. Cia is tremendously fortunate we had a worldclass Intelligence Service in south korea that work lockstep with us as a partner, and i think that political will was displayed by President Park and continued that strong leadership and continued to be displayed by their president now. I would add such as south korea but every partner, every stakeholder who has an interest on east asian in this pic have about in the matter. At the end of the day for us to envision greater chances of success on this issue, i suck when you the United States. Again china north korea need to wake up and look at the region and say the International Community is pushing back against us. Absolutely. Not only do North Koreans that the International Community, tremendous help that we see at the u. N. , partnership with amazing work Ambassador Haley is doing and partnership of european allies, latin american countries, Southeast Asian countries, entire world. And think about japan. The abductee issue and the first type the floor japan in 1998 when we were negotiating a moratorium on missile launches, no recently japan had two other intermediate range Ballistic Missiles flying over it. So for juventus is such a central issue and this is why we have to be, and we are, this is an alliance of our allies and the region but also in a global sense. This is not just the u. S. Issue or china issue. I often think, imagine the use approaching, the use approach to this issue if a a handful of americans have been abducted off the los angeles beach a decade ago. We have one minute 24 seconds. I want to give one last question. It will have to be short and the answer will have to be short. The gentleman right here. We have a student right here. Great. Good morning gentlemen. Thank you so much for being here. Mr. Jim sciutto, were you at the edge by any chance . The conference at Edgemont High School up in new york . I dont think i was. Where was i . Okay. Just look at this from a military perspective, we now have confirmed that north korea has successfully miniaturize Nuclear Warheads and can manufacture intercontinental Ballistic Missiles capable of striking new york if properly aimed. Also it seems they successfully tested a Hydrogen Bomb is look at what assurances do we have that kim jongun will not decide to use one of these weapons on the United States or its allies on the same emotional whim when which he turns his own with an aircraft battery . Who wants to take it . Once again, mr. Kim is a rational actor. Its frankly i think actually going, the chinese, i blame the chinese for that, telling people that he is the power behind the drum. That got kim jongun attention and usually exactly who the power, he doesnt have the power behind the drum. He made that point very clear. He wasnt on an emotional win. Thats once again to solidify, show the world he is in charge. The same rationality what i mentioned would probably prevent him from time is likely to prevent them from waking up one morning and decide he wants to try to nuke l. A. Thats not conducive to his longevity. Thats not conducive to his regime stability. Final word. In the intelligence business we target intention, capability and what we call resolve. Right now the Intelligence Community is wrestling with resolve questions, not just with good but other in the region. That has to with signaling and statements here right now were in the early stages of a new administration and the region is watching for how everybody responds to provocations north korea takes. That will significantly inform the extent to which north korea or others have resolve or not to continue their behavior. Again, i talked about this last night at dinner about when we look at this from an intelligence target is not just about capability. Its not just what we can say about intention but its an issue where their learning, we learned, our adversaries are learning what they can get away with our not get away with. We are in the early start of a new window with a new administration and it makes how we think about and analyze this issue right now all the more critical to whats going to happen next year with the next provocation four or five years from now. Let me just, last comment on that is where we out of time. But north korea is not suicidal. We all agree this man is a survivalist. Theres a question, and to speak about their Nuclear Weapons program as a nuclear deterrent, to keep the u. S. , south korea away from decapitation. Now having said that there is a mentality in north korea, the mentality going back to this rich history of 500 invasions over 2000 years thousand years of recorded history and so forth. You killed me, i kill you. So there is a sense that it put in the corner we dont know, and i think some of us would say, and im one of them, would say north korea is unpredictable in that regard it put in a corner. They are not suicidal, it will not be using it. They see it as a deterrent and so forth. But its their calculus and getting into their minds, seen how confluence of issues affect their security and what it means for their survival. This is a complex issue. Thats sobering. Yong, ambassador, michael, audience, thank you for your excellent questions. Appreciate the conversation. Thank you. [applause] [inaudible conversations] former First Lady Michelle Obama was interviewed recently i. T. The creator and producer shonda rimes. We will be showing that in its entirety tomorrow night but heres a preview. Do you think that women in general have less chances to fail . You fail once, people start labeling you how to the new label a man ever. Absolutely. I think thats true for women, minorities. I think the bars are different. We explained that all the tyvekc week sprints that over the last eight years. I joked when i was on the campaign trail, the barges kept moving. Just like you meet it and then the bar with change. And were seeing that now quite frankly. The bar is [laughing] [applause] i i mean, that bar is going places. It is amazing, amazing to watch. The conversation between former First Lady Michelle Obama and tv show producer shonda rimes held in philadelphia at the early pennsylvania comfortse limit for a crowd of about 12,000. You can watch the entire interview saturday night at eight eastern on cspan. Cspan cities tour takes booktv and American History tv to pierre, south dakota with our Cable Partners will explore the rich history and literary life of the States Capital city. Saturday at noon eastern on booktv, Nathan Sandison talks about pioneer cowboys add lemon. He was involved in the expansion of that cattle ranching industry primarily in western south dakota which was essential along with mine and expansion of the railroad and the growth of our state in the early part of the 20 century. Director of the pioneer girl project explores the memoirs and aspirations of Laura Ingalls wilder. The pioneer girl project is a research and Publishing Program of the south Dakota State Historical society that is designed to study and publish a comprehensive addition of Laura Ingalls wilder pioneer girl, which is her autobiography. On sunday at 2 p. M. Eastern on American History tv we will tour the south dakota state capital. If you look up there are also four corner areas with flags. Obviously the south dakota flag, theres a flight from dakota territory, a flight from the United States of course and there are also flags from spain and france because they controlled this territory at different times. Each corner has in one corner has whitefly, a red flag, a black and one yellow and those are the native american colors that symbolize the four directions of the compass. If you dont loose in clarks encounter with members of lakota sioux along the Missouri River and why that meeting was so important to the area