state, a state that has changed over the last 15 to 20 years. why? >> one big reason is the state has become increasingly suburban. half will come from two counties in new hampshire along the massachusetts border. hillsboro and rocking ham, and that is where you find the mix of urban but suburban voters who live near the massachusetts border, might commute to massachusetts for their employment. they moved to new hampshire for cost-of-living reasons, lower taxes, lower housing costs especially. what is interesting is rural new hampshire is not like the rest of rural america. we tend to think that rural is red. in new hampshire, rural is sometimes blue. especially in bernie sanders' backyard. in the connecticut river valley, in western new hampshire from the southwest corner of the state up into grafton county where dartmouth college is, that is actually an area where democrats in a general election typically find their margin of victory for a statewide race. rural is more recreational-based in new hampshire. people come up to vacation. a lot of people go up to retire in new hampshire. they bring their politics with them, so one thing that has changed in new hampshire that has brought political change, there used to be the image of the yankee republican, the old man in the plaid jacket that's a fiscal conservative. he has passed away and has been replaced by retirees from new jersey or new york who were democrats all their lives and they brought their politics with them. they are not going to change when they are 60, 65. republicans have gradually been replaced with democrats in the north. >> they have come here in part because of low taxes? dr. scala: right, so you've got two streams of migrants into new hampshire over the last 20 to 30 years. one would be working families in their 30's and 40's raising kids in new hampshire. and then retirees who are moving perhaps to the more rural areas for the amenities that come with the lifestyle. you get these different streams of migration. nowadays, it is interesting. 20 years ago when i moved here myself, the story was why is new hampshire turning from red to purple? the culprits, they said, were all these massachusetts residents moving north and bringing liberal democratic politics with them. actually nowadays, you look at the new hampshire republican party, where is the base? it is right along the massachusetts border in the suburban towns, the outer wing of the boston metropolitan area. that area has become more republican. republicans are more concentrated and ironically democrats are spread out more throughout the state. >> i want to come back to that point, but as we speak to you before the new hampshire primary, i am reminded in 2008 barack obama had an 11 point lead over then senator hillary clinton. he lost narrowly by a percentage point. i ask you how volatile the weekend before the primary is in a state that right now shows pete buttigieg rising in the polls. dr. scala: the answer is very volatile. look for surprises on tuesday night. you have a lot of voters, it is a multi-candidate field with many to choose from. voters have been unsettled, ambivalent, looking here, looking there, checking people out. all of a sudden, we get votes from iowa in slow motion. new hampshire voters are absorbing it. pete buttigieg is the man of the hour going into the weekend, but we don't know at the end of the weekend how things will look and things could move suddenly and for odd events that may occur. i remember hearing the monday before the 2008 primary that hillary clinton had been crying at an event. it didn't occur to me it made much of a difference at that point, but people look back and say that was something that might have swayed voters. there is an awful lot of change that could occur. >> let's go back to the demographics of the state. you mentioned senator bernie sanders. where's the buttigieg strength, where is the warren strength, and where is the biden strength? dr. scala: i would think the buttigieg strength would come from the new hampshire suburbs. especially in hillsboro and rockingham county. you find a lot of affluent well educated democrats who like pete buttigieg. they like how articulate he is, they like his plans for renewing american politics. buttigieg more than anyone else has seized the mantle of reform in this race. we see that as a long tradition going back to gary hart of candidates who succeeded in becoming the message of reform. i think suburbs for buttigieg. for biden, if he has a comeback, it will be blue-collar voters in places like manchester, nashua, cities of rochester, somersworth decide to stick with joe. they will lead the way for him. for bernie sanders, it will depend on three particular areas, college towns. there will be a big turnout from there. also in the connecticut river valley, his backyard, that will -- from grafton to cheshire counties, that will be key for him. elizabeth warren, i would look at the city of portsmouth. that small city on the seacoast, a lot of liberal voters there. if she is making a comeback and perhaps persuading voters, progressive voters, liberal voters to come over from bernie, that will be a key place for her. >> do you have a sense of turnout? what you will be looking for and what turnout could tell you about the results in this state? i expect turnout to be significantly higher for the democrats than in 2016 for three reasons. one is we have a pool of undeclared voters who are free agents. they can pick either a democratic or republican ballots on primary day, and they are more likely to pick a democratic ballot because the republican primary is so uncompetitive. seend, democrats we have in 2018 elections very energized to get this president out of office. i suspect that will carry over. three, there is so much attention on the primary. so many candidates coming and going for a year. all of that builds up to this climax. i think voters will turnout. it will be interesting to see if we hit a record turnout exceeding 2008. of course in iowa, we saw turnout was pretty flat. if it is flat here in a primary situation, that is a note of concern for democrats that they maybe lacking enthusiasm to take on president trump. >> i don't want to be cynical, but do you sense that some republicans could vote for candidate x because they think that could be the weakest opponent to donald trump in the november election? dr. scala: best i can tell -- there might to be isolated instances of that among the undeclared pool, but as far as i can see there hasn't been a coordinated effort to do so, to get republicans to the poll to play around. if anyone has been working on getting republican voters, it is hawaiian congresswoman tulsi gabbert who has had a bipartisan message of unity. i saw her on new year's day. she strikes some pretty republican talking points on things like the second amendment. i think if anyone gets republicans out to the polls, it might be her. >> is there one area that you will say this is the bellwether? dr. scala: i'm curious how the state capital of concord votes. concord is typically very democratic, pretty liberal place. that is a place where you would expect either elizabeth warren or bernie sanders to do well, but especially warren. if pete buttigieg is doing well in the city of concord, that suggests to me he has succeeded in becoming a crossover candidate. liberals like him, moderates like him. that to me will be a signal he will have a very good night. >> how would you describe what happened monday in iowa? would you call it a fiasco? dr. scala: i would. because you have the first in the nation event. the fact the results were not delivered promptly and accurately when everyone is waiting for a year anticipating this, it was a black eye for iowa. it is not the first one. eight years ago, iowa republicans declared the wrong winner of the iowa caucuses. mitt romney instead of rick santorum. i understand iowa democrats need to count accurately, though there are problems with that as well, but i think they dropped the ball. >> i ask that because four years from now, does that change the dynamics for iowa and new hampshire being first with the caucuses in iowa in the primary in new hampshire? dr. scala: i think the nightmare scenario for new hampshire is if the democrats lose the election to donald trump. the party out of power typically goes back and looks at the nomination process and says how can we tinker with this to produce a better nominee in 2024? if democrats set up a commission to look at the nomination process and open the box, it might not just be iowa who falls out. i'm sure there will be democrats that want to make greater changes, and iowa and new hampshire have been joined at the hip for so long. a lot of democrats i think see it as a twofer. they will say we are not only going to get rid of iowa, we are going to look at new hampshire as well. >> could that happen with your secretary of state? dr. scala: we have a secretary of state, bill gardner, fierce defender of the primary. we have a law that allows the secretary of state. the worry would be if the democratic party decided to try to penalize candidates who campaigned in new hampshire despite the fact that new hampshire, let's say, refuses to follow the party's orders to remove its primary. what do candidates do? can the party have leverage on the candidates in the form of penalties of some sort to prevent them from campaigning here? that is the thing. it has never been about the delegates, as you know. it is about the candidates, momentum, and so forth. if the candidates weren't here, the media wouldn't be here. if the candidates and media aren't here. >> if our listeners want to follow you social media? dr. scala: you can follow me on twitter @graniteprof. >> thank you for being with us. >> c-span's "washington journal," live every day with news and policy issues that impact you. coming up sunday morning, we will discuss the latest on the upcoming new hampshire primary with boston globe political reporter james kendall. independente politics director and the democratic party chair. be sure to watch c-span's washington journal live at 7:00 eastern sunday morning. join the discussion. the white house did not release a weekly address from the president.
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