In February 2020, the first case of Covid-19 was reported in sub-Saharan Africa. Simultaneously with the spread of the disease, African countries were being affected by disruptions of global supply chains of critical goods, such as food and medical supplies. The pandemic resulted in a sharp contraction of trade worldwide, with severe knock-on effects in sub-Saharan Africa on economic growth, poverty and food insecurity.
A recent study projects that Covi-19 will result in persistent shifts in African trade patterns by 2030. African countries are expected to trade more with China and less with Europe, the United States (US) and India.
The study was conducted by an international research consortium comprising the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Institute for Security Studies (ISS), and Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS). It uses scenarios to quantify the effect of Covid-19 on bilateral trade patterns for 10 African countries – Angola, Cabo Verde, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mauritius, Nigeria and South Africa.