Transcripts For CNBC Fast 20240704

Carpet with the stock winners and losers ahead of hollywoods big weekend. Im melissa lee coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq, tim seymour, and rebecca patterson, former chief strategist at bridgewater. We start off with the markets gold rush, the precious metal soaring to a record high today, topping the 2,200 mark for the first time ever. It just notched its best week since october and is up 20 over the past year. The latest rally coming alongside bitcoin which topped 70,000 during todays session. Ethereum also hitting a record. Stock market ending on a down note. The nasdaq shedding a percent while the dow shed. What does this tell you about the strength of this market rally . Rebecca, happy International Womens day. You too. What do you make of this gold move . I think what were seeing with bitcoin, gold and stocks today, theyre skpleetly separate. There isnt one big macro factor driving this. In the case of gold, id highlight two main things. China and china. Chinas Central Bank Put out data yesterday showing that they bought gold for a monthly for 16 months in a row. Theyre continuing to diversify reserves, thats not going to end given where u. S. china trade tensions are likely going, and then china consumer, you saw what happened in the two sessions policy meetings this week. Theyre not going to stimulate growth enough. The consumer cant make money in property, in stocks, in Wealth Management products, bank depos dep deposits. Theyre going into gold. Thats likely to continue too. The rate story for gold is a risk. Is could go either way in the shortterm. Theres important structural supports there. Can i stop you for a second . Youve got a lot of jobs out there. Hes worked at dominos, u. P. S. , where else have you worked . Shake shack. Lyft. Fantastic jobs. This man was a gold trader. I want to listen to this mans view on gold. But for real. For real. For real. And you didnt have to wear a hair net Goldman Sachs back in the day. Central banks in 2022 bought 70 billion worth of gold. It was a record. Last year they basically did about the same. It was again a record. This year im sure theyre on pace. Rebeccas right to bring up china. Central banks and weve said this, theyre hedging their own in inep ineptitude. I absolutely believe that. This is going to sound somewhat glib, its not meant to be. Its not a story until it is. Its becoming a story because were leading with it. This could be one of those weekends when we walk in the same way we did a couple of months ago and gold has this ridiculous move on a sunday night. Everybody might be bullish of gold, but the market is not long of gold yet, and when people start getting in, the institutions and they try toput the amount of money theyre putting into equities into the gold market, the gold market is not that big, and i think people will take notice. Gold tells a much different story than other risk assets, and i think its trying to tell the market something now. Is this move higher in advance of the fed pivot of rates going lower . I think gold has been sniffing out that the fed has peaked somewhere. Well maybe get into that, we may not, but end of the day, this was a number that showed that the fed certainly has a little bit more momentum on their side in terms of the labor market. I think gold and ive said this, im amazed, people say gold is crazy. Whats this move in gold doing . Im saying what took you so long . To me gold was actually trading phenomenally well at different times over the last couple of years, but at other times when we thought and i realize karen says this all the time, theres an entire checklist of reasons you could say you want to own gold and they seem to almost be for whatever flavor you want. But the reality is gold has a 20 year chart, i think its the best chart you can find right now, and the point is that over the last 20 years, the Central Banks have been slowly doing this. They havent been rushing in. Whats going on now is its a combination of Federal Reserve dynamics. Its a combination of central bank buying. Its a combination of some sense that i think investors are piling in. I think digital gold people are buying regular gold, and i think theres a lot of reasons why thats happening. All the holders out there, whatever you want to call them, theyre buying gold . Part of the reason bitcoin exists is theres fears of fiat currencies and central bank dynamics. Without having to take a political view because no one wants and cares about my politics, if you watched the state of the union last night and zhao you watched the rebutt weve got two Different Countries and thats why gold is going higher. Gold trades today at a 91 rsi. Thats usually like no big deal, but for tech stocks, but when gold trades, i think youre saying like this is actually a time you want to buy gold when its looks like its frothy. I think youre seeing real allocation. I do believe it was powell and guy talks a lot about this, what is the National Debt right now . It keeps going, moves pretty quick. 33 trillion and then some. Debt to gdp is 123 right now. And i do think it was more powell than anything else. I think china had a case in it, but i think youre going to see bitcoin and cold continue to skyrocket because of those reasons. I mean, if youre doubting sovereign credit right now, u. S. Sovereign youre a buyer of gold, seems like everything is in place for that thesis as well. Yeah, and to your point, you know, Political Uncertainty, geoPolitical Uncertainty, were all focused on the u. S. Election this year. Reasonably so. But theres also elections in the middle east. Taiwan. Theres elections in a lot of big countries. If you look at political certainty indices, theyre not looking good, right . Theres a lot of question marks around major governments around the world. We can think about u. S. Buyers, buyers in these emerging markets who are worried about their currencies being devalued, theyre going to gold. Guy, tim, steve, rebecca, minors should be trading. Were totally on the same page. Are they calling out everybodys name while theyre doing that . Im not sure. You know whapsdt happened last night. When he called everybody panelists instead of their names. I wanted to be Crystal Clear i knew peoples names. With that said i think the Equity Community is saying we burned before with miners, were not going to bother until gold proves itself. Its starting to now. I believe this, and ive thought it for a while incorrectly, when the catchup trade happens with miners, its going to catch everybody off guard. You saw glimpses of it. Some of these miners are in a hair trigger, so if you believe in gold here, you should actually foray into some of these mining stocks. Has go go higher. It used to be a three to one beta on the gold miners would outperform up and down three to one. The problem to this is the reason why theyre not performing is that labor costs, feasibility studies have skyrocketed, lubricants that are used in some of these digging for these gold mines. Thats the first time that we ever use that word diesel fuels, so you have a bunch of costs. Im blushing. I dont think those costs are combing in anytime soon. You do like gold . I do like gold. I like the idea of gold and one last data point is precovid you had a fed Balance Sheet of 4 trillion. It ran up to 9. Now its back down to 7. 7 and qt is ending. That still gives a tailwind to gold. Are you worried about miners . You think miners should catch up. I would have been scared to use the word lubricants. I would say steves right to point out that the inflationary aspects of what had been going on in the Mining Industry have actually put a lid on the operational leverage. You would think miners actually have in this time. Pointing out that historically gold miners were three to wone o the price of gold up or down, theyve underperformed outright. Forget a beta of three, the price of gold by about 27 in the last year. Gold has outperformed. I think that is a dynamic with inflation, but i agree with guy. I just think the gold miners will catch up, and i think theyre catching up now. Ive been adding to gdx all week. Ill give you a caveat. If stocks go down, if Political Uncertainty rises, if theres worries over growth miners are tough. Then miners are going to underperform in a major way. Totally. Keep that macro point in there. To that point, you mentioned that the moves in the various bitcoin, gold stocks separate for today, but in a way, what dp gold is telling you has to tell you that there are risks to this rally, no . To the gold rally. To the equity rally. Oh, to the stock rally . I mean, i think the stock rally, you have to go back and say, weve got a fed that now is priced for maybe three cuts this year instead of six, which was the case in january, so higher for longer, bad for stocks. However, weve had an incredibly resilient consumer, consumer 68 of gdp. So thats been the dominant factor helping everything, and then you have idiosyncratic stories like ai helping tech, et cetera. So to me even though the payrolls today suggested the fed can take its time before it starts cutting, you still are seeing payroll growth moderating but strong overall. Youre seeing the jolts survey this week moderating but strong. Youre seeing the beige book, more labor supply but the economy resilient. So that story hasnt changed, and i saw jpmorgan was on just before us. They just revised up their gdp forecast again. Certain people in our world are legendary. Paul tudor jones, on february 19th there was an announcement he dumped some tech stocks. He bought mining stock. You have to Pay Attention when somebody does Something Like that. He hadnt been in for a while, and now hes in the miners. He probably doesnt know what lubricants cost in his defense. Hes older now so. I dont know what lubricants cost either. Im moving on. No, you should. Youre looking at me, i didnt even do it. Gentlemen, it is International Womens day. It doesnt seem appropriate at all. Td securities today telling clients to take profits in gold. Dan golly is behind the call. Hes the firms senior commodity strategist. Great to have you with us. Why give up on this move higher . Yeah, listen, thanks for having me on. Listen, over the last few weeks, a few things that youve been discussing have been absolutely correct, right . The first part is that investors have been historically underpositioned in gold into a fed cutting cycle, but when you fast forward to today, a few of those things have changed, right . Firstly, macro traders and those im calling that the traders who carry about things like macroeconomic the number of fed cut prices for 2024, their positioning is now a lot more consistent with rates market pricing. The rest of the community mainly algo trend followers and chinese buyers have also bought an extreme amount of gold over the last week alone, so from here i think the easy part is over. The risk reward to higher gold prices is now dependent on macro trends deteriorating. So thank you for the comments. Next week weve got cpi and ppi. Obviously theyre going to important as we think about what the fed is going to do, timing, size and speed of rate cuts. Obviously important for gold as we think about the opportunity cost for gold. If you got lower than expected cpi would that affect your view . Or is your view beyond that one print . New yoo, absolutely. Were forecasting gold prices 2250 for the quarter. So i wouldnt say necessarily we have a bear, i would say the easy part is probably over here. If we get lower inflation and continued evidence of disinflation that would support more fed cuts for 2024 and in turn macro traders, thats really the last community that you need to start to buy gold, and that would certainly help that. Hey, dan, tim, thanks for joining us. Talk to us about correlations between the various pgms. I know youre bullish on platinum and palladium. I think silver has underperformed gold if you clook at historical ratios between the two. There are trades that are base ds upon industrial use. There are trades that are based upon macro, and there are just longterm relationships between these. Talk about any part of that. Listen, the most exciting part of what you said is silver really, right . So the pgms are trading exceptionally weak against gold. That relates to a trend of destocking, and you know its funny because over the last year we actually had exceptionally strong fundamental information come in, and they just traded far lower as a result of speculative selling activity and physical destocking. The piece i think that is most interesting for the next year or two is in silver mark, and i mentioned that because theres a few assumptions that we all have about the fresh metal market that might be challenged. One of them is we have enough silver aboveground to satisfy the tremendous man coming from seolar. I think thats going to come under challenge in the next year. Thanks so much, dan ghali of td. Silver or gold . Wow. Bull case for silver at this point, people say golds at an all time high. Silver is 50 of its all time high. By definition its got to catch up. Yes, that can happen. I hear what dans saying. Totally get it. This is the setup that every gold bull over the last 10 or is a years has been waiting for. Central bank is running amuck. Bond moves we havent seen historically over the last five years have been ridiculous, and again, the fact that steve brought up debt to gdp which i think is on peoples radar screen, that leads to gold in my opinion. Lets get to nvidia having a rare down day after rising as much as 5 and hitting a new high, it closed down more than 5. 5 . Thats a 10 move on the day. Lets bring in the chart master Carter Braxton worth for more on this. Great to have you with us. You just put out a note on nvidia saying this was a key day for the stock. Yeah, just briefly theres something known as a key reversal day. It can happen after a long down trend and a reversal or in this case a long uptrend. Four criteria, you need a stock thats an increasingly steep intermediate advance, thats the case in the context of a longterm advance. We have that. Number two on the day in question, the stock opens yet again very strong, often with a gap, nvidia gapped up today. And then number three, it fades intraday, actually goes from being up quite a bit. It was up almost 5 to unchanged and continues to slip and close as down on the day meaningfully. It closed down about 5, 6 , and then volume is at or near a record. Typically it marks the end of an intermediate move and it usually has follow through to the downside. So we shall see, but my hunch is if one is big here, reduce a little bit. Are there certain support levels youre looking to for nvidia to hold next week in order to prove to you that maybe this is just a nearterm phenomenon as opposed to a longer term trend lower . Right, i mean, obviously follow through, not following through on monday, tuesday, wednesday, not having another down week would say a lot. But actually, interesting on the screen, there is some talk of nvidia being quite similar or maybe isnt to cisco, and so i thought wed do an exercise here. This is the past ten year, nvidia, 2014 to present skpshs w and what you have is the stocks been compounding an annual growth rate of 72 . To put that in context, lets look at cisco in the ten years prior to its peak. It was an entirely different animal, right . Cisco is a 95 compound. It went from 0. 09 to 69 versus nvidia 450 to where we are at 975. To just to put that in context, look at the table that comes up next, and what you have here is what would have happened if you have 10,000 invested in nvidia from 2014 to 2024. That turns into 2. 3 million. 10,000 in cisco in the tenyear run to its peak, 7. 9. Nvidia is nothing even close to the excess that was seen in cisco, and remarkably, yeah, its both right now cisco is 5. 25 of the s p and cisco peaked at about 5. 25 of the s p. Carter, thank you. Carter braxton worth of worth charting. We made that comparison obviously because theres so many comparisons to the internet bubble and what ai is. Before we get to that, in terms of nvidia, if we do see downside next week, weve asked the question before, can the markets go higher without apple . But i think its more pertinent today to ask can the markets go higher without nvidia . Its interesting. Apple caught a bid today. It all actually makes a lot of sense. Originally i thought with apple trading the way it was trading. The s p i thought would have been around 4,200, 4,300. Clearly that didnt happen, were at alltime highs. I think the tech leads the way here. When you think about the market cap that nvidia lost today, there may be 15 or 20 companies that size in the world, yet it loses it like this. That to me is not a particular sign of a healthy market. When you look at whos been doing the heavy lifting. Its been nvidia and meta. The other names havent contributed, teslas down, apples down, googles down. They havent been doing any lifting. If you take them out, can the market move higher . It could move higher. Its going to be a lot more of a slog, because you have xlv, which is your health care, thats up 8 . And then you have industrials which are up 8 . Theyre smaller on a percentage weighting of the overall market. Its going to be a tough load to lift. If you look at the rest of the mark, it is rallying, and i would argue that over the last three days, its the semiconductor space. Semi semis are up 30 . That theyve outperformed as a group. To me its all about semis. But what are we talking . Were talking about banks over the last three weeks. Were talking about retail. Were talking about health care, other parts of the market that were in bear markets. Were talking about where were banks last july, august, last summer, and all the dynamics. You can make an argument we have the same economy, the same job market, the same consumer, and maybe theyre even a little weaker than they were, yet banks have finally started to catch up. I think some of that can continue in a benign fed environment. I agree with that and i think to your point, maybe its more of a slog because theyre smaller weights than the overall index. If you have things like banks, being able to participate a bit more along with other sectors, you mentioned industrials, health care, et cetera. I think you can go higher. To me what was really interesting this week was how strong powell was in his comment about not going too crazy with the bank regulations. And the fact that they are identifying the weaker banks, theyre telling them youve got to have a plan, doesnt mean we wont have more problems, but it does three shorten the tail risk on the left side for that sector. Weve got some breaking news on sam altmann and open ai. Lets get to steve kovach with the details. The information is reporting open ai is about to rename same altman back to the board. We know all the drama going on hear. He was ousted as ceo, kicked off the board. Came back within days. In addition to that, information is reporting several other new Board Members that are supposed to be made. This is im reading here, sue desmond heldman, former ceo from the bill gates foundation. Nicole seligman, former president of sony, and another name were familiar with, fiji simo, a top facebook executive. Were still waiting for official word from open ai on this. I have calls out like crazy right now. That is what the information is reporting. I wouldnt be surprise firstdegree we hear something official from open ai quite soon here. All right, steve, keep us posted. Thank you. Coming up, some electric trading. First General Electric hitting its highest level since 2017, and analysts are taking notice, what wall street is saying about that one. And shares of rivian continues its surge this week, the ev maker revealing just how many car buyers are rushing to place orders for its newest suv. Were charging into that trade when fast money returns. This is fast money with melia sslee right here on cnbc. Were you worried the wedding would be too much . Nahhhh. inner monologue another Destination Wedding . . We just got back from her sisters in napa. Who gets married in napa . My daughter. Who gets married someplace more expensive . My other daughter. Cancun jamaica why cant they use my backyard with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. So we dont have to worry. Can we get out of here . I thought youd never ask. 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It started when we got him under a new plan. But then they unexpectedly unraveled their price lock guarantee. Which has made him, a bit. Unruly. You called yourself the uncarrier. You sing about price lock on those commercials. The price lock, the price lock. So, if you could change the price, change the name its not a lock, i know a lock. So how can we undo the damage . We could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. Their connection is unreal. And we could all unexperience this whole session. Okay, thats uncalled for. Welcome back to fast money. Ge quietly in rally mode in 2024. That stock up more than 30 so far this year today hitting levels not seen since 2017. That after jpmorgan upgraded the stock this morning calling it a premier name. It had been at a sell rating for about a decade. Whats powering ges rally . And i know you remember the day that ge got downgraded by jpmorgan. This was a career making call for him, it was a tremendous call, and here we are back to buy. Industrials, i mean, the aerospace. Theres a lot to like about what General Energy is doing without question. Theyve seemingly turned a corner. You could probably still make an argument, i dont want to say its relatively cheap, but at least it seems to continue to grow in valuation. Honeywell had been eating their lunch. Maybe the gap between the two is being closed and thats why youre seeing this, i still think if you want to play la little stock market here, i would rather honeywell at these levels. I know its friday, guy, i mean. I cant do it . You just did it. You did it on your own. Never a time to break the rules. Thats a fair point. Im sorry. Heres another fair point. Larry culp, i think hes done a phenomenal job at ge, its easy to say that now. I think people were very critical in the early days. Whats really profound to think about but yet its kind of obvious in hindsight, hes the first outsider to run ge in 125 years. This is a guy that knew what businesses were deadweight, which businesses actually were low growth. Look, they were a conglomerate. They were the definition of conglomerate and they were all over the map. They were in real estate, they were in intertentertainment, fo our parent company. You have a dynamic here where i actually think into aerospace and aviation and core businesses, i think it goes higher. I held it for a long time and sold it way too early. Sold some upside calls. This is worth selling, cover calls can hurt you. Do you own it . I dont own it any longer. I owned it for years. Whats the split adjusted price of this thing. Its always confusing to me. When i looked at it, i would rather buy i dont think you set a bad precedent, bad trend there. You come up with comps when you look at ge, so its not necessarily a real apples to am ls. But you look at an emerson, that chart looks very constructive. When i look at ge, this looks like nosebleed territory to me. I dont think anyone really understands the true profitability of a company like this, but if industrials are going to perform, this is the number one component of the xli. Theres a lot more fast money to come. Heres whats coming up next. The force is strong with this one as the lower cost r2 revs up some strong early orders. So can the new suv help rivian ex expand to the masses . Were plugging into that trade next. Is the market ready for reddit . The social media platform gearing up to kick off its preipo road show, what you need to know ahead of the debut. Youre watching fast money live from the nasdaq markesit te in times square. Were back right after this. So, my best friend sophie says youve been a huge help. At ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. Our neighbors, the garcias, love working with you. Because the advice we give is personalized, hey, john reese, jr. Hows your father doing . To help reach your goals with confidence. 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Call the number on your screen. Shopifys point of sale system helps you sell at every stage of your business. With fast and secure payment. Card readers you can rely on. And one place to manage it all. Whatever the stage, businesses that grow grow with shopify. Welcome back to fast money. Shares of rivian continuing its climb this week, the ev maker reporting strong early orders for its cheaper r2 suv which was unveiled yesterday. The ceo saying the vehicle which will start at 45,000 has more than 68,000 reservations already despite its 13 climb this week, rivian shares down more than 45 just this year. Where are you on rivian at this point . Im not in it right now, and when you hear 68,000, thats not a lot. In 24 hours . Thats a lot. I dont know. Its a cyber truck. I think that you should be prepared to compare the two and i think its still going to be tesla when it comes to how people pay for these for these preorders. If you look at how much it costs, its a thousand dollars or so to preorder a rivian when its only 200 or 250 to preorder a tesla. So if they lower the price for preorders, that number is going to explode and they can brag about it a hell of a lot more. Evs have been under a lot of pressure. I look at the performance of this stock in an environment where everything with a pulse for speculators has been going higher. I get it, move from 10 up to 1270 is really dramatic, but the cash burn here, i think the overall theres not existential questions about ev overall. Theyre certainly where the biggest wave of early adopters out of the way, its really more about hybrids. This company is burning cash. Theres a lot of competition out there. Its a cool car, its just not a stock i think youll want to own. The bull case thats being put forth by analysts today is that they finally got a mainstream entrance that can compete. Its not too expensive so people can actually buy this thing. They are burning cash, but theyre going to burn less because they put off that factory in georgia, and they still got 10 billion. They have 9 billion, 10, whatever it is, people are calling it this is tesla ten years or 15 or so years ago type of thing. I get it. They lose i think 120,000 every car they sell, which is an astronomical number. However, i mean, its very tesla like a decade or so ago. If you believe in the story, if you believe in their backers and they have significant ones, you can see the momentum catching up in the stock. To tims point it has not been a performer in an environment where it should have performed. We have to talk about tesla. You tell me about the performance of tesla this week. This to me is a story that i think multiple forget tesla is way out in front, but i think they should have had a chance to bounce with a lot of the tech. Coming up we are not quite done with nvidia, mike khouw has the options action on this name. How to trade the monstrous rally in todays big reversal. Ready for reddit, all eye did, details on how the company is luring potential investors when fast money returns. Announcer catch us anytime on the go, follow the fast money podcast. Were back right after this. What is cirkul . Cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. Cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. Cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. Cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul. Com. To duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a builtn engine like google, but its pi and doesnt spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. And theres no catch. Its fre. We make money from ads, but they dont follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. Welcome back to fast m money, the dow closing near the flat line but closing out its worst wake week since october. The nasdaq leading the losses down more than 1 . Shares of macys jumping late on reports the retailer is open to directly negotiating a sale with ark House Management without launching a strategic review. Ark house and Brigade Capital recently raising their macys buyout bid to 6. 6 billion. Shares of boeing dropping more than 2 after news a tire flew off a United Airlines plane prompting an emergency landing. The plane was leaving san francisco, not to mention this morning it skidded off a runway as well. Novo nordisk down today, off its lows, the companys weight love drug wegovy approved bif the fda to risk of serious cardiovascular complications in adults with obesity and heart disease. Social media platform reddit is kicking off its ipo road show on monday as it makes its case to investors ahead of its highly anticipated offering. The Company Expected to price the stock between 31 and 34 a share for a valuation of about 6 billion. Thats about half of what it was worth just three years ago. Reddit stock will start trading on march 21st at the nyse. Wall street journal tech columnist Dan Gallagher joins us. They need an anchor investor is what you say . Well, i think reddit proposes its an interesting possibility because they actually, they grew the revenue in the most recent quarter, swung an operating profit, trimmed their cash burn. But overall theyre still losing money and burning cash, and theyre a way, way smaller social network even compared to pinterest and snap and extremely smaller compared to like facebook and instagram, so i think theres going to be a lot of questions about like what their Growth Prospects are, their path to profitability, and i think thats going to be the main focus. Dan, when i look at the stock, when it comes out, should i look at it, everything you just said talking about snap and snap was i guess six times or four times the valuation of this when they came out, should i look at this as a proxy of risk on in the markets . Can i make that case or am i being too bold . I think theres some risk involved, definitely. I mean, this is this is still a pretty sub scale social platform. However, there is a case to be made that a niche social Media Audience can still be a profitable one. Theyve not shown that profit on an annual basis, and i think and weve seen like with some of the recent ipos for about six months ago, instacart, glaf owe arm, and two of the three of those havent performed as well because theyve also continued to struggle on what theyve been showing so i think i dont think i dont see reddit necessarily as a home run right now for the ipo. Dan, thanks for joining us. How about some of what seems to me a conflict between the reddit that can exist in the world as a private company and the reddit thats going to be under a very different set of rules as a public company, not only in terms of disclosures but in terms of my guess is real true governance dynamics that i what do i know . I just know that this is a case where between a user base and even how theyve invited some of their loyal users and contributors to be part of this ipo, there are some questions here. Theres definitely ones and theyre in a unique position because theyre also known for having this, you know, kind of free wheeling and sometimes unruly base of very passionate users, and they want to include those users in the ipo, but weve also seen reports that at least some small set of those users are trying to rebel, maybe short the stock because they oppose certain things the companys doing, and reddit has to draw a fine line here. They have to keep their users engaged, especially the half of their user base thats considered logged in and the most valuable ones. They need to keep that and grow that and grow the business while not turning off those users. So its a really fine line they have to walk. The valuation i think in the summer of 21 was a little north of 10 billion. If they come out midrange, i think its 6. 5 billion. Whats sort of the level that this is a very disappointing offering in your mind . Well, i think i would expect it to be lower than what they saw. I mean, if you recall the middle of 2021, the markets were actually, i think maybe even more frothy than they are now, maybe not seem that way when you look at stocks such as nvidia and such. The valuation especially on internet stocks was actually higher then. We hadnt had that big correction that we saw in 2022, and in that time, reddits business has grown substantially. Theyve started to show improvements in their cash burn and such. But i think, if they tried to go out at a premium to that number that was kind of assigned in a more frothy time, i think that would have been a problem. Dan, great to have you with us. Thank you. Thank you for having me. Dan gallagher, wall street journal. What should we be reading about the ipo market as it relates to Market Sentiment overall . I mean, im still waiting for this magical reopening of the ipo market. I maean theyve been down so muh for the last two years. And i remember at the beginning of this year, a lot of Investment Bankers coming out saying this is the year were back, the feds cutting. Now the fed cuts have been scaled back. Is it enough just having top certainly in place plus the resilient consumer to get the ipo machine rolling again . We havent seen it yet. I would think is a better environment for it, barring some uncertainty into the election in november that makes people pause again. I understand a broader market, but nasdaq the stock had been under considerable pressure until about late fall of last year, and if you look at the move, theres a little stealth rally the nasdaq is having, i think the stock is probably telling you the ipo market is going to come back probably pretty significantly at some point. With all that safe, even with the move youve seen in ndaq, i think theres room for the upside in this name. Coming up, how to play the moves in nvidia, well lay out a trade that gives you a way to protect your gains if theres a bigger pullback in store. And lights cameras, oscars, holl hollywoods biggest night this sunday, well give you a preview of the big event. More fast money in two. To advance the future of golf, pga of america chose tmobile for business. With a 5g powered Innovation Hub to analyze player performance and expand coaching tools. Take your business further with americas largest 5g network. Switch to shopify and sell smarter at every stage of your business. Take full control of your brand with your own custom store. Scale faster with tools that let you manage every sale from every channel. And sell more with the best converting checkout on the planet. A lot more. Take your business to the next stage when you switch to shopify. So this is pickleball . Its basically tennis for babies, but for adults. It should be called wiffle tennis. Pickle yeah, aw whoo these guys are intense. We got nothing to worry about. With e trade from morgan stanley, were ready for whatever gets served up. Dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. Id rather work on saving for retirement. Or college, since you like to get schooled. Thats a pretty good burn, right . Got him. Good game. Thanks for coming to our clinic, first ones free. Welcome back to fast money, nvidia has soared more than 260 in the past year, but the ai darling pulled back more than 5 today and was down nearly 10 from its highs of the session. Is there a way to take advantage of more potential upside while protecting yourself from any greater drops . Mike khouw might have some answers from the options market, mike. Yeah, sure, so obviously we got earnings out, the stock did very well out of that, but of course this downside reversal that we saw today is basically one of the worst technical signals as far as im concerned. Obviously we gapped higher off the open and ended up closing lower. Thats never an attractive situation. If youre going to use options to try to protect yourself after the great year that weve had, the great run youve had. One of the things you obviously have to contend with is the fact that options premiums are high, despite the fact weve had earnings and had some of the ball crush coming out of that. One way to maintain some upside and still give yourself some near Downside Protection is with the kwus use of a put spread collar. 875 strike puts as ive pointed out before, these are expensive, nearly 75 bucks. And selling a lower strike 745 put and financing that by selling an upside call. I was looking to 945, but you could actually stretch that out much higher and still not really lay out much premium. That gives you some upside, maybe if you want 10, 15 , you can capture that while giving yourself anywhere from 10 to 15 Downside Protection. Mike, did you come up with this trade after the pullback today . Im just curious how youre thinking about the stock and how youre thinking about trading it given the reversal. Yeah, so it was specifically because of the reversal i was looking at it. I should say we own several chip stocks and we owned nvidia up until last friday. We held it through earnings. That was obviously a premature exit. The technical move that we saw today, and it actually startled me, not just for nvidia but for some of the other names we own was we also own broadcom, we have marvel. Marvel obviously didnt do very well. That kind of price action and im sure the guys on the desk are going to sit there and tell you the same thing you never like to see something gap open, hit new alltime highs and then close sharply lower and close to actually the lows of the day. Thats just not a good technical setup. Yeah, mike, thank you. Mike khouw. Weve got some more te tails in the open ai board changes. Lets get back to steve ckovach for details. Open ai naming several new Board Members including sam altman the ceo of open ai is returning to the board. They also issued a summary of the report that looked into his ouster and all the drama around that. But first lets go over the new Board Members, the new ones are dr. Sue desmondhellmann, nicole seligman, and fidji simo, the ceo of instacart and sam altman. The other Board Members are staying, Larry Summers and brett taylor the former salesforce and facebook or twitter board member that is. And then let me go over what happened here in their reviews. So this was done by the Law Firm Wilmerhale over the last several months and some of their findings include that the prior board did have the authority and discretion based on what they called, quote, to mitigate internal management challenges. Thats why they fired them. They had the right to do it, but they also found it had nothing to do with product safety or finances or Investor Relations or anything like that thats been kind of going around. However, they also found that he should not have been fired. They said his let me quote from the release. His conduct did not mandate removal and also saying that the prior board did not think that their actions were going to cause the upset and turmoil that did, but really very broad here. We dont have the full ins and outs of the investigation. I will also justone more important thing. They are saying theyre going to change the governance of open ai here. Theyre not saying exactly how, but theyre going to review those guidelines. That of course is a major issue, this interesting nonprofit structure they have. Hopefully more details on that to come. Coming up, two days away from the oscars, hollywoods biggest night coming a at crucial time for the entertainment industry. W e studio and media giants behind some of this years Biggest Box Office hits will fare when fast money returns. Rylee from rylees realty hi this listing sounds incredible. Lets check it out. Says here it gets plenty of light. And this must be the ocean view . Of aruba . Huh. This listing is misleading. Well, when at t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. We mean it. Amazing. All my agents want it. Says here. inviting pool. Come on over too inviting. Only at t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. Get iphone 15 pro on us. you can make money the hard way as a bullfighter get iphone 15 pro on us. Or a human cannonball. Or save money the easy way, with xfinity mobile. Existing customers can get a free line of our most popular unlimited plan for a year not only will you save hundreds but youll also be joining millions who have connected to americas most reliable 5g network. Sure is a lot safer than becoming a stuntman for money. Get a free line of unlimited intro for a year when you buy one unlimited line. Visit xfinitymobile. Com today to learn more. Welcome back to fast money. It is oscar weekend, hollywoods biggest night is this sunday. What does it mean for the studios and media giants behind this years box office hits. Lets get to Julia Boorstin whos live on the red carpet. Reporter hey, melissa. This years oscars come amid concerns about Artificial Intelligence and also about the future of movie going. The box office yeartodate is down 13 from last years numbers at this time, despite the fact that Warner Brothers dune 2 had a Domestic Opening that was more than double the franchises first installment. The studios hope that this years returning franchises including lord of the rings and dead pool will have a moment like last years bar binheimer. And this sunday the race is on for studios and streamers to win these awards that attract tom talent and also promote no nominated films which are nearly all available online. I just kacaught up with the hea of the academy about the impact of streaming. Streaming provides incredible access for everybody around the world to see movies that they may not be able to see, at the same time theatrical is key for so many disciplines of movie making to be fully enjoyed, so we want to exist in a world where both can coexist beautifully. In terms of this sundays oscar race, disney studios have the most nominations, 20 for films including poor things. Netflix has 18, bolstered by bradley coopers maestro. Universal has 18 nominations, and oppenheimer has 13 nominations. It is expected to sweep the show. Theres apple with 13 nominations and Warner Brothers with nine nominations. With the blockbuster performance of oppenheimer and also barbie, there are some barbie songs that are going to be performed on sunday, abc is hoping to continue its ratings rebound after viewership hit a low back in 2021. All right, julia, thank you. Julia boorstin on the red carpet, which is back to red apparently. It was not red last year. Any particular reason . I dont know. They just want add change, there was an uproar. Anyway, back to the discussion on all of these stocks. Are we just going to sit here and say netflix wins as a stock . I feel like thats the consensus on the desk. What we discussed yesterday for me was that netflix, while its running now, i think the valuation is less important. And when it was cheap, it was interesting and it was certainly interesting on a Free Cash Flow basis. Disney to me is the name thats more interesting just because, in fact, they seem to have gotten we have a quarter under the belt where they actually have seemingly turned the corner, and i think thats something thoo to me on a relative basis is more interesting. But yeah, nobodys close to netflix. Nobody can make content cheaper than they do. When you look at the two of them, disney and netflix on a yeartodate basis, tdisneys only trailing netflix by about 2 . Thats a pretty big feat for disney. And the last earnings cycle, disney has held that fwap up. Thats a testament to the changes that igor has made, so i think you can play disney better than netflix, but i think netflix is get ago little bit toppier. I wouldnt short it yet, but im getting close. Up next, final trades. Whatever they may be. All that planning has paid off. Looks like you can make this work. We can make this work. And the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice. I can make this work. That seems to be universal. I can make this work. I can make this work. No wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. Because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. Ameriprise financial. At morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. To help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. Fresh, warm hot dogs when im not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics. Fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso one for you, one for you. Oh, youre a messy one. Cool, right . So cool. Anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq100 innovations. Hot dogs fresh, warm hot dogs before investing carefully read and consider Fund Investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco. Com. Time for the final trade. Lets go around the horn, rebecca patternson. I like gld higher, but given oscars, Annette Bening and nigh yad. Thank you for being with us, rebecca. Always great having you, rebuck ka. Its International Womens day and ive brought a very special woman. Do you want to Say Something . Oh, my final trade, delta airlines. Wonderful. Nicely done, sky. Steve grasso. Congress bipartisanly has agreed to try to ban tiktok nationwide. Thats positive for snapchat. Tim was a heartthrob in college, it should come as no surprise his daughters here, but so is his fan club from georgetown class of 1980. Listen, make some noise in the ndckgrou. [ cheers and applause ] my mission is simple. To make you money. I am here to level the Playing Field for all investors. There is always a sign in there somewhere. I will help you find it. Hey, im jim cramer. My job is not just to entertain but put days in today in context. Thank god to those