And a rocket headed in the wrong direction. Im melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight tim seymour, karen finerfinerman nathan, and mike khouw. We start off with breaking news, the vote in d. C. To vote Kevin Mccarthy out of the speakership. Emily has the latest. Yes, Kevin Mccarthy was ousted as speaker of the house. The house current lip has no speaker. That chair is vacant. There is an acting speaker, but theyre not someone who can actually move legislation, continue the work of the house, and continue the progress that congress is trying to make on a number of different bills. Now, mind you, a lot of republicans still support mccarthy, one of the congressmen came out and thought that he thought, at least 19d 0 republicans still back mccarthy for speaker. But the fact of the matter is, republicans had such a small majority that only eight republicans voting to ougs mccarthy were able to do it. I just spoke with congressman matt gaetz, he just left congress, and he said that as far as who is next, he didnt really have a nay. He mentioned Steve Scalise last night, i asked him about that, he said that tom emmer, mccarthys number three could be good. So, a lot of questions as to who, if anyone, republicans are going to be solidifying behind. And a huge question to see how long this actually lasts, because until a new speaker is named, the house really cannot do its most important work of passing bills and actually legislating. So, a lot of questions here on capitol hill, lots of concerns, and lots of just unknowns about what the next day, the next week, the next month will actually look like. Congress rarely moves very quickly on anything, emily, so, what do you think the timeline will be for this process . Well, i know that a lot of members do want to get things moving and back on track as quickly as possible. I think the events of the last 48 hours came as a shock to many of them. I mean, matt gaetz talked about going ahead and bringing forward with this motion to vacate, but i think there were real questions until last night if he would actually do it. At this point, republicans are going to try to get together, theyre going to chat. I wouldnt be surprised if you see votes on speaker before the end of the week, but at this point, its hard to see how mccarthy gets back to that 218 that hes going to need to become speaker. Emily wilkins in d. C. , thank you. Thank you. Interesting kicker to the events of today, a potential breaking point for the markets here, major indices dropping sharply today as rates continue their march higher. The dow seeing its worst day since march and falling back into negative territory for the year. The s p ending the day just half a percent above its 200day moving average. The nasdaq saw even bigger losses, down nearly 2 . The selloff coming as treasury yields hit another milestone. Tenyear rates touching 4. 8 , the highest level in more than 16 years. The 30year getting within five basis points of 5 . So, will this bond turmoil continue to rock the markets and to your end, particularly, with some of the uncertainty surrounding whats going on in washington, and the uncertainty about yet another shutdown looming, tim. It was an extraordinary day, by any measure, so, the events in washington, we havent seen this done before, but bank of japan was intervening against the yen this morning. The move in the treasury markets is something that also, i think, people are some what shocked by, and if you think about it, we talked about this, we talked about the supply side, we talked about the dynamics where the fed is actually both issuing a Record Number of bonds, but when Central Banks around the world have stopped buying. You have data coming out, and the data is, on some level, i think todays job opening data, which was much stronger than expected. A big increase over july. This is the august data, ahead of a payroll number on friday i think theres much to do about nothing. I dont theres no way the job market is tightening at this point. Theres no way that this information i realize this is more concurrent and more quince dent data than say looking at a payroll number which is very much lagging, but i just think that the market is spooked at the economy is so strong, again, so strong, that the fed doesnt relent here. I think the Biggest Issue here is, and you almost have to pat the fed on the back, its as if the market is saying, the fed wont blink. And this is the same fed that people were so critical of, not holding the line on, so that was the message the fed needed to get across, starting with jackson hole, and that was the last time. The last time, the additional vector of not just how high, but for how long. Finally, it seems like the market has snapped into, yes, they are going to be high for a long time. Yes, and that 50 basis points off the table of next years they thought would be cuts are gone. So, that was a very strong statement. So, i dont know right now if were in the, we need some bad news about the economy to help this market, or if that would just be seen as bad news. So, we have next week, i think, were going to get threes, tens and 30year auctions, well see how those go. I dont know if it was the jolt, i dont know if it was the market that was sort of on pins and needles today because of the threat of the House Speaker turmoil, because that did happen last night. Im a little bit surprised it actually happened, to be honest. Doesnt seem like theres a great plan in place, but well see. Didnt know. It was a volatile market for sure, if you are like me and, you know, long equities, its a difficult day. Only thing that worked is hedges, but im always, always net long. Net losing money for sure, but i dont nope, im sticking it out. I do think that i want to see earnings, i like when we can look at the economy and earnings and how companies do, thats sort of the kind of tangible data i like to look at. Thats probably not a bad setup. Considering the weakness we have and were going to go right into Bank Earnings and theyre going to be very depressed, if you think about it. Bank of america, citigroup making new multiyear lows today. They are below the levels in march during the regional banking crisis. Not the beneficiary of the big regionals that went under and some of the stuff that weve heard from, lets say jpmorgan, benefits from the deposits theyve gotten. If the stork mack market is a disco discounting mechanism, if im just looking at my screens right now, okay, i see the xrt, which is retail is down on the year, i see banks that are down on the year. Industrials that are flat. Materials that are down on the year. I see i mean, the list goes on and own. Health care is down on the year. Weighed s p is down on the year. The russell 2,000 small caps are down on the year. All i kind of trying to say here and ive been saying this far little bit. Its not that healthy of a stock market, in my opinion. Now, it was okay when we still had that concentration, right, when we were at the highs and now were almost down 10 in the s p market cap weighed, because there was all this talk about broadening out. Under the hood, we saw some weakening. My point is, like, the lower we go here, as we get towards some technical levels, i know the s p is very near that 200day moving average, the uptrend thats been in place since last october, these are the things you want to keep an eye on. If some of the bigger names in the market that have to do with most of the gains in the broad indices, the microsoft, the apple, weve been talking about this, they have broken down. Technically, they are broken, but they are still up a lot because they were up apple traded well again. Youre right. Youre right, by the way, but apples where else are you going to go right now, other than, you know, tbills . You know what i mean . Youre going to apple, youre going to microsoft right now. Theyre finding a little bit of support right now as money is moving out of other sectors. The hurdle is going to be very high for that investor to decide, mike, to put that dollar into stocks versus bonds at this point, and the hurdle gets higher and higher each day with rates going higher and higher at this point. Yeah, well there are some stocks that might behave a little bit more like bonds do or will. We own constellation, which is going to be reporting soon, we own johnson johnson. You know, these are the kinds of stocks, theyre low beta, which is going to be helpful in a market like this. Rising rates are bad for companies that dont generate cash flow now that basically have high duration and high beta, then you sort of have to look for the opposite if you are going to be long stocks. Like karen, we have to be long stocks, so, those are the ones were going to own. And we have picked up a few financials going into earnings, simply because, maybe theres a lot of bad news priced in. We swapped goldman for morgan, simply because i think this additional volatility is probably going to benefit on the trading side more on the Asset Management side. But i think thats kind of the choices youre going to make. Youre looking for the best house on a bad block right now. The stock markets a bad block. The bond markets a bad block, too. Whats really interesting, people are talking about, isnt it a great time to own bonds . It hasnt been a great time to own a lot of bonds. Anybody that extended duration in the last three weeks and told by someone, this is the time, you have to get out there, i think its fascinating. By the way, my haribo bear index here, which is now at four gummys on the desk here were at a place where sentiment is really awful. And you have a place here, too, dans talking about the positioning of the s p. If you remove the svb chaos of march, this is if we go were actually ten bips away from the 200day. If you traded through the downside on the 200day tomorrow, would be for the first time, if you remove svb, going all the way back to january, february of 22 this is back when the fed was stepping up, we were getting 75 basis point cuts on the horizon. Im just telling you this is a place where, if the stock market is breaking down through the 200, we havent seen that in a year and a half. You can talk about svb, i would make an argument thats isolated. Doesnt mean there arent tensions, but the market itself, the s p, is measured by the 200day, holding, not trading through. This is a year and a half. And that gets back to the beginning of this cycle where we didnt know how aggressive the fed was going to be. If terms of the bond volatility that weve seen, because it has been extraordinary. Tlt saw a record day on volume. Yes. In terms of shares traded, which is extraordinary to think about. Look at our chart of the day. Think about the positioning here in the bond market in terms of the wall of issuance we are expecting. Who is going to be that buyer . Definitely not the fed. And its not china, and this is this is a chart that has been going had been making the rounds today. Basically said 300 billion in bonds have been sold since 2021, 4 billion just since april of this year by china, and they dont have additional dollars to recycle back into the bond market. And maybe politically if they did, maybe they wouldnt want to. Well, a couple things to that. I have been short the tlt, i covered another third. I only have a third left, which feels painful to do, but to that, who is going to buy them . Whoever is shorting into this. We know when theyre going to issue debt. So, mel, are you saying theyre uninvestable . Am i saying bonds are the treasury. The whole curve. Who is the buyer . Like, you know, we did that once, didnt we do that once we did that on china. Chinese equity market. U. S. Treasury market . I dont know what youre talking about. You had such a great trade on, feels like youre getting piggish. And you mentioned the volume on a very liquid etf. Im kind of picking at calls in this space right here, because i i have vol is cheap. When you have that vol, the way its bun moving relative to the way the s p has been moving, it could set up, like a coil spring in my opinion. Very bearish out there. All right, the latest jitters over surging yields come a day after Rick Santelli right here on this sat warned about how high he thinks rates could go from here. We have a lot of potential room to run to the upside, so, if somebody asks me and held a gun to my head, said listen, the worst casescenario, tenyear, id say in the next seven years, you should see 13. 5 . Wherare you serious . And yes, i did say, are you serious . Our next guest believes Interest Rates could go higher, as well. Welcome to new york, jim. You think we see 13 . You know, i dont know about 13 , but the larger issue that rick was saying, were in a secular bear market, it started in august of 2020, there are several more years to go. Now, you could have a year or two rally within, in the middle of a second ewe lair bear market in bonds. Im in that camp. I still think that maybe seven years from today, were at least 4. 5 , 5 , where we are right now, so, theres no real drop in rates and it will probably be higher from there. 13 that would take something bad to happen a lot worse than i anti anticipate. I dont think were near the end of this move in the bond market. Okay, so, in the immediate term, how high can we go before we settle into that 4. 5 range or so, which sounds like you are saying will be the new normal for the tenyear yield. Yeah, because i think 4. 5 is kind of like fair value. And were just a little bit above fair value right now. I think what youre seeing in the bond market is a capitulation of good old fashion ed where basically, most of the year, Bond Investors have been long, been trying to argue why were going to have a recession, why theres going to be a rally, and have been getting their brains beat in and they cant take it anymore, and i think what really kicked this one off was september 20th, the fed meeting. What would help a bond rally, if you want the bonds to rally, fed come out hawkish. Theyre going to raise rates a lot more, theyre going to be more vigilant about inflation. If theyre done, and the market senses that theres still some inflation left, they dont want to touch bonds. And thats what has been killing the bond market. So, the more the fed talks about being done, waiting, assessing how all the rate hikes theyve done, the more i think theyre making it worse. And you could see an overshoot through five in the next couple of weeks, but then, i think we might set up, you know, a high that could last for a little time. Do you think the fed is watching the volatility in the bond market and do you think the fed cares . I dont think they care yet, because yes, of course theyre watching the volatility in the bond market, but theyre asking the question, is it retarding the company . Jay powell got it yesterday about some Small Business owners from inflation. They are hearing it from that end, but not necessarily enough that theyre considering changing policy. Jim, how about Energy Prices . You think this is playing into it, its a bit ironic, bau we strip out food and energy from our inflation numbers. Or the fed seems to. Im of the view, were in a super cycle, im of the view there are structural reasons why Energy Prices stay higher. Therefore, i dont think you get relief any time soon from that. Exactly. Im in a similar type of view that Energy Prices are going to go higher. What that means is, well have more year over year and cpi inflation. Does that mean the fed is going to raise rates . No. But lets go back to yesterday when jay powell heard it about inflation. If higher gasoline prices, higher Energy Prices, say push inflation back to 4 , they cant talk about easing next year. Yeah. In the face of 4 . So, what higher Energy Prices do is, they kill the potential for rate cuts next year, maybe they dont add rate hikes this year or later, you know, in the winter. So, why is there talk from bostick today about a cut at the end of 2024, do you think . That goes in the face of what the fed wants to telegraph. Right. I think thats a mistake on their part, because theyre operating under this assumption that 2 inflation is still atenaa attainable and coming, and the market is maybe towards 3 , 4 inflation. But it gets back to what is fair value on Interest Rates. And we might not be that far above fair value. What theyd be better off arguing is, dont just say, well, were very close to 2 . Explain to us why you think were going to go back to that precovid or prepandemic level of 2 inflation, because i think a lot of people in the market are really starting to question whether thats going to happen. So, jim, if they do settle at a higher inflationary they dont have to settle it, it just has to exist for all the reasons that tim just mentioned, maybe its Energy Prices. But the economy will weaken, right . And if we do have this stagflationary environment, if were looking at the s p 500 trading at 18 times which is the tenyear average, versus a period where Interest Rates were far lower throughout that sort of thing, dont you think equities are a little mispriced . This is not a place that weve been in a very long time, and so, i just feel like the equity market is not really woken up to what a new reality might be. Well, its waking up to it. The drawdown in the stock market now is the largest weve seen since we hit the bottom in october of last year. But i do think youre right, there is an alternative. The alternative, lets start with a 5. 5 money market rate. University of chicagos done longterm studies, longterm, the stock market will give you 9 . I give you twothirds of that, with almost no risk. That is an option. So now, we are going to have to see the stock market compete with it. And you mentioned it earlier in the show, everything but the magnificent seven is essentially flat or down on the year, and everybodys looking at 5. 5 money market rates and they think thats been the best call all year, thats what the stock markets going to have to contend with. Does it mean the stock market collapses . No. But it just means that that marginal dollar thats sitting in cash, its not 2019, when it was sitting in cash at zero. Its sitting in cash at 5. 5 , well just sit there. It is going to be harder to drag ma that money out. Jim, great to have you with us. Thank you. Come by any time. Nice to have him in new york. Nice to see you. So, if the stock market needs to compete with tbills and money markets, theres got to be a drawdown. Andy says 3900 would be that drawdown in order to adjust to where rates are right now. Thats a big ways down, 6 , 7 . That would be if it mathematically worked out that, you know, they had the exact drawdown. I dont want to go against andy, hes really smart, particularly on the bond side. So i that would be a bigger drawdown than im expecting. I could take a little bit of pain, like, were in a little bit of pain. I can take a little bit more pain and really feel okay, but that would be that would be very bad pain and time to buy. Mike . Yeah, i mean, lets just say that what dan, the word that dan just brought up a few minutes ago, actually came to pass, if we got into a stagflationary environment, i think thats actually conservative in terms of the potential downside. Thats a really toxic situation for risk assets. Its a toxic situation for fiscal budgets, as well. You need Economic Growth and you need reasonable rates for basically governments to borrow. And that would be a disaster, so, i think we could be sharply lower, so, thats really the reason why inflation has to be crushed here, however painful it is. And i think that as long as the fed sort of stays the course, then we probably are going to sort of stabilize down around 4,000, probably higher, i mean, i hope so, because were long, but if they dont, then i think we could go sharply lower. Look at what happened in the 1970s. Coming up, a bingeing ing to your wallet. What you should expect from your next netflix bill. Plus, sofi so low. Our options traders are n chtioning themselves in the fite name. That and more when fast money returns. Back in two. That first time you take a step back and see everything youve accomplished. I made that. With your very own online store. I sold that. And you can manage it all in one place. I built this. And it was easy with godaddy. I am doing this. With a partner that puts you first. Start for free at godaddy. Com sell welcome back to fast money. Are price hikes ahead for netflix . The wall street journal reporting the streaming platform plans to raise prices within months after the actors strike ends. No details on how much. Shares popping in Early Morning trade, but ending the day lower. Has not been confirmed by any other outlet or by netflix. Karen, what do you make of this . Yeah, so, when it did pop, i was thinking briefly that it was netflix that was saying netflix was going to raise prices, which is different than someone else saying that netflix is going to raise prices, but i am long, i think its a good thing. Obviously, when you raise prices, and your costs dont really move, thats a great thing for the bottom line. So, the stock is down a lot. They had that great last quarter. Its certainly not cheap, but its a premium multiple for sure, but it deserves it. I think whats kind of more interesting is this a bad thing or a good thing for the other streamers . You know, mike khouw brought up on our call, as well, maybe you are taking more wallet share away and theres less left for the other streamers. Or maybe its an umbrella, prices are higher, everyone else can move Prices Higher without being sort of penalized. Well, we have mike khouw here, so, mike, what are your thoughts . How lucky is that . Yeah. Well, actually, its funny. Netflix is not unreasonably priced when you take a look at their eps and free cash growth. I think weve always thought of this as a very expensive company. It isnt really now. I also think they have a sticky customer base. I can certainly say thats true in our house and im not trying to encourage them to raise our subscriber fees, but theres a good chance they will and theres a good chance that were going to pay it when they do. I do wonder, though, about things like disney and some of the others. You know, weve got, i think, espn also some of the theyve recently increased prices for some of their subscriber services, and i always thought of them as being sticky, but theyre seeing competition. We used to think of espn as the mustsee content in terms of sports, and they arent really anymore with the addition of things like youtubes subscriber services. But netflix has a sticky position in households and i think they are going to raise those fees and people are going to probably accept it. This would leehappen after the actors strike, we dont know the details of that agreement, but their costs could go higher. If actors are going to demand a bigger share of the streaming revenues, then thats, you know, however long that property exists on the netflix mrplatfor theyre paying out. So, the margins may not i have to think those payments as a percentage of the margins is still small. One other thing i wanted to add, there was a personnel change on the adsupported part of the business, which, a couple of weeks ago, one of the executives said this is a little more difficult than we thought. Happening slower than we thought. Still in it . No, im hoping to buy it back lower, and, you know, there are been comments, jpmorgan had a conference recently where they talked a little bit about Margin Expansion not being as extensive. It would be surprising to see them raising prices where theyve been able to effectively claw back borrowers, people that are boborrowing . Cheat . Steal . My dad called me, asked if youre watching the quarterback, talking about patrick mahomes. We love him, as well. He said, i dont have netflix anymore, because i was using your brothers oh, sharing. Thats what they called it. Dad, you serious . Going to come after my dad. Sorry about that. A lot more fast money to come. Heres whats coming up next. Searching for safety . Well, two old standbys may not offer the comfort youre looking for. The chart master is sending up a warning sign ahead. Plus, sofi slump. Shares heading south, even as student loan payments start up again. So, how are options traders positioning in the name . The details, next. Youre watching asmoft ney, live from the Nasdaq Market site in times square. Were back right after this. The biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. It still does. What can you do with spy . Welcome back to fast money. Sofi plunging today, down more than 17 in the last month. The losses come even as millions of americans prepare for student loan payments to resume. Something that should give a boost to the stock. Todays move catching the eye of options traders. So, mike, what did you see . Yeah, so, this one traded more than two times its average daily put volume. I should point out this is nothing new. More than 2 million open interest on the put side. The trades that we saw today were really rolls down and out. That ands where people have already made bearish bets pushed those bets by going out further in time and to lower strikes. That included a roll of 15,000 of the october 8 puts down to the november 7s, selling what they had previously bought. And thats indicating they believe the stock has at least 13 additional downside over the course of the next six weeks or so. Wow. What does that tell us, dan . Look at whats going on in the broader financial space. After a big runup in the buy now, pay layer. This is coming at a time where this is a demographic where theyre going to start paying back student loans. That was some of the excitement, just a couple months ago after they reported and guided. Ill make one other point, like, if they are going to be able to avoid, lets say, some of the credit pitfalls that some folks who are buying these downside puts. They are expected to hit profitability for the First Time Since theyve been a publicly traded company. That could change the dynamic of the story. I just think were in a world where a lot of Business Models just dont compute anymore, and its going to get a lot worse. So, the cost of rates, the cost of financing for a lot of these Consumer Finance companies, leaving aside the credit dynamics, that a trillion and a half in student loans, you cant refi them, theres a lot of things people want to do that they cant. We peaked with buy now pay later and the rocket mortgages of the world and all these places, and the mortgage markets, as well, i think the Business Models are challenged, but the cost of financing means the businesses dont really make money at these levels. Coming up, playing it safe. It might be harder than you think. The safety trade skating on thin ice. So, could these two sectors be in store for more pain . The chart master, carter worth, is updating his call on the beaten down space. Where he sees these trades heading next. More fast money after this. Tcusmissed a most of fast . Cah any time on the go. Follow the fast money podcast. Were back right after this. Welcome back to fast money. Todays selloff pushing the dow negative for the year. The index dropping more than 400 points as yields spiked to their highest levels since 2007. The s p falling 1. 3 and the nasdaq snapping a fourday winning streak, down 1. 8 . Some big drops in names across sectors. Home depot, gm, lululemon, Goldman Sachs all sinking in todays selloff. And if you are just tuning in, the u. S. House voting to remove Kevin Mccarthy as speaker, in an unprecedented move that only adds to the uncertainty overhanging the market. House republicans planning to meet later tonight to chart out steps to replace mccarthy. Frontrunner seems to be emerging, and of course, there is the ticking timeline of the shutdown. We only have so many days to go until we have to revisit that issue, and will we actually see a shutdown then, tim . I dont know, but the dynamic also around the goals of, i think, some, at least the more conservative gops in terms of fiscal cuts and theres an agenda out there that they were seeking to get, and i actually this stalls it, i dont think it get as more aggressive agenda in place. Meantime, theres been no safety in the safety trade recently. Utilities and staples seeing heavy losses over the last month, as Interest Rates climb and the Consumer Outlook remains murky. Our next guest called this just last week. Carter worth of Worth Charting is back to lay out where these sectors are headed next. Carter . What a mess. So, very safe, sort of low beta areas of the market also taking it on the chain. But utilities actually reversed today, interestingly. After being down 6. 5 just from fridays close, you had every stock in the xlu up but two, and my hunch is that you have a bit of a capitulation low. Lets look at a few charts and figure it out together. So, very longterm first. And this is the irony. These are not exciting businesses, of course, and yet, and youll see here, if you were to go from the absolute peak of the dot com era, march 24th, 2000, of course, utilities have really lagged the market. By a lot. Market up some 180 and utilities up 70 . Look at this next chart. This is the total return of the s p 500 Utilities Sector versus the total return of the s p. Utilities are still ahead, even with this recent selloff, 23 years later. It just shows dividends are an important part of the game. But lets go to the here and now and look at the utility chart. We collapsed out through the bottom of this formation. You can call it a descending triangle, doesnt matter what you call it, its a bad setup and it has broken. But we reversed intraday and i think well snap back here. Only sector to end in the green. But staples, i dont think its over quite yet. And so one way to draw the lines here, another and final chart what we have is a reference point. Do we get down to the 52week lows, and i think we do. So, shortterm, tradeable, bounce, you see ahead for utilities, but staples, more pain ahead. Are there any charts within staples, carter, that look like any sort of refuge . Well, not particularly. One thats not welltraded, cocacola bottling, of all things, is down to a level where rebound potential is high. All right, carter, thank you. Thats staggering to think that utilities still have outperformed since the dot com boom imagine if that was our show. Right. For 23 years. But think about the world where there has been no alternative. So, this is a world of tina, and this is, where, again, dividend yields have been very important. The underperformance of the utility sector has been staggering. Doefr 16 over the last 12 sessions and underperformed by the s p by 450 bips yesterday. According to a couple of folks that i was reading, the fourthworst showing hes ever had. So, as carter said, its been pretty shocking whats gone on here. I think the challenge is to the business model. Not only that, i think the reversal today and it really did feel like capitulation. Thats what ill expect youll see in tlt. And it sets up for a trader move. Carter mentioned that breakdown at 60, thats where you get the ricochet back to. Theres plenty of folks theyll get back in and press that short. Mike, you play utilities for a bounce . Well, i bought some calls in next era energy which is the largest constituent of xlu today, but i wouldnt buy the stock and im not completely cown vinced. Heres one of the problems, and that is, you know, next era has had negative Free Cash Flow for many years and, of course, as we were just discussing, utilities are a place where people looking for yield would go, so, in a higher rate environment, and a higher yield environment, they have two big challenges. The cost of capital is going up, they have negative Free Cash Flow and a lot of debt, so, thats not great, and investors have other places to go. That, too, is not great, though its trading five turns cheaper than the market and i saw that reversal, and thats the reason i bought those calls. All right, coming up, its not just eli lilly customers slimming down, the stock has been shedding weight, too whats behind the pharma plflop . Pharma flop . More fast money in two. Sk with gold bond. You can age on your own terms. Retinol overnight means. The smoothing benefits of retinol. Are now for your whole body. Plus, fastworking crepe corrector diminishes wrinkled skin in just two days. Gold bond. Champion your skin. Every day, businessesin everywhere are asking is it possible . With comcast business. It is. Is it possible to help keep our Online Platform safe from cyberthreats . Absolutely. Can we provide health care virtually anywhere . We can help with that. Is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues . We can help with that, too. With the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. Its not just possible. Its happening. Icy hot. Ice works fast. Heat makes it last. Feel the power of contrast therapy. So you can rise from pain. Icy hot. Welcome back to fast money. E li lilly in a lull today. The latest drop coming after the drugmaker inked another bio. This time, of point bio pharma for 1. 4 billion. This is the third deal of the year, as the Company Looks to bolster its pipeline, even amidst Strong Demand for its diabetes and weight loss drugs. This is in the radio pharmaceutical sector, which uses radio to treat cancer in a very targeted fashion, tim. So, puts it in competition with a drug thats already out by novartis. They have a very rich stock. Good time to do a deal . Its a great time to do a deal with a currency thats trading at a premium and certainly based upon forward multiples and where weve discussed the Addressable Market in their weight loss drug. So, its an exciting time for the company. I know that was the copy that we read going into the commercial, you know, its i would hardly call it a flop. I would just say, this is a case where a company that had an extraordinary run. Carter might look at this and see maybe a head and shoulders formation here. Theres no question youve actually taken kind of the top off. And i think youve got a case here where the competitive landscape, the news flow in terms of the risks around these drugs and analysts catching their breath in terms of, this is going to be the only game in town, i think is part of whats going on here. You have to wonder if theres t toppy action going on here. The payment professor for restaurants, thats going to see a decline in business because of these glp everybody. When you get to the ancillary trades, then it starts to become, oh, you know you can outthink yourself in markets all the time, and this feels like that. We were talking about this before, i mean, throw novo and lilly into some of the sentiment trades that have worked well this year. At one point, maybe a month ago, these had a combined market cap of a trillion dollars. Think about the last time we were able to say that about a story in and around Something Like that. To me, i think they also just exhibit a lot of the, you know, irrational exuberance about stories in a market thats not great. Im going to keep saying it. Theres not a lot of great things going on. This is one good story and its reflective in the valuations. They have too big gaps they are likely to fill. This is right at that gap. The next move down, its taking the elevator down to 440. Im not sure it will, but thats the price action, and the last 15 days, 12 of them have been down. Karen . Well, the bars set very high, right . They have a little bit of time to fill, because theyre not there yet, right . They dont have their product out yet, but its expensive for sure. I think, though i bought some back, higher than here, but i think its not going to trade exactly what its worth over time. Its going its not going to be totally linear. Im hanging onto it. And there are chapters to this weight loss story. Mounjaro for weight loss is going to get approval. Theyre going have the sleep about pina study, the results should come out at the beginning of next year, mike, so, there are different catalysts, potentially, to this. Its not just weight loss drug and the stories out there and thats it. Going to need some catalysts at 15 times revenues. When you could have bought it at 15 times earnings ten years ago. I dont see the sense in chasing this one year. I really dont. Im guessing youre going to get a better opportunity, probably a much better opportunity. All right. Coming up, and the survey says caleb silver is here and hes brought along the results from his latest investor poll. Stick around to find out what is on top of traders minds. And ahead on mad money, jim is chatting with the oshkosh ceo. More fast money in two. Icy hot. Ice works fast. Heat makes it last. Feel the power of contrast therapy. So you can rise from pain. Icy hot. Since my citi custom cash® card automatically adjusts to earn me more cash back in my top eligible category. Suddenly lifes feeling a little more automatic. Like doors opening wherever i go. [sound of airplane overhead] even the ground is moving for me yall seeing this . Wild and i dont even have to activate anything. Oooooohhh. Automatic sashimi earn cash back that automatically adjusts to how you spend with the citi custom cash® card. [mind blown explosion noise] welcome back to fast money. Weve got a news alert here on ford. The Company Making a new offer to the uaw. Phil lebeau has the details. This offer was made monday night, and this is the seventh offer that ford has made to the uaw. Remember, the uaw made an offer a previous monday, so, not this week, the week before, ford is now answering that offer with this one. Some of the details, theyre not going into at this point, but they have said that they have increased their overall wage offer. It is north of 20 , exactly how much, the company is not saying at this point, including a doubledigit increase right off the bat for the uaw members. Also including cost of living adjustments. A reduction in the wage progression. It used to be from eight steps down to four, now theyre saying its greater than eight to four, whether its eight to three or eight to two, but the number of wage progressions has been reduced. No tiers for new hires for the uaw, and from fords perspective, this is the kind of offer that it believes can move the needle. Now, does this get a deal done . Way too early to say. But certainly, melissa, this is a step in the right direction, in terms of ford and the uaw now having a new base of which they can start negotiations, or continue negotiations, i should say. And again, this is the seventh offer from ford and an increase in the wage, north of 20 , not saying exactly how far north, but it is north of 20 . Melissa . This significantly would close the gap. If its north of 20 , then you have doubledigit cost of living adjustments, that brings you up to 30, and much closer to the 40 uaw was asking for. Well in theory, if you want to see the uaw calculating it that way. You are correct. The significance here is that, look, there was a real breakdown in terms of the communication between ford and the uaw last week, and that was it showed up clear on friday in terms of the comments from uaw president shawn fain. He essentially said that jim farley, ceo of ford, was lying about the state of negotiations. Ford held a press briefing with jim farley and the top executives, saying, you know, voicing their frustration at the way the talks have been handled by the uaw. So, now you have a new offer from ford. Now, is that wage offer and the cost of living adjustment, and the other offers that are also in there, including taking temps up to 20, 21 an hour, i dont know the exact number there, but starting previously, they were lower than that. All of that, you put that together, is that enough to get the ball across the goal line . Hard to say at this point, but a step in the right direction. Phil, thank you. Phil lebeau. Rough couple of months for stock markets may have investors a little on edge. 1 in 4 say they are investing less due to recent market volatility. Caleb silver is here with a first look. Caleb, why are they investing less . Theyre fearful. Nowhere to run to, nowhere to hide. But the bank, you heard jim earlier, theyre hanging out in the bank, hanging out in banking pr products. And you can really see it in the extra 10,000 question, which i love, what would you do with an extra 10k. Still cds. And why not . Because you can get 5 , 5. 5 . Probably going to get 6 sometime soon out of the bank in some form or not. Thats what theyre doing with their money. They dont want to put money into the market. These are active stock investors looking for a reason to believe. They just dont see anything. They have a lot of things on their list of worries, too. And what tops it . Inflation still tops it, because thats kind of the underlying thing, but the 2024 president ial election crept in there for the first time. I dont think its about who is going to get elected, i think its the dysfunctional political process we have here in the united states. Rep mccarthy being ousted today, just another example. The credit downyards. Thats new to the list. What about the mag seven . Do they still love them . They still love them. Those are their favorite stocks. We ask them every single time we do this, every two months, what are your favorite stocks, what do you hold only for a long time . It looks like the mag seven. A lot of those stocks are being heavily shorted right now. So, their favorites are going to be under pressure if this plays out. This survey period did not capture the rise in Interest Rates. The last fed meeting, the last hold, so, we stopped at last week. It is as new as last friday. The bad news has just been everywhere and you feel it in the sentiment. What do you think the reaction will be to the rise in rates . More money into cds . Absolutely. The bank is asafe place to be. They lollipops in there. The anxiety is not about the stock market, but their personal finances. Are they going to be able to withstand this . I really do like those lollipops. Who doesnt like a dumdum . People might say that about us. How about the next ten years, anybody change that, the outlook, has that changed in the last three months . I was surprised a little bit by this, but we asked them, whats the best tenyear investment, we heard the gallup polls, people talking about real estate. They are heavily into stocks. Stocks and Everything Else is way down the list. They are looking for a reason to believe. They dont see one, though, in the near term, maybe the longterm, maybe ten years out, a few years out. D. Ght now, super scare caleb, thank you. As always. Caleb silver. Up next, final trades. The first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. We just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. Start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. Start for free at godaddy. Com is it possible to fall in love with your home. Before you even step inside . Discover the Magnolia Home james hardie collection. Available now in siding colors, styles and textures. Curated by joanna gaines. This is american infrastructure, a prime target for cyberattacks. But the same aipowered security that protects all of google also defends these services for everyone who lives here. Time for the final trade. Mike khouw . Cheap to the market, cheap to its peers, earnings preopen on thursday. Constellation brands. Tim seymour . Energy super cycle. Tte after the div, stay there. Chairwoman . Yes, happy birthday to my husband and my final trade is tlt, buy. Dan . Lawrence is the man. Happy birthday. Xlu. Tnkou. Carters call on that ha y for watching my mission is simple. To make you money. Im here to level the Playing Field for all investors. I promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now. A. Welcome to mad money. Other people want to make friends im trying to save you a little money. My job is to not entertain but educate and put everything in context. Call me at one 807 43 cnbc or tweet me at jim cramer. Enough hasnt been enough. Theres been fear