Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20240713

And you told your club members this morning were done selling for now. You raised the cash for when or if the market starts to revert to its old ways. Weve been selling into this strength and have to set up for another leg down why . Were about to go into earnings. Mcdonalds this morning reported some bad numbers and withdrew forecasts. We may see more of those once april 14th comes around. Its earnings season when we come back from the holiday, i think well have earnings cut earnings cut. I donennt think this is didnt where do we think earnings are trending, with so many guidance pulls, we got more out of levi last night how do we know what a reasonable model for this years models are . Both pinterest and levis rallied, why they said we cant forecast, but we have good strength in the core business. Levis talks about theyre an iconic brand and they can do well i cant hang my has the on that. Those stocks are down big. I would tell you that there are companies that will have better numbers. And they are few and far between. When you have a constellation brands, they say numbers are too low, buy walmart, numbers too low, buy. When you have someone who says numbers are too high, sell thats no different from any other time unless you tell me theres going to be in davids world something good, like a tmobile. I keep thinking they did this great merger, they will go up. David, i see companies that with businesses that are faltering, i dont want to own the them i dont blame you given all we dont know and frankly what the recovery will look like or what things will look like when we reopen and how that will rehapper happen when you say my world, are you saying m a dont expect any of that soon. I was thinking look at ratheon. Look how well that does. Maybe that was a bargain because people didnt realize initially theres real synergies tmobile keeps going up. If i were a banker i would say i know you think this is a terrible time, look at the acquirers and how well theyre doing. I wish they would do that. That would be a sign of a pulse besides giving credit to companies that were surprised are getting credit no doubt if we were to suddenly see m a where one company says hey, i have confidence in my future, enough i want to buy you, and they have enough confidence in where the market is now or they feel like whoever the seller is, that they need to sell, that would be a positive sign. Im not picking that up. The bankers im speaking to im speaking to plenty during the course of the day, all from their homes, theyre talking to their clients. Theyre talking about what the future will look like. Most of them not sure what that is they are expecting that there is going to be a wave of consolidation of some kind, certainly the weak needing to go, needing to sell potentially. Right now, no. And its funny theres a lot of different reasons, whether its volatility in the stock market, not being able to really determine what an adequate price is, whether its perhaps worries in the financing market, even though that doesnt seem concerning. Theres one key reason, when you do a deal, you still need the two principles at some point to meet facetoface. They cant do that right now no. I mean, david, are you going to fist pump on a deal . I wouldnt fist pump and you yare not zooming to get a deal done. You need a facetoface. It sounds funny but thats one of many issues on why youre not going to see a lot of deals announced right now. Carl, one thing is certain, this is going to be if this is the new world, three months from now we wont feel like what david said well say listen, you know what . I love you virtual. Docusign business cant stop because we cant get in a room. Maybe the new normal is were not going to get in rooms. Maybe were all just germfilled antiparadise. I just feel like well have to get ready to see a big if u. P. S. Were to get together with fedex, this is not going to happen, but if they did, they could go against amazon. If the Big Oil Companies got together like they did in the 80s, maybe they would survive if they cant because they cant get a handshake, shame on them we have to its a great the first conversation, jim, the first conversation is often the most important one and its very hard theres a lot of business that will get done virtually. Its happening now the but actually when it comes to a deal, you still need to sit down in the same room with your opposite number and talk about things, either at the beginning more often at the beginning than the end dont forget antitrust the world youre describing there, any of those deals will require enormous antitrust scrutiny thats another gaining issue on why you probably wont see those kinds of deals unless theres true and total destruction in some of these industries, and there may be jim, your point about the social dynamics are starting to fill in company by company im thinking of three examples one, lowes is announcing the creation of social distance ambassadors within the store two, target curbside, up 13. Thats an alltime high according to cowen and then this burnstein disney call they go to 107 from 155. Theyre looking at zero park attend dance in the seco attendance in the second half, even as iger talks to barrons about taking our temperature as we enter parks some brands are iconic. Maybe youre going to say listen, its iconic but i wont pay anything for it. Youre going to say iconic when this thing is over, then you want to own disney do you want to own it at 79, 90 . I think you want to opewn it. I think that cowen call on target is interesting. Why . Because lets take macys. Macys stores are closed for the most part. How do you do Curbside Pickup at a closed store i had prologic on last night, they are saying we have six square feet per person of retail space in the uk, and we have 23 in the u. S we have way too many retailers i know this is a brutal darwinian way of thinking about what will happen i envision whole parking lots to do testing where there used to be Retail Stores and i really and truly am concerned that an outfit like macies has to be able to open. We had manny on this morning, the ceo of pvh and on mad money. He keeps saying Retail Stores were not built to be closed. Theres so many retailers that will not get through this period without mergers. They should be shotgunning right now. Same on them if they dont they wont be in existence jim, you know, its an youre right its very hard to imagine how theyre going to be able to survive this period. I dont know. In a bit well talk about the highyield market opening up for certain businesses that have taken it straight on here in terms of getting or having a tough time retail hard to imagine in some ways it seems to have accelerated what is already coming thats what prologic was saying to me last night. They make it so amazon delivers what you ordered yesterday to your house today all the big etailors u s use tm we were marveling, what we thought would happen over many years is happening over many weeks or months. Thats why we keep wondering what will happen to the Real Estate Investment trust. There was a big short covering, i think it was a counter trend move yesterday the cruise ships were up use if you were in the 8 carnival, you made a fortune in that thing. The Real Estate Investment trust were involved with did incredibly well. I say good a chance to lighten up were not going to have as many retailers, how will we have as many tenants if i were the cruise ship companies, i would get together in a room and say we need to be one company. We dont need to compete anymore. We need a standard of conduct in our industry that says you need to wear masks, take temperatures thats okay. I want osha to tell me they verified every Single Person who worked at home depot that i go to today well need that. Thats a new world i dont understand why people dont understand that. I want everyones temperature taken. Whats the matter with that . Its a bad, tough time i want people to shop. Jim, the one thing on the temperature, is that a lot of people are asymptomatic and dont have a temperature thats the insidiousness of this virus to a certain extent that you can be transmitting it conceivably without having a temperature. Its not clear to me that that is the answer. We have to have gloves and masks, we have temperature all were doing is trying to limit the contact we have with people and try to make it so its less likely we get the virus. We cannot eradicate this virus by using anything we do im sick and tired of hearing were plateauing, thats good. They plateaued in madrid the other day where my daughter is if thats a plateau, its wiley coyote we do not want this. We want eradication. Short of eradication we have to do a lot of things so you know what well make it so the odds are better that we dont get sick. Thats all we can do let better the odds. Where is osha . The Labor Department good question, jim. I googled it the other day. First time we mentioned that agency in light of it. Its Occupational Safety and health administration. I thought so. Theyll have huge responsibilities in making sure employees are safe and that customers are safe the old days when i switched into that jimmy chill mode, i would say, hey osha should be front and center. They should be saying heres how we protect workers heres how we protect the customers who come in, really the workers. David, youre right. Temperature, theres still a gap. The abbott test i think if we can ramp up the abbott test in one month, everybody has to be tested is this a new world . Its a new world until we eradicate. Polio was a new world until they eradicated youre right. All these things go back to the challenges that well have in terms of reopening the economy and how that will work its so vitally important that we figure it out and we get there and we get there as soon as possible. But theres no shortage of different impediments in terms of checking off those boxes where people will feel comfortable going out and doing things in their life again in a robust way theres a difference between going to the Grocery Store, getting your temperature taken and taking a long vacation and hoping your temperature is not high once you get there. Exactly well take a quick break. More squawk on the street continues in a men yes. Its the first word of any new discovery. But when allergies attack, the excitement fades. Allegra helps you say yes with the fastest nondrowsy allergy relief and turning a half hearted yes, into an all in yes. Allegra. Live your life, not your allergies. Shbecause Xfinity Mobilehen ygives you more flexible data. You can choose to share data between lines, mix with unlimited, or switch it up at any time. All on the most reliable wireless network. Which means you can save money without compromising on coverage. Get more flexible data, the most reliable network, and more savings. Plus, get 200 off when you buy an eligible phone. Thats simple, easy, awesome. Go to xfinitymobile. Com today. I know were on information overload, you cant get enough from the man, Steven Munuchin good to have you back. Great to be with all of you phenomenal, successful this program, phenomenally. So successful we need more money already. Its small and mediumsized businesses, Community Banks doing a terrific job larger banks not doing as well can we now do the trillion dollar war bond . We know Speaker Pelosi is in favor of it, larry kudlow is in favor of it. I want to give the treasury money. I feel helpless, so do 317 million other people can we have a way to give you money so you can beat covid . Jim, heres my idea for the 50year. Well be auctioning off 30 years and 20 years, buy one of each. Its the 50year that will give us twice as much money, and we appreciate your efforts. So 50year, we would be able can we earmark it or is it a 50year treasury can we note it as covid so we know who our enemy is its a common enemy. Were raising over 2 trillion, as you know, for our covid relief were raising it all across the curve. And we have tremendous demand for u. S. Treasuries. Everybody wants to buy u. S. Treasuries its the safe haven. So its being very well received and i just want to comment, the sba event we had yesterday with the president at the white house yesterday was a great success. He got to speak to both Community Bankers as well as the large bankers. We have 3,500 lenders up on the system with many more getting signed up every day. And i want to assure all Small Businesses out there that we will not run out of money. The president has asked us to go back to congress we hope they pass this tomorrow and friday we want to assure everybody, if you dont get a loan this week, youll get a loan next week or the following week the money will be there. You know i support this program with everything i have i think its fantastic the Community Bankers stepped up in a way i cannot believe. The small and mediumsized will be saved by that how about the large guys i go to citis site today, citi is working with the sba to provide relief to Small Business owners while were working as quickly as we can, we are not able to yet accept applications for the paycheck protection program. Charlie scharf is constrained by something that janet yellen did during the friday before the super bowl two years ago lets change that. They should be able to give all the loans they want. We need wells and citi involved in this if this is going to be a success, mr. Secretary let me just comment i think overall the banks have done a phenomenal job, as you said some of them are further ahead this was Just Launched last friday were literally three days into this i can tell you the fed put out a notice that theyre going to be doing a program, a 133 program, so that they can buy these loans. That will provide in excess of 350 billion of liquidity i know the fed is speaking to all the banks. We want to make sure the sba, the fed treasury, everybody is working with all the banks let me just comment, you know, there were a lot of banks signed up that had not used this system in a long time the sba has signed up over 30,000 individual people to be entitled on the system, and every day they sign up thousands more because at every single bank you have lots of people that need to be entitled to approve these loans. Okay. I think that look, i think the system is great. I know when i pick up the times today, Small Business borrowers frustrated by long delays. I know you worked all weekend, everyone is working all weekend, its not for lack of work. No one thought this would happen it does lead me to think why dont we do something in the interim for everybody who is in a jam mortgagewise and rent wise instead of just canceling mortgages, we just tack on 30 days to the end of a mortgage, 30 days to the end of a lease and we pay people to stay at home so we can beat this thing, get the testing we need and open up america at the time when lets just shoot for something, how about the allstar game . Something that is all american we have to shoot for a date, mr. Secretary. It cant be wild high. Well, i know the president is working on a date. I know he wants to reopen the economy as soon as we get the appropriate all clear and things are looking good i know he wants to do that soon. As it relates to mortgages, mos of the mortgage is freddie may, fha, va, we have already put out guidance that borrowers that have issues can call up. As you said, their payments will be tacked up on the end. My understanding is that the banks for their own portfolio have already instituted a similar issue. So where we could mandate people on government related loans, we did. And weve encouraged the banks to work on the private loans i know thats added much needed relief to borrowers who are having issues in these difficult times. Mr. Secretary, its david faber. Speaking of relief, ive noted this in the past, i know youre aware oftchit companies more than 500 employees who are not Investment Grade who are conceivably in need of capital right now. Is treasury thinking about a new plan to try to address that group . Ive heard theres at least the idea that a lot of large investors might be putting money in towards a fund that could be levered by treasury to Access Capital for these businesses at some appropriate Interest Rate is that a real effort undergone, being looked at by treasury right now . Its a very real effort. Its not something were just thinking about its something weve been actively working on. For the last week weve had daily calls with the fed this would be a 133 facility that we call the main Street Lending facility for companies that are, as you said, over the 500 persons and below the corporate facilities that weve announced. And we hope to have an announcement this week with the details on that and get it up and running as soon as we can. Mr. Secretary, on monday the president removed the chairman of the federal panel or that was overseeing the c. A. R. E. S. Act. Glenn fein, he was going to be the Inspector General for the c. A. R. E. S. Program hes been replaced by another gentleman with that job previously at the epa. Can you tell us why the president did that, if you know why . And whether or not thats going to create any tension with congress when you do go back for more money, because we have gotten statements from the likes of nancy pelosi indicating they were unhappy with that move by the president. I think the president thought that the appropriate oversight was very important, thats why he wanted to move forward quickly, and nominate someone for this position. I think you know this is a new Inspector General that was set up under the c. A. R. E. S. Act. Its someone who has a lot of experience and i look forward to working with him i think, as you know, with he very much support proper oversight. Theres going to be a congressional oversight committee. We have enhanced disclosure. So i think that the American Public deserves to know whats going on given the amount of money that well be putting out. Mr. Secretary, you say the president wants to reopen the economy soon, and kudlow yesterday did say that he would await the green light from Health Officials once that process begins, are you going to prioritize states that say contribute to gdp are you going to prioritize states that were either most or least effected by the crisis in the first place . My expectation that well be opening it up based upon medical conditions so wed like to open up as muc gdp as we can, my expectations are that places like new york will take longer some areas of the country that have very little disease and are effective at combating this, so i think well look at it on a medical basis. Mr. Secretary, i like many people in this country are sick of the blame game. Who did this wrong, who did that wrong. Enough already lets think positive and going forward. I say we have to keep the pressure on, not the media, not the senate, not the congress, not the president. Keep the pressure on covid covid is the enemy so why dont we offer a big prize to anybody who tries to who gets this thing dead lets offer a march of dimes prize where we found out dr. Salk, university of pittsburgh killed the thing nobody thought he could do it. Offer a plan people offer a plan to get the economy restarted and we give them a prize . We give a Biotech Company a prize. We have to change the spirit here, mr. Secretary. Theres way too much complaining and not enough about how do we kill this thing called covid, which is who unites us jim, i agree with you the best way to open up the economy and kill this is for medical breakthroughs. Let me say, we have the most advanced medicine in the world we already have all the medical professionals working together i dont think they need a big prize. I think they all understand there is a big prize, which is killing this virus this is a giant project. I think we have the best minds working on this. I look forward to great advances i know the president has already approved many drugs for compassionate use. I think theres more drugs that hes going to be approving i know we have now Corporate America working together to basically kill this virus and provide the needed relief of various different medical tools. Theres no doubt about it Corporate America wants to do more but is looking for guidance and guidance from you, sir youre a business person let me give you some things i hear retail is basically closed in the country except costco, walmart, target and amazon but theres a lot of space and factory space to be able to build instead of shirts, instead of clothes, instead of dresses, we can build gowns but someone has to say to these companies, this is wartime you have all those factories overseas in thailand, vietnam. We want to see gowns we want to see them now not just planes from damn china. Why cant we have these retailers do what we need, make masks, make gowns. Theres a thing called the defense production act, we told gm they have to make planes. Why cant we tell the retailers you have to make gowns a lot of them are making gowns. A lot of them are now making masks. These things take time to ramp up in the interim were buying everything we can. Every day i get suggestions from people that i forward on to the appropriate people in the white house. So i know theres a whole team in the white house working on these supplies to make sure we get these supplies and we get, as you said, u. S. Manufacturing. I know the president is very focused on the pharmaceutical issue. Hes been working with companies there. I can assure you, theres a lot of people working on this. We agree with you. Mr. Secretary, heres radical action i will congratulate you on a program thats amazing, unprecedented and has helped Community Banks. Its outwardly positive but the hell with it good job, mr. Secretary. Thanks for calling in. Thanks, jim great to be with all of you. Thank you so, jim, reflections on that, whether its the plan to reopen the economy, extra long bonds . What do you think . Im curious, you talk about not playing the blame game, im curious as to why youre not more frustrated at the delay we put into plans to test at scale. Cowen has a chart out today of countries of 5 million or more around the world testing as a percentage of the population, the u. S. Is last i know, because then the president will immediately say were first. I think theres a lot of problems with testing. I dont want go into the w. H. O. , abbott has a great testing program. Theyre trading to roll trying roll it out. I think you need to shut down the economy for 30 days, pay people to stay at home and test, test, test weve been slow to test. Why . I think were a federal system thats being devolving into a state system the states are waiting for federal leadership and the federals are saying, listen, the states want to take leadership so nobody is taking leadership i think the army should take leadership at least thats an organization we all revere in the country they can do it they can set up hospitals, theyre good at setting up hospitals. They can do the testing. Theyre trusted and loved. Why theyre not being used, including 125,000 medical professionals in the armed forces is beyond me. The defense production act and the 125,000 medical professionals are the people i would look to, but you have to call them out. We live in a society not run by the military, unlike the prc you have to take some radical federal action im trying to be positive. I thought the program is good. Im frustrated because this damn covid this darn covid is much more intractable than we think it drives me crazy that wuhan is open what they had to do to get wuhan open was to suppress the amount of Civil Liberties that would be unconscionable in our society. It worked for them its frustrating to see a military communist totali itotan community win. Journal piece today about the reopening of wuhan, a rise in new asymptomatic cases that was deleted online as eunice yoon pointed out on twitter. Thats why a lot of charts are x china. We cant trust what theyre saying you cant trust them one bit. I think other countries there are to look to south korea. Taiwan was ready taiwan was ready for sars, whatever our market is ready for good news im always surprised at how resilient it is, given the fact that unemployment is rising, mortgage numbers were bad. But the credit markets are wide open i cant believe who is getting credit its incredible. Its loose fed is doing their job we need a general marshal. The only thing were talking about with the military is a guy who went over the loud speaker who trashed the captain, they both served well it was like the mutiny over there. Everything is a novel. Terry gross is interviewing stephen king ill tune in today to find out what happens it is important to be a little united im trying to come up with organizations like when general marshall told fdr, when he called him george, he said its general marshall i would love for someone to say im general marshall this is what we need to do shut down the economy, everyone test and wear masks, then give a prize. I disagree with the secretary entirely on giving a prize we need people who are outside the box thinking right now we dont have it right now were just every day we come in, maybe theres a test, maybe theyre wearing a mask, maybe theyre not. Im im not afraid. Im willing to go out wherever i have to. Im not im more cowardly than my father was in world war ii, but im willing to go to the store. I wish that everybody wore a mask so i cant get you sick, you cant get me sick. We wear gloves i wish there was ppe for everybody. There obviously isnt. The fact there isnt ppe for everybody is a national scandal. We all know that there was one other thing that mnuchin said that was interesting. I asked this question of kudlow the other day as well. Mnuchin answered it much more specifically trying to figure out a way to get capital at a reasonable rate for those businesses that have more than 500 employees but are not Investment Grade he seemed to indicate that treasury i think he said were working on it, were getting close to something, using the feds main Street Lending facility as a way to get that money into those hands at some sort of Interest Rate it will be interesting to see what they come up with there that sort of is seen as a gap in what was done with the c. A. R. E. S. Act in terms of getting to those companies and mnuchin certainly addressing it square on. Jim, when you raise china, i keep coming back to it as well and wondering as we move along here through dealing with this virus, where were going to be with china we spent the last couple of years talking about a relationship with that country in respect to the trade dispute between our two countries. Now we have a virus that originated in wuhan. By the way, huawei, not able to get those chips conceivably, thats what were hearing in terms of the u. S. Saying no to huaweis ability to actually get important chip sets. Continued increased hostility between the two countries would seem to be more the rule than the exception. I think thats an important relationship to keep an eye on as we wonder and talk about life after the virus. Are you ever right. At one point i was thinking when you go back and reread history during the new deal, things got restarted, 37 the fed jacked up rates, things went right back. But the actual recovery that happened was only because of world war ii and the incredible building that we had to do i keep thinking about the book ghost fleet which is when the chinese figured out how to jam our navy that was a novel but i do think that it wouldnt be wrong to be thinking about what the Defense Department is doing here whats going on in terms of the fact that are we going to be a secondrate nation versus the chinese . Is anyone willing to talk about that is that too dangerous . I think if theyre back 100 , and were not, then, you know, i think its remember the belt and Road Initiative . Theyll be back, funding all the countries that were thought of as our allies. Im concerned this is the chinese power play i know the guy in the administration, peter navarro, is the guy most concerned about that he is caught up in a memo that he did or didnt send. I dont know carl, im looking at it thinking about the chinese did the chinese in three months become the number one power in the world . After a month in which they finally signed a trade deal that they dragged their heels on for a year these are questions that are impossible to answer speaking of power plays, i know you were talking oil with joe prior to the show this morning theres another discussion about who wins there did the saudis win what do therussians want what will happen tomorrow . Theres the canadians getting 5 per barrel for western crude. 5 that would mean that ultimately maybe we will get zero dollars yet the Oil Companies are trading up the market is so funny the market acts its up 20 from the bottom. The market acts as were about to have opening day. Theyre thinking about having opening day according to espn in phoenix, and all games played in phoenix. Terrific idea if you live in phoenix. But were sitting here watching Interest Rates go higher, stocks going up again i dont know, theres a serious disconnect when you speak to the countries, most of which are closed and whats going on in the market today i find it i keep thinking maybe the market knows something we dont maybe be they know of an antiviral . David, you have to admit, you do have to think that the market knows something that we dont know the collective wisdom i spoke to dave tepper yesterday we were both marveling, geez, its been bullish. Why . Listen, i have those same conversations during the course of the day as well to your point, the collective wisdom of the market seeing something that is a positive maybe it is the rate of infection or hospitalizations in new york slowing you know, the idea that we are going to reopen at some point. But most of the conversations i have end up with somebody saying no one knows what it looks like when we come out of this right no one knows something. It sort of ends up there regardless of your expertise or how detailed you are and rigorous you are in terms of all aspects of the economy, nobody seems to know much of anything in terms of whats really coming i guess thats a difficult thing to say but the market seems to say its not going to be perhaps as bad as feared a couple weeks ago. If you go back to 2008 2009, even 2007, nobody could get credit i remember thinking look at that caterpillar credit line, will that be in trouble now its like you want some credit you want money when carnival use raised all that money while theres a criminal investigation about a cruise ship, 600 people are sick, 11 died, doesnt that pretty much say anybody can get money . Isnt that the worlds worst borrower the saudis took 8 , and cruise liners use a lot of oil and they made a killing oh they did well. They did well. Boy. The david,ifd humor does not fl. David, ill hand it off to you i want to talk Capital Markets and about the high yield market because we are going to see it open up this morning or today, later today when the first deal of size is priced. Jeffries here working on this for landrys they furloughed 40,000 employees very early on in this crisis 600 restaurants, five casinos, numerous hotels. Thats landrys, he owns the Houston Rockets separately talking about a company that had as much as 7 700 million in cash flow going to zero in the space of a couple weeks. Thats sort of where landrys found itself today i can tell you theyre going to close on either 250 or perhaps as much as 3 300 million in highyield debt that they will be raising. The pricing is i credibkre incr, because this is a company that only a month ago or so was borrowing at 4. 5 . It will be libor plus 12 or 12. 5 . The bonds will be sold at a discount the overall rate of return or the Interest Rate will be roughly between 13 and 14 , again for a Company Borrowing at 4. 5 five or six weeks ago before things got closed down in the u. S. Economy that said, this is considered a good operator. Theres a great deal of demand for the offering im told, perhaps a billion for what will be 250 million or 300 million in paper. Its cullible after two years. One would expect at 107 one would expect that it will be culled right away if this company is in any sort of shape to do that this will take them through the end of this year if they have to get there, guys, without having any revenue really coming into the company. This would allow them to continue to pay rents, allow them to continue to pay for maintenance on all of their properties they wont be able to hire people back at this point, that will depend on the reopening of the economy, so many things we talked about earlier in the show and how you go about doing that. It does take the company to the end of the year without conceivably any money coming in. It may be the offering that opens up the high yield market to other companies that are in a similar situation. No fault of their own. Good operators, watching their business just go away as a result of the economic shutdown. Some say fertitta, were not sure where all his money comes from, will he reequityize next year that is unclear. But they will be able to take in that money at a huge Interest Rate that will tide them over towards the end of the year. Its an important offering because its the first of significance in the highyield market since the crisis began. Incredible. Boy, they are not even open. Thats what i mean theres money for people not working. Theres money for people whose businesses are closed. Extraordinary. Theres money for everybody. There may be. Theyre in the same range, guys that that mnuchin was talking about when i asked him about that program, he said its a real effort, not something were just thinking about were having daily calls with the fed for a 133 facility, main Street Lending for companies over 500 people he said they ophope to have an announcement this week in this case, Tilman Fertitta making the decision i want to get the money right away im not waiting for the government theyre saying well take it and we expect that deal, by the way, based on the conversations i had to close later today david, thanks for that. Well watch it lets get to bob pisani this morning. Its a good start, but it was a very good start yesterday. This is another gap up that weve seen here, three days in a row weve gapped up nicely again, good start yesterday and actually the same Leadership Group today started out as the Leadership Group yesterday those are the sectors that are most beaten up we see energy up banks up retail this look familiar interestingly reit s are laggin a bit. Consumer staples were lagging yesterday. This has a similar pattern we had a 90point gain in the s p 500 that evaporated. People are trying to figure out where are we are we in a bull market or a bear market . Im calling it the markets in the middle you can argue both ways here the people screaming the market was the buy of a lifetime two weeks ago, they dont have as much of an argument now with the markets 22 off of the bottom that weve seen in the last week or so. And we are, by the way, 21 off the 52week highs, historic highs on february 19th at the lows we were 35 off. Is this a bull market or a bear market you tell me. I say market in the middle what it means is weve regained 45 of our losses maybe that weve had. Thats a significant rally everybody who say its the buy of a lifetime, maybe its harder to argue now considering what a long slog we had. The risk reward ratio has changed dramatically because of the size of the moves. If you look at some names out there in the dow stocks, since the february 21 close. February 21st that weekend when things started to fall apart, the coronavirus headlines started getting serious. Walmart is up since then verizon is down 2 merck is down 5 3m down 8 microsoft down 9 . These are not trivial declines but compared to a couple weeks ago, this is well, well off of the lows for a lot of the big names here the good news, i think, is that the strategists, the topdown guys are starting to coalesce on their opinions on 2020 earnings. Theyre still clueless, but theyve gone from utterly clue less to figuring out where some numbers are. Obviously this can change, but im heartened by the 10point swing here, rbc is the most optimistic, goldmans is more pessimistic. Lets use down 20 even assuming a 20 decline in earnings, the market is still pretty expensive now the that would be 20 times forward earnings its tough remember, we have a long slog. Every day the thing i look at, withdrawing guidance and furloughs. Its a good reminder of what is going on here. Today we had several again so mcdonalds came out, withdrew guidance pinterest came out, withdrew guidance levis last night came out and withdrew guidance. Tesla is furloughing people left and right. Dicks sporting goods, this is a refreshing way to get up every morning and remind yourself, okay, the fed may have the ultimate bazooka as larry kudlow said yesterday, that was passed around, maybe mr. Kudlow is right, dont fight the fed, but its a long slog looking at the withdraw in guidance and the furloughing every day in my opinion is a very refreshing way to remind yourself that this is still a very, very long slog, and maybe thats why we get those failed rallies late in the day like the ones we had yesterday. Guys, back to you. Bob, thanks for that. We will get fed minutes at 2 00. Thats going to reflect a frenzied response back in march. Lets get to Rick Santelli good morning, rick yes, frenzied response is a good way to put it we are now in a range of 0 to 25 on the fed funds range thats going to be important here all the charts im using are basically twoweek charts. It gives us an interesting perspective. If you look at a twoyear note over the last two weeks, remember i said 0 to 25 is the range. What this chart tells me is it will be difficult to do a sustained trade over 30 basis points which makes sense when you think about the range and proximity twoyear note to the short end that is under the thumb of the federal reserve, though pretty much the entire yield curve during this point of time can be viewed as under the thumb of the central bank. Maybe not in a bay wd way becau of the unfortunate circumstances of coronavirus the tenyear, 75 basis points. Three quarters of 1 , a difficult area to do sustained trading above. We have had times, it was about two weeks ago we shot up to the 120s didnt last long made everyone nervous. It was considered a warning sign on the gears starting to grind theres so much liquidity out there we should look at a slightly higher increase over three quarters of 1 as a good thing. Look at bunds. What jumps out to you as it keeps firming up unlike the u. S. , the European Central bank has a bunch of different issues to contend with without a federal charter constitution for all the countries, a central bank taking issue with all the countries so it will be much more difficult thats reflected in this rising rate the dollar index, strength all you see is strength. That strength is defined by an area of 101. We toss around so many things right now, recession is the big thing being tossed around. When i look at whats going on in germany and france, the news of the day, i get it, they were on the verge of a real recession. Whats going on in the world shouldnt be really viewed in my opinion as a recession the word has negative connotations if it was up to me we would be calling it the great cessation, thats what it is. A cessation of activities. Theres a huge difference. I think that this type of branding will go a long way in putting in focus the fact that it is not a negative when businesses are not showing gdp or were not bringing in volume or were not showing any type of sales. Because its a cessation i think that we need to make sure we focus on the fact that we can be as negative as we want i look out the window in chicago and people are doing all the right things but over time something has to change we all know that, we can feel it im not sure what it is. I think a good way to start is to call it what it is. David, back to ou. Okay, rick. Thank you. Dont miss michael dell, a quest on squawk alley this morning. We have more squawk on the street coming for you right after this heres the thing about managing multiple clouds for your business. When youve got public clouds, and private clouds, and hybrid clouds things can get a bit cloudy for you. But now, theres the Dell Technologies cloud, powered by vmware. A single hub for a consistent operating experience across all your clouds. That should clear things up. Breaking news this morning dupont in collaboration with fedex and the department of health and Human Services is air lifting 420,000 protective garments from the manufacturing facility in vietnam to the u. S that shipment, im being told arrives today to fema where it will be distributed to u. S. Hospitals and Testing Centers across the nation. The head of dupont saying theyre using this expedite the shipments and theyll continue to do so to deliver thousands of garments every week until the u. S. Government tells them to stop in response to the coronavirus crisis, dupont has delivered more than 9 million garments a month. So far, they continue to ramp up production of not just the suits that youll see many med sical professionals wearing but also the fabric the fabric used to manufacture these garments well see if its enough its a move that dupont is taking as they watch other companies that specialize in protective gear face a lot of criticism including 3m and General Motors two of the other big names in the supply chain debate this week thank you. Well take one more quick break and start again at the top of the hour squawk in the street is back in just a moment. Ever since weve gone mobile on the now platform, somethings gotten into the office. I hear you. Feels like theres no barriers between departments now. Do you think everyone appreciates it . I do. Huh. Forgot my glasses. Serivcenow. The smarter way to workflow. Lets get to jim and stop trading. A note stay says darden is the stock to buy they went from hold to buy the reason its important the Community Banks give the money is because we dont want a situation where we dont have olive garden a lot of the restaurants have gone out of business they shut up we recognize the webless piece says who has the Balance Sheet who doesnt . Theyre trying to get the Business Loans come on, let wells fargo lend or were all going to be eating at olive garden which has an unlimited salad bowl to die for. And great rolls, too. Jim, you mention web bush shutting darden. You had piper take apple back to 300. Theres bullish calls today. Does that run afoul of your general view i dropped my apple watch. I have to wear this stupid breitling. My dad loved it. We need to have he had an apple watch that can tell your temperature. Go like this, scan and get in the score. David doesnt like that, but i love it. David doesnt wear a watch i think the apple stuff is positive it says there is light at the end of the tunnel. China is big for apple we there are some good calls. I cant fit the issue is over and over again when do we open thats why i was so excited that there could be an opening day not excited that all baseball will be played in the phoenix area still trying to get my arms around that. Can you imagine . Yeah. Youre referencing this espn report that mlb and the Players Union are working on Something Like Training Camp in may. Yeah. Why phoenix . I hope they dont play the world series in pandemic island. I googled it i got more on this. All the hedge fund places have places there. When david, had references. Its a joke. Remember yeah. Remember one of those Sports Illustrated from my youth, i think, Christy Brinkley when they did it in the islands pandemic islands . 78 those were good times. That swim suit issue. I dont know i dont know this is our window where we make fun of rich hedge funds that come on and cry and have fallout shelters where they dont have chef boy rd. No. And they dont drink tang my parents always told me that meant we were not doing badly. We have to reset it generally means we say to our viewers good wednesday morning, welcome to squawk on the street. Im Carl Quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber and sara eisen. A bit of a fade after the initial open art carbon, its nice to have his commentary back. Watch 2625 this morning. His broader point was despite the intraday selloff yesterday, the overall breadth makes him think maybe the bulls have the initiative for now yeah. Although yesterday was brutal. If you were bullish and you were hoping for some constructive action, that we really had reached a bottom we wiped out more than 90 0 points in the dow. The close was all over the place. It was a nail biter as said on twitter. And today were seeing signs of a rebound. Its interesting that energy is one of the best performing groups today oil is bouncing. Even yesterday, off of that 8 decline in crude, Energy Stocks held up. I wonder bargen hunting, if that tells us anything about how tethered stocks are to the price of oil obviously with it not being the Biggest Issue because of the Health Crisis and what it means people are dipping back to the Energy Stocks. It reminds me of the retailers like kohls got to 10. I think people think it was wrong to think the all the Energy Companies could go under. I dont like Energy Stocks its diamondbacks, faang, the wrong faang, diamondback, eog, pioneer, and parsley those are the ones that rbn has said, and thats my they can do well here if you want to own an oil company, own those and chevron, the dividend is safe i dont think you say that on air unless you really mean it because you have all hell to pay if its not. Theres five and dont fool around. And dont dip down a lot of notes say its time to buy apache no own the ones that can make money. They are selling safety today prettihearty hard and its incredible to see safety get crushed and risk beloved. I think thats a mistake i think safety is what you need going into recession health care at the bottom of the pack i guess those are the safety plays. Jim, the market is focussed on the infection curve right now. And the seemingly good news that were starting to get out of places like new york and other places that the social distancing is worsening. I wonder if theres a turning point where once we can get that flattening of the curve as were seeing, the focus shifts to the economy. It really has been focussed on the health side of things. And you and i talk about antivirals and vaccines and antibody tests theres so much work being done on that. We have to look at earnings and the economy. Im curious to see what the fed minutes look like. Its the notes from the last emergency meeting in march to see what the fed officials are talking about. How deep this recession is going to be and how long its going to last the white house and states are talking about opening day as you mentioned. But its very hard to see what that actually looks like i know. For companies and consumers i know you have to do it. They get it in 1942 when the allies knew they were going to beat the germans even though they didnt really know but the russians had a handle on it. We all want to have a plan for when its over the doctors say plateau . Thats not good. You need to go down. And i just dont get any solace whatsoever i get solace if i know the person next to me or i and i dont have a temperature plateau, no. De blasio is on the tape says we can get through the week with the ventilators we have. That echoes what cuomo said yesterday. Dont you think the march lows were trying to discount the recession and Public Health chaos. Is there something wrong with that view . No. I feel like theres a lot of companies i keep thinking and im if de blasio is on the ventilator situation, thats great. That happened in the state of washington but to go from we dont need more ventilators to i am ready to go for a beer is just quantum. I think we have to accept society has to change. Were going to have to be separate and know everybodys temperature and wear masks when i hear that ppe for everybody and testing for everybody, i am going to go out. But until then, i like everybody else i know am scared to death, with good reason have you seen what ohio is doing . Ohio has been so out front on all of this. They locked down before new york locked down before they had serious cases and the latest from the governor is they want to just Start Testing random samples of people. With symptoms or not to try to get data and information thats the kind of forward thinking that i think we need. Ohio i want people to fear they wouldnt like that i could theyd love it. Are you kidding . Well, thats nice i feel like thats what i need to hear. I need to hear something that says were far enough along that you can go out, but were going to randomly check you. If you go out in madrid or paris, they arrest you thats not in new york, you see people on the subway theyre still not wearing masks. And it hasnt peaked in madrid they thought it plateaued last weekend. No plateau i like what youre saying about ohio theyre ahead of the curve maybe we do this, sara maybe we open the areas ahead of the curve and keep the other areas closed that is one way as difficult as that may be and how you restrict travel becomes the key question there as well from one area or to another. And obviously, the asymptomatic nature of some people and their ability to transmit the disease is around issue. I want to come back to secretary mnuchin as has been the case for a number of weeks jim has brought him to us for an interview each of these weeks. I wanted to focus on one thing i thought was newsworthy based on my knowledge of it and others who ive been hearing from which is how are you going to address the businesses that are out there that have more than 500 employees that are not Investment Grade, and that are obviously not the small guys either who are being aided through the payroll Protection Plan which weve been talking so much about when i asked the treasury secretary about whether there is something underway at treasury to help that group of businesses, heres what he had to say its a very real effort. Its having weve been having daily calls with the fed this would be a 13 3 facility that we call the main Street Lending facility for companies that are as you said, over the 500 persons and below the corporate facilities that weve announced. And we hope to have an announcement this week with the details on that and get it up and running as soon as we can. Let me put this in some perspective. I got an email from matthew shea, the president and ceo of the National Retail federation weve had him as a frequent guest on air he said theres no market for the existing main street facility that the fed had. Remember, for companies in the 500 to 10,000 employee range he says because of the political Strings Attached to that facility but secretary mnuchin has authority under 13 3 to create a similar facility without those strings, and he says theyve been working very hard to encourage creation of that facility and is glad to hear him make that commitment that from matthew shea, hoping it was on the record he sent that in an email the idea is that you would let also potentially managers of institutional money put up money as well. It could be levered by the treasury and then take the form of high yield bonds or levered loans to those companies in need. I think that was an important statement from the treasury secretary this morning and certainly wanted to note it as such david, why couldnt a private equity firm say were going to do that . I think that the larger banks are kind of overwhelmed. We didnt hear from the treasury secretary that hes going to pressure the fed to be opened up wells fargo, thats a mistake. Citi is trying to get it together but wouldnt you want if you were in private equity, wouldnt you say this is my opportunity, the big banks are overwhelmed. I can get backstopped by the fed. I want to make those loans or are those loans too risky no. Listen, private equity is looking at the possibility of returns that would be commensurate with what they get for putting up huge amounts of money to do a large leverage buyout yeah. Just simply given what the numbers are and the high yield market in terms of the coupon or Interest Rates available or even in programs the likes of what were talking about here dont know if theyd move to what youre describing but there was a lot of money out there not devoted to buying companies that would be happy to get the kinds of returns that are potentially available from this pool of companies that dont have access to capital that need it that got hit very hard by something that was beyond their control but david, i always find that the administration seems to be constrained by current thinking. I mean, is this where you go to a facebook or an alphabet . Is this where you go to one of these, to square, i dont know to mastercard or papal and say we need your help. We need your help. You know all these Small Businesses and do a lot of work for the 50 to 500. Automatic data, can you help us . Right now the system is overwhelm bud theyre constra constrained. They are so in the box i mean, what a great call you make to automatic data right now and say guys, we want to advance the companies you know and youve got the payroll you know how theyre doing square knows how companies are doing. Its a failure of imagination. Theyre old. The people are old and they dont know the companies, and they always talk about the banks but they dont understand about the new Banking System thats happened and how a Small Business or medium size business works its through automatic data. You never hear them think. Lets think about how to get alphabet involved. Im shocked theyre so thinking about the current day of 2009 and not the real day of 2020 well, yeah. I mean, politico does have a piece up on Jared Kushner asking a health tech to create a Surveillance System from a Public Health standpoint, but your point about payroll is well taken. They know its a resource were not utilizing. Automatic data knows so much about what goes on square knows what goes on. If i were down there sometimes i want to be down there saying guys, let me tell you about this new economy and its the economy thats a quick book economy and you keep thinking its a citi Group Economy and wells has been shut down by the fed. You got to think about it. Go open a Small Business like senator mcgovern theyre so removed the president , they only think about the big banks. They dont understand about the new if i kmi that economists we have them all tv all the time we didnt mention this morning, jim, jack dorsey moving a billion of his square equity into covid19 relief and thats a big player in the exact kind of thing youre talking about. When you use square, i dont at my restaurants because im blessed that i have the cash flow, but square will give you an advance against your receipts thats a creative outfit i would bring square in bring intuit in. They know more than people realize. I dont think i think that to be hang strung mentally and thinking jpmorgan and citi, its bank of america, no. Thats the old days. Thats the old days. Theres this whole new system of how business works and those companies dont know nearly as much as you think. But they keep going back to them the Community Banks, i like the fact they go back to them too, but payroll processors know more than the companies i would have done this new paychecks and automatic data they should have used them but they had a failure of imagination. By the way, speaking of job losses, have you been keeping track of retail. Tj max and marshals. They employ 286,000 people these companies, tjx, kohls, gap, theyve announced furloughs. I wonder david referenced the nrf. Whats ahead for this industry and those jobs do they come back . I think tjx comes back hard they have a good balance what will happen is theyll be able to buy all the inventory from all the companies that you hear bad things about and theyre a smart company. They dont have an ecommerce which i always thought hurt them, but the fact is theyre doing very well. The biggest problem tjx has offline, is the lines. I mean, the lines are a problem. Like, the like at my tjx if youre six feet, you snake back to the gym sock area. I feel theyre in good shape, because the Balance Sheet. And they dont have the debt covenants of so many others. I think and david teaches this and its over and over again. You look at the equity and think everything is good and then you look at the Balance Sheet and say what are those people in stocks thinking . How stupid can they be yeah. And thats the reckoning a lot of companies are having right now. Lets it was great to see because if they get a w bad, if we get a u, okay a v, unbelievable. If we head a l, thats hedge fund negativity. Thats back to pandemic islands. Its unclear right now where were head the on the economic recovery we have to look to the Health Crisis lets focus in on how the hospitals are doing with this. Theyre obviously facing a dangerous shortage of ventilators and now medications needed to keep patients on those ventilators. Lets bring in brian, the Atlanta Health system ceo. Former chairman of the American Hospital association brian, nice to see you again you run a huge Hospital System across new jersey which is now the second worst hardest hit state outside of new york in this country tell us about these shortages youre facing when it comes to medication sure. Thank you, sara. And thanks for having me back. You know, the drugs that were talking about are drugs that are used in ventilator care. Theyre drugs that help people be sedated theyre paralytics and keep airways open and manage blood pressures. Those are absolutely critical in this equation. And yesterday we got some really great news so we rang the bell on this over the last week. Part was media and we also had a direct letter to the dea from the American Hospital association and the American Medical Association and a group of anesthesiologists and a couple other social works. I really saw government work quickly then because yesterday they came out with a ruling that they were going to increase production limits they were going to allow that to occur because that is regulated and they were going to allow imports to occur so were thrilled that the government took that kind of action and now what remains to be seen is how quickly the Drug Companies are going to mobilize and begin manufacturing these drugs, these essential drugs, and how they are going to get those to the areas that are most in need right now because as you have referenced in some of the conversations that youve been having this morning, that the uptake of this virus is uneven throughout the country right now as it migrates and we are absolutely in the hot bed here in the Greater New York metro area my hospitals and doctors offices start one stop off the train line out of the city to new jersey so what do you need right now . Do you have the ventilators . It sounds like youre going to get access to the medication or at least this development will help on that front ppe. Tell us what the needs are at this point yeah. Let me tell you how this chain works. And when any link in the chain is broken, it hurts the entire Health Care System it all starts with testing and weve talked about that a number of times. That has gotten better but it is not where it needs to be yet we need to have that testing at point of care. Theres been a lot of discussions about that but we still havent seen that in the field particularly in these high areas of high need. The second is protective equipment. Thats connected to the testing. Because if we dont know which patients are absolutely positive, that means that we have to protect our care givers from all patients that have any of these symptoms. And in general, about half of the people we test end up not having the virus therefore, we burned through half of the protective equipment which is of low supply and continues to be. For example, each patient requires about 20 sets of protective equipment for our team members per day its a big number. Third is making sure we have the physical capacity. We have decanted our hospitals from anything elective or nonurgent. We have in essence converted our hospitals to primarily covid areas, although about 25 of our activities still sees other types of patients because illness goes on. And weve also increased our icu capacity in some of our hospitals times three. Using areas that are like post anesthesia care areas or or. R. S the key thing the ventilators are coming to us through a couple of different sources. One is through the federal stockpile and governor murphy has been working that so hard for us and hes doing a great job. Weve received a lot of those ventilators. The other is by redistributing the ventilators from other parts of the state and we have great cooperative work going on between our Health Systems but the third is please to family and friends in the Health Care Field and i got to tell you, im thrilled that our friends at Johns Hopkins or chop and well span health all helped us out in a time of crisis so were tweaking by as it relates to vents but this piece of medications is so important, because imagine having to have surgery without an anesthetic. Thats what it would be like being on a ventilator without these coronimportant drugs. Thank you for coming on and thank you for overlook, a hospital about a mile from me that we support. I support them for what they do. Its a great hospital. Thank you when we talk about ventilators, we hear mixed things i thought a ventilator gives a person a fighting chance but then the governor said that only about 20 of the people on ventilators live now, look, we want everyone to live maybe thats a good ratio and i dont know but is there any hope that if you had everything right that it could possibly be more people survive . You know, clearly making sure that we have access to ventilators and the right medications are an important part your observation with patient care is interesting. We are seeing on average lengths of stay 12 to 18 days. And over this past week, saturday night, for example, i got an email at about 11 00 at night from one of our hospital president s they had their first extu bags, meaning the patient was taken off the ventilator has successfully breathing on his own. That required a celebration at socially appropriate distance of our team members in order to do that, because its such a rare occurrence now, this past week we have been seeing more successful extubations. At our command center yesterday it was reported we had 12 overnight. Thats a problem as were looking at your data, were seeing troubling things. Not good. Well, also, you have tremendous there are people in our area who respect your enterpri enterprise tremendously, and we know abbott has a test, and its supposed to be a quick test. I hope it catches most if not all. What we wouldnt do if you could set up in front of an empty mall or a strip mall near us. You just set one up and say Atlantic Health system, you can get tested with abbott or a summit high parking lot or any of them in nice areas. We love atlantic and we would love to get tested by you, and we would pay whatever our Insurance Company will pay can we do that can you open up ten places in ten weeks in our areas so we can go and feel better i would open up ten places in the next ten hours if i could. Theres a difference right now in this country between what we say we can do and what we can actually do. Our lab testing system right now still needs a lot of work. Weve had Companies Like bio reference, a new jerseybased company, i spoke with who runs it the other day he has been a savior for us in atlantic hes been able to prioritize the testing they can do and turn it around so were seeing results in 24 hours. Before that, it was four to five days and thats a problem this abbott system has a lot of promise as do many of these point of care systems. And what we need to do is to get those in production. We need to get the right supplies around them, and we need to get them into the field, because we are ready, willing, and able to do this. We just need access to those and it needs to be prioritized to these hot spot areas sir, an answer to jims question, you said youre seeing troubling things in the data have you already shared that in the interview, but if not, what are the troubling things i think these patients end up intubated for a very long time that in and of itself is different than what we normally see. Normally in an acute care facility like we have, you see patients intubated for healing of certain courses of disease. You know i look at cardiac surgery as an example of that. These patients are just on these vents for a very long time and the longer youre on them, the greater the probability is that youre going to get complications from this. And that is, indeed, what were seeing so this notion of how do we find other drugs that will have a positive effect on this is also an important piece because you know, in your earlier segment about restarting the economy and what we need to do with that is going to be predicated on a couple things. One is the mass testing that jim mentioned. That is a critical piece the other is a vaccine which weve heard different estimates about when thats going to occur. The third piece of this are to find treatments that will really work on these patients to keep them from getting so, so sick. You know, 80 of the people that end up with the virus, and weve treated and provided guidance to over 20,000 people in the last month here so 80 of the people who test positive really work through this its not easy, but they work through it. 20 end up in hospitals and its 35 of them that get really, really sick and end up on these vents so weve got to continue the kinds of trials that are going on and were involved in four of five of the trials about medications that have promise including the malaria kinds of medications. But weve got to continue to work on something that reduces the viral load, attacks this virus, and gets these patients off the ventilators more quickly, and we havent seen that yet i was going to ask you, brian, whether you were involved in the Clinical Trials it sounds like you are do you have any indications yet of any of the treatments making a big difference in the outcomes you know, we dont have large enough numbers to reliably say that, but we are seeing in some instances those drugs. And we are in a crisis situation in this country, this pandemic is like nothing i have ever seen and we need to use every tool in the tool kit right now brian, thank you so much for joining us thank you to all your Health Care Workers and if i could say one thing to the American Public, its listen to the social distancing. Thats whats turning this curve, and weve got to keep doing it thank you so much for highlighting this and jim, thank you for your support we appreciate it thank you thanks, brian. Jim, whats on mad tonight . Okay. Who is doing the most to bring in the ppe is it fema, the Defense Department, the treasury no i think its i think its mark benioff he does unbelievable things to help all businesses, not just his own. Were going to talk about that i have a guy who has helped me as the head of the American Migraine foundation. They announced yesterday better numbers. Why . They make a lot of drugs you take over the counter if youre worried about the thing my wife says we talk about too much. But i say what am i supposed to talk about opening day . Theres still hope, jim. What else look, we might get the masters in november. Well find out a lot of this stuff has not been cancelled. Although, they did take the olympic torch off of display okay. Why is this night different from any other night . Thank you. Ua othsqwkn e street is back after a short break shouldnt you pay less when you use less data . Now you can. Because Xfinity Mobile gives you more flexible data. You can choose to share data between lines, mix with unlimited, or switch it up at any time. All on the most reliable wireless network. Which means you can save money without compromising on coverage. Get more flexible data, the most reliable network, and more savings. Plus, get 200 off when you buy an eligible phone. Thats simple, easy, awesome. Go to xfinitymobile. Com today. Welcome back time for our etf spotlight were looking at the spdr. Higher by about 1. 5 Top Five Holdings mcdonalds announcing total comps down 22 in march saying covid19 has significantly disrupted its business mcdonalds is higher by a little bit more than half a percent we have a mini rally on wall street s p up a percent most sectors are higher. Michael dell just a few minutes away in the 11 00 hour stay with us at t has connected us every day for over 100 years. And were here for you especially now, doing Everything Possible to keep you connected. Through the resilience of our network and people. We can keep learning, keep sharing, keep watching, and most of all, keep together. Its the job weve always done. It is the job we will always do. There are times when our need to connect really matters. To keep customers and employees in the know. To keep business moving. Comcast business is prepared for times like these. Powered by the nations largest gigspeed network. To help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. Tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. And a team of experts here for you 24 7. Weve always believed in the power of working together. Thats why, when every connection counts. You can count on us. Lets get an update on all things covid19 related. For that we go to sue herera i have that thanks, david. Good morning, everyone americans are heeding the call to practice social distancing. The cord nay or the for the Coronavirus Task force says its helping to flatten the curve dr. Deborah birx encouraged people to keep it up if people go out and socially interact, we could see a second wave early were really encouraging every american to continue to follow the guidelines for these 30 days in los angeles the mayor is requiring face coverings be worn in essential businesses. The order applies to customers and employees. The new rule goes into effect on friday the head of the World Trade Organization is predicting a, quote, ugly decline in global trade. They estimate goods trades will shrink between 13 and 32 he says a rapid rebound is possible next year if countries Work Together to shape the recovery and you can hear more from wto director general next hour he will be live on squawk alley. And in addition as always, you can get more on our coronavirus coverage at cnbc by going to cnbc. Com carl, back to you. All right sue, yeah. In fact, we look forward to that interview. A quick break here 1 gains across the board. Week to date some remarkable gains for retail including the best weeks ever for both kohls and rdronostm going back to their ipos back in a minute when you look at the Critical Issues facing our world, what do you see . We see a billion more people breathing free. We see access to fresh food being the global norm, not the exception. We see homes staying cooler, without the planet getting warmer. At emerson, when issues become inspiration, focusing core strengths to create a better world isnt just a result, its a responsibility. Emerson. Consider it solved. Results from the all Economic Survey are in Steve Liesman has those for us we have recorded an historic and unprecedented decline in confidence at the same time, weve seen a surge in optimism for the future ill get to that in a second i want to show you the views on the stock market which have declined hard to know if its as much as it should be certainly not as much as the confidence has declined. A percentage of americans saying now is the good time to invest in stocks has fallen those who say its a bad time has risen to 45 from 25 these are big moves. The stock market has fallen a lot. Moving along here, those expect the equities to come back, 47 say they expect their portfolios to increase in the next year thats good except if you take the next two columns over, those saying they expect it to decrease and stay the same, about even between those who say they expect them to increase and those who say it will stay the same or go down further. I think people are less worried about their portfolios than their jobs one in four americans, thats 10 have lost their jobs 16 say theyve seen their salaries cut already because of the coronavirus shutdown and another 9 say they expect that to happen to them so thats a reason why the current outlook for the economy is quite as bad as it is at the same time, interestingly, 51 say they expect the economy will improve take a look at the confidence in crises and the decline weve seen a 25point decline in the percentage of americans saying the economy is excellent or good thats faster and sharper than the 9 11 terrorist attack, and the 2008 financial crisis. 51 say the economy will improve in the next year thats gains among democrats and republicans old and young. Rich and poor across different regions of the country and maybe one reason for that, sara, 57 say that this will be over in the next few months. Back to you. All right steve, thank you Steve Liesman with that. Lets bring in michael sonarfeld, the chairman and founder of tiger 21. Thats a group of an exclusive network of Wealth Creators and preservers a Membership Organization as well membership of which has as much as 72 billion to invest that was as recently as march 1st. Michael, let me start there. What are you seeing from your members who i know are from around the world in terms of their willingness to invest right now. Are they more focussed on trying to preserve capital . Our members are in a kind of wait and see mode. They had been prepared before the down turn with 12 cash so few of them have been forced to liquidate at the bottom, but they dont think the carnage is over theyre not willing to make that prediction like the statistics that were just on. Some people think it will get better the sentiment is this cant come back quickly its going to be a much longer recovery than most people think. Because of how many things have been broken that will need to be fixed going back so the notion of a v or w is something most of our members are not willing to make a bet on right now. Its kind of steady as you go. Keep going through the hurricane, so to speak ive said this a number of times because it comes up often in conversations its difficult to know what the new normal is going to look like what are you hearing from your group in terms of their expectations are things going to go back to the old normal is there an expectation its not going to be quite the same it will never be the same but as has been proven with virtually every downturn since the civil war, things come back, and new things occur, and old things die its the nature of the creativity of the human spirit and we know that more than anybody because were filled with entrepreneurs who have been doing this their whole life. Nobody is ever going to go into a restaurant or get on a plane or go to a sports event without thinking about this for the next few years. Im not saying these industries wont come back. Tech nothing, telelearning is going to be huge working from home for offices. You see soft bank getting in a tussle right now because we works future is less Bright Office space who is going to need it . Theres going to be dramatic changes that are going to create huge winners and losers and people looking for opportunities when things settle down. Theres plenty of time to wait to jump in but theres going to be fundamental transformations that we could have never predicted. Well, we work in an office space where people are close together thats an issue. Im curious about your Home Business you rely on membership fees but events and conferences are an important part of what tiger 21 does you cant do them right now. What are your expectations in terms of whether and when youll be able to do those kinds of things again well, actually, just the opposite the Silver Lining here is we have a team that was able to pivot our entire business to a remote telemodel and all of a sudden groups that were meeting every month in person are now meeting on various types of video conferencing, zoom being our primary one right now. And whats incredible is where you used to miss a meeting if you couldnt be there, yesterday i was on a group with four people from miami and ten people from new york and in the and we were talking to a Major Hedge Fund manager with 20 people from around the country where we used to just think about our business in person. So weve actually stepped up our activity weve pivoted on a dime, and were finding our members are desperate for the kind of connectivity weve been building for 21 years im not saying were making hay. We have a lot of pivoting to do and a lot of changes, but our team has pivoted and our members are responding we actually are growing because this is one of the few environments where people who are trying to make sense of the current environment can talk to peers and really get firsthand perceptions that they couldnt get through any other messaging. Michael, its a widely held view that globalization, supply chains peaked a few years ago and then trade concerns came in. I wonder how much do you think were going to repatriate supply chains from a for manufacturing standpoint and what that does to the Service Manufacturing mix of the economy over the long term well, i think the biggest impact is in the emerging markets where the western countries are going to have various degrees of medical capacity to flatten the curve. Youre going to have herd infections in the emerging countries where they dont have the medical resources, and when you combine that with this phenomenon that youre talking about, every country is now going to want to have more manufacturing for critical needs in their own country, and thats going to be a double whammy. Thats why you see the emerging markets in much worse shape spread widening out. I think argentina defaulted. Ecuador might not be far behind. The answer is yes, there will be more manufacturing but the service economy, the new manufacturing is going to be very hightech and use every amount of technology so im not sure that youll see it in employment numbers as much as youll see it in trade flows michael, in your meetings that you were describing of the ultra wealthy members that you gather, you said theres a lot of talk in the notes im reading here of three stocks in particular, delta, disney and jpmorgan what are the discussions like . Are they seen as buying opportunities by your members . Sure. Well, i think theyre really the relative icons of their respective industries. Theres no businesses that are better respected than jpmorgan in the banking sector. Disney in the entertainment sector, and delta in the Airline Sector and we use those as a way of thinking about whats the new economy going to come back and clearly the first two are tough, and now with banking with zero Interest Rates, jpmorgan is tough. We say would you rather own the stock for the longterm, but among our members are some of the great traders who remind us when youre coming out of a downturn like this, whenever it starts, its almost impossible to beat the etf or index so stock picking is not for the faint of heart more predictably, if you buy the relative index, whether its a Broader Market or banking index, its really hard to trade better when youre coming out, because the gains across the board are quite big. Those are three of our favorite stocks but whether people are piling into them right now is less clear. Yeah. Well, michael, we appreciate your time and your insights. Thank you. Thank you founder and chairman taking a break here interesting action here. Hanging on the gains even though Oil Inventories were way above forecasts. A oil hanging onto almost 24. 50. Back in a minute isnt just a department. Its a voice on the other end of the phone. A note to say youre on our mind. A willingness to come to you. The world and how we interact with each other is changing. But that will never change who we are at lexus. Now, more than ever, you and your needs come first. Find out what Service Options are available in your area at lexus. Com people first as china deals with the fallout of the covid19, one expert evaluates the response and the ssleolicpoib pital consequences more squawk on the street is coming up. Our Retirement Plan with voya gives us confidence. Yeah, they help us with achievable steps along the way. So we can spend a bit now, knowing were prepared for the future. Surprise we renovated the guest room, so you can live with us. Oooh, well. Im good at my condo. Oh. I love her condo. Nana throws the best parties. Well planned, well invested, well protected. Voya. Be confident to and through retirement. Lets get to Rick Santelli and get the Exchange Morning again, rick. Good morning, thank you, carl id like to welcome my guest nathan sheetz. Its your background of 18 years at the fed, served as undersecretary of treasury that i want to concentrate on, nathan bear with me well learn a lot of things over the next couple of days well learn tomorrow that job less claims so claims soared again, the metrics of the gdp i know, i listen to larry kudlow, if you take care, listen to the ppe, once leveraged we have about 6 to 10 trillion to help stand in place a 22 trillion economy so what i want you to tell me is in simplified terms, how much does 6 to 10 trillion buy me in other words, does it buy me a month, two months, three months . Because i think thats really helpful information for those triedi trying to handicap those dealing with their portfolios at a time theyre more worried about their health. As you say, we are seeing an economic shock of unprecedented magnitude. But also coming online is economic stimulus of similarly unprecedented magnitude. The fed has moved very aggressively providing liquidity and supporting the economy we have this enormous fiscal stimulus package my feeling the way this will work out over time were feeling the shock first but over the next say, month to two or three months, there is going to be a flood of stimulus thats going to be coming online and providing support. On balance, its still going to be a really tough period and the Second Quarter is going to be a disaster in terms of gdp growth but you think that this stimulus is going to support us and propel us toward recovery during the second half of the year. You know, nathan, i guess, heres my problem. Im just a strange guy i think disaster for gdp is the wrong word disaster is oh my god out of left field we were sailing along what happened to gdp thats a disaster. When you turn the switch off, thats expected. Disaster and expected to me arent con grew went what i want to know, we have a Health Crisis, the way to combat it is shutdown the economy and like the game show, does 6 to 10 trillion buy us not vowels but one month, two months, three months . Quantify it in terms lik that youre right in the magnitude, that the entire economy is being shutdown but also by the fact its engineered shutting down the economy is the objective were pursuing here in order to defend our health in terms of how much time it gugu buys us its more on the other side and fuelling recovery, its going to support us some over the next several months but the economic stimulus and thrust i think is more likely to kick in during the second half of the year when people feel comfortable going back out, spending, going back to work and so forth excellent nathan, its a difficult topic i thank you for helping us to understand it better sarah, back to you rick, thank you dow is up 300. We have every sector positive right now. Well take a qck cmeuiomrcial break. Stay with us on our breaking news coverage. Yes. Its the first word of any new discovery. But when allergies attack, the excitement fades. Allegra helps you say yes with the fastest nondrowsy allergy relief and turning a half hearted yes, into an all in yes. Allegra. Live your life, not your allergies. Markets moving higher this morning with every s p 500 sector in the green. Energy outperforming as you can see there. You have apache, noble energy, marathon among the leaders today. But the badly battered sector still down a whopping20 from highs. Data out in the last hour showed crude inventories rised to the highest levels since june of 2018 now we look to the opec plus meeting tomorrow, the g20 minister meeting on friday where well see if Global Energy players can reach an agreement on cuts. Ill send it back to you on squawk on the street thank you, ill take it just check out the Market Action we are seeing right now. Looked like we were going to have a repeat of yesterday where we saw a rally at the open and that faded the dow now up 260 points all sectors are green, energy the outperformer farmers across the country are having to change it up right now as their Food Service Customers are disappearing and Grocery Stores cant take up the slack jane wells joining us from california with more on the challenges that the Food Supply Chain is facing. Morning, jane. Reporter were out here where its berry season and over the next couple months theres going to be 45,000 farm workers picking berries here the issue is different based on where you are. Were told out here that, quote, the Food Supply Chain is, quote, messed up. Thats by dris cal farms, which is a more than a 3 billion a year berry industry. For them they lost all their Food Service Customers, had to pivot to grocery and as we know going to the Grocery Store that has been an issue finding fruit on shelves and the Grocery Stores may not be able to take the excess supply what growers like driscol is hoping is the food banks will be given money and then the food banks can buy the excess fruit the h2a visa Program Brings in a lot of workers from mexico, the federal government was going to suspend new visas but theyre allowing existing visa holders in so far there there was a question if unemployment spikes why not have americans do these jobs but as some growers are telling us, even though theyre paying over minimum wage, they cant compete with the new unemployment wages of an extra 600 a week. And the real issue is, no farm worker will admit any farm worker is ill yet. Really even though you can keep them apart in the field and theyre wearing face coverings, difficult to do in the dormitories which are mandated for foreign workers, and if a farm worker gets sick that can wipe out your labor force. Back to you. So many dynamics in that one story whether its immigration or food supply in this country thank you, our jane wells. Welcome to squawk alley. A lot of cross currents once again today even though the markets trying to hold onto some gains and extend whats been a my ra miraculous rally in some ways this week. And were looking to see what the congress will do with additional sba fed loans and then well get a sense what was going on in the key meeting last month. Weve seen so many days of dramatic market moves in the index in h