I think we should start by checking where we are. Were in the midst of a big snap back day the dow is back over 20,000. Pushing a 9 gain of 1600. The s p good for nearly 8 theres the nasdaq as well up close to 7 . Have we turned a corner . I dont think so. I think technicians is what is referred to as a counter trend move its nice to have. I think people could use a break from just the persistant and constant selling were looking at stocks in the s p 500 be p t the percentage of stocks making fresh hundred day lows that number is slowing down. A few days ago it was high 80s right now its low 60s i think thats pretty good i think well take that. Again, these are the types of days that give you the opportunity judge, if you were panicking and you felt you were too exposed, this would be the kind of day if youll lighten up from a 60 40 portfolio to a 50 50. If you look at the biggest names its happening in areas that have been thrashed mgm up 33 Royal Caribbean up 31 im looking at ual up 24 . They are selling the walmarts, the vozooms, the costcos that h been working thats counter trend but take it dont get upset about it its nice to get a break i was thinking the same thing, stephanie lets see if we can put two of these together and not one big up day that everybody sells into because they dont believe in the move do you think theres staying power . I do. Theres unlimbed qe. They can buy when ever they want for as long as they want and it gives them the flex blts to ibid that i think the fed program yesterday addresses liquidsty issues it buffers the outflow that we have seen all last week and it should lead to stabilization maybe not right away but i think it will in the coming weeks. Thats the most important thing to start secondly, youve got to get this fiscal package well see what it looks like two trillion looks like the number im glad its two versus one, if thats the case. We dont know how long this will go on. That gives them the flexibility as well. Theyve got to get this thing passed soon. Small businesses are just crippled right now we got to get that i think if they do and when they do, that will also be viewed positively i dont think were out of the woods on volatility, scott im glad were down from 80 in the mid50s. I have said all along volatility will stay in place. I think scott, most people share that optimism. Why is not every one stepping in and not buying the market right now. The liquidit highlighted in the last couple of days have improved. Stock of amazon. Last couple of days amazon was 10 wide from the bid to the offer. Today its back to about 1 to 2 wide. We all think we will be higher i believe in that myself i think you want to look at the functioning of the market. The numbers seem to be improving there. Thats lending the form of optimism to the trading community. I know most of you didnt have the opportunity to listen to new yorks governor andrew cuomo. He was very sobering he had a rather sort of grim outlook on the cases that are going to still emerge in new york city. Joes point is well taken. Theres great concern in this country to where things will go especially in the hot spots. I want you to listen to what david tepper told me yesterday stocks could go down another 10 . Maybe were in the process of butting in a bottom. Here is what he said about the market now im nibbling there. I would say im nibbling there a bit of health care today hospitals and such im nibbling in the tech sort of stuff. Im also buying corporate, some corporate loans, sort of junk loans today. We do a lot of bonds were doing some of that today some bank debt yeah, were doing, you know, we are nibbling no question about it were along a few different asset classes. Things look really interesting for the long term. Shannon, you can take that as a dose of optimism for certain coming from david tepper who at the same time, its worth noting make it clear this is a stick your toe in the market and not your whole two feet. For clients that have cash and have cash that they need over the next three to six months, were not looking to put that money to work some of the disconnect immating from the bond market the bond market has been trading on the threat of insolvency. You can try to discount your expectations for lower revenues and earnings if you look at the bond market and they are thinking about companying no longer being a going concern, thats where you get the rapidity of declines if you want to move from 60 40 to 50 50, today is a great day. John, i want to know about volatility but i also want to know picking up where we left off with tepper, when he was talking about buying there and nibbling there, i asked him specifically about some of the larger marquee names in tech that he owns whether its amazon or grade schooling ingoogle orl headliner names. Are those the kinds of stocks that you should be buying today. Im curious as to what youre doing. I consolidated by positions down from 35 to 40 down to four stocks. One of the issues we worry about and i would have been happy to be wrong about this but when they shut the trading floors down on march 13th, friday the 13th, that was the last day they had traders on the floor or the cboe when that happened you had a significant disconnect in the futures markets as well as in i Derivatives Market when i say significant, things we have not seen before. You and i went back about various huge firms, billion dollar Trading Companies that might be going out because of that move. Because until they did an emergency rule pass on friday, there was not the abilities to do a lot of the trades that needed to be done in order to avert the volatility explosion we saw because they did not, until that friday evening after our last friday evening, rather, until those things were addressed. Let me ask you this is volatility too expensive today to buy it still is too expensive to buy here its still going down. The vxx last night really big trade, scott in the puts of the vxx. Thats short term volatility etn, Exchange Traded note. They came in with a abandon buying puts on that. They were dead on. The etn fell from 55 or 56 where it was it broke 40 briefly today. That was a sign that fever was sort of breaking it is still quite high i think there are still a little work to be done. Youll hear that from tony dwyer, im sure. After we have this kind of panic sell off and then that reaction higher, to everybodys point it seems that people want to see a retest it doesnt mean the volatility will be as high on that retest but it is likely well see some sort of retest and maybe that comes because they dont like they hear in the stimulus bill we dont know. To docs point, dwyer is out with commentary that says the following. While we expect a rally that could recoup 30 to 40 of the drop from peak which was the case in 87 and 2011, respectively we continue to wait for panic low to wait for the position you could string a few of these moves together its going to be really difficult for investors to sit there and wait for another, what you could say is a panic low, isnt it i dont like the analogs. I love tony. I dont like the analogs hes using. First of all, most of your viewers may not be aware, 1987, the s p 500 closed up. 2011, the s p closed, i think flat or slightly up for the year in neither case did those massive sell offs whether were talking about the crash of 87 or were talking about the fall of 2011 during the european crisis, in neither case did those bear markets occur from all time record highs we just watched a stock market go down 30 in 22 days from a record high and unlike prior recessions, were not talking about a situation where people feel a little bit less confident so they spend 20 less than they used to. How about a situation where people cant spend money if they tried because they are being told to stay at home 25,000 infections in new york state and Governor Cuomo told us a half an hour ago that the number is doubling every three days i dont like those analogs i dont think they make any sense in this context. I understand what hes trying to say. I dont think it will be helpful. This is unchartered territory. Now, do we need a retest does it have to happen no the bottom in march of 2009 was never retested to this day if you are waiting for that, what you watched was a v shape recovery in the s p 500 that took us up 40 by june 1st of this year. 40 and you never got the retest i know people are trying to come up with past situations and whatted. I really dont think any of what we have been through in American History is aolymppplicable. We may go test the lows. Those particular moves that happen to the down side and say tech, for example. Thats where i specifically asked mr. Tepper about you have to make a calculus in the long term those are the stocks that are going to be able to recover faster and they are worth buying today if youre a longer Term Investor even if you believe that the bottom could be 10 lower than where it is now or you could get a full retest of the lows. St stocks kpleetsly under performed will be as wide as we ever witnessed i think what youre trying to identify now and every one is talking about the s p 500. Stop talking about the s p 500 talk about companies that are trading distinctively better than the s p 500 talk about intel that is trading up 11 in the last five days while the s p is down 6 . You have xpi all higher. The divide between stocks that are going to work moving forward in the s p versus the one that wont will be as wide as can be. It hasnt felt very good. What im focusing on is upgradesing the portfolio. Thats what ive been doing in terms of buying high quality companies. Blue chip, best in show, great Balance SheetsProven Management teams with a good bench. Why wont i pick a bit after that company mcdonalds, the same drill, down 27 that month a great Balance Sheet. The stock is down 27 in a month. Already discounting a whole bunch. I would say you have to barbell it a bit i dont want to own just kind of defensive quality compoundsercc. They should ben fits i dont think 6. 1 dividend yield is safe. If they cut it, i think people would applaud that to approve their cash and Balance Sheet i was been cleaning up in energy i soulld out of diamond back i already owned chevron. On technology, were asking before, i bought twitter i think thats precash flow growth theyre seeing is tremendous they will see a hiccuhiccup josh, did i haerp you say you agree . I think star b starbucks is e run. I think stephanie is doing the right thing. Shes not going to 100 cash or 50 . Thats not in her man date look at the exposures and ask yourself, do i own the best company or the third best company. If i own the third best company, i shouldnt. I did exactly that i got out of bun can i had been in the stock for six years and change did very well with earlier in the crisis i said i want the make some room because its if they crush starbucks from its high of 100, and they did, id rather be in that stocks would not stop going down ended up in the mid50s. Now its back above 60 i dont know if i got the best price that starbucks will ever sell at. Im going to tell you we had this term back in 2001 when i was a young broker and the hot trend then was something called affordable luxury. Starbucks was one of the hottest stocks in that bear market it did very well during that time because if people couldnt afford to buy a brand new f150, fully loaded pick up from ford, they could afford to buy a latte. That is going to apply in this recession. I think starbucks is one of the biggest winners out of this crisis i went to one of their drive through operations having used the app to order there were 20 cars in front of me and i still got done in five minutes. These people are on their game i love that idea that stephanie had. Im happy to be on the same trade with her if ever there was a leap of faith market, this is it you have no way of knowing how long these dislocations are going to last. How long this social distancing is going to go on and you have no idea what earnings are going to be to try and value what stocks should price at youre making leaps of faith based on fundamental analysis, the best you can do it which is so difficult in and of itself right now. Would you agree . 100 . I have no clarity in terms of earnings for any company not even the consumer stables companies that are probably the least impacted or the utilities as well. What im trying to do is trying to look at Balance Sheets because thats really important. If i believe the Balance Sheets are strong, precash flow strong and sustainable then i can believe in the dividend yield. Im buying at a four, five, six, eight percent dividend i do remember back in the day someone said when i first started on wall street, dont fight the fed and they just went all in yesterday i think thats very much a nice fact stop for the time being they did go all in and its powerful those investors as well that ive been speaking with on the side think the same thing. Im looking at the screen now. The major averages is at the high of the day. Right now the dow is up 9 20,2 20,267 the s p 500 is good for 8 on this anticipation of getting something done in d. C. When ever they do schedule and hopefully pass the bill that theyve put forth or several bills as it were shannon, tell me what youre doing in your portfolio today . Taking a look at the companies we own but allowing ourselves some growth. For instance, we swapped out broadcom for Arista Networks if youthink about that trade, broadcom is highly leveraged Arista Network has been hit hard but they have great cash flow. They have no debt. I think that kind of looking at cloud Going Forward, we want to be exposed to that we bought cisco. Its been in our portfolio we added to cisco. We feel that offers us an opportunity to go back to companies we really like we sold boeing ive been with you and talked about boeing over the course of the last year as much as i think there will be some assistance for boeing, i dont really want to buy into a stock that the Free Cash Flow is going to be heavily scrutinized by the government we sold the position it wasnt a great sell we bought it at a much higher price and sold it at a much lower price. When i look at a company like u. P. S. , id much rather have my expectations of growth baked into that stock over the next couple of years. Do we get pop because of the online spopi inshopping were s now . Of course we do. Id rather put it in a name like u. P. S. Versus boeing i think boeing will make it. Its important to the u. S. Economy but my view is theres opportunities to improve the portfolio and take some Growth Opportunities in there were happy with the names that we have been able to swap out over the last couple of days well take a quick break. Up next we have a special guest joining us the interview will begin in just two minutes. Want to give you a reminder as well tomorrow night on cnbc at 7 00 eastern, its a special report markets in turmoil ill be hosting a cnbc town hall the pandemic and the path forward. Gary cohen is the former chief economic add vise adviser to pr trump. He joins us with mark cuban, john rogers and dr. Scott gotley cant wait for that. Well ask our panelists questions, your questions from twitter. Send them to us. Thats tomorrow night at 7 00 p. M. Eastern on cnbc halftimes ckig aer is iba rhtft in the Transportation Industry without knowing firsthandness the unique challenges in that sector . Coming out here, seeing the infrastructure firsthand, we can make better informed investment decisions. Thats why i go beyond the numbers. When it comes to your business internet, which is more important . Okay, i wish i didnt have to choose. Like the more i think about it, the more i want to jump to each room. What if i said you can have it all . Comcast business gives you connectivity that goes beyond. Thats what we want thats speed, reliability, and security, all from one provider. Touchdown comcast business goes beyond with the extraordinary speed, reliability and security your business needs. Call today. Comcast business. Beyond fast. Ithat car is one of mine. And soon, its going to be one of theirs. But they would have never even known it existed. If it werent for the power of targeted tv advertising. Its smart. It grabs peoples attention. It works. Its why Comcast Spotlight is changing its name to effectv. Because being effective means getting results. We are adding to our gains as you see there lets break away to sue for the headlines. Hello heres whats happening at this afternoon. New york states governor is making a blunt plea for more help from the federal government he says confirmed cases are doubling every three days with nearly 26,000 positive cases in the state and 210 deaths he says estimates point to a crisis with 40,000 people requiring intensive Care New York now has just 3,000 intensive care beds in total Governor Cuomo says new york will not be the only state facing such critical conditions. New york is the canary in the coal mine. New york is going first. We have the highest and the fastest rate of infection. What happens to new york is going to wind up happening to california and Washington State and illinois its just a matter of time mexico is stepping up its response to the outbreak with a onemonth ban on all public and private gatherings Health Officials say they are seeing transmit cases. The virus stayed on surfaces for two weeks. Researchers found that among the 712 passengers who tested positive, nearly half of them showed no symptoms for more information on the coronavirus, you can head to cnbc. Com scott, back the you. I was doing a double take at the two plus weeks fact that the virus remained on that cruise ship asymptommatic as well were adding to our gains at this hour. Were pushing close to a 10 gain well show all three right now we might about what might happen across the board green arrows pretty much everywhere for the moment. Our special guest is Brad Gerstner he joins us by phone brad, welcome. Its good to talk to you thank, got. Thanks for having me on. Great coverage the last few weeks. Thank you so much i hope you and your family are well tell me how you view the market here well, obvious today is a historic gain. We all have to step back and realize whats at stake here is way bigger than a one day move in the market. This is not a clearing event for the market we cant look at 2001, 2008 as a good proxy for whats going on here the level of demand destruction, revenue destruction and economic calamity on a global basis is truly unprecedented. The world is on a global lockdown as well it should be. While im optimistic about the future, theres more at stake at this very moment than what is happening one day in the market. Whats at stake and what needs to happen and were taking these steps although they feel very slowly is first the government has to give an absolute backstop has to go all in to get us through this period of natural crisis when we return to normalcy and secondly we begin to develop antivirals and vaccines that can get us back to living comfortably and normal putting all that into perspective then, what are you specially doing if we havent had the clearing event or series of them as you just suggested, what are you doing with your own portfolio . Unfortunately, during these periods of time our job is first and foremost is risk manager of our clients assets. We have covered the names in our sort book. If you have time on your side, which we do, we think they will be extraordinary in are extraordinary opportunities in this market. For many investors and its natural, particularly for Retail Investors which is unfortunate, you have max fear and you want to get out of the market at precisely the wrong time. One of responsibilitys of government is to calm citizen, calm investors so they dont lock in those losses these great businesses will be worth a lot more than they are today. Sounds like youre taking your own up side case, if you will, if you just told me you have gone from 10 net long to 75 net long and you covered most, if not all of your short book scott, i want to be very clear because i think this is a dangerous message to send to Retail Investors i dont know where im going to be in ten days the metaphor is im in the cockpit of a fighter jet and i cant tell you my flight path because i dont know the facts that will be coming at me. In normal times we can do fundamental Analysis Companies and we can designate that flight path these are not normal times so, if we have, you know the growth factor in china, taiwan an italy kicks back up, if we dont make the progress that i expect us the make, well be in a position where we have to protect, you know, protect and mitigate against losses. The same thing is true today the market, we have names in the market up 30 or 40 today. You have to reassess the risk today based upon those prices and based on that new set of facts. I dont want to give an indication its all clear and everybody should go all in on the market here. Im trying to be as transparent as we can about what were doing in other words to manage through what is truly a stressful crisis i get it. I understand it. I think our viewers are grateful for the transparency in the market what do you think about a name Like United Airlines today and that space in general as you look forward in. You know, as you know weve been investors in united for a long time. We saw the crisis developing earlier this year in china we did what we could to mitigate the loss something that a lot of Retail Investors dont do or cant do and so theres been times over the course of the last six weeks where we have been net Short Airlines even though we havent sold our United Airlines again, im being more transparent today because i think its really important not to send a message that nothing is changing. This is a nobody ever modelled a moment of zero revenue. The burn of the Airline Industry on payroll alone is 150 million a day. You cant last on zero revenue, 150 million of payroll expense a day without the government stepping in and, so, you have to assess in realtime how risk reward is changing as of today we own all the shares weve owned in united as you saw the other day. We filed a 13g. We were buying more shares in united when the stock was down however, again, it is a very perilous moment to be trying today trade stocks i dont advise that for Retail Investors watching and while the stock is up a lot today, there is no doubt in my mind this industry is going to look different in the future. I certainly think theres going to be winners and losers i think we could see some of these stocks even higher than they were before i dont expect to have that event three months from now. I think investors, including our limited partners have to be prepared this is going to be quite a haul to get past this traumatic event for our economy. I do notice in your notes today this you say you launched a public special Purpose Vehicle where investors can put in money for a threeyear vehicle that will bet on a couple of Leisure Companies for the long term. You tell me the thought process behind that. We had some world class investors say we think this is over done. We dont think the world will exist without United Airlines. We dont think the world will exist without uber theyre willing to lock up their capital for longer they want a more concentrated bet on a couple of those ideas they think we have distinguished ourselves in our abilities to manage that risk reward. Were happy to do it for them. I have to say, you know, during moments like this, you know we all do a lot of evaluate about our communities, our families and for me about this partnership that we created. You know, remember, were managing money on behalf of cities like the city of San Francisco and their teachers and firefighters and their pensioners i take that responsibility exceptionally to heart there is no winner in the airlines going bankrupt. Thats a Million People out of jobs its investors who are losing their Retirement Savings its investors like us who are not making money on behalf of folks like teachers in San Francisco. I think this is a moment where everybody has to realize solidarity is at hand. We all rise or we fall together. This is not an act that anybody has create d like 2008. This theres no bad actors here. Its totally unpredictable its exactly the type of event that government and only government can bridge and so i think its the right move by the fed to go all in congress is going to go all in with their Balance Sheet this isnt going to be a one trillion or a two trillion tlar deal by the time this is done its going to be a ten trillion dollar bridge to get us to the other side of this but we are going to get to the other side investors that have Like University endowments and others that have ten year views of the world know these are some extepgsal opportunities to put capital the work we have pretty extraordinary inflows into our fund from investors who want to have more exposure not less. Thats not in and of itself a clearing event we will take the facts as they come at us how should we look at a company, which i know you own, uber, moving forward people doing Different Things in the way they will make a living. How do you think about that as it relates to a company about uber showing why this model is so excellent. 80 variable cost. No Liquidity Risk in the business frankly, i think its a vital part of our distribution infrastructure this is taking six people through drive through testing. This is getting food to seniors. These are the moments when you see the indispensable nature of these marketplaces in terms of the business on a go forward basis, while we know that in hong kong and in taiwan at the trough business was down 70 . He articulated last week theyve already seen a rebound to down 30 . We think these trends will accelerate on the other side of this uber will be an even bigger winner because a lot of less capitalized competition wont exist on the other side. Their eats business is doing extraordinarily well because people are eating more at home i think social distancing is going to teach us all a lot about Behavioral Changes i would say this i think they cancel cool, i dont expect to be getting in cars necessarily with strangers. Theres an argument people will be less likely to use Public Transportation and less likely to be in other places. You might see an acceleration on the other side of people willing to pay a premium i dont suspect that will happen very soon. In a case of uber, we look at this we think this is the type of stock that just last week at 15 dollar a share, we expect it to be up three or four times over a period of 18 months to 20 months you know, exceptional opportunities but obviously, you have to be willing to step into the breach during these moments of maximum fear. Yeah, all good thoughts theres more i want to do with you. I do also want to open it up to our gang i know they would like to participate in this conversation you mentioned, josh, at the outset when we started, josh, what do you have for brad . I think brad said something so important for every one thats watching this to think about. The nature of the news thats at the center of this crisis is so completely unknowable. If somebody said to me in six months the dow will be 15,000 and here is why. I could probably be talked into that if the next person said the dow will be 25,000 and here is why i could be talked into that too. Im going to tell you to echo what brad said you know who you really have to be afraid of right now the number one person that you need to just run away from and rip your money away from yourself. The person that tells you exactly whats about to happen the person who is so certain in their version of the outcome from here. Thats who you need to be terrified of as an investor. Fortunately, i dont hear any ceos talking that way and very few Fund Managers speaking that way. The ones that are, honestly, personally, they frighten me they are either making it up or they actually believe they know whats going to happen in either case, i dont think investors are served by paying attention. I totally agree with what brad had to say i hope every one is managing their money that way brad. The place the thing we do in moments of peak uncertainty like this, first, you cant be overly dogmatic. You have to view the future as unknown in the distribution of probabilities. You do try to find those places where you can have max conviction and are most certain. The further i move out on the time spectrum, the problem is we have phase mismatch here the further i move out, the more conviction i can have in a world that looks more normal to the one we just knew getting overly locked in this idea that were headed into a depression or that everything is uncertain and always unknowable, i also think is perilous one of the points behind that public spv is if you take a threeyear view, its a lot easier to make a bet at some of these prices embed in that is im an optimistic look warren buffet, im always going to bet on optimism we may be on the losing side but it isnt going to matter any way. This is a time certain event this is going to end i happen to believe that when i look around me at our communities and our country, whats going on with congress and the fed stepping in, the bending of the curve in china. The bending of the curve in south korea and the bending in italy, et cetera two to three weeks from now we could have a radically different view listen, the amazing people working the front lines here the amazing work thats being done in communities around social distancing, were already beginning to bend the curve. On top of that, what were doing around antivirals, around vaccine development, around new test development, much of which im contributing to or investing in, this is going to get us to the other side of this again, im not going to make the call today whether its three month, six months or nine months the market will get there before everybody else does. To be clear, a two or three year bet by me views the world more constructive im not saying the economy in 2021 will be bigger than in 2019 im not sure if thats the case in 2022. Theres lots of individual companies that are are discounting a much more dire future than that stephanie, you have something for brad yeah, hi brad i appreciate your long term view i agree with you you better the chances youll see appreciation in stock prices im wondering if theres something on the shorter term youre looking at. Is it yield, dollar . Is it inflatioinflation . Things or the margin are starting to look better and you would put more money to work well, ill tell you talked to 30 ceos on saturday and sunday we go straight to the front line were talking with our companies. Were tracking the data. Were listening to the listenins if you listen just on your air this morning, Kevin Johnson i think has some of the best insight. Starbucks has watched all these curves bend in china he knows the pace of recovery and gave us an important piece of information through the first three weeks of impact in the u. S. , the curve looks almost identical to the curve in china im not saying that means the next five weeks will but i think thats instructive as to where we might head. You know, james quincy has that same visibility. Arnie carlson from mar yriott saying theyre encouraged by the signs in china so we go to the front lines and just follow the facts. You know, so were talking to our companies and software companies, software has been resilient. Even though the Gross Software index is down 30 , 40 , the fact of the matter is, its acted incredibly resilient when we talk to our Biggest Companies inthe Software Space companies who like snowflake are providing vital infrastructure to enterprises in the cloud, theyre seeing amazing resilience in our business this isnt to say theres not going to be a reverberation. If we go into a deep, deep recession or worse, it will flow downhill to everybody. United is going to spend less money this year on software than they were otherwise going to spend. I get that at the same time, we think this is when fundamental analysis, when investors who are not trying to day trade the vix and getting whip sawed by shorting and buying, but doing your work on the front line, slowing down, taking a deep breath, consolidating behind your best ideas, thinking like owners. We own parts of these companies and were going to own them for a long period of time. And then following the facts if we need to put edges on, well put hedges on, if we need to derisk, well derisk. But im not looking for a magic signal in the market im listening to the ceos, the sales people on the front line and watching that data joe brad, so what do you say to the investor who i have spoken to quite a lot in the last week who is saying, well, the recovery in the equities market off of 2008 and 2009 was largely fueled by the Federal Reserve and buybacks this recovery is going to be absent buybacks. How do investors feel about that kind of market you know, so on the whole, all of Corporate America is going to be more levered, right . Because everybody is going to have to take on some leverage in order to bridge this time. And so i do think there will be less buybacks and i think therell be less dividends so youre just rebuilding the Balance Sheet. Remember, a buyback, theres nothing magic about a buyback. Im taking dollars off my Balance Sheet and giving those to my owners if i dont do that, they remain on my Balance Sheet as excess capital. That should be reflected in the equity price so whether its distributed to or not distributed to you by way of a dividend, a stock buyback or just retained capital, the fact is, as equity owners, we ought to benefit either way. I think when i think about whats going to fuel this rally, the economy was in a relatively strong place lets say that we were all complacent and multiples were too high risk premiums were too low i think we all felt that i talked about it with scott on air multiple times over the course of the last nine months we had derisked a lot of our portfolio. Companies were getting funded with negative Unit Economics that should never have been funded now those businesses are all going to go out of business. Theres no capital for them. And so theres part of this, while i dont celebrate the stress of entrepreneurs going out of business or folks losing their job, this happened in 2008 it also gave rise out of those ashes to companies liar airbnb, uber engineers are inventive. Our economy sin veis inventive you know, im leaning forward, were feisty about where were going to go from here. But we have to be protective of capital along the way. So i dont buy this argument that somehow were not going to have a recovery this time. But i will say that our base case is obviously this year is going to be devastating for the economy. I dont think were going to exit the year back at trend the way Kevin Johnson mentioned this morning on air i think its going to be a slower recovery. I think next year is going to continue to be slow. But i do believe and i do see a future where were on the other side of this virus, where we either have a vaccine or antivirals that work. Where we have massive global stimulus and where our entrepreneurs and ceos are doing what they do best. More importantly, i think were all going to be tired of sitting in our houses. People are ready to get out, theyre ready to spend, theyre ready to get back to work. Were realizing those things that are important to us in life right . As a friend said to me, you know, this is the universe sending us all a message you know, perhaps the message is, you know, we all became a little too selfabsorbed and its an opportunity to really appreciate those things that matter most to us in life. I think people are going to be ready to get out of their homes and so youre going to have a lot of pent up demand. I watched this in 2001 i watched it after norovirus and ebola. I watched it after sars and i watched it after 2008. Humans are inherently social creatures and you may see more masks on Public Transportation for a long time. You know, im going to bet on that future, and im going to work hard and our firm is going to work hard to help create that future i think the calling for all business leaders, this is the moral call that kevin articulated so well this morning on your air, is our obligation right now is not to maximize profits. Our obligation right now is as citizens, is as community members, and its to sep tep upr people in need and double our contributions for people in need but also to keep working and keep paying our employees. Two, three, four weeks from now it will look very different. The government is now in place to backstop and get us through this panic so im constructive, though not certainly dont have my hand in the stand about the shape of that recovery or thinking were going to snap back understood. The line from johnson this morning, which i think will live on and certainly resonates i tweeted it at the moment, because i thought it was powerful at the time in the interview jim and david were doing. This is a time to prioritize people over profits. I have less than three minutes to go in this program, brad. Address what you know about whats going on in the valley to help the rest of the country, whether its ventilators, equipment, what can the best of the valley do to help the rest of the country you know, im so encouraged and so proud of what i see going on around us first, everybody just went into panic and lockdown and worried about their families the same way they did everywhere else but this happens to be a place of excess capital and extraordinary engineering talent so whether its the production of ventlators ive seen massive new efforts in building different tests. Test for antibodies, tests way more sensitive to early detection. The production of emergency medical equipment, masks, you name it. Everybody is pivoting to the cause. And the good thing is that it will permanently change how we think about the threat of a pandemic Going Forward the next administration will have a cabinet level position that will be the head of Infectious Disease we will have a level of preparedness forever around these issues and i think thats i think its warranted and a good thing. I think Silicon Valley is prepared and will do its part. Part of the reason im so confident that were going to develop these things is talking to people at the epicenter of drug and test development. Were going to have widespread testing thats going to be the best in the world. I think were going to be the other side of the antivirals and the therapeutics and vaccines way sooner than people think. However, until we get there, people will continue to exercise and should exercise. Dramatic caution the last 30 seconds one thing, if we all went into personal e aal isolation f days, by definition, we would go below a growth factor of one in this country 14day incubation period so social distancing, and actually taking a leadership position in doing that, it is the least we can do to help our communities during this period and once we get through that, im confident were going the start moving around again faster than people think. 20 seconds. C3test. Org, tell me quickly about it well, again, this is just one of many, many efforts that thanks for bringing it up that are developing more sensitive tests. One of the problems with this disease with this virus is that its asymptomatic. We have people Walking Around without symptoms for three or four days that infect 2. 3 people on average thats what has led to the widespread nature of this. So much different than sars where you had symptoms, so you would know to selfquarantine. What this test will allow you to do is know immediately if you have it, so you can selfquarantine before the symptoms show up so i would encourage everybody that is one of the many exceptional places you can donate to make a difference. We appreciate your time today and your vision. Brad, thank you so much. Thanks for having me on that does it fo