I think we should start by checking where we are. Were in the midst of a big snap back day the dow is back over 20,000. Pushing a 9 gain of 1600. The s p good for nearly 8 theres the nasdaq as well up close to 7 . Have we turned a corner . I dont think so. I think technicians is what is referred to as a counter trend move its nice to have. I think people could use a break from just the persistant and constant selling were looking at stocks in the s p 500 be p t the percentage of stocks making fresh hundred day lows that number is slowing down. A few days ago it was high 80s right now its low 60s i think thats pretty good i think well take that. Again, these are the types of days that give you the opportunity judge, if you were panicking and you felt you were too exposed, this would be the kind of day if youll lighten up from a 60 40 portfolio to a 50 50. If you look at the biggest names its happening in areas that have been thrashed mgm up 33 Royal Caribbean up 31 im looking at ual up
Its definite. But, and this is a big but, you know what . I think its time that we just shade things i think we should take a little off the table. Why do i say that . Its not just because when i walk around downtown manhattan, im hearing more hey, make me some money cramer catcalls than i am booyah or i love the show sho sho shout outs its all the issues that have dogged the market suddenly seem to have gone away. So im feel like we got to kind of pan gloss moment here pangloss frankly, it means that were in a position let me just say the pangloss sellers, thats not what im talking about, the great vineyard in sonoma i like that. Were not talking about delicious cabernet here. Were talking about voltaires pangloss all is for the best isnt the best of all possible worlds pangloss whenever we start getting that vibe, it makes me want to sell something, because the best of all possible worlds nevertheless first of all, lets talk about whats going on right now, right now because there are
Our road map begins with amazon getting a buy from Bershire Hathaway but not Warren Buffett himself. Amazon is apart of the story we told you as well i po rush closes up 163 why that may not be a good sign for the rest of the mark well start with april payrolls better than expected 263,000. Construction and healthcare. Unemployment goes down to 3. 6. The lowest level in part to a slight drop in the Labor Participation rate that matches last months increase there has been some talks about for example Census Bureau starting to hire for the survey next year could inflate the number yeah, the healthcare number still not as big if you want to be a jerk, you can say manufactures is only 4,000. Berk is saying whats happening u. S. Steel but, look, it is a good number going back to 1969, what the hell is happening . We were funding everything and had huge inflation the vietnam war. It was a time of great turmoil in the country yet, when we look back, we think wow, that must have been some year
One percent. Were red across the board is the market gearing up for a hawkish surprise is that why theres no nvidia bounce, the bounce we had went away the only bounce is in yields that leads me back to the first part of the question, the surprise from jackson hole the market will have a tough time dealing with i think youre on it. Too much in the way of dovish expectation what is jay powell will say hes more likely to maintain the hawkish bent he may say, listen, theres been ro degrees made on inflation but theres more to go i do think youre right in what youre proposing, scott. However, i would point out the market doesnt feel disastrous, at least not to me its off its highs, 3 , 4 , the same for the no, sirasdaq. It doesnt feel like the market is totally on edge the way it was last year. The market responded terribly after jackson hole it feels like, yeah, the market maybe is expecting more than its going to get on friday, but it doesnt feel like it will fall off a cliff, at least t
The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California on May 30, 2024, approved a settled final judgment against technology company Arista Networks' former chairman and CEO,.