Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20240713

Rosengren. And speaking of the fed, yes, there is more. We have an exclusive interview coming up. Loretta mester is the president of the cleveland fed right after the close. Joining us for the hour is charlie with aerial investments. Was this a big sigh of relief after the data from earlier in the week yeah, you know the markets was really nervous about a recession. Thats the conventional wisdom in the market. Theres a lot of evidence that bulls like me keep pointing to that were not, but you can see when we get even a soso number, the markets react very positively Services Growth is slowing and thats the point of contention right now, is does the manufacturing upset bleed into the consumer . And it does, you have a problem. You had a very strong wage growth its not even the fact that unemployment is going down, its that people feel secure in their job. Its a tight job market. People are not worried about losing their job theyre spending more and were still 70 of consumer economy. If they lose their job, there are about a million that are available. Lets focus in on the big stories were watching here today. Bob pisani has a look at the roller coaster look for stocks and josh lipton is watching bullish signs for apple. Bob, to you first on this very wild week for the market and courtney, the jobs report today was just enough to cool down some, but not all of the recession worries. So the momentum guys are out here we had a slow meltup today the volume spiked at around 11 30 eastern time as the european markets close and as the s p 500passed the earlier highs of the day at 10 00 eastern time, several others late in the afternoon. We kept hitting the highs. You can see those circles. As for the week, quite a wild ride here. Take a look at our cool graphic here thank you, gino for doing this for us 1,200 points down in three days and 800 points rally back in the dow here tuesdays weaker manufacturing numbers sparked a severe twoday selloff and a weaker read on the services sector. That was on thursday a beginnings of oversold combinations calmed things down a bit. And today, guys, it looks like investors got the jobs report that they can live with. Scott, back to you turning now to this jobs number, diana olick joins us now from washington. Hey, diana reporter haey, it was a little short of expectations a solid gain of 136,000 jobs in september. The bigger headline was a drop in the Unemployment Rate to 3. 5 thats the lowest level since 1969 average Hourly Earnings lost a penny, so flat for the month, up 2. 9 year over year, thats weaker than weve seen, those annual gains in the past year. The sector seeing big growth were health care, professional business services, and government retail continues to bleed in clothing and accessories, but did see some nice gains in food and bneverage, and manufacturing which everyones watching given the trade war, lost 2,000 jobs meantime, shares of apple getting a boost today on a bullish report out of japans nikkei josh lipton is in San Francisco with more. Reporter so apple has told suppliers to increase production of its new iphone 11 lineup by as much as 10 or 8 Million Units to meet strongerthanexpected demand. That according to the nikkei citing sources apple declining comment on that report to cnbc, but investors moving in today. That stock now up nearly 60 since its low in early january just this week, ceo tim cook telling reporters that sales of the iphone 11 series are off to a very strong start. In his words, he did not reveal specific sales figures scott, back to you josh lipton, thank you. Over to mike santoli now with todays market dashboard were going to start with apple, calling that shopping the gap. You can see investors coming in, take a longterm perspective on where apple has come from. And Tranquility Base is that what this market is right now forming with this market today well take a look at that. And take the money and run a couple of different cuts at this strong jobs number today and some of the other employment indicators bad moon rising. A measure of policy uncertainty, well see what that could mean Going Forward for the market first, shopping the tenyear chart of apple shares. Its fighting its way back up towards the high that was left about a year ago its about 232 a share. The previous two times, you had a very, very dramatic consequential multiyear top in apple shares the first time was 2012. It took about 23 months to get back from that big decline and early 2015, thats about 21 months this would only be about 12 months i think it was october 3rd of last year, which is when you saw the peak in apple shares i want shows you, i dont think anybody would have felt, left turn say in the first week of january this year that apple would be the stock in the enlarged f. A. A. N. G. Group that would be closest to its former high, but that is the case right now, guys. Well see if the actual news on iphone results and terngs push it that way. Charlie, you would have to say that thats a positive if apple is moving back towards a high, thats got to be a good sign for the overall market. And also a good sign for the consumer, which is a 1,000 purchase, which a lot of people are willing to do. We were a little skeptical that they would be willing to pay 1,000 for a better camera, but they seem to be. You seem so skeptical i missed my chance. Charlie, is this an indication to you that apple an such a poster child for the trade war in so many ways, that theres nothing to fear here with regard to this play at this point . Before we overreact too much to this, this is just the ceo saying hes off to a good start. And we havent seen actual sales numbers. The cycles are getting shorter and shorter. If the next is a dud, it wont turn out to be a great investment, but right now it looks like they have a new hot market boston fed president Eric Rosengren sat down with our own Steve Liesman earlier on the halftime report. Heres his outlook on future rate cuts a week after the slowdown fears and weak data i still have an open mind im going to be quite attentive to whats happening with anything that indicates that the consumer is change thaing theirw joining us now is neil duda, head of u. S. Economics at Renaissance Macro research when you put everything together, i tried to make a list and made columns, the good, the bad, the middle. It seems like its something for everyone its choose your own adventure what do you make of how the fed is looking at this mixed data and what they may be doing i think the die is pretty much cast for a rate cut in october. Todays job number notwithstanding. Todays Market Action notwithstanding. You know, Global Growth remains sluggish, the survey data was weak and and i think the fed has a decision every day when it wax up here are what financial conditions look like do i want to validate the Market Pricing or not and i dont want see the fed basically condoning a tightening of financial conditions by not doing anything so if the market is priced for an october cut, the fed will give them an october cut rosengrens point was also like, look, weve done two cuts. Give it a chance it doesnt happen that you dont cut Interest Rates and then theres this dramatic impact in the economy overnight. We did two, give it some time, lets see where we are whats wrong with that well, its a little bit rich since he wasnt really for those cuts in the first place. So, anyway, i would just say hes backed up by an Unemployment Rate at a 50year low, isnt he . I mean is this an economy that needs more accommodation . I think inflation needs more accommodation. The fed has been persistently running below its 2 target for years mow. At the same time, the Strong Economy is welcome but itses s putting upward prer on the u. S. Dollar and that has a mechanical impact on the feds outlook for inflation. That means core inflation will be maybe 20 or 30 basis points lower a year from now. So i think the fed and look at the unemployment situation, right . You mentioned 3. 5 unemployment. If i told you ten years ago we would have 3. 5 unemployment and wage growth would be 3 , i think you would have laughed me out of the room thats exactly what we have. If i told you the same thing, if i said, weve got all of that and were having a debate over whether the fed should cut Interest Rates for the third time, you would have told me, youre out of your mind. If you told me inflation was below 2 , im not so sure i would. They have a man date their mandate is maximum employment, which they dont know what it is, and inflation is below 2 with expectations for inflation slipping not only in the markets but also in surveybased markets of expectations im not an economic bear i think thats widely known. I think the economy is in a goo place. Dont you think its interesting or potentially dangerous that the market is really counting on the fed for a bailout. When you have bad data, the market rallies isnt that a dangerous proposition to be in item yeah, so weve seen a little change in that dynamic, courtney this week, the market went down on bad economic data, even if it increased the chance of a rate cut. And went up today on decent economic data. I would say were right now in a point the market wants better economy, even at the risk of losing a rate cut, which is what i think, frankly, we should be at yes, were technically below 2 inflation, but barely. Todays wage number was 29 i think were in a very good place with the economy, very good place with inflation. I dont think we should be cutting rates. Interesting i mean, powell earlier today was saying its his job to keep the economy going. He said it in the past to keep the expansion going. Theyre going to cut. And Charlie Evans outed himself a couple of weeks ago when he basically said, he was good with where they were. Which basically through a process of elimination, you know that the board of governors at the fed are all onboard for another cut, between now and the end of the year, which is in their dot plot i agree that the data can help and the fed can give the data and the markets a little bit of more time to align, but as i say, financial conditions are important. And the fed has a choice i mean, powell has said repeatedly that one of the reasons why the markets and the economy are up is because weve priced in a lower path of Interest Rates so that same admission that hes going to follow through on those expectations we should see well get some more thoughts later on, too, when miss mester is sitting here with us, the cleveland fed president. Still ahead, dont miss our exclusive interview with the said cleveland fed president , Loretta Mester well get her take on the jobs number, the feds path Going Forward, with expectations now rising for an october rate cut and up next, salesforce Ceo Marc Benioff giving a warning about the future of capitalism i really strongly believe that capitalism as we know it is dead after the break, well discuss whether Companies Need to rethink their priorities with calstrs chief Investment Officer, chris aleman. Mmm. Good. So ive spent my life developing technology to help the visually impaired. We are so good. We built a guide that uses ibm watson. To help the blind. It is already working in cities like tokyo. My dream is to help millions more people like me. Carl, i appreciate the invite here. As my broker, what am i paying you to manage my money . Its racquetball time. thumps ugh carl, does your firm offer a satisfaction guarantee . Like schwab does. Guarantee . splash carl, can you remind me what youve invested my money in . Its complicated. Are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is being managed . If not, talk to schwab. A modern approach to wealth management. 45 minutes left to go in this trading week. Communications company avaya is jumping today after announcing a Strategic Partnership with cloud company, ring central. The partnership will accelerate avayas transformation into the cloud. Those are both up more than 25 . Ringcentral up more than 27 and Amusement Park company cedar fair has reportedly rejected a buyout offer from six flags. Six flags had offered cedar fair a 4 billion cash and Stock Offering cedar fair down 3 and six flag shares are up 1 at this point well, salesforce ceo mark benoff speaking at the tech crunch conference yesterday addressing the changing landscape for capitalism i really, strongly believe that capitalism, as we know it, is dead. That were going to see a new kind of capitalism and that new kind of capitalism thats going toe merge is not the Milton Friedman capitalism that its just about making money. And if your orientation is just about making money, i dont think youre going to hang out very long as a ceo or a founder of a company you have to be more than that in today todays world and certainly have to be more than that in San Francisco and certainly have to be more than that in our tech industry, as well lets bring in now chris aleman, the chief Investment Officer at the california state teachers retirement system. The calstrs fund has been changing the way its investing and looking at environmental, social, and governance factors chris, good to see you zp good to see you what did you think about what benioff said i agree with his comments i think it really is about it still is about making money, but its about making money over the longterm, not the shortterm. I agree with Milton Friedmans original statement, he never mentioned time frame and wall street is thinking thats just 91 days. To me, its about 30 years, and thats what salesforce is about. Its about making money over a long time period, which means you have to consider these other factors about e, s, and g. I mean, are you telling me that Going Forward, youre going to be looking at social impact scores, for example, as much as youre looking at analyst ratings and other things when deciding whether to invest in a company . Scott, im telling you, we do that right now when we look at a company, we look at their financial statements, but we also look at, how do they operate . How do they treat their employees . Whats material to the company because not all of these issues are material to certain companies. To somebody like salesforce, you care about how theyve done on the me too issue, you care about how theyre doing with employee turnover, you care about cybersecurity with a firm like that with an oil company, we care about their coor bon emissions, what do they do with their waste . Its different factors, but if you talk to a credit manager or even talk to charlie as a management adviser, these are longterm factors that you label in we just labeled them today i like you involving our panelists. Well, charlie . So we need to understand the difference between means and ends lets go back to aristotle the means to make profits are things like good relationships with your customers, being a good corporate neighbor, being a Good Environmental neighborhood. But in the end, you have to make profits for your shareholders or none of those groups will do well ask a gm employee how they did with the social responsibility they had when they were losing money. Ask hp today whether it mattered there they were a good Corporate Citizen . So, yes, these are good important means, but you better make money in the end, or theyre going to be finding somebody else to run those assets chris, can you give us any examples of some of the investments youre looking at that would satisfy both of these. Longterm profits for your investors, but are also following the ethos that youre buying into at this point for the e, s, and g . I absolutely can. Because most of our investments, particularly longterm, i dont want a company that will cut corners today just to make profit p profit i need them to make that profit over the next 10, 15, and even 20 years if you look at our private equity portfolio and i know a lot of people would say, hey, private equity cuts corners, they dont. They make companies more efficient, which i agree with charlie. Its the means to make profit over the longterm so look at our infrastructure, very longterm capital, adding value to vote, which makes us money. Because at the end of the day, im about making money real estate transactions if you own a property in an office building, it better be leed standard. They want better values and operate more efficiently what if the company was making less money to go back to charl charlies point, but was more socially responsible would that be acceptable to you as an Investment Opportunity would you be willing to sacrifice the companys moneymaking ability because it was doing better socially . Scott, let me turn that around and say, yes, im willing the see them cut their earnings now if it generates profit into the future far too companies are focused in on just the next 91 days and doing things that sacrifice profits three, four, five years from now i need those future profits. I dont need todays profits as much as i need future profits. Youre getting into nuances where people get hung up on. Im not for companies being just for social causes. Companies exist to make money over the longterm and theyve got to do that by providing some good to society otherwise, people arent going to buy their products or invest and give them capital. Chris, the governor gavin newsom did sign this executive order through asking you to favor these green initiatives, or these Green Investments how far do you have to shift your portfolio to make sure youre complying with this executive order . Or are you already there weve been doing things in environmental areas for over a decade actually, probably 16 years now. And i just met this morning with a representative of the Governors Department of finance to talk about how theyre going to build this up between the three Pension Plans and develop it its still at the early stages, but all three of our Pension Plans in the state have been doing clean energy investments, environmental investments for over a decade. And its a matter of building upon that. So we applaud the effort were going to work with the governor our board is already looking and started yesterday looking at a lowcarbon future. People dont realize how much Climate Change is going to impact everyones portfolio. And were trying to factor that in now and well work with the governor to find solutions into the future chris, i know well be talking about this again more in the future, as well. Hopefully with you thank you for joining us today chris . You bet, thank you. Its been a rough week for snapchat with shares falling after facebook announced a new competitive app, but Morgan Stanley says nows the time to buy. Well get the word on the street on that call, next coming up in just a few minutes, well take you inside the market zone, thats our commercialfree rundown of the yggest stories that matter most toour money as we head into the close. Stay with us were back right after this. Your but as you get older,hing. It naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. Thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. The secret is an ingredient originally discovered. In jellyfish. In Clinical Trials, prevagen has been shown to improve shortterm memory. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Welcome back to closing bell. Now it is time to get the word on the street. Nomura is initiating etsy as a buy with a 70 price target. The firm estimating a 170 billion market for the core business one of a number of bullish notes on etsy. Wedbush initiating Dominos Pizza as outperform with a 280 price target the firm views the companys Financial Model as among the most compelling in the publicly traded restaurant universe do you agree with that call . Absolutely. This is a Company Close to my heart. People think this is a bunch of restaurants. Its actually a Restaurant Supply business. They get to sell pizza dough to all of their franchisees around the world at wonderful margins they earn franchise royalty fees on revenue, not on profit. Its a very wellpositioned business thats growing. Hasnt done all that well as a stock of late. That competition from delivererers, grub hubs and all the others over the last ten years, this stock is up threefold. Its been a great business all the way back to when tom monahan started it in ann arbor, michigan its a little bumpy, but its a great business thats growing internationally. And Morgan Stanley upgrading snap to equal weight, raising its price target to 17 bucks a share to 14. The firm citing stronger top line growth. Ceo evan spiegel speaking at tech crunch disrupt earlier today. We just love what we do weapon dont do it for the share price, we do it because were really excited to build a product that we think makes a difference in peoples lives and i think that is just a huge privilege for our team and thats what inspires us. Interesting time to upgrade that stock a day after it got hit pretty good on that new facebook competing app well see where that goes from here. The streaming battle turning into an allout war. We have those details, coming up plus, Single Family home rentals are a fastgrowing part of the Real Estate Market. Well speak with the ceo of Invitation Homes, one of the leaders in the space thats up next and as we head to break, heres a quick check on bonds, the tenyear yield slipping today, inching towards that 1. 5 level. Yields on the ten year hold by nearly 20 basis points this week closing bell is going to be back right after this. Ive always been im still going for my best. Even though i live with a higher risk of stroke due to afib not caused by a heart valve problem. So if theres a better treatment than warfarin, ill go for that. Eliquis. Eliquis is proven to reduce stroke risk better than warfarin. Plus has significantly less major bleeding than warfarin. Eliquis is fdaapproved and has both. Whats next . Sharing my roots. Dont stop taking eliquis unless your doctor tells you to, as stopping increases your risk of having a stroke. Eliquis can cause serious and in rare cases fatal bleeding. Dont take eliquis if you have an artificial heart valve or abnormal bleeding. While taking eliquis, you may bruise more easily and it may take longer than usual for any bleeding to stop. Seek immediate medical care for sudden signs of bleeding, like unusual bruising. Eliquis may increase your bleeding risk if you take certain medicines. Tell your doctor about all planned medical or dental procedures. Eliquis, the number one cardiologistprescribed blood thinner. Ask your doctor if eliquis is whats next for you. Filmgate is growing really staffing a small bquickly and. Is challenging. I needed to fill a production coordinator role. I was looking for someone with specific skills. So i posted a job on linkedin. Maribel had all the skills i was looking for. And looking at her profile. I saw shared connections. That was a plus. But the most important thing. Is the ability to connect to people and she had it. And i knew. She was the one. Post a job today at linkedin. Com grow weve got about 29 minutes left to go until those closing trades are we are at or near session highs on the dow who knows what can happen with 29 minutes left to go. Lets take a look at what will be driving the action today. The headline employment rate drops to its lowest level in half a century the president projects an optimistic tone on trade negotiations with china, which resume next week and fed chairman powell says the economy is in a good place and its his job to keep it there. In an interview with fed president Loretta Mester is coming up in the next hour youll want to stay tuned right here to the closing bell in the meantime, lets go to sue herrera with a news update for us heres whats happening at this hour, everyone. Microsoft says hackers linked to the iranian government have targeted a u. S. President ial campaign as well as government officials. Media targets as well as and expatriate iranians. The company declined to identify the campaign, citing privacy concerns prosecutors say they will retry a man for allegedly turning a San Francisco barrier warehouse into a cluttered maze that killed 36 people when a fire broke out at a party in december of 2016 jurors last month could not agree on a verdict on 49yearold derick almena. Rosenstein rosensteharvey w his bid to move his Sexual Assault trial out of new york city a fivejudge Appellate Panel rejected that motion and postponement of weinsteins trial now set for january. And fit 4 life is recalling its resistance bands due to an energy hazard. The band can separate from the handle and strike people there have been ten reported incidents resulting in injuries. The bands were sold exclusively at walmart and walmart. Com you are up to date, thats the news update this hour. Courtney, ill send it back downtown to you. Thank you very much, sue. Lets send it over now to mike santoli. He has his second dashboard. A quiet but nice rally leads to an idea that maybe Tranquility Base is what this market is setting up for take a look at the oneyear chart of the s p 500, to get an of where this rally takes the index. Up to about 28 29. 45 on the s p 500. Its got some significance to it in that general zone, that has had a little bit of a friction point for previous rallies not to say its going to stop in its tracks, but kind of interesting that the week would have brought us back to what we call a frontier level of the market and i want to take a look at the software sector. It is now outperforming again. This is the software etf, the igv. You can see it on a yeartodate basis. Up 2 almost and so that shows that some leadership in tech is reasse reasserting i. T. Right now, possibly a net positive for the overall take michael, thank you pmpblt. 30year Mortgage Rates down from this time last year, this comes as the demand for singlefamily home rentals is soaring. The group making up 5 of the total Single Family Housing Starts last year one group participating is Invitation Homes, with a stock higher by nearly 50 this year joining us with more now is the Invitation Homes ceo, dallas tanner nice to see you. Thank you for having me i guess you have a good story to tell your investors today business is good, the fundamentals for housing are really strong, especially in our markets, which are primarily coastal and the southeast part of the country driving it, low rates, the consumers hanging in. Whats the big deal . I think its a combination of a few things, really first, theres a lack of supply generally speaking were capturing some of that demand naturally second, weve got a number of people that want flexibility and choice if you take a step back, a third of the country leases something today, in one, way, shape, or form thats 47 million households we represent about a third of that 47 million. Theres roughly 16 million homes today that are for lease in the United States. So your tenants, are they largely tenants that had always been renters about a third of our customers are out of necessity, meaning they need the space, but quite frankly cant afford a home in todays environment. About a third are transitional, and about a third of our customers are out of choice, preferential meaning they can afford to buy, but theyre choosing to lease. Choosing to lease even though they can afford to actually buy a house. What does that tell you about what the consumer mr. And mrs. America are thinking about where we are i think theres a couple of ghoings going on a lot of people want flexibility of choice and down payment lite. We offer that opportunity without compromising location, great schools, transportation corridors that people want i think the second thing, too, is youve got 65 Million People between the ages of 20 and 35 coming our way our average customer today is 39, has a combined Household Income of about 100,000 its not somebody whos necessarily doing this out of necessity or need, its really a matter of choice as you look at the Housing Market and different plays from there in, from an investment standpoint, what do you like we think new Home Construction is still well below trend line were still roughly 1. 2 to 1. 3 starts a year. The second is flexibility. People, 25, 30 years ago, probably thought they were going to live in the same city for the rest of their lives. Now a lot of people at least want the option, the flexibility to move. So renting that home instead of buying it gives them a lot more flexibility. And lastly, frankly, homes have not been that great an investment over the last 15 years. 20 years ago, people of my generation would have said, owning a home is the best investment you can make. They havent been that great investments recently thank you for being here. Enjoy the bell with your gang over there whos gathered around the tv watching you. Thanks for having us. Well see how they thought you did when you go over and visit with them. Thats dallas tanner, the ceo of Invitation Homes we have new details on the president ial campaign targeted by hackers linked to the iranian government our eamon javers with those details right now. Reporter this is new reporting coming in from reuters. Theyre reporting that a Hacking Group that appears to be linked with the iranian government attempted to break into president Donald Trumps reelection campaign, but the reporting is that that effort did not succeed. Reuters citing sources familiar with the operation this comes after microsoft corp. Said earlier today that an unnamed president ial campaign was targeted by hackers, which the software between linked with iran now the reporting is that that was the president s reelection campaign, targeted by hackers who appear to be linked with iran well ask the white house for more comment on that as soon as we get it. But scott, this underscores the danger for the u. S. Election system going into 2020 that russian interference in 2016 has certainly caught the notice of Intelligence Services around the world that are hostile to the United States there are a number of different Intelligence Services that could try to play in 2020, iran being one of them, and now were seeing this attempted hack here of the Trump Campaign according to reuters, scott. Eamon, we appreciate that thats eamon javers on the north lawn of the white house for us we have about 25 minutes to go, before we close the week on wall street were pretty much at the highs of the day right now dow right now up 346 thats a gain of 1. 3 on that jobs report. S p up more than 1 . So is the nasdaq russell lagging a bit, but still in the green up next, we have your last chance trade plus, were sitting down exclusively with cleveland fed president Loretta Mester shell weigh in on todays job number and much more stick with closing bell. Well be right back. And you should be mad at simple things that are unnecessarily complicated. But youre not mad, because youre trading with e trade, which isnt complicated. Their app makes trading quick and simple so you can strike when the time is right. Dont get mad, get e trade and start trading today. And now for their service to the community, we present limu emu doug with this key to the city. [ applause ] its an honor to tell you that Liberty Mutual customizes your Car Insurance so you only pay for what you need. And now we need to get back to work. [ applause and band playing ] only pay for what you need. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Were back on the closing bell, a little less than 20 minutes to go on this friday stocks are pretty much highs of the day led by the financials, then technology, and utilities the tenyear yield is at its lowest level of the week youve got some yield plays there, but financials and techs are bigtime in the green. Even energy putting in some green today. As scott mentioned, we have about 18 minutes left to go. 18 minutes to make a move into the weekend. Charlie, what is your lastchance trade . So the market is very focused on shortterm issues were finding the best opportunities are company with a great longterm outlook, but some shortterm problem. A name that fits that is borg warner everybodys nervous about volkswagens production, General Motors production, but longer term, there are going to be more cars, more hybrid vehicles and longer term, there are going to be more cars on the road and borg warner is going to be supplying the power train for those cars yes, there are some shortterm headwinds, but longer term, borgwarner have were well positioned gms got the strike, but we think thats going to get solved gm is in a very good position. Borgwarner has a lot of product on kbm vehicgm vehicles. So undeterred by the underperformance of the stock . And thats by a number of different metrics, too its not just three months, its five months, a year. You get my drift absolutely. This is a tough time to be an investor in any kind of value stock. This is a quintessential value stock, trading at eight times earnings, because of cyclicality. I thought we were at a time where value had been outperforming . An after three years, were still trailing even yeartodate, the russell 1,000 value index is still under the 1,000 growth we had a better month, but we still have a lot of catching up to do. I hear you on that. This is the last commercial well take before the close. Well bring you uninterrupted coverage of the final minutes of trade and bring you up to speed on everything an investor needs to know. Well take you iide nsthe market zone when closing bell returns. Servicenow put our this changes everything. Youre right sir. Everything. No not everything, i mean youre still blatantly sucking up to me gary. Brilliantly observed, sir. Always three steps ahead. Six steps ahead. Sixteen. So many steps. You done . A million steps ahead. Servicenow. Works for you. You should be mad at leaf blowers. [beep] you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. And you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. But youre not mad, because you have e trade which isnt complicated. Their tools make trading quicker and simpler. So you can take on the markets with confidence. Dont get mad. Get e trade and start trading today. A bit more than ten minutes to go in the trading day and now we are in the closing bell market zone, commercialfree coverage for all of the action going into the close well tell you everything an investor needs to know in these final minutes and break down the Market Action after the closing bell rings youll see some of the big movers in the dow, the s p 500 and the nasdaq constantly changing and updating on the right side of your screen. And cnbcs senior markets commentator, mike santoli, is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day and today, weve got charlie from air yall investments hes here as well to help us maneuver through these final minutes. Apple increasing production of its iphone 11 models by 10 or roughly 8 Million Units its a big deal. And its hard to believe this stock is almost back to its high its been somewhat quiet, even though its had a great run. It has had a great run. Investors a little bit wrongfooted on the idea that the iphone could be a success. The question is, is it going to get back to those highs, just a few dollars up from here at 2. 32 a share. As it runs out of a little bit of gas thats a shortterm story. Longer term story is, i think theres a lot of comfort just with the balance of the business at apple right now charlie, we talked about this a little bit before. Do you think that theres more room to run here for apple that youd be maybe a longterm investor, regardless of what happens with the demand for the iphone 11 . With a Great Company like this, sentiment moves around a lot. Youve got to buy when the company is bad right now, sentiment is pretty good, so i would wait a little bit. But its a Wonderful Company longterm. Its hard to trade apple. People have learned the hard way, trying to trade around and pick the right entry point as jim cramer says, own apple, dont trade it absolutely, far enough. Zm and its leading the dow here today. Shares of hp inc. Are falling to levels not seen since february of 2017, after the Company Announced it will cut up to 16 of its workforce josh, what do you think . Is this the beginning of more to come as they go through changes under a new ceo . So, courtney, you have a new ceo coming in. Enriq Enrique Lores is a veteran of the company. He is quickly taking some really bold action in a couple of ways. One, he is cutting costs he is going to eliminate up to 9,000 jobs as you noted, thats about 16 of his workforce says its going to help save the company about 1 billion by the end of fiscal 2022 but hes also making these really fundamental changes to his printing business, and remember, printing supplies, ink and attorney, thats hps bread and butter, thats its profit center, but its been facing these real challenges. Traditionally, hp would sell you a printer at a loss and make money on the ink the problem is, customers were going to different vendors for that ink so new game plan now ill keep selling you those cheaper printers, but they only work with hp ink hes going to try to lock in those customers or buy more expensive printers and choose whatever ink you want. That stock is getting shelled today, as you mentioned. I checked in with evercorps and they say people are worried. It highlights the magnitude about the uncertainty about this profit center. And he says, its a bold action, but we dont know whether it works. Will customers really gravitate toward this new Business Strategy back to you guys josh lipton, thank you. The battle over streaming dominance turning into a fullblown war as disney now bans advertising from netflix across its Entertainment Networks Julia Boorstin joining us with those details. Julia . Thats right. Disney has banned netflix ads from abc as well as its entertainment channel, such as freeform that ahead of the disney plus launch, november 12th. Netflix spent an estimated 100 million on u. S. T ads last year with an estimated fifth of that going to disneyowned sne ed ne. Media Companies Often turn down their rivals ads, unless they work outsome kind of reciproca advertising relationship and of course, thats not possible with netflix, because netflix does not have advertising. We reached out to netflix. There was no comment, but guys, its really notable here that we have these onetime frenemies now going directly headtohead. Back over to you this war is far from over julia, thank you charlie, i know in the past, youve been a fan of cbs what do you think of netflix, disney, or is cbs your play in this space there were a lot of rumors that disney was going to buy netflix at one point never bet against Reed Hastings. Disney, obviously, very well positioned here. But the two of them, i think, in the end, have a lot of synergies between them i think theyll get over this hump it is becoming a little a little more frenemy than friend but the broader takeaway that theres room in this world for everybody makes sense. But obviously, everybody wants to kind of go back to what they have thats proprietary, and not necessarily give too much help to the other side. Seems to make sense they would not want to support one another. We have a quick news alert on paypal. Deirdre bosa has the details for us in San Francisco. What do you know this is a major blow to Facebooks Libra efforts paypal is backing out of the Cryptocurrency Association in a statement, paypal says that it has made the decision to forego further participation in the Libra Association at this time, and continue to focus on advancing our mission and business priority. The statement goes on to say that paypal remains support i have of libras aspirations. But paypal is one of more than two dozen members of the Libra Association. David marcus, the facebook executive heading up the efforts was formally a paypal executive. Just more context, earlier this week, the wall street journal reported that other members such as visa and mastercard were themselves reconsidering their involvement. The founding members of the Libra Association are set to meet october 14th in geneva, switzerland. So well see what happens between then well see if paypal pulling out affects anybody else in that group. We have about five and a half minutes to go. We end this week after what has been such a wild run if youre just joining us, you might notice your screen looks a little different than what youve seen before during closing bell. Weve launched the market zone, where well bring you uninterrupted commercial coverage into and after the closing bell. On the right side of your screen are the biggest winners and losers of the day. And the bottom of your screen, you can see a preview of the next few stories that were covering it will help you guide you through the close. Jpmorgan out with a new note on general electric. Seema mody has those details seema . Reporter thats right, scott. Widely followed jpmorgan analyst jordan tusa saying it offers less growth and less value support than consensus assumes in a tth 92page report, tusa argues that he sees it closer to 30 billion, saying its worst positioned among its peers the companys aviation arm specializes in building aircraft engines and is widely considered a source of strength the ceo saying its in a competitive position, but this Analyst Report being circulated among wall street and the stock is down 1. 6 on a day where the broader stock market, scott, is up a lot of people talking about not that the 5 price is new, but when youjarring. And this gets at one of the fallback arguments against ge. That somehow these were good assets, obscured, you know, lots of trailing slooinlt liabili ii other noise. Less than five minutes to go before the close mike has more on the market internals today as were trying to push a 400point game hein h. If you look at the equalweighted s p 500 the rsp etf. Look at the lagging behavior actually on a oneday basis its lagging. And as you see there, also on a weektogats pb today th weektodate basis the average stock not doing so well if you want to look at the breakdown of up and down volume, its positive. Its about 70 to 30 up to down volume but thats not necessarily something where you would say, this is an overwhelming buying frenzy that essentially means its a huge breadth. This has a little bit of a shave of investors who got caught not owning enough stop and panicking back in. Overall, volumes lame. Youre right, its not necessarily people rushing in and buying loads of individual names. You have tech leading the way. Apple seeing some really nice gains. Its apple, its microsoft, a lot of the bigger names. In fact, a lot of the winners for the year are at the top of the s p 500. This is buying the old leaders today. Makes sense here weve got just over two minutes to go. We are in the market zone. Lets send it over to Rick Santelli hell give us a nice check on bonds before we head to the weekend. Ill tell you what,. What a wild week. Look at the intraday of twoyear note yields. If you open it up to one week, we are down 24 basis points on the week if you look at a monthtodate charge of tenyear note yields, you can see, maybe stocks enjoyed todays employment report, but the treasury market certainly didnt seem to pay attention. Its going in a different direction. Bert bertha, screaming nasdaq into the close. And nasdaq is the only major index that will close higher for the week, in large part because of apples gain, up 3. 7 for the week, which has pulled up tech and chips in particular on pace to snap a twoweek losing streak when you look at the biggest losers for the week, tesla among them with disappointing auto numbers this week, but also, youre seeing a lot of the airlines this week are lower as well biomarine bucking the trend from biotech, but Piper Jaffrey announced that biotech funds have seen withdrawals for seven straight weeks, bob, and a lot of those are in the mid and smallcap area over to you. 29 of 30 down stocks up this afternoon, bertha. Quite a nice run 31 advancing to declining stocks the jobs report, just Strong Enough to allay fears about possible recession, but not Strong Enough to completely dispel the idea. Take a look here we had merck moving up nicely, jpmorgan, fintech, regular tech and health care all leading the charge the s p 500 down only 0. 4 what a wild ride here. 1,200 points to the downside in the first three days, and then on the dow, essentially a 900point rally in the final two days really an extraordinary range here the vix closing at 17. Dow up 368 points. Welcome to the closing bell. Mike santoli is cnbcs senior markets commentator and youre in the market zone you can see the days Market Action on the right side of your screen with the stories still coming up on the tabs at the bottom of your screen. Dow today, a big day. Best day for the dow and the s p, in fact, since midaugust dow is up nearly 370 right there. Its going to go out with a gain of it looks like just shy of 73 . S p at the exact percentage margin, up 41 points nasdaq right along with it a nice broadbased day all three of the major averages having quite the session and quite a reversal from what we saw just midweek. Joining us to talk about the mixture day is head of u. S. Equity and quantity strategy at bank of America Merrill lynch. And charlie is the vice chairman and head of Investment Group at aerial investments mike, here we go weapon finally settled out and got the numbers. Relief rally definitely relief it shows you in the early part of the week, this story line that we were getting everweaker economic numbers and that the weakness was not contained, i think it kind of got ahead of itself there was a pretty good shake out over the course of two days. The market craved reassurance that the labor market was going to be okay, but treasury yields really didnt budge today. You priced in a rate cut for october. Normally, the stock market has required longer term rates to go up for the stock market to rally. Guess what, the cost of a rate cut in october was not really that severe in terms of economic pain just yet. Unbelievable, how the narrative over the last day or so, literally yesterday morning, were sitting there going to say, its the worst week for the market of the year, and you have this big reversal. And charlie, now were saying its the best day for the dow and s p since midaugust oh, my, how things changed the numbers i dont think were as bad as they portrayed. The ism Service Number was actually above 50. Anything above 50 was growth the market started to rally at 10 00 yesterday the first headlines were weak, below estimates. But the jobs number is still showing growth we had revisions, up more than 40,000 i think the overall picture is frankly better than okay and it seems like you think, look, this volatility, you can kind of expect it. Look at what were looking at in all of these different factors is that how you still sit going into the weekend i think so. The first ten days of october are a really interesting time for investors. Three things are happening its quarter end, people are positioning for the end of october, the tax the capital gains. And were also positioning for year end so the first ten days of october, you make the most money historically by selling the most overweighted stocks in mutual funds and buying the most overweighted stocks. Thats exactly what weve seen so far this week its kind of interesting youve made at least 100 basis points on that trade and i think that thats likely to continue. 33 its just repositioning do you want to rethink your note from earlier in the week when you suggested that the gains were in . For the s p qu. Yeah im still 2900. I think were starting to see these rumblings of liquidity shocks we had the overnight funding rate spike up to 5 . And the week before we had some massive style reversal from momentum to value and it snapped back theres weird stuff going on to use some technical terms but i think these are tells, like we saw in 2008, where you had a few little credit hiccups and liquidity concerns and then it was game over but you said theres weird stuff going on so lets just simplify it. The economy is okay. Its not going off a cliff and the fed is cutting rates why fight that no, i agree this is why im not bearish. I think stick with stocks. They offer great dividend yield relative to fixed income the fed will be superaccommodative dont short the market i just dont necessarily think that right now what were seeing underneath the surface is necessarily healthy. Thats what i worry about. Again, i think theres lots of great opportunities within the s p 500. 60 of companies in the s p 500 pay a dividend yield higher than the tenyear ting there are some odd rumblings of potential Liquidity Risk that we need to pay attention. Charlie, you feel better than that than worrying about the weird factors. But what are the opportunities you see . You gave us borgwarner earlier as a last chance trade you have to buy what others are selling. And i think value stocks are still out of favor these cyclical names, these financials if i told you kkr, you would say, its a wonderful business its trading at 12 times earnings so thats, to me, a very attractive stock so i think you have to avoid the momentum tech names and buy some names that have some cyclicality, because people are still worried about the economy. I was interested today to see the big banks rallying with yields doing nothing if you look at jpmorgan, in the last hour or two, its up 1 on nothing. It seems like this, not sneezing at the rally, but it seems like there was an upside air pocket banks are the most hated part of an s p 500. Best group in september thats exactly what were seeing i think you want to stick with the banks. I think theyre the new highquality dividend yield. The group adding 2 just today. That sort of sneaky move right there at the end its been a wild week for the market lets get back to bob pisani for a look at the biggest movers wrapping it up 1,200 point move in the dow first three days down and another 900 point move on the upside and once again, we saw this strange amalgam of strength and defensive sectors. What is that all about same situation, you have Health Care Stocks like johnson johnson, merck moving up, United Health and then fintech with visa a pretty good week overall for f fintech here the dow laggards remain essentially cyclicals. 3m and Caterpillar Oil was down a lot of 52week lows in the oil sectors and goldman sachs, most of the banks not doing too much. Quite a wild week. Guys, back to you. And as we look to next week, trade talks. Anybody want to be negative going into that . I dont think theres a play, to be honest, i dont think theres a definable trade that you would have High Conviction going into these talks necessaril necessarily. But do you want to bet against good noises, probably not . The president probably has his back against the wall a little bit with the impeachment talk he would like some good news to help him on that front the economy, a little dicey. I agree, but i dont see it as a gamable situation very easily, necessarily. I could make the other side of that, too. He wants to be seen as being tough. But dont you think that if we got a deal, wed get a massive move up . No doubt about that and the bad headlines, i dont think, bring us that much bad news i think to decide theres going to be a catalyst in that form at any defined moment in time is hard if you get a positive development, does that put the fed i wonder what that does to the fed and the outlook for the fed . The fed could be forced to shift focus or do nothing, no cuts, yeah i think the sector you want to own into the trade talks is Consumer Discretionary and i know this is a weird call, because the tariffs on goods in december are on consumer goods i dont think theres a chance those go through, because those are hurting the consumer ahead of an election year, that would be a disaster for Trumps Campaign so i think consumer stocks are basically pricing in a 50 chance that those tariffs are going to go through and i dont think they will. I think thats a sector you want to own heading into the fourth quarter. Thats a good last thought. Its nice to see you again thank you. A good weekend to you both is nexup next, our exclusive interview with the cleveland fed president , Loretta Mester. Hes standing in the wings right now and will join us live at post 9 to react to todays jobs reports and will weigh in on the number of job cuts weekend see keep it right here the closing bell is back in st0 cos. St0 cos. Wlp bl make fitness routine with pure protein. High protein. Low sugar. Tastes great high protein. Low sugar. So good high protein. Low sugar. Mmmm, birthday cake pure protein. Find our coupons in sundays paper. Pure protein. Through the at t network, edgetoedge intelligence gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business. From using feedback to innovate. To introducing products faster. To managing website inventory. And network bandwidth. Giving you a nice big edge over your competition. Thats the power of edgetoedge intelligence. You mighyour joints. Ng for your heart. Or your digestion. So why wouldnt you take something for the most important part of you. Your brain. With an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in Clinical Trials to improve shortterm memory. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Well, weve heard from a number of fed officials as investors await the next Federal Reserve meeting in late october. Eric rosengren, who voted against cutting Interest Rates last meeting sat down with our own Steve Liesman earlier to clarify his position earlier today on halftime. I still have an open mind we still have more data between now and when the meeting actually occurs. Im going to be quite attentive to whats happening with anything that indicates that the consumer is changing their view. I think theres still a little bit more data between the meeting. I dont think i should prejudge it at this point weve already had two easings. Easings dont have an impact immediately. And just last week on this very show, we heard from st. Louis fed chairman, james bulllard, explaining why he believes central bank should cut rates again this year. The inflation is actually below target by a preferred measure, and Inflation Expectations seem well contained at this point. So i think we have room to maneuver here. I think we can take out the insurance and like i said, if we dont need it, thats okay well take it back in 2020 joining us now is another member of the Federal Reserve, here to give her take, cleveland fed president Loretta Mester nice to see you. Thanks so much for being here. Youre going to break the tie. Bullard one side, rosengren on another. Is this an economy that needs more accommodation with an Unemployment Rate that hit a 50year low today. The economy is doing pretty well overall that employment report was a pretty good report Unemployment Rate is at a 50year low. The job growth is pretty consistent with trend job growth and coming into this year, we knew that things were going to be slowing down, because we were above trend last year. Now, its, are we slowing more than that or not and the head winds were getting on the trade side of things, on export growth, the weak growth abroad, of course, feeds into our export numbers rosengren was like, maybe we should see it takes a while for this all to filter into the economy. If you had to say, are you in favor of another rate cut . I wont say today i think its important that we really look at the incoming economic information that were going to get as we work up to the end of the month meeting and so i think this is a particularly important environment where you are very attuned to whats the incoming economic and Financial Information telling you . What are your business contacts telling you about what theyre actually doing because of some of the uncertainty out there, and use all of that information as you walk into that fmoc meeting, so you can bring that to the table so lets take the time that we have to reserve whats going on in the economy and erics right, the two rate cutses have not fed through into the economy yet. Zblf i spoke to the ceo of best buy, and she said were concerned, but we havent actually seen a change in Consumer Behavior yet. What are you seeing from the consumer and are you worried it could change the consumer side is 70 of gdp. That Consumer Spending number is important and so what im looking for is are the weaknesses that were seeing in trade and in maneuver going to spill over to the consumer so far, we have not seen that and our business contacts are telling us that the consumer side is holding up yeah, youre right, the data, the monthly data, there are some tweaks, but its really whats going to happen Going Forward. You could think of a scenario where theres spillovers from the manufacturing weakness, the uncertainty over trade policy, that that kind of dashes the consumer but if you think about the fundamentals, wages and Income Growth have been holding up very well, the fundamentals underlying Consumer Spending look still look good, and our contacts, our board of directors bringing information about what theyre seeing on that side still say that things are holding up on the consumer side. It seems were out of time when theres many different ways you characterize the inflation situation. Marketbased, expectations have recently gone to multiyear lows and the medium cpi, or the it looks like the trends for the core are basically holding near 2 how does that filter sboop the next rate cut decision or Rate Decision so its incredibly important that, you know, we get to our 2 goal, right, and that we maintain it and have it sustainably around2 my view of it is that, you know, were reasonably near 2 Inflation Expectations, i think, are at the moment well anchored. I think the market base measures are a little hard to read right now, because we know that theyre term premium and the story measure have said moving a little bit sideways i think my view is that inflation is going to gradually move up to 2 . Im not going to overreact if we get it above 2 a bit. Im not going to overreact if we get it under and its really an issue of maybe we need to keep the funds rate we have, you know, more than otherwise because inflation have been running under, but not something that i would actively just change the path of the funds rate because weve been running a little bit below two is the economy softer because of the trade war or because your policy is too tight. Thats the larry kudlow view and he said it again today i think that you can easily look at growth abroad, so Global Growth is slowing, all right trade policy has created uncertainty, and the tariffs have an impact, as well. I think those factors really account for some of the slowdown weve seen abroad and in the Manufacturing Sector in the u. S. And also the export side of the u. S. Economy now, when were thinking about Monetary Policy, were also looking forward, when were looking at our dual mandate goals and were going to calibrate policy to achieve those dual mandate goals but at the moment, our policy is accommodative and well assess the situation Going Forward and recalibrate our policy, if necessary, to make sure that we achieve and maintain those goals. Would it bother you to take the fire from the president the way that the Federal Reserve has . Hes called you all clueless he has, he used that word. You know, ive worked at the Federal Reserve for my career. I feel privileged to be part of the Federal Reserve. I feel its a very honorable institution. And when we go into that room and do our policy decisions, we are really focused on the dual mandate goal, the best analysis, the best information we have on the economy comes to that table. We bring it in from all parts of the country and we do the best we can and we try to hold ourselves accountable for meeting those goals. Theres always challenges out there and you have to look through it and stick to the knitting and do your job as you talk about that dual mandate, weve touched on inflation, we had a jobs report today. Many look at it as a goldilocks report you can see some good, maybe some not so good how do you read into that and how does it play into a potential fed decision i thought it was a pretty solid report we expected to see some slowing in job growth as growth overall, output growth slowed this year we are still above the estimates of what would be needed to keep the Unemployment Rate constant so to my mind, that was a pretty good report. Im attuned to the fact that there was a little bit of slowing in wage growth in that report, but again, i think we have to look overall and say that wage growth is stigoing to sustain Consumer Spend welcoing the focus will be, can we maintain that growth and can consumers continue to spend . Given the flow of data weve gotten in the last couple of months, the two easing moves the fed has made since the summer, do they still qualify as insurance cuts, or are you fighting against a worst slowdown i think the decision the decision Going Forward is, we came expecting growth to be slowing toward trend this year there are these head winds out there, there are risks out there, Global Economy is slowing down, manufacturing economy is slowing down here. There are Downside Risks on that forecast and its always possible you could have a weaker growth than anticipated. And thats what the assessment is going to be Going Forward and im going to be attuned to whether we have a more sustained labor market slowdown or consumer slowdown. And that would be, to me, the things that im focusing on. You brought up risk and Eric Rosengren points to these coworkering companies, not calling out wework by name, but as a potential risk, looking at commercial real estate, wework obviously pulling its ipo, is this a big risk for you or something more in the commercial Real Estate Market youre watching i would say that when youre in a low Interest Rate environment, you do have to be attuned to some Financial Stability issues that low Interest Rates for a long time can engender we have seen evaluated commercial real estate pricing we have seen evaluates levels of nonfinancial company debt, so you have to be watching those as we go through this cycle right now, those risks are moderate you said yesterday, i believe, at brookings that you worry about what low rates can mean for financial imbalances, asset bubbles, things like that. Does that shape the way you view what the next move by the fed could be, at least as your vote would go you worry about rates where they already are . And if you take them lower, what the ramifications could potentially be at this point, i dont see that as being the predominant decisionmaking point in that. Im really focused right now on whats theout look for the economy and the risks around that outlook and really gearing our policy to that but i do think that we have to be cognizant of the fact that we should be engendering some risks where we do whats good for the economy in the shorter run and having a little bit problematic economy in the median run. Do you think the stresses that weve observed in the overnight funding market in recent weeks, that now seem to have calmed down, do the current policies the fed has enacted seem like theyve taken care of that or there something on a more sustained basis well be looking at this as we go forward, as the chair said, were constantly looking to make sure that were providing enough liquidity so our funds rate in the target fed funds rate in the target so this is an ongoing process that we always do when were trying to do, you know, implement our policy decisions on that note, you have some suggesting like Jeffrey Gundlach who i interviewed recently, who said, that the fed will embark soon on qelite what he calls qelite the Balance Sheet will start going the other direction now. What were talking about now has nothing to do with qe or asset purchases. This is about supplying reserves so that the funds rate and the Financial Markets and the money markets can actually work. This is nothing about qe is there a chance that the fed may do that, go down that path these are wellrespected investor whos closely followed. What i would separate out, Monetary Policy decisions from liquidity decisions and reserve supply decisions, those are two separate things. What the question was about, what was happening in the reserve market and the fed funds market, thats about reserves and making sure that we have enough liquidity in the market so that you know, a decision about what tool you use to hit your monetary to go into your Monetary Policy, right now, Interest Rates are our main tool, weve said okay, Loretta Mester, cleveland fed president , thank you for joining us here today on the closing bell thanks very much. Coming up next, disney ceo bob iger pulling no punches against netflix by banning its ads on most of disneys tv platforms. Find out how that could impact the increasingly competitive streaming space later on the closing bell. Lets send it over to mike santoli for his third dashboard of the day hey, mike courtney, take the money and run. What a lot more americans are doing as they react to a very tight labor market heres an alternative measure of the strength of the labor market here, which is the percentage of prime age americans who are in the workforce. Not in the workforce, but have jobs its about 80. 1 right now, as of this mornings number so right there and what that does is take you exactly back to 07, which was the peak of the prior cycle, right before the last downturn and the last recession this was a major that really was very stubborn in coming back this is people ages 25 to 54 it was an idea that there was this kind of lost generation people permanently discouraged out of the workforce obviously, long enough the expansion goes, the more that gets fixed and people get back in very good news i would take a look at this other thing, which is, this is one reason that consumer measures of sentiment have held up better than business sentiment. This is from bank of america and Merrill Lynch a way of describing how consumers feel relative to businesses, Consumer Confidence as a ratio with the ism manufacturing. Obviously, the latter is more volatile you see these peaks. Were at this level. Thats the highest weve gotten since pretty much the early 2000s. And it seems like a late cycle crater it doesnt mean that the cycle is over, but it does tell you that youre getting a little bit far along in things. Heres one thats interesting to me that was in 1998, late in the 90s expansion, but not the end of the 90s expansion and roughly around the same area so take a look at this relationship over time, guys we will still ahead, oil snapping an eightday losing streak. Find out if crude is ready for a comeback, straight ahead plants captured it too . If these industrial plants had technology that captured carbon like trees we could help lower emissions. Carbon capture is Important Technology and experts agree. Thats why were working on ways to improve it. So plants. Can be a little more. Like plants. Best day for that since midaugust we close it out today at 26,573. Just yesterday, we were talking about, it could be the worst week of the year for the stock market and oh, how things change its time now for a cnbc news update with sue herrera. Hello, scott. Hello, everyone. Heres whats happening at this hour teen activist greta tuneberg taking part in a climate strike. She joined others at a rally in iowa citi. She pressed the crowd to urge leaders to understand the Science Behind Climate Change. As we all know, the u. N. Climate action summit was a failure and that was unfortunately what we had expected to stand behindand speak the silence is still too uncomfortable for them and that needs to change. A man paralyzed from the shoulders down was able to walk with the help of a fourlimb robotic system that he can direct and control signals from his brain. He was able to walk with an exoskeleton attached to the ceiling. An nypd officer killed by friendly fire during a struggle with an armed man was honored today as a hero at his funeral hundreds and some say thousands gathered to pay tribute to 33yearold Brian Mulkeen he was promoted posthumously to detective. You are up to date thats the news update this hour courtney, ill send it back downtown to you. Thank you very much, sue. Well, energy, the worst performer this week, down almost 4 , despite crude oil rising today, for the first time in nine sessions. Its the only sector with a negative yeartodate performan performance. For more, lets bring in rbc global head of commodity strategy it seems like were so big away from that big event that happened in saudi arabia with the attack and here, its like, its over was that a signal that this could happen again or should we be relieved . How do we read the action thats happened since then . I think the market is very complacent i think the fact that saudi arabia was so quick to restore the production this was a massive outage. 5. 7 Million Barrels taken offline by this extraordinary attack involving Cruise Missiles and drones and yet saudi brought it all back so much quicker than the market anticipated and now a lot of people are saying, this is probably the peak, and any other outage will be similar transitory. I think were probably looking at more disruption i dont think the iranians have shown any indication that theyre going to back off, because theyre really seeking sanctions relief but for now, the market is back focusing on concerns about demand growth slowdown and about a recession. That is front and center weve had all summer the trade war, kind of battling it out with the shooting war in the middle east. And were back to the trade war and economic concerns being at the forefront for investors. I was going to ask you, what carries more weight . Global growth concerns or geopolitical upset and it seems like the market just voted the market just voted the market is essentially saying, for now, we are going to be concerned about particularly what happens in china. China is the largest importer of crude oil. Its not surprising that crude oil reacts very negatively to trade war concerns i think whats interesting is five years ago, we had isis overrun fallujah and ramadi in iraq far away from the production zones, oil was above 100. It also tells a story about the American Energy story. Because now we have this resource here. And i think for a lot of people, they say, it doesnt matter anymore what happens in saudi arabia and i think thats a hard position for the saudi, because on the one hand, they want to say, look how resilient we are, but they also want to say to the rest of the world, this is something we should all be concerned about. And a lot of people say, we can absorb an attack like this is the market anticipating market weakness . Is there any evidence . Parttime are looking at things that concern them like auto sales in china. They are really concerned about the Manufacturing Sector in china. We will have to see where we end up in terms of demand growth numbers. People are taking them down. But i think right now, were in a situation where sentiment is really, really driving this market right now so are the days of 100 a barrel oil over, or just given where the supply is here and Global Growth worries . I think we wrote this piece over the summer called broken barometer, essentially saying that oil is now a lagging indicator of unrest in the middle east. The question is, is 80 the new 100 in terms of the Political Risk ceiling i think we have to wait and see. I think the attacks weve seen have been unprecedented from the middle of may. Weve had, you know, six tankers attacked weve had literally a Cruise Missile sent into one of the most Important Energy facilities in the world and the market is like, two weeks later, not a big deal. The question is, if we have more attacks, does that change the psychological of this market we have to wait and see. Good having you thank you. Up next, disneys bob iger, netflixs Reed Hastings in a streaming war faceoff well discuss the potential fallout, straight ahead. I cantwhat . Ve it. That our new house is haunted by casper the friendly ghost . Hey jill hey kurt movies . Ill get snacks no, i cant believe how easy it was to save hundreds of dollars on our Car Insurance with geico. I got snacks ohhh, i got popcorn, i got caramel corn, i got kettle corn. Am i chewing too loud . Believe it geico could save you fifteen percent or more on Car Insurance. Thats it. Im calling kohler about their walkin bath. Nah. Not gonna happen. My name is ken. How may i help you . Hi, im calling about kohlers walkin bath. Excellent happy to help. Huh . Hold one moment please. [ finger snaps ] hmm. The kohler walkin bath features an extrawide opening and a low stepin at three inches, which is 25 to 60 lowr than some leading competitors. The bath fills and drains quickly, while the heated seat soothes your back, neck and shoulders. Kohler is an expert in bathing, so you can count on a deep soaking experience. Are you seeing this . The kohler walkin bath comes with fully adjustable hydrotherapy jets and our exclusive bubblemassag. Everything is installed in as little as a day by a kohlercertified installe. And its made by kohler americas leading plumbing brand. We need this bath. Yes. Yes you do. A kohler walkin bath provides independence with peace of mind. Call. And ask about saving 1000 on a walkin bath, or visit kohlerwalkinbath. Com for more info. Disney will not accept anymore ads from netflix across its Entertainment Networks as the competition between streamers continues to grow more fierce, with disney launching its own disney plus service in the u. S. In just one month joining us to discuss is matt britton, the ceo of susie, an Intelligence Consumer company. Thanks for being here. Thanks for having me. Are you surprised by this move the consolidation is really crazy right now. The tv and the computer are truly about to become one. The tv is about to become a giant ipad hanging on your wall. You see kids walk into best buy and try to swipe a television. It shows you where were headed. And it will be interesting to see how all of these players coexist together and how they become enemies what do the streamers do to fight back its not like netflix has ads. It could hurt netflix in some ways like the oscar awards where they cant run ads, but besides that, it doesnt really hurt them theres plenty of other places for them to be able to capture customers and get peoples attention. Theres one rule in eve investing, dont bet against Reed Hastings. I think netflix has its challenges ahead of it the thing that netflix has going for it is it has great content, but just has that through writing checks and they have thrive iing directtoconsumer base, but theres nothing to say that that base wont churn over time apple doesnt have that content when its going to launch it only has a handful of original programming apple has a direct direct some of directtoconsumer base. And the appletv in the home. One largely missed element of this is the television itself. If i were a Large Company like netflix or even apple, i would buy a company that makes tv consoles and give them to highincome consumers for free because hardware is the last mile for content we see that with the iphone. And i think whoever controls that last mile of distribution is going to win. Im surprised that a defunct or about to go out of Business Company that makes tv consoles hasnt been approached by one of these tv companies thats part of the story with roku thats a piece of hardware and has been integrated into some televisions this idea that its going to be the vehicle through which you can bundle everything. But i think you kind of need the whole stack, so to speak you dont just need an app thats on a traditional tv, which most consumers dont even know how to locate you need the consumer base, you need that ecosystem. When you look at a company like amazon, they have amazon prime, thats a tremendous ecosystem. So they have deep pockets and for consumers you get Free Shipping on your amazon products and pay for the subscription, whereas with netflix, you just get the content itself thats really hard for them to compete. They were first to market, but as these competitors come in, its going to be really hard for them to hold their ground. How nasty does this thing get . The evolution is you quit the competitors board, now you ban the ads, whats next i think that its going to be a brutal fight and i think that theres going to be a lot of fragmentation at the beginning and a lot of consolidation two to three years from now and i think that amazon and apple, no surprise, probably microsoft, they have that direct some of it consumer base, they have the xbox is a streaming platform gaming is becoming huge in the living room. Those are companies that will merge over time. Disney will be more of a horizontal platform instead of going vertical im surprised they havent tried to power other platforms theyve tried in the past to create technology platforms, whether it be through abc go and things of that nature. It hasnt been so successful this is going to be a war in evolution. Well continue to follow up next, weighing Economic Uncertainty, mike santoli heads to that telestrator with what it could mean for stocks. Plus, u. S. cna tdehira talks set to resume next week. Well bring you a rundown of exactly what you need to watch servicenow put our workflows in the cloud. This changes everything. Youre right sir. Everything. No not everything, i mean youre still blatantly sucking up to me gary. Brilliantly observed, sir. Always three steps ahead. Six steps ahead. Sixteen. So many steps. You done . A million steps ahead. Servicenow. Works for you. Lets send it over to mike santoli for his final dashboard of the day and the week. Let me just give a little bit of a hint. This is not an easy theme to figure out, but the theme is 1969 we had the lowest employment rate since 1969. Do you want a drink i was having one the kbap wgap was founded in 19. Take the money and run, that was a woody allen move from 1969 and this is a song, bad moon rising also from that year. So look at the Economic Policy uncertainty index for the u. S. It tries toll measure both News Conference of Economic Uncertainty but also the general, actual snruncertainty about tax policy it just made a couple of really big spikes here in the last year, as we all know mostly, its about trade, but also the fed and even things like the daelebt ceiling has coe into play. Basically, the market knows everything that goes into this uncertainty. Nothing comes as a surprise. The fact that there are these uncertainties out there. And then when it recedes, the market has tended to do well this is postelection. Thats 2016 into 2017, when we had tax changes coming that, obviously, was pretty bullish. And this, of course, here, was the sort of debt ceiling, debt downgrade for the u. S. Crisis as well so not a bad thing, but, you know, maybe a sign that were not necessarily going to be beyond all of this news anytime soon all right, thank you. Up next, well look at how all the because surrounding the new joker media could impa tcthe new hbo max streaming service. Joke he were hitting movie theaters sparking controversy across the u. S Julia Boorstin has more. The r rated joker is so dark it has raised concerns it could incite violence at the movie theaters which is why the nypd takes precautions and a Southern California theater closed down temporarily after a threat with you that hasnt hurt demand for the movie. The film grossed over 13 million in domestic previews put going on track to hit as much as 90 at the box office this weekend, beating the october record set by sonys venom last year well have to see how this stand alone origin story impacts interest and warner medias d. C. Comics universe ahead of more films from d. C. Coming out next year as well as the launch of warner medias hbo max, which will of course feature this family of films. Guys back to you julia, you mentioned the nypd taking some precautions as well as california is that pretty standard for movie most of the theaters and chains across the country or just large city locations i think its important to say here we spoke to Warner Brothers about this and they said there has been no credible threat identified there doesnt seem to be anything specific. But ever since the shooting in the aurora, colorado, theater about 7 years ago there has been sort of sensitivity about potential dangerous situations in movie theaters. That Aurora Shooting was for a batman film. I think there is heightened sensitivity around this film its a dark movie. I havent seen it but its one of the thiks where people feel like better safe than sorry in terms sterms terms of stepping up the security especially in new york around this. Makes sense, the promos seem intense maybe ill wait until other people tell me its not too scare yao. Wmg coming up, the wall street look ahead, key things to watch wase head to the new trading week when closing bell comes back this is the family who wanted to connect. To go where they could explore and experience adventure in unexpected places. Who were inspired by different cultures and found that the past can create new memories. Leading them to discover were woven together by the moments we share. For everywhere you go, expedia has everything you need, all in one place. Things you can do with schwab you can earn more when you invest your cash. You can get a satisfaction guarantee. You can also wonder why our competitors dont offer that. Schwab, a modern approach to wealth management. Well toopg at where we ended the day today on the dow up by 1. 4 372 points for the dow, ending there at session highs after a very wild, wild week and several final trading sessions but weve got a big week ahead still. Because weve got earnings from delta, levis and dominos on top. Plus also the fed minutes on wednesday. Dont forget, china, the trade talks set to resume with the United States as well pl we asked the cleveland fed president loretta midwester about the impact on the economy earlier this hour. Here is what she said. I think you can easily look at growth abroad Global Growth is slowing right . Trade policy is creating uncertainty. The tariffs have impact as well. I think those factors really account for the slowed we have seen abroad into the Manufacturing Sector in the u. S. And also the export side of the u. S. Economy. Speaking with trade, Kayla Tausche joins with us a look at what to watch for when the talks rezblum feels like ground hog day. The talk ramping up over the next we can. Deputies meet monday to put together what im told is a menu of items helping to ease tensions liuhu arrives wednesday to put together items that could lead to agreement. China very much wants to make this deal. China is getting killed. The tariffs are killing china. Sources close to talks emphasize President Trump has the final say but that his erratic actions this week only increase the unpredictability. Court, scott i mean scott and kourtney. Knew what you meant but i like scottny thats a good one. Scott i know you were talking. Its been a long week. Yeah sure has. We get it. Scott, i know you were saying earlier you think were getting a deal next week. I dont think we get a keel. Or at least forward progress. My thought is, kayla, that the increased pressure that may be on the administration to get something positive out of this just considering everything thats now swirling in d. C. Around impeachment you might think that, scott but remember you also Vermont Democratic debate the following week and if President Trump agrees to what is seen as mini deal or interim deal that sets up the entire democratic field to call him weak upon china. Theyve said that he is right to pressure china they said the tariffs might be working. So to agree to some sort of deal that is not a full slate of promises from china to fix the issues that he took issue with in the beginning, he could open himself up to more criticism too. Yeah. I think youll have a very busy week next week, kayla thank you for joining us today. Sure. All depends, too maybe some of in is you know buying ahead of ahead of that. From today. Or at least a sell. Could be getting out of the way and feeling you dont want to be too negative the bottom line is you can say i dont believe any kind of real trade deal is remotely priced in so the sensitivity to the headlines would be more to the Positive Side than the negative. But i think the market is quit trying to handicap it in a precise way because its been burned so many times trying to figure out the next step thats why i feel like again you can rest easy a deal, positive but not does it for us on closing bell. Fast money begins right now. Live from the Nasdaq Market site overlook new york citys times square this is fast money. Im melissa lep. Traders are tim seert process process Carter Werth Dan nathan and guy adami back from the heartland. Tonight on fast, buckle up, because the transports could signal a rocky road ahead. Well tell you how to navigate it plus the chart knocking the socks off the chart master this week well tell what you it is. And disney goes mean girls on net friction why its telling thestreaming giant you cant sit with us. We begin with the whacky week on wall street youll the strive, panic, for what . No