To settle the score. The stock market has seen big pops and drops as the bond market went bonkers. New fears a recession could be coming fuelling all of the volatility you can see the wild week right there. Down 380, up 370, an 800 point decline and so on. How do you set up going into next week . First of all, great to have you on board. Thank you. It is friday in the summer and you are here having done seven hours of Live Television today. Without a pocket what does it tell you about my like of being here . It tells me you put in the effort, man. You put one down and one right behind it. A short show on friday. Sorry. What does it tell me . It is one of the most violent rallies for markets heading lower. I do think if i look at the last significant market selloffs theyve been followed or led by a vix culminating around 30. I think that takes us to an s p 500 somewhere around 2650. We will see, but thats how you know it is over. Dan, do you agree or disagree very interestingly what are you trying to say . Im saying two of the biggest point declines of all year happened in the last ten trading days. You know where they stopped on the penny . 2825 in the cash interesting. Three times we have caught a little support there so to me i think the balance is precarious at best when you look where the shock has been over the last 18 months, theyve been to the down side. We talk about it again and again. Theres been no momentum when we get to the prior highs for a meaningful breakout here we may me ander towards 3,000, but if we break 2800 we are headed thats right. If you reset aggressively thinking about it. We are backing and filling, biding time and the volatility increases. Markets reset aggressively, down 600 and now the decision. Other people say it is getting worse. Usually after the initial move in the volatility you have a second move in the direction of the primary move, which would be l lower. Do you need to set these guys straight or do you agree i tell you what, 2825, which is the 15week moving average, is a major support 2750 after that. I will let those guys go from there. The important thing to remember this week tenyear yields were down, but it wasnt the weakness that brought it down it is dragged down by bund in addition to the macro data, et cetera, look at the dollar. We have fed minutes coming up next week. We will hear powell talk at jackson hole we have a dynamic where i dont think we have a fed thats as dovish as people think i think we have central bank differentials that now really favor the dollar in other words i think we have uber, uber dovish ecb, and i think we have well see what we have in the fed that concerns me for next week just in terms of weekly trading patterns, this week is exactly like last week think about what we did. We opened with a lot of pain, a lot of fear, a lot of unknown. The markets faced the abyss and the reality setback in i think you could see the same pattern next week, but, again, the u. S. Is not about to go into recession even though that was the talk this week. What matters more to the market right now, walmart or sisco . Walmart i use it for the consumer dont get mad. Im not getting mad you are in my kitchen. It is five minutes into the show and it is a friday. Im bailing you out. People say the consumer is so strong i say, listen, never underestimate the u. S. Consumers want to spend, should they be spending. It doesnt mean they should be. Why should they be . The consumer has 13. 5 trillion no, no, now you have 54 Consumer Debt to gdp, a staggering number. Thats a consumer that says, hey, the stock market goes up every day, i feel weltalthier. What is more important is what cisco said Going Forward the cisco quarter was good, the guidance wasnt terrible but commentary was. If you are deere, are you going to tell me deere is more important . Five of us here, i think given the choice you gave me, would you rather, i would rather cisco fastball. I would rather the cisco commentary than the walmart quarter. Lets make one point about walmart. Walmart is a staple. They have sell half of their 500 billion in sales is groceries. Look at the rest of the xrt. Look at what got battered, and thats the stuff thats more discretionary when you think about Department Stores and stuff like that. And amazon is not performing. Right so to me i dont think walmart is that standout if you were to ask me, how did you like reaps this week or consumer staples, i think the change quarter over quarter and what cisco said about their 5 of sales that come from china was down 25 , i think it is more significant than happened in two months okay it took 10 off the stock in two trading days that is what i would be keying on i would be less focused on the u. S. Consumer because the entire Global Economy right now is on the u. S. Consumers shoulders and it is not a place you want to be. Twothirds on the consumers shoulder if the consumer is strong, isnt that something to hang your hat on wait, wait. Auto sales. You see some bifurcation in consumers. To be clear it is not like the consumer is healthy across all metrics. If i look at walmart, 2. 8 same sales comps is very good higher ticket prices is good for them i think theyve given the house away and ultimately you will see inflation feed through i dont want to own walmart at 23 times, but i do think that that is a place where we will continue look, restaurant stocks, think of retail sales that came in at 1 up this week. Was it wednesday it was about. 6 better than expected because of restaurant, because of online spending, places i think consumers are not breaking the bank. I think it is not good for luxury items, for highticket items and major discretionary, but theres no reason for the investor at home to be running out of stocks that have worked during the entire time so everything in the staples space, in the restaurant space, in the starbucks space, mcdonalds space i think has every reason to keep going. As impressive as walmart was, closed poorly today and all it has done is gotten to where it was two weeks ago, meaning no follow through on the big gap up. Where are we headed next . It is a tale of two titans, we heard from ray dalio and david ruben ste rubenste rub rubenstein in the past 24 hours. What do they think recession, yes, but the question is when theres probably a 40 chance of recession. The u. S. Economy is actually in good shape. Were not an island though and theres no doubt as economies in europe and asia slow down and go into recession, we cant completely avoid that. But at the moment i dont see a recession in the imminent future okay. So the chart master is going to settle the score. Carter. Thats right. You want to go to the plasma and break it down . Not cover i belong in obviously, but lets be honest. Of course you do. Youre in it. One was constructive. One said odds 40 in the next two years and the other said economy is fine, which is not bearish, which means consensus is very much that things are okay there are things that would suggest otherwise. Of course, theres the yield curve. Everyone is watching it. For the first time in a long time it actually ticked below zero so here is the two, tenleer curve. I want to show you data that relates to that. This is a recession indicator. This is instances when the yield curve inverts and the time elapse until gdp recession starts inversion in february 06 and 22 months later, granted in the twoyear time frame you heard, you actually get a gdp recession. In 2000 it was eight months, inverted in 89, in july it was 14 months. In october 80, the reagan rescission, it was nine months lets go forward 1978 to 1980 was 14. 73, 74, a bad bear market. It happened in five. The point being, and you see here in 69, the table would argue what you just heard it is more than a year, but it can also be less than that but the issue is, is it coming i think everyone would have to agree the answer is yes. It is all about timing another way to look at it when the fed tightens this is every tightening cycle since 1954 100 of the time ism has fallen below 50 92 of the time you have an eps recession and 75 of the time you get a gdp recession. The numbers are the numbers, the facts are the facts. It is not that much up to interpretation goes it is all about timing thats the point here. We are all trying to figure it out. The Chicago Business barometer, this just printed 44 we know overall ism is still above 50, but the issue is are we getting down into other periods where you were in recession. Keep those three and i will put in the same chart and well mark off recessions this is a recession, this is a recession, this is a recession this setup, any more weakness and theres nothing more to talk about. All right come on back over. We will kick it around. Said theres nothing the talk about. Theres a little more to talk about. I say this if you think about the last two periods, i think those are the most important, 2007 and 2001, it was 22 months and five months, right, respectively. But in both instances, you know, the fed hadnt started to ease as they are right now. Also, in both instances i think it is really important to remember the s p 500 started to sniff out the recession before we knew we were in recession it was down 50 each time. So if you are waiting for a recession to sell your stocks, thats not a great plan either. Right meaning the leading indicator of all, stock prices, is it foreshadowing a recession that basically no one is willing to call are you going to sell you guys are calling it a lot of people are calling it and the bond market has called it. So to act like i dont think theres some some pessimism in the market, both in terms of positioning and, again, the bond market thats gotten well ahead of the fed, here is a tail wind. Very easy macro policy is something thats supportive. Im sorry. The bond market down at 150 on the tenyear has done an enormous amount of easing for the fed. If you think about first half of gdp for the entirely world has come in, it is not off that bus. The place where theres no confidence is in business. The fact that the market has not fallen on its face, and im not really talking about the market. I am talking about the u. S. Economy. While it is a global market, we will be vulnerable theres no way we stand alone. Theres no question that the u. S. Will continue to be more resilient than the rest of the world. First of all, the market can go up for a long time after the yield curve inverts. Right. And even bullard is saying hes not and hes dovish as dovish comes, and even he is saying im not that worried about it unless it is inverted for a longer period of time. But then is the s p an optical illusion all of the things that we have covered and continue to cover, so that the issue is is it imminent you heard from two of the biggest people of all, they said no is it coming theres no way around it who can time it . I suspect it will be sooner than before. Thank you. And i think it comes down to levels of relativity in terms of what this move is, because i dont think you guys are suggesting a 50 move tomorrow, but you are pointing out that in past recessions this has what, you know, you have seen peak to trough draw downs as much. I think the market right now and when you talk to the pessimists in the market theyre talking about black swans, talking about 20 or 40 . Before 2018 we had a 20 peak to trough decline and it came like that. Carters other point is theres a lot of stocks, big stocks, amazon, apple, theyre already correcting their trends are already moving to the down side. 205. But still down 10 from the alltime high and never confirmed a new high in the s p 500 in the last year so that is a problem small caps Vice President done it banks havent done it. Transports. Energy hasnt done it. He is yelling and pointing. You know what i like about this spirited. The market is correcting in a lot of different ways so maybe thats the warning sign thats flashing that youre not listening to. Pointed again. It was too close for comfort, pal. Coming up, the dow handing in the Third Straight weekly loss is it time to go bargain hunting . Plus carter has a homebuilder trade. We will break it down in the charts there is much more fast money right after this you should be mad that this is your daily commute. You should be mad at people who forget theyre in public. And you should be mad at simple things that are unnecessarily complicated. But youre not mad, because youre trading with e trade, which isnt complicated. Their app makes trading quick and simple so you can strike when the time is right. Dont get mad, get e trade and start trading today. We have a news alert on aramark. Back at hq with the story, eric. Thats right. It could be an activist situation starting to brew here. Invest firm mantle ridge plans to have discussions about aramark about possible changes at the philadelphiabased food facilities and uniform Services Provider thats according to sec filing that stock up 1 right now, it has been up 28 this year. The fund said in the filing it tends to have conversations with management, stockholders and Board Members about the strategies, governance and board composition. We have to watch this in the weeks ahead. Back to you, scott. Thank you, eric tim . It is just spiking on that news well, i tell you what, if you look at the stocky think so, i e of the sense there was this type of accumulation going from 27 bucks up to this level up to today, i am looking at the chart you could attribute it, right . Of course this is sports and food and beverage, Yankee Stadium probably i probably munched on one of their burgers. A mets fan . A huge mets fan. Why are you going yankees on us theyre probably serving inferior food there. I dont know why were talking about it but here i am. I would have thought you would have said citi field thats where the loyalty is. In kansas city this week. Okay. Back to the markets, disney week for the dow it is the third week in a row. Blue chip barge ins, boeing and pfizer sitting at a bargain. Were going to play trade it or fade it. Thank you dont jump on the graphic there. It is a cute graphic, one of our best. It is the game you love lets kick off with boeing, down 26 from the most recent 52week high tim, are you trading it or fading it . Im trading it. I realize people looked at Different Levels on the stock that should have held, what not. 350 was supposed to have held around the levels. You have a stock with a Free Cash Flow yield over 20 the 737 max still an overhang. This reminds me of other moments we have seen in this companys life that were enormous opportunities. Until the Legal Framework changes it is a stocky can own at these levels. Next up, pfizer down 26 from its highs. Carter, trade it or fade it . I mean the selloff is so aggressive for such a low beta stock, im inclined to take advantage of the weakness and buy it so trade it. All right dan, what about exxon . You know, listen, this one is in horrible down trend it is obviously in the hands of all of this macro data we are seeing, and obviously the direction of crude has gone the wrong way here this thing is in a horrible, horrible down trend. It goss a little bounce this week off a level it should have bounced from, but to me i think you are looking at the 2010 lows if you have a break of 65. So i see no reason to rush in. Guy, you are a buyer of exxon, no . You tend to stand behind this one. You hosting the show now . You know what is happening im busy looking at okay. Sorry all right goldman sachs. You know,scott gee, i wonder what hes going to say about this one. What do you think hes going to say fade it. Fade it you thought i was going to say trade it. Only two choices today. There are only two choices, an excellent point goldman in name only, theyre sports fans, i hate to say it, pains me to say it, but i dont think you want to own any of the banks frankly. Citibank is trading 70 of book value. Goldman sachs, though not as bad in terms of exposure, deserves a multiple around there. Had a great run to the upside. I think the stock will trade 185 before it goes back to the recent highs okay. Betting on big moves when target reports results next week. We will break down the action there. Firstist, fast money, fast car. Robert frank live outside pebble beach where is luxury market is in the drivers seat, and so is robert. Hey this car, this ferrari 1962, about to sell tomorrow for 13 million. Which cars you should trade or fade right now and what it means for big brands like porsche and ferrari coming up after the break. Welcome back to fast money. A fresh sign of the strong consumer is on display in pebble beach where expensive cars are up for auction who else but our own robert frank is there with the details. Hey, robert. Hey, scott. Right now the car market looks a lot like the Real Estate Market where the weakest part of the market right few is the very top end whereas the bottom is strong the number of cars selling for a Million Dollars or more down about 30 compared to the peak in 2014. You have the big ferraris, the mercedes which have tended to come down in price a little bit. What is hot right now is the vintage four wheelers and trucks millennials are buying like this 196 ford bronco that will sell up to 80,000. Movie cars doing well this weekend. James bonds db5 which went for 6. 5 million last night the ferris ferrari, rather a replica of the ferrari used in the movie is about to sell for 200,000 the stage has become huge for the car company to launch new products buccati is launching a 10 million car that sold out before it was unveiled lamborghini saying it is a new strategy how to market to their customers. I do believe that the right thing to be is to create unique events in a special location like we are today, to have the right connection with our customers. Now, lamborghini is going to double production with the new suv to over 8,000 vehicles this year, and the ceo telling me basically despite the concerns about a global slowdown they are not seeing it with their 200,000 and 400,000 cars and, again, with that buccati selling out at 10 million we have not seen a big slowdown, but a lot of cars coming into the space at the high end. We will have to see if theres an oversupply. Back to you. All right robert frank, thank you. Ferrari was upgraded this week earlier in the week i dont know if you guys of im actually short. Youre short ferrari in. I am. I think theyve gone from an exclusive brand still an exclusive brand. They ramped up production, the exclusivity factor, theyre getting into suvs, despite the Retail Market for ferrari is extraordinary, i think the stock is expensive. If we can throw up sheas of aramark again, we reported mantle ridge had taken a 10 stake in the company it is actually a 20 stake per their filing approximately 20 of the outstanding shares of common stock they reported a short time ago. Thatsme thats mantle ridge in aramark, that stock is up we will continue to follow that story here. Here on fast money we do fun things oddly enough, tim seymour has done some fun things with fast cars i actually think we might have footage. Look at that look at that wow tremendous. In other words so he is happy to ride in the ferrari but hes baby his it is a little disappointing that im the passenger why hasnt someone given me the keys to this thing the california t, which is a red ferrari i drove actually, i was driving. I am not sure why i wasnt allowed to drive this one. No one trusted me. With good reason. I swear i can drive time for the final trade lets go around the room that was really good. Tim, youre up first. We talked about restaurant stocks yum china underperforming yum brands, no, s brands, not surprising, my money is there. Danny. Tim said something smart. The dollar is coming out nerve earlier. Guy. Bigger weight and you can see the finish line. I can see it in your eyes. Eli lilly got too cheap. That goes. That does it for fast money stick around, options action is coming up next. Driverless cars. All ground personnel. Or trips to mars. 4. 95. Delivery drones or the latest phones. 4. 95. No matter what you trade, at fidelity its just 4. 95 per online u. S. Equity trade. Doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacistrecommendeding . Memory support brand. You can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Hey there. It is friday at 5 30 p. M. Here at the Nasdaq Market site. You know what that means it is time for options action. Here is what is coming up on the show tonight has the market this week left you feeling like carter worth has drawn up some plans to help you get your footing back and use the force, luke. Or better yet, use a caller on the force dan nathan guides you through volatility around salesforce earnings plus, walmart standing apart from a negative week