Central banks are a primary focus, an seen the initial focus this week. Ecb mario draghi is due to address people in sintra in just a moment well stay tuned for that piece coming up in a short while the Federal Reserve is expected to keep Interest Rates on hold at its twoday policy meeting that begins later today. Invest and economists said there remains a high likelihood of a rate cut later in the year analysts from bank of america, jpmorgan and bmo forecast the cut in September Jpmorgan and bmo said they also expect another move in december. Goldman sachs and citi, they dont agree with the assessment. They say their best case is that the fed will take no action at all in 2019. Theyre calling for a cut in june, so thats tomorrow well see what happens here in europe, the ecb flagged it will postpone any rate hike until the middle of next year. Low inflation has hampered the eurozone in recent years and the central Bank Launched a fresh round to boost the central bank. Annette joins us were a bit of central bank geeks. Theres one message that people are focused on, Inflation Expectations in europe have been dropping the last couple of weeks. If anything theyre at alltime lows now they have set the bar quite low for dovishness and what we can expect to hear out of mario draghi yes, we are expecting mario draghi to address inflation, of course he will also speak about the European Union today in sintra is the day theyre reflecting about the path and how successful the project of the euro was and how successful mario draghi was. Pulling it altogether during the crisis tomorrow theyre speak about the future and the challenges of the eurozone but clearly inflation was weighing was big on everybodys minds, looking at Inflation Expectations dropping to record lows interestingly, the five years ago was mentioned by mario draghi himself as the new thing to look at when we talk about Inflation Expectations hes tried to do that already and taking the attention away from the market base Inflation Expectation to those calculated by the ecb and i guess this will be one of the messages he wants to convey to the public here in sintra that things are not as bad as the market is actually pricing it in. Even though we have to look at the markets clearly. I think it will be like it is a very difficult walk hes trying to do clearly the market is telling us a totally different story than the Economic Data we are currently having that holds true also for the bond market. I guess the ecb is also only starting the process of thinking about what is actually right is it the market, the bond market, is it their own models, i guess this discussion has only started. The situation may worsen if we see a deanchoring of Inflation Expectations that should not happen at all. I guess even mario draghi this last month will be able to deploy a full set of messages to counter such apotential, the anchors of Inflation Expectations i think the waters were tested on monday in an interview with the the Financial Times where it was stressed that the ecb is the institution who is setting the limits and nobody else indeed. We await the remarks from president draghi in the interim, i want to bring it to another important topic, that is that the president is actually stepping down in a few months time. Lots of names have been put forward as potential contenders to replace president draghi. Isnt it crucial at this point for them to spell out what tools are available in the toolkit if the ecb were to be more accommodative in the future . And it will be interesting to see the language from each contender as to whether or not they have a preference for using Interest Rates over quantitative easing over reinvestments which is something you mentioned that has been talked about quite a lot. Yes, but its interesting to see the contenders, we are always mentioning them like the French Central Bank governor or the German Central Bank governor, they want to keep a low profile here in sintra they wait and see what the political scene will do at the summit later this week clearly its like a house of cards. First we need to get the Eu Commission president , then the european council, only after that politicians will eventually get around to who will be the next president of the ecb. Also benoit is in the running, and many Market Participants would like him to be the next ecb president. Clearly he has a feel for the markets. He has a feel for the political side he was sitting on the board for so many years. So hes also backing the current measures i guess this will be an interesting one. Clearly benoit, there are still legal limitations because theres some statutes inside the ecb saying a Current Governing Council member cant move on to the top of the bank but theres also some caveats. So its not an impossibility to see him moving to the top. Its a very exciting couple of months for the ecb, not least because of the personnel changes as well as some pressures on them on the Monetary Policy front. Well come back out to you shortly. I believe some of the introductory remarks have been released prfrnlg a version of his comments has been released. We can see the summary of that draghi saying Monetary Policy can always achieve its objective alone especially in europe hes saying if we are to live with that value inflation mediumterm inflation has to be above that level the app stitools are specific t contingencies that we face those are his comments we are getting a Market Reaction there the Euro Currency is dropping on this were seeing a bounce on bunds, so yields have dropped after draghi has said that key line, Asset Purchase Program has considerable headroom. When you go back to the technicalities of the Asset Purchase Program, one of the selfimposed constraints is the technical limitation of up to 30 of outstanding issuance. They could raise it to 50 , that would give them a little bit more ammunition in terms of the available bonds that they could buy out. Its interesting that he chose this speech in particular to emphasize the room that they have on the Asset Purchase Program. Just to give you some more comments he says negative rates have proven to be an important tool in the euro area indicates for the coming quarters point to lingering softness were seeing that in the hard data in europe over the last few months in the absence of improvement, they will be looking to take further action you can see mr. Draghi is approaching the stage. Well take you live to listen in to his comments as he begins speaking in sintra Central Banks were often established in the past with the aim of bringing stability in the aftermath of cap results the bank of england was established during the sovereign debt crisis of 1690 when the government was unable to obtain funding in the market. The Federal Reserve was created out of a series of panics that rocked the u. S. Banking system in the late 19th and early 20th century. The euro was introduced 20 years ago in response to repeated episodes of Exchange Rate instability and the need to secure the Single Market against competitive devaluations the ecb was established as the keystone of the new economic and Monetary Union the first decade of the Monetary Union was categorized by calm Economic Conditions with limited volatility and steady Economic Growth the second decade, however, has seen profound shifts in the prevailing environment, including both financial and sovereign debt crisis. And our Monetary Policy strategy has had to adapt with it i would like to discuss this morning why this evolution came about and how it was achieved. And what the past 20 years can tell us about the ecbs Monetary Policy in the future the ecbs mandate is given by the treaty as price stability. In 1998 the governing council defined price stability as inflation within a range of zero to 2 over the medium term, which constitutes the ecbs objective. Then in 2003, the governing council clarified that within this range it would aim at a focal point of below but close to 2 , which remains our medium term aim to this day this was a formulation that differed from the standard inflation targeting framework of the time which was typically based around a point target for inflation there were sound reasons why this definition was put in place. In common with Central Banks across the world, the ecb faced a Macro Economic environment before the crisis that was predominantly defined by low volatility and moderate shocks, with the distribution of shocks to inflation almost exclusively to the upside. In theeuro area, hicb Energy Prices rose by 80 between january 1999 and september of 2008 under these conditions establishing a strong reaction function against high inflation was seen as crucial to anchor Inflation Expectations emphasizing an aim of below but close to 2 was seen to imply a strong commitment than a standard inflation targeting regime but Monetary Policy in the euro area also faced a special challenge. The ecb was a new central Bank Operating in a union which created a particular imperative to establish inflation credibility. Establishing a commitment to controlling inflation was seen as critical to cement lower Inflation Expectations across the euro area. Especially as moderate inflation was a relatively new phenomenon in several Member States over the 20 years up to 1999 inflation had averaged about 3 in 10 of the 12 original members. The declining inflation in many countries in the run up to the economic and Monetary Union was in large part due to expectations of joining as well as to a number of extraordinary actions take bin National Authorities to meet the convergence criteria from 1989 to 1999 longterm Inflation Expectations had fallen from a range between 2. 5 to 4. 5 in the four largest euro area economies to below 2 across the board it was now the task of the new central bank to lock in this moderate inflation environment and it did so successfully over the next decade Inflation Expectations internalized the ecbs commitment to keep inflation down and remained below 2 but this process of building inflation credibility had implications for the ecbs reaction function. As a matter of accounting, stabilizing headline inflation largely caused by its volatile components must mean that core inflation adjusts downwards. Rolling cross correlations between Energy Inflation and core inflation showed that an episode of high Energy Inflation between 1999 and 2007 was accompanied by a period of rapidly softening core inflation. As a result, between january 1999 and september 2008 headline inflation in the euro area averaged 2. 35, while core inflation averages 1. 7 and exceeded 2 less than 15 of the time Central Banks and other advanced economies faced similar challenges and adopted similar strategies but differences in mandates and length of track records in fighting inflation led to differences in how much energy price passed through to headline inflation others were comfortable accommodating. For example, Energy Prices in u. S. Cpi rose by 160 over the same period, and headline inflation averages 2. 9 . The Federal Reserve reacted less to headline inflation and core cpi inflation averaged 2. 2 . The upshot was that the euro area entered the crisis having established its antiinflation credentials but we underlined inflation dynamics that were perhaps relatively weaker. This was not immediately apparent as inflation stayed at fairly elevated levels for more than four years after the lehman crash. Monetary policy responded to the Global Financial crisis and this inflationary threat seemed to pass quickly but in hindsight it seems reasonable to conclude that inflation process was vulnerable to a shift in the environment which is what transpired from around mid 2012 onwards. At this point headline inflation in the euro area began what was in retrospect a prolonged downward drift and core inflation fell by almost a percentage point from mid 2012 to early 2014. There are two factors that help explain the switch to a dis disinflationary trend. The distribution of shocks to inflation moved strongly to the down side and the amplitude of the shocks increased supply side shocks gradually dissipated over the years following the lehman crash and the sovereign debt crisis. Negative demand shocks driven in different times by domestic demand and external demand instead became the dominant source of Macro Economic fluctuations in the euro area. Ecb Analysis Shows the negative demand shocks have waited on euro area inflation by more than 1 percentage point on average since the start of the crisis. In the previous ten years their effect was natural overall with herds of boar periods of upward and downward pressure the second factor was a change in the Macro Economic policy mix. While in the first phase of the crisis fiscal and Monetary Policy had eased in tandem with fiscal policy loosening by a total of about 3 of potential gdp between 2008 and 2010, thereafter the stance of monetary and fiscal policy decoupleed the euro area fiscal stance turned contractionary tightening by around 4 spent taj points of gdp until 2013 the euro area was mostly in recession. This stands in contrast to the United States where fiscal policy is more in the initial phase of the crisis by about 6. 5 percent of potential gdp, in total over 2008 and 2009, and then tightened by about 5. 5 of potential gdp from 2011 to 2013 when the economy recovery was under way. The euro area was forced on to a differential path by the need for some countries to establish fiscal credibility, on aggregate the euro area didnt have less fiscal space than the United States, public debt levels were similar in the two jurisdictions. The key difference was that fiscal stabilization in the United States took place at the federal level, while the euro area lacked a central fiscal instrument to act counter cyclically the policy mix is also relevant when it comes to the Financial Sector policies. After the crisis, it was inevitable that Banking Sectors in advanced economies would have to deleverage. Both to cover losses and refocus their business models. The United States assured this process happened quickly and early, around 500 failing banks were absorbed while struggling banks were stress tested and capitalized through the troubled Asset Relief Program between 2008 and 2011, u. S. Banks improved their leverage ratio by 1. 6 Percentage Points from 7. 2 to 8. 8. The response in the euro area was more sluggish. Despite being more leveraged than their u. S. Peers before the crisis, euro area banks improved their leveraged ratio by just 0. 9 Percentage Points from 3. 7 to 4. 6 and this was achieved more through shedding assets and less through raising capital. This in part reflected thefact that did you to the fiscal rules public support for banks was concentrated in countries with fiscal space moreover only around 50 banks were resolved in the euro area in this period so a weak Banking Sector continued to drag on the euro area economy in sum the ecb faced an environment where there was both an increase in need to counter demand shocks and an increasing burden on Monetary Policy to do so our strategy therefore to adapt to these new circumstances in order to continue delivering our aim. Monetary policy responded first in the summer of 2012 by acting to diffuse the sovereign debt crisis which had evolved from a tail risk for inflation into a material threat for price stability. Announcing outright monetary transactions established our commitment to counter unwarranted redenomination risks in sovereign debt markets and acted as a powerful circuit breaker. While om it was neomt was nevere investigated, the announcement was equivalent to that of a large scale asset program. Spreads in Vulnerable Countries fell on the average of 400 basis points in the next two years the Macro Economic impact of omt was analogous to other programs. Ecb Research Finds that gdp and price effects of omt were broadly in line with those estimated for the qe that took place in the United States and the unite td kingdom. The lingering effects of the sovereign debt crisis dented the capacity of this stimulus to counter the new disinflationary trend. The delayed Bank Deleveraging process in the euro bank area began to accelerate with banks further shrinking Balance Sheets and paying back central bank loans. Bank Balance Sheets declined by 20 Percentage Points of gdp in 2013 alone and at the end of 2013 credit growth to the private sector was contracting at the rate of 2. 4 relative to a year earlier on the demand side Risk Appetite collapsed with investments subtracting 1. 6 Percentage Points from gdp growth in 2012 the ecb therefore reacted again in 2013 by cutting its main Financing Rate twice from 0. 75 to 0. 25, and by seizing the opportunity of the launch of a european banking supervision we carried out a comprehensive assessment of bank Balance Sheets with the aim of steering Balance Sheet repair towards a positive Macro Economic outcome. Banks strengthened their Balance Sheets by over 200 billion euro in advance of the outcome. That put Banking Sectors in a much stronger position to transmit our policy. But at this point the euro area economy was hit by a further downward shock to inflation in the form of a 60 collapse in oil prices in mid 2014 which pushed inflation into negative territory with underlying inflation already weakening, Inflation Expectations began to be affected as the scope for further Interest Rate cuts was now limited, it became increasingly clear that our reaction function needed to evolve to address these new challenges indeed since our policy framework has never been systematically tested by persistent disinflationary risk, the ecb had not yet had a chance to demonstrate its intolerance for inflation remaining below i aim for protracted periods of time at the same time there appeared to be some uncertainty about which tools we would be able to deploy if the effective lower bound were reached unlike other major economies, the ecb had not resorted to large scale asset purchases during the Global Finance crisis and its aftermath. Some even questioned the legality of asset purchases in europe and their effectiveness in our bankbased economy. If these uncertainties befoy iet removed there was a risk that falling inflation could become selffulfilling. The public could expect a smaller monetary response to future inflation undershoots an downwards. So credibility now relied not just on perceptions of the ecbs commitment to our aim but also on perceptions of our capability to fight low inflation we responded to this situation in three main ways the first was by clarifying the symmetry of our aim. Why the quantitative definition of price stability was instrumental in establishing credibility in the first decade the asset formulation may have led to misperceptions in a low inflation environment. Thus we made clear that our policy aim was fully symmetric and symmetric around the level we established in 2003, below but close to 2 . It is achieving this aim over the medium term that steers our policy decisions in addition, we clarified symmetry meant not only that we would not accept persistently low inflation but also there was no implication that inflation can deviate from our aim in both directions so long as the path of inflation converges back towards that focal point over the medium term policy horizon the second part of our response was to lay out the tools we would use to counteract inflation risks, which began with a speech i gave in amsterdam in april 2014 that described three contingencies and the instruments we would use to react to them this established that we had nothing institutionally or legally special about the euro area that prohibited Monetary Policy from adding accommodation once the lower bound was approached third, as these various contingencies played out, we operationalized our reaction function by launching a series of new instruments we broke through the zero bound by lowering our deposit rate to negative territory, we launched our refinancing operations to provide incentives for banks to lend and implemented a large scale asset program. These measures were deliberately designed to work as a package and ease the stance through complimentary channels working both through banks and the wider metrics of Capital Markets the negative rate policy challenged Market Expectations that when rates reached zero, they could only go up and not down that helped skew the distribution of rate expectations and depressed the short end of the riskfree curve. A key benchmark for the pricing of bank loans, asset purchases in tandem compressed yields at the longer end of the curve pushing down mortgage rates, at the same time making bank lending more attractive in risk adjusted terms and this was amplified by lower funding costs and increased Competition Among banks. Over time we also enhanced this framework with state and datebased Forward Guidance allowing us to rotate the marginal tool for determining the policy stance from asset purchases to Forward Guidance as the Economic Outlook improved. Today this Forward Guidance links our expectations on the path of future rates to the path of inflation towards our aim leading to automatic easing if the convergence path towards 2 is delayed there is a mountain of evidence that these instruments have been effective. Negative rates have proven to be an important tool in the euro area and more so than they would have been in an economy like the United States. Indeed the Federal Reserve didnt have negative rates in part due to concerns about their effects on the money Market Industry those are key intermediaries in the u. S. Financial system. But this factor is less relevant in the euro area since many market funds have been operating as variable Net Asset Value funds and therefore are more flexible to extend duration to seek additional returns. Furthermore the euro area is a relatively open economy for its size with total trade making up 51 of gdp compared with 27 in the United States this means that the impact on negative rates on inflation and financing conditions via the Exchange Rate is more powerful in short, faced with a new environment of Downside Risks and limited conventional policy space, the ecb showed that it had no shortage of tools available to respond unconventional measured proved suitable substitutes for conventional ones. Using market prices to construct the socalled shadow short rate the stimulus provided appears broadly in line with the recommendations of Monetary Policy rules as suggested by recent Academic Research our capacity to react in this way was made possible by the flexibility embedded in our mandate. A flexibility that was confirmed by the recent ruling of the European Court of justice. This not only affirmed that asset purchases are a legal instrument of Monetary Policy in the euro area but emphasized the broad discretion of the ecb in using all our tools in a proportionate way to achieve our objective. However though we have seen the successful transmission of Monetary Policy to financing conditions and from financing conditions to gdp and employment, the final legsof the transmission process to wages and inflation have been slower than we expected. But wage growth is now strengthening as slack in the labor market diminishing the pass through from wages to prices remains weak. This may reflect structural changes such as globalization and digitalization which mostly have an impact at this point in the price and chain. Lingering cyclical weakness could also delay which price pass through as firms elect to squeeze margins rather than raise prices and risk losing market share as i emphasized at our last Monetary Policy meter ieting, w committed and not resigned to having a low rate of inflation forever or even for now. We have described the overall orientation of our Monetary Policy as being patient, persistent and prudent patient becausepreet repeated negative shocks we had to extend the horizon. We have had to assure the sustain the convergence of inflation to our aim and prudent because we will pay close attention to underlying inflation dynamics and to risks and we will adjust policy appropriately. This orientation is expressed in our current policy framework which allows us to adapt our Forward Guidance and react as the Macro Economic situation evolves. That was illustrated by the policy decisions taken at our meeting in june. Looking forward, the risk outlook remains tilted to the downside, indicators for the coming quarters point to lingering softness the risks that have been prominent throughout the past year, in particular geopolitical factors, the rising threat of protectionism, vulnerabilities in emerging markets, they have not dissipated and the prolongation of risks have weighed on imports and manufacturing. In the absence of improvement such that the sustained return of inflation to our aim is threatened, additional stimulus will be required in our havenrecent deliberation members of the governing council expressed their conviction to pursuing 2 in a symmetric fashion, just as our policy framework has evolved in the past to counter new challenges so it can again in t in the coming weeks the governing council will deliberate how our measures can be adapted commensurate to price stability. We remain able to enhance our Forward Guidance by adjusting its bias and its conditionality to account for variations in the adjustment path of inflation by the way, this applies to all instruments over Monetary Policy stance further cuts in policy Interest Rates and mitigating measures to contain any side effects remain part of our tools. And the a. P. P. Still has considerable headroom. Moreover, the treaty requires that our actions are both necessary and proportionate to fulfill our mandate and achieve our objective, which implies that the limits we establish on our tools are specific to the contingencies we face. If the crisis has shown anything, it is that we will use all the flexibility within our mandate to fulfill our mandate, and we will do so again to answer any challenges to price stability in the future. All these options that were raised and discussed at our last meeting. What matters for our policy calibration is our medium term policy aim inflation rate below but close to 2 , that aim is symmetric, which means that if we are to deliver that value of inflation in the medium term, inflation has to be above that level sometime in the future but fiscal policy should play its role over the last ten years the burden on Macro Economic adjustment has fallen disproportionately on Monetary Policy we have even seen instances where fiscal policy has been o procyclical and countered the monetary stimulus. If the unbalanced Macro Economic mix in your area partly explains that slide into disinflation, so a better policy mix can help bring it to a close. Monetary policy can always achieve its objective alone, but especially in europe where public sectors are large it can do so faster and with fewer side effects if fiscal policies are aligned with it. Recreating fiscal space by raising potential output through reforms and Public Investment and respecting the european fiscal framework will maintain Investor Confidence in countries with high public debt, low growth, and low fiscal space but as fiscal expansion in the other countries may have limited spillovers, National Fiscal policies remain constrained. So work on a common fiscal stabilization instrument of adequate design should proceed with broader scope but especially renewed determination. Let me conclude, the euro was introduced 20 years ago in order to insulate the Single Market from Exchange Rate crisis and competitive devaluations that would threaten the sustainability of open markets but it was also a political project that relying on the success of the Single Market would lead to the greater integration of its Member States on both counts the vision of our forefathers has scored relatively well. Imagine where the Single Market would be today after the Global Financial crisis and rise in protectionism had all countries in europe been free to adjust their Exchange Rates instead our economies integrated, converged, and coped with a most severe challenge sense the Great Depression that leads me to four observations first, the integration of our economies and with it the convergence of our member state has also greatly increased misalignments of Exchange Rates between euro area countries are about half those between advanced economies with flexible Exchange Rates or countries linked by pegged Exchange Rates. Not only that, this misalignment has also fallen by around 20 in the second decade of trelative the first. Second, about convergence, the dispersion of froth ratgrowth rs across euro countries having fallen considerably since 1999 is since 2014 comparable to the dispersion across u. S. States. Third, about prosperity growth again, about integration this process has been driven in large part about the deepening of value chains with countries now significantly more integrated with each other than the United States or china are with the rest of the world most eu countries export more with each other than with the u. S. , china or russia. Fourth, employment in the your ro area has reached record highs in all euro area countries but one stands above its 1999 level. But having said that, the remaining institutional weaknesses cannot be ignored at the cost of seriously damaging whats been achieved logic would suggest that the more integrated our economies become, the faster should be the completion of the banking union, Capital Markets union, and the faster the transition from a rulesbased system for fiscal policies to an institutionbased fiscal capacity. The Journey Towards greater integration that our citizens and firms started 20 years ago has been long, far from finished and with broad but uneven success. But overall it has strengthened the conviction of our peoples that it is only through more europe that implications of this integration can be managed for some that trust may lie in a faith in our common destiny. For others, it comes from the appreciation of the greater prosperity so far achieved for yet others that trust may be forced by the increased and unavoidable closeness of our countries. Be that as it may, that trust is now the bedrock upon which our leaders can and will build the next steps of our economic and Monetary Union thanks that was mario draghi ending his introduk introductory comment theres at the conference of sintra willem, do you have a bazooka ready . It seems we heard from vintage bazooka mario draghi quick recap of what he said. Asset Purchase Program still has considerable headroom, negative rates are still an important tool in the euro area and all options have beenrt 1200tngo asss the Interest Rate were probably not going to beresolved soon. n also not then Political Risk ao not be resolved soon thats why we will mosti] likely see the ecb restarting central pr thought andniperhaps even as sn the discussion has just started to remind you here on the ground in qintra, we wereq going to hr more from policymakers about inflation and how actually toq boosti] linflation. I get the general sense here that people dont want inflation to just be back to closn to 2c but they want to have an overshooting of inflation that over the median term they can say they reached their target. Thats another part of the he . rflation in a symmetric y that means that also inflation now needs to overshoot in order medium term. With that, back to niou. X the big quesin is people believe them when they say the target is symmetric. We will still be asking thatf a quick look at thefareaction. Thisn after thei d. Nh remarn also want to turn your attention to the fixed income space. A huge rally over here tenyear bunds minus 30 basis points lowest yield ever for tenyear german bunds france about to break through zero as well perhaps the Italian Government will be happy with this outcome. Lets bring in peter who has been sitting analyzing every nuance of this speech with us. What is your main takeaway from today . Of course its the speech, which is more dovish than maybe the market was expecting actually if you listen to it, i dont think theres that much that is completely new i think ecb officials have been emphasizing for some time that there is more ammunition in the locker, but i think what mario draghi has done today is stated that in tenfoot high letters. I think some specificity about what needs to be done around changing the terms by which qe is done, that was something that the market was looking for maybe he needs to be more specific, but indicating how many constraints on can be bought, he is saying thats in our control if we want to change that, we can a bit more granular about the tools they can use without giving too much information. Is it necessary . Looking at your Economic Outlook, you have eurozone growth at 1 , were not in recession territory. For me listening to this speech, ive been covering the ecb for a long time, this sounds like a central bank that is beginning to worry almost panic. Is that necessary . I think whether were talking about the euro area, whether were talking about the u. S. , people are talking about insurance Interest Rate cuts the idea that theres so much uncertainty around whats going on with trade, around the International Outlook that it may be important to just put a floor under those expectations weve been seeing Inflation Expectations getting lower this is a strong signal they dont want to tolerate that. The one thing i want to add, this idea that the ecb are moving to a price level target, i think we shouldnt yet jump to that conclusion. Hes talked about a symmetric target which is what they always had. I think i would want to see more before i was convinced that the ecb were moving to a world where they had to have high inflation to offset periods of low inflation. Thats a big step. Well leave it there. Peter, thank you very much for taking the time to chat with us. Perm nell chang. We have some more from the ecb forum at sintra when annette speaks to Ewald Nowotny at 11 30 cet. We have another one tomorrow, an exclusive interview with luis de gunidos. Carry lam apologized on camera for the protests that had taken place in recent weeks. She said there was no timetable for moving the extradition bill forward. I personally had to shoulder much of the responsibility this has led to controversies and anxieties in society for this, i offer my most sincere apology. Other top story today, the president of iran has said the country will not wage war against any other nation he spoke at the inauguration ceremony of a new airport terminal in tehran after the United States had announced it would deploy around 1,000 additional troops to the middle east region. The u. S. Acting defense secretary Patrick Shanahan previously insisted last weeks attacks on two oil tankers on the coast of iran validated the reliab reliable, credible intelligence weve received on hostile actions by iranian forces. The u. S. Has tens of thousands of troops already in the area. They announced they will send another 1,000, 1,500 more there last month will another 1,000 make a difference here or is it posturing . Thats the question, joumanna this is a developing story we heard from the chinese earlier today. The russians are weighing in on this troop increase. They said the u. S. Must drop plans to boost military presence or risk war with iran. Following this troop announcement from the United States, tehran responded president rouhani coming out saying that they dont want to wage war i think its important to take a step back here and as you say look at how many troops we already have in the region the United States has 20,000 boots on the ground between iraq, afghanistan, syria and elsewhere. We have the fifth fleet anchored in bahrain this is a massive piece of infrastructure, theyre monitoring millions of square kilo meters meters of waterways. This has been going on for decades. Its an important and fundamental point here, when it comes to increasing by just 1,000, this is the second troop increase that weve seen in the last couple of months. Really it may just be more about optics than anything else. Absolutely. Valid point there, well keep an eye on those developments. Quick look at u. S. Futures before we head out all of the three makers are opening up in the green. S p up about 10 points dow about 70 all the focus on this week is Central Banks, but lets not forget we heard from mario draghi, and tomorrow in the u. S. All eyes will be on the fed and that language and whether they will signal for an Interest Rate cut. Thats it for our show today im Joumanna Bercetche im willem marx Worldwide Exchange is coming up in a few moments. The first survivor of alzheimers disease is out there. And the Alzheimers Association is going to make it happen. But we wont get there without you. Visit alz. Org to join the fight. Youre here to buy a usethats smart. Suv. 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Mario draghi to the rescue major moves right now in europe as the ecb president says that more stimulus there could be on the way. Tension rising with iran the pentagon deploying 1,000 more troops to the middle east and rough skies for boeing how much the 737 max grounding may really be costin