Points s p sitting at 60 or so points above its low. Were watching a whole bunch of Different Levels today notwithstanding the bottom right hand corner, thats the yield on the tenyear note, 2. 85. Its been higher than that today. That, joe, seems to be the focus of attention that level about a fouryear high as it creeps apparently ever closer to 3 . Yes and i think the market right now has this paradigm shift where we are going from remember the new normal, everyone was talking about the new normal were going back to the normal and i think thats exactly what the markets right now are trying to understand. Were not really going to get any insight on fed chair powells feelings about the market until he goes before guess and the senate i think he does that february 28th and march 1st we need some certainty what is he fighting is he fighting what other fed chairs over the last couple of years have wanted to fight, which is deflation, or is he now fighting inflation we dont know what hes fighting thats why were seeing the tenyear at 2. 85, and yes, its going to 3 . Yesterday in final trades you said you expected stocks to go down another 3 it appears were in the midst of getting to where you thought we would go why did you say that just because of history im getting more gray hairs, theyve got to be worth going. Weve all seen corrections this is not the start of a bear market they dont end that quickly. If february 5th was the low, that would have been the shortest correction ive ever seen Lee Cooperman made good points, maybe were in an environment for etfs but corrections are normal, they happen about once a year and they take a few weeks to unwind. Youre a lot closer to the bottom than the start of this thing. If you want to start buying here, thats fine. Ive raised some cash, im probably going to wait a few more days before putting it to work but this is going to be a great buying opportunity weve got a little further to go is this what finding a bottom truly feels like, the ups and downs, the volatility, the violent mood swings as we said at the top of the show the last cycle, i could have answered you with more confidence but given everything were seeing with the volatility products but also with the algorithmic traders and the volume resulting from that, i cant tell you what i can tell you, though, is that the volatility genie is out of the bottle. Its not going to be put back. So its going to be more volatile than what weve seen in normal times i agree with joe completely. Now it is about rates. Thats been my concern thats why im short thats why i own the tpf but look, it is not the beginning of the bear market but as the market looks for the next catalyst, saying what could the next cap litalyst be. In the u. S. , youre through earnings its wellabsorbed that earnings are good its wellabsorbed that the tax plan is very beneficial. The next catalyst is powell. Yellen is passing the baton over to him with a more hawkish stance, that was a parting shot, than before. Theres concern the rates will move up. The tenyear is leading what the fed will do. It appears were right at, john, what is a critical level for the tenyear even gun lock, in an email, saying that 2. 85 is the level that in his words keeps kneecapping stocks were above it now we were more above it earlier. You saw as we crept above it, stocks started to come off as we crept above it, and as we had, you know, continued a flurry of activity around washington, d. C. , judge, we did see, to your point, down 470 or so for the dow jones, maybe were 100 points off that right now. I tend to agree with jim but i was somewhat heartened by the boe today, the bank of england, because that was a 90 vote to hold down rates. Your points on kearney are welltaken the exchequer over there says were going to remain really flexible i know those are three different things, the bank of england, kearney, and the exchequer in britain. Two of the three are pretty benign, in my opinion, the way i read it, steve so i think, are we close yes. Could we see a 10 correction here remember judge, which we virtually touched the other day, the 3 more than jim is talking about . Yes. But i dont know if we see it today or tomorrow or the next. Weve been lucky this week to have some big name market voices with us. Weve had carl icahn talking to us and to our viewers about what theyre seeing, Lee Cooperman yesterday. Implement i want to bring in the other one, vinnie viola, his company, virtu, his stock is going up thank you for joining us thank you, scott, always nice to speak to you. Do you think volatility is why your stock is having a tremendous day today obviously volumes and volatility dictate conditions under which a market maker has to provide price and function. I think its a tad more, doug and the management have done a beyond, beyond superlative job. Its a real hard, rigorous execution around the integratin of two trading modalities met with great market conditions, volume and volatility. Sure. And conditions, vinnie, i might add, you know, the typical investor watching our program right now is probably concerned about the level of volatility that weve been witnessing right what are your overall thoughts about whats taking place in the markets from a structural standpoint, from the market structural ecosystem, it could not have performed better the absorption of outlying volume levels in a high realized volatility environment, the Market Structure performed perfectly. One of the concepts that worked very well with a Circuit Breaker concept and the range limitup, limitdown concept, we didnt hit any, but the fact is the market was ready to pause if needed volatility of this nature on a notional and relative value should be expected when markets accelerate and upward move the way they did Joe Terranova is a technician, as i am. You could have more than easily expected the market to test what it did, its 50day moving average at least, and its 200day moving average the nature of the Price Movement might have been unsettling to some but to people who invest on fundamentals, nothing really has changed. I understand, i hear a lot about this magical 3 tenyear yield the amount of efficiency and creativity thats being brought into the economy is still not, i think, fully, fully discounted in stock performance, particularly stocks that are driven by technology and efficiencies around technology so i know that was kind of a wideranging answer. Market structure will perform flawlessly the average investor was able to access price at a brokerage rate never seen before, more efficient access to instant price at a lower rate, a lower brokerage charge, and quite frankly, we absorbed a lot of capital rotation flawlessly. We should be celebrating by the way, i would like, when the market rallies, for this electronic Market Structure to be celebrated as a more efficient way to access price and celebrate the upside i really take i take pause when the kneejerk reaction is to talk about Algorithmic Trading and quantified models as causing markets to go down the only thing that causes markets to go down is the reapplication of capital and risk and when markets rally quickly, in an accelerated fashion like they have over the past three months, you can expect a correction to what reflection of looking at charts will tell you are points of pause and recalculation. We might be coming into that i think what had people unsettled your point is welltaken, but i think what had people quite unsettled was the unwind of some of these vix product etns and the way that they unraveled, the velocity in which those trades did and it certainly didnt feel normal to some i mean, thats a there will be many academic studies, and we can do them very quickly that are very accurate, around depth of inside price levels and market volumes, both realtime and historical, against these products thats not kind of what we are prepared on this show to talk about. There will be studies, it will be understood. Doug makes a great point, doug has a phenomenal background and understands the depth and purpose of regulation when he talks about suitability. From our perspective, this part of the ecosystem, you get creative Financial Products when people have access to capital and access to redefining risk. So i mean, again, i dont im not really prepared to discuss, as you termed it, the unraveling of what i would refer to as the notional investment in those products at the time right but i think when we look back at this episode, we will see a relatively expected what i would call interim correction in a long term secular bull market. Thats how i would were looking at the dow down nearly 430 points, vinnie, as were having this conversation one of the most critical points that you made for our viewers, and its one that Lee Cooperman seemed to make yesterday as well, is that the fundamentals of this market are intact. The reason why stocks have rallied the way they have, now, maybe they got over their skis a bit, but the fundamentals that have spurred this rally in your mind are in place . They are so sound to what truly is a secular demonstration of capital thats understood against investment, and a period, quite frankly, of global macroeconomic integration. I mean, theres a reason why europe is experiencing now the beginning of growth rates. And you gentlemen made the point about the bank of england. Theres a quality of stasis when Capital Needs meet capital availability i would tell you that the 3 benchmark tenyear yield, if i had to guess, wouldnt cause a guy like david tepper to reallocate his portfolio these calculations when you look at them historically, theyre phenomenally efficient to the opportunities going forward. Were enjoying the benefits of it every day in so many parts of our lives. So thats a sort of pedestrian observation, as not only a person who has plied at the pipes of the market, the structure as it applies to changes. I want to make one consemment, m sorry, scott, when joe and i talk about markets, and scott, you and i talk about markets and exchanges, somebody called me and said, are you happy about virtus stock performance. Its not a question of being happy or sad virtu is a journey and an enterprise that has a very significant purpose in the marketplace. Im satisfied that its the nature of virtu as an enterprise thats becoming understood, what virtu is is a technology environment. Its a collection of platforms that integrate against the standards that people connect to to achieve price, discovery, and risk we complement the exchanges. Were like a very efficient version of the exchanges complemented by a or included in is a primary market maker very, very, very humbled by the performance of the virtu staff and dougs leadership in these matters. Were looking at your stock, its up 27 . One of the things viewers know you as is as the former chairman of the new york mercantile exchange. I know you as an excellent risk manager. We seem to be having this conversation about the volatility etns themselves why are we not talking about the behavior of the speculators, where theyve been seeking these risky investors, and theyre shorting volatility. You and i know that doesnt end well the question becomes, do you believe this changes the behavior of the last couple of years, where were shorting volatility, were going back to somewhat of what we saw in the late parts, 2007, 2008 high leverage does behavior change because of this absolutely. What happens, trading and the pursuit of profit follows a psychological cycle, right youre behavior, as long as its rewarded, is reinforced. And so i would joe, you did this every day of your life alongside of me. We managed the risk of individual traders and every individual trader accompanies his approach or her approach with his ego around trading. And we know that sometimes we confuse being on the right side of a nonunderstood trend with being smart. I would say that if i were an individual trader, i would completely redouble my study of these leveraged products and youre right, joe, theyve become speculative points in the market ecosystem and any time speculation is introduced around a product, the last person and the least informed person in is the most vulnerable to outsized losses. You saw it every day, joe, when you managed traders. Thats how i would describe it yes, a reevaluation of individual products across how they are regulated or monitored. We can look at individual traders today and see if their behavior is virtuous or nonvirtuous on a daily basis in the marketplace around a particular product thats whats going to happen around these etns and various closed environment trusts, what i call captive capital products. Its certainly, if nothing else after this episode, vinnie, you know, wherever the market settles out, if we put in a bottom, and we eventually obviously will, its forced the conversation about speculation, Risk Management, and all sorts of things like that as it pertains to investing in the market i cant thank you enough for taking the time to call in, and i know well talk to you soon. Thank you very much. Guys, youre doing a great job taking people through these nonunderstood times vinnie viola, the founder of virtu financial. Lets open this up about the kinds of things he talked about. So in terms of what he says about algo trading not being responsible for it, that its a reallocation of capital, algo is trade capital. Im not blaming them for the decline any more than im patting them on the back for the increase but they drove the market over its skis algo quantitative trading is almost 40 of volume in the market they may leverage six times, eight times, ten times, a hundred times, based on your strategy that exacerbates the moves, its only natural but ultimately its what their models say its the tail wagging the dog, in one respect doug seifer on cnbc, on monday he did a great job of explaining all this in a great way, these guys are brilliant can i point out real quick, these etfs that were lambasting here, these vix etfs had 8 billion in them. When we had the financial crisis, you had companies that had 200 billion, im talking about aig and citigroup, to name a couple, that needed backstops from the government. Were not in the ballpark where this upsets the system it had to affect it in a short term way but my point is, and i think youre agreeing with it, thats done if were going to worry about the tenyear rate, okay, fine. Were 2. 85, i dont think were going much past 3. 0 , which means were there, its done, lets not overworry about it lets look at it as an opportunity. Citi, which is a beneficiary of rising rates, that stock shouldnt be down. Its a buying opportunity. Good point. Lets get a check on rates quickly and some insight from certainly one of the best in the business, rick santelli, our own, in chicago at the cme rick, as i mentioned before, whatjeffrey gundblock has said the economy has reacted to that level of 2. 85, watching rates closely, obviously, and reacting to their every tick. You know, i dont know. I just dont find that 2. 85 is earth shattering i think whats earth shattering, as vincent said, the key here is access to capital and redefining risk where did the capital come from, judge . Who redefined the risk Central Banks. I just dont know how we get shocked. 16. 2 trillion still on the Central Banks world portfolios. Its the big elephant in the room of course rates have to go up, of course equities have to stretch and move lower, because we followed the Balance Sheets thats the issue weve seen innovation and Technology Like virtu maximize an artificial financial landscape and this is what happens. To me, pointing to big moves in Interest Rates, i just dont think youve seen anything yet maybe mr. Kearney is going to take his foot off the gas, but Central Banks have to mop up this mess. They cannot cave to the market here, otherwise the Balance Sheets will be around forever and the subsidy will be there forever. The subsidies have to come off of course but the issue, rick, as you know so why is 2. 85 important . Its going to go higher. Its the issue is theres no resistance here. You know this better than me. But the issue as i see it is, the fed has to be able to have the Steering Wheel and put the accelerator down when it wants it doesnt want to have the market dictate to it what it will do with rates and the speed with which you can do it you can only keep an artificial environment going for so long. It doesnt matter what the fed wants. You think the fed wants to see this volatility . And their Balance Sheets havent shrunk at all yet, literally, hardly taat all that is going to begin this is the stretching exercise before the big workout video im not saying stocks have to get decimated. Im saying the process of unwinding the biggest Market Global subsidy of civilized history is not going to be light. And pointing to little resistance levels is not the way to go. You need to be open minded how many times have we said 50 to 75 basis points at least distortion on the long end and we havent even taken on that distortion much less priced in some of the real Economic Growth thats occurred of late and that i think is the catalyst im going to interrupt you and thank you for joining us i want to point out the dow is just down a bit more than 500 points so the selling pressure has continued, even as you know, obviously theres money flowing into treasuries. You saw the yields coming down a bit, even as stocks were selling off. Sarat sethi, we havent heard from you yet you can look at the technicals, rick is right, go to 2. 85, go to 3. But its the fundamentals. When we look and talk to companies, we really havent heard anyone say that earnings are slowing down the Second Derivative is still improving. So fundamental things are still going well but youve got this supply demand going on on the technical side and for me, this is a buying opportunity. And i dont know if its going to go down another 5 or 10 . But there are a lot of good stocks that are being caused to sell off, stocks that shouldnt get hurt when rates go up, stocks that shouldnt get hurt if industrial activity does well were at 40 points above the s p low. We need to keep an eye on that if we retest the lower levels of the s p, joe i think you should. And i said the other day, i dont think this is over jim talking yesterday about a potential decline in the s p i think is very accurate listen, you know, you brought up before algos being so involved in the marketplace and yes, they are. But it seems as though we only focus on that when the market goes down. Let me remind you no, i said it goes up also. But tuesday afternoon at 2 45, when cramer said, okay, margin calls are over, the market is going to rally, 2 45 tuesday to 10 00, which encompasses a little more than 90 minutes of trading with the nyse open, the market rallied a thousand points. We werent jumping up and down and blaming the algos at that point. I just think were returning to a normal environment the vix, john, is still at 31, not so bad how many of you think, as we talk about a spending deal in d. C. , has to do with, we were talking about blowing the deficit from here to mars with the tax plan, then we were talking about infrastructure adding on top of that. Now youre talking about a larger than expected in many corners spending bill. Real fears about whats happening in the deficit, what role does that play . I dont think we can dismiss any potential that an investor might use as an excuse to get to the sidelines, judge i think we all know, though, that an awful lot of folks right now are in passive investments weve talked about it on the desk here for years, theyre in passive investments, not as many of them with jim and sarat im not saying you guys are not passive, but youre longer term investors. Youre picking stocks rather than picking an entire index to just say, im going to mimic the s p 500 or im going to be in something in etf that does that. Weve had huge amounts of calls since it was up 200 friday, judge. 500 on monday and tuesday and the reason for it is, when people need that hand holding or when they think they need a sarat or a jim, that happens when the stuff hits the fan. Not when anybody can pick any stock and it goes up so to joes point, the new normal is, its back to normal that means youre going to have to be pretty prudent, and youre probably going to seek help from some of the professionals rather than just throwing it at an etf. The other thing im thinking about, weve had on so many occasions the conversation of, well, this tax plan, the earnings power of the tax plan is not in the market, its not in the market, its not in the market then we went from that ever so quickly to, its too much in the market, the market went up too fast in january and thats the unwind were witnessing now. I think what youre seeing is, first of all, im not blaming algos. Im making an observation. You cant have 40 of the trading up from 14 i think its probably more. Right so lets say 40 with leverage thats getting you to the 40 im not blaming, im making an observation. Lets move on, we dont need to revisit that. Ima just want to make it cle. We got it if its one event like a missile from korea, that drives down, immediately recovers this is a bunch of things. Its not the 2. 85 yield on the bond its the rate that it got there. Of course its the speed. I say everybody has got to take the deep breath. You also have unbelievable access to etfs, index etfs, actually free. Those people, all the money that came in, lets get through the excess, from the tax plan. If im a company today and i know ive got cash overseas and a beneficial tax rate, im going to call option on buybacks. Theyre in the window still you say, okay, as a fundamental investor, im looking down the road, theres a call option on these stocks. If youre a good company and you dont have too much leverage, guess what youre going to do. Its very hard to point out some good things with the market down, but again, the credit markets are still okay gold, silver, not really that safe haven you would think it would be, the dollar as well i asked jon before, 31 on the vix doesnt seem so bad where we were on monday and tuesday no, not when we crossed 50, i agree. Is there any possibility, you guys been thinking at all about we saw what happened with, you know, the xib and some of these vix products. Is there any possibility that theres other stuff looming under the surface in products, leveraged products that we havent seen them rear their ugly head yet, that is just accentuating some of the fears were worried about . These double levered and triple levered etfs out there, and im not demonizing them, theyre a fact, like algo trading or High Frequency trading, theyre here. Its a reset every day, its a oneday move, then it resets the exposure is that one day they get that through a swap with whomever. We can talk about ten dig big investment banks they get that juice, if you will, from are one of those going to blow up its a oneday event if they do. In my mind, judge, to see the meltdown of a product like xiv is a bigger story. The only way you could hedge that was your ego. There was no way to hedge that product 100 theres plenty of ways to hedge some of these other products and thats the disconnect that the xiv unfortunately has. Specific to your point, there are a number of multimanager hedge funds that are very large. Weve got millenial, et cetera, et cetera. They use automatic stocks. For millenial, its 7 were waiting for the pop. Theyre out. Its been a great Risk Management tool. We dont know what part thats played in all this my suspicion is, not a lot you mean like poor selling . Poor selling. They say to the manager, youre out, you have to go to cash, youre done for the month, the day, whatever. The Dow Jones Industrial average is down by a touch more than 500 points. Its been down around 550 points the s p has moved only within about 40 points now from the lows, the most recent low. And that is 2,593. Keep your eye on those critical levels if in fact theres going to be a retest of the exact s p low like some have been calling for. Volatility has spiked. The trading has been so turbulent over the last many days yesterday was a 500point swing within the dow in and of itself. Joe, you wanted to make a point she was the one thing i would say, you asked the question, what do we want to look at as far as etfs and other levered products let me be clear, it is fine as of right now carl icahn has always mentioned in, the high yield market, youre always worried about the liquidity. If there is an issue at some point, you look at a product like the a2ig, you could see dislocation. Its fine as of this moment but i would watch it we asked Lee Cooperman, you remember, he was sanguine and he was buying stocks. He went through a litany of names that he used as an opportunity on the weakness. You guys even looking for more of a pullback, jim, you and sarat have been doing the same thing. Give me an idea of what youve been buying on this weakness im not being trite when i say this is buy low and sell high, okay so what have i sold recentlrecey nike i think its above where it should be trading in the mid to high 60s so i sold it im going to take that money and look at something thats a lot cheaper. Oil is still going down, not pulling the trigger yet on royal dutch shell. Thats a stock trading close to book value with a 5. 5 dividend yield. To me thats a nobrainer. Ive trimmed some decisions that have done fabulously qorvo, the stock was up 20 on the year i trimmed it the point i hear you making is youre looking to be more of a seller than a buyer. No, thats not what im saying i have sold recently in the last week i am going to put that money back to work, probably in the next week, okay . This is a correction this is not a bear market. There are stocks that are on sale i recently bought Electronic Arts and greenbrier. Those are two companies i have a half position in this is a great opportunity for me to fill out those positions i may not be doing it today because the price action is clearly to the downside, i dont need to catch a falling knife. But over the next week ill be filling out those positions. My list is, lets go down financials that are getting hurt, rates going up youve got bank of america, jpmorgan, first republican, and then you have prudential industrials, my cheap ones over there, stuff like gm, delta, which i really like. Then i go to technology and look at the Companies Getting sold off, google, oracle. Those are the type of companies i want to buy. Then i look at uncorrelated, companies that have nothing to do with cyclical growth but they have to do with their own endemic, which is health care. Bristolmyers, merck, celgene. Those are stocks that have come 5, 10 off their peaks and i want to own them stephanie link and i were talking about that stock, i could not believe where it opened the other day, around 101, 102, was able to pick the stock up very well the stock is now pulling back, for the viewers. If youre going to get this stock around 105, 106, given the momentum that they have, to me, forget about what the market is doing, thats a great opportunity. Is anybody doubting at all what vinnie viola and others have called the secular bull market is still intact not doubting that at all. I think youve got one leg left. This correction is the pause that refreshes and sets for the next leg up. At some point these higher Interest Rates and higher inflation rates are going to matter i think im being pretty clear that 3 on the tenyear isnt screaming. 3. 5 from there, that will scare me a little bit. The economy is growing globally, profits are growing. Sarat, you made that point crystal clear. Sentiment is dinged here but it will get back on its feet. Youre going to have reallocation, funds that are over equity. You have 70 , going to 80, thats going to happen this is happening in the short term longer term, weve got another year, year and a half of good earnings growth. Lets throw up shares of twitter, certainly one of the biggest winners today in the market, beating on the top and the bottom line, posted a profit for the First Time Ever as well. Anthony did e clemente joins us now. Welcome. Hi, scott a pretty darn good acquirement. Quarter this is a case where they were doing the right things. I give the Company Credit for engagement and that resulted in a big beat in the fourth quarter, as weve seen from other Internet Companies as well so your price target is 30, right . Yeah. Yeah what are we doing with that now . So heres the thing you know, i wish i were more aggressive on this one going into the print, obviously. But just because, you know, theyve put up this beat, i dont know if im chasing the stock here at 31 i mean, there are things that i want to see, which is an inflection positive and user growth so user growth is stagnant and while the engagement of users that are on the platform is improving, we want to see that, you know, return to growth the other thing is, there may have been a couple of idiosyncratic things in the fourth quarter, whether it be currency, tail winds in the fourth quarter, ad budget flushes, the seasonality and strength will that continue the cfo in our callback management is saying dont expect that and the sequential growth rates and revenue should really look more like two years ago. Theres the the anthony noto factor, can they replace that leadership and what does leadership look like going forward. If you look at twitter and snapchat the past few days, theyve beaten revenue by 70 or 80 million in the fourth quarter. And combined, those two companies have added in the last three days over 10 billion of market cap so i do think there are situations where there are short squeezes, there may be technical things going on. You guys have pointed out positioning in the marketplace i just dont know from a fundamental basis if i would be chasing twitter, having gone 20 to 31, again, giving them credit for whats working, but want to see better inflection on either. Sure. But the narrative has so wholly changed now, right this was a company that couldnt do anything right according to many investors over the last year the stock was seemingly left for dead the only hope was an acquisition. Now you have a completely different, it would seem, fundamental story to hang your hat on i could point to the revenues. I could point to the profits i could point to the margins and you also have to believe that noto wasnt going to leave and slam the door behind him on a mess scott, i think if you and i walk through the model, i think youre right and that revenue went from down 7 or 8 to plus 2. Were talking about plus 2 revenue. The market can tend to look at these things and get really binary about it, the story went from bad to fantastic. Thats really what the market is doing, thats what youre doing in your question as far as the narrative change i think the improvements are there, i do. And i give them credit for the improvements in engagement we see that with the dau to mau ratio, the relevance, the engagement with the timeline the product is better. I use twitter all the time, and i think some of the things theyre doing are good i think some of that groundwork, by the way, was laid by anthony noto when he was there hes no longer there so i give them credit. Its just a credit of magnitude, right . Should the stock be up this much, 20 to 31, on what are incremental improvements and good improvements but just not kind of mindblowing improvements, right . To me its just a question of the magnitude. We certainly take your point. 68 gain over one year for twitter. Anthony, thanks as always. What im trying to figure out, the four of you can help me, is, two weeks ago we were buying this stock because it was a potential takeout target, right . You would the premium in the stock. Now the stock is 24 billion do i now have to remove the m a premium from twitter because its less likely to get bought out . Thats the challenge right now, because now it seems as though the stock is going to keep appreciating its just going to rely strictly on fundamentals, less like m a unless you think the prospects of m a are improved even with the stocks gain, because the fundamental stories youre building the foundation of a deal on are seemingly better fair point. The price keeps going up. As you talk about that, i think about netflix which we perennially talk about as takeover bait. The price is so high nobody wants to pull the trigger. Scott brings up a good point, now the business looks better. You want to buy my house . Its a dump, i fixed it up now its like, i fixed up the kitchen, the bathrooms new, you know, new window treatments. It certainly makes it more attractive they had to do it anyway, probably its like a dog chasing its tail unlike your house, anybody that was talking to twitter about buying the company had full access under an nda, nondisclosure agreement, to this quarter. Remember, they just reported, so they knew what was going on. I get your point. When the whole salesforce chatter was going on, the narrative was the institutions stood up and said over my dead body do we want you to do this deal now i wonder if they look at that and say its a more viable acquisition because its a Better Company today i think there are a lot of desperate Media Companies out there looking for growth yeah, i think it just it more attractive as they see growth, they perk their ears up and take a look you have some unusual activity lets do it visa, how about that one as far as consumers and how theyre spending, theyre getting those paychecks now, the paychecks are bigger theyve been talking about that. Visa, we see unusual activity, upside calls its not a huge upside leap to make it there. Nonetheless, as you can see, june 120s actively bought them i bought them, judge, probably be there a month and a half. Pete, youre with us from minneapolis. Thank goodness were doing this, the alpha bowl on twitter was going to knock us all out if we didnt get this activity today you know how important this is youre especially feisty about this segment what do you have i got some iwm, russell 2000, scott. In january they were right, right, and right they were all bullish in january. The second we got to february, weve had seven different occasions where there have been put buying and very large put buying. That started with the iwm trading around 155 today, when we drop down to 149, aggressive buying once again the april 142 puts they started off with 5,000. I think its over 10,000, it might be more than that now. Aggressively bought. Now the i wiwm at the time, 1490 these puts were being bought for 255. Its worthwhile to keep an eye on it this im in this, it could be a hedge for me to the downside or if there is further downside or an acceleration to the downside, ill probably take this off pretty rapidly because this market, the swings that were having, and you mentioned it, scott, up and down, 500 points, thousandpoint, its unbelievable youre getting moves now in a day or two that used to take weeks. This is pretty incredible and youve got to be very nimble in this market. From a Broader Market standpoint, guys, you want to see the russell stabilize and start to rise if you think the market has bought them they lead down, they lead up thats where im looking in addition to the banks with sarat, which i agree with. The tax plan benefits the u. S. Most, u. S. Companies the most. So thats where you want to go but i have a question for these guys i was talking to a couple of investors yesterday, and for the first time they are seeing, im seeing it too, premium where if youre selling calls, you can really capture a lot of premium with this increased volatility are you seeing a lot more activity in that you are and pete can speak to it, because he now i missed it, but pete was buying it when all the rumor was that steve was going to resign and the premiums pumped up like crazy pete bought it then you got a huge premium for that thats the same sort of activity going on in the Broader Market right now, right, pete yeah, i think its a great opportunity. Steve, thats a very smart thing. When you see volatility get to these levels, is it sustainable for the market to trade at a 30plus volatility unlikely its sustainable for any length of time theres no reason we cant be in the 30s for a little while you have to use that as an opportunity to take advantage of the higher volatility when youre buying a stock that you think is finally tied, you feel comfortable, now youve got that extra juice, that extra premium to the upside that you can sell some of that premium if youre right and the stock starts to move higher, likely the market is moving higher. That implied volatility of those options, that will come out almost immediately and give you a great opportunity. Actually it cheapens where you bought the stock and gives you a little bit of comfort to the downside when you get that much premium. Back to the iwm for one second, yesterday you saw 1. 27 billion flow into that etf theres 41 billion in the etf thats 3 of an increase thats the biggest move weve seen in four months. Were talking about puts, you have to wonder, you see the move to the downside today, do people feel like, oops, were wrong, we have to go out and seek that protection but that is a staggering move into the etf that they had yesterday. I sold my iwm, which is the russ recall and my iusg, u. S. Focused, a few days ago you have to take some market risk off were looking at crude oil, we havent talked about about that yet, down 1 today. Jackie deangelis is standing by to take us through whats happening there, jackie. Thats right, good afternoon, scott. Crude oil now off its session lows crude on pace for its worst week since last may anthony rosanti, whats your take reporter production in the u. S. , 10 million a day, on its way to 11, the dollar is stronger right now crude just broke through some key support level. I think its on its way to 5,830. Scott nations, we did test 60 today, if we get that five handle, are we going down . Reporter i do think we are weve been in this channel since the middle of last summer. Were now at the bottom of that channel. Earlier in the day we were below the 50day moving average for the First Time Since august. Gris talks about Domestic Production we also know there are african oil fields coming on line later this year. So theres plenty of supply. The question now becomes, how much fortitude does opec and the saudis in particular have in controlling the crisis thanks, guys. On the live show today were joined by Christina Hooper with invesco. Shell tell us why this pullback isnt a oneoff event. Plus Michael Dudas will break down an anomaly in the gold market thank you so much, jackie if you happen to be tuning in right now, i call your attention to the down, down more than 2 , a loss of more than 525 points as we speak. Watching the s p closely as well, 2,632, a near 2 decline as well. Some technical damage being done once again in the market today the s p has broken below its 100day moving average so were watching a whole bunch of different factors, not withstanding whats happening in the bond market, the tenyear note yield had ticked higher, 288. Youre looking at fouryear highs. That was putting pressure on stocks then even as bond yields started to decline, stock prices were going down more as well, perhaps people seeking a little bit of that safety trade today. Thats currently where we stand. Well step away for two minutes, and well be back right after this see thats funny, i thought you traded options. Im not really a wall street guy. Whats the hesitation . Eh, it just feels too complicated, you know . Well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. Jj, will you break it down for this gentleman . Hey, ian. You know, at Td Ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until youre comfortable. I could be up for that. Thats taking options trading from wall st. To main st. Hey guys, wanna play some pool . Eh, im not really a pool guy. Whats the hesitation . Its just complicated. Stepbystep options trading support from Td Ameritrade think has exposure to energyfund infrastructure mlps . Think again. Its time to shake up your lineup. The alerian mlp etf can diversify your equity portfolio and add potential income. Bring amlp into the game. Before investing, consider the Funds Investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Read the prospectus carefully at alpsfunds. Com amlp all right. We are back. Theres your market picture this hour Dow Jones Industrial average is down by 558 points we mentioned just before the break the s p 500 has once again broken below its 100day moving average. For all you technicians out there who continue to watch that aspect of the market, we should also point out that 339 companies, thanks to our markets desk, pointing out to us that 339 companies in the s p are at correction levels or better. 82 of those are at bear market levels to give you an idea of some of the declines we are talking about off of their alltime highs, range resources is down almost 62 we know about the problems that have existed at General Electric and what those shares have done. More than 50 away from there. Chipotles on that list. As is under armour and so many other companies, guys, that we keep our eyes on it just gives you an idea of the kind of damage, further damage in some of these cases as in ge has been done. Range resources was at 100 just 2 years ago, 2 1 2 years ago. Its at 13. One of the triggers to the market is the rapid rise in the 10year, but when that happens, when the market trades down, then thats a safety trade pushing down yields, so you start the cycle over again which is in some respects why some people think that ritz arent going to go to the moon youre still going to have, whether its demographics or people seeking safety, youre still going to have rates low. But i said this at the top of the show youre not going to have visible on what jay powell sees as the enemy, inflation or deflation, until february 28th, march 1st and he gets before congress and the senate the other day i said i believe the bubble in passive investing is bursting. A lot of people came back with a lot of negative comments surrounding that complacency is certainly by far coming out of the marketplace right now i remember so clearly im sorry to interrupt you as youre making that point, i remember jeffrey gunlock at the sone conference saying he thought the market was going to run up through the summer and what was driving it in part was a bubble in passive investing. And when that started to unwind itself, thats when you were going to have a big problem with the stock market and maybe that is in part what were witnessing now, not the least of which, to his other point that he made to us out in los angeles in december, was that rates were going to start moving higher and that was going to start pushing let me just finish the point. The complacency that comes along with passive investing and the negative feedback that ive gotten about those comments tells me that this isnt over. Because were just saying okay, good economy, fundamentals are strong whats not over right now is at least forthis day the selling. Dows down by more than 600 points at this moment, sitting at 24,277. A couple of things here first off, jay powell, you talked about that. There is a history of the stock market testing a new incoming fed chief. They want to see what his response to this is going to be. When he speaks, does he Say Something soothing to the market and put in the powell put the way there was the greenspan put, the bernanke put, et cetera. Number two, it looks very ugly right now and to the people who are watching i understand this doesnt feel good. This is what a correction feels like when you get close to the bottom it feels like something worse is going to happen. Youve got to understand, that is a normal response let this play out. The fundamentals of the economy and the profit picture ill tell you what. Those verbal puts, if you want to call them, that lets just say, theyre getting fewer and fewer. Right . Those draghi doing whatever it takes moments. These are actions that matter more than words. Why should they still be there . This is what a normal marketplace is the economys getting better, Global Growth is good. Im not saying it should or should not im saying it will i dont think it will be. We focused too many on the points 649 points its 2. 5 . Its not the end of the world. Right . Weve seen the markets go up 2 1 2 , everybody sits back says okay, thats great, im so happy, the markets are supposed to be there. Markets go up, markets go down we should have known when were seeing these nonsensical things on twitter where you know, people are showing off their 401 k statements and putting that out there as evidence of how much the market has gone up. I host a panel steve, you were at a Panel Conversation that i did not even two weeks ago where everybody on the panel across different Asset Classes and walks of Financial Life were bullish. When i asked questions like are we too bullish, are we not bullish enough, whats the deal, you had a scenario painted by a person from the political spectrum who looks at markets relative to, that bonds, everything else, saying that look, the earnings Power Private equity were sitting on piles and piles of cash looking to deploy it, that the situation was so good and it was only going to get better and it was still underappreciated now, that very well may be true. But man, does it feel like weve got to as we talk a lot about the velocity part, scott, when we see things moving as fast as they are, to vincent violas comments at the top of the show, very accurate, the machines are just doing what human beings would do theyre just doing it much faster these arent something that are not part of the market theyre part of the market they are basically what makes the market run right now so we just went from a 1. 2 decline in the s p to now a 2. 3 decline. So that just means in vix terms, judge, from a 21 to a 36 so when joe said top of the show 31 doesnt feel so bad, does it, doc . And i said yeah, and its really only justifying a 21 now it just popped to a 36 thats not reflected in the real market yet but thats the kind of panic that people have ahead of whether or not the budget deal gets passed or whether or not somebody blinks and they say no, no mas to johns point, mark fisher and i spoke last night the market has grown accustomed over the last couple of years to these quick price corrections. To your point. Two days, price corrects, were done 1 1 2 . Normal markets correct over the course of 100 to 150 trading days this time we you could get more on the down side. To your point of passive, its geg to hurt on the down side too because its just easier to sell your index fund than it is to buy it youre not looking at stock specifics for investors. If the Retail Investor goes in there and just goes to their 401 k and starts selling the s p, thats going to cause even more down side because the market values start coming down on those doc well, i think this kind of move right now that were seeing, judge, the down 600 ahead of a vote by the congress on this governmental shutdown, which i do believe will be avoided, i think that could be a turning point as well. But were gettingvery close with this kind of surge in volatility, like i said. The actual right now is 36 not the vix that youre looking at but the vix that im looking at if i were to do an intraday indicative value for it, is 36 thats close to those kinds of panic numbers. Thats what you want to see. Well, theyre spending money at least talking about it like drunken sailors down in d. C. And that is potentially putting pressure on rates. Its changing the conversation from what are we doing about spending, wheres the deficit going . That in and of itself has a dramatic impact potentially on Interest Rates and how the fed is going to manage that entire situation and perhaps a little more active than people were expecting. And it feeds on itself because the fed is going to be issuing a lot of fiveyear paper and the rates will be much higher they issue at so its not allowing them to repair the Balance Sheet as much as they would. Increases the obligations. So look, theres no doubt rates are going higher the point is, again, how quickly they get there and at what point they choke off the economy to me its not going to be like it used to be, where above 5 was restrictive. I think that its lower now because weve reset so much lower. Why do you have people like icahn and others saying theyve never seen this level of volatility before . Speed all about it but why are we witnessing this because of monday. Why is it like this im sorry but the answer is very simple. Because of monday. Because of the you wind specifically of these inverse volatility funds where you had the vix go from whatever it was, 19 to 50 that sort of move is unprecedented. That usually takes a few days. Now, jon, you and your brother can talk about this more but that was not necessarily a reflection of fear in the market it was a reflection of technical issues with those products which carl icahn is right in saying they are damaging, they are trouble. Lee said the same thing. 30 seconds left markets take the escalator up over the course of many years and the elevator down. Its become free to trade as vinnie said, its free to trade. Buy s p from vanguard, from fidelity free no commissions do you want to have a last thought . I think, look, you stay if youre invested, make sure you are within your allocation but right now fear factor, dont run. Dow jones is down by nearly 600 points as we speak power lunch is going to pick up that story, exactly whats happening in the market, minute to minute right now. Yes, we will, scott. And as you said, happening now, another wild day for your monday and another big selloff on the street hello, everybody welcome to power lunch. The dow off about 2,000 days from its january 26 record high. The s p 500 and nasdaq down for the seventh time in nine days. The s p breaking its 100day moving average with todays drop the dow and s p once again are negative now for the year. The techheavy nasdaq only slightly positive. Michelle im Michelle Carusocabrera thank you, brian lets drill down into the