Category 5 storm still lets move on to another update for those of you in florida. Added to the hurricane watch what this means is hurricane conditions could move into your area within the next 48 hours. A lot of you are preparing right now. If you havent started, this is the time to do so. Again, as of noon we are adding to the hurricane watch there has been some updates to the track. Not much slightly off to the east but still the cone of uncertainty through the entire state of florida. I dont want you to focus on track. I want to show you why because if youre anywhere in florida, youre saying, oh, you know, i dont see the ocean, you could still be impacted by the storm with tropical force storm winds. Check this out lets say Hurricane Irma does not make landfall but scoots along the coast, still, Tropical Storm winds could extend 185 miles across that would take up the entire state of florida Everyone Needs to make sure theyre taking the proper precaution and keep an eye on this well update you with any of the information coming in. Thank you so much, Kaylee Dionne to the tropp in disney shares plummeting on comments made by bob iger our Julia Boorstin about what he has said that has unnerved investors. Disney stocks dipping 3 after bob iger made comments he warned that earnings in the fiscal year that ends at the end of september would fall short of analysts expectations. I think you have to look at the year as being roughly in line with an eps basis what we delivered in fiscal 16. Now last years earnings were 5. 72 per share. Thats 16 cents lower than analysts consensus expectations for this year according to tom son reuters. As theres only one quarter left, that implies a disappointing Fourth Quarter indicating that fiscal Fourth Quarter earnings will be 1. 09 per share. Now iger attributed the expected short fall to a number of reasons, growth in cost for nba rights for espn, the lack of a big star wars movie. Rogue 1 was not as big as the force awakens and the cost in bam tech theyre seeing some impact from Hurricane Irma some cancellations at the orlando park theyve had to cancel three cruises and shorten some others. Certainly a stock to watch. Back over to you. With us for the hour we have joe taranova, pete and john nagerian we want to follow with rich greenfield rich, are you with us . Yeah, thanks for having me. I know youre obviously negative on the name you have been sometime maybe the only sell on the street here, but how surprising is this announcement today from mr. Iger at the Media Conference look, i think its just an admission that the Media Industry is getting even more challenging and that even disney cant avoid those challenges when you look at the issues facing the Cable Network industry, loss of subscribers from cord cutting, the pressures on advertising look, they just spent 4 they bought bam tech, streaming infrastructure platform for your viewers. They spent 2 point be point 6 billion buying what is a moneylosing platform. When they say greater costs, its because theyre going to consolidate losses from this streaming platform its going to be much more costly than investors realize. Is this an indication that things are worse than we expected or due to onetime events irma obviously is having an impact on the parks. They have the nba rights deal and some of the bam Tech Acquisition costs that you just mentioned. Look theyve gn tabeen tag about it for three years everyone has been modeling about the nba ramping costs since they signed it years ago. Even attributing the pressure is really surprising. I think the question we all need to be asking is what is disneys future Growth Prospects look like as they transition to a direct consumer company. Launching disney over the top, launching espn, these are going to be very expensive endeavors as they build out the tech and resources to do this they talk about adding in lucas and marvell content when they launch in late 2019. The cost of this is going to be much, much bigger. Theyre talking about doing movies, four to five movies are only going to come out on this service. Thats going to cost a lot of money. Are you positive on the disney app if not, why . Positive, disney needs to create a direct to consumer experience, no doubt about it. Putting in marvell and lucas films means a lot. They should be putting in abc. They should be getting out of the hulu venture they shouldnt be launching a separate espn product. That should be part of it. It should be everything disney not the silos theyre trying to create when you think of netflix, the reason its so successful is its a broad, diverse array of conte content. They cant have marvell tv shows showing up on the abc network flowing to hulu while theyre trying to do marvell for their over the top Service Going to be very confusing to consumers. The question is how do you build a Robust Service theyre not starting this until late 19. What about a big deal do they need to do Something Big . We think so when we look at who they should be buying, we think they should diversify away from the cable industry by buying activision. They ought to get a business like spotify and build video they hired an executive in Courtney Holt and they should buy twitter. Sportscenter is twitter. When you want to know whats happening in sports, you should turn to twitter. Lets get to the guys on the desk pete, youre the the one push back that i have is the bam tech deal what dont they theyre suggesting they over paid. Over paid he talks about going on over years thats going to be a big cost for them. The idea is to get themselves positioned for streaming this puts them in a position for streaming. I understand costs, we all understand the nba, dont have a star wars feature. I think its more of a move to play defense rather than a move that really suggests offense. Took them too long to get into this. Thats totally something id have to agree on. Like a hail mary. For you, football, hail mary rather than some big but it was something that had to be done i think by disney were they late yes, they were absolutely late thats on iger a gentleman we talk about on the show as one of the great ceos out there. This is something that i think slipped underneath him, as netflix has grown, if youre not going to buy it, you have to compete it it took them this long. Do they need to do a big deal any big deal. The question is is netflix the only big buy out there for them im not sure what activision does for them. Netflix would be the target. Spotify, netflix, twitter. I dont know if twitter is going to move the needle like were talking about. I think netflix has to be the target but is that too late . I mean hes got to do something. Look, youre now talking about the first year since 2009 that the company is not going to give the investor which theyve always had which is Revenue Growth this is the first year since 09 comes in at 55 billion like last year you have your first year of negative Revenue Growth. Thats not what you expect out of disney. Look, the content business is going to be tough for the foreseeable future it used to be thestudios competing for properties and they would tie it to some kind of roi i read that amazon and apple are in the bidding for james bond. You can pay any amount of money. Compete with Warner Brothers and mgm, its a joke youre talking about companies that have 100 billion, 200 billion. Well pay anything, we dont care if thats where the game is going look at cbs getting hammered what is it iger made these comments at a conference, almost every media stock. I like disney i want to buy it im not going to run out and buy it today its not out 20 points i think its probably a better buy than a short but i wouldnt be buying this to expect it ramping on a star wars movie the whole business got a lot more complicated in the last few years. Heres the issue with netflix, mark cap 1 7 billion. Disney is 150 billion. Shareholders will flip out. You talk about diluted acquisitions would be crazy. In most businesses, theyre able to pressure their suppliers to lower their costs. Here you have a couple of irrational buyers competing with the content as you point out that puts the economics upside down hes a great ceo, phenomenal company, but its just not their time. Lets get to amazon our next guest becoming a near term bull putting a 1300 price target tom portz, welcome. Thanks for having me on. Pretty glowing note, 1300 bucks for 12 to 18 bucks why . How does it get there . When i look at amazon now i think theyre ushering in bricks and clays. It gave them 460 excellent store fronts and a severe advancement in their grocery effort. To me this was an Ecommerce Company thats adding on physical scoretores. They had technology to build stores and were trying to overlay ecommerce. Thats basically the story for amazon over the next 12 to 18 months and five years. Its a Margin Expansion story as well. Thats sort of at the heart of the issue for you. Yes youre looking for everyone knows the Margin Expansion from aws. 51 of units sold in the Second Quarter were third party the First Time Ever was more than 50 long time that ramps to 75 . Their Third Party Retail second. To the extent they have larger percentage of units coming from third party, thats a big story. 1800 bucks over five years sounds pretty good until you look at a note from a guy at mkm today who says 3400 bucks. 3400 bucks in seven to eight years. This definitely has the potential to be an open ended growth story for amazon. The next legs are grocery via whole foods, International Expansion in india and i expect theyll do more in apparel perhaps theyll make an acquisition to make a physical store base as well. No risks at all to this story . Surely theres got to be something out there that would worry you . Theres risks to every stock. For amazon its slower growth. You have more significant competition from google and mieft. Thats the primary determinant secondarily, it may be concerns on near term profitability you had a great conversation on disney and on content costs so thats been a huge area of investment for amazon. To the extent profits may be lower than expected on incremental content spend, thats possible. That can be a risk near term for the shares. We appreciate your time thanks for coming on. My pleasure. Lets trade this one. Thats his risk on aws, thats happening now because you have the customers of aws and amazon that compete with them on the sale basis, cloud basis. Like walmart, if you continue to, you know were taking our servers off. Any of our suppliers, if you continue to use aws rather than go microsoft or google, were not doing business with you. Doc, we havent heard from you . I was bullish on the stock. I dont own it seems like its in a bit of a no mans land. These targets seem outrageous to you, 1300 bucks, 12 to 18 months its harder to look out i am doubtful id give them 30 chance im not as dedicated to his numbers, 1300 in 12 to 18 months i think is a reach. Josh . So amazon has done a pretty good job at hanging on to its up trend even though its pulled back probably the biggest pull back from the fangs, maybe google and amazon the buyers came in that doesnt mean youre getting a launch pad back over 1075. This has been the type of stock that when it moves it tends to make a big move all at once. They have so many levers to pull you can never really count amazon out you can never say, all right, we actually understand the story because they just come up with something new it seems like every couple of quarters i would want to bet against it i dont currently own it. I have no clue where amazon is going now to joshs point, pull back significantly. From here it probably goes sideways not foe tussing on the stock . Not necessarily why not too much rhetoric out of washington nothing sustainable in that tweet, but i think the possibility is there for some rhetoric out of washington, d. C. That disrupts the longer term story . Who knows what comes out of washington. Not a trump tweet they went after microsoft for anticompetitive practices. I wish i bought it then. Europe is doing it, too i dont know that it kills the company. I think the holes you can poke right now in amazon, aws. If you look over the last three years its the lowest growth theyve had in the last few years in aws they still own the space. Pete absolutely. If you look at amazon, where do they get any margins not in ecommerce not in the grocery world we know what they have to spend in not just advertising but delivery aws is what theyre leaning on. Lets move to another big story. That is ge under pressure after jpmorgan reiterated its underweight on the stock steve, welcome to halftime. How is it going this is a negative note it its worse than we think 2 per earnings past last years price is not doable we put out a note a couple of days ago that said 1. 30 is the right earnings base. The street is 1. 70 some are waking up to it. This note says its worse than weve been hearing weve been hearing from our clients and there are other brokers that use my name saying im too negative is the reason to buy the stock what were saying is after doing high level reset, talking to management a bit that we think its lower than we are which is obviously substantially below where consensus is. Youre looking at stock we view as a floor with something in the high tense as an investable fair value. Yeah, sure. My price targets 22. Kind of splits the difference there. How we get there is 24 is a 4 dividend yield thats not worth much if you cant pay your dividend with ongoing cash flow. Thats been our call the 2 in earnings is a dollar versus a 90 cent dividend. The pan ratio is so high that people will wake up to the dividend and 4 yield not being realistic. 20 times that dollar gets you to around 20 bucks. Thats how we get there. We think the news over the next probably month and a half is going to be that negative. Steven, its josh brown lets say youre the cfo sitting with the new ceo, sitting with the board. Talking about strategy whats the worse thing this Management Team can do over the next year . Whats the wrong move . Whats the thing investors should worry about them doing wrong. From a Strategic Perspective . Sure, why not. I dont think you want to do anything too rash. I think a breakup at kind of fire sale prices is probably not the right move i think you have to reset the b bar, get people calibrated around a real number and grow from there 40 of their market is by fossilized fuel markets. We believe they face tremendous secular challenge. The growth level is not that great. They have no cash to compound, spend, enhance that growth rate. So youre left with a blocking and tackling dynamic. You dont want them to get out of oil and gas because the valuation is not going to be great . They can get out of oil and gas, thats fine we know what the price of baker hughes ge right now so its already reflected in the sum of the parts which gets you 19 bucks. I dont think that makes a difference in the broader the s thesis. Steve, good to have you on the show we appreciate it. Thanks a lot. You guys have theyve been buying puts in this thing for the last week, judge. Buying them like this was in the eye of the hurricane i mean, they are coming after General Electric theyre buying march 25 puts, huge numbers one big block like that. Theyre also buying september so they think this thing is just sliding lower and going si significantly under. He throws a wrench in the whole kitchen sink idea. Not even close yeah. I havent liked it, i havent liked it for years still dont like it. You have a new ceo thats not really new, been there for a while. I think you need their board and a fresh look at the whole company. This thing just looks awful just when you thought there couldnt be anymore news on a dow component. There is dom chu has a market flash whats going on with shares of vz vz, still down but maybe a little bit of hope verizon has now increased its quarterly plans to their dividend yield at shy of 5 percent pirs verizon for them, this is the 1 1th Straight Year with a Quarterly Dividend increase. Weigh would point out, scott, gang, shares of verizon down 13, 14 . Already a laggard. Thanks so much. Dom chu with that news were just Getting Started heres what else is coming up on halftime. Rate and the dollar really moving today are these two major factors in the global factory about to move u. S. Stocks . Plus, the man known as wall streets man the commodity and stocks likely to move when irma hits the u. S hes also warning we could see a big surprise the Halftime Report with scott wapner and the traders is back in two minutes not rebalancing your portfolio. Pursuing your passion, not reacting to market downturns. Focused on what you love, not how your money will last through retirement. Let us help you with those decisions, and get on with your life. We make it easier to plan for retirement with day one target date funds from prudential. Look forward to your 401k plan. All right. Welcome back to the Halftime Report. We are watching Interest Rates falling and hitting a low not seen since november 10th after a report from axios saying a group of powerful House Republicans opposed President Trumps debt ceiling deal john harwood joining us from washington not as easy as maybe we thought this was going to be, john. No, although i dont think people on the right are going to be able to stop this now this is not the Freedom Caucus, this is the study committee. Different group, not as far right. The Freedom Caucus itself had the leader, mark menos, criticize the deal but hasnt come out vociferously against it although heritage action, for example, have come out they say theyre going to fight it they dont think that they can stop it because if youve got the speaker and the leader, Mitch Mcconnell on board and prepared to vote for it, which they are, its going to be difficult to vote for them it will be an interesting couple of days. Yeah. This is an Influential Group from what i saw in the story, talking about more than 150 House Republicans. Yes, they are influential its a big chunk of the caucus of course, its not necessarily the case that everyone in the caucus votes the way that the leadership of the caucus says or that the groups position is i do expect at the end of the day that they will get 218 votes to pass this in the house, but the more you have the Republican Base consumed with intramural fighting, the more difficult it gets to do a range of things, including tax reform. John, thanks so much. Maybe the market believes this is going to happen theres not much reaction in stock today. The dollar index is also on the move today falling to its lowest level since january of 2015. Joining us now on the phone for more on that is paul richards. Hes the president of medley global advisors. Paul, dollar is getting bludgeoned how low is it going to go . Dollar is getting bludgeoned. Liquidated you can say. The way i look at this one, scott, this is what we were discussing yesterday its all about the trump train and the trump train is effectively tax reform that debt ceiling bill that was done yesterday, the dollar has reacted to it in a way that the stocks have not reacted but they possibly need to the issue for the market and the issue that i have here is that theyre basically setting us up for a mid december showdown including debt ceiling, budget and tax reform it may be too much for the republicans to take on with this in play, the dollar has an issue poor old draghi walks in there the euro is up and the dollar is down he had no bullet its a very difficult situation. Im glad you went there thats where i wanted to go. Is he out of bullets at some point he has to get pretty concerned about the strength in the euro. Ill tell you what hes concerned about. For the first time in over ten years the ecb specifically mentioned their currency in their communication. They never do that i think it is a real factor. Hes this is not benign neglect, but i think theyre buying time. They want to see what happens with washington. Theyve already pushed out a decision in terms of what they want to do on the qe purchases in late october. Theyve 13specifically told us theyre not going to touch Interest Rates so its not benign neglect whenever you get a bank doing something in a communique, they do that. It probably means the euro sits around 120 nervously, but its a difficult buy in this environment when you have a central bank watching it closely. Paul, thanks. Appreciate it. Any time. I dont love this out of bullets talk i think, look, its not that you want Central Banks talking about their own currency every day, et cetera, but lets just give like a little bit of credit weve finally for the First Time Since 2010 have a syncronous thing happening in Earnings Growth and economics 35 countries in the oecd index all growing at the same time, 33 of them accelerating their growth rate this year over last year so you want to look at spikes in the euro, you want to look at talks about stopping stimulus. Its all fine. Its not that theyre going to manage it perfectly. All country world index as i am talking, new all time high, not 52 week, five year, eight year, alltime high. I think thats the big picture that we should really be focused on not every single meeting when draghi opens his mouth. Lets move to another media stock that is on the move. Julia boorstin has the market flash for us. Scott, thats right comcast shares declining, now down about 5. 5 . An executive from comcast speaking and we just heard from bob iger comcast saying Hurricane Harvey as well as competition is going to cause the company to lose between 100,000, 150,000 video subscribers in the Third Quarter. They call this the most competitive in recent history. Its worth noting weve seen the launch of a number of new tv bundles in the Third Quarter they also say comcast will hit the financial numbers in the quarter. Theyve also announced theyre going to expand their xfinity instant streaming Service Across the footprint at the end of the quarter. Now we see the shares trading down 5. 8 . Scott, back over to you. Tough day in media stocks well keep our eye on that. Unusual activity in the Options Market is coming up next a double dose with the najerians. Well fwiebd oind out in a minu. The dow is off by 37 points. Theres a look, visa is leading the way. It is disney down more than 3 at the bottom halftime is back after this. Ah the moon belongs to everyone the best things in life theyre free stars belong to everyone they cling there for you and for me flowers in spring the robins that sing the sunbeams that shine theyre yours and their mine love can come to everyone the best things in life theyre free were drowning in information. Where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters . The stakes are so high, your finances, your future. How do you solve this . You dont. You partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. Morgan stanley. You myour joints. Thing for your heart. Or your digestion. So why wouldnt you take something for the most important part of you. Your brain. With an ingredient originally found in jellyfish, prevagen is now the number one selling brain Health Supplement in drug stores nationwide. Prevagen. The name to remember. I thyou never got the brakes looked at . L. Oh yeah. No. At cognizant, were helping todays leading manufacturers make things that think and do automatically. Imagine that, a world of new Digital Products and services all working together for you. Can i borrow the car when its back . Get ready, because were helping leading companies see it and see it throughwith digital. Welcome back were showing you shares of apple which have taken a noticeable drop lower. The wall street journal dropping a story that the new iphone has been plagued by production glitches early in the manufacturing process. Im quoting from the story that according to people familiar with the situation could result in extended supply short falls and shipping delays when customers start ordering that device later in the month its something to be sort of concerned about here, right . This is something thats happened to apple how many times in the past . Weve heard something about a glitch. All it means is you see more guys dressed up in star wars costumes outside the store. The lines will be even longer chewbacca it doesnt really its going to create the more you know, the scarcity zblekt yeah. So they get better headlines. Ive got it but it also could create lower numbers in the holidays. I doubt it. I doubt it. We see it every single time. They sold a billion and a half phones. This is what tim cook does. This is his pedigree in terms of supply line. This is his valley. That doesnt mean buy it today. You let it slide a little bit, maybe you pick it up at 1. 57, 1. 58. If it slides off. Was it muenster yesterday, a couple of days ago. Yes, two days ago, 10 . 10 drop, right yeah. Yeah yeah because of an historical tailoff that happened after they launched. Jon explained it yesterday, i know he and i disagree the only thing i would be suspicious about is laying out 1,000 bucks for this phone. The good news is you dont have to because of the way they what jon explained thats a nonissue. I really dont believe that. I found the glitch in an apple phone once it was a u2 album. We have reached out to apple for a comment. Weve yet to hear back and the journal story is noting that theyve reached out to apple and foxcon which both declined to comment on the story the wall street reporting of production glitches early in the production process of the iphone that is the direct result in the stock price down by 1 2 of 1 . Lets head over to tyler mathisen. It is all about the storm at this hour. Hurricane watch now in effect for parts of south florida the u. S. Hurricane center in miami said a watch has been in effect for the florida keys from Jupiter Inlet south ward to the peninsula to bonita beach. Residents in miami preparing for the worst. Motorists waiting at a gas station. Others waiting to get into a home depot there they want to get supply toss board up their homes and so forth. Others have begun by evacuating driving out of the city to the north and west meantime, irma has blacked out much of puerto rico. More than half the island without power leaving 900,000 people in the dark nearly 50,000 without Water Services the islands Public Power Company warns that some areas could be left without power for 4 to 6 months. France, meantime, flying in water, emergency rations and rescue teams to french terry tore ris in the caribbean. Some 200 french soldiers and rescuers and medics flew to guadalupe. At least ten people there killed, thousands left homeless across the northern caribbean. Thats the cnbc news update at this hour. Scott, back to you. Ty, thanks so much. Lets get to our unusual options activity doc, what do you have first . Judge, this is a very shortterm trade in fact, its only going to be about a day. It is trip adviser trip they werent buying out further than that. So in trip adviser there was a rumor that jana might be stepping in here could be any activists or could be nothing anyway, they bought a lot of calls really quick they were buying the 45 calls in trip adviser, theyre buying the 45. 50 calls. Theyve pushed the stock up as they bought those calls because people have to hedge, of course. The 45 calls trading in the 1. 50 range on the highs the other, the 45s moved up from about 30 cents to about 85 cents. So watch this one. Very short term trade. Deep end of the pool, not for everybody. Ive got you. Biotech, pete, is that your play today . Yeah, im going with gilead, scott. This is an incredible trade. They made that acquisition of kite that has exploded since that time the options have been very active since early august all the way into that buy. Everyones been anticipating are they going to buy. 12 million. Theyve eclipsed that number in market cap in terms of how fast this stock has been moving to the up side. Today was the september 82 1 2 calls. They started with 4400 of those buying those around 1 point be point 50 to 1. 80 theyve continued to buy those throughout the session approaching 10,000. Really, really aggressive. Even as the stock is moving. Started stock was trading around 83. 60. That stock is well higher. Do you want to chase it . Probably not also buying october 85 calls very aggressively. So people seem to love whats happening and they love that acquisition. You take a look at the ibp, the performance there, particularly this name, this is an area you want to be right now. Its up over 12 bucks since they announced the deal for kipe you look at that, youre pushing towards 20 billion market cap dropped to the bottom line for these guys with a 12 billion acquisition. Yeah. Yeah incredible. Come on back over. Thank you. Jon and pete nagerian. Restoration hardware, theyre all up next in the blitz now to Michelle Carusocabrera with a look at whats coming up on power lunch. Tracking Hurricane Irma the deadly category 4 storm is getting close to florida its wrath already felt in the caribbean, puerto rico one tiny island literally flattened. We will track it for you Many Airlines canceling flights . Should the carriers do that . Can they do more and President Trump set to hold a News Conference just a day after the supplies deal with democrats on the debt ceiling. We will carry it live. Halftime report is back after this all right. We are back on the Halftime Report. Want to show you once again shares of apple dropping suddenly on a wall street journal report that the new iphone has been plagued by production glitches early in the manufacturing process. Weve reached out to apple we have not heard back asking for comment yet. There is the stock, which is also, by the way, helped to take the dow down even further. Dow now down 50 points for more on this story, lets bring in the number one analyst on the street, Toni Sacconaghi toni, welcome. Thanks, scott. How worrisome is this if at all . Look, there has been speculation that the new high end o led iphone 8 phone would be delayed for the last six months, and i think the question has really been what might be the magnitude of the delay apples using a new Screen Technology, oled, that it hasnt used before. Theres been worries about how much supply of oled there ultimately might be which would dictate the pace at which the phone could become available, and theres been myriad reports about integrating the home button into that Screen Technology so this is not a new issue it certainly reopens the question of will apple have enough phones and when will supply beable to meet demand i mean, at what point do you sort of answer that question in your own mind and certainly in terms of where your own estimates would be, for what is the most critical selling season for this company and its much anticipated new product . Yeah. So, you know, the way that i think about it is if ultimately the phone is materially constrained once we start hitting the primary holiday season, so post november 15th, that is worrisome. And its worrisome because not only is our phones seasonally strong selling item in the Holiday Quarter for apple, but they are for the industry as a whole. Thats when people have time to go to visit a store, to look at phones, to work out what kind of plan they might have so seasonally on a global basis the Fourth Quarter is very, very important so if the phone is still significantly delayed and consumers believe that theyre not going to be able to get it until 2018 having placed an order potentially in september or october, i do think you run the risk that people will look to other devices if the phone is pushed out and delayed a month or two and apple is delivering them in reasonable volume by beginning of november, sure, my numbers for the december quarter would go down, but they would go up commensurately in the march quarter. And i dont think investors would have a problem with that where you run into the problem is is the delay significantly sufficient and frustrating for consumers that they start to look at other devices. So youre essentially saying they have a twomonth window if the phone goes on sale as expected on september 22nd as the journal says today, you said they have until mid november to make this right. So thats a reasonable amount of time to theoretically figure this out does that mean that theres no Material Impact on the stock as we see it today . I think if that were the case, there shouldnt be a Material Impact on the stock now, again, i would i would underscore that in the past apple has typically not reached supply demand balance on its new phones until january or february so its not uncommon you cant walk into a store typically in december and pick up the newest version of the iphone that day. Typically there might be a one or two or threeweek delay thats reasonable and thats expected what im talking about are outside delays someone places an order in september or october and doesnt feel like theyre going to get it for the holiday season. That would be really different from what weve seen historically for apple, and if thats the case, then i think we start to have net numbers go down if its just a shift from the calendar q4 to the calendar q1, investors, thats been a topic that is much debated in the Investment Community for the last six months and i dont think that would really have an impact on the stock. And ultimately if you get a price break on it, i would be using it as an opportunity to buy the stock. Toni, well make that a Perfect Place to end that conversation we appreciate you running to the phone for us well have to follow it to see exactly what happens well talk to you soon. Thanks. More breaking news from Kayla Tausche in washington, d. C. , for us kayla . Scott, the Washington Post is reporting that the president and democratic leadership in congress, notably minority leader Chuck Schumer in the senate, have reached what theyre calling a gentlemans agreement so that the debt ceiling does not get run into so frequently its unclear what the exact contours of such a deal would entail, but the post says that at least one of their sources says that the Vice President is open to changes along the lines of the gephardt rule which would basically make it easier to tie debt ceiling raises to Congress Passing a budget, but well see if the president or if the Senate Minority leader will have any specific announcement to that effect or whether the press office at the white house will comment on it any further today. Back to you. Didnt speaker ryan comment on this in the last hour or so saying he would be against Something Like that . Well, its unclear exactly what republican sway could be held at this point, scott, because yesterday speaker ryan said that such a deal to extend on a shortterm basis was unworkable, but then the president went and negotiated and agreed to that deal with democratic leadership anyway if the president feels hes made a deal, then he essentially is the last line of defense on this. Yeah. Interesting development. Kayla, thanks so much. Kayla tausche for us in the bureau Hurricane Irma steams towards the united states, we are closely watching forecasts and of course Commodity Prices especially orange juice, lumber and cotton dan leonard prices this storm, dan, does not look particularly good. It does not its still a category 5. Ill about be honest, this is one of the most impressive storms i have ever seen simply from a standpoint of duration of category 5type level winds. Its been a category 5 over 50 hours now, with no signs of letting. Over cuba, south of the bahamas, theres still a lot of warm weather. I dont see it any weaker than a category 4 as it approaches southern florida this is the key. This is really what we are concerned about. Right now theres two different scenarios, one that moves into the southern tip of florida, then up and west of miami. The model which has a good track record so far with this storm is suggesting just that scenario. Thats actually very unusual if you think of miami, typically a hurricane comes in from the east, there is a barrier island, miami beach, and it tends to protect the city since its coming from the southeast, that opens the door for a bigger storm surge especially if you have landfall near key largo or so the u. S. Model puts miami on the weaker side of the storm honestly, this is still three days out and there is a lot of time left to work on the track 50 3450i8s makes all the different here, and we just cant pin it down that good 40 to 60 hours in advance its just not possible all we know is it would be somewhere near miami within 50 miles on sunday morning were talking about futures, lumber commodities, orange juice futures, these are all very important commodities that traders are closely watching with the track of the storm. If it takes that slightly west track, look out for orange juice futures to rally big time as well as lumber if its a direct strike. If it stays offshore, not as bad and youll see the premium fallout bigtime. The other one to watch is cotton as it moves into the carolinas, a lot of big flooding expected in south carolina, north carolina, and parts of georgia dan, thank you very much. For more on Hurricane Irmas commodity impact, lets bring in sue herera. Hi, scott im filling in no jackie deainge his today, and well pick up where you left off orange juice futures on pace for the best week since april. Cotton is rallies, dan leonard just mentioned that. Lumber taye a leg higher jim iuorio is joining us and we have Brian Sutland jim im going to start with you. Remember, markets jobs when we saw there with gasoline in harvey is, is to price in somewhat of a worstcase scenario and work from there now to me we take out that 150 levels, its heading higher. The things that have moved orange juice over the past 10, 12 years is fascinating. Its had to to do with diseases, and at the same time dealing with a declining u. S. Demand hit on the supply side and demand side, and both of those things make for interesting price action. Brian, im going to turn to you now, what do you make of cotton and lumber . Thats definitely going to add some fuel to the fire. When you look at cotton and lumber, both those commodities were starting to bottom out and base, prior to the hurricane season, then you have harvey take out a huge amount of supply that was going on in some of the cottongrowing areas couple that now with earlier on the lumber side trumps tariffs that he put in canada, twerking some of the supply demand curve structure there. So we get this hurricane move through the west side like we heard and hit some of the lumber supplies in florida, youre looking a lumber moving higher, the longerterm trend orange juice has been bottoming so i think globally the demand is continuing to increase. Watch for prices to move higher. Gentlemen, thank you so much. Were going to continue the conversation on commodities on our live show at 1 00 p. M. Eastern time plus ryan dietridetrick, with a pattern that he uss suggests a stock market drop. Back to you, scotty. A quick break, final trades on the other side. Im here at the Td Ameritrade trader offices. 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Thats a basically get out of jail for free card people have been trapped in these trades for a while i think symantec is a better trade. You know i loves. Were seeing some paper d. And you see some Wells Fargo Bank of america is the one that stands out something to keep your eye on. Giddyap. Giddyout thats the new york version of giddyup. Thats more like taxi theyre buying the 50 calls out of the money just like this one, depression, multiple sclerosis, addictions, they do it pretty. The only person who votes for i like the steelers, too, by the way. Fce, its all very smart firms, they basically control the stock. Interest rates are great for this im going to mention alb go ahead. Honeywell. Good stuff. Thanks, guys power lunch starts now welcome, everybody to power lunch. Michelle, brian with me today. Power lunch begins with breaking news. Two big torrie we are watching of course you know about the hurricane. It is irma, barreling towards florida. The deadly now category 4 storm hammering the caribbean knocking out power, destroying 90 of the dwellings and buildings on the tiny island of barbuda. And these pictures out of st. Martin, many parts