Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg 20240702

And then we have the fullyear forecast of like industrial names you need in your portfolio. And wall street pessimism jamie dimon and others having sharing their view on saudi arabia. And good morning to you, im alix steel along with my cohost guy johnson. It is good data here in the u. S. Guy good data for the u. S. And not for europe. The pmi data, a real gap beginning to emerge in terms of economic performance. It will be fascinating to see how the ecb addresses that. But you have the story when you look at rtx, ge, and 3m today. All the stocks are doing well. It is fascinating. We talk about what is happening with the end industrial economy of the states and is it counting back . Alix above 50 and they are being rewarded for the beat. It is a story that is exacerbated by the positive data. Guy are we talking about this just because tech has not arrived yet . Alix probably. Guy they will be out later. Are the industrials in position where they can take in peoples portfolios . Will we see portfolios broadening out is the key question at this point . I think by the end of today we will know. Alix maybe or you need a more balanced portfolio that does not involve tech. And verizon did well on the s p 500, go figure. Guy the pmi data paints a interesting narrative in terms of the atlantic divide that is they are. Lets talk about the data that is happening. We have the analysis with Chris Williamson S P Global Market Intelligence chief is this economist. It is great to see you, the u. S. Data is holding up, the European Data is not. Talk with me about how big the divide is across the atlantic. Chris a widening when you look at the industrial sector as well thats where we see the vergence. Especially germany going downhill steeply in the fourth quarter. Dragging down the u. K. Data. And we have manufacturing down. And in the u. S. You have a rise in october. It looks like the u. S. Manufacturing sector is starting to turn a corner already. Much earlier than we would be seeing in europe and we have a long way to go in europe before we get the numbers in the positive territory. Alix does this data for the u. S. For a moment point to a soft landing in not just stabilization but in manufacturing, is that sustainable . Chris it is a soft landing, yeah, because we have a cooling of price pressures across goods and services. The rates have price growth and it is pretty consistent with the fed 2 target. The price growth is in line with the prepandemic coverage. It is a normalization of the inflationary environment we are seeing in the u. S. Now. At the same time, weve managed to avoid, so far, the contraction of the economy with manufacturing returning to growth. Still looking weak. The pmi survey and the s p 500 survey is the one of the weakest Economic Indicators much lower than gdp that weve got. While we pick up speed, it is still lackluster and risks show a tip to the downside with what we see geopolitically around the world. Guy so youre not convinced that the bottom is in for u. S. Manufacturing . Is that my take away from this or do you think manufacturing has trough to and the trough may be for with us for a while but a bounce back comes after that. Chris i think what we see here is signs that manufacturing has troughed. But the question is what happens to the Larger Service economy. Because now it still shows rate hikes to come. That sector lost a lot of momentum in comparison to vizard we had in the Second Quarter with the reopening rebound and the cost of living kicking off. That really helped growth early in the year and we have lost but now. And that is in the imf outlook as well. They were seeing the same picture where the consumer driven expansion early in the year, we cannot expect that to continue to drive growth as we go into 2024. What will drive that . Alix exactly. Chris yeah and when we turned the corner with that cycle, especially in the u. S. , but more broadly i worry about it. Alix this pairs up with that manufacturing data with the trough is in but that we could see the trough for a long time and that passes the baton to services. In europe, the services are not great. Guy the data in europe is not great right now. Alix this is certainly a vacation indicator for me. And taylor swift is going away. Will services hold up because of those things . Guy we will see of taylor swift has the same effect on the Services Data in europe. I think maybe peak swift may have passed as well. Alix what . Guy tough thing to say as well. Alix theres zero data to back that up. Guy in the u. S. It was booming time this summer and when she goes into europe where the summer boom has passed. I think the macroeconomic effect on the swift mate alix the macro to the swift is different than the macro in the u. S. Guy exactly timing is different. Chris, how do you react to the data that you are seeing here. Is this a signal to the ecb that theyve done enough . Is the data out of the u. K. A signal to the bank of england that it has done enough . Chris for the ecb and the fed, the suggestion here is that youve done enough. Inflation coming down nicely, to target in q1. Quite rapidly. Fading in the Service Sector which is a bit obvious in that area of concern, those elevated rates of inflation are continuing to come down. The demand environment is weak and it is not an inflationary demand environment, but that is ok. It is more mixed with the bank of england, yes, the overall inflation picture is moderating, but it is still looking sticky and around the 4 mark as you go into the end of the First Quarter of next year. Coming down, but not enough. It plays into the story that the bank of england rates will stay higher for longer. Alix as we wind up give me insight to the services sector. Europe and u. S. , what is leading the weakness . Moreover europe question, what is leading the weakness they are . Chris the weakness is the continued cost of living. The inflationary side as well as this big surge in spending earlier in the year. And it is payback time for that now. It is quite simply, we have all gone and spent our money, now we are tightening our belts. Alix are you saying peak swift . Guy peak taylor swift. There is no more money to be spent anymore. Money has been spent this summer it is done and over. You cannot spend money. Alix i am asking chris. You are not the peak audience, you could be saving for it i dont know. Are you peak taylor swift . Chris noahide think that we have seen the peak. Alix i like this conversation. On the counter indicator. Usually if i Say Something it is the opposite. Guy we apply that to everything it is usually the opposite. Alix dont you already argue that . Guy yeah but now im getting confirmation. Alix is an official road. Coming up we get the insight into the question of the day can industrials power your portfolio now . We speak with Emily Rowland at jh investment co. Chief investment strategist. This is bloomberg. The first thing i do when i wake up in the morning and i look at the markets is look at the 10 year. We see the 10 year move up so rapidly. Fundamentals, technicals have driven yields beyond where they should be. There are forces that are buffering the bond space. Uc supply come in and scare the bond vigilantes. With this risk it makes investors uneasy. Yields are higher and they will probably stay higher for longer, but the economy continues to do well. Central banks are concerned. The bond market is helping the fed slow the economy. It is doing some of their work for them, the yield. Unfortunately high uncertainty is a new normal. We are looking for rate stability. It is a time of dislocation and bond. You got to get through it. Alix those are guests weighing in on the bond market action. That leads us to the question of the day you have may you may have yields moving higher and it brings the question can industrials power your portfolio . We join Emily Rowland jh investments cochief investment strategist it is fun to talk about industrials. The main question of the day how long have they been in your portfolio and how much are they in your portfolio is to mark emily we like industrials right now portfolio . Emily we like industrials right now. We are watching those in the u. S. And we have supply chains move active u. S. Increasing recognition from ceos here that if you will sell something here you will increasingly make it here area we are also seeing almost an Industrial Revolution that is happening in the United States right now being held by fiscal spending. We can argue whether physical ending is appropriate right now fiscal spending is appropriate right now. But with what we see in the jobs act, chips act, Inflation Reduction Act or whatever you want to call it, all of those things supporting spending and ev production and semiconductor production. I see it in my travels throughout the United States, especially in the midwest. You can move down the market cap and industrial space to midcaps and capture the opportunity of where investment is going. We think that is a great place to think about allocating your portfolio as we head into next year. Guy emily, good morning it is guy. A lot of people have been intact and looking at the magnificent seven. We get many of these names over the next few days reporting. If tech stumbles, or industrials somewhere. You should look for an alternative. Should you think about rotating your portfolio out of tech into industrials . Should you think about abroad diversified portfolio in your equity book . Talk me through where we are right now, where we then, and where we are going and whether or not this is an inflation point. Emily yeah, we look at industrials and midcaps is a great way to diversify from the tech exposure. We been overweight Technology Stocks really primarily for the function of our preference for quality. Weve been looking first for sectors with good return on equity, low interest burdens, and frankly the poster child has been mega cap tech but when you look at the returns on the s p 500 theres a lot of ink spilled on this. 95 of them have been driven by the magnificent seven. While we look at mega cap tech that is protecting portfolios from a solvency risk we have to protect against valuation risk as well. What i did not mention about u. S. Mega caps is that they are trading at the most of the get discount to their largecap counterparts since the late 1990s. So, tech for solvency risk and midcaps for evaluation risk. Alix that is so interesting. If only hard heard the solvency evaluation, with that. With the industrials midcap, funding issues could be a problem, how do you manage that . Also, we heard from some of the big guys, like fast and all for example they have the order backlog because people do not want to leave the queue but the immediate orders might not be there. What do you make of that . Emily yeah i think you got to screen through Industrial Companies to find ones that are higher quality. We want to find again low debt burdens, we went to look for great balance sheets, we want to look for the companies that are really taking advantage of this again Industrial Revolution that is taking place in the United States. Looking for direct ties to the increase in semiconductor production, the increase in ev production, and identify the names that have direct exposure. Look, im not saying industrials will be completely immune to a downturn in economic activity, they are not. On a relative basis there is a pocket of value that can be uncovered. Guy in the bottom of the screen right now, uaw is announcing it will widen the strike. We see the news over the last 24 hours with stellantis as well. These big carmakers have big supply chains. They are may be the midcap industrial stock you are talking about. How are you thinking about the effect this strike will have. . Is it affecting the way you think about constructing your portfolio . Emily it is about screen screening for quality. With industrials we would it deemphasize that area. And from a economic standpoint we have to think about how the strike plays out in terms of corporate margins. What we see right now and one of the reasons earnings has been underwhelming is that we are starting to see evidence that corporate margins are getting compressed. We know the cost of capital is going up and we understand how it is impacting consumers. But it is impacting margins as we saw a response to the fiscal stimulus over the last few years. That is also coming down. What is happening is the cost of apple capital is going up and then it is normalizing and companies will need to contend with the margin pressure by cutting cost if they want to maintain profitability. The big cost that most companies have is labor. Strikes are coming in a difficult time as far as companies who are dealing with this margin pressure and potentially seeing a record wage growth starting to slow today. This is significant not only from a fundamental investment standpoint, but a macro perspective. Alix take us back to after the bell, guy is super pumped for alphabet and microsoft. I call it google here just so you know. Guy we all call it google but they call it alphabet. Alix just so you know. Anyway, the tech names if they disappoint you have to buy on the dip . Emily yeah, again, we are seeing strength here. It is what do you want to own on a relative basis in Economic Contraction . Our argument right now, you see this with the pmi data, the u. S. Economy is holding up best across the globe. That is our view for a long time and it is increasingly evident with this emerging pmi data we saw this morning. Ultimately the u. S. Economy will buckle in the face of higher Interest Rates. We do that coming and going forward. So it is what do you want to own on a relative basis highly cyclical assets, or things that we with the Economic Cycle in the contraction, probably want to underweight those things. Do you want to own things with great balance sheet, low interest burdens as we move into this contraction. They may not be completely insulated. In fact we think bonds are a bigger space in the portfolio here. But on a relative basis the mega cap tech names have the quality element we want to look for. One final thought, the magnificent seven, be careful, it is going across Consumer Discretionary Communication Services and the tech sector. Our favorite that has the most quality is your classic s p 500 tech sector. Alix interesting. Guy yes, alphabets what we will call it. Everybody called it google but now they call it alphabet. Emily thank you very much we did not talk much about bonds. We will definitely do that. The story did not go well but it is good to hear about the stocks every now and then. That was emily roland jh investment cochief investment. Strategist joining strategist joining us in boston. And then netflix, alpha, alphabets, we will review those coming up. This is bloomberg. The chase ink business premier card is made for people like sam, who make everyday products, designed smarter. Like a smart coffee grinder, that orders fresh beans for you. Oh, genius for more breakthroughs like that i need a breakthrough card. Like ours with 2. 5 cash back on purchases of 5,000 or more. Plus unlimited 2 cash back on all other purchases. And with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas a brilliant reality the ink business premier card from chase for business. Make more of whats yours. Encore energy, americas Clean Energy Company poised for production in south texas, energizing america with reliable and Affordable Nuclear Energy fuel with an environmentally friendly extraction process. Encore energy. Alix 22 past seven on the west coast. 7 22 on the west coast. We take you to london to talk about tech. Alix webb joins us now. We get alphabet, microsoft after the bell. What are you expecting and what are the big numbers . Alex the expectation is for Slower Growth with microsoft going below 10 . Similar with google, the cloud side, we hope there will be a slight expeller ration. There were bellwethers here. You have microsoft, google and the cloud. How much appetite is there really for ai applications . They both will be spending a huge amount of money to build up the hardware capabilities of their services in the data centers. In order to fuel that. And as we look toward the final quarter what is the outlook look like on that front . It is a bleeding edge when it comes to consumer demand. Our brands opening a checkbook again to on marketing in order that they can attract peoples hard earned dollars when it comes to the spendings. These are the two kind of the things we are looking at. Guy earlier this year, ai, the big story, the companies where the center of it. Is the narrative still they are . Is that something they can use to generate a positive spin around the figures or is that moment on . Alex well i mean, ultimately, that is a question, right . Im sure they would like to. The outlook for this quarter is what is going to be crucial on that front. Microsoft is really being leading the charge in this. They have a close relationship with ai. They have the biggest investment in openai that gives them certain access to some of the openai capabilities. Then if you want to use them and use gpt as a good incentive, you want to use microsoft because you have microsoft cloud. Google is also in the space very active. Theres a lot of things racing to get to the market and that is in order to catch up with what openai has been demonstrating. How those will be paying off, we dont know. There will be some clarity hopefully if you are an investor, at least, in these updates. They have been spending the money. That is why qualcomm i mean nvidia has seen a surge in revenue. They go into the data centers that will in theory fueled the ai revolution but you need the cloud capacity from google and microsoft for that investment to pay off. Alix before you go, when i look at google stock it is doing well compared to other tech names selling off in the past few weeks. Our expectations too high on the stock now . Alex i dont know about that. I have optimism around that market peace. You have two potentials for google, and it is the ai thing and spending as we head into christmas. Google is different from its competitors because it is the place where everybody does need to be. If youre in the business of selling almost anything at scale you need to be advertising on google. That is not necessarily the case with meta and it forms. Guy thank you setting us up for the numbers later on today. Bloombergs alex web. The Bloomberg Technology summit is happening today. We have great guests lined up. And next we will talk about safe haven assets. And james steel will join us from hsbc. That conversation is next. This is bloomberg. Alix we are about an hour into the trading session with ux u. S. Stocks getting a nice boost. A surprise to the upside for services and manufacturing. Abigail is checking this for us. Abigail the longest losing streak for the s p 500 going to december of last year we have a gain now must 1 up. And the nasdaq 100 as we have a week of earnings up 1. 3 . And china tech soaring up 4. 4 . A lot of strength on the emi numbers. It seems like good news is good news. Have positive earnings for the industrial space with it flipping higher on the year. 3m putting up a solid quarter. They beat the top and bottom line with the litigation they resolve is helping out. We have general election 43 46 probability they raise their outlook on demand in engines growth. And been atx corp. Up 6 and a 10 billion buyback. This has the industrial sector doing more than it did not do the pressed past two months we have again up 4 . We were looking at the longest losing streak going back to 2022, but turning around on earnings. And speaking of earnings, you were talking about the mega cap tech rep reading, microsoft and alphabet after the bell, both of the stocks up more than 30 on the year. Only the last week or so down a little bit. Maybe jitters with the yield bouncing around area both come, the cloud both companies, the cloud will be a big driver to see if there will be around rebound in strength as it ties into ai. And it will be interesting to see whether microsoft can talk of their revenue growth. The high single digit is ok, but not great. Alix we are looking forward to that after the bell. The macro is important. Wall street bankers are pessimistic about the future of the global economy. Tensions of the middle east are weighing on sentiment. Here is what many had to say in the Investment Initiative meeting in saudi arabia. You have monetary at, of conflict environment. We have the backdrop we all acknowledge the after map aftermath of the terrorist attack in israel and the events unfolding. It is sad. Longterm i am optimistic but im uncertain to uncertain right now. You would be foolish to not look at some of the things taking place today in ukraine middle east. You we will not see a hard or soft landing in 2024. The potential for persistent high Interest Rates in europe. When you look at the monetary policies we will see, they will have a greater effect on the world. You look at the world gap so it is difficult to be optimistic on that. Alix i feel the sun, very cheery from the comments. What about you . Guy they are all pessimistic. But they expect higher for longer and they are look at the geopolitical outlook and they say this does not look good right now. Alix it raises the question what you do and where do you go . That brings us to gold. I was covering gold 15 years ago and he wouldve thought with the headlines we get today it would be over 2000 in out but it is bumping against that and moving about. I want to ask james steel hsbc chief Precious Metals analyst. It is good to see you. Why is gold not higher right now . James geopolitical risk are higher for now that is true. But before this round of problems in the middle east, we have made it estimated that geopolitical risk accounted for 150 in the price of gold area when you look at gold. When you look at real rates, and how high the dollar has been, you look at the pullback of coin and bar buying and the pullback in central bank buying, compared to last year, it is not surprising that the gold is where it is. It really has one big driving force behind it which is geopolitics. A combination of the rest of it is somewhat negative. Guy two steels in one place. I would just want to point that out. If youre going to cover metals you have to have the name steel. It definitely works. If yields come lower, if you have hit peak yield, what is that due for the gold price . James theoretically yields would bring you down. But our view is that we are not going to see any fed rate cuts until the second half of the year in 225 basis points q3 and q4 and firm until then. Also, the yields are already very positive and one of the big disconnects we saw last year was that the real yield went positive in the at the bull market continue to rally. Because of buying and central bank buying. Both of those have diminished. So i would think there is room for yield to come down and yet for the gold market not necessarily to rally from here. Because theres already fat in that and it can still exert pressure. Guy he sounds scottish like the words we bit wee bit. Alix i lovealix that i have scottish background. It is interesting to me with etf buying. It is not that much compared to where it was. Is it a bitcoin thing . What you make of that . James its important to make that note. We have steady liquidation and etfs and most of the year until recently. The gold market was able to stay pretty strong. That is more evidence that the Institutional Markets is not really buying the rally. This is a verse gold rally of last year. The first one since the inception of etfs and we see etf demand has not risen so this is a big drag. And with your point about the physical demand, when you have 2000 you have well over 60,000 rupees for bar of gold in india which is the favorite bar and the second Largest Consumer of gold in the world Southeast Asia and china, very expensive. It has a good demand and it will hit more demand. I have been interested in the import data when it comes out. I suspect that we see drops in all of the major gold consuming countries and this tends to correct bull outlook. Guy our question of the day is about whether or not industrial should be in the portfolio. Lets extend that into the precious metal face. Should i not be looking at gold but the Precious Metals that have industrial capability . Should i buy silver over gold . Or others. Where should i look in the market, will i get a better return there and the strength of gold . James we are more positive on silver, platinum then we are than gold. In the case of silver theres enormous applications environmentally and silver in a tv, compared to a standard ice automobile. Alix battery electric vehicle versus internal combustion. James yes and the amount that goes into solar power with the peak demand. It is very strong. Everything is almost coded in a thin layer of silver. Even some jackets are sold in silver. As far as putnam and planing them go, even though we think palladium is headed into a small surplus next year, it is undervalued probably even considering with platinum. Platinum is gaining on plated automobiles and also has wide usage environmentally as well. That looks positive to me. Alix is there enough supply of silver as it clearly has been so expanded . James yes it is a great deal above ground and it can be recycled. It takes time, silver does not come onto the market in recycling nearly as quickly as higher gold rices bring gold onto the market. So it has to get above 25 to really increase the rhythm of recycling we are already seeing. Guy what impact does the dollar have from this point on . We see a strong dollar, it comes back to the yield story. You mentioned at the beginning you talked about the headwinds. Talk me through how big a headwind the dollar is. James the inverse relationship between dollar and gold is about the steadiest relationship you will get going right back to when it breaks down, by the way, both the dollar and the gold and to go higher. That is never good. That is never good because everybody is looking for a safe haven asset at the same time. We saw during, for a while, in ukraine, covid, the Global Financial crisis. Our view is the dollar will remain firm and strong to the end of 2024 which is why we think there will be weight on the gold price as the geopolitical move may come down a little bit. Alix what is the bottom for it . James our average this year is 19. 05 and that would put gold at 19. 30. Next year we look at it being at 18. 25 and the real yield slowing and the dollar weighing on prices. Guy two for the price of one, steels that im talking about here. I think you should start using words like we in your vocabulary. If youre going to push the heritage. Alix i think my grandfather played bagpipes. I think. Guy what an excellent instrument that is. Alix [laughter] guy thank you very much indeed. They give for stopping by. James steel, at hsbc. We turn to the story. Yields are expanding. Uaw says 5000 members at gm arlington larges plot will not be coming to work. Why does it mean and how does it affect the Industrial Supply chain . We will talk about that next. This is bloomberg. Is it possible to fall in love with your home. Before you even step inside . Discover the Magnolia Home james hardie collection. Available now in siding colors, styles and textures. Curated by joanna gaines. Abigail this is Bloomberg Markets youre looking at live pictures of the principal room. And Randy Quarles joins the conversation at 4 30 p. M. New york time. This is bloomberg. Im not sure that we will raise prices across the board after the First Quarter we raise guidance by 500 million on the line and now we raise it by 1 billion. We see a lot of stability in the market. We are taking it one day and month at a time and watching the results come in. Alix that was General Motors cfo speaking on bloomberg tv. And the they withdrew guidance around the uaw strike. Earlier they announced 5000 members will it joined the walkout strike. In joining us now is chief david welch. David, the numbers for gm were pretty solid. I feel like it is going to take gm back in their note negotiating position. Out of a not say no to the autoworkers when the numbers are solid . David they have a strong contract on the table. It is a record contract. Gm will come back with app of the union once more. And the president of the union says they are close to a deal, but he also told embers they have to be ready to walk out at any time because members they have to be ready to walk out because he said the last mile is the toughest one and you have to be vigilant to get it done. And theres more money on the table and thats what their going for. And the strong earnings told him that they do have more money on the table. Gm had a strong outcome. They beat estimates. All systems go from a Financial Performance perspective for the company, but they have a big strike and it is getting wider because the plan is very profitable. Guy isnt that the point, they waited and these are the most important areas they are now targeting and saving them for the last mile. In some ways, is this bad boot bad news good news signaling that we are seeing the final throw of the dice . David basically. I think so based on what everyone has said but they have moved the goalpost many times on this company and they will bring an offer, the other companies will match it and then he will move it again. The Companies Really have an issue with record profits. Or the unions do rather, every time they talk about it they say there is more money for us to come out of it. And so there is a push and pull where if you want to work a Successful Company but they want to share in that is much as they possibly can. And the better the results are, we will probably see resorts results in the quarter because a market has been fairly strong. And that will probably feet into the union push to get better contracts over the next three years. It will be pretty close to their going to try to get every bit they can. Alix funnily enough what i found interesting is part of uaw what they are working again is ev and the transition where they will need less workers. They have a stripe the spot where workers transition. Ev workers do not do well. They are not profitable and not selling well. And i wonder why . David why are evs not doing well . Alix yeah and what will turn that they have Government Support and they have the clear to build the factories. What is the problem . David the incentives will not kick in until january. They are still really expensive though and theres a lot of models available, but not compared to the rest of the market. What i keep telling people of why we do not have this growth, people are not unhappy with their internal can question internal combustion vehicles. You have to press them to buy an electric vehicle. Right now those who bought them are early adopters who Love Technology or have an environmental reason for buying the car and right now evs are so expensive they are luxury cars and luxury buyers want to have the latest thing so they have been buying them. Now companies are moving into the mass and these are peopled who do not have as much money to spend area the price on a new vehicle is already over 700 a month and ev is expected to be more than that and so the price stops a lot of people. And you have to have a stronger demand. And that is where we are where they are focusing on your average buyer. Guy its interesting to see how tough it is turning out to be. You look at how they are struggling with this story at the moment. Alix and it is 24,000 now guy but this is an expensive starting point for a small car. Alix and new. Evs are not clearly but it is new on how you use guy they are really expensive how you use it on an everyday basis. Guy they are really expensive. We will see what comes up next. We have bitcoin hitting a high since 2022. And we will see what drives that and then we have the wall street beat with shelley sonali and bloomberg tech summit where we have founder and ceo speaking with bloomberg carol hyde. There you go. Carol you outlined the market already. What has been the differences between of france and buying in the u. K. , are they different trends or are the consumers similar . They all really like burgers. I can tell you that. Outside of that, i think how use big to them and how they react to a loyalty g, sort of, what they care about in terms of, is a price they care about . An everchanging landscape comes with challenges. From our vantage point, we see opportunities. As a topten real estate manager, we harness the power of a 360 perspective, delivering local insights and global expertise across public and private equity and debt. Our experienced team and vast network uncover compelling opportunities giving our clients an exclusive advantage. Principal asset management. Actively invested. The chase ink business premier card is made for people like sam, who make everyday products, designed smarter. Like a smart coffee grinder, that orders fresh beans for you. Oh, genius for more breakthroughs like that i need a breakthrough card. Like ours with 2. 5 cash back on purchases of 5,000 or more. Plus unlimited 2 cash back on all other purchases. And with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas a brilliant reality the ink business premier card from chase for business. Make more of whats yours. Alix time for wall street week. We look at what is buzzing on wall street in the world of banking and finance. Interest we have the latest survey. Sonali basak has been digging through it what is the juicy stuff . Sonali bank of america had more position than others and that is a big deal. A lot of people are looking for since in the market and for bank of america to invest that much, the reason sale Side Research matters is because it fuels the equities business. It feels trading, and underwriting businesses. You watch bank of america in aggregate come out on top and we have mike will mike wilson on Morgan Stanley who won the strategist award here for the institution. I thought he has been wrong this year, hasnt he . Alix it is funny but he made that call earlier in the year. Sonali he doubled down on the bearishness that has not all played out. I think his contrarian view has been highly rewarded. He has been right about half the time when you look at his track record over the last five or six years. Guy is half the time good . Alix clearly it must be hes number one. Guy you get a hold of the narrative and it changes so fast in the market it must be so difficult for the analyst to have a call and stick with it. Sonali theres another funny element of this but there is the what is the role of this environment . We talk with the csuite people they say you have to get the best of the best and when there is not there is a i they can take out work in the research desk. Think about that shrinkage on the last few years on the sales side with mike wilson unit need to be top 10 or top five in the world or otherwise you need to start you start to wonder about the positioning for the sale side. Alix what about economists . Guy was talking all day yesterday about how economists dont matter and only airline ceos matter. Sonali they have a deep history at isi. 43 times out of more than 50 times that this survey has been done they are coming out on top. Keeping up with that is the name of the game on the wall street. Guy i want to get your take when you talk about crypto. And we get a take of what is happening. And oh my lord of a sound depressed in wall street right now. Sonali yes it is a dull drum time over there. When you look into next year, it is we were talking and commercial break. Not just the fact that rates are really soaring, it is also they are volatile. The 30 year has moved 20 basis points in a single day. For presumably the same asset safest asset in the world. What has been the weirdest haven of all havens this year is bitcoin. It is one of the bestperforming asset on wall street and now the hope of an etf. You look at the Bitcoin Trust alone. The last time i talked with you about this and have 50 discount to now and it is now down to express in. Guy that is better. Alix yeah but for reasons. An Appeals Court is telling us if you go back and review the etf application. There is a reason find it. Sonali its a strange dynamic. If you are a macro trader, it does bitcoin have a purpose here when you are worried about volatility . Weird, i dont know. Guy and then we have a story we were talking about earlier on with gold. Trying to find a place that you can hide. The bond market is not doing what you would expect it to do. It is not a safe haven so where would you go . Alix also if you want a book squaring and you have grayscale getting into an etf you do not own it. Guy and thats what we will get into overtime. Sequentially, you can see this, if grayscale is not first that will be fascinating. And answers will be coming very shortly. Sonali basak is going to be anchoring bloomberg crypto at 1 00 p. M. Today it will be fantastic to see how they cover the story because i think it is confusing. Anyway markets are next. That is what is happening right now in europe. This is bloomberg. An everchanging landscape comes with challenges. From our vantage point, we see opportunities. As a topten real estate manager, we harness the power of a 360 perspective, delivering local insights and global expertise across public and private equity and debt. Our experienced team and vast network uncover compelling opportunities giving our clients an exclusive advantage. Principal asset management. Actively invested. You want to be able to provide your child with the tools or resources they need. 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