Haidi welcome to daybreak australia. At the Parliament Building in wellington as we count on to election in new zealand. Annabelle we are looking ahead to asias major market opens. Shery good evening from uber headquarters in new york. U. S. Stocks and treasuries fall after the latest cpi figures boost to pets another fed rate hike this year. President biden set to make a formal request for more foreign aid next week as israels war with hamas rages on. The u. S. And qatar are holding off a disturbing 6 billion in funds to iran. Haidi we are live in wellington ahead of the vote on saturday. The polls showing new zealands Main Opposition Party is poised to form a centerright government. Australia looks likely to reject an indigenous voice to parliament after a campaign that has descended into division and allegations of racism. Shery u. S. Futures coming online in the asian trading session. Muted after we sell stocks and treasures falling in tandem today. We had bank stocks also underperforming ahead of wall street giants. We are expecting wells fargo, j. P. Morgan and citi among those reporting on friday. We are following the treasury action. A selloff reigniting with a 10 year yield headed towards for. 7. The 30 year yield also searched. We had a weak auction on the securities fueling the moves. We continue to watch oil prices because they were pressured in the new york session. We are seeing a rebound past the 83 a barrel level. In the asian trading session, the u. S. Dollar gaining ground for the first time in days. The best day in five weeks given the rising yields. We had u. S. Crude stock showing signs of strength and buildup. Following closely the u. S. Inflation numbers should cpi data coming in hotter than expected. Core cpi, headline cpi coming in above expectations. A super court of bloomberg calculations. Also coming in at the highest level in a year or so. We continue to watch these price pressures on what that will mean for where the fed goes from here. I know where you are, costofliving pressures are top of mind. Haidi and of course as we have been talking at length, the are bnc, we have been watching this from the start of the ratesetting cycle. They have been at the forefront of the tightening cycle. In a lot of ways seen as the canary in the coal mine and a terms of where they go next. Darby and z has seen positive signs. We had inflation falling in september to a 14 month low. There are concerns. Energy costs, a wave of immigration expected for australia and new zealand should that is likely to cure inflation when it comes to rent and or link and abode prices. This selection is fascinating trade compared to 2017 and 2020 at the height of jacinda mania, this is a much more different election. A lot of consultants are saying this is more policybased should it is not personality based and what that means for turnout given we dont have mandatory election voting, it is going to be interesting. It still does look like an upset when it comes to the current labor government voted out and the National Party being voted in. How that government is form is going to be key. It is looking like they will need the support of smaller parties. What the smaller parties will want as concessions could have implications for markets of the economy. Will be getting insights throughout the course of the day. Talking to brad olson later in the day about the economic side of things as we head into that vote on saturday. Shery of course we continue to watch the macroeconomic picture of the backdrop of those elections. In the u. S. , rate hike bets are back in coin flip territory. The cpi number bolstering speculation the fed is nowhere near declaring victory over inflation. Lets bring in our Global Economics expert in her chief rates correspondent for asia. I was trying to explain where cpi was. Whether it was hotter than expected or not. There are different measures. There is a headline number, the core cpi number. Lay it out for us. There are several ways to slice and dice this but the bottom line is the Inflation Numbers we got today does show the inflation story has not gone away completely. We see ongoing pressure from the cost of shelter, things like Car Insurance and energy costs. The cost of filling your car up at a pump pushing up the head ryan the headline of inflation. Entering the services the goods story continues to show inflation. Within that makes the fed have a measure they like looking at which a super court measure showing inflation remains outside of their band to inflation is broadly headed in the right direction but it is not there yet and that is why people are saying it is keeping alive the option of one more rate hike. Haidi future implications when it comes to the treasury market and the momentum we see in trading. Exactly. Shery was talking about what rights traders are looking like. I almost like to say a rate hike is back on the table is what the market is saying whereas before it was on the sideboard should that is focusing on traders minds on the potential they have again got it wrong when they started betting the fed is done and they can begin anticipating where the fed will start to ease policy. Instead we are back in the midst of the tightening cycle adding to the dangers is the way so many investors have been piling in to the long end. There was a good story out overnight looking at the way the biggest etf for treasuries which covers long treasuries has had a record amount of money flow into that. That is because of the anticipation once yields start to fall those will bring huge gains. So far what investors are getting is huge losses. That sort of danger where you think you are on a good risk reward set up because yields are high, durations are a place to be because once yields peak and come down, that is where the gains are, that also means you are in the most dangerous spot if you have time to it wrong trade so far the bond market timing has been pretty appalling this year. Shery we saw immediately the equity Market Reaction. When we go back to the 70s and early 80s, it was the last time inflation was as volatile and as high as it has been recently. We find is there is a tight relationship between stocks and cpi. It is almost as if stocks take their cue for direction from the cpi prince. We saw cpi hit some sort of nearterm low in june. It is no mistake that has impacted the equity market. We have seen the equity market struggle starting late july and early august. Any sort of news that inflation is reaccelerating does tend to weigh on equity Market Sentiment just like it did in the 70s and 80s. It is almost a onetoone relationship should the equity market is unhappy with acceleration and inflation for a lot of reasons. Because of the inflation volatility and the uncertainty it implements on businesses and business decisionmaking, the uncertainty a brace to the Business Cycle at large, it does way on equity Market Sentiment. Haidi along with this runup in bond yields is the question how much this has offset the need for further fed tightening. At the same time, it creates more of a possibility of directing the soft landing. We heard from the boston fed president. Take a listen. The rise in longterm yields applies some tightening of financial conditions and if it persists, it likely reduces the need for further Monetary Policy tightening in the near term. This reinforces my view we are near and perhaps at the peak federal funds rate for this cycle. Haidi there is this acknowledgment and the less few days the path is looking less clear now. Gets complicated from here. The Inflation Numbers today on a score that yes inflation has come back a long way from the highs of last year but getting a back to 2 is going to be the hard part especially when you see headline inflation ticking up. It is a reminder the pressures have not gone away. The fed are in a bind. To the guy with do they go with one more hike or to the step back and say look at what the markets are saying and allow that to do the tightening for them . The fed are clearly cognizant of this. They keep using the word cautious. I think that is why as we head into the end of the year with the november and december meeting it is going to be a big call for the fed whether they can with one more hike to get inflation back to where it should be or let the markets do the job for them. Haidi what are the applications of Global Equity because it does not seem what we want most as investors. It is not likely that is going to be the best case 10 i think that is very fair. What that inflation has been reflecting is the acceleration of oil prices. That does have implications for global stocks. Country rotation within the Global Equity market. We have seen over the last three months estimate revision favoring the markets that have greater concentrations of energy stocks. Segments of the Global Equity market like brazil, saudi arabia , canada, australia tend to have greater revision momentum when the broader commodity complex is rallying as Energy Rallies it does tend to in earnings improvement for the general groups should what it does on the other hand as suppresses earnings expectations for the groups that dont have as much Energy Concentration should the groups that are more exposed to margin pressures that emerge as the input costs are rising. We are seeing things like europe has deteriorated over the course of the last three months. Pmis in europe are in negative territory. Suggesting a weakness that has emerged that did not exist earlier this year. Some of the other markets that are big energy users are certainly at risk when inflation is reaccelerating especially when inflation is reaccelerating you to oil price we acceleration. Shery and of course that hurts consumers and people who feel not just at the pumps. What does that mean for banks in terms of potentially a risk of more bad loans they have to deal with as we head toward earnings season and the Big Bank Earnings . One thing to watch in the upcoming earnings season as the loan quality. Loan quality is deteriorating slowly but the appetite for new loans has basically dried up altogether. That is creating complications for the banks. When we look at the broad landscape of the Financial Sector, we see a couple of things as important to watch coming into the earnings season. Topline Revenue Growth as one of those things. If banks dont see loan growth, it is not great for the Financial Sector at large. Youre not getting a lot of Revenue Growth. They will have to cut costs in order to sustain earnings targets. That the second thing to watch for, costcutting. What will that mean for the longerterm economic and equity Market Outlook if the banks start to lay off to try to right size there operations with a slower pace of Revenue Growth. Mostly the financials have been stable in terms of earnings. Surprisingly so considering all the risks have emerged over the last years. From a sentiment perspective, investors are skittish and worried about what is happening in the banking sector. Also because of what is happening in commercial real estate is creating a lot of concern. Certainly what is happening with the movements in the bond market and what that might mean for unrealized losses. Lots of things to watch in the upcoming earnings season. Shery lets turn to belle for what we are expecting across asia. Annabelle listening to what garfield said, i like his analogy for the u. S. Inflation print. What it means for the fed and the risks the rate hike for november is back on the table now. Given the high risk that has come through the charts of it being priced in, you are seeing it reflected across a number of asset classes. Take a look at the japanese yen. Very close to the 150 mark. The yen weakness rate differential between the bank of japan and the fed. Have in the bond space the moves in yields pushing higher pin take a look at the thirtyyear led by the longer end of the curve. Similar to what we saw in treasuries. Equities unsurprisingly pointing to a drop for most of the markets in the region. You can see pointing to declines of 8 10 of 1 . It is not just a story of inflation data in the u. S. Looking ahead to chinese inflation that is due later this morning. Cpi, ppi, the story in china is different. Cpi expected to still be hovering around the zero mark should ppi still in deflationary territory other we are expecting the losses to continue moderating for a Third Straight month. The question is one we are going to start to see policies to stimulate demand and try to boost growth. Whether that is going to start to lift prices. Over Bloomberg Economics team telling us you need more time for this to play out. There expecting inflation pressures to stay subdued for quite a period. Chinese inflation data when we are going to be watching. Haidi such an interesting feature. Still ahead on daybreak australia, will be hearing from ubs Global Wealth management why they are bearish when it comes to Global Real Estate and the west when it comes to energy. Plus the u. S. And qatar to hold off amid a probe into tehrans potential involvement in the potential attack. We get the latest next. This is bloomberg. Is it possible to fall in love with your home. Before you even step inside . Discover the Magnolia Home james hardie collection. Available now in siding colors, styles and textures. Curated by joanna gaines. If it turns into a wider conflict and that causes oil prices to go up, that does have an effect on the economy. Probably hit the economy especially oil prices. We dont see that yet in the numbers. We dont see major impact in oil prices for the moment but this is of course increasing the uncertainty. We have to recognize uncertainty is not going to go away. There are so many moving parts. What i can say to you is the jump on the inflation front is not yet done. When you look at the numbers, suppose Oil Prices Went up 12 , then 12 months later you see inflation going up by. 4 percentage points. Global output lower by. 15 percentage points. We need to continue to monitor the situation so that we can act. I acting i mean adjusting the rates according to what is needed. Haidi guests giving their outlook on the israel hamas war. Reaching a understanding with qatar. The u. S. The white house said to be probing irans potential involvement. Jodi schneider joins us. What is the understanding that has been reached between the u. S. And qatar over what happens to the oil revenue . It is as you have just stated that they will hold off on releasing those funds. That is the money from the oil revenue under the prisoner deal the u. S. Made a month or so ago that they were supposed to be able to use iran was supposed to be able to use for humanitarian purposes. But right now, it is an informal agreement. It is not a freezing of the money as some republicans who obviously have criticized the deal have said. But it is lets hold off iran will not get this until it is investigated what role iran might have played in hamass attack on israel. The u. S. Is Still Standing by the Biden Administration is Still Standing by its statement they have no hard evidence of direct involvement of iran in the attacks even though of course i ran has been a supporter of hamas, a longtime supporter and therefore may have been complicit in these attacks. That certainly could be the case but no hard evidence according to the administration has been found of that direct link. We have had plenty of republican lawmakers on capitol hill trying to make the case the administration by it making that deal and allowing the funding to go to iran, that there was some complicity in that, but the administration is saying no money has been spent and they will make sure it will not be spent. Although it is an informal agreement with qatar. Shery theyre trying to get spending money in order to not only israel but ukraine at least. How difficult could this path get given the divisions in congress . I went first to need a House Speaker for any of that to happen. Basically it sounds like the administration is going to request next week an emergency funding package. And emergency foreign aid package that would include money for israel. That would include money for ukraine. That is something that has been contentious on capitol hill. And perhaps for taiwan and some republicans want to see border money as well. It will be interesting with the shape of the package will be. We are hearing from Administration Officials they are working out the shape of the package but they expect that request to go to capitol hill next week. Right now the house of representatives does not have a speaker. They can do no legislative business on the floor until they have one. The senate has been on vacation this week. They will be back from the recess next week. You can imagine there will be a fair bit of pressure if that request comes over. There will be a fair bit of pressure to be able to consider it in both chambers of congress. Shery bloombergs political news director jodi schneider. You can get a round up of these stories you need to know in todays edition of daybreak. Terminal subscribers go today bigo. You can customize your settings so youll get the news on the industries and assets you care about. This is bloomberg. We all work differently now. So cdw helped us deploy mac, supercharged by apple silicon. Builtin security protects me from malware and forgotten passwords. Ive got enough battery life to get me halfway around the globe. And lower overall costs leave more money in our budget. For more practical furniture . This was supposed to be hip. No. Can you help me up . With mac, configured by cdw, a solution that works for everyone isnt just possible, its powerful. Haidi the imf says it is monitoring the conflict between israel and hamas and its impact on Global Energy markets. The latest on the blocks annual meeting in marrakech. On day four of the imf annual meetings, the managing director said the ongoing israel Hamas Conflict dims the Global Outlook and its effect in particular on oil markets is of concern. Conflict is top of mind for leaders gathered in america as they plan to tackle financing towards growth, development and prosperity for lower income countries. The managing director says she is in close discussions on egypt and ensuring its success. I africa directory echo the comics on thursday and called on International Resources and support nations facing a funding squeeze. On the issue of debt restructuring, limburg reporting is suggesting there may be an impasse between creditors and the potential for a breakthrough may be slim if it is not ironed out between china and the lenders. Shery u. S. Futures muted early in the Asian Session after we sell stocks in treasuries falling in new york. We have more data bolstering speculation of the fed not being completely done when it comes to reining in inflation. Not to mention bancshares underperformed ahead of earnings. Data on u. S. Cpi numbers coming in slightly hotter than expected. We have more to come. This is bloomberg. Loving this pay bump in our allowance. Wonder where mom and dad got the extra money . Maybe they won the lottery . Maybe they inherited a fortune . Maybe buried treasure . Maybe it fell off a truck . Maybe they switched to Xfinity Mobile on the most reliable 5g network. For a limited time, buy one line of unlimited, get one free for a year. Now i can buy that electric scooter im starting a Privateequity Fund that specializes in midcap. You do you. Switch to Xfinity Mobile today. This report im still very optimistic that inflation is coming down. I dont think it changes anyones view at the fed. It puts back on the table one more rate hike. May be december. The market has been excessively focused on how high and we should be focused on how long. Is being in restrictive territory that matters. Talk about the last mile being very difficult. We estimate how hard its going to be to go from 4 to 2 . It will be a really tough battle to get it back to 2 . Clearly not a cut in the next six months. The hurdle to cut is much higher than to raise. Our next guest expects inflation to moderate. Senior u. S. Equity strategist at ubs management. Does this mean you are not necessarily expecting another rate hike from the fed . Guest we dont think so. We cannot rule it out, but we think the fed is done hiking. We been watching the tighter financial conditions and we think that is doing some of the work for the fed. We heard governor daily echo that. We think the fed continues to see the need to proceed. If conditions remain at these levels, they will dampen aggregate demand. It should be no surprise that the fed wants to maintain the flexibility and optionality around an additional rate hike given the fact that inflation could stall out at a higher level. Its much easier to tilt hawkish in an environment where Economic Growth is strong. You can dollar back. Shery what is the outlook when it comes to treasury yields and how much pressure that will put on the stock markets . Guest we think that bond yields will decline. Its possible that the 10 year yield could hang out in the 4 four. 5 range. We think you will get that by the end of the year. We think the 10 year yield can get back toward 4 toward the end of the year. We are looking for the economy to slow down. Then looking into june of next year, we are looking for the 10 year yield at 3. 5 . The volatility in the bond market just like we saw today creates angst in the equity market, but i would say a lot of the movement in the yield that we saw today was less about cpi and more about the week 30 year treasury option. You saw the equity market turn lower in the afternoon new york trading time. Haidi what do you like across energy the moment and how long do you see this momentum particularly as we have conflict ongoing in the middle east as well as concerns over the demandside question mark guest you have seen weakness in the Energy Sector of late. We continue to like these areas of the market. We think it can get back to 95. We think that saudi arabia will hold on in terms of constraining supply and manned picture remains strong. We think that brent oil will be at 95 for much of 2024 and this should be positive for the Energy Sector. We are already seeing earnings revisions happening. We expect that to continue throughout the earnings season and that should be supportive to the center. The sector, we like the mps as well as oil services companies. Haidi talk to me about tech at the moment. With all the uncertainty when it comes to where rates go from here, are you still selectively looking at tech at ship perhaps ai related names . Guest absolutely you see volatility in tech recently. The headwind from higher bond yields, with that is done to valuation. We are neutral on top tech but think this pullback presents pockets of opportunity. We think the outlook for tech has improved. Also stabilization in the week consumer demand trends we have been seeing for much of the last year. Pcs and smartphones should start to stabilize next year. We want to remain selective within tech. We still favor Software Hardware and with a focus on ai implementers. Beyond that, selectively being key we want to focus on those companies that have high margins , durable and growing earnings with exposure to Disruptive Technologies and also Leaders Within their own space. I want to highlight as well we see opportunities in cybersecurity. We think this is the more defensive growth area of tech. We contingency increased demand as governments and Companies Continue to see the need to protect themselves and their data from cyber threats. This only becomes more highend in this geopolitical tension environment. Haidi always great to chat with you to get your views. Stay with mark reaction Market Reaction to the u. S. Cpi number. Its really about the moves in treasuries mentioning the week manned for the 30 year option. The front end of the curve, we saw the two year yield pushing back above 5 . The message that is being digested is that the that will need to be staying higher for longer. Its about the changing expectations once again that we could see the fed hike for november back on the table. The question is if you are in that environment up higher for longer, does that diminish take away from the odds that had been seen for the chance of a soft landing for the u. S. Economy . This has been a key talking point at the imf and World Bank Meetings this week in marrakech and morocco. Bloomberg spoke exclusively with the santander chairman and this is what she said. Guest there are increasing signs that a softer landing is possible. There risk to that, but there are many signs. Not the same in all countries. The u. S. Is incredibly resilient and the good news is we are seeing investment by businesses. It is different depending on the regions. Also the sectors. Manufacturing is suffering more than services. Shery weve also heard from bill winters. Where does he stand when it comes to this rate debate . He was at the same event. Another exclusive interview. His deal was that the fed needs to hike another 25 basis points. Listen to this exclusive. Guest right now given the strength of the u. S. Economy, it doesnt look like we will be higher for longer and rates. Inflation will bes sticker and sticky and this will compound the pain. Shery coming up, our guest joins us as new zealand heads into a weakened weekend general election. This is bloomberg. Haidi new zealand is heading to the polls on saturday. Costofliving concerns are front and center. Joining me is a director law firm. Its fascinating when you compare 2017 and 2020. Its much more of an issues driven campaign and election. Guest absolutely, much more policy driven. Postcovid time for new zealand has been tough and our economy is struggling. People are feeling that significantly with high inflation. Haidi high inflation is a global issue. There are some signs that inflationary pressures when it comes to food might be easing. What sort of policies do you think will go to the core of were addressing these issues . Guest there is no shortterm solutions to getting inflationary pressures under control. You see that Opposition Party pushing hard on executing the accounts of the Government Back in track getting them under control and reducing Government Spending. See labor go more toward Household Budget trying to cut the goods and services tax on fruit and vegetables in the supermarkets. Haidi if you look at polling, we are expecting the labour party not to be reelected but what the path to government for the National Party will be interesting. Do you have any insight into what incentives the smaller parties will want to get out of this partnership and how that path will look . There are concerns. Guest it cant be ruled out because of the minor party roles. For us in new zealand, a Coalition Government is almost always necessary to have. After saturday night while we might have a party that has the highest party votes, it may not mean that they are in a position to form government because of the fact that we have to negotiate and speak to the minor parties. This minor parties that look likely is the ex parte aligned with national to the right. For the new Zealand First party, they are more nationalistic. Its unclear at the bottom lines will be but very experienced leader at the head of new Zealand First so it will be interesting negotiations. Shery tell us about what we can expect in terms of issues being diluted once you get a Coalition Government. What the two parties, the main contenders right now stand for and perhaps the bottom line. Guest i think its important to recognize in new zealand that both our major parties are what would be seen as traditionally left of center. They are doing market interest tech policies but the key negotiation between the policies is about Government Spending and tax. Next where you are seeing the discussion happen. In terms of diluting some of those policies into negotiations, i think on the right if you look at the right block national new Zealand First, its unlikely that those issues will change. On the left, the labor greens possibly new Zealand First again coalition, thats up for grabs because those parties are pushing for significant increase in Government Spending whereas the labor government is realizing the need to trim the sales a little bit. Haidi you are a big focus fan a focus on policy not personality. Does that get turnout . Guest absolutely and this looks like its going to be a low turnout election. If weve had a very popular leader like our previous Prime Minister people are now really seeing that they need policies and things to change for their own households to get better thats what policy has become more in the forefront in this election than previously. We cant ignore the fact that we have two leaders. Haidi thats a huge change in terms of what we had in 2017 and 2020. Great to have you with best. Talking about some of the compelling aspects of this election, the fact that we still have expectations of low turnout. The recent polls saying one third of voters are undecided. We might see low numbers compared to the last two elections. Its kind of a democratic doublebill. Another key vote is happening this saturday. Australians will head to the polls to vote in the referendum on whether to enshrine an indigenous voice to parliament in the constitution. If the yes side is successful, it would advise the government on issues that would impact aboriginal australians. Polling suggests that that issue is headed for defeat. Paul has more. Early voting has been underway for a few days in australias voice referendum. It poses a simple yes no question on a proposed law to alter the constitution to recognize the first peoples of australia by establishing an aboriginal islander voice. Guest i ask all australians to vote yes. Paul the Prime Minister is delivering on an election promise by holding this referendum. Indigenous australians are overrepresented in almost every poor statistic imaginal including poverty, shorter life expectancy, lower academic achievement and higher incarceration rates. Guest a country that hears my voice. Paul the voice is intended to help remedy these problems. It would directly advise the government on what the communities need. Yes makes it possible. Paul polls show support for the vote trailing nationwide. Referendum questions are simple, but the campaign is used this to start out over a lack of detail and reach of the function of the voice warning that it risks aggravating racial division. If you dont know, but no. Paul referendums are rare, successful ones are even rarer. On the eve of the vote, the voice is on track to join the long list of defeats. Shery paul is with us from sydney. With the latest polling and can the yes vote get over the line . Paul at this stage, it seems very unlikely that this referendum will be successful because for it to succeed, you need a double majority. Unity yes vote nationwide then a majority of the states also have to vote yes. Nationally, we have all polls with yes trailing by various amounts. You need four out of six states, right now its one out of six only in tasmania does the yes vote have the lead. If we look at indigenous australians, they make up 3 of the population. One poll shows 59 support for the yes Campaign Among indigenous australians and that is down from 80 in january. This all indicates how hard it is to win a referendum in australia. Just eight of 44 held since federation have been successful. The last one to remove the british monarch as head of state. That one failed also. The president spent a lot of Political Capital campaigning for yes. Haidi we have more ahead here on daybreak. This is bloomberg. Shery the popularity of bts has pushed hype to the top of the industry and south korea. The hype founder and chairman wants to replicate the groups success. He spoke to us exclusively about his vision. [speaking another language] [speaking another language] are you using this as a Super Technology . Do you have plans to scale up the business . [speaking another language] u. S. Partners . Global partners including u. S. You shared with us that you have found some ways and a fiveyear roadmap for the company. Would you please share updates or details about the plan . [speaking another language] [speaking another language] [speaking another language] haidi that was the founder and chairman of hybe speaking exclusively to bloomberg. Daybreak asia is next. This bloomberg. An everchanging landscape comes with challenges. From our vantage point, we see opportunities. 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